Chris Jordan
NFL Winner ...
500* CHARGERS
I don't know what more to tell you except how awful the Broncos' defense is this year, and coming into a rivals' stadium, on a 2-9 ATS skid against winning teams – it's an unfortunate circumstance for them tonight.
San Diego is going run roughshod through this team – literally and figuratively speaking – as the Chargers face one of the worst defensive units in the league. We've seen Denver falter in Chicago, Oakland and Houston most recently, and San Diego's offense runs circles around that trio. And the Bolts are 3-0 SU and ATS the last three meetings with Denver, which has given up 35 points or more to San Diego in each of those meetings.
The straight-up winner is on a solid 9-0-1 ATS run the last 10 meetings between the two, and there is no doubt I believe San Diego wins this game on the field. On top of that, the winner has also covered the spread in every game the Chargers have played this season.
Denver is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six on the highway, while the Bolts come in on a 7-1 ATS run in intra-conference action, and 18-5-1 in their last 24 against division rivals.
Lay the home chalk in this one, as San Diego has a big night offensively.
Pro Info Sports
Line: San Diego Chargers -9 Total: 47
Rating: 3* (3% of bankroll)
Selection: Denver Broncos
Analysis:
Denver travels to San Diego for the final Monday Night Football Game of the Season. We have another one of these late season situations where one team is going to the Post Season and the other apparently has nothing to play for but pride or in this case revenge for a 41 to 3 loss earlier in the year.
The world appears to be backing the Chargers and they are the better team but this is the NFL and we have a POWER SYSTEM that has already cashed twice this weekend when it appeared our qualifying teams had no chance. The POWER SYSTEM says to; From Game 9 on, play ON a non-Saturday team seeking revenge for a SU loss, allowing 41+ points in the first matchup 3+ games ago, 13-1 ATS since 2000. This system has already produced two winners this weekend with Cincinnati defeating Cleveland and Miami covering against New England we look for winner number 14 for the system tonight.
We have another revenge situation that backs our position on the Broncos and it says to; "Play On" road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points revenging a loss with a winning percentage of 40 to 49% on the season, 34-9 ATS.
The Chargers are coming off a game where they rushed for over 200 yards and won SU which qualifies them in a play against POWER SYSTEM that says to; In Games 15-16, play AGAINST a team (not a favorite of 10+ points or underdog of more than 3 points) off a SU win rushing for 200+ yards in its last game vs. a +.200% opponent not off a road favorite SU win in its last game, 27-0 ATS since 1997.
Our final POWER SYSTEM says to; Play AGAINST a non-Thursday home favorite of 7+ points off a 2+ turnover margin as a home favorite of 5+ points last week, 17-1 ATS since 2001.
For the final MNF Game of the season we are going to back the team that is not going to the Playoffs but has solid revenge and several situational indicators and systems in their favor.
SELECTION: 3* DENVER BRONCOS 27 SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 30
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T. Striker's 41-11 ATS Monday Night Game of the Year
#344 SAN DIEGO (-8') over Denver at 8:30 PM EST
With victories in their final two regular season games, San Diego will lock up the No. 3 seed in the AFC Playoffs. That's huge. If the Chargers win out, they'll avoid facing New England in the playoffs until the AFC Championship Game!
Technically speaking, this is a phenomenal spot to fade Denver. Since 1980, Monday Night road teams that lost straight up as a favorite in their last game are a dismal 36-60-1 ATS. If our guest enters off a blemish of four points or more last, is priced as a favorite or an underdog of +9' or less and matched up against an opponent that carries a won/loss percentage of .400 or better, this situation drops to a wallet-breaking 11-41 ATS! The Broncos fit the general situation and all three tighteners!
With a 5-15 SU and 7-13 ATS record, the Monday night road hasn't been kind to the Orange Crush at all. In this role coming off a straight up loss, Denver crashes to a dismal 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS!
The Chargers stand 41-21-3 ATS in their last 65 battles including 23-8-3 ATS in this set matched up against a foe that arrives off a straight up loss. The Bolts are peaking at the right time. Take San Diego.
BEN BURNS
B.BURNS' Monday Night MAIN EVENT (10-1 L11 NFL Sides!)
I'm taking the points with DENVER.
Although they've been eliminated from the playoff race, I believe that the Broncos are better than their record indicates. Having been embarrassed 41-3 by the Chargers at Denver in October, I also feel that the Broncos will have plenty of motivation for tonight's contest. Note that Denver has gone 39-23 SU (34-23-6 ATS) the last 62 times it was facing a team which defeated them in their previous meeting. That includes a 7-3 SU mark the last 10 in that role. Naturally, the Chargers would like to win and keep their momentum going. They also can still finish as the third seed, rather than the fourth. That amounts to the difference between playing at Indianapolis or New England in the divisional round. Either way, to get to the Super Bowl, the Chargers would likely have to beat both those teams. That being said, considering that they've already clinched the division title, I feel that it may be difficult to get as emotionally fired up, as it would be if this game had more meaning. Additionally, if Norv Turner has been paying any attention, he will have noticed that playoff teams like Dallas, Pittsburgh and Tampa all suffered key injuries over the weekend. You may have noticed that the Bucs, who also were playing for the third or fourth spot and who had also just clinched their division, seemed to show little interest in winning their game, losing outright vs. SF. Although the Chargers have won the last few meetings, the Broncos remain a healthy 13-7 the last 20 meetings in the series. Note that only three of those San Diego victories came by greater than eight points. Look for an inspired effort from Shanahan's revenge-minded Broncos as they improve to 4-1 ATS their last five games on a Monday Night. *Monday Night Main Event
B. BURNS Monday Night NFL Total of the Year (29-13 L42!)
I feel this total is much too high and I'm playing on the Chargers and Broncos to finish UNDER the total.
The earlier meeting at Denver just barely crept above the number. However, that was only due to the Chargers breaking a late long touchdown. Additionally, the final combined score of that game was 44 points, so it would have fallen beneath this evening's larger number. In fact, looking at the last 20 games in this series and we find that NONE of them have had an over/under line this high and that 14 of those games finished with 47 points or less. That includes a 4-2-1 "under" mark over the past seven games. Despite the earlier result, dating back to the start of the 2005 season, the Chargers have seen the UNDER go a healthy 11-5 against divisional opponents. During the same stretch, they've seen both their Monday Night appearances fall below the number and they've also seen the UNDER go 5-2 when playing a home game with an over/under line ranging from 45.5 to 49 . As always, the Chargers, who allow a mere 15.1 points per game at home, will be featuring a heavy dose of Tomlinson. That's particularly true as he's trying to ensure that he finishes with another rushing title. Naturally, when teams run the ball, it helps to chew up the clock. Tomlinson and the Chargers will face a Denver defense which will be anxious for a better performance after getting lit up for 41 points in the previous meeting. We saw several examples of relatively low-scoring games (Carolina/Dallas, Cincy/Clev, GB/Chi, Tenn/NJY, Balt/Seattle) this weekend in matchups which featured one team battling for playoff positioning vs. another team "playing for pride." Look for more of the same tonight as the final combined score falls beneath the generous number and the UNDER moves to 12-6-1 the last 17 times that the Chargers played in the month of December. Monday Night Total of the Year
Wild Bill
Denver +8 (5 units)
Tom Freese
Denver +9
Drew Gordon
Monday Play:
1. 200,000* Chargers
1. Chargers- While its true the Broncos should be highly motivated after getting their asses handed to them by the Chargers 41-3 in their worst home loss since 1966. The fact of the matter is the Chargers are that much better, and a little extra motivation isn't enough to overcome a superior San Diego squad with a mountain of trends in their favor.
First of all, Denver has been terrible on the road this season, going 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS. The Chargers on the other hand, have been a cash-machine in San Diego, going 6-1 SUATS! The scariest part about Denver is their pathetic defense on the road, allowing almost 30 ppg, surrendering 141 rushing yards per contest! Guys, we're talking about LaDainian Tomlinson, arguablly the best RB in the NFL, who's also been on an absolute tear over his last 3 games, rushing for 439 yards and 5 TDs. And don't worry too much if he gets some rest late, because speedy RB Sproles proved to be a viable option last week (122 rushing yards).
Second, let's talk motivation, as the Chargers have just as much reason to get the win here as the Broncos. True, the Broncos want some redemption, but is that really more motivation than playoff seeding? If you were a San Diego Charger, would you rather play the Colts or the undefeated Patriots in the divisional round? That was a rhetorical question, because obviously having the 3rd seed and playing the Colts would be a better than playing the best team we've seen in the modern era.
Finally, do you really believe Jay Cutler, Mr. 5-14 ATS as the Broncos starting QB, is going to come into San Diego and beat a now healthy Chargers defense? This is EXACTLY the kind of game Cutler struggles in, on the road, facing an aggressive stop-unit with a healthy Merriman (a true game-changer at the LB position), and solid secondary led by Cromartie and his 10 picks. This game has blowout written all over it, and I say that's exactly what we get tonight in San Diego.
Bottom line, expect LT to hand-deliver the cash in his home finale, against a road-weary Broncos defense that hasn't been able to stop anyone on the road (not named Kansas City) this season. While on the other side of the ball, Merriman and company give Cutler nightmares for the next 2 weeks! End result: Chargers get the lopsided home win and cover Monday night.
Take the Chargers BIG over the Broncos as your top-rated play of the day.
Dr Bob..
SAN DIEGO (-8.5) 26 Denver 19
San Diego would like to hold onto the #3 seed to avoid facing the Patriots until the Conference Championship game, but that doesn’t mean that they’ll have their way with a Broncos team that is pretty good and is still likely to play hard. Denver’s defense improved in over the last 6 games after changing their lineup and San Diego’s defense is not a full strength with star LB Shawne Merriman 50/50 to miss his second straight game, as I’m sure that Norv Turner would rather have Merriman healthy for the playoffs. I’ll assume Merriman plays and my math model still favors the Chargers by just 6½ points. I’ll lean with Denver plus the generous points.
Michael Cannon
30 Dime –
CHARGERS
Lay the points with the Chargers tonight at home over the Broncos.
San Diego already waxed Denver in the first meeting this year, but I don’t think the Broncos have what it takes to exact any revenge here.
The Chargers are a team that is getting better as the season goes on, while the Broncos have been eliminated from the playoffs.
Denver’s run defense has been non-existent this year and I can’t see how they are going to slow LaDanian Tomlinson. The Chargers have been getting big early leads at home lately and making them stand up, so expect a full-out arsenal tonight as they try to break the Broncos’ spirit early.
San Diego still has something to play for, as they are in a battle with the Steelers for the No. 3 seed in the AFC. If the Chargers and Steelers both win out, San Diego will get the higher seed in the tiebreaker.
Don’t think for a minute that that doesn’t mean anything, because the No. 4 seed is going to have to play Jacksonville in the first round, a team that nobody wants to face right now.
The Chargers are 8-1 ATS as a December chalk against a losing team off a double-digit loss.
Lay the points with the Chargers as they roll to the home win and cover
Black Magic Sports
5 Unit Black Magic AFC West Surefire on Denver Broncos +9
There is nothing like sweet revenge when these 300-pound animals go at one another. It is very difficult to beat the same team twice within as season and this is the case Monday. Denver obviously got killed by the Chargers at Mile High Stadium on October 7th. They won't just fold to San Diego like the Lions did last week. Denver will come out aggressive with nothing to lose. A 28-7 System with an 80% winning ratio fits into this game perfectly. It guides you to bet against the home favorites after a game where they forced 5 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. Denver is known for their ball control offense where they don't turn the ball over. San Diego feeds off turnovers and Mike Shanahan will make sure his team does everything under their power to hold onto the ball. With the Chargers already crowned AFC West Champions, this game is basically meaningless to San Diego . Cash in with the Broncos as the underdog
LT'S LOCK
The LOCK: Over 47 in Denver/San Diego
Handicapper: Daniel Perkins
Pick: 3 units (Free Play) ATS: San Diego Chargers -8.5 (-109)
Since the embarrassing start the Chargers have buckled down and found themselves headed to the post season clinching the AFC West Division last week. The Chargers have covered and won their past 4 straight games including that straight up win over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 12. Philip Rivers have thrown for 613 yards in the last three games thanks to an offensive line that is playing fantastic football with their leader Nick Hardwick at centre back from injury. LaDainian Tomlinson will have a field day playing the 29th ranked run defense the Broncos bring to tonights game. The Chargers defense has picked it up as of late forcing at least 2 turnovers in 9 of the previous 10 games along side with a +19 turnover margin. Every time the Broncos have played a defense that can throw the offensive line off its rhythm they have struggled because all the pressure was put on Jay Cutler. The 21 points per game is an inflated stat and the inconsistency that Cutler possesses will shine through bright and clear tonight. The Broncos got blown out in week 5 41-3 at mile high by the Chargers. That was the turning point of the season for San Diego as the running game finally got back on track. The Broncos are 2-9ATS vs. AFC West opponents and are a disappointing 21-31 on Monday Nights. The Chargers have reported that starters will get plenty of playing time in order to keep the momentum building going into the playoffs. With a healthy offensive line playing outstanding football Tomlinson will run all over the Denver secondary. When he runs for more then 125 yards the Chargers are 22-9 ATS. With a win today the Chargers will get the easier wild card game, with a loss they will likely face Jacksonville in San Diego. There will be plenty of motivation to stomp the Broncos for fans on Christmas Eve and keep rolling into the post season. Take the Chargers in a double digit win Monday Night against the Broncos.
KELSO STURGEON
CHAIRMANS CLUB
5* San Diego and under
5* parlay San Diego and under
SPORTS UNLIMITED
3* under
PRIVATE PLAYERS (gavazzi)
1* opinion san diego and under
Sebastian
30* San Diego
Bob Akmens
10* Sd
10* Over
Steven Budin-CEO
100 DIME MAX WAGER
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Lenny Del Genio's MNF Game of the Year (6-1 FB Sunday)
Play on San Diego
Frank Rosenthal
344 CHARGERS-7.5 SB+
UNDER 47.5 SB
ACES RATING KEY FOR MEMBERS
SB = Single Bet. | SB+ = Bet & a 1/2 | SB++ = Bet 3/4 |
DB = Double Bet | DB+ = Double Bet & Dash of Juice |
TB = Triple Bet. Rare! | SW = An Ace Switch ?= Might Add More