SPORTSADVISORS
San Francisco (2-6 SU and ATS) at Arizona (5-3, 5-2-1 ATS)
The 49ers look to snap a five-game SU and ATS losing skid when they travel to Glendale, Ariz., to take on the Cardinals, who haven’t lost in the desert this season and are trying to sweep this season series.
The first game for interim coach Mike Singletary did not go well as San Francisco lost 34-13 to Seattle as a five-point home favorite, sending the team into its bye week with a fifth straight setback. Singletary, who blasted his team in a postgame news conference, has benched starting QB J.T. O’Sullivan in favor of Shaun Hill, who went 15-for-23 for 173 yards and a TD in relief work against Seattle.
Arizona blew out St. Louis last week 34-13 as a three-point road chalk, improving to 3-1 SU (4-0 ATS) in its last four overall. The Cardinals had a 450-231 yard edge in total offense and forced three turnovers as they scored 30-plus points for the fourth time in the last five games. Arizona leads the NFL in scoring offense at 29.3 points per game, and that increases to 34 ppg at home, where the Cardinals have won five in a row (4-1 ATS) and nine of 11 since Ken Whisenhunt took over as head coach last season.
Unlike the 49ers, Arizona has no quarterback issues, as Kurt Warner has turned back the clock, throwing for 2,431 yards this season with 16 TDs and six INTs.
Arizona went to San Francisco in the season opener and got a 23-13 win as a one-point favorite, with Warner throwing for 197 yards. Last year, the 49ers were one of only two teams to win at Arizona, prevailing 37-31 in overtime as a 10-point ‘dog. San Francisco is 3-1 ATS (2-2 SU) in its last four trips to the desert dating to 2004. Also, the underdog is 6-3 ATS in the past nine series battles (4-1 ATS in the last five).
San Francisco is 16-14 SU (19-11 ATS) on the road on Monday nights, while Arizona is 3-6-1 SU (4-6 ATS) in this prime-time showcase under the lights.
San Francisco carries nothing but negative ATS trends into this game, including 2-8 on the road, 2-5 against NFC West rivals, 1-6 against teams with a winning record and 0-4 against NFC teams. Conversely, in addition to their current 4-0 ATS roll overall and 4-0 ATS run at home, the Cardinals are pointspread upticks of 8-3 against NFC West teams and 4-1 after a straight-up win.
For the Niners, the under is on runs of 7-1 in November and 10-4 against the NFC West, but the over is 4-1 in their last five following a non-cover. Arizona is on several over runs, including 22-8 overall, 5-0 at home, 14-4 after a spread-cover, 8-3 against the NFC West and 25-8 against teams with a losing record. In this rivalry, the over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings overall and 4-0 in the last four clashes in Arizona.
Finally, the over is 8-1-1 in Monday night contests this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER
NBA
Portland (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) at Orlando (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS)
The Magic will try to make it five straight wins when they host the Blazers in Orlando.
After losing two games to start the season, Orlando has rattled off four wins in a row (3-1 ATS), all at home. The Magic crushed Washington 106-81 as a 9½-point favorite Saturday with Dwight Howard leading the charge with 31 points and 16 rebounds.
Portland has won two in a row (1-1 ATS) after losing three of four (1-3 ATS) to begin the season. The Blazers got a combined 48 points from Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge in Saturday’s 97-93 victory over Minnesota, but they failed to cash as eight-point favorites. They are 0-3 SU and ATS on the road this season, averaging five points per game less (89.3) on the road than at home (94.3).
Orlando has won the last four meetings with the Blazers (3-1 ATS) and six of the last seven (5-1-1 ATS). The Blazers haven’t won in Orlando since 2004, going 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three visits to central Florida. Last year the Magic got a 101-94 home win as 5½-point favorites and prevailed 85-74 in Portland as a five-point chalk. The straight-up winner is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 series clashes.
The Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last six after a non-cover but otherwise they are on ATS slides of 1-4 on the road, 3-8 after a straight-up win and 7-19 on Mondays. Orlando is on ATS streaks of 17-8-2 at home, 7-3 against the Northwest Division and 20-7-2 at home against teams with a losing road record.
Portland has topped the total in four of its last five games, but otherwise the under for the Blazers is on streaks of 8-2 on the road, 4-1 when playing with a day of rest and 10-1 after a straight-up win. The Magic have gone over the posted number in seven of their last 10 Monday games, but the team’s under streaks include 20-7 overall, 19-7 after a spread-cover, 7-2 against the Western Conference and 5-1 at home. In head-to-head meetings, the under is 9-3-1 in the last 13.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
Toronto (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) at Boston (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS)
The Celtics shoot for their fifth straight victory when they host the Raptors inside the TD Banknorth Garden in Boston.
Boston has won four straight (3-1 ATS) and six of seven to start the season and the defending champs are a perfect 3-0 in front of the home fans (but 1-2 ATS). On Sunday, the Celtics went to Detroit and throttled the Pistons 88-76, allowing just 29 first-half points in cashing as one-point road ‘dogs. The defense has been the key for Boston at home, limiting the opposition to 84.7 ppg and 37-percent shooting from the field, including 28.9 percent from beyond the 3-point line.
Toronto snapped a two-game losing streak with an 89-79 win in Charlotte on Sunday as a 4½-point favorite. The Raptors are 3-1 SU and ATS on the road this year, but dating back to last season they are just they have failed to cash in 12 of their last 16 on the highway.
Boston has won four of the last five meetings (SU and ATS) with the Raptors, but lost the most recent battle at home, 114-112 as an 8½-point favorite in January. The Celtics are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 series clashes and the straight-up winner is 9-1 ATS in those 10.
Toronto is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight overall and 2-10 ATS in its last 12 on the road against squads with a winning home record. Boston is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 against the Eastern Conference and 1-4 ATS in its last five Monday games, but otherwise the Celtics are on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 11-3 overall, 16-7 at home, 20-6-2 against teams from the Atlantic Division and 19-7-1 when playing on back-to-back nights.
For the Raptors, the under is 12-5-1 in their last 18 overall, 28-9 in their last 37 Monday games, 8-1 on the second night of a back-to-back and 12-4-1 in their last 17 against the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, Boston has stayed under the total in five of its first seven games this season, 19 of its last 26 on Monday and six of its last seven on the second night of a back-to-back. Lastly, the under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
EROCKMONEY
San Francisco at Arizona Under 47
Vegas Vic
49ers (+9) over CARDINALS
Wild Bill
49'ers-Arizona Over 46 (5 units)
Arizona -9 1/2 (5 units)
Norm Hitzges
Single Plays
Arizona -9.5 vs San Francisco
Arizona/San Francisco Over
Lock of the day
San Fran +10
Dr Bob
ARIZONA (-9.5) 27 San Francisco 17
Arizona is one of the better teams in the NFL this season, as the Cardinals have out-gained their opponents 6.0 yards per play to 5.5 yppl and their defensive rating is actually better than average if you only include the 6 games in which star S Adrian Wilson has played. The 49ers are switching to Shaun Hill at quarterback in place of the reckless J.T. O’Sullivan, who threw 11 interceptions in 7 ½ points before getting pulled against Seattle. Hill played at a decent level at the end of last season and he figures to settle for shorter passes while taking less sacks and throwing fewer interceptions. The Niners have a decent offense (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and a pretty good defense that’s yielded just 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl to an average attack. San Francisco hasn’t reached their potential as a better than average team because of their -10 turnover margin. With O’Sullivan less likely to turn the ball over from the bench I expect the 49ers to become more competitive. Even with that being the case my math favors Arizona by 9 ½ points in this game, so I’ll pass.
Carlo Campanella
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco (2-6) has now gone "Over" the Total in 3 of their last 4 games as they face an Arizona (5-3) squad that´s gone "Over" in 4 of their last 5 games! We´re backing the OVER on Monday Night Football as we find Arizona owning an 11-3 (Over/Under) record when facing a team below the .500% win level. We might be in for some fire works on Monday Night as the last two meetings of this series played in Arizona have soared Over, with the games ending with Final scores of 37-31 and 27-34!
Play on: Under
VEGAS EXPERTS
Memphis Grizzlies at Phoenix Suns
Phoenix has simply owned Memphis winning the last seven series meetings overall and 21 of 25 all-time here at home. However, this 12-point spread is an overlay, particularly because we find the Suns at a very poor 4-17 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the last 2+ seasons. Also, the Grizzlies are 13-12 ATS here in Phoenix all-time. Prior to last night's game with the Nuggets, Memphis was 4-2 ATS this year, including a cover as a DD dog vs. Houston.
Play on: Memphis
Alex Smart
Boston Celtics -8.0
The Toronto Raptors(4-2) enter into this eastern conference tilt against the defending champion Boston Celtics(6-1) play ing some very good basketball, behind their leading scorer Chris Bosh. The host Celtics are also playing at a very high level, via a more balanced attack and defense.
The Raptors successes and failures hinge on the play of Bosh, if he can be slowed, than his team, does not have much of chance of getting a win. The Celtics, who are allowing just 86.7 PPG on a .375 FG% know this, and will concentrate on him, while their own offense behind the big three of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, do more than enough damage to come out of this with a win and cover.
Final notes & Key Trends: Toronto has lost 14 of their L/18 road games SU , dating back to last season. Boston is 13-2 ATS L/15 vs divisional foes, winning SU by an average of 13.5 PPG.
Projected score : Boston 97 Toronto 85
John Ryan
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers
Play:Oklahoma City Thunder +10.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Oklahoma City - AiS shows a 72% probability that Oklahoma City will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 85-40 making 41 units since 2002. Play on road dogs that are good defensive teams averaging 41.5-43.5% and is now facing an average defensive team hitting 43.5-45.5% and in a game involving two average rebounding teams with a differential of +/-3 reb/game. Oklahoma City is an up tempo offensive style of team and the Pacers have had a difficult time managing this onslaught in recent seasons. Pacers are just 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 3 seasons. Pacers have covered two straight and this simple fact puts them in a vulnerable role noting they are 0-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Take Oklahoma City.
JIM FEIST
NEW JERSEY NETS / MIAMI HEAT
Take: MIAMI HEAT
Reason: The Nets are just 1-2 on the road. New Jersey Nets guard Devin Harris was held out of Saturday night's game against the Pacers with a sprained left ankle. Harris scored a career-high 38 points in New Jersey's win over the Detroit Pistons on Friday night. He ranks second on the team with 18.8 points per game and is a key cog, as we saw as the Nets lost Saturday, 98-80. Miami has been soft on the road, but really plays well at home (2-0). Unlike last season, they are healthy with plenty of offensive firepower with Wade and rookie Beasely. They are averaging close to 100 ppg and match up well against this ailing NJ team. Play the Miami Heat.
Dave Cokin
Grizzlies @ Suns
Play: Suns -12
Tough spot for the Grizzlies. They wilted in the second half of their Sunday night game against the Nuggets. Now Memphis has to leave the altitude and head down to the desert for a clash with a rested Phoenix entry. The Suns should be able to dictate their tempo here and I would look for them to pull away and score the blowout win over the weary Grizzlies.
Tom Freese
Tampa Bay at Washington
Washington is 12-3 OVER off two or more straight home wins. The Capitals are 5-0 OVER on Monday and they are 6-2 OVER their last 8 games in the Nations Capital. Tampa Bay is 14-4 OVER their last 18 November road games and they are 12-3 OVER after winning four or five of their last six games. The Lightning are 5-2 OVER on Monday. PLAY ON 'OVER'
Bryan Leonard
Orlando (-) over Portland
Long road trip for the Blazers who had to come from behind to beat the Timberwolves at home on Saturday. Now they fly from Portland, Oregon to Orlando, Florida to take on the Magic. This marks the opening game of a five game road trip as Portland plays 7 of their next 8 games on the road. The Blazers have faced three opponents away from home this season losing by 20, 11 and 7 points.While Portland is off back to back hard fought games the Magic should be very fresh tonight. They are playing their fifth straight home game knowing the last two games here were wire to wire cakewalks. They led Philadelphia by 14 points after the first quarter and cruised to a 98-88 victory. Then on Saturday they held a 19 point halftime lead over Washington and easily retained control in a 15 point victory.Look for the long travel situation to be a factor as the Blazers fall behind early. PLAY ORLANDO