LOGICAL APPROACH
SAN DIEGO - 9 over N Y Jets - The Chargers are off to another slow start after dropping a controversial decision in Denver last week to fall to 0-2. Their losses have been by 1 and 2 points. The Jets were unable to take advantage of the absence of New England QB Tom Brady, losing 19-10 at home to the Patriots to stand 1-1. San Diego is down a bit from last season in terms of overall talent and nagging injuries to several key players but they still possess a strong, well balanced offense and an aggressive, deep defense. Coach Norv Turner is not at as great a disadvantage here against Eric Mangini as he was against John Fox and Mike Shanahan. He has the much more talented team and in a game of need it's preferable to back that talent even though Jets' QB Brett Favre had some fine games against San Diego while playing with Green Bay. The Chargers have a pair of winnable games on deck but both are on the road, making this game even more important. Look for the Chargers to be aggressive early and force Favre and the Jets to play from behind and into the strength of the San Diego defense. San Diego wins 31-14
Sixth Sense
Opinion
SAN DIEGO –8.5 NY Jets 44.5
SD lost in the last 30 seconds of the game last week for the second time in two weeks. To add insult to injury, they lost because of the wrong call on a fumble as well as having a call go against them early in the game because of a faulty review machine. They out gained Denver from the line of scrimmage, 8.8yppl to 6.5yppl, including 11.1yps. They did allow Denver 6.0ypr and 6.5yps. The Jets lost at home to NE 19-10 but out gained NE 5.2yppl to 4.4yppl. NE scored 13 of their 19 points on drives of 31 yards or less. The Jets average 4.2ypr against 3.6ypr but just 6.3yps against 7.6yps for a total of 5.2yppl against 5.7yppl. They allow just 4.4yppl against 4.6ypr so they have played good defense this year. SD has looked very good on offense, averaging 9.5yps against 7.3yps and 7.2yppl against 5.9yppl. They are allowing 5.4ypr against 4.8ypr but just 6.3yps against 7.0yps on defense for a total of 6.0yppl against 5.9yppl. SD qualifies in a negative situation based on their play from last week, which is 76-28-2 and plays against SD here. The Jets qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 636-517-42, including a subset, which is 510-393-30. Numbers only favor SD by a half point and predict about 48 points. The Jets defense is good enough to stay in this game and Brett Favre should be able to do enough to move their offense to be able to stay within the generous points here. SAN DIEGO 24 NY JETS 23
Dave Malinsky
4* Jets
Doc's
3* NY Jets
Matty O'Shea
Triple-Dime Bet
SDC / NYJ Over 44
The New York Jets didn't bring in future Hall of Famer Brett Favre to run a conservative offense, one that is averaging less than field goal more per game through the first two weeks compared to last year with Chad Pennington. In fact, the Jets opened up the offense in the third week of the season last year with Pennington under center in a 31-28 win over Miami after totaling just 27 points combined in the first two weeks. I expect a similar offensive performance here against a San Diego defense that has allowed 32.5 points in dropping games against Carolina and Denver. The Chargers can win a shootout because they have better weapons regardless of whether or not star RB LaDainian Tomlinson plays. They may not cover the spread though, which is why I think the OVER is the obvious choice for the best bet in this game. The total has also gone OVER in the last three regular-season meetings between these teams, so bet the OVER as my Triple Dime Monday Night Football Total Play O' the Month.
Double-Dime Bet
TAM -1.5 vs BAL
The Rays have won eight straight meetings with the Orioles, with seven of them decided by two runs or more. They will also be sending young David Price to the mound for his first career start after the 2008 #1 overall pick went 12-1 with a 2.30 ERA at three different levels in the minors. Price will be opposed by Baltimore's Brian Bass, who has given up eight runs and 11 hits in 8.2 innings over two starts this season. Tampa Bay enjoyed clinching the team's first-ever playoff spot on Saturday and will now be focused on winning the AL East during this closing road trip. Bet the Rays to start this series with a big win on the runline as my Double Dime AL Value Play O' the Week
Jeff Bonds
SDC / NYJ Over 44.5
The New York Jets (1-1) travel to take on the winless San Diego Chargers (0-2) in a MNF game that will most certainly live up to the hype - an OFFENSIVE GAME.
Both quarterbacks should find ample time to throw the ball on Monday night, as they are protected by a couple of the best offensive lines in all of football.
San Diego has been firing on all cylinders since the second half of Week 1 against Carolina and will surely go for the jugular offensively to get in the win column.
New York comes off a disappointing loss to New England last week and back-to-back divisional games which will allow the Chargers to exploit the Jets defense due to lack of focus. J
Jets QB Brett Favre is a perfect 5-0 against the Chargers in his career and had a field day against them in Green Bay last year - throwing for three TDs and no INTs. Expect him to have a HUGE game as former San Diego head coach Marty Schottenheimer's son is the offensive coordinator for New York. With no Shawn Merriman - the Chargers will have to blitz to get to the quarterback and the future Hall of Famer will make them pay.
In the last two years following back-to-back divisional games - the Jets games have gone over by an average of 12.5 points.
The Chargers are a pissed off football team and have gone OVER the total in 10 of their last 12 games following an ATS loss and 6-1 ATS following a SU loss.
Light up the scoreboard - The OVER in MNF goes to a PERFECT 4-0 this year
WSP Smooth 44
LA-Angels -140
LA-Angels RL +120
Kansas City +110
Oakland +120
JB'S COMPUTER PICKS
Kansas City Royals +115
Arizona Diamondbacks -120
Los Angeles Angels -155
Mr A
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles' Ervin Santana (15-6, 3.33 ERA) is 1-1 with a 3.48 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 5-2 with a 4.32 ERA in 11 career starts versus the Mariners
Seattle's Ryan Rowland-Smith (4-2, 3.53) is 0-0 with a 3.38 ERA in his last three starts. The lefthander Rowland-Smith has a 4.05 ERA in seven career outings versus the Angels.
Los Angeles Angels are 9-2 in their last 11 games and have won their last four on the road. Meanwhile, the plummeting Seattle Mariners have lost 11 straight and eight of its last 9 games against Los Angeles.
Take the LA Angels with Ervin Santana on the mound. The Angels have won eight of the righty's last nine starts against Seattle, 2-0 in four starts this season. The Mariners have dropped four of Rowland-Smith's last five starts at Safeco Field.
Los Angeles Angels -155
Tom Freese
Oakland at Texas
Oakland is 7-0 their last 7 games vs. righty starters and they are they are 7-1 their last 8 games vs. AL West teams. The A's are 10-3 their last 13 games when playing Game 1 of a series. Texas is 10-21 vs. an opponent that scored 5 or more runs in their last game and they are 4-9 their last 13 games when playing Game 1 of a series. The Rangers are 3-7 in the last 10 starts made by Kevin Millwood vs. AL West teams and they are 0-4 when he starts Game 1 of a series. PLAY ON OAKLAND +
Drew Gordon
Oakland +115 at TEXAS
While both these teams will be watching the postseason from the comfort of their couches, you wouldn't know it by the Athletics play lately, going 7-1 over their last 8 games! Although they've struggled in Arlington this season, they're catching the Rangers at the right time, with nothing to play for AND slumping, losers of 4 straight, including a 3-game home sweep at the hands of the Angels.
Pitching match up might seem to favor the Rangers at first, but upon deeper review, do you really trust Kevin Millwood? Sure, he's pitching on 5 days rest, but in that spot he's gone 2-3 with a 6.05 ERA this season. Not to mention, he's been terrible throughout September, going 0-2 with an ugly 7.50 ERA in his last 3 starts!
Opposing Millwood is the A's lefty Greg Smith, who got knocked around for 6 runs in 5 2/3 innings against Texas back on September 12th. I tell you this for two reasons: A. Smith has had his troubles against Texas, but remains 1-1 with an excellent 2.89 ERA in the month of September. And B. Rangers are batting just .247 against lefties over their last 10 games, so look for Smith to finally get some redemption in this one.
Finally, there's no doubt the A's have the edge in the bullpen, but especially of late. The Rangers 'pen has posted a laughable 8.03 ERA over their last 10 games, as compared to just a 2.25 ERA over the same span for Oakland! In the end, the A's are riding a nice hot streak, have the better starter, the better bullpen, and catch the Rangers slumping... Perfect oppurtunity to grab some of that plus money Monday night!
Take Oakland behind Smith over Texas and Millwood in this MLB match up.
2♦ OAKLAND
Indiancowboy Comp
Monarchs/Silver Stars Under 145
Additional Write-up:
I just don't see the Silver Stars getting embarassed at home here. Keep in mind that I wouldn't want to lay this many points in an an elimination game, but I do favor San Antonio to do that here, I do like the under. Hence, the favorite/under theory that I have which is parallel to the dog/over theory. I think San Antonio comes out fired up, plays great defense and ends up winning this game as the public feels that it will go over by a 2:1 margin, but I just don't believe so as there are many factors that point to the under here - although I do feel that it will be a tight cover. But, I don't think it is highly improbable for this game to land in the high 130's. The under is 5-2 for the Monarchs following an ATS win such as the last game, which goes to show they have trouble repeating success as they have all year and although there are many previous trends pointing to the over here such as the first 2 ballgames in this series, I'll take the under.
Matt Rivers
For Monday take the Diamondbacks in Busch.
I cannot say that I truly trust this Arizona offense at all and Brandon Webb has been far from lights out over the past month but this price is still too cheap to pass up what is still easily one of the best pitchers on the planet.
Webb and that sinkerball has a world of upside and could dazzle at anytime. The Cardinals are coming off of that series in Wrigley Field and easily could pack it in here, if they have not already, as guys like Rick Ankiel and Chris Carpenter are done for the season and after a very successful first four months to the season Tony LaRussa's squad has been lacking, to be kind, for the past month or so. The Redbirds are just not playing with the same overachieving passion as they did earlier and it has shown in loss after loss.
Todd Wellemeyer is fairly mediocre and certainly well inferior when compared to Webb and that is an extreme understatement.
Arizona needs to win every game remaining in order to try and catch Manny and the Dodgers and to get them with the reigning Cy Young award winner and a great great hurler against Wellemeyer is enough for me to lay a small price like this for sure.
They may have Albert but we pretty much are backing the superior everything at a small price and that's enough for me.
Dwayne Bryant
Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -122
These are two teams heading in opposite directions. The Diamondbacks have been hot, winning six of their last seven. The beat-up Cardinals lost on Sunday, falling for the ninth time in their last 11 games. The Cardinals have scored two runs or less six times in that span.
Arizona's Brandon Webb has posted a 1.20 ERA en route to winning his last two outings. He got shelled in three straight starts before that, but I attribute that to the pressure of trying to snag his 20th win of the season. He was outstanding before that point and he has been brilliant since. Cardinals slugger Albert Pujols is batting just .238 (5-for-21) against Webb.
Todd Wellemeyer gets the ball for St. Louis. Wellemeyer is 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA in one start and four relief appearances against Arizona. Wellemeyer has been the victim of poor run support in recent weeks, going 1-4 in his last five starts despite posting a 3.09 ERA and a .200 opponents batting average during that span. The Cardinals have given Wellemeyer an average of 1.4 runs to work with in those contests. The Cardinals are 1-6 in Wellemeyer's last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Arizona is surging, fighting for their playoff lives. The limping Cardinals are all but eliminated from playoff contention and what is left of this team appears to have given up. Webb should have no trouble plowing through the struggling Cardinals lineup.
Take Arizona
LT Profits
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers Under 9.5
The Kansas City Royals and the Detroit Tigers have a history of playing low scoring games against each other, and we look for this to continue tonight when Gil Meche opposes Zach Miner.
Meche has been a workhorse with a commendable 12-11 record for the Royals, with Kansas City going 17-15 as a team in all of his starts. He is coming off of a fine outing vs. the Seattle Mariners, where he allowed two runs and six hits in seven innings for his third Quality Start in his last four starts and his fifth in his last seven outings.
Meche has actually pitched better on the road than at home this season, as he owns a nice 3.68 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 16 road starts. Perhaps most importantly, Meche has reeled off five consecutive Quality Starts vs. these Tigers including a perfect three for three this season.
Now Miner has been mediocre at best, but he did have an excellent outing at Texas last time out where he allowed just two runs on five hits in 7.1 innings, and the Royals are one team that Miner has owned this season.
He has allowed a grand total of one run in three starts vs. Kansas City this year covering 19 innings. Now we do not expect that kind of success again here, but we do expect him to pitch reasonably well enough to keep this total down.
Finally, the Under is now 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings between these teams.
Pick: Royals, Tigers Under 9.5
Oakland Athletics +125
The Oakland Athletics and the Texas Rangers are two clubs going in opposite directions, so the Athletics offer some very nice value as decided underdogs in this spot.
Oakland may have a very bright future, as this club has played much better since filling their lineup with youngsters after September 1. The team is playing with a youthful exuberance after plodding along the first five months of the season, and the Athletics are now 7-1 in their last eight games.
On the flip side, the Rangers quit on this season a long time ago, and they have been downright dismal since the All-Star break. Texas has lost four straight games and six of their last eight, and they have had an alarming fall-off offensively after tearing the ball up the first half of the season.
We will go with the hot team vs. the dead team as an underdog in this spot.
Pick: Athletics +125