SPORTS ADVISORS
(13) Notre Dame (12-3, 4-5 ATS) at (23) Louisville (11-3, 7-7 ATS)
The Fighting Irish shoot for their third straight win tonight when they visit Freedom Hall to take on Louisville in the latest Big East showdown between Top 25 squads.
Notre Dame has recovered well since dropping its opening Big East game at St. John’s on Jan. 3, scoring a pair of home wins over Georgetown (73-67 a week ago tonight as a three-point favorite) and Seton Hall (88-79 on Saturday, coming up short as a 15-point chalk). The Irish have won six of their last seven overall (2-2 ATS), but they are just 2-4 ATS away from South Bend.
Louisville has rattled off three straight wins (2-1 ATS), including two Big East road wins in the last five days, first going to South Florida and getting a 71-57 victory as an 11-point favorite and then upsetting Villanova on Saturday 61-60 as a two-point ‘dog in Philadelphia. The Cardinals are 8-1 SU (5-4 ATS) at Freedom Hall, with the only setback being a 56-55 loss to UNLV on Dec. 31 as a 13½-point favorite.
The host has won all three matchups between these two the last three years, but Notre Dame has cashed in each outing. Last year at Freedom Hall, the Cardinals scored a 90-85 victory, but came up short as 7½-point favorites.
Notre Dame has covered the number in each of its last five after an non-cover, but the Irish are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six Monday games and 1-4 ATS in their last five after a straight-up win. Louisville is 26-7-2 in its last 35 Big East games and 4-1-1 in its last six Monday outings, but the Cardinals are just 1-5 ATS in their last six at Freedom Hall and 6-20-2 their last 28 at home against teams with a winning road record.
For the Irish, the over is on runs of 20-7 in Big East action, 15-6 after a straight-up win, 11-3 on the road against teams with a winning home record and 7-3 on Mondays. Conversely, Louisville is on “under” streaks of 17-6-1 at home, 35-17-1 after a straight-up win, 5-1 after a spread-cover and 6-0 on Mondays. Finally, the over has easily hit in the last two series meetings in Louisville, with both games finishing with a combined 175 points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NOTRE DAME
(7) Texas (12-3, 6-6 ATS) at (6) Oklahoma (15-1, 6-5 ATS)
The Longhorns are looking for their seventh straight win over rival Oklahoma when they visit the Lloyd Noble Center in Norman in a key Big 12 clash.
Texas is 6-0 SU and ATS against the Sooners since last losing in January 2006. The ‘Horns beat Oklahoma three times last season, including a 64-54 win and cover in Norman, and a 77-49 blowout victory as a 5½-point favorite in the Big 12 tournament semifinals in March. Texas is 5-1 ATS in its last four trips to Oklahoma and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five.
The Longhorns come in off Saturday’s 75-67 home win over Iowa State in their Big 12 debut, but they failed to cash as 16½-point favorites. Texas is 1-1 SU and ATS in its two true roadies, dropping the last one 67-61 at Arkansas on Tuesday as a 4½-point chalk. The Longhorns have scored at least 68 points in all but two games (both losses).
Since suffering its first defeat of the season – also at Arkansas – Oklahoma has won three straight overall (1-0 ATS), including Saturday’s 61-53 Big 12-opening win at Kansas State, cashing as a one-point favorite. The Sooners were held to a season-low point total in the win, as they had scored at least 69 points in their first 15 games. Oklahoma is unbeaten through nine games at home, averaging 83.7 points a game and shooting 48.1 percent from the floor while limiting visitors to just 62.6 points per contest and 36 percent shooting.
Texas is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 Monday contests, but the ‘Horns are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven after a straight-up win and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven Big 12 contests. Oklahoma is 5-1 ATS in its last six at home against teams with a winning road mark, but the Sooners are in ATS ruts of 8-18 in conference play, 2-7-1 on Monday and 1-5 ATS after a spread-cover.
For the Longhorns, the under is on stretches 21-8-1 on Mondays, 15-6 after a non-cover and 4-0 after a straight-up win. Oklahoma has stayed under the total in 17 of its last 25 Monday games, eight straight Big 12 games and four of five against winning teams. Also, in this rivalry, the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and UNDER
NBA
Portland (22-14, 17-19 ATS) at Chicago (16-21 SU and ATS)
The struggling Bulls, losers of seven of their last 10 games overall, try to snap out of their funk as they welcome the Trail Blazers to the United Center in Chicago.
Portland has won its last two, downing the Pistons 84-83 on Wednesday but coming up short as 2½-point home favorites, and beating the Warriors 113-100 on Saturday, narrowly cashing as a 12-point home chalk. The Blazers, who are kicking off a four-game road trip tonight, are just 8-10 SU (6-12 ATS) away from home this season.
Chicago is coming off Saturday’s embarrassing 109-98 home loss to Oklahoma City as an 8 ½-point home chalk, falling to 1-5 ATS in their last six overall. The Bulls, who have surrendered 102 points or more in five of their last eight outings, have dropped three of their last five at home (1-4 ATS).
The SU winner is 14-2 ATS in Chicago’s last 16 games and 13-1 in Portland’s last 14.
Portland has won the last three head-to-head meetings with Chicago, including a 116-74 blowout victory in Oregon on Nov. 19, easily cashing as a 6½-point favorite. Last season, the Blazers went to the Windy City and got a 100-97 win but couldn’t cover as 5½-point road favorites. These teams have alternated spread-covers over the last four years, with the home team carrying a 5-2 ATS mark in the last seven meetings.
The Blazers haven’t done much at the betting window lately, currently on negative ATS trends of 5-12 overall, 0-7 on the road, 2-6 against the Eastern Conference, 6-21 on Mondays and 1-7 when getting a day off. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four Monday affairs, but otherwise they’re also on a host of ATS slides, including 1-5 overall, 1-4 at home, 2-5 against the Western Conference, 1-4 as a ‘dog, 1-6 when getting a day off and 2-6 at home against teams with a losing road mark.
For Portland, the under is on runs of 4-1 overall, 27-11 on the road, 21-8 after a straight-up win, 5-1 on Monday, 4-0 against the Central Division and 6-1 after a spread-cover. Also, Chicago is on “under” streaks of 11-4 as a home ‘dog and 4-1 after an ATS loss, but the over is 6-2 in the Bulls’ last eight as an underdog in any venue and 4-1 when they get a day off. Finally, the over is 5-2-1 in the last eight matchups between these teams in Chicago.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
DUNKEL
Oklahoma City at New Jersey
The Nets are just 4-7 ATS as a favorite this season, while the Thunder are 5-1 ATS on the road when the total is between 195 and 199 1/2. Oklahoma City is the underdog pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Nets favored by only 5. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+7 1/2).
Game 701-702: Milwaukee at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 117.910; Washington 117.981
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 3; 191
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Over
Game 703-704: Toronto at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 119.043; Boston 124.567
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 5 1/2; 198 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 705-706: Oklahoma City at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 113.294; New Jersey 118.417
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 5; 186
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey by 7 1/2; 199 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+7 1/2); Under
Game 707-708: New York at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: New York 111.912; New Orleans 128.175
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 16; 187 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 12; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-12); Under
Game 709-710: Portland at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 118.878; Chicago 115.212
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 3 1/2; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 2; 195
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-2); Under
Game 711-712: Indiana at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 114.124; Utah 124.739
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 10 1/2; 232
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NCAAB
Davidson at Appalachian State
The Wildcats are a perfect 6-0 ATS at Appalachian State since 1997. Davidson is the pick (-10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 14 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Davidson (-10 1/2).
Game 713-714: Notre Dame at Louisville
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 70.114; Louisville 75.245
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 5
Vegas Line: Louisville by 7
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (+7)
Game 715-716: Texas at Oklahoma
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 71.719; Oklahoma 73.310
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 4
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+4)
Game 717-718: Samford at College of Charleston
Dunkel Ratings: Samford 45.533; College of Charleston 58.927
Dunkel Line: College of Charleston by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: College of Charleston by 15
Dunkel Pick: Samford (+15)
Game 719-720: TN-Chattanooga at The Citadel
Dunkel Ratings: TN-Chattanooga 50.193; The Citadel 50.226
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: TN-Chattanooga by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: The Citadel (+3 1/2)
Game 721-722: Davidson at Appalachian State
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 67.913; Appalachian State 53.284
Dunkel Line: Davidson by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Davidson by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Davidson (-10 1/2)
Game 723-724: Tennessee Martin at SE Missouri State
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee Martin 49.789; SE Missouri State 43.096
Dunkel Line: Tennessee Martin by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Tennessee Martin by 10
Dunkel Pick: SE Missouri State (+10)
NHL
Tampa Bay at Los Angeles
The Kings are coming off a loss to New Jersey (5-1) and are just 1-6 after playing an Eastern Conference team. Tampa Bay is the underdog pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Lightning favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+125).
Game 1-2: Detroit at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.288; Dallas 11.984
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-185); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-185); Over
Game 3-4: Tampa Bay at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.520; Los Angeles 10.434
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+125); Under
Jimmy Boyd
Notre Dame vs. Louisville
Play: Notre Dame +6.5
Louisville played a very emotionally and physically taxing game at Villanova Saturday and that will leave the Cards a little flat in this one. Notre Dame is far too good to be catching these kind of points. Last season Notre Dame played Louisville to a 5-point game on the road to cover the 7.5-point spread and the Irish's chances of winning outright are even better this season because of this letdown spot that the Cards are in. Louisville is 8-20 ATS after a close win by 3 points or less since 1997, 6-19 ATS in home games after a win by 6 points or less since 1997, and 1-8 ATS in home games when playing their 3rd game in a week over the last 3 seasons. Take the points.
James Patrick Sports
Bucks vs. Wizards
In Monday NBA action the Milwaukee Bucks travel to our nation's capitol to take on the Washington Wizards. This series has gone Over the Total in 7 of 8 match-ups and the Wizaeds are Over the Total in 6 of 8 on their home court of late. Our Monday selection in NBA action is Milwaukee - Washington Over the Total.
Jimmy The Moose
Tampa Bay Lightning at Los Angeles Kings
Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning
Two cellar dwellers meet-up in Los Angeles tonight. After a horrible start the Lightning have been playing a lot better and come into this one 5-5 over their last 10 games. The Kings on the other hand of won only 4 of their last 10 games. The Kings have lost 5 of their last 7 home games. The Kings have struggled in the past vs. the Lightning and will do so again tonight. Tampa is 4-0-2 in their last 6 trips to Los Angeles. The Kings are 1-6-1 in the last 8 meetings between the clubs. Play on the Tampa Bay Lightning +.
Brian Hansen
Detroit Red Wings at Dallas Stars
Prediction: Dallas Stars
Stictly a value play here; the Stars are coming off a 1-0 shootout loss to Phoenix on the road but I look for them to play strong in front of the hometown crowd tonight. The Redwings have been playing awesome again this year, however they have struggled in this position going a subpar 2-3 their last 5 after playing 3 consecutive home games; play on DALLAS!
Big Al McMordie
Toronto at Boston
Pick: Boston
At 7:30 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Toronto. This is a rematch of Sunday's game (played in Canada) in which Boston breezed out to a 20-point lead, and then held on to win 94-88 (as a 5.5-point favorite). Toronto's Jermaine O'Neal missed his seventh straight game yesterday, but Raptor point guard Jose Calderon did play (after missing three games). Calderon scored six points in 22 minutes, but decided to remain in Toronto for treatment on his right hamstring, so both he and O'Neal will be out tonight. And facing the Celtics in Boston, while being shorthanded, is generally not a recipe for success, notwithstanding the fact the Paul Pierce and/or Kendrick Perkins may miss tonight's game as well. Boston has won seven of eight vs. Toronto, including all three meetings this season. Lay the points.
Cajun Sports
Notre Dame vs. Louisville
Play: Louisville -6.5
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish leave the friendly confines of the Joyce Center where they have the nation’s longest current winning streak of 45 straight games and travel to face Big East rival Louisville Cardinals on their home court on Monday night.
The Irish have averaged 86.6 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field and they are shooting better than 44% from behind the arc at home this season. That’s where the good news ends for Irish backers as they average only 77.1 points per game on 45% shooting from the field and only 37.6% from three-point land on the highway this season. Notre Dame has only managed one win away from home in their last four road games and that was against a DePaul team that is 0-4 in league play this season.
Louisville enters tonight’s contest off a one point victory 61 to 60 over then 18th ranked Villanova on Saturday. That was their second league game this season and both have been played on the road with the Cardinals winning and covering both contests. Their first league game was at South Florida last Wednesday with the Cardinals winning 71 to 57 as an 11 point road favorite.
Louisville is averaging 79.7 points per game at home this season versus teams that would normally surrender only 67.5 points per game. The Cardinals are only allowing their opponents to average 57.1 points per game and this to teams that average 71.7 points per game. They are holding opponents to 38% shooting from the field and 30% shooting from behind the arc.
Notre Dame will be unable to dictate the pace of this contest like they do so well at home. Louisville’s guards will control the tempo while Clark and Williams bang the boards to keep the Irish from being able to run their style of offense. Clark and Williams each had 14 points in last season’s game against this Irish team. In Saturday’s win over Villanova Williams had 12 points and 14 rebounds while Clark added 16 points and 11 boards. We expect both of them to have big games tonight against the Irish.
The Cardinals are 25-8 ATS after 2 consecutive conference games over the last 3 seasons. Louisville is 11-2 ATS off a road win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons and 15-5 ATS off 2 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons.
Data base research has uncovered a CBB system that tells us to Play ON CBB home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a team that averages 74-78 points per game against a team that allows 67-74 points per game after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games, 31-11 ATS the last five seasons.
With significant fundamental, technical and situational support we will recommend laying the chalk with the host here as the Louisville Cardinals make it 3-0 both SU and ATS in league play this season.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) Louisville Cardinals 77 Notre Dame 64
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Bucks/Wizards UNDER 190
Washington is an Unders machine, going under the total in 9 of its last 12 games. Washington is 20-6 Under off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival since 1996. History shows that these division games have taken a lot out of the Wizards and that they have been sluggish in their next contest, combining with their opponent to score 185.2 points in these spots. The Under is 8-1 in the Wizards last 9 games as an underdog and 5-0 in the Wizards last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The Under is 4-0 in the Bucks last 4 games as a road favorite and 9-3 in the Bucks last 12 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less. Bet the Under.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Knicks/Hornets UNDER 201.5
The Knicks have gone under the number in 6 straight games. The Hornets have gone under in 10 of their last 15. If this game was at NY with this line, it would be an automatic overs play, but since it is at New Orleans, where the Hornets are only allowing 89.3 ppg we'll take the under. NY is really struggling and hasn't scored over the century mark in 3 straight games. The Under is 6-0 in the Knicks last 6 Monday games, 4-0 in the Knicks last 4 road games, 4-0 in the Knicks last 4 games as an underdog, and 5-0 in the Knicks last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. The Under is also 8-2 in the Hornets last 10 games as a favorite. Bet the Under.
Matt Rivers
For Monday take the points with Notre Dame.
I do fully admit that Luke Harangody and the Fighting Irish are not nearly the same team away from South Bend and Louisville is an ultra talented team, but to get a number like this back with a star in Harangody and other quality quality players is fine with me.
Rick Pitino's squad is coming off of that solid one point win in Villanova. The Cardinals had to hold on late after basically blowing a few big leads throughout. Samardo Samuels is a young kid with a world of talent and others like Terrence Williams, Earl Clark, Jerry Smith, Edgar Sosa and so on will bring it but the 'Ville have also not been great even with that 11-3 overall record.
I have watched Louisville get shocked at home by both Western Kentucky and UNLV and in ridiculous pedestrian fashion beat Austin Peay, Kentucky and Ole Miss a lot closer than it should have been. When tournament time rolls around this team is going to be extremely formidable but things have not been all there yet and to get Mike Brey's Irish at this price is a semi no-brainer.
Harangody, Zach Hillesland, Tory Jackson, Kyle McAlarney and the Irish can bomb away from three and can kill you from the inside as well. In what should be a very good game the points with these visitors will be the right side for sure. The home court is always huge in college sports but the number is going to prove to be too pricey.
Sports Gambling Hotline
Okalhoma City +7' at NEW JERSEY
We are interested in any points they are giving to the Thunder tonight as Oklahoma City has been a pointspread dynamo on the highway this season.
Yes, Oklahoma City is just 2-16 straight up on the road this season, but with the points, the Thunder is a righteous 13-5 against the spread on the highway this year!
New Jersey has been inconsistent at best this season, and they come into this one off a loss at Milwaukee. While the Nets have been on an uptick at home, winning and covering their last 3, the Nets are still a money-burning 8-12 both straight up, and against the spread at home thus far this season.
New Jersey swept both meetings last season, and while they may win this one at home, we don't see them covering the number in this one.
Play on the Thunder.
1♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Karl Garrett
New York +12 at NEW ORLEANS
G-Man going to take a shot with the underdog Knicks tonight as they pay a visit to the Big Easy for a date with the Hornets.
New York is playing their 4th straight on the road, and of late, the Knickerbockers have been playing some competitive hoops away from home, covering 8 of their last 11 road dates.
The Knicks also covered in their last trip to New Orleans as the underdog.
Combine that with the fact the Hornets are just 7-8-1 against the spread at home this season, and you have the makings of another road dog cover for New York tonight.
Take the points boys!
2♦ NEW YORK
Bobby Maxwell
Notre Dame +7 at LOUISVILLE
The Cardinals just don't cover at home anymore. So tonight we'll happily grab the points and play Notre Dame as the Irish visit Louisville.
Louisville is just 1-5 ATS in its last six home games and just 6-20-2 ATS in its last 28 at home against teams with a winning record. And if you look into more numbers, you'll see the Irish have gotten the cash in all three matchups they've had with Louisville in the last three years.
Notre Dame has had a couple of nice wins the last two times out, beating Georgetown 73-67 as a three-point favorite a week ago and then beating Seton Hall 88-79 on Saturday. The Irish have won six of their last seven overall.
The Irish have the patience and the big men to stay in this game down to the wire. With the way Louisville has played at home lately, we'll grab the points and take our chances with Notre Dame.
3♦ NOTRE DAME
DAVE COKIN
TEXAS / OKLAHOMA
Take OKLAHOMA
Tonight's Texas-Oklahoma game is as big as it can possibly get for the Sooners. The Longhorns have really had their number lately, winning each of the last six meetings. This game is very close on paper, as I have Oklahoma -2.5 using my numbers. But with this likely being the biggest game Oklahoma has played since Capel arrived, I'm siding with the Sooners for my Monday free opinion.