Rob Homyak
N.C. State Wolfpack
JB Sports
ORLANDO
KING MAKER
Temple Owls
Nostradamus
Missouri -12
Denver +5
Chicago +5.5
Detroit +2.5
Tennessee Tech -2
James Madison +7.5
John Ryan
Chicago Bulls vs. New Jersey Nets
Play: Chicago Bulls +5.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Chicago Bulls as they play at New Jersey. AiS shows a 73% probability that Chicago will lose this game by 5 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 22-3 for a whopping 88% ATS since 2002. Play against home teams off an upset win as a dog facing an opponent off 3 or more consecutive road losses. Bulls will hit a MINIMUM of 39% from the floor tonight based on the AIS and note that NJ is just 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) when their opponents make 39% to 45% of their 3 pointers in a game over the last 2 seasons. Bulls are not a strong passing teams based on assists per game. NJ, however is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games versus poor passing teams that are averaging <=20 assists/game over the last 2 seasons. NJ is off a road win at Charlotte 114-103 and were installed as 2.5 point dogs. Note that NJ is just 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games off an upset win as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. Take the Bulls.
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Denver Nuggets +5
This is not the same Nuggets team that we are used to seeing fall flat on their faces on the road. Denver is a respectable 9-7 on the road this season and will give the Hawks all they want and more tonight. Denver is 20-8 ATS after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 3 seasons, exploding to win by an average score of 108.9 to 102.5 in these spots. Take the points.
Wunderdog
Fordham at Florida International
Pick: OVER 120 -110
Both of these teams are anemic offensively, leading to a low total. But, I like the OVER here thanks to the fact that Fordham can't stop anyone on the road. While scoring just 62.6 per game, they are allowing 72.4 per game. But that defensive average is a bit skewed. While holding opponents at home to 67.9 ppg, they are allowing 83 per game on the road. Florida International struggles mightily to score on the road (averaging fewer than 50 per game) while they score 62.4 per game at home. In their last five games, the Golden Panthers have allowed over 70 ppg. I think these teams find enough offense (thanks to average-to-poor defenses) for this one to go OVER.
Phoenix at Oklahoma City
Pick: Phoenix -9
It's not often that I back a big road favorite but I like Phoenix here. The Thunder has been a solid play this year as a big road dog, posting a 12-4 ATS mark on the road. But at home they are just 5-9 ATS. They give up 100 points per game here at home so how are they going to stay anywhere near a Suns team that is averaging 103 ppg on the season and 108 per game over their last five? Sure, the Suns defense is bad, allowing opponents to average about 3.5 ppg higher than their normal average. But the Oklahoma City offense is so pathetic that it won't matter. Maybe the Thunder score 95 in this one, but Phoenix should get 110 or more. I like the Suns in a blowout.
Ben Burns
NC State at Rutgers
Play: NC State
Rutgers is 1-6 ATS the last seven times it was listed as a favorite in the -3.5 to -10 range. NC State is 7-1 ATS its last eight against a team with a winning record. Consider taking the points.
LARRY NESS
Georgetown @ Connecticut
PICK: Connecticut
The Big East had eight teams in the NCAA tournament last season, which tied a record, and may get that many (or more!) again this year. U Conn and Georgetown meet tonight in the XL Center in Hartford and the teams are a combined 20-1 (Georgetown's loss to then-No. 12 Tennessee in the semifinals of the Old Spice Classic on Nov 28 being the lone blemish), justifying their high rankings (U Conn is ranked 2nd and Georgetown is 8th), plus giving the rest of the country a glimpse into the strength of this conference. Dyson (15.5-4.5-3.6) had some off-the-court issues LY but those problems are "long gone," as the junior guard leads the Huskies in scoring. He's joined on the perimeter by a pair of senior guards, Price (10.0-3.4-4.7) and Austrie (9.7) plus freshman Walker (9.9-3.3-3.0). Up front, there is the 7-3 Thabeet (14.8-11.1), the 6-7 Adrien (14.5-9.5) and the 6-9 Robinson (6.3-3.0), who is slowly but surely rounding into form (he averaged 10.4-6.5 LY) after sitting out the team's first eight games. Georgetown has a deep perimeter as well, with LY's two freshman guards, Freeman and Wright, making big strides as sophomores. Freeman is averaging 13.7-4.6 and Wright 13.2-3.6-4.3. They are joined by Sapp (8.8-4.8), who is now a senior and was an integral part of the last two years, when the Hoyas won 30 and 28 games. Clark (4.9-2.8), a freshman, adds depth in the backcourt. The 6-8 Summers (14.3-4.3) is having a strong junior season and the team's biggest (and best) addition this year is 6-11 freshman Monroe (12.4-5.6). Georgetown has been known for its defense and efficiency on offense the last two seasons but in U Conn, the Hoyas meet almost a mirror image of themselves, but one which does everything, just a little bit better. The Hoyas couldn't quite handle Tennessee on a neutral court and won't be able to stay with the Huskies for the entire game, tonight in Hartford. Lay the points.
Andre Gomes
ATL / DEN Under 200
I think the totals line of this game was set too high, but still the over in here is a temptation. The public jumped all over the over and still the line which opened at 200.5 went back to 200. Both teams are coming from high scoring games. The Nuggets went to New York to a party against the Knicks. They scored 117 points, shot 57% FG and scored 62 points in the paint. It was just too easy against a team that doesn't know what the word defense means. On the other side, Atlanta had also a points party at home against Chicago in their last game. The Bulls were short handed in the frontcourt without Gooden and Thomas and they had to speed up the tempo of the game, in order to be competitive. So, we had a game with no defense, in which backcourt players had great performances and both teams shot well above 50% FG.
However, this game will be different. Atlanta is a team who can play with any style, like their PG Bibby said:
"Everybody has fun when you play those types of games," Hawks point guard Mike Bibby said. "And it shows people that we can play both styles."
And this game will be far from being a run and gun game. I remember Atlanta at home against top teams has been playing extremely good defense. Look at their results: 85-78 vs Detroit; 85-88 vs Boston; 97-92 vs Cleveland. In fact, the Hawks are 6-0 Under in their last 6 games when they have allowed more than 100 points in their previous game. On the other side, Denver isn't that team with the pure run and gun style they were last season. With Billups, Denver is also capable playing at any style and certainly they won't be soft tonight. This will be a back to back game for them in a bad spot, as they are 4-1 Under in back to back games on the road. Carmelo Anthony had a monster game yesterday with 13-19 FG and 32 points, but today he will have a very tough night, as he will face the swingman Josh Smith, one of the best defenders in the league.
We are in front of a physical game, where the most probable scenario is of a physical game, much different from the previous games these two teams played, so the line was set too high. I've found a good trend which shows us exactly this: All teams are 41-13 Under in the last 5 seasons, in games where the total is 200 to 209.5 and after two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more against an opponent after a game where both teams scored 105 points or more. So, come to this, I'm taking the under in here.
Jorge Gonzalez
Colorado Pick 'em
The Colorado Buffaloes come into this game playing solid basketball. Over the last five games they have won their last four straight games by playing impressive defense. The Buffaloes are holding their opponents to 41% from the floor over the last five games. The Buffaloes are are also shooting the ball hitting 49% of their shots. The Buffaloes are coming off a 80-63 win over Coppin State while the Buffalo Bulls are coming off a 72-71 overtime win over Pepperdine. The Buffaloes have played well on neutral courts covering the spread in their last four. The Bulls are 1-4 ATS after a straight up win 1-5 ATS and are take Colorado to run their slow down offense here in this spot and take advantage of the tired Bulls. Good Luck!
Good afternoon from St. Louis everyone....so I guess the question I have for everyone is their opinion in the chances of Missouri covering the spread against Northwestern
Jack Jones
Orlando Magic -2.5
The Magic have won seven straight games after taking care of Minnesota on Saturday 118-94. Orlando has shown that they can win on the road all year long, going 11-3 away from home, including three straight. Detroit has looked a little better lately in winning three in a row and six of their last eight, but at 17-11 I think this team is a step below the streaking Magic. This series has gone the Pistons way lately, with Detroit winning six of eight and 10 of 13. The Magic have also go just 1-7 their last eight appearances in Auburn Hills. This is what kept me from playing this game, but I think the Magic will want to make a statement and come away with a win when they head to Detroit.
Tennessee Tech -2.5
These two teams have already played this year and the Golden Eagles from Tennessee Tech won that matchup by a score of 108-70. Even though Tennessee Tech has struggled recently, I’m pretty convinced that a team that won by nearly 40 a month ago can handle 2.5 points the second time around. The Warhawks are 3-8 this year for a reason, they just aren’t that good.
Niagara -5
Murray State has lost four of their last five comes coming into this game and the Races are coming off a 57-41 loss to Wright State. The Purple Eagles on the other hand have looked good all season long in winning nine of their first 11 games, including four in a row. Niagara is coming off a 83-65 win against St. Bonny and their explosive offense should be too much for a Racers team that has had problems scoring this year.
UConn -7
The Huskies haven’t lost yet this season and have won eight of their 11 contests by double digits. I know that Georgetown has already knocked off Memphis and Maryland this year, but those two teams aren’t nearly as good as this Huskies squad. The fact that UConn gets this game at home, in front of what should be a fired up crowd getting to see their Huskies first real test, should be a big boost. UConn is just too dominant down low and while Greg Monroe has been solid this year for the Hoyas, he is a little inexperienced. UConn wins by 10 here.
Rocketman
Portland State @ Baylor
Play On:1* Baylor -13
Baylor is a perfect 7-0 SU at home this year scoring 86 points per game while allowing only 59.1 points per game. Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Monday games. Bears are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU win. Bears are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. We'll recommend a small play on Baylor tonight!
Matt Fargo
Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Toronto Raptors
This is the final road game in this trip for the Raptors and it has been up and down thus far. While the Raptors are anxious to get home, they are more concerned about getting a win here and evening up their record at 3-3 on this roadtrip before heading home to play three straight games against top caliber competition. Toronto is a very respectable 7-10 on the road for the season and after Golden St. swept this season series last year, it will be looking to return the favor since it has already won the first meeting this season at home by four points. Golden St. had one of the biggest upsets this season when it defeated the Celtics by 10 points as 11-point underdogs two games back. The Warriors tried to make it two straight on Sunday as it went to Los Angeles but could not keep up as the Lakers easily won by 17 points. That loss is going to linger and even though it returns home, playing at Oracle Arena has been far from home sweet home as the Warriors are only 5-7 there on the season. Golden St. started the season a pretty solid 5-6 but has gone 4-17 since then with no reason to believe the skid won?t continue. Toronto is 8-4 against teams outside the top 16 while Golden St. is 5-9 and all Toronto likely needs to do is win to get us the short number cover. The Warriors are just 4-13 ATS this season coming off an offensive output of 105 or more points and they are 3-11 ATS this year against teams that average at least six made three-point shots. Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as a favorite of fewer than five points. 3* Toronto Raptors