Al McMordie
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes plus the points over LSU, as the Bucks fall into 33-25 and 31-16 ATS systems of mine. But the reason I like Ohio State in this game comes down to coaching, and rushing offense/defense. From his days at Youngstown State to the present, there has not been a more successful Championship coach than Jim Tressel. He's been here before, and his decision-making is much better than Les Miles, who often acts like a riverboat gambler (recall his decision to throw into the end zone vs. Auburn, instead of kicking a game winning FG). I do like Bo Pelini, however, but the LSU defensive coordinator may have been a bit distracted these last few weeks since he's off to become Nebraska's head coach after this game. The Buckeyes completely shut down Michigan at the end of the season, and held the Wolves to 3 points (but that Michigan team put up 41 vs. the SEC's Florida Gators). Overall this season, Ohio State allowed just two rushing touchdowns (and those two scores came in games OSU won by a combined 39 points)! Just two rushing TDs?! That's mind-boggling. On the offensive side of the ball, OSU has RB Chris Wells, perhaps the best RB in the nation in the 2nd half of the season. Wells got 222 yards against Michigan, 221 vs. Michigan State, 169 vs. Wisconsin, 133 vs. Penn State, and 76 vs. Illinois (but OSU was playing from behind, and had to throw the ball). LSU has shown a tendency this year to give up a lot of rushing yards. It surrendered over 150 to Florida and Ole Miss, and 385 to Arkansas! With the spread being more than a field goal, we'll take the Buckeyes
Bryan Leonard Bowl GOY
REASON FOR PICK: LSU (-3.5) over Ohio State
Having this game played so late in the season gives us a two fold edge for the Tigers. First off is one which is often talked about and that is the lack of a conference tournament in the Big 10. That means Ohio State hasn’t played since November 17th while LSU played on December 1st against Tennessee. We saw last year what such a long layoff could do to a team and Ohio State falls into the same scenario again this season. The second edge is the so called hype edge. Before the bowl parings were finalized everyone couldn’t wait to bet against this overrated Buckeyes squad. Once it was known that they would oppose LSU everyone we talked to here in Las Vegas assumed the line would be 7 points. Well the line opened at LSU favored by 6 and all the money has since come in on the Buckeyes. Face it, we all love to root for the underdog and there have been plenty of feel good stories about this Ohio State team. A common theme is that last year was an anomaly and they won’t make the same mistakes again. But the truth is that last year’s Ohio State team was much better than this year’s version. Sure the 2007 version has the better defense but offensively this team isn’t even close to the talent they had on hand a year ago.
One of our favorite handicapping angles during bowl season is to play on a team who is playing in their home state. It’s been a long time winner and this year once again it has provided a nice 3-2 60% payback. Teams simply are more comfortable playing near their home and the LSU Tigers are very familiar with the Superdome. The Tigers were the preseason favorite along with USC to win the national title. But injuries hurt both those teams as the season progressed. But now LSU is as healthy as they have been all season, and we have already seen what USC has done when getting their injured back in the lineup.
We give the Ohio State defense a slight edge in this match-up as LSU also brings to the table an excellent defense. But offensively the Tigers are much better. The dual threat behind center should really give the buckeyes fits. Hey buckeyes fans remember Juice Williams? While Ohio State enters this game as the underdog it’s LSU that has more to prove. All season long they were thought of as an underachieving group. Now in their own backyard they can prove their worth.
PLAY LSU
THE SPORTS REPORTER
BEST BET
OHIO STATE over LSU by 10
OHIO STATE, 27-17.
Dr. Bob
I have a Strong Opinion on the Under (47 1/2) in the BCS Championship game and no opinion on the side.
It’s pretty well known that Ohio State is 0-9 lifetime in bowl games against SEC teams, including last year’s humiliating loss to Florida in the BCS Championship game, but that really doesn’t mean much to me. The SEC is perceived to be a much better conference than the Big 10 in recent years, but Big 10 teams are actually 6-4 straight up and 7-3 ATS against SEC teams in bowl games the last 4 years (1-1 this year with Wisconsin losing to Tennessee and Michigan beating up on Florida). The fact that Michigan beat Florida despite being -4 in turnover margin is an indication that the difference between the quality of the Big 10 and the SEC isn’t as much as it is perceived to be. So, forget about the hype of the SEC being a dominant conference and focus on the teams. My math model adjusts for strength of opponents, which is affected by the strength of the conference a team plays in and the math on this game reveals that Ohio State was no worse than LSU this season.
The question is whether Ohio State can compete with LSU in this game, as the Tigers are healthier on defense and at the receiver position than they were for parts of the regular season. LSU’s offense was very inconsistent this season, playing 4 games in which they averaged less than 5.0 yards per play and having 4 games in which they averaged 7.0 yppl or more. Overall the Tigers averaged 6.1 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team. The rushing attack was outstanding, averaging 236 yards at 5.9 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 4.6 yprp), but quarterback Matt Flynn was mediocre. Flynn averaged only 5.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback and the Tigers appear to be a better team when Ryan Perrilloux is at quarterback. Perrilloux averaged 8.4 yppp on 79 pass plays this season (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp) and that includes 7.6 yppp in the SEC Championship game against Tennessee when Flynn was injured (Tennessee would allow 6.3 yppp to an average team). Flynn was hindered a bit by early season injuries to the receivers Demetrius Byrd and Early Doucet, as Byrd missed games 1 and 4 and Doucet was out for 5 games from game 3 through 7. Flynn’s numbers were better from game 8 on when his entire receiving corps was intact, as Flynn averaged 6.5 yppp his final 5 games against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average QB. I’ll assume that’s the level Flynn will play in this game and that Perrilloux probably won’t see much time, unless the Tigers need him near the goal line for a running option. Overall the Tigers rate at 1.0 yppl better than average on offense heading into this game.
Ohio State’s defense rates at 1.9 yppl better than average, yielding just 3.6 yppl for the season against teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit. Ohio State completely shut down every better than average pass attack that they faced this season, and only Illinois averaged more than 5.0 yppp against the Buckeyes. The reason that the Illini managed to average 6.0 yppp was because they couldn’t sack the mobile Juice Williams (Williams averaged only 6.4 yards per pass attempt but was sacked just once). Matt Flynn is not that mobile, so he won’t be able to buy time to find open receivers and there won’t be too many open receivers for Flynn to find. Flynn had mixed results against the good pass defenses he’s faced this year, averaging 8.8 yppp against Virginia Tech and 8.1 yppp against Auburn, but managing just 3.0 yppp against South Carolina and 3.2 yppp against Kentucky. Ohio State’s pass defense is so much better than any team that LSU faced this year (the Buckeyes allowed just 3.6 yppp to teams that would average 6.2 yppp), but Flynn is capable of posting decent numbers and is also potentially going to be horrible. LSU’s offensive production will probably depend on their ability to run against an Ohio State defense that gave up just 3.6 yards per rushing play (to teams that would average 5.1 yprp against an average defense). Ohio State played two teams that are very good running teams and the Buckeyes gave up a combined 5.1 yprp to Washington and Illinois (who would combine to average 6.1 yprp), so they were only 1.0 yprp better than average against good running teams. Those numbers are misleading, however, as Washington and Illinois both have running quarterbacks that got a lot of those yards. Ohio State held All-Big 10 back Rashard Mendenhall to just 88 yards on 26 carries (3.4 ypr) and held Washington star Louis Rankin to 42 yards on 14 carries as quarterback Jake Locker scrambled for 107 yards on 13 rushes. Flynn is a decent runner, but certainly not in the class of Williams and Locker, so don’t imply that Ohio State’s relative troubles with Washington and Illinois apply to LSU’s good rushing attack. LSU may actually run for less than expected in this game given that the Tigers, who are 1.3 yprp better than average overall, were only 0.9 yprp better than average against the 7 better than average run defenses that they faced (5.2 yprp against Miss State, Virginia Tech, Florida, Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas, and Tennessee – who would combine to allow 4.3 yprp to an average team). Ohio State’s defense is 0.9 yppl better than LSU’s offense and my math model projects just 303 yards at 4.5 yppl for the Tigers in this game.
The key to this game is how well LSU’s defense plays. The Tigers were a dominating unit for most of the season, but star DT Glenn Dorsey (the college defensive player of the year) was banged up late in the season and LB Barry Beckwith missed a couple of games late in the season. LSU’s defense was noticeably weaker in their final 3 games, giving up a combined 6.4 yppl to Mississippi, Arkansas and Tennessee. Reports are that the Tigers are fully healthy on defense and will be back to their dominating form for this game. LSU was 1.2 yppl better than average defensively for the season (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team), but the Tigers were 1.6 yppl better than average in their first 10 games and I’ll assume that they will be that good in this game. If that is the case then the Tigers have a 1.3 yppl advantage over an Ohio State offense that was just 0.3 yppl better than average with Todd Boeckman at quarterback. Ohio State was 0.6 yppl better than average against the 3 good defensive teams that they faced (5.3 yppl against Penn State, Illinois, and Michigan, who would allow 4.7 yppl to an average team). However, the Buckeyes averaged only 4.0 yppl against Michigan, who was the best defensive team that they faced this season. Ohio State should have an even tougher time moving the ball against LSU’s defense and my math model projects just 274 yards at 4.1 yppl is the Tigers defense is indeed as good as it was in their first 10 games (which I’m assuming it is). Boeckman is also a bit turnover prone (12 interceptions in just 273 passes, 4.4%) and the math model projects a 5.3% interception rate for Boeckman in this game, so the Buckeyes could be in trouble if they get down by a couple of scores and are forced to throw more than normal against LSU’s attacking defense.
Overall, my math model favored LSU by just ½ a point using stats for each team for the entire season (with 2 points being give to LSU for playing in Tiger-friendly New Orleans), but that projection changes after adjusting Flynn’s stats for games in which he had all his receivers and using only LSU’s first 10 games on defense. I now have LSU by 4 points with a total of just 38 ½ points, as it is pretty clear that the defenses have big advantages in this game and scoring will not be easy (unless there are some defensive touchdowns). Underdogs of 3 points or more are 6-2 straight up in BCS Championship games, including Ohio State’s 31-24 upset of Miami-Florida as a 12 point dog in 2003. The Buckeyes will certainly be motivated after hearing how they can’t compete with an SEC team for the past 6 weeks and Ohio State is better equipped to compete this season given that they’re defense is the best in the nation this year after being a very young group last season. Remember, the Buckeyes’ defense was 0.3 yppl better than LSU’s defense was when it was healthy. I can see both teams winning this game and my math model suggests that there is no value in betting the side in this game. The better play is on the under given that both defenses have significant advantages and I will consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion in this game at 45 points or higher and I have no opinion on the side.
Brandon Lang
15 Dime OHIO STATE
NOTE: I live for moments like this. Flat out live for them.
Hitting championship games is what separates the men from the boys. It's exactly what has separated me from everybody else my entire career.
I really think 8 in a row speak for itself. I really do.
Even better, hit this game tonight and it's a 3rd straight winning week.
So as you can see, a lot on the line tonight.
If you are reading this right now then you obviously made a wise choice. I love the fact you have made me your go to guy with this championship game tonight.
I boast being the best big game handicapper in the world and tonight is another chance to show that world why.
I am as confident as I have ever been that my championship streak will hit #9 in a row tonight after Ohio St gets the cover.
So without further hesitation or delay, here is why Ohio St covers the number tonight in with my 9th straight Championship winner.
OHIO STATE - I have no problem going to war with the Ohio St Buckeyes tonight.
First and foremost, they have the #1 scoring defense as well as the #1 overall defense in all of College football.
A defense that went into Michigan and held the Wolverines to 3 points and 99 yards total offense for the entire game.
Yes people, the same Michigan team that put up 41 points and close to 600 yards total offense against SEC opponent the Florida Gators.
The first mistake people are making with this game is putting to much into the Buckeyes 0-8 run versus the SEC.
In those 8 battles, they never had the best defense in all of college football in which to go to war with.
The second mistake people are making is they are putting to much into Ohio States only mistake of the year in losing to Illinois at home.
Throw that game out in handicapping this game here because Lsu offensively isn't Illinois or for that matter Florida, the only other team to beat Ohio St in 2 years
Those two teams are a spread offense attack, something Lsu isn't. This Ohio St defense matches up very well with this Lsu offense as well as they have anybody all year.
The last mistake they are making is the fact this Lsu team isn't as good as the world is making them out to be.
I mean, this is an Lsu team that trailed in 6 of their games this year with less than 3 minutes to go.
Florida let them off the hook. Alabama let them off the hook. Auburn let them off the hook.
Arkansas went into Lsu and beat them, the same Arkansas team that was destroyed 38-7 in their bowl game by Missouri.
This is an Lsu team that shouldn't have won the SEC championship game versus Tennessee but a couple of bad throws by Ainge of the Vols gave Lsu the win.
A lot of people in the SEC felt the best team in that conference was the Georgia Bulldogs but by almost default, Lsu is here.
Lastly, this is an Lsu team that finished the year on a 1-7-2 ATS. You can call it bad lines or bad football but the fact of the matter is I just don't think this team is that good.
Another area in which the Buckeyes have a tremendous advantage is coaching. Tressel is twice the game coach as Les Miles.
With all this time to prepare and the fact Tressel is a dog, makes the Buckeyes that much more dangerous.
In my opinion, this game comes down to the matchup of the Ohio St running game versus the Lsu 13th ranked rush defense.
Wells is a monster for the Buckeyes and I fully expect him to have a solid game here tonight.
Ohio St was fantastic away from home this year crushing Washington by 19, Minnesota by 23, Purdue by 16, Penn St by 20 and the aforementioned Michigan by 11.
Check out that Penn St win. People, that was the 11th best defense in the country and the 7th best run defense and Ohio St rolled them.
Last year Ohio St was the favorite and they got caught with being over confident and not taking Florida seriously.
That is not going to happen tonight. They are the dog and a live dog at that.
Big ten Michigan beat SEC Florida. Big Ten Wisconsin held it's own against SEC Tennessee. Ohio St will own it's own against Lsu tonight and then some.
Defense wins championships people and it wouldn't surprise me if this Buckeyes team wins this game outright.
9th straight Championship Winner - Ohio St
Psychic
4 units Ohio State +4 MAJOR
Joe Wiz
San Jose St. +12' over Santa Clara
Cal-Riverside (+10)
S. Spritzer's Bowl GOY
OSU Buckeyes
Ethan Law- LSU/OSU Under with opinion on LSU
Matt O'Shea- Under-Best bowl total of the year 3 dime
SI Vegas Steam- Ohio St
Cappers Access LSU
Arthur Ralph
Super Pick Monday U L Monroe
900 Blue Ribbon special : Loyola Chicago
JEFFERSON SPORTS
OHIO ST.+4
RED ZONE
OHIO STATE vs LSU OVER
Matt O'Shea- Ohio St/LSU Under
SI Vegas Steam Ohio St
BeatYourBookie
Daily Premium Basketball Winners for Monday
NCAA Basketball
100* Play Butler (-11) over Loyola-IL
Butler is 18-6 SU vs. Loyola-IL since 1997
Butler is 29-15 ATS in all games over the last 3 seasons
Butler is 24-14 ATS coming off a win over the last 3 seasons
PicksPals
NBA Daily Blast
San Antonio at Golden State
San Antonio is in first place but have only been average in their last 10 games at 5-5. With that and the hot play of New Orleans who has gone 8-2 San Antonio has some company atop the division as the Hornets are just 1/2 game back. Golden State has won 6 of 10 but have dropped their last two games and are just 8-7 at home. Look for San Antonio to win on the road improving on their 5-7 road record and sending Golden State to their third straight loss.
Play San Antonio
Sports Gambling Hotline
The college football season comes to an end tonight in the Superdome, and we will be playing this Ohio State-LSU game OVER the posted price.We are well aware of Ohio State's stingy defense this year, as they held 11 of 12 opponents to 17-points or less, but we are also well aware that the Buckeyes had similar numbers coming into last year's title game, and were lit up for 41-points.LSU has been involved in some high-scoring games this year, and we see no reason to think this game won't see a few points scored...especially indoors 4 of the last 5 BCS championship games have played OVER the total, and we think once the rust of both teams having long layoffs is worn away, this one will also eclipse the posted total.
Play on the OVER in New Orleans tonight.
4* OVER
Mike Rose
OHIO STATE at LSU Under 49
Paul Leiner
10* colorado -3
5* manhattan +9
LT Lock
Ohio St +3'
BURNS
Blue chip-------under OSU/LSU
NHL best bet-----DALAS Stars
GAMBLERS WORLD
TIP OF THE DAY Sport: NCAA Football Game: 8:00PM, BCS Championship Game: Ohio State Buckeyes vs. LSU Tigers
Prediction: LSU Tigers
Current Line: -5.5 Over/Under: 51.5 Reason: Ohio State enters the BCS Championship Game as the No. 1 seed for the second straight year. The Buckeyes hope for a better result against their SEC foe this time around at the Louisiana Superdome. LSU and Ohio State will face off in the controversial game, which some believe could have seen Georgia, USC or West Virginia as deserving foes. Of note, the Buckeyes rank No. 1 in overall defense and LSU has struggled to a 1-7-2 ATS mark their past 10 games. Oddsmakers currently have the Tigers listed as 5.5-point favorites versus the Buckeyes, while the game's total is sitting at 51.5. Ohio State held Michigan to 89 yards in a 14-3 win last time out, covering the 4-point spread. The 17 points scored were UNDER the posted total of 46.5. Todd Boeckman went 7-for-13 for 50 yards and a pick, while Chris Wells ran 39 times for 220 yards and two touchdowns for the Buckeyes. LSU put up 463 yards in a 21-14 win over Tennessee in the SEC title game last time out, creating a PUSH with the 7-point home spread. The 35 points scored were UNDER the posted total of 59. Ryan Perrilloux went 20-for-30 for 243 yards, one touchdown and one pick, while Jacob Hester ran 23 times for 119 yards for the Tigers. Team records: Ohio State: 11-1 SU, 7-4 ATS LSU: 11-2 SU, 4-7-2 ATS Ohio State most recently: When playing in January are 5-4 When playing on turf are 9-1 After outgaining opponent are 9-1 When an underdog on the road are 5-5 LSU most recently: When playing in January are 3-2 When playing on turf are 9-1 After outgaining opponent are 9-1 When favored at home are 9-1 A few trends to consider: Ohio State is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games Ohio State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ohio State's last 6 games LSU is 18-2 SU in its last 20 games The total has gone OVER in 7 of LSU's last 8 games LSU is 1-7-2 ATS in its last 10 games
BOB BALFE
Ohio State +3.5 over LSU
One gets the feeling that this isn't even the title game. After a wacky season of upsets the College season comes to a close tonight. Most will say LSU doesn't deserve to be in the title game as they gave up their #1 ranking twice this season and Ohio State didn't even have to play because the BIG 10 does not have a title game. The Buckeyes backed their way into the title game as did LSU. The number one thing I look at is Ohio State's Defense. They where awesome on defense all season and actually do have an offense to compete. LSU will be playing in front of their home crowd, but they proved they could be beaten at home this year. Ohio State was embarrassed in last years title game and a lot of the players from that game do not want to go through that feeling again. Its sad to see the season end, but its been a fun year! Take Ohio State.
NBA Basketball
Warriors -3 over Spurs
College Basketball
Colorado -3 over Tulsa