Big Al Mcmordie
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Prediction: Green Bay Packers
At 8:35 pm, our member selection is on the Green Bay Packers plus the points over Chicago. The Bears must win to make the playoffs, but as I discussed yesterday in my analysis of the Jets/Seahawks game, just because a team "needs to win" doesn't mean that it will. And, in actuality, it usually doesn't cover the spread. We saw that phenomenon in the Seahawks' upset of the Jets, as well as in the Bills' upset of the Broncos on Sunday. Don't be surprised if the Green Bay Packers step up and defeat their hated rivals at Soldier Field tonight. Take the points.
Carlo Campanella
Marquette at N.C. State
Prediction: Marquette
NC State is 7-1 SU, including 6-0 at home and has home court advantage on Monday night, but still finds themselves in the home Dog role against 9-2 Marquette. Not biting with this home Dog as we find NC State at 0-7 ATS hosting Big East teams since 1997! Without covering in this Situation the past 10 years, we'll lay the small number with a Marquette squad that's won 4 of their last 5 games and averaging a very solid 83 points per game this year.
7* Play On Marquette
Scott Spreitzer
Wake Forest at East Carolina
Prediction: Wake Forest
I went against these Pirates a few days ago and cashed with NC State. The Wolfpack closed the deal in late fashion, but I expect the Demon Deacons to have little trouble starting much earlier in this one. The Pirates have built their 8-2 record against some serious creampuffs. The best thing about this matchup is that ECU will look to play an uptempo style, which plays right into the hands of the high-scoring Deacs. Wake is averaging 83.6 ppg, but even in games where the opponent has tried to slow things down, the ACC entry has rolled to big wins. Winston-Salem and Wright State both forced a deliberate pace, yet WF won by 31 and 13 points, respectively. No less than six players are averaging between 7.7 and 19.6 ppg for coach Dino Gaudio. Five of those players are scoring in double-figures, led by Jeff Teague. That spells trouble for ECU. The Pirates biggest problems last season came on the defensive end and in the rebounding department. They have really played just two, somewhat, "step-up" games during their 8-2 start, losing to George Mason and NC State. The Pirates allowed too many second chance points against the Patriots, and couldn't stay with the Wolfpack on the defensive end, allowing NC State to hit 52% of their shots. Most preseason predictions had the Pirates finishing 11th in Conf-USA, just ahead of Rice. While that may be a couple of spots too low, I don't believe it's too far off. The defense just hasn't proven it can hang with a scoring unit like Wake Forest. Finally, the Pirates are 1-2 ATS this season, and 10-24 ATS the last 34 times against winning teams. And, they're 0-2 this season, and 2-12 ATS the last 14 times against strong defensive teams, those that allow less than 65 ppg. Look for the Demon Deacons to grab the comfortable win and cover on Monday night. Wake Forest, minus points.
Sportsbettingstats
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
The Packers come into this game after losing to the Jaguars 20-16, while the Bears beat the Saints in OT in their last game. The Packers started the season well winning their first 2 games before losing their next 3, but regrouped and won their next 2 for a respectable 4-3 record. However, since then the Packers have struggled, as they have lost 6 of their last 7 games and can only play spoiler to the Bears playoff hopes. The Bears need to win this game to stay in the playoff picture. The Packers are led by QB Aaron Rodgers (3470 yds 23 TD 12 INT) and his main targets are Greg Jennings (69 yds 1153 yds 7 TD) and Donald Driver (62 rec 838 yds 4 TD). The Bears are led by QB Kyle Orton (2586 yds 15 TD 10 INT) and his main targets are Devin Hester (43 rec 568 yds 3 TD) and Greg Olsen (45 rec 495 yds 3 TD). The Bears rushing attack is led by rookie RB Matt Forte (1115 yds 7 TD).
Staff Pick: This is a playoff game for the Bears, as they cannot afford to lose this game. The Bears need to forget the last time they played the Packers, as they were crushed at Lambeau 37-3 in the middle of November. The Bears will look to run the ball and control the game on the ground, as Matt Forte, who is the 8th leading rusher in the NFL, will look to exploit the 24th ranked defense of the Packers, which is weak at defending the run. The Bears D is ranked 17th in the league and while they are legit at defending the run they are weak at defending the pass. That is not good, as even though Aaron Rodgers has not let the Cheese heads forget about Favre, yet, he has put up good numbers. Since the Packers blew out the Bears Rodgers has been up and down, as he has 10 TD's since the game, but also 7 INT's. The Packers have given up 4th quarter leads in their last 3 losses. The Bears have to contain Rodgers, as they do not have the offensive firepower if the game becomes a shootout. Look for the Bears to control the game on the ground and for Forte to have a big game. The Bears will win this home game and keep their post-season hopes alive.
Bears 28 Packers 24
Vegas Experts
Houston Rockets at New Jersey Nets
The Rockets have owned this particular head to head matchup, winning and covering the last four meetings. New Jersey has scored 91 points or less in all four games. Nets have been a pretty crummy home team as well this season, winning and covering just five times in 14 chances. Since 1996, they are just 26-46 ATS in this price range (3.5 to 6.5 points) as a home dog. Houston is playing well now with wins in five of six games and they've scored 100+ in the L4 wins.
Play on: Houston
Tom Freese
Toronto at La Clippers
Los Angeles is 6-1 ATS off a straight up loss and they are 4-0 ATS off an ATS loss. The Clippers are 9-4 ATS their last 13 games and they are 4-1 ATS vs. an opponent that 100 or more points on their last game. Toronto is 18-39-1 ATS their last 58 games and they are 7-20-1 ATS their last 28 games as underdogs. The Raptors are 1-7 ATS when playing with one day of rest and they are 1-5-1 ATS their last 7 road games. PLAY ON LA ClIPPERS -
Frank Jordan
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Play: Los Angeles Lakers -10.5
The Lakers are 21-5 but 4 of those 5 loses have come on the road. So have 7 wins, but they have lost back-to-back games to the Florida teams as they head to Memphis. Memphis has also lost back-to-back games at home to New Orleans and Charlotte. Memphis is 9-17 on the year and in last place in the Southwest division, but have played well at home with a 7-7 record. In Pau Gasol's return back to Memphis after being traded last year look for the Lakers to roll as they get back to winning and Kobe does not allow the Lakers to fall into a losing streak. Play LA Lakers
Brian Hansen
Phoenix Coyotes at Edmonton Oilers
Prediction: Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers will try to avoid a third straight loss at Rexall Place as the Phoenix Coyotes head north on Monday, looking to earn at least a point for the seventh straight game; however I look for the Oilers to have a big night! Four of the Oilers' last five games have been at home, but they've lost three of them, getting shut out by Florida and giving up nine goals to Chicago before Friday's 3-2 shootout loss to Anaheim. After going 23-17-1 at Rexall Place last season, they're 4-5-3 there in 2008-09, losing eight of their last 10 at home; look for a big turnaround this evening. In fact this is a bad spot for the Coyotes who are just 5-6 their last 11 after a win by 2 goals or more! Play on EDMONTON!
Nostradamus
Marquette -2
Ga Southern +22.5
Tenn St +23.5
Denver -3.5
Edmonton -135
Brett Maverick Sports
Rice +17.5 One Star
Yesterday we hammered the Casino with the Titans crushing a tired Steelers team and Seahawks winning as a dog as they send their coach out a winner in his last home game. Today we have a never lost perfect angle MNF winner.Oklahoma has enjoyed the spotlight with the cameras rolling on what could be the best player in America in big TV games. Tonight they go into Rice with little motivation and a big number to cover. Rice is a money making 24-9 ats at home vs teams who score over 77ppg. They are also 1-0 vs the number when playing OU over the last three years. Take Rice to play hard and stay under the big number at home.
Alex Smart
Seton Hall -3.0
The Seton Hall Pirates (8-2) of the Big East (6-4) visit CAA opponents James Madison tonight in a non conference battle . The Pirates are off a ugly heart breaking loss to IUPUI on Saturday night, and will be in a big time bounce back mode in this spot. HC Bobby Gonzalez will not tolerate another lackluster effort , which makes me confident in my assessments.
James Madison has won their last 2- road games against lower tier teams (Radford, Morehead State), but in no way will that prepare them for the assault they will face this evening, especially considering the type of lowly defense, they have been playing.
JMU has allowed their opposition to convert at a .44% rate this season (247/560), including .49% from the field and a hefty .39% from beyond the arc. The Dukes only saving grace has been an up beat offense, that is not scared of taking 3 point shots. It must be noted that Seton Hall has covered 13 of their L/16 against a team that attempts 8 or more treys per game.
I know John Garcia one of the Pirates top rebounders is probably going to miss this game , but I am betting Eugene Harvey, Paul Gause and Jeremy Hazzel will do more than enough offensive damage to offset any player losses.
Projected score:Seton Hall 83 JMU 75
LT Profits
Utah State -4.5
The Utah State Aggies are off to an excellent start this season while the Utah Utes have stumbled a bit of late, so look for the Aggies to prevail at home in this in-state rivalry.
Utah State is now 8-1 after a 10-point road win at Idaho State on Saturday, with the only lo being by five points vs. BYU on a neutral court. The Aggies are always tough at home, and this year is no exception as they are 4-0 straight up in this building with a whopping average winning margin of +26.0 points per game.
They have also been very friendly to their supporters thus far, going 4-1 against the spread with the only non-cover coming as huge favorites in a game vs. UC Irvine that they still won by 12 points, a margin that would be more than good enough to cash this tickets.
Utah got off to a 5-1 start, but they have lost three of their last four games to fall to 6-4 SU. Yes, on3 of the losses was at Oklahoma, which is certainly forgivable, but the other two losses during this slump came as favorites vs. Idaho State and California, and we feel that this is a much tougher assignment than those two schools.
Utah is also shooting just 42.2 percent from the floor on the road this season while the Aggies are averaging an impressive 82.0 points here at home, so look for a rather comfortable Utah State victory.
Pick: Utah State -4.5
Drew Gordon
Valparaiso at CENTRAL FLORIDA -4
Strong revenge angle here, as the Crusaders pounded the Knights just over a month ago 69-52 in Indiana, and now its payback time. Both teams have been notoriously inconsistent on the road, and when you throw in the fact Valpo is just 1-7 SU since beating Central Florida, the play here rest squarely on the revenge-seeking Knights.
Just so you can get an idea of how road-weary this Crusaders team is, note that their only away win this season came at Youngstown State in a non-lined contest. Otherwise, we've seen them lose at La Salle, at Cleveland St (badly), and at Miami (OH), showing a incredible inability to score when they travel, averaging just 53 ppg on 42% shooting.
Herein lies the problem for Valpo, because not only will the Knights be looking to bounce back from their atrocious effort against the Crusaders in their last meeting, but also from a double-digit drubbing at the hands of Florida in their last game overall. Plenty of motivation for the Knights, and I say Jermaine Taylor and company respond tonight at home.
Bottom line, redemption-minded Knights protect their house, exacting a little revenge in the process, en route to a solid home win and cover Monday night.
Take Central Florida over Valparaiso in this college hoops match up.
3♦ CENTRAL FLORIDA
LA Lakers at MEMPHIS +10'
In case you've been living under a rock, its pretty clear the guys in Vegas are not going to make it easy to bet the public's darling - the LA Lakers - having gone an atrocious 1-10 ATS over their last 11 games overall! More of the same tonight, as the average bettor sees a massive blowout here, while I couldn't disagree more and here's why:
First and foremost, some may be surprised to know that the Griz have played the Lakers very tough, covering 5 of their last 6 meetings, including 3 outright upsets! Also, the Lakers have had their issues when traveling to Memphis, going just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meeting there! In other words, before you jumping on the Lakers bandwagon tonight, understand that the series history tells a completely different story.
Second, let's not forget, the Lakers have a big-time match up with Chris Paul and Hornets on deck tomorrow, so you'll excuse them if there's a lack of effort against the 9-17 Grizzlies. Bryant and company could care less about today's game, as beating New Orleans is a lot higher up on their priority list... And you know who comes after the Hornets? That's right, the Boston Celtics, so you better believe staying focused for tonight's game will be difficult to say the least.
Finally, while clearly the Lakers are the more talented team, the numbers over their last 5 games are relatively close, especially considering the hefty spread. Memphis may not be the offensive juggernaut the Lakers are, but their defense has held fast, allowing 97 ppg over that 5-game span (3-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS). Long story short, while the Lakers win this game SU, their effort and focus will be elsewhere, and after watching them drop 10 of their last 11 ATS, the only play here is on the Griz at home.
Take Memphis plus the points over the LA Lakers in this NBA match up.
2♦ MEMPHIS
Mr A
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
The Packers pounded the Bears 37-3, at home in Week 11, but they haven't won since, Green Bay is 0-4 both straight-up and against the spread in their last four games. Both defenses have been ineffective, but (8-6) Bears are playing better, while the (5-9) Packers are struggling. Take Chicago to keep their playoff hopes alive and get their revenge against the Packers. Green Bay will not be the spoiler tonight at Soldier Field.
Chicago Bears -4
NBA
Denver Nuggets -3½
Toronto Raptors +2½
John Ryan
Oklahoma vs. Rice
Play: Rice +17
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Rice (CBB) - AiS shows an 73% probability that Rice will lose this game by 17 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 25-6 ATS for 81% since 2002. Play against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points after 8 or more consecutive wins and is a top-level team sporting a win percentage of >=80% playing a marginal losing team sporting a win percentage of 40% to 49%. Rice is obviously facing a strong offensive team noting they are 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams scoring 77+ points/game since 1997. Oklahoma, meanwhile is just 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road games versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season since 1997. Take Rice to cover the generous number.