Sports Advisors
Cleveland (3-6, 5-4 ATS) at Buffalo (5-4, 4-5 ATS)
Two teams in desperate need of a victory square off tonight at Ralph Wilson Stadium when the Browns make the trek to Buffalo for a prime-time matchup.
Cleveland has dropped two straight (0-2 ATS) and three of four (2-2 ATS). The Browns have blown fourth-quarter leads the last two weeks, falling to Baltimore 37-27 as one-point home favorites on Nov. 2 and then losing 34-30 to Denver on Nov. 6 as a three-point home chalk, with the defensive giving up 564 total yards including 441 passing yards, including three fourth-quarter touchdown passes.
Brady Quinn made his debut as the Browns’ starting QB against the Broncos and was an impressive 23-of-25 passing for 239 yards and two TDs with no INTs.
Since opening the season with four straight wins, the Bills have dropped four of five SU and ATS including the last three in a row, all to AFC East foes. Last week in New England, Buffalo mustered just 168 total yards and fell 20-10 as a 3½-point ‘dog, and in their most recent home game, the Bills fell 26-17 to the Jets as five-point favorites. Buffalo has turned the ball over nine times and QB Trent Edwards has been sacked nine times during its current three-game slide.
Last year when these two squared off in Cleveland, the Browns got an 8-0 win as four-point favorites as the Bills managed just 232 yards of offense in blizzard-like conditions. Cleveland RB Jamal Lewis did the bulk of the damage, running for 163 yards on 33 carries.
Cleveland is on several positive ATS streaks, including 17-7 overall, 7-3 on the road, 12-5 against teams from the AFC, 13-3 against teams with a winning record and 9-3 following a non-cover. Buffalo is in pointspread ruts of 1-4 overall and 0-4 in November games, but they are on positive ATS streaks of 12-5 at home, 39-19-3 against teams with a losing record and 13-3 at home against teams with a losing road record.
Cleveland is 14-12 SU (15-11 ATS) in its last 26 Monday games while Buffalo is 17-21 SU (18-18-2 ATS) under the Monday night lights.
For the Browns, the over is 5-1 in their last six November games, but otherwise the team is on under streaks of 11-4 overall, 7-3 against AFC teams, 5-1 following a non-cover and 6-1 on the road. For the Bills, the under is on runs of 5-1-1 against AFC teams, 11-4 against teams with a losing record and 35-16-1 following a straight-up loss, but the over is on runs of 6-1-1 at home and 4-0 on Mondays.
Finally, the over is 9-2 in Monday night matchups this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Massachusetts (1-1, 0-1 ATS) at (13) Memphis (1-0 SU and ATS)
John Calipari and his Tigers host the coach’s former school when the Minutemen visit Memphis in a non-conference matchup.
Calipari coached in Massachusetts from 1988-1996 and led the school to five straight Atlantic 10 titles and NCAA Tournaments, including a Final Four appearance in 1996. Now in his eighth campaign in Memphis, Calipari has led the Tigers to the Big Dance in five of the last six years, including making it to the national title game last year before losing to Kansas 75-68 in overtime.
Memphis (38-2, 18-18-2 ATS in 2007-08) lost its two leading scorers in Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose to the NBA, but is still favored to win Conference USA. The Tigers opened Saturday with a 90-63 blowout win over Fairfield in the first round of the Puerto Rico Tip-off Tournament, cashing as 21-point favorites. Four of Memphis’ five starters scored in double digits, with Shawn Taggart leading the way with 14 points and 12 rebounds.
The Tigers opened last season with a 26-game winning streak (13-11-2 ATS) before losing at home to Tennessee, then the Tigers won 12 more in a row (5-7 ATS) before the loss in the national title game. Memphis went 18-1 at the FedEx Forum last year, but just 10-8-1 ATS.
UMass (25-11, 17-15-1 ATS last year) reached the NIT championship game at Madison Square Garden in April, falling to Ohio State 92-85 in the title tilt as three-point pups. The Minutemen rattled off four wins to get the final, going 3-1 ATS in the process, and they finished 11-8 on the highway (11-7 ATS).
First-year Minutemen coach Derek Kellogg played for Calipari at UMass and was his assistant at Memphis the last eight seasons. Kellogg easily won his debut Tuesday, pounding Arkansas-Monticello 90-71 in an un-lined contest, but fell Wednesday 80-73 at Southern Illinois, blowing a nine-point halftime lead and failing as five-point underdogs.
UMass is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven Monday games, while the Tigers are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine on Mondays and 2-7 ATS in their last nine after a spread-cover. However, Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five overall and 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games.
For the Minutemen, the over is 20-9-1 in their last 30 non-conference games and 12-5 in their last 17 after a non-cover. For Memphis, the over is on runs of 6-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 4-1 against teams from the Atlantic 10 and 6-1 in non-conference games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
Phoenix (8-3, 6-5 ATS) at Utah (6-4, 4-6 ATS)
The Jazz return to the friendly surroundings of EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City when they host the Suns in a Western Conference matchup.
Utah is coming off a five-game East Coast road swing that saw the Jazz go just 1-4 SU and ATS, including Saturday’s 105-93 loss in Cleveland as 10½-point favorites. Not only has Utah lost three in a row, it is just 1-5 ATS in its last six. At home, though, the Jazz are a perfect 4-0 (2-2 ATS), averaging 10 more points per game (101.5-91.5) and shooting 49.5 percent from the field as opposed to 43.4 percent for their visitors.
Phoenix is coming off last night’s 104-86 win over the Pistons, easily cashing as a two-point home favorite. The Suns are on a 4-1 SU roll, but are just 2-4 ATS in their last six, with last night’s spread-cover snapping a three-game ATS slump. Phoenix has been doing it with defense lately, allowing just one opponent to top the 100-point mark in its last five games.
Utah won two of the three meetings with Phoenix last season (3-0 ATS), and the Jazz are 6-2 SU and ATS in the last eight with the Suns. In the only battle in Salt Lake City last season, the Jazz crushed the Suns 108-86 as 7½-point favorites, but otherwise the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Phoenix is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games against Western Conference squads and 2-4-1 ATS in its last six against teams with a winning record. Utah is on positive ATS streaks of 41-18-2 at home, 13-3 on Mondays and 4-1 against Pacific Division foes, but the Jazz are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 against teams with a winning record.
The over is on streaks of 4-1 when the Suns play the second night of a back-to-back and 6-0 when they play on Mondays. For Utah, the over is on runs of 24-10 against Pacific Division teams, 5-2 at home against teams with a winning road record and 5-1 when they return home after a road trip of seven or more days.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and OVER
Sixth Sense
Opinion
BUFFALO –5 Cleveland 42
Browns lost a close game at home to Denver last week but their defense was dominated by Denver. They allowed Denver to gain 4.4ypr, 10.3 yps and 7.9yps. The Browns did gain 5.5ypr, 6.8yps and 6.2yppl against a bad Denver defense but those numbers are about average when you consider how bad Denver’s defense is. Buffalo lost at New England and were never really in the game. They were out gained 4.7yppl to 3.9yppl, including getting out passed 6.5yps against 4.3yps. Cleveland averages 4.9yppl against 4.9yppl and allows 4.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.2yps against 6.0yps and 5.9yppl against 5.2yppl. Buffalo averages just 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.3yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow just 3.7ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. Buffalo qualifies in my turnover table, which is 390-249-18. Cleveland qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 133-87-5. Numbers favor Buffalo by six points and predict about 40 points. I was a little surprised to see such a low predicted score. This would seem like a good opportunity for Buffalo to get their offense going. If they can’t get it going here it will be a bad sign for the rest of the season for the Bills. BUFFALO 23 CLEVELAND 17
Wild Bill
NFL
Buffalo -4 1/2 (5 units)
NBA
Spurs +1 1/2 (5 units)
CBB
Pitt -13 1/2 (5 units)
Oklahoma St -10 1/2 (5 units)
Fresno St +22 (5 units)
Boise St +12 1/2 (5 units)
Missouri -14 (5 units)
THE GOLD SHEET
*Cleveland 24 - BUFFALO 20—Cleveland has blown big leads at home in
recent weeks, but Browns have covered their last 3 away. Brady Quinn (66%, 2 TDs) appeared quite ready to the lead attack in his first start vs. Denver. Meanwhile, worst-case scenario materializing for fading Buffalo, with defensive injuries mounting, running game bottled up, and 2nd-year QB Trent Edwards (2 picks last week at N.E.) unable to hit big gainers. CABLE TV—ESPN (07-CLEVE. 8-Buf. 0...C.16-11 C.37/174 B.32/108 C.9/24/0/130 B.13/33/0/124 C.0 B.0) (07-CLEVELAND -5' 8-0...SR: Cleveland 9-5)
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA
CLEVELAND at BUFFALO (Monday, November 17)...Romeo has covered his last 3 as visitor TY. Bills no covers 4 of last 5 TY. Tech edge-Browns, based on recent trends
NELLY
BUFFALO (-4½) Cleveland (42)
The Bills have dropped three in a row and are in serious danger of falling out of contention. Fortunately three losing teams are up next on the schedule. QB Edwards has had two poor games in a row but the running game might get going again versus a suspect Cleveland defense. Cleveland QB Quinn played fairly well in his debut but for the second straight week the Browns blew a sizable late-game lead. The Bills have won three of four games at home this season and the one loss featured some bizarre plays in a game they dominated early. Look for the Bills to bounce back as the adjusted Browns offense might struggle away from home for the first time. It is do or die time for the Bills as there is no margin for error. BILLS BY 10
Pointwise
BUFFALO 20 - Cleveland 17 - (8:35) -- These 2 aren't exactly perking, with the Browns on a 2-game slide (35.5 ppg "D"), while the Bills have dropped 3 straight (14 ppg "O"). Quinn's debut was a success for Cleveland, as he was 23-of-35 for 239 yds & 2 TDs (no picks), altho the Brownies went down late to Denver. Buffalo has managed just 45 RYpg the past 2 wks, with Edwards ranked just 22nd in the NFL, with a 7/7 TD/INT ratio. Buffalo is 14-2 ATS off the Pats, & 11-1 ATS as a non-division HF, but Cleveland is 17-3 ATS off allowing >26 pts. Call this one tite.
NORTHCOAST SPORTS POWER SWEEP
Cleveland at BUFFALO - Brady Quinn became the 11th starting QB for CLE in the 10 years since their return. While he had 239 yds (66%) with a 2-0 ratio he only had 3 passes of 10 or more yds. For the 2nd week in a row CLE’s #27 defense let a big lead slip away for the loss. BUF was riding high with a 5-1 record after beating SD but has lost 3 straight div games. Quinn gets another favorable matchup as BUF’s defense which will likely be without 3 starters & the team has extra rest. BUF gave DAL a huge scare in their 1st MNF game in 13 years LY on MNF and are desperate after 3 straight division losses
Statfox Platinum Sheet
CLEVELAND at BUFFALO
Motivation is one of the most under-scrutinized factors in handicapping sports. It seems we all like to look for teams that have plenty to play for,but we don’t put enough into which teams’ seasons may have already been rendered over. Well, Cleveland’s 2008 campaign has essentially been flushed down the toilet. After making a run at the playoffs a year ago,this franchise is once again in disarray and it came to a head in the late loss last Thursday night vs. Denver. Meanwhile, Buffalo is struggling a bit but still finds itself in the playoff hunt. The Bills also have the motivation of playing in front of the home folks on a Monday night. They have a history of taking care of bad teams too: Jauron is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of BUFFALO.The average score was BUFFALO 21.0, OPPONENT 14.5 - (Rating = 2*). The Browns qualify as a bad team, one not worthy of your betting dollar.Play: Buffalo -4.5
Jim Feist
PHOENIX SUNS / UTAH JAZZ
Take Under
Phoenix just went 2 straight games under the total last week. They are not the all out run and gun team of the last few years, with veterans like Shaq and Grant Hill, playing a slower tempo at times. Utah is on a 1-4 SU/ATS run because of injuries. In the loss to Cleveland, 105-93, shorthanded again, the Jazz played without Deron Williams (ankle), Andrei Kirilenko (finger), Matt Harpring (ankle) and Memo Okur, who remains in Turkey with his critically ill father. They come home from a 5-game road trip and offense hasn't hit 100 in 5 straight. All of which makes this total too high; Play the Suns/Jazz under the total.
Sportsbettingstats
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills
The Browns come into this game after losing a barn-burner to the Denver Broncos last Thursday 34-30 while the Bills were beat by the New England Patriots 20-10. Neither of these teams is playing well right now and even though the Browns are, pretty much, out of the playoff picture the Bills can still make the post season with a strong finish. The Browns are led by new starting QB Brady Quinn (239 yds 2 TD) and his main targets are Braylon Edwards (27 rec 472 yds 3 TD) and Kellen Winslow (36 rec 362 yds 3 TD). The Browns rushing attack is led by Jamaal Lewis (573 yds 4 TD). The Bills are led by QB Trent Edwards (1845 yds 7 TD 7 INT) and his main target is Lee Evans (37 rec 700 yds 3 TD), but his 2nd WR Josh Reed is out with an ankle injury. The Bills rushing attack is led by Marshawn Lynch (512 yds 6 TD).
Staff Pick: Even though Brady Quinn is getting all the press for the Browns lately the key to this game may be the Browns defense. Their D is ranked 25th in the league and they are especially weak in stopping the run. Bills RB Lynch has not had the best season, but he will get a lot of carries tonight and if he has a good game the Bills will be sitting pretty. The Bills D is ranked 13th in the league and they are strong defending the pass. They will go after Quinn early and often, so this will be a big test for the new starter. For the Browns to win this game their D has to play well and Jamaal Lewis has to pick up some yards, so the Bills D does not only focus on Quinn. Quinn had a good game last week against Denver, but the Broncos D is terrible and the Bills D is legit. The Bills have to win this game to get back in the playoff picture, but they have not beat one team with a winning record this season and they have lost 3 of their last 4 of their last 5 games including 3 straight to AFC East opponents. Still, Buffalo’s D will carry them to victory tonight against a disappointing Browns team.
Bills 24 Browns 21
Dave Cokin
Rockets @ Thunder
Play: Thunder +8'
The Tlunder can't play a lick, but they're catching a bundle at home tonight from Houston. The Rockets are in a big game sandwich and already handled this team easily earlier, so it's a spot where they figure to be at less than 100% focus. Those are scenarios where I like home dogs to hang in, so I'll play Ok City here.
Jimmy The Moose
Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs
Prediction: Over
Boston is averaging 3.00 GPG and will find the net tonight vs. a Leafs team that is allowing an average of 3.39 GPG. The over is 7-2-1 in Boston's last 10 games vs. Northeast opponents. Boston has played over the total in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. Toronto has played over the total in their last 9 straight. The over is a profitable 10-3-1 in the Leafs last 14 home games. In their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference team's the over is 6-0. The last 6 meetings between the clubs have gone over the total. Play the over.
Big Al McMordie
San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play:Los Angeles Clippers -2
At 10:35 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over San Antonio. Last night, the Spurs went into Arco Arena and upset Sacramento 90-88. Can Tim Duncan & Co. make it two straight road wins (and three in a row, overall)? According to my database, it's a longshot, as the Spurs are 21-42 their last 63 when playing without rest, including 8-27 ATS vs. a foe off a straight-up loss, and then 0-11 ATS their last 11 if that foe (off a loss) is also rested. Take the Clippers.
Frank Jordan
Fordham vs. Villanova
Play:Villanova -21
Fordham lost their opening game with a 65-62 home loss to Colorado as they head South to take on a Philadelphia rival number 25 Villanova. Villanova won their opening game at home over Albany 78-60 with a big first half and not looking back. Look for Villanova to come out again with a big first half to coast to the win. Play Villanova
John Fisher
Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills
Play:Under 41
I do not like this game as both teams have been inconsistant and on losing streaks. Buffalo is at home but are on the negative 6 end of TO where Browns are actuall on the positive 4 end. The BIG STAT is that both teams rank in the bottom tier when it comes to scoring TD's in the RED Zone. Both teams have been in the RZ more than 26 times but score TD's on 46% occasions. After 9 games that is an average of just 1+ TD per game. Look for Cold rainy weather and an inept TD ratio in RZ to make this like a 20-17 game. Take the UNDER 41