8:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams (2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2)
These NFC West rivals are coming off opposite Week 3 performances. The Rams took care of business against the Cardinals, winning 20-12 and covering as 3.5-point road favorites. On the flip side, the 49ers fell to the Broncos 11-10, losing straight up as 1.5-point road favorites. This line opened with the 49ers listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they're rushing to the window to grab the points with the defending champion Rams. However, despite 75% of bets backing Los Angeles, we've seen this line remain stagnant. Typically if a +1.5 dog is getting such lopsided betting, you would likely seeing the line fall to a pick'em or even flip in their favor. However, we haven't seen this happen. This signals a sharp line freeze on the 49ers. Despite the heavy Rams betting, the sportsbooks refuse to drop the line and give out a better number to contrarian 49ers backers. Reading between the lines, it appears as though sharps are backing San Francisco and fading the trendy dog Rams.
The 49ers have value as a rare contrarian home favorite in a heavily bet primetime game. San Francisco is only receiving 25% of bets but 33% of money. The 49ers also have buy-low value as a team that didn't cover their last game against a sell-high team that did cover their last game. Also, why is a 1-2 team favored over a 2-1 team? Shouldn't it be the other way around? If it looks fishy, there is usually a reason for it. Kyle Shanahan has also had Sean McVay's number. Shanahan has won six straight regular season matchups against McVay. Brad Allen, the lead ref, is 56% ATS historically to the home team.
Pros have also targeted the under. It opened at 48 and has plummeted down to 42.5. The under is only receiving 37% of bets but 55% of money, a sharp under bet discrepancy. Divisional unders are 16-5 (76%) this season. The 49ers are 3-0 to the under this season. The Rams are 2-1 to the under. Lean 49rs