SPORTS ADVISORS
Green Bay (5-9, 7-7 ATS) at Chicago (8-6, 6-6-2 ATS)
The Bears will try to keep their slim playoff hopes alive tonight when they host the rival Packers at Soldier Field.
Chicago trails the Vikings in the race for the NFC North, and even though Minnesota lost at home to the Falcons on Sunday, Chicago still needs to win its final two games and hope the Vikings lose next week at the Giants to claim the North title. The Bears are also barely alive in the NFC wild-card chase.
The Bears haven’t been on the field since Dec. 11 when they edged the Saints 27-24 in overtime, pushing as a three-point home favorite. Chicago blew a 21-10 fourth-quarter lead, then went on a 60-yard drive in the final 3:03 to get the tying field goal at the end of regulation, with QB Kyle Orton going 8-of-11 on the critical drive. RB Matt Forte, who is expected to play despite a toe injury, needs just 69 rushing yards to break the franchise’s rookie rushing record of 1,183 set by Anthony Thomas in 2001.
Green Bay has lost four straight (0-4 ATS) and six of its last seven (3-4 ATS), including last week’s 20-16 setback in Jacksonville as a 2 ½-point chalk. The Packers’ last three defeats have come by a total of 11 points, and 38 of the 79 points they’ve given up in the last three contests have come in the fourth quarter. Mike McCarthy’s squad has dropped four in a row on the road (2-2 ATS), and they’re allowing 27.1 points and 132.9 rushing yards per game away from Lambeau Field this season.
Five weeks ago, the Packers destroyed the Bears 37-3 as 3½-point ‘dogs at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, finishing with a 427-234 edge in total offense. The home team has won the last two matchups between these two (2-0 ATS) after a four-game streak by the visitor from 2005-07 (3-0-1 ATS). Also, the Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine trips to Soldier Field. Finally, the straight-up winner is 9-0-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Green Bay is 26-26-1 SU and 28-24-1 ATS all-time on Monday night (1-1 SU and ATS this year), while the Bears are 18-33 SU and 17-32-2 ATS under the Monday spotlight, including just 7-13-1 ATS at Soldier Field.
Green Bay is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games after a non-cover, but otherwise the team remains on positive ATS streaks of 13-5-1 on the road, 9-3-1 as a road ‘dog and 5-0 against NFC North rivals (all this season). Chicago is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five after a straight-up win and 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 as a home favorite, but the Bears are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five December games.
The Packers are on a bevy of “over” streaks, including 22-8-1 overall, 21-8-2 against NFC competition, 7-3 on Mondays, 9-2-1 on the road and 6-1 against division rivals. The Bears are on “over” runs of 20-7 at home, 20-9-1 as favorites, 5-1 in Week 16 games and 5-0 at home against teams with a losing road record.
Finally, the over is 20-6-2 in non-Sunday NFL games this year, including 12-3-1 in Monday night contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
Houston (18-9, 14-13 ATS) at New Jersey (13-13, 14-12 ATS)
The Rockets will try to extend their winning streak to four when they travel to East Rutherford, N.J., to take on the Nets inside the IZOD Center.
Houston, which is on the second leg of a four-game road trip, is coming off Saturdya’s 109-102 win over the Timberwolves, cashing as a 5½-point favorite. The Rockets have won five of their last six overall (4-2 ATS), they’ve scored at least 107 points in each of their last four wins and they’ve hit the century mark in points in 11 of their last 12 victories.
New Jersey has dropped five of its last seven SU and ATS, including Saturday’s 106-103 loss to the Heat as a 4½-point home favorite. With that defeat, the Nets are now just 5-9 SU and ATS at the IZOD Center, including 1-4 SU and ATS in the last five. The SU winner has cashed in all 14 of New Jersey’s home games and the winner is also 19-0 ATS in the team’s last 19 overall.
The Rockets have dominated this series over the last four years, winning seven of the last eight (6-1-1 ATS), including the last four in a row (4-0 ATS). In last year’s trip to New Jersey, Houston scored a 96-89 win, cashing as a 4½-point favorite, then followed it up with a 91-73 win in Texas as an 11-point chalk. The Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to New Jersey, and the road team is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes between these two.
Houston is on positive pointspread streaks of 49-18-1 against teams from the Eastern Conference, 13-5 as a road favorite and 8-3 on the road against teams with a losing home record. Meanwhile the Nets are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven against Southwest Division squads, but they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after a non-cover and 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a ‘dog.
The Rockets have gone over the total in 11 of their last 15 overall, eight of their last nine on the road and 11 of their last 16 against Atlantic Division teams. Also, New Jersey has topped the total in seven of its last 10 after a non-cover, but otherwise the Nets are on under streaks of 7-1 on Mondays and 4-1 when playing on one day of rest. Finally, the under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings between these teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON
Portland (17-10, 13-14 ATS) at Denver (17-10, 15-11-1 ATS)
The Blazers are looking for their third straight win when they head to Denver to take on the suddenly slumping Nuggets inside the Pepsi Center in the first game of a two-night, home-and-home series.
Portland got a career-night from third-year guard Brandon Roy on Thursday as he poured in 52 points to lead the Blazers to a 124-119 come-from-behind victory over the Suns, cashing as a four-point home favorite. Roy has averaged 36.4 points per game in his last five, and he’s just one of three players – along with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade – to average at least 23 points, five assists and four rebounds per game this season.
Denver has followed up a four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS) with a three-game SU and ATS losing skid. After getting blown out 105-88 by the Cavs as a two-point home chalk on Friday, the Nuggets went to Phoenix on Saturday and fell 108-101 as a 5½-point underdog. Carmelo Anthony was averaging nearly 30 points a game during the Nuggets’ four-game winning streak, but he’s putting up just 15 points a game during the three-game slide.
George Karl’s Nuggets have won seven of the last 10 meetings with Portland (6-4 ATS), including four of the last six (SU and ATS). The last time these two met in the Mile High City was a year ago, when the Blazers got a 116-105 win as a nine-point pup. Despite that result, Denver is 22-8-1 ATS in the last 31 series clashes, including 11-5 ATS in the last 16 at the Pepsi Center.
Portland is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after getting three or more days off, but otherwise the Blazers are on ATS slides of 2-7 overall, 0-5 on the road, 1-4 against the Northwest Division and 6-20 on Mondays. Denver is on positive ATS streaks of 5-2 after a straight-up loss and 5-1 after a day off.
For the Blazers, the under is on streaks of 10-4 overall, 19-7 as a road ‘dog, 6-1 on the highway and 22-9-1 when getting at least three days off. The under is also 4-1 in Denver’s last five overall, but otherwise the Nuggets are on “over” streaks of 38-17 against the Northwest Division, 7-2 at home and 8-3 as a favorite. Also, the over is 7-3 in the last 10 overall meetings between these rivals and 9-2 in the last 11 clashes in Denver.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(24) Marquette (9-2, 2-4-1 ATS) at N.C. State (7-1, 3-1 ATS)
The Wolfpack will try to remain perfect inside the RBC Center in Raleigh, N.C., when they entertain Marquette in a non-conference showdown.
North Carolina State’s only loss this season came back on Dec. 6, a 72-67 defeat at the hands of Davidson in a neutral-site game in Charlotte, N.C., but the Wolfpack got the cash as eight-point ‘dogs. They have since won three straight at home, including Saturday’s 78-58 blowout of Lipscomb in an unlined contest. N.C. State has been getting it done on defense this season, allowing just 58.4 points and 35.4 percent shooting.
Marquette began last week with Tuesday’s 80-68 loss to Tennessee, falling short as a 5½-point underdog, but bounced back with Friday’s 94-77 home win over Western Carolina, pushing as 17-point favorites. The Golden Eagles average 81 points per game and have reached the 100-point mark twice this season.
N.C. State carries negative pointspread trends of 8-22-1 overall, 4-11-1 at home and 3-7 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Golden Eagles are just 0-4-1 ATS in their last five overall, but they are on positive pointspread streaks of 8-3 on the road and 7-3 on the road against teams with a winning home record.
For Marquette, the over is on runs of 41-20-2 at home and 40-16-2 on the road against teams with a winning home record. The Wolfpack are on “over” streaks of 19-7 overall, 4-0 at home, 5-1-1 against the Big East and 11-1 after a straight-up win.
N.C. State holds a 2-1 all-time edge over Marquette, but the schools haven’t met since the 1991-92 season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Georgia Tech (7-2, 3-2 ATS) at USC (7-3, 4-5 ATS)
Georgia Tech concludes its two-game West Coast swing with a stop at the Galen Center in Los Angeles to face the Trojans in a non-conference matchup.
The Yellow Jackets played in nearby Malibu, Calif., on Saturday, hammering Pepperdine 86-58 and cashing as a 15-point favorite. In two road games this season, Georgia Tech is averaging 84 points and shooting 50 percent from the field, including 33.3 percent from the 3-point line.
USC is 6-0 at home this season (2-3 ATS), but barely edged North Dakota State 61-57 in a non-lined contest Saturday. Like Georgia Tech, the Trojans also destroyed Pepperdine, beating the Waves 91-77 a week ago but coming up short as 25½-point home favorites. USC, which has alternated ATS wins and losses in its last seven lined games, gives up just 60.2 points and 37.8 percent shooting inside the Galen Center.
While the Yellow Jackets are 3-1 ATS in their last four lined games overall and 6-0 ATS when coming off a victory of more than 20 points, the Trojans are on negative ATS streaks of 1-4 after a straight-up win, 1-5 against teams with a winning record and 1-8 at home against teams with a winning road record.
For Georgia Tech, the under is on streaks of 5-2 on the road, 7-3 in non-conference games and 4-1 on Mondays. Conversely, the Trojans are on “over” runs of 9-3 at home, 4-0 in non-conference games and 4-1 on Mondays.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH
CKO/CTO
10* CHICAGO over Green Bay
Late Score Forecast:*CHICAGO 31 - Green Bay 16
After a mid-season burst of promise, Green Bay—the defending NFC North champs—saw its campaign slide downhill, due mostly to a declining defense (speedy MLB Nick Barnett out) and lack of a pass rush, which, of course, is crucial in these pass-happy days of the NFL. Now, stalwart RT Mark Tauscher is also gone, and the offense (just 37 total points the last two weeks) has also turned inconsistent. Meanwhile, Chicago is hot on the heels of the Vikings in the North, and HC Lovie Smith (6-3 vs. G.B.) puts special emphasis on every game vs. the rival Packers.
CREIGHTON over Fresno State (at Las Vegas)...There are some intriguing new faces on Fresno’s roster (such as 6-7 frosh dunkmeister George & 6-4 Arizona State transfer Seay), but Bulldogs still very much a work in progress for HC Cleveland, with eight newcomers and just one returning starter from last season on hand. Big experience edge to Creighton and its versatile, veteran backcourt that appears back in sync after HC Altman and LY’s MVC Frosh of the Year PG Stinnett (benched recently) patched up their differences. Note Bluejay Gs Woodfox & Korver both hitting better than 50% beyond arc! CREIGHTON 77 - Fresno State 57 RATING - 10
Nelly’s Green Sheet
CHICAGO (-5) Green Bay (42)
This NFC North clash still has significant meaning and the Packers would love to knock the Bears out of the playoffs despite a horribly disappointing season and a four-game losing streak. Chicago was very fortunate to win last week and the defense has not lived up to expectations this season. Green Bay dominated the Bears earlier this season and could win again in this match-up. PACKERS BY 3
MARC LAWERENCE PLAYBOOK
CHICAGO over Green Bay by 7
Another Monday night division tilt finds one team streaking to the playoff wire against another that’s pulled a hamstring. The Bears figure to benefit from last week’s home overtime win against the Saints as home teams off a Thursday home win have responded with aplomb, going 14-6-1 ATS. Green Bay’s 1-4 ATS mark on the Monday night road is a major concern for Packer backers, too. Look for Chicago to avenge its worse loss in this series since 1994 as the Cheeseheads’ fondue finish does them in again.
THE GOLD SHEET
*CHICAGO 30 - Green Bay 17—When Lovie Smith took over Chicago in 2004, one of his top goals was to end the recent domination of the Bears by their arch-rivals in Green Bay. He has mostly succeeded, going 6-3 SU (5-3-1 vs. the spread). But Smith says his team was humiliated in its first meeting TY, so look for nothing less than an ultra-fierce effort as Chicago fights to make the postseason. With Kyle Orton stabilizing the passing game, Matt Forte (1115 YR, 58 recs.) pounding overland, and the Packer defense caving, Lovie gets his revenge.
(08-G. BAY 37-Chi. 3...G.24-9 G.38/200 C.20/83 G.23/30/1/227 C.17/33/0/156 G.0 C.1) (07-Chi. 27-G. BAY 20...G.18-16 G.22/121 C.33/82 G.29/40/2/318 C.15/25/1/203 C.0 G.3)
(07-CHI. 35-G. Bay 7...C.14-13 C.45/139 G.21/125 G.17/32/2/149 C.8/14/0/101 C.0 G.0) (08-G. BAY -3' 37-3; 07-Chicago +3 27-20, CHICAGO +8 35-7...SR: Chicago 90-80-6)
Pointwise
CHICAGO 24 - Green Bay 22
Four straight losses for Green Bay, both SU & ATS (minus 43½ pts), allowing 32.5 ppg in those 4. Now 6 losses by 4 pts or less, SU. Can't blame Rodgers, whose 23/12 mark is more than a bit respectable. But no running game (Grant: <4.0 ypr), no running "D" (#27). The Bears are basically 1½ back, with 2 to play, but still hoping. The chalk is 5-0-1 ATS in Chicago games, by 74 pts ATS, but note a 345-226 yd deficit in its win over the Saints. And check just 81 RYpg, offensively, in 5 of last 6 games. Bears just 2-7 ATS hosting GreenBay. Packer demise unexpected, but this is a good'un
Dave Cokin
San Francisco @ San Jose State
Play: San Francisco +6
The Dons are not ready to contend yet in the WCC, but Rex Walters has succeeded in changing the mindset and the work ethic with this team. USF has been a pleasant early season surprise and I think they've got a decent shot on the road tonight against San Jose State. This is a very close game on my numbers, and with the price where it is, I'll go ahead and recommend San Francisco.
Jimmy The Moose
Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres
Prediction: Over
The Penguins have played over the total in 4 straight and in 5 of their last 6 games. In their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record the over is 6-1. The over is 4-1 in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference team's. Buffalo has played over the total in 6 of their last 8 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. In their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record the over is 7-1. The last 4 meetings between the clubs have played over the total. Play the over.
JIM FEIST
SACRAMENTO KINGS / SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Take Under
San Antonio can still bring the defense, on a 4-2 run under the total. The Spurs are 4th in the NBA allowing 93.8 ppg and they play their best defense at home, here in the Alamodome. Sacramento is in a slump, losing 3 in a row, scoring just 90, 96 and 77 points. They've scored under 100 points in 8 of the last 11 games. These teams have met once and the game sailed under the total in a 90-88 San Antonio win, with just 178 points scored. Look for a similar defensive battle. Play the Kings/Spurs under the total.
Jeff Benton
No doubt, Denver is reeling a little bit right now, with three straight losses to the Rockets, Cavaliers and Suns, giving up 108, 105 and 108 points in the three defeats. Meanwhile, the Blazers have enjoyed three full days off since Thursday’s thrilling come-from-behind 124-119 home win over the Suns, a game in which guard Brandon Roy went off for 52 points.
All that said, the oddsmakers have over-adjusted the price in this contest – if this game had been played as recently as six days ago, Denver would be laying about twice as many points as they’re laying tonight. So we’re getting great value with the Nuggets, who despite Friday’s no-show at home against Cleveland are still 9-3 SU in their last 12 home games. They’re also 8-3 as a favorite of less than nine points this year. On the other hand, Portland has cashed just twice in its last seven games, and it 6-10 ATS on the road this season, including 0-5 ATS in the last five trips.
Additionally, the Blazers recently have struggled to cover the spread against the Nuggets, both overall (8-22-1 ATS last 31 meetings) and in the Mile High City (5-11 ATS last 16 trips to Denver).
No doubt, these are both quality teams, but I really think the Nuggets are getting the short shrift from the oddsmakers, especially when you consider that George Karl’s team had suffered consecutive losses and consecutive non-covers just once this season prior to its current 0-3 SU and ATS mini-slump. Take the value with the home team.
3♦ DENVER NUGGETS
Matt Rivers
For Monday take the Blazers in the Mile High City.
Chauncey Billups came to town in that Allen Iverson deal and made the Nuggets look like a world beater. But my friend that was then and reality is now.
Denver is just not that good and played well above its talent for about that month period and now is back to what they are. Sure Carmelo Anthony can fill it up and Billups is a solid point guard. There are also a few other pieces like Nene and JR Smith but in the end this team is average and out West that may not even mean a playoff spot when all is said and done.
Portland is a young team that certainly is better at the Rose Garden but with Greg Oden around dominating the paint and the young studs like Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge I can't help but believe the 17-10 Blazers are the more legit team that will last.
The Blazers did have that recent poor three game losing skid but after pounding Sacramento by nine billion and getting past the high flying Suns this team is back on track and ready to take first place all by themselves tonight. Meanwhile the Nugs just lost a third straight in Phoenix on Saturday night and are 0-3 both SU and ATS. They also have not had a full four days off like today's visitors and in the end I am all about Portland tonight!
Karl Garrett
Green Bay at CHICAGO -4
Let's see, Thursday night's game in the NFL went OVER the total. Saturday night's game went OVER the posted total, and last night's Carolina-NY Giants game also went OVER the posted total...gee, you see a pattern here?
Thursday night prime time games finshed the season at 6-0-1 OVER the posted price, while we are on a 12-2-2 OVER run under the Monday night lights this season through the first 16 games.
Hard to buck those numbers, so I won't, as a little cold weather has never bothered these two cold weather teams before.
The first meeting this year produced a lop-sided 37-3 Green Bay win, I don't think we are looking at carbon copy tonight, but I certainly feel you can count on both teams cracking the end zone with proficiency tonight at Soldier Field.
The weeknight prime time games this year have somehow seemed to find their way OVER the total, no matter how low-scoring they appear on paper.
Same outcome tonight, as the Pack and Bears make it another OVER under the Monday night lights.
3♦ OVER
Bobby Maxwell
Houston -4 at NEW JERSEY
The Rockets are on a three-game winning streak and now they are in New Jersey to take on the Nets. We see this one becoming a blowout as Houston takes it right to the Nets.
Houston has won seven of the last eight meetings with the Nets and gone 6-1-1 ATS in the process, including a 4-0 SU and ATS run over the last two years. The Rockets went to New Jersey last season and got a 96-89 win as a 4 1/2-point favorite and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Jersey.
The Rockets beat the T-Wolves 109-102 on Saturday, narrowly cashing as a 5 1/2-point favorite. They've got the offense goin lately, scoring at least 107 points in each of their last four wins and hitting the century mark in 11 of their last 12 wins.
New Jersey has lost five of seven SU and ATS and they are just 5-9 SU and ATS at home this year, including 1-4 in the last five.
Houston is 13-5 ATS as a road favorite and 8-3 ATS on the road against teams with a losing home record. Look for the Rockets to win this one by 15. Play Houston.
3♦ HOUSTON
Sports Gambling Hotline
Portland at DENVER -3
The price looks right tonight at the Pepsi Center for a play on the slumping Denver Nuggets.
Denver has lost their last 3, both straight up, and against the spread, while Portland comes to the Mile High City having won and covered their last pair of games.
Expect the Nuggets to nip the losing streak in the bud against a team that have held the upper-hand against recently. Denver has captured 4 of the last 6 series meetings straight up, and they have covered in 2 in a row, and 4 of the last 5 series meetings.
Denver is still a tough 9-4 straight up at home this year, and 7-5-1 against the spread in those 13 home dates.
Portland has played their last 3 at home, and now they must hit the road where they are just 6-10 against the number thus far.
Play on the Nuggets.
2♦ DENVER
Tommy the Swami
SAN / SAC Over 195
Kings will have tired legs on defense as this is their 4th road game in a row and 3rd rd game in nites. Teams off 3(+) road losses, playing their 3rd road gm in 4 days are 65% OVER S1996.Spurs have found the home nets very friendly lately, scoring 434 pts at the Alamo Dome their last 4 -108 ppg avg.Sac- OV 21-14 off 3(+) Unders - OV 12-5 L3Ys as 12.5 to 18 rd dog- Ov 13-5 L3ys away when ttl is 195 to 199.5- OV 28- 14 vs Soutwest Div- OV 62-43 with revenge- OV 23-13 with home loss revenge- OV 23-13 off 3 losses.