NFL underdogs continued their season-long hot streak on Sunday, going 9-3 ATS across Week 9 action. Dogs improve to 77-57 ATS (58%) on the season.
8:15 p.m. ET: Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers
This Monday Night showdown features a pair of non-conference opponents trending in opposite directions. The Bears (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) have lost three straight games and just fell to the 49ers 33-22, failing to cover as 4.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Steelers (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) have won three straight games and just beat the Browns 15-10, winning outright as 5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Earlier in the week we saw this line fall from 6.5 to 6, signaling some respected money grabbing the points with the road dog Bears. However, we saw some strong late buyback in recent days on the Steelers, with Pittsburgh getting steamed back up to -7, which is where we stand now. Chicago has value as a road dog (50-30 ATS, 62% this season) and a primetime dog (18-8 ATS, 69%).
We could also be looking at a lower scoring game. The total opened at 40 and respected under money has dropped it down to 39. Non-conference unders are 28-15 (65%) this season. If the total is 45 or less, the under is 25-15 (63%). When the total stays the same or falls, the under is 42-35 (55%). Tony Corrente, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (58%). The forecast calls for mid 50s, clear skies and 5 MPH winds. Both of these teams have been profitable to the under, with the Bears 6-2 to the under and the Steelers 5-1-1 to the under.
Lean Bears Lean Under
Thank you Jimmy! This week has me shook the way things played out. Might have to keep my pennies til next week. I say expect the unexpected because so many bettors will probably be doubling up to try to save their horrible week! Always appreciate the knowledge
The actual total opened at 45 and has been been bet down to 40 this is market over reaction not sharp money, some of took chi beginning of the week at 7.5
Cat you should have been fine with atl den minn and tenn last night, Pluss sat
Yea fine all week Timmy- my only problem is I put more on the losing teams than the winning teams. Plus I can’t buy points with my guy- so that screws me sometimes. Still all good- I am ahead compared to a lot of others in this world thanks to you guys. Let me tell you- if I didn’t have this forum- I would have lost a shit ton this week playing catch up! Thankful for you guys
Timmy is right opened up at 45 bet down to 40 my book has it at 40 right now
Over/Under Movement Highlights
CURRENT
40.0
PREV
40.0
OPEN
45.5
HIGH
45.5
LOW
38.5
Situational Performance vs. Over/Under
Chicago Bears Pittsburgh Steelers
-4.5 Avg +/- vs. O/U Line -4.71
2-6-0 Overall O/U Record 1-5-1
Chicago Bears Record As... Pittsburgh Steelers Record As...
AWAY TEAM 1-3-0 HOME TEAM 1-2-1
Most Recent Over/Under Win/Loss Results
Chicago Bears
Date Opp Score O/U
10/31 SF L 22-33 40.0up
10/24 @TB L 3-38 47.0down
10/17 GB L 14-24 44.0down
10/10 @LV W 20-9 46.0down
10/3 DET W 24-14 41.5down
9/26 @CLE L 6-26 45.0down
9/19 CIN W 20-17 44.5down
9/13 @LAR L 14-34 46.0up
1/3 GB L 16-35 48.0up
12/27 @JAX W 41-17 47.0up
Pittsburgh Steelers
Date Opp Score O/U
10/31 @CLE W 15-10 43.0down
10/18 SEA W 23-20 43.0PUSH
10/10 DEN W 27-19 40.0up
10/3 @GB L 17-27 45.0down
9/26 CIN L 10-24 42.0down
9/19 LV L 17-26 46.5down
9/12 @BUF W 23-16 47.5down
1/3 @CLE L 22-24 44.5up
12/27 IND W 28-24 43.5up
12/22 @CIN L 17-27 40.5up
I'm in the same boat as bearcat; this site and all you guys help me so very much. I'd be lost without the great information I learn. I've got a notebook that I started last year so I can refer to when Timmy gets busy