Monday's Best Bets - Sides

Monday's Best Bets - Sides
December 29, 2017
By BetOnline.ag

New Year's Day Bowl Games Best Bets – Sides

New Year's Day basically brings the end of the college football Bowl season as there are five games on the board on January 1st, culminating in the two CFB Playoff semi-final contests. After that it's just the National Championship game a week later, so New Year's Day really is the last day CFB bettors can dive into a full day of action.

So while the two playoff games are going to garner the bulk of the attention from the betting masses (and already have), they are not the games that I see very much value in the point spreads anymore. Initially the lines moved in favor of both SEC teams, and there really isn't much value in chasing that steam now, nor is there a great deal of value in fading it.

Instead, the Georgia/Oklahoma and Alabama/Clemson games look like great games for live betting at BetOnline.ag as there is tremendous potential for some great middling opportunities if these two games are indeed back-and-forth, close contests in the end. That's how I plan to attack the CFB Playoff semi-final games from a point spread perspective.

It's the the three other games on New Year's Day that do look more appealing to me from a point spread perspective, with the Peach Bowl between UCF and Auburn being the game I've decided to focus on.

BetOnline.ag Odds: Auburn (-9.5); Total set at 67

The Auburn Tigers enter the Peach Bowl as heavy favorites against undefeated UCF for a variety of reasons. For one, Auburn is a very good team that comes from the much better conference, and were one win away from being in the CFB Playoff themselves. They are the only team with wins over two of this year's playoff teams – they beat Georgia and Alabama – and UCF just had their HC take the same position at Nebraska after the Knights won the AAC Title. All of that and more has led the more well-known Tigers to be the consensus team in this game as VegasInsider.com shows about 80% of bets on this side coming Auburn's way. However, I'm looking at this game for Auburn in a much different light.

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Being the only team in the country to beat two of the four playoff teams is great, but it's also completely disheartening given Auburn isn't in the playoffs themselves. They couldn't get the job done the second time around against Georgia in the SEC Championship and have probably spent the past few weeks thinking about what could have been this year. Now they get to play the best team from a non-power five conference that they are probably taking a little lightly because we've seen time and time again that the “big” schools still look at these teams like their little brother and can often get caught. Simply put, where is the motivation going to come from for Auburn? After this game is done Auburn will be turning the t.v on and watching rivals Georgia and Alabama get their opportunity to advance to the National Championship game and that's got to be a bitter pill to swallow.

Secondly, while UCF HC Scott Frost did decide to take the position at Nebraska, he's remained committed to finishing out the year with UCF and trying to get them all the way to the finish line in terms of their perfect season. It's a rare thing to see a coach stick around for the Bowl game after taking another job, but Frost's love for his players showed after the Conference Championship game, and he's been grinding himself to the bone the past month pulling double duty for UCF and Nebraska. To be committed to that during this time of year is very admirable and his UCF players should be ready to play their asses off for him and the school in this Bowl game.

Some will obviously argue that Frost splitting his time between recruiting for Nebraska and gameplanning for UCF will leave the Knights under-prepared, but I don't think that will be the case. Frost has had his team prepared each and every week this year en route to a 12-0 SU year, and that's with only six days between games. Six days is probably all he really needed to get his guys ready and the emotional atmosphere this entire team will have will show up on camera. The players and Frost have all the motivation in the world to show up and do their best for one another in this game and that's the type of team I want to back.

So don't be surprised if UCF not only covers this big number, but wins this game outright to finish the year undefeated. The +295 ML price is definitely something I'll be investing in to a degree as I just don't see how Auburn shows up with any sort of edge, urgency, or desire to win here. This is definitely not where the Tigers want to be given what could have been, and with the Knights still playing for perfection, for one another, and their departing HC, I've got no problem fading the Tigers here and adding one more loss to Auburn's 0-4-1 ATS run against non-conference foes.

Odds per - BetOnline.ag

Best Bets
UCF +9.5
UCF ML +295