Stephen Nover
New York Knicks @ Phoenix Suns
PICK: New York Knicks
The Phoenix Suns are off to their worst start since 2003. Ironically that's the time when Mike D'Antoni became the Suns coach and transformed them into a championship contender.
D'Antoni, of course, is now with the Knicks. He's already made the Knicks a respectable team. The Knicks are just one game below .500 and have won three of their last four games.
Phoenix, on the other hand, has regressed under new coach Terry Porter. He's tried to improved Phoenix's defense by playing more traditional half-court. The results have been a 4-8 against the spread mark at home, Steve Nash's numbers being way down and the Suns giving up triple-digits in their last nine games, all of which have gone over the total.
The Knicks are playing extremely well right now as evidenced by five straight covers and a 7-1 against the spread mark in their last eight games. Point guard Chris Duhon is having a breakout season thanks to D'Antoni and Al Harrington has been red-hot.
You know the Knicks are going to play hard for D'Antoni in his return to Phoenix. I'll take this many points with the Knicks for a one-unit play.
Ted Sevransky
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Sacramento Kings
PICK: Over
Both the T-wolves and the Kings have been bogged down offensively in recent ballgames, facing some of the toughest defensive teams in the NBA. Minnesota failed to get out of the 80’s against the Lakers and Spurs in their last two games. Sacramento hoisted a whopping 98 shots against the Knicks on Saturday, but connected on only 36% of those attempts, including an awful 3-23 from three point land, managing only 90 in an ugly home loss to the Knicks.
Both Minnesota and Sacramento are looking to push the pace against opposing teams that are willing to run with them. New T-wolves head coach Kevin McHale: “We’ve got to get some pace in the game offensively. It’s an offense that should flow, and you shouldn’t have to look over at the coach very much. You should be up and down the floor….I like the versatility of the team. You know, Mike Miller can bring it down the floor. Rashad McCants can bring it down the floor. (Randy) Foye can bring it down the floor. (Ryan) Gomes can bring it down and get into operating spots. That's the vision when we talked about the team and the players, and that's how we're going to play.”
After getting booed out of the gym in their 24 point home loss to the Knicks on Saturday, I expect a far more focused performance from the Kings tonight. We saw this team beat the Lakers outright as double digit home underdogs, then hang tough with LA in the revenge rematch at the Staples Center last week, scoring 103 and 113 in those two ballgames. Expect a similar pace tonight between these two struggling teams, in a contest that we can expect to go up and Over the total. Take the Over.
LARRY NESS
Utah Jazz @ Boston Celtics
PICK: Boston Celtics
The Celtics won their first title since the "Larry Bird era" last year and the team's 22-2 start to this season is the best start in franchise history. Considering this franchise's history, that's saying something. The Celtics enter this game on a 14-game winning streak (10-4 ATS) overall and own a 13-1 home record. The Jazz come into this contest just 15-10, as Deron Williams began the season injured and while he's rounding into form (12.3-10.3 APG), he's yet to play in half of the team's games this season (12 of 25). Then there is power forward Carlos Boozer (20.5-11.7), who has missed Utah's last 13 games (Jazz are 7-6) and remains day-to-day. The Celtics don't have a dominating ATS mark at home this year (8-6) but they have had a knack of playing well when motivated by a top-notch opponent. The Celtics opened their home season against the Cavs and won just 90-85 and then on Nov 12, beat the then-undefeated Hawks by the slimmest of margins, 103-102. However, since that game, look what Boston has done in home games against quality teams. The Pistons visited Boston on Nov 20 and were beaten 98-80. The Magic came to town Dec 1 at 13-4 and were routed, 107-88. The up-and-coming Blazers came to Boston "to make a statement" on Dec 5 and left 93-78 losers. Then there was last year's 'darlings,' the Hornets, who lost Friday night in Boston, 94-82. Tonight it's the Jazz, who won 110-92 in Boston last March 14th, handing the champs their most lopsided defeat of the entire season at home, where the Celtics lost just seven times (including the playoffs). This Boston team seems to have a 'long' memory and also knows how to rise to a challenge. Lay the points.
David Malinsky
Cleveland State @ Syracuse
PICK: Cleveland State
All is not well at Syracuse right now. Yes, the Orange are a perfect 9-0, but it comes in a way that does a better job of fooling the markets into setting a high line than it does tell us that anything special is happening in upstate New York. Those tourney wins over Kansas and Florida three weeks ago? They mean less as we see subsequent showings from the Gators and Jayhawks, and they also came in games in which Jim Boeheim’s squad was able to get out and run, which is something that they do well. In fact, it may be all that they genuinely do well right now.
Syracuse does not have a great inside game, does not have much depth, and does not play the 2-3 zone anywhere near the level of efficiency we are accustomed to seeing. As such the Orange are vulnerable when the tempo is going to be slowed down, like tonight, and note that on this court teams playing at a moderate pace like rebuilding Virginia, and Cornell playing without key starters Louis Dale and Adam Gore, led Syracuse well into the second half. The Orange continue to be burdened by the Eric Devendorf distractions, with his career literally on the line pending a review of his suspension by the University judicial Board, and there is no reason to fear a dynamic performance tonight – they have to come right back to face Canisius on Wednesday, before heading to Memphis for Saturday’s showdown. And as for that rout of Long Beach State two days ago, note that it told us more about the fatigue for the visitors than anything special from the Orange – the 49ers did not have their legs, having traveled from a Thursday loss at Weber State, and shot an absurd 5-36 from 3-point range, having had no time to prepare for that zone defense.
Cleveland State brings a much different level of talent, and focus, tonight. Gary Waters got his Vikings to the N.I.T. LY and has enough talent for a run to the Big Dance this season, which means that this game becomes a major one from an at-large standpoint. He not only knows how to deal with the Boeheim zones (he went 5-3 ATS head-to-head in five seasons as the Rutgers coach), but has a tough veteran cast to get it done. Senior point guard Cedric Jackson is no stranger to a Big East environment, having started 35 games over two seasons with St. John’s before transferring, and 6-5/240 J’Nathan Bullock plays to his name up front, while 6-9/240 Chris Moore is also not going to get pushed around. This is a team that plays tenacious defense, holding both West Virginia and Butler to their season-lows in scoring in showdown games (those two shot a combined 35-106 from the field), and they will slow this into the kind of grinder game that the Orange do not like to play.
Jeff Benton
A couple of setbacks with the freebies the last two days, including Sunday’s terrible call on the Cardinals. Yet I’m still 14-4 with comp selections the last 18 days, and I look to improve that mark Monday by backing the Nuggets plus the points at Dallas.
Denver has been a totally different team since the arrival of Chauncey Billups, winning 15 of 19 games, including six of the last seven. The Nuggets are also 6-2 on the road during this 19-game stretch, including a win at Boston and forgivable losses at Cleveland and the Lakers. In fact, Denver’s 15-4 run began with a 108-105 home win over the Mavericks in Billups’ first game with his new club.
Meanwhile, that loss at Denver on Nov. 7 started a five-game losing skid for the Mavs, but they’ve since rebounded to win 11 of their last 13, including seven in a row at home. However, Dallas has been the epitome of a pointspread disaster at home, going 2-10 ATS, including four straight non-covers during the team’s current seven-game homestand. Among the teams the Mavs have struggled to put away on their own court: the Thunder (four-point win as a 13-point favorite); the Bobcats (five-point win as a 13-point favorite); the Hawks (two-point win as a 6½-point favorite); and the Pacers (three-point win as a seven-point favorite).
The point: If the Mavericks are having trouble putting away those weak teams – and make no mistake, Dallas had to work very hard to win its last two games against the Bobcats and Thunder – I just don’t see them being able to handle a quality foe like the Nuggets, who have put up 101 points or more in nine of their last 10 games, including averaging a whopping 119 ppg in their last three.
Denver has cashed in five straight meetings with Dallas, winning four of those games outright. The Nuggets are also 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against the stacked Southwest Division. On the flip side, Dallas is 1-8 ATS in its last nine against the Northwest Division, and going back to last year, the Mavs have failed to cover in 17 of their last 22 home games. Take the better team (Denver) and the bonus points.
5♦ DENVER NUGGETS
Tony Weston
The number for tonight is hovering at around 39 1/2 - 40 points and will likely move a little more between now and just before kickoff, but that won’t matter because these teams are rolling past that.
For the Eagles, the Over has hit in two of its last three games and is 3-2 in their last five games. The Over is also 2-0 in the team’s last two home games, where they’ve totaled, on average, 67.5 points per game in that stretch.
For the Browns, while they haven’t been doing much offensively, they have managed enough to see the Over come in four of their last six games, including last week on the road. In fact, the Over is 2-0 in their last two roadies.
Also consider that Monday night has usually meant high-scoring affairs this season as the Over is 12-3 on Monday night games. The Over is also 18-5 this season in games not played on Sundays.
These teams will put up the points once again and the Over will come in easily. Take the Over tonight.
3♦ BROWNS-EAGLES OVER
Drew Gordon
New York at PHOENIX -9
So coach D'Antoni heads back to his former employer, and everyone expects the Knicks to "win one for their head coach." Guys, were not writing fairy tales, were talking about the real world, and in the real world the Knicks are average at best. If any team is going to get up for this contest, it's going to be the Suns, looking to dispel what most people think was a mistake in changing coaches.
While it's unclear whether or not Shaq will play tonight, I'm expecting he will, and that of course is huge for the Suns. His presence allows Stoudemire to play his natural power forward spot, which has helped Amare flourish this season. Also, the debut of Jason Richardson went well, as he dropped in 21 points, shooting 50 percent from the floor. While Nash has voiced his concern about the Richardson trade, let's not be too quick to criticize it, as the Suns needed someone to take the pressure off Nash along the perimeter, and Richardson could very well be the answer.
Also, Knicks-backers must be concerned about their team's energy level, as they're playing their 4th straight roadie AND have the mighty Lakers on deck tomorrow night. Say what you will about the Knicks wanting to win this match up, but having Kobe and company waiting in the wings is a distraction.
Finally, from a match-up standpoint, Al Harrington will get all he can handle and then some from Stoudemire. The Knicks will be hard-pressed to match up with the Suns' frontcourt, and the addition of Richardson means Phoenix has a huge edge on the offensive end in the backcourt tonight. In the end, a loss here would all but invalidate the numerous moves the Suns have made from D'Antoni to Richardson. On the other hand, a decisive win would quiet their critics, and show the fans they're moving (or at least trying to move) in the right direction. Suns roll.
1♦ PHOENIX
GINA
Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors
The Warriors continue to struggle. Golden State has lost 11 of their last 13 games, 2-4 in its last 6 games at home. Go with the Magic to outscore the worst defense in the league. Orlando is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road and 4-1 ATS in its last 5 at Golden State
Orlando Magic -2
Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is a better team and should hammer the Browns, but laying 14 points with the Eagles is troublesome. The Browns have played their best in Monday night fights, 2-0 both straight-up and against the spread this season and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Crazy! Go with the struggling Browns to make this a fight and cover the spread. Cleveland is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven contests as an underdog.
Cleveland Browns +14
Mr A
Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles Defense will crush the Browns, mercy on third-string quarterback Ken Dorsey. Expect a one sided battle in Philadelphia. Cleveland has scored just 21 points in the last three games, all field goals. Take the Eagles for their third straight victory, likely a blowout.
Philadelphia Eagles -14
NBA
Atlanta Hawks -7½
Miami Heat -2½
Orlando Magic -4½
Johnny Guild
Utah Jazz at Boston Celtics
Utah has lost four of their last eight games overall and two of their last three on the road. Meanwhile, the surging Boston Celtics have won 14 consecutive games, 22-2 thus far this year. The Jazz have a big assignment against the defending champion Celtics and their tough defensive play. Making matters worse, Utah’s All-Star, power forward Carlos Boozer is out and point guard Deron Williams is struggling. Take the Celtics to grab a victory versus the Jazz at TD Banknorth Garden.
Boston Celtics -9
Youngstown St. Penguins +16
Syracuse Orange -13
Philadelphia Eagles -15.5
Wunderdog
Milwaukee at Miami
Pick: Milwaukee +4.5
Certainly two of the most improved teams in the NBA will be going at it in this one. The Bucks dropped 18 of their last 21 a year ago, while the Heat was the worst team in the league. While the Heat have won four of the last six, the losses were in the last two and decisive at that - losing by 14 and 16 points. The wins were not getting it done against the line as they are now just 1-6 ATS in their last seven, so this team has been playing below the line for quite awhile now. They have not relished the favorite's role either where they are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11. The Bucks, meanwhile, have been playing above the line all season as they have turned a nice profit on the road going 9-5 ATS including 5-3-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. The Bucks are a live dog here, and I'll back them with the points.
Henderson mill sports free play is tenn martin and middle tenn st under 141. does anyone have their regular plays?
LT Profits
The Pepperdine Waves have struggled offensively vs. Division I competition this season, and we do not expect that to change vs. a USC Trojans defense that is limiting opponents to 38.3 percent shooting overall.
Moreover, that average drops to 36.1 percent when USC is at home, so we do not see Pepperdine getting out of the 50s in this game. After all, if we take out their non-lined games, the Waves are averaging just 59.4 points vs. main board teams including only 55.7 points on the road. They should have trouble reaching even that modest average vs. this USC defense.
Now we are not prepared to lay this fat spread with a Trojans team that is 5-3 with an average winning margin of +10.1 points, which is less than half of this spread. However, we do like the Under here quite a bit, as if the Waves score, say, 55 points here, the Trojans would need to score at least 77 points for this game to go Over.
That is far from a given for a team averaging 71.6 points overall and 73.8 points at home, and that also figures to take the foot off the gas when they build a big lead here. Go Under this moderate posted total.
Pick: Pepperdine, USC Under 131
Ron Raymond
BOS / UTA Over 192
When UTAH Played as road team as a Underdog - During Last 3 Years - Lost Last Game by 9 Points or Less; The OVER is 16-4-0 for the Jazz in this spot the L3Y.
King Creole
BOS -8.5 vs UTA
The Celtics won their first title since the "Larry Bird era" last year and the team's 22-2 start to this season is the best start in franchise history. Considering this franchise's history, that's saying something. The Celtics enter this game on a 14-game winning streak (10-4 ATS) overall and own a 13-1 home record. The Jazz come into this contest just 15-10, as Deron Williams began the season injured and while he's rounding into form (12.3-10.3 APG), he's yet to play in half of the team's games this season (12 of 25). Then there is power forward Carlos Boozer (20.5-11.7), who has missed Utah's last 13 games (Jazz are 7-6) and remains day-to-day. The Celtics don't have a dominating ATS mark at home this year (8-6) but they have had a knack of playing well when motivated by a top-notch opponent. The Celtics opened their home season against the Cavs and won just 90-85 and then on Nov 12, beat the then-undefeated Hawks by the slimmest of margins, 103-102. However, since that game, look what Boston has done in home games against quality teams. The Pistons visited Boston on Nov 20 and were beaten 98-80. The Magic came to town Dec 1 at 13-4 and were routed, 107-88. The up-and-coming Blazers came to Boston "to make a statement" on Dec 5 and left 93-78 losers. Then there was last year's 'darlings,' the Hornets, who lost Friday night in Boston, 94-82. Tonight it's the Jazz, who won 110-92 in Boston last March 14th, handing the champs their most lopsided defeat of the entire season at home, where the Celtics lost just seven times (including the playoffs). This Boston team seems to have a 'long' memory and also knows how to rise to a challenge. Lay the points.