John Ryan
San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play:San Antonio Spurs +2.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on San Antonio (nba) – AiS shows a 73% probability that SA will win this game. AiS also reveals an 88% probability that the Clippers will not get more than 15 offensive rebounds. Clippers are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when they grab 10 to 15 offensive rebounds in a game this season. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 27-7 for 79% ATS since 2002. Play against home favorites that are poor three point shooting teams hitting =36.5% and is an average ball handling team yielding 14.5-16.5 TOPG facing a good ball handling team <=14.5 TOPG. Clippers are in a poor role noting they are 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in home games versus poor foul drawing teams attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons; 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. Take San Antonio.
Ben Burns
San Jose Sharks at Nashville Predators
Prediction: San Jose Sharks
This is the first game back home off an extended road trip for the Predators. That can be a difficult situation at the best of times. Making matters worse is that they'll be facing San Jose, one of the best teams in the league. The Sharks will be fully focused too, as the Predators just upset them at San Jose last week. A closer look at the stats from that game reveal that the Predators were fortunate to escape with a victory as they were outshot by a whopping 57-29 margin. Yes, the Sharks played last night. However, that's not necessarily a negative as we find them at a highly profitable 27-8 the last 35 times that they played the second of back to back games. Consider San Jose
Brian Hansen
Edmonton Oilers at Detroit Red Wings
Prediction: Detroit Red Wings
The Oilers are struggling. The Wings are one of the best teams in hockey - heck, they're the defeninding Stanley Cup champions!With the Wings at 33-10 the last 3 years when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season, there's only one to go in this one. Lay the wood!
David Malinsky
Missouri State @ Central Michigan
PICK: Central Michigan
Just another non-conference game? This is anything but that for Ernie Zeigler and his Chippewas. And in a game in which the matchups are favorable for them to turn the tables, we have excellent value to step in.
Zeigler made our ticket several times last season, and he is the kind of coach that we can work with well. He is never going to bring great talent to Mount Pleasant, but he has focused on getting hard-nosed players that will dig in deep at the defensive end, suiting his own personality (remember that he spent his five seasons prior to taking this job as a Ben Howland assistant at both Pittsburgh and U.C.L.A., which put him on our radar). In his first season he led C.M.U. to the nation’s 17th best turnaround, and LY the Chippewas finished at .500 in the M.A.C. for only the third time in 17 years. Baby steps, of course, but they are heading in the right direction. The defensive fundamentals will again be sound, and in 6-8/245 Chris Kellermann there is a legitimate go-to player, with Kellerman beginning his senior season with 28 points and 13 rebounds in that road win at Princeton. The confidence gained by getting that win without the suspended Marcus Van is a plus here, and we also like getting sharp-shooting guard Robbie Harman in a bounce-back mode – after knocking down 44.6 percent from 3-point range LY, good enough to finish #2 in the M.A.C., he took an 0-5 collar in Friday’s win.
So what does it mean for tonight? A high level of intensity in a special setting. They are promoting this as “Rock The Rose” night for the home opener, with a variety of prizes and giveaways to drive the crowd, and Zeigler and his players should feed off of the passion, plus the memory of that 90-76 loss to Missouri State at Springfield LY that left them with a bad taste, an outcome in which they believe they clearly got the worst of it from the officials. They were whistled for 31 fouls to just 13 for the Bears, and got out-scored 33-7 from the charity stripe. That is about as wide a gap as we ever find for a college game. From Kellerman - "We definitely owe them one from last year."
Not only do the Chippewas want this game, but they can get it. Cuonzo Martin is facing a most difficult time fitting the pieces together in his first season at Missouri State, with only eight players available right now, as Shane Laurie, Justin Fuehrmeyer, Derron Hobbs and Dominick Brumfield all remain sidelined. It is forcing playing time to freshmen Isaiah Rhine and John Hayward-Mayhew, and there were some aspects of their 75-60 loss at Auburn that were much worse than the score shows – they were soundly beaten despite knocking down 11-23 3-pointers, a most negative sign, and they were dominated inside by a mediocre Tiger front-court. Auburn had seven dunks as part of a 23-35 success rate inside the arc, won the boards easily, and would have blown the scoreboard wide open if not for missing half of their 28 free throw attempts. The Tigers made more 2-point shots (23) than Missouri State attempted inside (22), a sign of how one-sided the play was around the basket.
Scott Rickenbach
Ottawa Senators @ New York Rangers
PICK: Ottawa Senators
The Senators are a good sized dog tonight and they’ve burned me recently and this is part of the reason why I prefer not to use Ottawa as a “pay play” but there is still value with the Senators in this spot! Plus, at what is truly a nice underdog return, that’s why you’re reading about them here! The Senators have been getting their chances recently but just not cashing in! They’ve been getting shots on goal, creating offensive chances, and doing a good job defensively. This has included getting good goaltending as we noticed a change in this hockey club as soon as Alex Auld started getting more action between the pipes. After a solid winning streak, the Sens have now fallen victim to a tough losing skid. However, the team is still confident and they know their losses are not for a lack of work. The trouble is that the Senators have come up just short in many of their recent defeats. As for the Rangers, they are coming off of a bit of a “miracle win” as they rallied from a late two-goal deficit to defeat the Bruins in their most recent game. Although they got the win the Rangers have certainly not been the dominant team recently that they were earlier this season. We feel that, as a result, this is offering great line value with the Senators and we’ll take it!
LARRY NESS
Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
PICK: Oklahoma City Thunder
The good news for the Rockets tonight is that they are facing the Thunder (formerly the Sonics) and will be going for their ninth straight win over the Oklahoma City/Seattle franchise. The Rockets are just 5-4 on the season, despite opening 3-0, and have been frustrated by their inconsistent play. T-Mac is averaging just 16.7 PPG (shooting a career-low 38.7 percent from the floor), the lowest he's scored since his early days with the Raptors. He never averaged lower than 25.6 PPG (his high was 32.1) in four years with the Magic and he's averaged about 24 PPG in his first four years with the Rockets. Yao looks healthy (16.7-9.3) and Artest (14.2-5.0) has been an excellent addition. Second-year guard Aaron Brooks is averaging 11.4 PPG (up from 5.2 LY) but still, there's that 5-4 record. The problem has been a very tough schedule. After losing to Boston in Houston on November 4 (first loss of the season), the Rockets had a five-game road trip, ending with games at the Lakers, Suns and Spurs. Saturday night, they hosted the Hornets and now it's a road game at Oklahoma City. I can easily see the Rockets being 'flat' here against the Thunder. Durant is averaging 21.1 PPG (averaged 20.3 PPG as a rookie), Jeff Green looks greatly improved, upping his numbers from 10.5-4.7 last year to 15.2-6.3 TY and rookie guard Russell Westbrook is averaging 11.8 PPG. OKC is just 1-9 but I see them 'sneaking' under this number. Take the points.
DOC
San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Clippers
PICK: Los Angeles Clippers -2.5
We think this is a good spot to back the Clippers as a small home favorite. The Spurs will have all sorts of trouble until Ginobli and Parker return and, despite winning two straight this team still has major issues. The Clippers have been horrible when you look at their record but if you really compare the talent these two teams have on the court tonight with the Spurs missing these two key cogs then the Clippers should be favored by more here. Coach Dunleavy said at the start of this season that it would take some time for this team to gel and we expect there to be some value on this team as they continue to work better together and public confidence is at an all-time low. This team really does have the talent to compete for a playoff spot but they just haven’t put it together on the court yet but this team will start to play better ball and we want to be there backing them when the odds are right and value is present. The public is pounding the Spurs tonight and this is a great time to go against the majority and get some extra value out of the line.
Wunderdog
Eastern Michigan at Purdue
Pick: Purdue -21
Many wondered if when Gene Keady retired if Purdue could find its way back onto the national scene again. After a struggle, Matt Painter logged a 22-win season with the Boilers last year. This season, he has a team with Final Four potential, 28 years since their last appearance. Grant, Hummel and Moore all connected on over 43% from beyond the arc last season and return with Jajuan Johnson who is expected to come up big under the basket. The Boilermaker's have all the ingredients to find their way deep in the tournament. Eastern Michigan is off an injury-riddled 14-17 mark and just .500 in the MAC. The team is experienced inside and has a good PG in Carlos Medlock, but the depth, quickness, and athleticism on the perimeter for Purdue will cause this Eagle team many problems. Turnovers should mount and turn into some easy hoops, and Purdue's trio of marksman on the perimeter just won't be able to be defended. And if they get hot, this one could be over very early! I'll back Purdue in a rout here.
GREG SHAKER
Boise State Broncos at Siena Saints - Siena -12
This game is a no contest for the Saints. They have an extraordinary offensive scheme. Siena has been Number 1 or Number 2 in the MAAC in offense in each of Coach McCaffery's first three seasons. A big reason the Saints enter this year expected to repeat as MAAC champions is their offense, which again figures to be among the league's best. They are simply loaded. The motion offense that they run introduces surprise, because there are no set patterns. Instead, players make passes, drive to the basket, set screens or take shots by reacting to the defense. It's full-court ad-lib, and they do it very well. It is also impossible to prepare for and the primary reason why out of conference matchups they play, they win. The visiting Broncos cannot handle the home boys tonight. They did not on their home floor last year, losing 93-70. Siena won their exibition game verses Union 99-47. This one will not be that bad but it will be Blowout City as Boise cannot handle the quickness that the Saints have to obtain the easy shots. Let's not be afraid to lay these points. Additional Note: The court tonight is not blue.
SportsKingz
CLEVELAND / BUFFALO OVER 41
Indiancowboy COMP
Bills/Browns Under 40.5
The line opened up here at -5.5 and that is where it currently resides. The total opened up at 42 and it sits at 40. Cleveland is 3-6 and they have obviously packed it in for the season as they have decided to go ahead and start Quinn to give him some reps and possibly look into the future. Now, having said this, do note that Denver is obviously no fluke and the job they did at Cleveland as they went on the road to defeat Atlanta and give the Falcons their first loss of the season. Thus, it only puts up the effort that Cleveland did at home in a better light. Remember, there is chance of inclement weather in this game, and even a 50% chance of snow. I am not sure if the public knows this because they are riding the over to a tune of 2:1 here and yet the total has dropped here a couple of points. The bottom line here for me is I lean on Buffalo given that they are coming off 3 straight losses and of course still in the hunt for the playoffs albeit a bit fading, and a lean on the under. In fact, my comp pick will be on the under.