Mountain West Betting Preview
By Steve Merril
Covers.com
Air Force Falcons (2014: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1600
Season win total: 6
Why bet the Falcons: Air Force is a team that always gives their all, and for that reason alone, they can never be counted out of a game. The Falcons return 11 starters from their 10-win team in 2014, and that is a decent amount of experience for a service academy team. Air Force may prove to be a tough out once again in 2015.
Why not bet the Falcons: They made a big jump last season, going from 2 wins in 2013 to 10 wins in 2014. The biggest improvement came on defense where they held opponents to just 24.2 points per game after allowing 40 points per game the season before. Teams that fit that profile tend to regress the following season, so it’s highly unlikely the Falcons will repeat last season’s success.
Season win total pick: Over 6
Boise State Broncos (2014: 12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: -260
Season win total: 10
Why bet the Broncos: Boise State has a strong team every year, and 2015 will be no different. The Broncos have the best offensive and defensive lines in the conference by a wide margin, so they will dominate the line of scrimmage in their games. With 17 returning starters, Boise State has a formidable team once again in 2015.
Why not bet the Broncos: Despite the abundance of talent still on hand, Boise State has to replace quarterback Grant Hedrick and running back Jay Ajayi on offense. The Broncos also have to replace exceptional place kicker Dan Goodale who led a very good special teams unit. Boise State is a known commodity, so there’s not much value left on the Broncos.
Season win total pick: Under 10
Colorado State Rams (2014: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +2300
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Rams: Colorado State has gone 18-9 over the last two years, so they’ve been a much better team in recent seasons. The Rams return 15 starters, so there’s plenty of playing experience coming back. Colorado State will certainly be underdogs against the top teams in the conference, so the value will remain in 2015 despite winning 18 games over the last two seasons.
Why not bet the Rams: The Rams have a lot to replace, beginning with head coach Jim McElwain. Mike Bobo takes over, and he’ll have to replace a top quarterback, running back, and their top two defensive players. Colorado State’s conference schedule is tough, especially since they finish the season by playing three of their last four games on the road.
Season win total pick: Under 7
New Mexico Lobos (2014: 4-8 SU, 6-5-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +10000
Season win total: 4
Why bet the Lobos: Head coach Bob Davie returns for his fourth season at New Mexico, and he has 14 returning starters to work with. The Lobos have a terrific rushing attack that has averaged over 300 yards per game in all three seasons under Davie. New Mexico’s ability to run the ball and control the clock keeps them competitive in the majority of their games.
Why not bet the Lobos: New Mexico hasn’t had a winning season since 2007, and a major reason for that has been the lack of a defense. The Lobos’ defense has allowed and average of 36.3 points and 493.3 yards per game over the last three years. Last year, New Mexico was out-gained by an average of 148 yards per game in conference play alone.
Season win total pick: Over 4
Utah State Aggies (2014: 10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1000
Season win total: 8
Why bet the Aggies: Utah State had a revolving door at quarterback in 2014, and they still won 10 games. The Aggies will return talented Chuckie Keeton under center this year after his missed the final 10 games with injury. Keeton is dynamic, and he’ll lead an offense that returns nine starters. Utah State’s defense is also terrific as they’ve held opponents to just an average of 17.4 points per game over the last three seasons.
Why not bet the Aggies: The team has a lot of promise, but keep in mind their best player is coming back from multiple injuries. It’s no given that Keeton will be healthy, and if his injuries reoccur, the Aggies could regress sharply. Utah State is a popular sleeper team in the MWC this season, so they will be playing with the pressure of high expectations.
Season win total pick: Under 8
Wyoming Cowboys (2014: 4-8 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +8000
Season win total: 5
Why bet the Cowboys: Wyoming will play their second season under head coach Craig Bohl who was very successful at North Dakota State (104-32). The Cowboys were transitioning new schemes on both sides of the ball last season, so year two should see a nice improvement, especially on offense. Wyoming will have a good offensive line and a good running game, so they’ll be a competitive team in 2015.
Why not bet the Cowboys: The biggest concern coming into 2015 for Wyoming is their inexperience. The Cowboys only return 9 starters which is the fewest in the Mountain West conference. The schedule is weak early on, but Wyoming will have to face Boise State and Utah State in back-to-back weeks on the road to close out the month of October.
Season win total pick: Over 5
Fresno State Bulldogs (2014: 6-8 SU, 7-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +3300
Season win total: 4
Why bet the Bulldogs: Head coach Tim DeRuyter has done a fantastic job in his three years at Fresno State. The Bulldogs are 20-6 in conference play under DeRuyter, so they have plenty of confidence coming into the 2015 season. Fresno State is off an overall disappointing 6-8 season, so there’s plenty of motivation for a winning season in 2015.
Why not bet the Bulldogs: The Bulldogs only return 11 starters, and they play a brutal non-conference schedule this season. Fresno State will play at Mississippi and at BYU while hosting Utah. Those three games are tough, especially for a team that regressed on both sides of the ball in 2014. There’s a lot of unknowns for the Bulldogs coming into this season, so taking a wait and see approach may be the best thing to do early on.
Season win total pick: Over 4
Hawaii Warriors (2014: 4-9 SU, 5-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +6600
Season win total: 6
Why bet the Warriors: Hawaii suffered through another miserable 4-9 season in head coach Norm Chow’s third year on the job. Expectations are extremely low in Honolulu, so the Warriors may be able to surprise some teams this year. Hawaii does return 14 starters, so there are some positives coming into 2015.
Why not bet the Warriors: The program has been in steady decline over the last four seasons, and the talent has dropped off significantly. Losing teams are hard to back, especially when they are just 8-29 under their current head coach. The schedule is brutal with trips to Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Boise State. It will be more of the same for Hawaii in 2015.
Season win total pick: Under 6
Nevada Wolf Pack (2014: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +3500
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Wolf Pack: Nevada made a nice improvement in 2014 in their second season under head coach Brian Polian. The Wolf Pack won 7 games last season, and their record could have been even better as three of their losses came by exactly 7 points each. The offense and defense improved on both sides of the ball, so another step forward will get Nevada into another bowl game in 2015.
Why not bet the Wolf Pack: The team returns only 11 starters after having 17 starters back for last season. The Wolf Pack lost senior quarterback Cody Fajardo to graduation, and his production is of utmost importance to replace. Nevada’s defense will have the spotlight on them, but after losing some key pieces, it’s a stretch to think they can match last year’s numbers when they allowed a respectable 27.2 points per game.
Season win total pick: Under 7
San Diego State Aztecs (2014: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +700
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Aztecs: San Diego State has had a winning record in five consecutive years, and with 14 returning starters, 2015 should be another winning campaign. The Aztecs play a favorable schedule this season, and their defense will be a stout unit once again. They only allowed 19.8 points per game in 2014.
Why not bet the Aztecs: The Aztecs regressed on offense last season, so they’ll need to bounce back strong if they want to contend for a conference title in 2015. San Diego State also needs significant improvement away from home where they went just 1-5 last season.
Season win total pick: Over 7
San Jose State Spartans (2014: 3-9 SU, 3-9 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +5500
Season win total: 4
Why bet the Spartans: San Jose State will be in their third season under head coach Ron Caragher, and significant improvement is quite possible. The Spartans return 16 starters, including ten on offense. San Jose State will be underdogs in the majority of their games this season, but don’t sell the Spartans short in 2015.
Why not bet the Spartans: Even though San Jose State returns ten offensive starters, the unit was terrible last season; they only averaged 19.3 points per game in 2014. The Spartans also play a very tough schedule, including games at Oregon State and at Auburn out of conference.
Season win total pick: Over 4
UNLV Rebels (2014: 2-11 SU, 5-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +35000
Season win total: 2
Why bet the Rebels: UNLV is projected be one of the worst teams in college football this season. And that means the Rebels will likely be big underdogs in just about every one of their games this season. With expectations extremely low in Las Vegas, playing the Rebels will take courage, and the abundance of points will be plentiful.
Why not bet the Rebels: As alluded to above, UNLV will be a terrible team. The Rebels hired a local high school coach that brings a lot of hope, but he has no collegiate coaching experience. There’s a major rebuilding project ahead for the UNLV program, and in its current situation, the Rebels are a team to avoid at all costs.
Season win total pick: Under 2