PPP/Gavozzi Bowls
1*Cal
3*Cal over
1*S Florida
1*Fresno
1*Florida St
4*Oak St
1*Auburn
3*Auburn under
Keith Martin
CFB BOWLS...Oregon/So Florida Over 51.5
CBB TOTAL...Georgetown Over 129.5
Jeff Benton 50 dimer - S FL
NORTHCOAST
Late Phone Selections:
4* California -4 (-120) vs Air Force @ 12:30 pm ET Top Play of the Day
3* Fresno St +6 vs Georgia Tech @ 2 pm ET
3* Florida St +9 vs Kentucky @ 4 pm ET
Other Star Rated Selections:
No selections at this time
Top Opinions
Oregon +6 vs S Florida (Sun Bowl) @2:00 pm ET
Under 52 Oregon/S Florida (Triple Play) Marquee Totals Play
Oklahoma -5 vs Indiana (Insight Bowl) @6 pm ET
Over 69 Oklahoma St/Indiana (Triple Play) Marquee Totals Play
Regular Opinions
Over 56 Air Force/California (Double Play) Marquee Totals Play
Under 57.5 Florida St/Kentucky (Double Play) Marquee Totals Play
Under 54 Fresno St/Georgia Tech (Single Play) Marquee Totals Play
Clemson -2.5 vs Auburn (Chick-fil-A Bowl) @7:30 pm ET
Under 46.5 Clemson/Auburn (Single Play) Marquee Totals Play
Brandon Lang
15d Cal
5d So Fla
5d Fresno
Dominic David
3-0 4* Plays
4* Fresno State
3* Indiana
2* Over FSU/Kentucky
2* Over Clemson/Auburn
1* California
1* Oregon
Winning Angle Football for Monday
NCAA
Play Auburn (+2.5) over Clemson
Game starts at 8:00 P.M. EST
(Guaranteed NCAA Winner)
Auburn has won 15 of the last 16 games after having won 3 of the last
4 games and they have also won 7 of the last 8 games coming off a
conference home win. Auburn has won 16 of the last 19 games coming
off a win against the spread and they are only allowing an average of
16 points a game on defense this season.
Play Air Force (+4) over California*
Game starts at 12:30 P.M. EST
California has lost 7 of the last 8 games against the spread coming
off a loss against the spread and they have also lost 23 of the last
35 games against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
Bonus NCAA Plays for Monday:
Play Indiana (+4.5) over Oklahoma State*
Play Fresno State (+6) over Georgia Tech*
Play Florida State (+9) over Kentucky*
BIG Al
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Portland, as Utah falls into 69-33, 96-55, 109-71-, and 89-48 ATS systems of mine. Let's take a look at our 69-33 angle. Here, what we want to do is play on certain home favorites of -5 or more points in the regular season, if our home team is off a SU/ATS loss, and is playing with same-season revenge vs. a winning division rival. Portland has reeled off 13 consecutive wins to move its record to 18-12 on the season, and two of those victories came at the expense of Jerry Sloan's Jazz. On Dec. 14, Portland won 99-91 in the Rose Garden, and the Blazers won 97-86 on Dec. 11 at the Delta Center. But Utah is a solid 39-20 ATS since 1990 at home with double revenge, including 11-2 ATS when the Jazz are off B2B SU/ATS losses. This will be a very tough game for Portland. Not only will it play tonight without rest, but it will be without Coach Nate McMillan, who will be attending a funeral. Assistant Coach Dean Demopoulos will work the sidelines in his stead. Portland has played well above expectations thus far, but 10 of its 13 wins during the streak have come at home, where the Blazers are 15-3. On the road, Portland is just 3-9. Take the Jazz. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my 5* College Football Game of the Year. It will be available here tomorrow.
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Fla State Seminoles plus the points over Kentucky, as Bowl Favorites of -7.5 points or more are a poor 0-10 ATS since 1980 off a SU/ATS conference loss to end the regular season, when they're matched up against a foe that is also off a SU loss. Kentucky lost 52-50 to Tennessee in its final game, as a 2.5-point fave, and Florida State lost 45-12 to Florida, so Bobby Bowden's men fit our 100% system perfectly. Take Florida State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks plus the points over South Florida. Oregon has dropped its last three games (both SU and ATS) after its star QB Dennis Dixon sustained an injury. The knee-jerk reaction might be to fade these teams in their bowl games, but they actually do quite well. Since 1980, teams off 3+ losses to end the regular season are a solid 63% ATS, including 100% (7-0 ATS) when getting more than 4 points. Take Oregon. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my 5* Winner today in the NBA or my 5* College Football Game of the Year. That big play will be released tomorrow right here.
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Fresno State Bulldogs plus the points over Ga Tech, as Fresno falls into two of my best bowl systems that are 71-31 and 51-20 ATS. Georgia Tech lost its last regular season game, 31-17, to Georgia, and the Yellow Jackets also failed to cover their last 2 games. Since 1980, Bowl favorites are a poor bet off exactly 2 ATS losses, if they also lost SU in their final regular season game (37% ATS), including a horrid 25% if they're laying more than 3 points. Also, the underdog in Fresno's bowl games are a perfect 7-0 ATS since 1999. Ga Tech coach Jon Tenuta is rumored to be moving on after this game to take the defensive coordinator position at LSU (replacing Bo Pelini), and that distraction can't benefit the Yellow Jackets here. On the other side of the field, Fresno coach Pat Hill is a master motivator, and his kids always get excited to play a school from a big conference. Indeed, Fresno is 24-8 ATS as underdogs vs. non-conference foes since 1997, including 13-1 when its foe is NOT off a win of more than 2 TDs. Finally, since 1980, Ga Tech is a poor 1-11 ATS as favorites vs. non-conference foes, if the Yellow Jackets are off a SU/ATS loss. Take the points with Fresno. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my 5* NBA Winner today or my 5* College Football Game of the Year. It will be released here tomorrow
Seabass Hockey
10* Calgary
Spreitzer 20* Air Force
Spreitzer TKO GOM Fresno St
Ness Insider S. FLA
Sports Investors Network
Air Force Falcons @ California Golden Bears
NCAAF: VS
Game Date: 12/31/2007 | GameTime: 12:30 EST
Pick: AIR FORCE +4// FOUR UNITS// LATE GAMES TO FOLLOW AFTER 1:00 EST -110
About this Pick:
The Cal Bears limp into the Armed Forces Bowl to take on the resurgent Falcons on New Year's Eve. California had a “golden” start to the 2007 season, reeling off 5 consecutive victories. Then the tide changed and the squad won just once in the final seven games to finish up a mere 6-6. Meanwhile, Air Force lost only three times this year, with all losses coming against teams that all qualified for Bowls and played well. The Falcons even enjoyed a win over Notre Dame in blowout fashion and then closed out the regular season with a decisive 55-23 victory versus San Diego State to build some momentum for the postseason. Quarterback Nate Longshore was supposed to be the offensive savior for the Golden Bears this season, but he had some trouble living up to those lofty expectations. Cal ’s vaunted passing “attack” placed a pedestrian 52nd in the nation with an average of only 234 ypg. Justin Forsett picked up a bit of the slack, averaging 117 ypg on the ground. Except for meetings against non-bowl teams Washington State and Louisiana Tech, the Bears were unable to hold any opponents to less than 20 points this season, resulting in a scoring defense that allowed 26 ppg. The run defense for the group was especially suspect as it permitted 151.9 ypg, which ranked a poor seventh in the pass-happy Pac-10 and 58th in the country. The Falcons present quite a challenge for any defense. Chad Hall not only led the Falcons in rushing with 1,415 yards on 211 carries, but he also led the run-oriented program with receptions. The Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year, Hall made it into the end zone 15 times coming out of the backfield for a rushing attack that was again among the best in the country. Under the direction of new head coach Troy Calhoun, Air Force was much more than a team that simply pounded away in the trenches. In addition to placing first in the conference and second in the country with nearly 300 ypg on the ground, Calhoun tweaked the offense so that quarterback Shaun Carney could actually become a threat when in the pocket. Carney completed 62% of his 193 attempts for 1,423 yards and 8 touchdowns. The Falcons defense benefited from the team’s strong rushing attack, which kept them rested. Overall, the squad finished 19th in the nation in scoring defense with just 19 ppg allowed. We have a huge dichotomy of motivation in this game. There probably isn't another team in college football that is less excited to be going to a bowl than Cal , perhaps except for West Virginia . The season, so promising at the beginning, so tantalizing when the Bears started 5-0 and reached #2 in the country, came completely unraveled. The season spiraled and spiraled and went completely down the drain with a 20-13 loss at Stanford to end the regular season. This is the classic case of a favored team not happy with its bowl destination, while their opponent is thrilled to be back in postseason play. We always look to play ON a non-BCS Conference school Bowl team against a BCS Conference opponent. MAC & WAC teams, and other non-BCS schools, will be highly motivated to prove themselves against BCS foes. Such was the case in this year’s Motor City Bowl, in which Central Michigan nearly knocked off Purdue, but still covered the spread. The Chippewas were looking to avenge an ugly blowout loss to the Boilermakers and nearly pulled it off. Air Force is in a similar situation, as they were blasted by the Bears in their last matchup; however, we note that the service academies are 4-0 ATS in Bowl games when playing with revenge, with Air Force responsible for 3 of those spread wins. The Falcons are also 4-0 ATS vs. opponents off a SU loss, thrashing the spread by nearly 17 ppg! With their Pac-10 neighbor, Arizona State , losing SU & ATS in the Holiday Bowl against Texas , Bowl teams not favored by 16+ points or an underdog of 3+ points are now 1-12 SU & 0-13 ATS, failing to cover the spread by about 2 TDs per game on average. Teams that failed to enjoy a high-scoring win in the latter half of the season have continued to be unproductive in bowl games. Specifically, we play AGAINST a Bowl team off 6 games without a SU win scoring 29+ points vs. an opponent off a SU win in its last game and not 3 games scoring 31+ points. With Boston College failing to beat the spread against Michigan State , these teams are 0-16 ATS over the past 20+ seasons! Ultimately, we expect this to be a close game throughout; however, the Falcons ground game should wear down the Bears down the stretch and be the difference in the contest.TAKE THE POINTS WITH AIR FORCE
Lenny Del Genio's 20* Bowl Massacre (70% in Bowls)
Play on South Florida at 2:00 ET. We would like to start out by saying that Nick Saban sucks. It's rare that we would criticize a coach that delivered us a win, but the Alabama Head Coach's 2nd half game plan was so gutless that he almost cost us. Game was far too close for comfort. Anyways, South Florida over Oregon is one result you can breath easy on. Since QB Dennis Dixon, Oregon has been nothing more than "dead ducks." They lost each of their last three games, including a heartbreaker to rival Oregon State in the Civil War, 38-31, in the finale. South Florida also experienced a three-game losing streak during the course of the season, but finished strong with a 3-0 SU/ATS close to the campaign. Turnovers are a big edge for USF, as Oregon coughed it up eight times over the last three games while the Bulls forced 14 takeaways during the same stretch. The Bulls' defense forced a turnover in every game this season, including three or more eight times. They are also 12-4 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Oregon, who has lost their last four bowl games, is just not the same team without Dixon. That means they'll have to rely more on the run. The Bulls have an impressive rush defense, which ranks 12th nationally (112.0 yards/game), and they led the Big East in interceptions (23). We look for a dominant defensive performance and cover from USF. South Florida is our 20* Bowl Massacre.
Good luck, Lenny
Lenny Del Genio's 25* Bowl Total of the Year! - Monday (3-0 TY)
Play OVER Indiana/Oklahoma State at 5:30 ET. Throughout this tremendous totals run during the Bowls, we've exclusively been using Overs in certain games with high totals. The Insight Bowl is yet another opportunity. If you've been following the plays, you know that we have a certain December Bowl system that is cashing in at over 80% that tells us to play Over in a given situation. Consider that in 8 of Oklahoma State's 12 games this season, either they or their opponent scored 41 or more points. Only once did neither the Cowboys or the opposition score 38 or more. Indiana scored 27 or more points in all but two games this season. In the other two games, the defense allowed 27 and 33 points respectively (both losses). The Hoosiers also allow nearly 33 points per game away from home. Oklahoma State is rushing for well over 200 yards/game on the year and 200 is precisely how many rushing yards IU is allowing on the road this season. The Hoosiers are 8-1 Over the total as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points while OSU is 13-3 Over the total if coming off a poinstpread loss. Both situations are in play here. Each team's secondary is dreaful. Both allow opposing quarterbacks to complete over 60% of their passes and in the case of the Cowboys, it's over 65%. OVER Indiana/Oklahoma State is our 25* Bowl Total of the Year!
Chicago Sports Connection
Cal -4.5
NORTHCOAST COMPS
3* MARSH -3
OKL ST...CFB
Sebastian
20* AF
20* Oregon under
20* Clemson
20* Fl St.
30* Ok St. over
100* Fresno St.
Kelso 100 unit play bowl game
Ok State
He also picked
S Fl
Air Force
Kentucky
Fresno St
Drew Gordon:
1. 300,000* Fresno State
2. 50,000* South Florida
1. Fresno State- Several strong reasons to like the Bulldogs in today’s Humanitarian Bowl, but let’s start with Georgia Tech’s coaching situation. Chan Gailey is gone, but his successor, Paul Johnson, isn’t coaching the bowl game. Rather, it’ll be John Tenuta, the Jackets well-known defensive coordinator doing a one and done head coaching job… Can you say “Lame Duck!” It remains to be seen just how motivated Tenuta can get his troops, when he’s got LSU's Les Miles courting him left and right.
Georgia Tech’s biggest issue is keeping pace with a Fresno State offense that can and will score points, averaging 35 ppg on 469 total yards over their last 3 games.
Besides Tashard Choice and the run game, the Yellow Jackets cupboard is bare.
G-Tech ranks 102nd in the NCAA in passing, thanks to some piss-poor quarterbacking by Taylor Bennett (completing just 49% of his passes).
The Bulldogs QB Tom Brandstater, on the other hand, is enjoying a breakout year, completing 61% of his passes, while tossing 14 TDs and just 5 picks. He has a knack for steeping up in big games, like he did against Kansas State, where he completed 23 of 29 passes for 313 yards and 2 TDs en route to a 45-29 home win. He’s complemented by a running game that uses the platoon system very effectively, alternating between backs seamlessly. Fresno State has one of the most balanced offenses in the country, passing for 202 yards/game, while rushing for 204 yards/game. Worried about Tenuta’s blitz packages? Don’t worry too much, this Bulldogs O-line surrendered only 18 sacks on the season.
Finally, let’s look at the trends, as coach Pat Hill is 4-0 ATS as a bowl underdog, including their 2002 win over Georgia Tech in the Silicon Valley Bowl. Georgia Tech meanwhile is just 1-6-1 ATS over their last 8 games as a favorite. Look guys, on one side you have a team that’s excited to be here, playing damn good football (Win over Kansas State was impressive), and will have a strong crowd edge in Boise (G-Tech doesn’t travel well). While on the other side, you’ve got a disappointed team, led by a lame duck coach and a QB that couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn! It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if the Bulldogs won outright, but we’ll take the points regardless, and grab the cash with Fresno State.
Take Fresno State plus the points over Georgia Tech as your top-rated play of the day.
2. South Florida- Say what you will about the Ducks, but as soon as QB Dennis Dixon went down, everything changed. They tried Brady Leaf in his stead, but that clearly didn't work. Now they're not sure which red-shirt freshman is going to get the call against this ultra-aggrssive, ultra-quick Bulls defense. Let me make it easy for you: it doesn't matter and here's why:
The Ducks have been forced to completetly scale back their offense, and pound away with RB Jonathan Stewart again and again. This strategy hasn't worked over their last 3 games, averaging only 18 ppg on 316 total yards (0-3 SUATS), and it won't work this afternoon either. Bulls are allowing only 3.2 yards per carry, and you can ask Central Florida Kevin Smith (18 carries for 55 yards) or West Virginia's Steve Slaton (13 carries for 54 yards) how good this South Florida run defense is!
On the other side of the ball, you've got to like what you're seeing from Matt Grothe, who's completed 68% of his passes or better over his last 3 games, tossing 4 TDs and 2 picks, and most importantly going 3-0 SUATS over that stretch. He's may not be as fast or as polished a passer as Dixon, but he still averages 4.6 yards per carry and has 10 rushing TDs on the season. He should have little trouble against a Ducks defense that's struggling right now, allowing 29 ppg over their last 3.
Bottom line, it all comes down to the Ducks inability to get anything done on offense. It keeps their defense on the field longer, it keeps the ball in Grothe hands longer, and in the end it will cost them this bowl game. Bulls roll!
Take South Florida comfortably over Oregon in this afternoon's Sun Bowl.
Tonight's Game...
1. 50,000* Clemson
1. Clemson- Both teams in this game feature stout defenses, but I have serious reservations about Auburn's offense, which has looked less-than-average of late, mustering 24 ppg on just 290 yards of total offense. In order to keep pace with Cullen Harper and RBs Davis and Spiller, Auburn is going to need to have one of its best offensive days in recent memory, and I just don't see that happening against this Clemson defense.
True, Clemson is dealing with some significant suspensions, including LBs Watkins and Billie. However, they still have a lot of defensive firepower, including DE Merling & a strong secondary led by their safeties, Clemons and Hamlin. If Clemson were playing a school that could put up points in a hurry, then we would need to reconsider this play. But as it stands with the suspensions, Auburn will still have trouble scoring in this one.
Finally, let's consider some past history, as we all remember Clemson's last Bowl game, when Kentucky beat them outright 28-20 as 11'-point favorites! Make no mistake, coach Bowden remembers that day well, and he'll have his team out for redemption in this one.
Bottom line, while running on this Auburn stop-unit maybe tough to do, QB Cullen Harper has been dissecting defenses all season long, and he'll do it again tonight. Auburn offensive deficiencies mean they simply cannot play from behind, and I suspect that's exactly where they'll be playing from in this contest. Look for Clemson to get the solid win and cover tonight in Atlanta.
Take Clemson over Auburn in tonight's Chik-Fil-A Bowl.
Insiders Plays
YTD NBA = 38-20
4 Units on UTAH -7
3 Units on Orlando -3
Sports investors
In/OK OVER
NO in CBB
Vegas PipeLine
USF
NICK JONES
California -4.5 -110
Wayne Root
No Limit Bowl Game Of Year
Oregon