Nick Parsons
Arizona Diamondbacks at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks
Well, it definitely could be too little too late but the Diamondbacks are certainly giving it their best shot as they enter the final week of the MLB regular season. With yesterday's 13-4 win, the Diamondbacks have now won six of their last seven games and they've given up and average of less than three runs per game during this streak. With Brandon Webb on the mound, the solid pitching should continue for the Diamondbacks. Webb is simply phenomenal as he's 21-7 this season including 10-5 on the road with a 3.28 ERA and opponents are hitting just .226 against him. Don?t be fooled by his 2-4 career mark against St Louis as he's held the Cardinals to a .243 BAA in his career. He's also facing the Cards at the right time as St Louis has lost ten of their last twelve games and they've scored three runs or less in seven of those twelve games. They certainly are unlikely to enjoy facing Webb. Making matters worse for the Cards is their own pitcher, Todd Wellemeyer, is likely to get rocked here! The Cardinals right-hander has an 8.22 ERA in five career appearances against Arizona. This is simply a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions and plus with the Dbacks being on the road they are loaded with line value here! Having Webb on the hill is a tremendous value and we're recommending you play them here on Monday!
Jimmy The Moose
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
The A's have won 7 of their last 8 games. Oakland is 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record. Oakland is 10-1 in their last 11 games opening up a series. The A's have won 4 of their last 5 road games. Texas is 2-6 in their last 8 games overall. The Rangers are 7-16 in their last 23 home games. Texas has lost their last 5 divisional games. The Rangers are 3-7 in Millwood's last 10 starts vs. AL West opponents. In a game that means nothing in the standings take the team playing better at this time, play on the A's +.
Jim Feist
KC Royals @ DET Tigers
Take Over
There's nothing wrong with this Detroit offense, one ranked 4th in the AL in runs. That was expected. The problem in 2008 was a terrible pitching staff that doomed them, one ranked third worst in the AL as we wind down the season. The offense just scored 17 on Texas, and has averaged 8 runs over 6 games. However, during that stretch they also allowed 11 runs in back to back games, along with a 4-game skid. The pitching still stinks. Starter Zach Miner is thrown to the wolves here and he has a 7.64 ERA his last three starts. He has a poor 54-41 strikeout to walk ratio. Detroit is on an 8-4 run over the total and faces KC righty Gil Meche, who has an ERA over 4 his last three starts. Look for plenty of offense and little pitching again in this game. Play the Royals/Tigers over the total.
SPORTS REPORTER
The Chargers are sandwiched between division rivals Denver and Oakland, and the Jets’ offensive coordinator, Son of Schottenheimer, is bearing down on his former employer, the team that cut pop Marty loose in favor of Norv Turner. But the Chargers are also a desperate and still talented 0-2 SU home team. The Jets have the tools to be in this all the way, with a 3-4 defense to string out and contain LaDainian Tomlinson, an underrated defensive secondary to confound Philip Rivers, and Favre’s arm to drill it to receivers before the Chargers’ pick-happy secondary can get their hands on the piggie. But to win and/or cover, the Jets will more than likely have to overcome some administrative love coming San Diego’s way.Don’t be shocked if there are a few key make-up calls from last week’s striped incompetence which keyed (along with a Merriman-less defense) the loss to Denver. But covering a touchdown without Merriman will be tough. SAN DIEGO, 24-20.
THE GOLD SHEET
OVER THE TOTAL *SAN DIEGO 28 - NY Jets 26—Chargers upset about getting the worst of the officiating last week in Denver, and they also greatly miss the intimidating presence of OLB Shawne Merriman, as the remaining S.D. pass rushers were able to apply little pressure last week in Denver, with Jay Cutler sacked only once while passing for 350 yards and 4 TDs, plus the game-winning two-pointer. That gave the Bolts two straight lastsecond losses. With L.T. limping, maybe they don’t pull away from Favre, who can trade throws with Philip Rivers and help put this one “over.” (05-San Diego -6 31-26...SR: San Diego 18-12-1)
Power Sweep
NY Jets at SAN DIEGO - This is the farthest West the Jets have gone in reg season since facing SD in Wk 2 of 2004. Favre faced SD LY & passed for 369 yds (62%) with a 3-0 ratio but needed a 4Q comeback for a 31-24 win as 6 pt HD. Both teams are off losses to division foes with SD having lost on the foes final play for the 2nd straight week. A hungry SD team now faces a Jets squad with Favre becoming more comfortable each week.
Winning Points
*San Diego over New York Jets by 6
This should be a good barometer just how much the Jets have improved with their new free agents and Brett Favre. New York’s run defense looks much improved so far. The Chargers are sure to be in a bad mood after losing a controversial game last week to the Broncos. San Diego has won and covered seven of its last eight home games. The Chargers probably aren’t going to reach the 42 sacks they got last year with star pass rusher Shawne Merriman out. Obviously a lot depends on the physical condition of LaDainian Tomlinson, who has yet to dominate like he has in the past. SAN DIEGO 26-20.
Pointwise
SAN DIEGO 31 - New York Jets 13 - Rematch of '04 Wild Card meeting. Not many would have imagined the Chargers getting off to an 0-2 start (SU & ATS), but that's the case, with a pair of incredible losses (on final play, & in last 0:24) their bane. Nothing wrong with that "O", behind 6 TD passes from Rivers (377 PYs LW), & Sproles looking super (66-yd TD run, 103-yd KO return LW). Chance to bust out before the nation, & should do it. Are 12-4 ATS off a SU loss, 13-6 ATS as a HF, & 13-6 as Monday hosts. Jets are 5-12 ATS on the nondivision road, & 1-7 ATS in Sept off being upset. Chargers, with plenty to spare.
Nelly's Sportsline
The Chargers have had two devastatingly narrow losses this season and they definitely can have legitimate complaints about last week’s loss with questionable officiating decisions. New York could not knock off the Patriots and move into the AFC East lead but New York has looked sharp on defense. This is a nightmare scenario for the Chargers but the offense has not put a complete game together so far this season and the defense has struggled. The Jets might have some Monday magic. CHARGERS BY 6
Winning Points Series
Philadelphia at Atlanta (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th
The Phillies have dominated the Braves this year (10-2, +$830) and they can fatten up on Atlanta lefthanders (+$655 with 5.5 runs per game in that situation), or when they send their two ace lefties to the hill (Hamels, 3.11 ERA in 31 starts . . . Moyer 3.68 ERA in 30 starts). The Braves are only 18-27 (-$1550) against southpaws in 2008. PREFERRED: Hamels/Moyer/Phillies vs. lefthanders.
Chicago Cubs at N.Y. Mets (3) 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Cubs swept a two game series at Wrigley early in the year (+$200) in the only meeting of these teams so far in ‘08. But the Mets have had an outstanding 2nd half and are poised to erase the stain of last year’s ignominious collapse. They have posted a phenomenal 16-2 record in night games vs. lefties at Shea (+$1300) and all four of these games are evening affairs. PREFERRED: Mets vs. lefthanders.
Bobby Maxwell
Chicago Cubs +130 at N.Y. METS
The Mets are sending a guy making his third career start to the hill tonight when Jonathon Niese (1-0, 4.09 ERA) goes up against the newly crowned N.L. Central champion Cubs and Jason Marquis (10-9, 4.39) at Shea Stadium in New York.
New York has seven games left and they will probably get the wildcard spot but we don't see them overtaking the Phillies in the race for the N.L. East. The Mets struggle on Monday's, losing 11 of their last 15, but they are on a 24-11 run at home.
Niese blanked the Braves back on Sept. 13 but this guy is not ready for this. The Mets are in their final seven games of the season and have four against the Cubs. Chicago has too much offense and will get to Niese in this one.
Marquis is 6-3 on the road for Chicago and last time he pitched on the road he held the Reds to two runs over 7.1 innings of a 14-9 win.
The Cubs won the only two matchups with the Mets this season, outscoring them 15-2 in two games at Wrigley Field back in April. Go ahead and play Chicago to get to the young hurler in this one.
2♦ CHICAGO CUBS
Sports Gambling Hotline
Arizona -130 at ST. LOUIS
The Diamondbacks still have a pulse in the NL West, as they come to the Gateway City having won their last pair, and 6 of their last 7 overall.
We have no issue backing Brandon Webb minus the road juice, as Webb is a fine 21-7 for the season, and he has won his last pair of starts, working 15 innings while allowing just 2 earned runs to score.
St. Louis is crawling to the finish line, as yesterday's loss was their 9th in their last 11 games. Starter Todd Wellemeyer has dropped his last 2 starts, and is just 8-6 at home with an ERA over 4.
The Diamondbacks have taken 2 of the 3 season series meetings coming into one, and we like them to make it 3 of 4 with the much-needed win over the slumping Redbirds.
Play on Arizona.
3♦ ARIZONA
Sports Advisors
N.Y. Jets (1-1 SU and ATS) at San Diego (0-2 SU and ATS)
The Chargers will try to avoid an 0-3 start when they welcome Brett Favre and the Jets to Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego.
After falling 26-24 to Carolina on the final play in its opener, Norv Turner’s squad went to Denver last week and ended up on the wrong end of an officiating blunder in a 39-38 loss to the Broncos in a pick-em contest. The Chargers have gotten outstanding play this season from QB Philip Rivers, who enters tonight with a 122.5 passer rating and who has thrown for 594 yards with six TDs and just one INT. Defensively, however, San Diego has yet to stop anybody, allowing 32.5 points and 437 total yards per game.
The Jets opened the season with a 20-14 road win in Miami as a three-point favorite and then came home last week and lost 19-10 to New England as a one-point favorite. Favre has an NFL-record 445 TD passes but only two in a Jets’ uniform, both coming in the season-opening win over the Dolphins, as last week he finished 18-for-26 for 152 yards with an interception. Eric Mangini’s defense ranks sixth in the league against the run (76.5 ypg) and eighth in total defense (268.5 ypg).
The Jets are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three trips to San Diego dating to 2002, including a 20-17 upset win as seven-point ‘dogs in a 2005 AFC wild-card matchup. The last time these two teams faced each other was in November 2005, when the Chargers scored a 31-26 road win but failed to cover as a 6½-point road chalk. The visitor is 7-2 (6-3 ATS) in the last nine series clashes dating back to 1989, with the straight-up winner going 8-1 ATS during this stretch.
Favre went 5-0 SU against the Chargers in his Packers career, including a 31-24 upset win in Green Bay in Week 3 last season.
New York is on ATS slides of 1-5 against teams with a losing record and 1-4-1 in Week 3 games, but its ATS streaks include 4-0 on the road, 9-5 as a road underdog under Mangini and 12-4 following a non-cover. Meanwhile, the Chargers are in ATS ruts of 0-5 in September contests and 3-7-1 in Week 3 action, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 44-22-2 overall, 35-17-3 against AFC squads, 7-1 at home and 19-8-2 following a SU loss.
The Jets are on under streaks of 6-0 overall (all against the AFC), 4-1 on the road and 7-3-1 against teams with a losing record. Conversely, San Diego is on over runs of 5-0 in September games, 10-2 following an ATS loss and 6-1 following a SU defeat, but the under is 4-0 the last four times the Chargers have played on Monday night.
Finally, all four Monday night games this season have flown over the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (94-60) at N.Y. Mets (86-69)
The N.L. Central champion Cubs travel to Shea Stadium in New York and send veteran right-hander Jason Marquis (10-9, 4.39 ERA) to the mound to face the Mets’ Jonathon Niese (1-0, 4.09) as New York continues its push for the playoffs.
The Mets fell 7-6 in Atlanta on Sunday and lost a game in the standings as Philadelphia scored a 5-2 win in Florida to move 1½ games clear of New York in the N.L. East standings. However, the Mets lead the Brewers by 1½ games in the wild-card race. Jerry Manuel’s club has seven games left, all at Shea, including this four-game set with Chicago and a season-ending three-game series with the Marlins.
The Mets are 24-11 in their last 35 home games and 13-6 in their last 19 against right-handed starters, but they are just 4-11 in their last 15 Monday contests.
The Cubs, who clinched their second straight division title on Saturday, have won eight of their last 10 games and they are on positive streaks of 19-7 on the road, 6-0 on the highway against southpaws, 10-4 against the N.L. East and 6-2 when Marquis works on the road.
Chicago has won both matchups this season against the Mets way back in April, outscoring New York 15-2 in a brief two-game set at Wrigley. The home team is 13-7 in the last 20 head-to-head meetings, and the Mets have won four of the last five at Shea.
Marquis is 6-3 with a 3.05 ERA on the road, including a 14-9 victory in his most recent outing on the highway as he held the Reds to two runs on five hits over 7 1/3 innings. The right-hander hasn’t faced the Mets this season, but lost twice last year as a Cubs’ starter, giving up a combined nine runs in 10 1/3 innings.
Niese is making just his third big-league start and is coming off a gem on Sept. 13 when he blanked the Braves for eight innings in a 5-0 Mets’ win.
The under is 8-3-1 in Chicago’s last 12 overall, 6-0 on the road and 12-4-1 in its last 17 against winning teams, but the over is 9-0-1 in Marquis’ last 10 starts against N.L. East squads. For New York, the over is on runs of 12-5-1 at home, 21-9-3 against right-handed starters, 35-17-3 versus the N.L. Central and 8-2-3 on Mondays.
Finally, the over is 10-3-1 in the last 14 matchups between these squads, including 4-0 in the last four at Shea.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. METS and OVER
Arizona (78-77) at St. Louis (80-75)
The Diamondbacks send ace Brandon Webb (21-7, 3.34 ERA) to the mound opposite the Cardinals’ Todd Wellemeyer (12-8, 3.66) as they kick off a four-game series at Busch Stadium in St. Louis.
Arizona trails the Dodgers by 2½ games in the race for the N.L. West title after Sunday’s 13-4 rout of the Rockies in Colorado and can make up a half-game with a win tonight, as Los Angeles is idle. The DBacks have won six of their last seven overall, but they are just 2-11 in their last 13 on the highway. With Webb on the hill, Arizona is on streaks of 8-3 overall, 21-8 when he pitches a series opener and 21-5 when he faces a team from the N.L. Central.
St. Louis is just 2-11 in its last 13 games and comes into this one off Sunday’s 5-1 loss to the Cubs. The Cardinals went 2-7 on their just-completed road trip and they are just 2-6 in series openers and 2-5 in their last seven against right-handed starters. However, they have won 10 of their last 14 against N.L. West squads and have taken 15 of the last 21 against Arizona at Busch Stadium. Also, the Redbirds are 5-2 the last seven times they’ve faced Webb.
Webb gave up three runs (two earned) in a 7-6 win at home against the Giants on Wednesday, as the DBacks improved to 7-3 in the right-hander’s last 10 outings. Webb is 10-5 with a 3.45 ERA on the road this year, but he got rocked in his last two as a visitor, allowing a combined 13 runs in 10 1/3 innings in losses at San Diego and Los Angeles. Also, the last time Webb went to St. Louis, he allowed five runs on seven hits in six innings of an 11-3 loss in July 2007.
Wellemeyer is just 1-2 despite a solid 2.84 ERA in his last three starts. In fact, St. Louis has lost four of Wellemeyer’s last five efforts, getting shut out in three of those five games. In his last home outing, Wellemeyer yielded two runs (zero earned) in five innings against the Cubs, but failed to get a decision in his team’s 3-2 home defeat. Finally, in his lone career start against Arizona last July, the right-hander gave up six runs (four earned) in just three innings of a 7-1 loss.
The under is 9-2 in the D’Backs’ last 11 overall and 4-0 in their last four against N.L. Central teams. However, with Webb on the hill, the over is on runs of 5-1 on the road, 8-0 on Mondays, 4-1 against teams with a winning record and 6-2 against the N.L. Central. For the Cardinals, the under is on runs of 6-0 at home and 4-0 with Wellemeyer on the hill, but the over is 5-1 in Wellemeyer’s last six against the N.L. West.
Finally, the over has also been the play in four of the last five series clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Carlo Campanella
New York Jets at San Diego Chargers
The NY Jets (1-1) have gone "Under" in both of their games while the Chargers (0-2) have flown "Over" in both of their efforts this season. They meet on Monday Night Football and somethings gotta give! We'll back the "Under" knowing that San Diego Head Coach Norv Turner has gone "Under" in 11 STRAIGHT games following a loss as road Dogs. but covered the spread in his previous game!
Play on: Under
Vegas Experts
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have dominated the Braves all year long, taking 13 of the 15 meetings, and they look to be almost invincible in this price range. Philly is a strong 19-4 this season as a home favorite priced between $1.50 and $2.00 and will be sending out lefty J.A. Happ, who has looked great thus far in three starts, to the hill. Happ faced these Braves in his last outing and tossed six scoreless innings, beating the pitcher he will face tonight, Jair Jurrjens. More of the same tonight.
Play on: Philadelphia
Greg Daraban
Arizona at St.Louis
Rough year for St.Louis. However the Cardinals always tough in this New building over the last few years.They are 40-34 at Busch in 2008. Arizona is just 2.5 back of LA in the west. The DBacks are just 33-44 away from Chase and must exit the altitude in Colorado. Yes Webb is the better pitcher 21-7, but the Cards are the better team.
TakeSt.Louis
Ben Burns
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies remain red hot. With another victory yesterday, they're now 8-1 their last nine and 14-6 their last 20. The Braves also won yesterday. However, they're still just 2-4 their last six games. Additionally, yesterday's victory came at home and we find them at a dismal 26-49 on the road for the season. In addition to having homefield advantage and being the "hotter" team, the Phillies also have the hotter starting pitcher. Although it's still been a limited "sample size," Happ has been dominant as a starter. Last week, he pitched six shutout innings against these same Braves. The Phillies won 6-1. That gives him a 2.12 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in three career starts. On the other hand, Jurrgens was the loser in that game and has an ugly 5.06 ERA and 1.812 WHIP his last three starts. Including Happ's recent victory over Jurrgens, the Phillies are a remarkable 13-2 (+11.4) against the Braves on the season. Considering that the Phillies hit better and have a much better bullpen, the price seems reasonable. Consider Philadelphia
DUNKEL
Chicago Cubs at NY Mets
Jason Marquis brings a solid road record (6-3, 3.05) against a Mets team that has dropped six of its last nine. The Cubs are the underdog pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has Chicago favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+135). Here are all of today's games
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22
Game 901-902: Florida at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 15.359; Cincinnati (Harang) 14.864
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Florida (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-115); Under
Game 903-904: Atlanta at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 15.529; Philadelphia (Happ) 18.010
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-155); 10
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-155); Under
Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Marquis) 15.383; NY Mets (Niese) 14.582
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+135);
Game 907-908: Arizona at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Webb) 16.164; St. Louis (Wellemeyer) 13.589
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-125); Over
Game 909-910: Kansas City at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Meche) 16.433; Detroit (Miner) 13.936
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+130); Under
Game 911-912: Cleveland at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Jackson) 15.471; Boston (Beckett) 17.404
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2;
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 913-914: Tampa Bay at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 14.628; Baltimore (Bass) 15.891
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-150); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+140); Over
Game 915-916: Oakland at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Smith) 16.887; Texas (Millwood) 13.932
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 3; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-135); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+125);
Game 917-918: LA Angels at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 17.431; Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 14.119
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 3; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-155); Under
NFL
Game 421-422: NY Jets at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 127.842; San Diego 140.306
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 12 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: San Diego by 9; 44
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-9); Over
Dave Cokin
ARI D'backs @ STL Cardinals
Take ARI D'backs
Brandon Webb is still in the hunt for the NL Cy Young and the Diamondbacks aren't dead just yet in the NL West. The Cardinals are just playing out the season and while Todd Wellemeyer has been solid for the Redbirds, but there's more on the line for Webb and the DBacks, so I'll spot the price with the road favorite.
Gamebreaker's NFL (Kevin Kavitch)
Yeah, Chargers were robbed and are much better than their 0-2 record. But the Jets aren't slouches and came closer to beating the Pats last week than 19-10 suggests. Jets can defend the pass and generate a rush, they can play solid D, and Favre now has 2 full games under his belt with the Jets. Maybe even more important, the Jets coaches may have learned something from their dumb playcalling. One final thought. The thinking by the public will be San Diego is mad and will hammer the Jets. But the Jets aren't punching bags and often teams that are screwed the previous week spend too much time whining and dwelling on what happened to be sharp. Teams that blew it themselves have better motivation which isn't the case here. Weird dynamic but every season these screwed teams disappoint ATS more often than not. I'll back the Jets to hang within the big number. Take the NY Jets +9 for a 3* Regular Play.