Monday's Best Bets - Totals

Monday's Best Bets - Totals
December 29, 2017

New Year's Day Bowl Games Best Bets – Totals

2018 finally arrives on Monday and for college football fans/bettors, that means that the CFB Playoffs finally kick-off. The past month has conjured up so much hype and excitement for these semi-finals games and how can they not with the “made for TV” trilogy between Alabama and Clemson. Those two programs will already know who they'll be facing in the championship should they win with the Rose Bowl game between Georgia and Oklahoma going off first, but this article isn't about who will win those games, as it's the totals that I believe are the better plays from a betting perspective.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Best Bet #1: Georgia/Oklahoma Under 60

Oklahoma players have already made it a point during their press conferences to discuss how big, strong, and physical the Georgia Bulldogs are – especially on defense – as the Sooners have no problem playing up the renowned SEC bias to put themselves in the underdog role. Bettors have put Oklahoma in that role as well with all the action coming Georgia's way since openers did have the Sooners as a -1 favorite. That SEC bias is definitely real in the minds of many, and for a Big 12 team that's used to playing in all out aerial attack shootouts, lighting up a talented SEC defense isn't going to happen with the majority believing Georgia will come out on top.

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While I do agree with the idea that Baker Mayfield and his Sooners teammates on offense will not have nearly the amount of success scoring points as they did for the majority of the year, I don't necessarily equate that with Oklahoma losing the game. Instead, what that suggest to me is the notion that this total of 60 is much to high for a matchup like this with the stake's it's got, as the Sooners much improved defense will have to step up and make sure their team has a chance to win.

Oklahoma did hold three of their last four opponents to 20 points or less – including doing it twice to a TCU team that just put up 39 on Stanford in their Bowl game. The lone outlier there was a 59-31 win over West Virginia in the regular season finale where the Sooners had bigger things on their mind going forward and basically relied on and knew Mayfield and the offense will allow them to easily win that game. But for all the accolades Mayfield and this offense got (and rightfully so), The Sooners knew they'd have to tighten things up defensively to get to this point and their 3-5 O/U run in their final eight games suggests that they have. With Georgia being primarily a running team, this will be a bit of a different challenge for that Sooners defense, but with Georgia only allowing 13.2 points per game, that Sooners defense knows they've probably got to keep Georgia to 24 points or less to have a chance to make it to the championship.

The Bulldogs have no problem relying on their defense and rushing attack to win games – two great things to count on if you are an 'under' bettor. HC Kirby Smart has coached as a DC in these playoff games before, and he's built this Georgia program in the mold of Alabama already. Georgia's 5-8 O/U record doesn't do this Bulldogs defense justice as there were just three games where they allowed more than 14 points against. Some of those 'overs' came because Georgia's attack was able to pile on a late TD or two in blowout wins in contests that had very low totals. Only five times against FBS competition did Georgia have totals of 50 or higher and they ended up going 2-3 O/U in those games, with only one game all year having the final score combine for more than 60 points. If Georgia has earned the respect of oddsmakers in terms of respecting the money that's come in on Georgia ATS and ML to flip them over to the favorite, do you really believe more likely to win a game that has 60+ points or one that stays below that threshold?

As I said before, I'm not entirely sold on Georgia winning this game, but nor do I see Oklahoma coming out and winning a game with both teams scoring in the 30's. No matter which way this turns out, this game has the makings of being a 24-21 type contest and that leaves us plenty of room for error on this 'under' bet.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Best Bet #2: Alabama/Clemson Over 47

It's the third year in a row we get a Alabama/Clemson game in the CFB Playoff, although it's the first time the National Title won't be on the line. With this being the rubber match you know there will be plenty of opinions for both sides in terms of the outright winner, but one thing I am surprised about is the fact that there isn't as much talk about the total. After all, the first two playoff meetings finished with 85 and 66 points.

Now, I know Clemson QB Deshaun Watson isn't under center and his play in the NFL this year proved he was an elite caliber QB at the collegiate level. Alabama HC Nick Saban knew it after losing the title last year, and while Clemson has relied more on their stout defense – especially the D-line – this came should turn into the third straight back-and-forth high-scoring affair between these two teams.

Both schools are known for their defense this year with Clemson allowing an average of 12.8 points per game and Alabama coming in at 11.5 points allowed per game. With those kind of averages oddsmakers were forced to put this total below the 50-point mark that the previous two CFB Playoff meetings had as they are the top two defenses in the country in terms of points allowed. But while they are in the Top-2 this year in that regard, both being ranked in the Top 20 is nothing new the past few years. Alabama has ranked # 1 or #2 in points allowed per game the past two years and topping out at 13.9/game, while Clemson topped out at 20.8/game in the 2015-16 season. So each of the previous two meetings had many expecting defensive slugfests and it was the offenses that stole the show and I've got no problem backing that the same thing will happen here.

Familiarity with an opponent brings an astute knowledge of tendencies and that could pose a huge problem for this Clemson defense. DC Brent Venables has been calling the shots for all three of these games with Alabama now, you know Nick Saban has a very good idea of what to expect from him and what works. After all, Alabama manged to put up 30+ on Venables defense in consecutive years with two different OC's, and while this will be the Tide's third year with a different OC, I would not be surprised at all if he follows suit and puts up 30+ on Clemson again. Finally, we can't forget that Alabama does have a history of going 'over' the number in Bowl games as they are 10-3 O/U in their last 13 Bowl games, the majority of which have come during Nick Saban's tenure.

Clemson knows they'll have to be able to match the Tide score for score in this game like they have the past two years, as this really could be a “coming out party” for QB Kelly Bryant in the same manner that that first meeting with Alabama two years ago was for Deshaun Watson. Bryant hasn't been asked to do a lot this year on the whole with his 13/6 TD to INT ratio, but he did rush for 11 TD's, threw for nearly 2700 yards, and had a 67.4 completion percentage. He'll be asked to use his legs to keep Alabama's defense guessing in a similar fashion to what Watson did for the Tigers in previous games, and the fact that he's an accurate passer and still has plenty of weapons around him will help. The Tigers did average 35.4 points per game this year with Bryant at the helm and coming close to that average here should be enough to put Clemson in the winner's circle once again.

This game has all the makings of another instant classic and while I doubt it will be the high-scoring shootouts we've seen the past two years, getting 24 points from both is easily attainable.