Monday's Early Bowl Tips

Monday's Early Bowl Tips
December 31, 2017
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

**Michigan vs. South Carolina**

Outback Bowl History

-- The Michigan Wolverines (8-4 straight up, 5-6-1 against the spread) of the Big Ten Conference meet the South Carolina Gamecocks (8-4 straight up, 6-4-2 against the spread) of the Southeastern Conference in a Power 5 matchup at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla. for the Outback Bowl. While this isn't a playoff game, or even a premier bowl like the Orange or Cotton, let's face it...there is a lot at 'steak'. Get it? OK. It's been a long bowl season writing these columns. Let's move on - ha.

-- The Big Ten is a perfect 7-0 SU/6-1 ATS, so the Wolverines are looking to cap off the bowl season in style for their conference. Michigan fired out to a 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS start this season, including a neutral-site win over Florida on Sept. 2, and a 28-10 victory at Purdue on Sept. 23. Their first loss came on Oct. 7 at home against rival Michigan State, but they rebounded the next week with an overtime win at Indiana. After a beatdown from Penn State in Happy Valley on Oct. 21, the Wolverines rattled off three straight victories. However, they stubbed their toe at Wisconsin and at home against Ohio State to close out their season.

-- Michigan struggled on offense, particularly in the passing game, finishing 100th in total yards per game (354.9) and 111th in rushing yards per outing (168.6). When they were successful on offense it was in the run game, going for 186.3 yards per game to check in 39th. They averaged just 25.8 points per game to finish 84th in the country. Defense was the specialty of the Wolverines, allowing just 268.6 yards per game to rank third in the nation, and they were first in the country against the pass, allowing just 142.7 yards per contest. They weren't too shabby against the run, either, allowing just 125.9 yards per game to rank 20th. They also gave up just 18.2 points per game to finish 12th in the nation.

-- Wilton Speight is out with fractured vertebrae, so Brandon Peters will make the start under center. He was battling concussion, but he has been cleared to go. He completed 57.8 percent of his pass attempts to finish with 486 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions in his brief work this season. Karan Higdon led the charge with 929 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns, while averaging 6.3 yards per carry. Chris Evans was a nice change of pace back, posting 661 yards and six scores, while Ty Isaac was good for 548 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 6.2 yards per attempt. The team's leading receiver was Grant Perry with 25 grabs for 307 yards and a touchdown. That's a far cry from the days of Anthony Carter, Braylon Edwards or Desmond Howard. It's even a far cry from the halcyon days of Devin Funchess or Amara Darboh.

-- South Carolina opened the season with an impressive 35-28 win in Charlotte in a neutral-site contest, and they followed that up with a win against another bowl team, Missouri, by a 31-13 score. They lost two of three games, falling to bowl teams Kentucky and Texas A&M, but rebounded with five wins in their final seven appearances with only losses to playoff teams Georgia and Clemson. They enter the game having failed to cover in each of the past two while the 'under' connected in each outing.

-- Like Michigan, South Carolina struggled on offense. The Gamecocks ranked 108th in the nation with 341.1 total yards per game. They also posted 212.9 passing yards per game to rank 80th, while rushing for 128.2 yards per outing to check in 128th in the nation. They were also 100th in the country with 24.1 points per game. The field-goal unit was a disaster, too, as they made just 52.0 percent of their kicks to rank 123rd in the country. On defense, the Cocks were rather middling. They allowed 374.6 total yards per game to rank 51st, they allowed 227.9 yards per game through the air to finish 70th and they were 43rd in the country against the run, yielding 146.7 yards per outing. Somehow they had a bend-don't-break defense, yielding just 20.8 points per game to rank 25th in the land.

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-- QB Jake Bentley was adequate at times in the pass game, completing 62.4 percent of his pass attempts with 2,555 yards, 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while rushing for six scores. A.J. Turner led the way on the ground with 517 yards and three scores, averaging 5.6 yards per attempt. Ty'Son Williams averaged 5.0 yards per run, posting 460 yards and a touchdown. WR Bryan Edwards led the way with 705 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 11.9 yards per catch. Hayden Hurst was also fairly effective in the pass game, posting 12.6 yards per catch with 518 yards and a pair of scores. Freshmen WR Shi Smith and OrTre Smith each made splashes in their initial campaign and look to use the bowl game to springboard into 2018.

-- The Wolverines have posted a 2-6-1 ATS mark over the past nine games against teams with a winning record, while going 1-4 ATS in their past five non-conference tilts. They're also 1-8 ATS over the past nine following a cover in their previous outing.

-- The 'over' is 23-9-1 in the past 33 games for Michigan, and 6-0 in their past six games against SEC opponents. The over is also 10-2 in their past 12 neutral-site games, and 8-2 across their past 10 bowl appearances.

-- South Carolina is a perfect 5-0 ATS in their past five neutral-site games, and 4-1 ATS in their past five bowl appearances. However, they're just 2-6 ATS in the past eight outside of the conference.

-- The 'under' is 8-3 in the past 11 games for the Gamecocks, and 35-17 in the past 52 games against teams with a winning overall mark.

-- Michigan has the most wins all-time in college football history (943), but they're just 21-24 all-time in bowl games. They lost the Orange Bowl last season by a 33-32 score, and they're just 3-8 SU over the past 11 bowl appearances. They faced South Carolina in the Outback Bowl on Jan. 1, 2013, falling 33-28. They're 3-2 all-time in the Hall of Fame Bowl/Outback Bowl in Tampa.

-- South Carolina fell last season in overtime at the Birmingham Bowl, losing 46-39 to South Florida. However, they're 4-1 over their past five bowl appearances, including the 2013 win over Michigan. They're 3-2 SU all-time at the Hall of Fame Bowl/Outback Bowl.

-- Kickoff is slated for 12:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

**UCF vs. Auburn**

Peach Bowl History

-- In the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga. it will be the UCF Knights (12-0 straight-up, 7-4-1 against the spread) looking to prove they belong among the big boys against the Auburn Tigers (10-3 straight up, 6-5-1 against the spread) from the Southeastern Conference.

-- UCF ran the table this season, including wins against Memphis (twice), Navy, Southern Methodist, Temple and South Florida, all bowl teams. The Knights started out 5-0 ATS over their first five games, but once Vegas made adjustments to their success, the lines went higher and they managed to go just 2-4-1 ATS in their final seven outings. The 'over' has connected in each of their final four outings, including the AAC Championship Game on Dec. 2 against Memphis.

-- UCF enters this game with the No. 1 scoring offense in the nation, posting 49.4 points per game. They also ranked fourth in the country with 540.9 yards per game, seventh in the nation in passing yards (339.2) and 32nd in the run game (201.7). They also had a decent field-goal kicking unit, converting 78.6 percent of their field-goal attempts to rank 44th in the country. Defense is where UCF had trouble, ranking 94th in the nation with 428.5 total yards per game allowed, 111th in passing yards allowed (262.8), 64th in rushing yards allowed (165.7) and 25.2 points per game allowed to rank 52nd.

-- QB McKenzie Milton completed 69.2 percent of his pass attempts while rolling up 3,795 yards, 35 touchdowns and nine interceptions, and he rushed for 497 yards and seven scores. When Milton wasn't running it was Adrian Killins Jr., who racked up 6.7 yards per attempt to lead the team with 762 yards and 10 touchdowns. Taj McGowan punched in eight rushing touchdowns to rank second on the team. WR Tre'Quan Smith was good for a team-high 1,082 yards and 13 touchdowns, while WR Dredrick Snelson managed 42 grabs, 656 yards and seven touchdowns. TE Jordan Akins checked in with 30 receptions for 459 yards and four scores.

-- Auburn ranked 27th in the nation in total yards per game, posting 454.0 yards per contest. They were rather average in the pass game, posting 225.8 yards per game to check in 69th in the country, but they posted 228.2 yards per game on the ground to finish 21st. Their 34.4 points per game were good for 25th in the country. On defense the Tigers ranked 13th, yielding 317.3 yards per game overall. They were 19th against the pass, giving up just 182.8 yards per contest. They were 30th against the run (134.5), while allowing just 17.3 points per game to rank ninth in the country.

-- The big question for Auburn is the health of RB Kerryon Johnson (shoulder). He sounds like he will be back toi 100 percent, but you're never quite sure with the tight-lipped news you receive from college teams, unlike the more forthcoming reports in the pros. Johnson led the team with 1,320 yards and 17 touchdowns, while adding two more scores through the air. Former Baylor QB Jarrett Stidham completed 66.7 percent of his pass attempts for 2,827 yards, 17 touchdowns and just four interceptions whille adding four rushing scores. RB Kamryn Pettway was a nice change of pace back, going for 305 yards and six touchdowns.

-- WR Ryan Davis led the way with 76 catches for 768 yards and five touchdowns, while WR Darius Slayton was good for 23.9 yards per catch while totaling 574 yards and five touchdowns. WR Will Hastings finished with 408 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 20.4 yards per catch. The Tigers have a handful of playmakers and plenty of depth in the receiving game.

-- The Knights have posted a 1-3-1 ATS mark over their past five games against a team with a winning record while going 2-5 ATS over their past seven matchups against SEC foes. The 'over' is 4-0 in their past four games overall and 6-0 in their past six eight games on a grass surface. The 'under' is 7-0-1 in their past eight against SEC opponents, though.

-- The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their past five neutral-site affairs, while going 0-4-1 ATS in their past five non-conference tilts. The 'under' is the trend for Auburn, going 3-0-1 in their past four bowl games, 4-0-2 in their past six neutral-site games and 14-5-1 across the past 20 against teams with a winning overall record. The 'under' is also 6-0 across the past six non-conference battles.

-- UCF doesn't have an extensive bowl history, and they're just 3-5 SU in their eight previous appearances. Scott Frost, who is leaving for the Nebraska job, will coach his team in his second-ever bowl game. They lost 31-13 to Arkansas State in the Cure Bowl in Orlando last season, and they haven't won since Jan. 1, 2014 in the Fiesta Bowl against Baylor. They're 1-1 SU in two previous bowl appearances against SEC foes in a bowl game.

-- Auburn is 23-16-2 in 41 total bowls. They fell to Oklahoma last season in the Sugar Bowl, 35-19, and they're 1-3 SU over their past four bowl outings. The last time they appeared in the Chick-Fil-A/Peach Bowl, they topped Virginia 43-24 on Dec. 31, 2011, and they're 4-1 SU all-time in the Peach Bowl.

-- Kickoff is slated for 12:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Notre Dame vs. Louisiana State**

Citrus Bowl History

-- The Citrus Bowl takes place at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla., or the Citrus Bowl. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-3-0 straight up, 7-5-0 against the spread) will meet the Louisiana State Tigers (9-3-0 straight up, 7-4-1 against the spread).

-- Notre Dame opened the season wtih a 49-16 win against Temple in their opener, before being tripped up 20-19 against Georgia in South Bend on Sept. 9. The Fighting Irish also racked up wins against bowl teams Boston College, Michigan State, Southern California, North Carolina State, Wake Forest and Navy this season. In their last visit to the state of Florida they Fighting Irish were annihilated by a 41-8 score in Miami on Nov. 11.

-- Notre Dame wasn't terribly balanced this season, but they were effective on offense. The Irish averaged 454.9 total yards per game, ranking 25th in the nation, while checking in seventh in the nation with 279.1 yards per game on the ground. They were 21st in the country with 35.3 points per game, but they ranked 105th in the country with just 175.8 yards per outing. On defense, they were 44th in total yards allowed (366.7), 51st in passing yards allowed (213.5), 49th against the rush (153.2) and 31st in scoring defense (21.8 PPG).

-- QB Brandon Wimbush completed just 49.8 percent of his passes for 1,818 yards, 16 touchdowns and six interceptions while running for 766 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. When Wimbush wasn't running the ball it was Josh Adams toting the mail. He posted 1,386 yards with nine touchdowns, averaging 7.3 yards per game on the ground. Deon McIntosh and Dexter Williams also combined for nine more rushing touchdowns, as the Irish have plenty of bodies capable of doing big things on the ground. In the receiving game, Equanimeous St. Brown led the way with 468 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 15.1 yards per grab. WR Chase Claypool, by way of Abbottsford, British Columbia, was second on the team with 402 yards and a pair of scores.

-- LSU wasn't nearly as formidable as past seasons, but they were still pretty dangerous. They were 3-1 SU heading into what should have been a tune-up game on Sept. 30 against Troy. They lost 24-21, and that game really seemed to serve as a wake-up call for the Bayou Bengals. They rattled off wins over Florida, Auburn and Ole Miss, before falling 24-10 at Alabama on Nov. 4. They capped off the season with victories against Arkansas, Tennessee and Texas A&M to get to nine victories.

-- The Tigers ranked 54th in the country in total yards (412.1), 86th overall in passing yards per game (201.3), 28th in the land in rushing yards (210.8) and 71st in points scored per game with 28.1 PPG. On defense, the Tigers yielded just 311.7 yards per game to rank 11th, while finishing 20th against the pass (185.2), 21st against the rush (126.4) and 14th in scoring defense with 18.8 PPG allowed. He also caught 15 balls for 100 yards. RB Darrel Williams was good for 776 yards and nine touchdowns, filling in for Guice when he needed a breather or was injured.

-- On offense, QB Danny Etling showed some improvement with 60.3 percent of his pass completed, throwing for 2,234 yards, 14 touchdowns and just two interceptions while running for two more scores. RB Derrius Guice wasn't quite Leonard Fournette, but he was pretty damn good. He rolled for 1,153 yards on 5.3 yards per carry, finding the end zone 11 times. WR D.J. Chark topped the charts with 811 receiving yards and three touchdowns, averaging 23.2 yards per reception. Williams was second on the team with 327 receiving yards out of the backfield. Foster Moreau also finished with three touchdown receptions.

-- The Fighting Irish have failed to cover in each of their past four games overall, while going 0-4 ATS in their past four against teams with a winning overall mark. They also 0-4 ATS in their past four non-conference games, while going 1-4 ATS in their past five bowl outings.

-- The Tigers have posted a 6-0 ATS mark across their past six outings while going 5-0 ATS over their past five following a straight-up win.

-- The 'under' is 4-1 in the past five overall for the Irish, while going 4-1 in their past five non-conference games. They're also 4-1 in their past five against teams with a winning overall record. The 'over' is 5-2 in their past seven bowl appearances, however.

-- The 'under' is 19-8-2 in their past 29 games overall, 5-2-1 in their past eight non-conference games and 13-6-1 across the past 20 against teams with a winning overall mark.

-- The Irish have posted a 17-18 record in 35 total bowl games. They fell 44-28 to Ohio State in their last appearance Jan. 1, 2016 in the Fiesta Bowl. They're just 4-12 SU over their past 16 appearances in a bowl. This will be their first time playing in the Citrus Bowl.

-- The Tigers appeared in the Citrus Bowl on Dec. 31, 2016, pounding Louisville by a 29-9 score. They 1-3 SU all-time in the Capital One Bowl/Citrus Bowl, with a win in Orlando in the Tangerine Bowl in 1979.

-- Notre Dame and LSU met in the Music City Bowl on Dec. 30, 2014, with the Irish coming out on top 31-28. LSU won 41-14 in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 3, 2007, and 27-9 in the Independence Bowl on Dec. 28, 1997.

-- Kickoff is slated for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC.