WILD BILL
Clemson -2 (1 unit) Tigers QB and overall defense should be the difference
Fresno State + 4 (1 unit) Bulldogs seem to play a great underdog role.
California -3 (1 unit) Receivers for Bears should get open vs Flyboys
Indiana + 3 1/2 (2 units) Okie State won't be able to keep up with receiver corps for Hoosiers
Over 54 1/2 GT- Fresno State (1 unit) Fresno offensively can put holes in GT with acting HC at helm
Over 69 Okla St- Indiana (2 units) There is no defense for either club.
AAA
NCAAF: Auburn Tigers at Clemson Tigers - Auburn +2.5 -110 | Unit Value: 2
Note: I do want to make it very clear that I absolutely hate Tommy Tuberville. But, when it comes to laying down money, it is clear that his coached team have been a very good proposition. That is especially true in the big games and he has had a few of those this year beating arch rival Alabama for the 6th straight time to close out the 2007 campaign, winning at Arkansas, beating Florida in the swamp, and giving LSU the scare of their life down there in Tiger Land. This team knows how to win, and more importantly, this team knows how to prepare to win. With preparation time as it is for this game, I suspect that the Tigers from the state of Alabama, ranked 6th in the land in total D, 8th in scoring D, 19th vs the run, & 13th vs the pass, will be up to the task verses the Clemson potent offense. Much has been said about the Clemson QB. Harper, who ranks 17th in the nation, as well as 1st in the ACC in QB ratings, with a 67% pct, & 2,887 yds, along with 27 TD passes, & just 6 Int's, is a good one. However, Clemson is prone to the turnover, and Auburn is one of the hardest hitting teams in Division 1A. They can make you get out of your rythem with extreme pressure on the passer, and a secondary that is probably the 2nd Best the SEC has to offer. That is key in this contest and we have already seen Auburn stop a talented Florida Gator passing attack, as well as holding Vandy to just 7 points. I can promise you that this is not going to be the popular choice in this game. Bettors love to play the best offensive teams and Auburn is not recognized as such. They are averaging 10 points less per contest than Clemson this year, and at time, they have had trouble moving the ball. But there is no doubt that their schedule has been much tougher than Clemson, playing some of the better D's in the country. The Clemson Tigers have 3 losses this year. Boston College, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech. Those 3 teams just happen to all have Great D Squads. They all have D teams similar to that of Auburn. None of them are better than this Auburn Crew. Coincidence? I don't think so.
NCAAF: Indiana Hoosiers at Oklahoma State Cowboys - Oklahoma State -4 -110 | Unit Value: 2
Note: Have I mentioned yet that I am not at all impressed with the play in the Big 10 this year?. While this conference has some good teams, overall, they have been as weak as I have seen them for a very long time. Indiana is in the category of just average and the fact is, if they had played in the conference that the Cowboys do, they would not be Bowling this year. I can't even begin to count the money I have made betting for and against the Hoosiers, because they are very predictable. They punish the lessor schools with their potent offensive attack, and they get punished when they play the Big Boys. While I would not say that OK State is a Big Boy, they do bring much more to the table in this one, including more team speed on both sides of the line of scrimmage. You can look at all 5 Indiana losses this year and in every one of them, they had severe stat deficiencies. That is also true in a game in which they won verses Iowa, with a lot of breaks giving them that win. Oklahoma State has the 9th best offense in the country. They also have the 7th best rushing offense. It does not take a Rocket Scientist to look and see, that against the better rushing teams of the Big 10, Indiana was just pathetic. Michigan State alone garnered 368 yards verses this team. Wisconsin 279 yards. Overall Rushing D numbers for Indiana look OK, but when you look further, you see that they played a lot of non-conference foes that pass the ball a lot. That works in their favor. This game does not. The QB for the Cowboys is the real deal and he can pass, and he can RUN. He should have a field day with the Hoosiers, and if OK State does not grab 40+ points in this contest, I will be hugely surprised. I am not here to say that the Hoosiers will not get some points of their own verses the Cowpoke D that is #104 in the country. However, that is somewhat decieving, considering the wide open conference in which they play. OK State will simply outscore Indiana in this game.
FERRINGO FOOTBALL
2-Unit Play. Take #458 Kentucky (-9) over Florida State (4 p.m., Monday, Dec. 31)
Note: Play up to -9.5. No play at 10.0 or higher.
I think this one is fairly obvious. I like the Wildcats in this one before whole FSU Suspension Fiasco and I don’t think the line here has properly adjusted. Kentucky beat a better Clemson team last year in their bowl game and this year they should handle the undermanned Seminoles. UK was terrible the last month of the year, but a closer look reveals that their losses were to powerhouses Tennessee (by 2), Georgia (by 11) and LSU (by 6). Two of the losses came in overtime. The ACC stinks and I think the Cats win this one by double digits.
3.5-Unit Play. Take #454 South Florida (-6) over Oregon (2 p.m., Monday, Dec. 31)
The Ducks are really on tilt. Since losing Dennis Dixon this team has gone in the tank and I just don’t trust Brady Leaf (or whoever else is quarterbacking the Ducks) in this one. This USF team is battle hardened and they have faced the type of speed they’ll be matched up against in the Sun Bowl. Oregon is 1-3 ATS in its last four bowl games and 1-5 ATS in December. USF is on a 14-6 ATS run and are 5-1 ATS in nonconference games. I think the Bulls drive the final nail in a once promising Oregon season.
Strike Point Football
4-Unit Play. #459 Take Indiana +4 over Oklahoma State (12/31 - 5:30 pm)
Here is a classic example of a team so excited to be in a bowl game against a team that finished in the middle of the pack in their conference in can't be thrilled to be in a game that is just so-so in their minds. Simply put: Indiana is playing for their late coach Terry Hoeppner and his dream that football could be won at Indiana. This will be their first bowl appearance since 1993, and so many intangibles play into this game that the Hoosiers find a way to win this game. I truly believe that. Also, with two spread offenses, I want the team with the better duel threat in Indiana's Kellen Lewis. Both quarterbacks are mobile, but Lewis can attack with the deep ball to 6'7'' James Hardy or bust one to the house with his feet. Indiana is playing for so much more than a simple bowl victory. And that will be the difference and the reason they capture their program's season goal.
5-Unit Play #462 Take Clemson -2 over Auburn (12/31 - 7:30 pm)
With two athletic defenses and special teams, I look for the offensive production to be the difference in this one. And with Auburn's Brandon Cox still looking like a freshman at times despite his senior status, Clemson is the way to go. I liked what I saw from first year starter Cullen Harper, and the Tigers' ability to put together a balanced attack with C.J. Spiller and James Davis on the ground to keep the Auburn defense off-balanced will have Clemson a winner here. I saw Auburn's inability to score consistently this year and that will have them playing from behind. That's when they do not perform well and thus Clemson gets a bowl win for the ACC.
Ted Sevransky
20* Bowl Total of year
Over 54 Air Force
Teddy Covers ( SAME GUY)
South Fla -6
Fresno St +6
Auburn +3 -120
Tim Trushel
California and Fresno st. (regular plays)
Alex Smart
2 unit Oregon
Wayne Root
Chair-Airforce
BEN POWERS
california over 55
fresno st. under 55
clemson under 46'
Ben Burns' Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR!
Utah
WINNING POINTS HOOPS:
***BEST BET
Xavier* over Kansas State by 18
The home team will have had a buffer game vs. slow-tempo Delaware State prior to
this, after two straight losses at Arizona State and home to Tennessee. Arizona State
shot 59% against them and Tennessee sprang a new kid who wreaked havoc inside
against them. K-State is a young team away from home on New Year’s Eve and the
Beasley kid dropped a publicized 40 points on a nobody last week. Senior guard Blake
left that game on crutches. XAVIER, 84-66.
Dr. Vegas
The Chic-Fil-A-Bowl pits Auburn against Clemson in what promises to be a solid defensive game. Getting right to the numbers, we see Auburn at 8-4 SU and 6-5 ATS. Clemson is 9-3 SU and 6-5 ATS. Auburn has outscored their opponents by just over 90, while Clemson has outscored their opponents by nearly 200. Clemson comes into this game with two straight ATS and SU losses in a row.
Looking at the Exclusive Dr. Vegas Power Ratings, we find Clemson at -1.1, with an opponent power rating of -4.2. Auburn stands at +12.0, with an opponent power rating of +4.8. This stat speaks volumes. Auburn has fared better against tougher opponents.
Clemson’s games have had an average total of 52.5, while Auburn’s games have averaged 41, another sign of their swarming defense, which they hope to showcase in this game.
The primary question will be if Clemson can rise to the challenge the Auburn defense will throw at them. Can they establish a running game? If Auburn can get their pass run on point, this game will be over early.
Dr. Vegas: Take Auburn over Clemson.
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Globalwide Sports
Sport Game Selection
NCAA Florida State vs. Kentucky
Pick: Kentucky -9.5
This game started as a pick'em and it has jumped all the way to 9.5 points. That's because Florida State will be without 36 players. That is an extreme amount of players for a team to lose for a game. Florida State wasn't even a very good team even with their full team. This game has the potential to get very ugly. Florida State will not have the manpower to go 4 full quarters.
Tom Scott's BOWL WInner
Fresno State vs Georgia Tech - 2:00 PM EST
Play ON: #455 FRESNO STATE plus the points.
We acknowledge the defensive edges owned by Georgia Tech in this game but the game results on the season offer no edge. Tech played six bowl teams and, despite being the favorite in four of them, won only once and covered once. Four of those games were at home. In their only two road games against winning teams, the Bumblebees lost both outright as chalk. Fresno's record isn't much better. The Bulldogs went 1-4 SU against the five bowlers they faced with three covers. It's the numbers that lead us to Fresno State. Pat Hill is a remarkable 16-2 ATS as an underdog against non-conference teams who are not undefeated while Georgia Tech is 1-8 ATS in its last nine tries as a favorite against a winning team. Travelling the breadth of the country to play a game no one will watch leaves Tech disinterested here.
PREDICTION: FRESNO STATE 34 - Georgia Tech 27
Point Train 2007 Football - 10-UNIT BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR
4:30:00 PM OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (-4.5) over Indiana Hoosiers
Rating: 10 units
Oklahoma State (-) over Indiana at 5:30 pm EST The Hoosiers have all the motivation in the world as they are making their first bowl appearance in 14 years and have the memory of former HC Terry Hoeppner on their minds. While the motivation might keep Indiana in the game, it won’t be nearly enough to overcome Oklahoma State’s explosive offense. The Cowboys boast one of the nation’s most potent offenses. Led by a balanced running game that features three runners with over 600 rushing yards this year, OK State is seventh in the country with 245.8 rushing ypg. But the Cowboys offense is no one-trick pony as it can also light it up through the air. QB Zac Robinson has thrown for better than 2500 yards and 20 touchdowns and is 17th in the nation in passing efficiency. Additionally, star wideout Adarius Bowman is likely to return for this game, giving the Cowboys yet another weapon. Indiana’s defense has had its share of problems this year, especially in the second half. The Hoosiers have allowed 32.7 ppg over their last six games and will have an extremely difficult time holding back an Oklahoma State offense averaging 35.2 ppg over its last six. The only reason Indiana has had any success on defense is because of a strong pass rush. But that pass rush will be handcuffed in this game by a Cowboys offensive line that has allowed just 11 sacks all year, good for 5th in the country. The Hoosiers are one of the feel-good stories of the college football season but they just don’t have the talent on defense to stay in this game. Ride with Oklahoma State.
Dave Malinsky Free Advice
GAME: Oregon @ South Florida Dec 31, 2007 2:00PM
SPORT: College Football Picks
PICK: South Florida
Offered at: -6 BookMaker
REASON FOR PICK: 4* SOUTH FLORIDA over OREGON
We don’t mind laying less than a touchdown when the far better teams brings a much greater sense of purpose to a bowl game, and that is the case in this one. An emerging South Florida program that made the most of its bowl opportunity LY now has a chance to grab what will appear to them as a trophy win, despite the fact that it is literally nothing more than a “Lame Duck” they are facing, and that passion will help to break this game wide open.
We are not sure if Oregon is indeed a bowl team right now either physically or mentally. So much of the early promise of this season was based on the superlative play of QB Dennis Dixon, and once he went down it changed them in so many ways. Not only were they not nearly as talented in an offense that is built around the QB making plays, but they lost heart as well. Once they lost the target of playing in a BCS game their fire went out down the stretch with three straight defeats, and there is little to suggest that this is the environment for them to turn it around. Now they are down to their fourth starting QB in as many games, with Justin Roper currently sitting atop the depth chart, but also dealing with a depleted WR corps that saw injuries take a major toll, which does not help Roper’s acclimation. And in terms of interest do not look for the fans to be of much help – Oregon has sold only 2,200 tickets from its allotment, among the lowest of any team in any bowl this year. Considering Mike Bellotti’s ugly track record in these games, with an 0-4 SU and 3-1 ATS tally the last five years, we do not expect anything special from the Ducks at all.
It is a much different story for the Bulls. There were quality wins over West Virginia and Auburn to continue the building process under Jim Leavitt, and down the stretch they exploded for 144 points in winning and covering the last three games, making plays from all areas. They bring a physical and balanced offense that can win the line of scrimmage against an ordinary Oregon defensive front that is hindered by injuries in the LB corps, and also an aggressive defense that came up with 41 takeaways this season, returning seven of them directly for touchdowns. They finished 7th in pass efficiency defense, 18th in rushing defense, and 3rd in tackles for loss, which is all bad news for the overmatched Roper, who will be forced into repeated mistakes.
Look for South Florida to be able to control the ball at will here, with Oregon not realizing how physical of a runner QB Matt Grothe is, and for an aggressive Bull defense to come up with some game-turning plays. It leads to an easy ATS win at this short line.
PSYCHIC
NCAAF
2 units California -4.5
3 units South Florida -6
2 units Fresno +6
3 units Florida State +9.5
3 units Indiana +5
4 units Clemson -2.5 MAJOR
Ben Burns
Sunbowl Blowout
Under Ore/USF
Personal Favorite
Clemson
Dec GOM
Indiana
Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR! --
Utah..NBA
TOUTHOUSE
California vs. Air Force: Armed Forces Bowl
Air Force +3.5 (-110)
The California Golden Bears were a train-wreck coming down the stretch, losing six of their last seven games while going 0-7 against the spread, and they cannot be too thrilled about facing a disciplined Air Force Falcons team in the Armed Forces Bowl.
It is hard to believe that the Golden Bears were poised to become the top ranked team in the country two months ago, when they were ranked number two and gave away a home game to Oregon State on the same day that number one lost. California never did recover from that loss, and more disturbingly, it looked as if they just threw in the towel, losing to the likes of Stanford and Washington. In fact, their only win in the last seven games was by just three points at home vs. lowly Washington State.
Air Force quietly had a very nice season going 9-3 straight up, and they were very nice to their supporters going a scintillating 9-2 ATS. Oddly, while California lost its last seven games ATS, Air Force ended the season with a 7-0 ATS run! Now normally, that combination would give value to the Cal side, but that does not appear to be the case here, as the Golden Bears still appear to be getting a little too much respect from the oddsmakers.
Finally, while Pac-10 underdogs have been great bets in bowl games lately, Pac-10 bowl favorites are just 9-16 ATS since 2000.
Air Force +3.5
Florida State +9.5 (-110)
Much has been made of the fact that the Florida State Seminoles have 36 players that are suspended for the Music City Bowl vs. the Kentucky Wildcats, but most of the suspended players are reserves, so this line move looks like an overreaction.
Sure, the Noles now have practically zero depth, but that is more of a concern over several games than it is for one bowl game at the end of the year. They did have one key suspension on defense in cornerback Patrick Robinson, who had six interceptions this season, but the other 10 starters remain in tact, and the only notable suspension on offense is that of backup quarterback Xavier Lee, who has been coming in for a few situational plays each game. That just means that starting quarterback Drew Weatherford won?t get any relief this game, but truth be told, he has actually been steady if not spectacular, with just one interception in 10 games.
Kentucky was having a dream season, and the were actually ranked in the top 10 at 6-1 after upsetting LSU, but the Wildcats promptly went out and lost four of their last five games to finish at 7-5. The problem down the stretch was the Kentucky defense, which allowed 45, 31, 24 and 52 points respectively in the four late-season losses.
Also in Florida State?s favor is the fact that ACC underdogs have been surprisingly excellent bets in bowl games, going a stunning 19-6, 76.0 percent against the spread since 2000!
Florida State +4.5
Sun Bowl : South Florida -6.0 (-105)
The Sun Bowl is by no means the venue either of these clubs felt they?d be this bowl season. Each at one point was ranked the #2 team in the country, yet each failed to hold onto that spot the following week. South Florida saw its hopes squashed when they paid Rutgers a visit and lost by a 30-27 final count in a wild and wacky contest. Oregon?s hopes to play in the National Championship were all but squashed in the desert when QB Dennis Dixon ripped apart his knee, and the Ducks went on to get embarrassed for the second year in a row to Arizona.Still, it was a very successful campaign for the SFL Bulls who won nine games for the second time under the watchful eye of Head Coach Jim Leavitt. A win here would give them double-digit wins for the first time in the programs history. QB Matt Grothe opened up many people?s eyes with his efforts throughout the regular season. He?s a dual threat that threw for 2473 yards with a TD/INT ratio of 13/12, and he also rushed for 850 yards and hit pay dirt 10 times. The offense exploded this season with him at the helm as the 36 PPG they averaged this season was 13-points higher than their average of a year ago.
If only Dixon didn?t hurt himself?.you?ll hear that a lot from the Duck faithful, but you do have to ask yourself what might have been if he didn?t screw his knee up against ASU on to have Arizona finish the job off. Their lone loss up until that point was against Cal in a game they handed away, and with the Top 10 in the polls changing on a weekly basis, they had an excellent opportunity to play in the BCS Championship Game with games against UCLA and Oregon State only left on the docket.
I question the Ducks mindset here greatly whereas South Florida is still looking to build the foundation of its young program that only started playing D1 A ball back in 2001. Lay the points?..
Chick-Fil-A-Bowl: Auburn +2.5
Auburn was a relatively boring, defense-first team this year, exactly the type of team that gets overlooked when bowl season comes around. The Tigers lacked a single marquee offensive playmaker in a conference loaded with them. QB Brandon Cox, a senior, threw only nine touchdown passes all year, and the Tigers finished with the 107th ranked passing offense in the country. And leading rusher Ben Tate split carries with Brad Lester and Mario Fennin, leaving Auburn without a 1000 yard rusher either. In short, this team didn?t impress the betting public very much, giving us value supporting them here as an underdog against an inferior team from a weaker conference.
Auburn?s defense was downright dominant all year. On the road, against Heisman winner Tim Tebow, Auburn held the Gators to their season low in both points and total yards, engineering the outright road upset. On the road, against Heisman runner-up Darren McFadden at Arkansas, the Razorbacks, too, were held to a season low in both yardage and points in an outright upset win for the Tigers. We?re talking about a defense that held five of their last seven opponents to ten points or less, the type of defense that should have little trouble shutting down this pedestrian Clemson attack.
Clemson dominated weak foes all year long, but in sharp contrast to Auburn, they did not fare well when stepping up in class. These Tigers were more like kitty-cats against their elite level foes, blasted at home by both Virginia Tech and Boston College, while being held to a single field goal in an ugly loss at Georgia Tech. And, unlike Auburn, Clemson did not fare well away from home against quality defenses. Tommy Bowden?s squad lost straight up as a double digit favorite against Kentucky in their bowl game last year. Expect a similar result this time around.
Take Auburn.
Larry Ness bowl underdog GOY
Fresno St
L.T. Profits
Best Bet Oregon.
FRESNO ST. +6
Rob Veno NCAA
Bluechip O/U Report: AF/CAL OVER
Rocco Spacamuro
100*Fresno St +6
Real Animal free play
2* Frenso St
Sharp Betting
Air Force
Geo Tech
S Florida
Clemson
Mike Rose
Air Force +4
Scotty Spreitzer CBB Blowout
Siena