MWC Outlook - Mountain
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com
Last year's straight-up, against the spread, and over/under results are included for each team, presented in predicted order of finish...
The end of an era, perhaps? Fans at Boise State (2015 SU 9-4; ATS 6-7) were acting so after the Broncos surrendered the Mountain West crown last season and lost multiple times on their home blue carpet for the first time since 1998. The rabid support base was caught off-guard much as the “remain” crowd in the UK for the recent Brexit vote. How could it happen?
Some are suggesting the fall from the perch was inevitable after HC Chris Petersen left following the 2013 season for Washington, though we believe that is too simple of an explanation. Remember, Petersen’s last team finished an underwhelming 8-5, so it is not as if the ground has suddenly given way beneath the blue carpet for successor Bryan Harsin, whose two-year SU record at Boise is a solid 21-6.
If any Broncos fans are looking for positive bounce-back analogies, we remind them that the NHL Edmonton Oilers won their last Stanley Cup two years after the departure of Wayne Gretzky. (You’ve heard of him, right...Paulina’s dad.)
So, lots of regional observers are anticipating a quick recovery by the 2016 Broncos, whose flagship status means much to the Mountain West. Though Boise will be traveling only once outside its region (for an opener at UL-Lafayette on September 3), most onlookers in the Rockies believe the Broncos are still the league’s best chance to make an impression on the national scene.
Harsin, who earlier in his career had served as Petersen’s o.c., has not exactly been the captain of the Titanic. Last year’s Boise scored a whopping 39.1 ppg and gained over 500 ypg, hardly dropping off of the map. The Broncos also closed their season with a 55-7 dismantling of a representative Northern Illinois side in the Poinsettia Bowl, allowing the Huskies only 33 total yards in the process. So, if nothing else, Boise hit the offseason with a spring in its step.
Speaking of spring, the seasonal variety, it was adjustment time again as the Broncos worked in their fifth different offensive coordinator in six seasons after Eliah Drinkwitz took a similar post at NC State. (Mike Sanford left the previous year for Notre Dame.) For 2016, Zak Hill has been imported from Eastern Washington, where he oversaw a high-powered spread in recent years, to be joined by Scott Huff, promoted from OL coach, in a joint o.c. effort, though Harsin will put on his old play-calling hat and assume those duties. Meanwhile, former LB coach Andy Avalos has been promoted to defensive coordinator after Marcel Yates was lured away by Rich Rodriguez at Arizona.
Prospects are bullish for a strike force that returns eight starters including soph QB Brett Rypien, Mark’s nephew, who passed for 3353 yards and 20 TDs as a true frosh last fall. That was good enough to earn Rypien All-MW honors, though Harsin will want to make sure Rypien stays healthy with no experienced cover behind him. Still, the ride was not all smooth last fall for Rypien, who had a few erratic efforts that contributed to late-season losses vs. New Mexico and Air Force, and his arm seemed to tire as the season progressed, as the deep ball threat disappeared in November. Giving Rypien the benefit of the doubt, he was expected to redshirt last season before starter Ryan Finley broke an ankle in mid-September; Rypien’s first start came in the fourth game, September 25 at Virginia. If he can stay healthy, and with more experience avoids the "tired arm" syndrome, Rypien should be firing all of the way into a higher-profile bowl game this fall.
Experienced playmakers still dot the offense, with RB Jeremy McNichols worth 1317 yards rushing, 460 yards receiving, and 26 TDs a year ago to qualify as one of the nation’s top all-purpose threats. Senior wideout Thomas Sperbeck, the Fiesta Bowl MVP two years ago, was good for 88 receptions a year ago, while fellow WR Chaz Anderson (42 catches LY) and TE Jake Roh (33 receptions 2016) are other proven contributors. Frosh likely provide skill-position depth (watch WR Bubby Ogbehor out of Frisco, TX), while four starters are back along the OL. Last year’s PK (Tyler Rausa, who was 25-30 on FG tries LY) and P (Sean Wale) both return.
New d.c. Avalos has a bit more work to do with a stop unit that lost seven starters and, despite ranking 12th nationally, was overrun by a couple of Mountain Division option teams (New Mexico and Air Force) that both won on the blue carpet last November. The line is the area of utmost concern with all new starters up front and little experience in the fold aside from sr. DT Sam McCaskill, one of last year’s rotation pieces. Newcomers will need to play important roles. The strength of the platoon is likely at the LB spots where 2015 leading tackler Ben Warren and third-leading tackler Tanner Vallejo return as starters. Three seniors are slated to start in the secondary, including CB Jonathan Maxey & S Chanceller James, but young talent needs to provide depth.
Already, there is a buzz in Boise about the September 10 visit of Mike Leach’s Washington State and potential Heisman candidate QB Luke Falk, but if the Broncos survive that test they likely enter conference play in the national rankings. Boise has a score to settle vs. three Mountain foes (New Mexico, Air Force, and Utah State, on the road to face the Lobos and Falcons, the latter having beaten Harsin the past two seasons) that won vs. the Broncos a year ago, and worth noting that Boise misses heavy West favorite San Diego State. At least until a possible showdown in the conference title game, which, in a perfect world for the MW, would see the winner qualify for a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl, as the Broncos achieved in 2014 when invited to the Fiesta (and beating Arizona).
Spread-wise, it has been a while since Boise was dominant on the blue carpet. Ongoing heavy pointspread premiums resulted in only a 2-4 performance vs. the line at home last season (one of those W vs. Big Sky Idaho State) and an 11-21 mark dating to late 2010 and the final stages of the Petersen era. The Broncos, however, continue to excel as road chalk, now 31-14 in that role since 2008 (4-2 a year ago).
The last reconstruction job as successful as the one undertaken by HC Bob Davie at New Mexico (2015 SU 7-6; ATS 7-6)? Perhaps it was Ulysses S. Grant trying to mend the Union after the Civil War. In football terms, Davie has done a near-comparable job in Albuquerque after inheriting a carcass of a program from the failed Mike Locksley regime in 2012.
To refresh memories, Locksley was the ill-fated hire made by New Mexico after forcing out alum and longtime HC Rocky Long following the 2008 season. Locksley proceeded to author the definitive deconstruct of a program that would win a mere one game each of the next three seasons, the latter in 2011 with interim CH George Barlow in charge for the lone W (vs. UNLV, by the way) following Locksley’s ouster early in the campaign. Enter Davie, the former Notre Dame mentor who left a cushy gig at ESPN and a pleasant home in Scottsdale to take his first sideline job in over a decade. So desperate was his coaching itch that he took on the challenge of resurrecting maybe the worst program in the country upon his hiring.
That was four years ago, and Davie began to mix and match with a threadbare roster of only 51 remaining players on scholarship, almost none from the first Locksley recruiting class three years earlier. Off of the bat, Davie schemed effectively, leaning upon a handful of holdover fifth-year seniors originally recruited by Long for leadership, and reckoning the an option-based run offense out of the Pistol was his best chance to slow down the games and run the clock and keep his undermanned defense off of the field. The Lobos didn’t win consistently right away, but they weren’t Locksley-bad, either, as the program slowly began to take on the look of a real college football entry.
Which brings us to last year, and what would be the cherry on top of the cake for Davie’s efforts, a surprise 7-5 regular-season record and qualification for the hometown New Mexico Bowl against Arizona. Never mind that the Lobos lost that one in a wild 45-37 shootout; Davie’s accomplishment at getting New Mexico to the postseason rates as one of the top coaching jobs we recall in the past decade. The Lobos were even good enough to notch one of the biggest pointspread upsets in modern history when winning win at Boise State as a 30 1/2-point underdog in mid-November. To prove that was no fluke, New Mexico would end its regular season with a decisive home win over Mountain Division champion Air Force.
With expectations now enhanced in Lobo-land for the first time in almost a decade, Davie seems well-positioned for an encore and another bowl bid. We’ll see how New Mexico embraces the new target on its back after flying under the radar to this point in the Davie era.
Not willing to rest on his laurels, Davie has been altering the recipe a bit lately, especially with an offense that might have lost its element of surprise out of the Pistol. Though the Lobos still ranked a very respectable 9th nationally in rushing, their 252 ypg last fall was more than 50 yards beneath the lowest total in Davie’s first three seasons. Davie has since juggled assignments for most of his offensive staff, though Bob DeBessie (now tutoring the WRs instead of QBs) retains the coordinator role.
The slow changes began last season when the Lobos would demonstrate a bit more balance by attempting more than 50 passes above any previous Davie UNM entry. Part of that was to do with the presence of former juco and one-time Washington State QB Austin Apodaca, the designated “passer” threat of a two-man platoon alongside Lamar Jordan, who took more snaps and actually passed for more yards. Though Jordan remains the “run” QB after rushing for 807 yards a year ago. Both return to what would appear to be a similar arrangement for the fall, with Apodaca likely utilized again as an effective change-of-pace option.
The main question for the offense likely involves breaking in three new starters along the OL. Teriyon Gipson remains a coast-to-coast threat at RB, and Davie has had no shortage of quick-hitting backs in recent years. The top two receivers, led by sr. WR Dameon Gamblin (35 catches LY), also return. As does one-time QB Cole Gautsche, hampered by injuries throughout his career but a mega-athlete and now a 260-lb. moose ready for work at TE after getting healthy in a redshirt season a year ago. Davie will also be looking for a new kick-return threat after the graduated Carlos Wiggins brought five back for scores in his career.
While the Lobo offensive numbers in 2015 still bore a resemblance to previous Davie editions, it was upgrades along the “D” that allowed New Mexico to go “bowling” for the first time since 2007.The improvements need to be viewed in context; the Lobos were still susceptible to dramatic collapses, as evident in the bowl loss to Arizona. But those came less frequently than previous years when the Lobos routinely ranked in triple-digits in all relevant stat categories. Last year, it was merely high double-digits all of the way, and the 28.4 ppg allowed was by far the best of any UNM defense back to the Rocky Long era. The Lobos allowed 81 ypg fewer than in 2014 and had 15 more takeaways than in 2013, the year before d.c Kevin Cosgrove arrived. UNM also recorded 30 sacks a year ago, another Davie-era best, and excelled in the red zone last season, allowing only 34 scores in 49 opponent forays, which ranked 4th-best in the nation.
The good news is that nine starters return from 2015, including star MLB Dakota Cox, the heart-and-soul of the platoon and one of the MW’s best who led the Lobos with 97 tackles a year ago. In fact, the entire starting front six in UNM’s 3-3-5 returns, including most of the rotation pieces along a DL anchored by sr. DE Nik D’Avanzo. Cox, with fellow srs. Kimmie Carson and Donnie White, might make up the top LB corps in the MW. There are some depth concerns in the secondary, partly due to the tragic death of S Markel Byrd in a car accident just a few days after the bowl loss to Arizona, though FS Daniel Henry and nickel back Lee Crosby, the most productive players on the back end, return for their senior seasons. As indeed are ten of the eleven projected starters, making the Lobo “D” one of the most experienced in the nation.
The schedule is favorable, with an odd trip to rebuilding Rutgers probably the toughest non-conference challenge. The game vs. Mountain Division foe Air Force has been moved from Colorado Springs to the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, and Boise State (against which Davie's teams are 4-0 vs. the line) visits University Stadium on October 8. Absent from the slate is heavy West favorite San Diego State.
Spread-wise, notable in recent years has been Davie’s success vs. the line on the road, where the Lobos are 11-5 vs. the spread their last 16 tries. Within the Mountain Division, Davie’s team has covered four straight not only vs. Boise State, but Air Force as well, though it has dropped four straight vs. Colorado State.
Two years ago, we weren’t sure how much longer we would be talking about HC Troy Calhoun at Air Force (2015 SU 8-6; ATS 8-5). The Falcs had been losing altitude for a while and were off of a brutal 2-10 collapse in 2013 that was the program’s worst-ever mark, which included some very lean years in the 1970s. Moreover, long-serving AD Hans Mueh, the man who hired the former fly-boy Calhoun to replace his mentor, Fisher DeBerry, for the 2007 season, was ready to retire from his post. The gears seemed to be in motion for a change unless Calhoun could get things turned around and quickly.
Fast-forward two years and Calhoun is back again on firm footing after 18 wins, a pair of bowl appearances, and a Mountain Division crown, causing Gregg Popovich and other alums to chuckle and wonder what all the fuss was about in the first place. Calhoun has now qualified for the postseason in seven of eight campaigns at the Force, something even the legendary DeBerry, now in the Atlanta College Football HOF, could not accomplish with the Falcs (DeBerry never went to more than six bowls during any of his eight-year spans).
In retrospect, 2013 was the aberration, a season wrecked by a cascade of injuries that especially decimated the QB position.With a bit better injury luck, Air Force has returned to its normal perch in the MW under Calhoun in the two seasons since.
(We’re glad Calhoun is still in the fold, if for no other reason than being annually amused by the Air Force coach at the summer Mountain West Media Days, where Calhoun’s peculiar demeanor and manner more resembles that of a CIA spook than the usual coaching stereotypes.)
As Air Force’s option-based offense has routinely reloaded over the years, there is not much worry at the Academy at the thought of the strike force replacing seven starters, including almost the entirety of last year’s starting OL, for this fall. There is near-giddiness, however, at the thought of nine starters back and experience all across the field for a defense that was one of the best in the Calhoun era and ranked in the top quartile nationally of several key stat categories.
The key a year ago for d.c. Steve Russ was the ability to bring pressure from all angles in the hopes of disrupting opposing QBs who would be less likely to exploit the Falcs’ athletic mismatches on the edge. The Force’s 37 sacks confirmed the Russ tactics and would rank a very respectable 23rd in the nation and key the ascent to the Mountain half crown.
Even with all of the returnees, there is some concern about filling the role of graduated Alex Hansen, a pass-rush beast considered by Calhoun as the best DE he has ever coached. (That sort of praise is so out of character for the normally-calculating Calhoun that we have to believe him.) But still in the fold is perhaps the best defensive playmaker in the MW, all-name SS Weston Steelhammer, a rare combo of aggressiveness against the run coupled with ball-hawk tendencies, partly explaining his 11 career interceptions. Steelhammer’s value to the Force “D” was never underlined more than after his ejection in the Armed Forces Bowl vs. Cal, when the Falc stop unit unraveled afterward. An all-senior 2ndary also features CB Roland Ladipo, an All-MW selection a year ago.
Last year, the offense would continue to post its usual top ten rushing stats (in 2015 it was 319 ypg, good for fourth nationally), though it had to revert to a more pure version of its option roots after QB Nate Romine, the rare Force QB who passes better than he runs, was lost to a knee injury in the second week vs. San Jose State. Senior relief pitcher Karson Roberts was well-versed in the nuances of the option but could not stretch a field with his arm as Romine, who returns for his senior season with perhaps the best Falc receiving threat since the long-ago days of Ernie Jennings, Jalen Robinette, a unique big-play target. Even with the limited Roberts at the controls, Robinette caught 26 passes for a staggering 24.7 yards per reception with 5 TDs in 2015 and should significantly improve upon those numbers if QB Romine can stay healthy this fall.
As usual, Calhoun’s offense will feature a deep collection of runners. As Robinette is a playmaker for the passing game, slashing TB Jacobi Owens (1092 YR in 2016) is for the infantry, gaining serious yards last season even after he was temporarily switched to the FB spot due to injuries. Junior Timothy McVey offers relief for Owens and perhaps a greater homerun threat after gaining a whopping 8.5 ypc last fall. Though injured for parts of last season, fullbacks Shayne Davern and D.J. Johnson are brutishly effective, as Air Force option protocols demand, when healthy. Junior PK Luke Strebel missed only 1 of his 11 FG tries a year ago.
As in every season, there are dual goals for the Force, winning the Commander-in-Chief Trophy as well as the Mountain West. The Falcs, who won the former as recently as 2014, get nemesis Navy at home on October 1 as the highlight of non-conference action. There is also no San Diego State from the West on the 2016 slate and no distractions of a trip to Hawaii (the Rainbow Warriors instead visit Falcon Stadium on October 22), though the Falcs rather enjoyed their time in paradise last Halloween when blasting UH, 58-7, given an escort out of Aloha Stadium by Hawaii Five-O. The Mountain title could come down to the regular-season finale at home on Thanksgiving weekend vs. Boise State, which has been outplayed and beaten by Calhoun each of the last two years.
Spread-wise, Calhoun has also rehabilitated the past two seasons after the downturns of 2012 & ‘13, when the Falcs were a combined 6-19 vs. the line; Air Force is 16-10-1 against the number since. Moreover, the Force has once again turned Falcon Stadium into a fortress, standing 9-2-1 vs. the line as host the past two seasons after slumping at Colorado Springs in previous years. Interestingly, the Falcs have been “over” 20-7 the past two years.
It has been an interesting few seasons for Utah State (2015 SU 6-7; ATS 5-8.). The Utags have not only switched leagues (WAC to Mountain West in 2013) but have also qualified for five straight bowls, which would have seemed a pipe dream in Logan not long ago, especially before HC Gary Andersen arrived in 2009 from a successful stint as d.c. at Utah. Andersen would thus revive the program before leaving for Wisconsin and turning over the reins to his o.c. Matt Wells, who has continued the uptick with three straight bowl visits.
(Andersen, however, continues to be indirectly impacting the program. Sources inform us that when Oregon State called Andersen, still at Wisconsin, after the 2014 season, and looking for a recommendation on Wells to become the new coach in Corvallis, Andersen would instead offer himself as an alternative to succeed Mike Riley, who had moved to Nebraska. Presto, Andersen was OSU’s new coach and Wells stayed at USU. But the Andersen/Beaver connection to Logan remains, as this fall’s projected OSU starting QB Darell Garretson is a transfer from...you guessed it, Utah State. Not to mention new OSU d.c. Kevin Clune, hired from...yep, Utah State.)
There are some signs, however, that the Utags might be slipping just a bit, as a late-season fade in 2015, including a bitter Idaho Potato Bowl loss to Akron, would drop the team to 6-7 and the first losing campaign since 2010. All of this after a midseason 52-26 rout of Boise State in Logan seemed to stamp the Utags as the team to beat in the Mountain half of the loop. Then, in the offseason, both coordinators, the aforementioned d.c. Kevin Clune (to Oregon State) and o.c. Josh Heupel (to Missouri...not Oregon State!) both moved. Thus, both the “O” and “D” will be looking at their third (and fourth, technically, with co-d.c.’s lined up) coordinators, respectively, in as many seasons this fall. Another familiar face, that of longtime and injury-susceptible QB Chuckie Keeton, has also left the Logan scene after his eligibility, which seemed to date to the Merlin Olsen era, was finally exhausted.
The Wells offense, which sagged to a 93rd national ranking a year ago, is now under the shared tutelage of co-coordinators Jevon Bouknight, promoted from passing game coordinator, and Luke Wells, who has been on the USU staff since brother Matt was promoted in 2013. The braintrust began to implement their new ideas in spring when emphasis was mostly centered upon establishing the run. “I want a 1000-yard back,” said HC Wells. “I want to be able to say we are a run-first football team.” Well, if the head coach insists, that’s what we suppose the Utags will get this fall.
Spring work showcased plenty of RB options, though for the time being it would appear as if powerful 220-lb. Devante Mays, a bit reminiscent of recent USU star RB Robert Turbin, is Wells’ likely 1000-yard man after nearly reaching that plateau last fall when gaining 966 YR. Along with jr. RB LaJuan Hunt, and returnee QB Kent Myers, the trio would combine for 1660 YR a year ago, numbers that figure to increase this fall.
The elusive jr. Myers, who took most of the snaps last season as Keeton was again sidelined with injuries, is a playmaker who has passed for 21 TDs (vs. just 6 picks) and nearly 2500 yards the past two seasons while filling in for Keeton or splitting snaps with now-departed Garretson in 2014. Myers and his arm were good enough to throw for 364 yards and 4 TDs vs. Air Force last November, so we wonder if the coaches should perhaps turn Myers loose rather than worry so much about establishing the run. The Utags must replace departed top receiver Hunter Sharp, who caught 71 passes last season, but sr. TE Wyatt Houston (28 catches in 2015) is one of the best in the MW, and plenty of candidates are in the queue at WR, including ex-RB Kennedy Williams and one of the stars of srping, RS frosh Gerold Bright. Four starters also return on the OL.
There are more concerns on a defense that only returns three starters from a Bizarro, “break-but-don’t-bend” stop unit in 2015 that ranked among the nation’s leaders in yards per play (only 4.9) but in the depths of red zone efficiency. Moreover, the hearts-and-souls of last year’s platoon were taken in the third round of the NFL Draft–LBs Nick Vigil (Bengals) and Kyle Fackrell (Packers) with back-to-back selections. Only one starter returns in the front seven, DE Ricky Ali’fua, while NG Travis Seefeldt returns to the mix after sitting out last season following traffic accident injuries. Only three of the 10 LBs who took snaps a year ago are back in the fold.
The most experienced position group on the defense is in the secondary, which returns starters at a corner (jr. Jalen Davis) and SS (sr. Devin Centers). Transfer Dallin Leavitt was a two-year starter at BYU and was running first-string at FS exiting spring. New co-coordinators Frank Maile and Kendrick Shaver are familiar with the Logan operation, each on staff in recent years and promoted in tandem to replace Clune.
We should know within the first month of the season if Wells has a contender on his hands, with the first two league games vs. Mountain rivals Air Force and revenge-minded Boise State (this time on the blue carpet). Non-league games at USC and BYU, plus questions on defense, may limit the upside to a minor bowl at best for Wells’ team. To do any better might require Wells turning QB Myers loose, but from the sound of things after spring work, we’re not holding our breath for that to happen.
Spread-wise, the Utags had been a dynamite underdog performer for several years prior to the ascent of Wells, recording a 19-5 spread mark in that role for Anderson before sagging to 5-8 as a “the short” the past three seasons. The Wells Utags have also been a decidedly “over” performer (27-13 the past three seasons).
We wonder what Mike Bobo was thinking after alma mater Georgia was looking for a coach following last season. Of course, Bobo had moved from o.c. on Mark Richt’s staff to the HC spot at Colorado State (2015 SU 7-6; ATS 6-6-1) prior to the 2015 campaign. Many in SEC country believed Bobo was likely to take a head coaching job, such as CSU, ostensibly to cut his teeth as the top dog, before returning to the SEC, maybe at his beloved Georgia.
Well, Bobo still might get back to the SEC, but probably not at Georgia for a while after the Bulldogs hired Alabama d.c. Kirby Smart instead. Bobo, who would have been an unlikely immediate successor to Richt had he stayed in Athens last season, thus has a bit more time to establish his credentials before perhaps returning home, maybe in the near future if Smart succeeds Nick Saban at Alabama. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
The homespun Bobo has some work to do with his own portfolio after proving a bit of an awkward fit in the Mountain West, and not just because there are no Waffle Houses or real Southern style BBQ anywhere near Fort Collins. Bobo effectively junked the Jim McElwain spread offense that produced big numbers and made QB Garrett Grayson an NFL draftee (Saints) before “Coach Mac” took the job at Florida. Bobo would instead introduce an older-style SEC offense to the Mountain West, complete with a traditional fullback (!) that has been an endangered species in the MW for years. The new look certainly did not serve to highlight star WR Rashard Higgins as did the McElwain offense; Higgins’ stats were considerably down from 2014 (receiving yards from 1750 to 1062; TDs from 17 to 6), as was his NFL Draft stock, sinking to the 5th round (Browns) after projecting as a possible 2nd-or-3rd-round pick prior.
The drop from 2014 that most alarmed Rams fans, however, was from 10 wins under McElwain to just seven a year ago. After a brief uptick when winning four straight to close the regular season and get bowl-eligible for a third straight year, the season would end up with a very unsatisfactory feel, too, after losing an All-MW Arizona Bowl vs. Nevada in front of a sparse gathering in Tucson.
We wouldn’t expect things to look appreciably different this fall with four starters back on the OL, plus a seasoned QB and a two-deep RB attack. The QB is jr. Nick Stevens, who flashed some nice upside in his starting debut, even if his stats paled in comparison to predecessor Grayson; Stevens would throw for 2679 yards and 21 TDs, though his pick total (12) was a bit high, part of an overall giveaway problem reflected in CSU’s poor -12 TO margin, ranking 117th nationally.
To keep Stevens on his toes, Bobo has imported Faton Bauta, a graduate transfer from Georgia who knows the Bobo offense from Athens, even though he took only a handful of snaps with the Bulldogs. True frosh Collin Hill is a recruit from South Carolina who would enroll early to participate in spring practice but is a likely redshirt candidate in the fall.
The Rams played within themselves last season as they strove to balance the offense, taking more than a bit away from the old McElwain passing game while putting more emphasis in the infantry. With the returnees along the OL and top RBs Dalyn Dawkins (former Purdue transfer; 867 YR LY) and soph Izzy Matthews (6.1 ypc in 2015), expect CSU to try to pick up where it left off December. Maybe even with more emphasis on the run, as star WR Higgins has moved to the NFL, RB Dawkins the leading returning receiver (24 catches LY) on the roster, and little experience among the returning wideouts and at TE. If the offense bogs down, Ray Guy Award finalist P Hayden Hunt can usually kick the team out of trouble.
What scares the locals in Fort Collins is that the offense might have to pick up the pace to compensate for a defense in semi-rebuild mode. Coordinator Tyson Summers left to become HC at Georgia Southern, with former LB Coach Marty English inheriting the d.c. duties, which he held as a co-coordinator during the McElwain years. In the process, English will re-install the 3-4 alignments he utilized under McElwain.
Five starters return, though none are on a DL that was a bit permissive vs. the run in 2015, ranking a lowly 107th against the rush. The strength of the platoon is likely at LB, where top tacklers srs. Kevin Davis (101 tackles LY) and Deonte Clyburn (74 tackles in 2015) return to anchor. Two starters return in the secondary but there was news in this area during spring, when former WR Jordan Vaden was moved to CB and exited drills as a starter, while several juco imports, inclduing CBs A’Keitheon Whitner and FS Houston Haynes, made positive impressions. Touted JC transfer CB Devron Davis arrives for fall camp.
As usual, the tenor of the early part of the season is going to be set by the game vs. rival Colorado, this September taking place opening week (a Friday night special at that) in Denver. Trips to Big Ten Minnesota, and Mountain West meatgrinders at Boise, Air Force, and San Diego State loom as hurdles. Several winnable games, however, appear to be on tap in the testimonial season of venerable Hughes Stadium, nestled in the foothills of the Rockies and a few miles from campus. Expect emotion to be heavy for the home finale vs. New Mexico on November 19. We’re guessing CSU moves into its new on-campus stadium next year off of another minor bowl appearance, with 6-6 sounding about right.
Spread-wise, after CSU entered Bobo’s debut season having covered 21 of its last 30 against the number, the Rams were a non-descript 6-6-1 vs. the line a year ago. CSU continued to fare well at Hughes Stadium, covering 4 of 5, and now 14-5 vs. the spread its last 19 as host dating to late 2012.
Well, there’s a couple of ways we can look at what HC Craig Bohl left behind at North Dakota State, where he won three straight national titles before taking the job two years ago at Wyoming (2015 SU 2-10; ATS 6-6). All the Bison have done since is continue to win FCS-level championships as they had done for Bohl. Plus, QB Carson Wentz would be the second player taken in April’s NFL Draft when tabbed by the Eagles.
So, did Bohl create such a machine at NDSU that it could continue to win after he left? Or did Bohl just have such a talent edge that he couldn't help but win at the Missouri Valley and FCS levels...something he has yet to do in Laramie.
Though the jury remains out on Bohl with Wyo, most MW insiders are giving him the benefit of the doubt and expecting the Cowboys to start a slow climb back to respectability this fall. After all, Bohl did not inherit a powerhouse from predecessor Dave Christensen. Then again, the Christensen Cowboys were never threatening a winless season as Wyo was a year ago, dropping their first six before finally getting in the W column with a close win over Nevada. The Pokes’ 2-10 SU mark would be the worst at the school since 2002, a performance that forced HC Vic Koenning, who was just 5-29 in three seasons, to walk the plank.
Some MW observers nonetheless believe a breakthrough for Dick Cheney’s alma mater is imminent, citing the return of nine starters to an offense that unfortunately ranked in triple digits nationally in most meaningful categories.There is hope, however, that a full plate of returning starters on the OL and beast-mode jr. RB Brian Hill can lead a resurgence.
Hill, with his punishing Marshawn Lynch-like style and long hair, is now a 220-lb. smash machine who runs with the reckless abandon of Lynch and gained a whopping 1631 YR as the main highlight for Wyo in 2015. That set a Cowboy single-season record and has already made Hill the fifth-leading rusher in school history. Hill carried more of the load last fall because of the early season-ending concussion suffered by backfield mate Shaun Wick, himself the Cowboys’ ninth-leading all-time rusher (2179 YR). Though Hill’s numbers might reduce some with a healthy Wick, this RB combo is as good as any in the Mountain.
Still, Wyo, which scored a puny 19 ppg in 2015 (ranking 115h nationally), doesn’t go anywhere without an upgrade at QB, which has been an issue for Bohl ever since he arrived in Laramie. After former Indiana transfer Cameron Coffman took most of the snaps last season, Bohl and o.c. Brent Vigen enter the fall with their third different starting QB in as many years in soph Josh Allen, who looked good for a handful of plays against Eastern Michigan in week 2 before shattering his collarbone. Now healed, the former juco enters fall camp ahead of soph Nick Smith, forced into action in emergency mode last season.
Consistency, or lack thereof, at the QB spot has been an issue for the Bohl Wyo teams, and the pressure is on Allen to provide an upgrade, and to demonstrate that his big-league arm has some accuracy after reminding some of a right-handed Bobby Douglass. Fortunately he has at his disposal a pair of established wideouts, srs. Tanner Gentry and Jake Maulhardt, who combined for 94 catches and 12 TDs last fall even as Gentry missed the last five games due to injury.
The “D” would be hampered a year ago partly by a sluggish offense that provided little cushion, but also by an alarming lack of big-play ability. The Pokes only forced 10 turnovers in 2015, ranking tied for dead-last nationally in that category alongside defense-poor Rice. A total rebuild is in store for the DL that must replace all of its starters, including big-play DE Eddie Yarbrough, who will spend summer in the NFL Broncos camp after being ganged up upon by opposing offensive linemen a year ago. Even with Yarbrough, Wyo was pushed around up front last season and conceded a hefty 225 ypg on the ground, ranking a poor 113th nationally. Still undersized up front, the Cowboys need their LBs to play big, though there is experience in that group featuring ILB Lucas Wacha, the team’s leading returning tackler (96) from a year ago.
The strength of the platoon is likely in an experienced secondary that returns three starters including star FS, soph Andrew Wingard, an All-MW selection as a frosh. Four CBs who started last season return, while jr. Jalen Ortiz, a UCLA transfer, is expected to push for playing time at safety or as a nickel back.
Bohl will be excited about a September 10 non-conference date at alma mater Nebraska, though a better indicator of Wyo’s progress prior to MW play will probably be the September games vs. MAC foes Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan. Mountain Division contenders Boise State, Air Force, and Utah State all visit Laramie, which might give the Cowboys a fighting chance, though Bohl will do well to steer the Cowboys into minor bowl contention. Wyo fans will probably be satisfied with adding a few more wins from last season, but their patience with Bohl, his NDSU success or not, will begin to wear thin if Wyo doesn’t get near .500 this fall.
Against the number, Bohl has had more success than his 6-18 SU mark; Wyo is 11-13 vs. the number since 2014, not great but not as bad as 6-18 straight-up. Bohl has yet to make Laramie much of an edge, as the Pokes' two-year spread mark as host is only 4-8. The Bohl trend to note has been a definite “under” slant, now 16-8 over the past two seasons.
MWC Outlook - West
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com
Last year's straight-up, against the spread, and over/under results are included for each team, presented in predicted order of finish...
By the end of last season, the only thing grating about San Diego State (2015 SU 11-3; ATS 8-5-1) was longtime play-by-play man Ted Leitner. Ten straight wins to close the season would make it easy to ignore the infuriating Leitner as the Aztecs began to fly in some rarified air, tying one of the legendary Don Coryell’s best SDSU teams (with QB Dennis Shaw in 1969) for the school’s all-time win mark at 11. Along the way the Aztecs rolled to the Mountain West crown and restored some dignity to the league when blasting American rep Cincinnati in the Hawaii Bowl.
All of that seemed a bit far-fetched in late September when SDSU was laboring at 1-3 and counted a home loss against Sun Belt South Alabama on the debit side of the ledger. Even as the subsequent win streak advanced, and the Aztecs dominated the MW by winning all of their regular-season conference games by 14 or more, they bore little resemblance to the pass-happy template that Coryell’s teams created once upon a time on Montezuma Mesa. (Indeed, it’s been a while since SDSU’s passing game resembled a well-oiled machine.) Yet Kentucky transfer QB Maxwell Smith proved an effective game manager and kept mistakes to a minimum as the offense would pivot around slashing RB Donnel Pumphrey, who would run away with MW MVP honors while rushing for 1653 yards. Meanwhile, the stop unit eventually got the hang of HC (and d.c.) Rocky Long’s noted schemes out of 3-3-5 alignments and would finish in the top ten nationally in all relevant (rushing, passing, scoring, and overall) categories. Among other noteworthy stat accomplishments by the 2015 Aztecs was a staggering +22 TO margin that ranked best in the land.
The pieces are in place to dominate the MW again, partly because of the return of star RB Pumphrey, who resisted the temptation to jump early into last April’s NFL Draft. Still on campus, the whippet-like, 180-lb. sr. from Las Vegas with 4272 career YR is now within sight of Marshall Faulk’s all-time school rushing mark of 4589 YRs (set, it should be noted, in just three seasons between 1991-93). Moreover, Pumphrey led SDSU with 28 pass receptions a year ago. He’s the closest thing to a one man gang this side of the WWE, though RS frosh Juwan Washington is a 5'7 jitterbug who could give Pumphrey an occasional blow after impressing in the spring game, when he scored on a 48-yard run.
Pumphrey’s presence is important, because there are still questions about the new QB, soph Christian Chapman, who got his feet wet late last season when taking over for injured Maxwell Smith and leading the last three SDSU wins, including the MW title game vs. Air Force and the bowl win in Honolulu vs. the Bearcats. Yet Chapman’s ability to throw downfield remains a bit of an unknown, and the strike force is again likely to revolve around the mercurial Pumphrey. More will be expected of WR Micah Holder, the leading returning wideout who caught 24 passes a year ago.
More substantive concerns for o.c. Jeff Horton are on the right side of the OL, with new starters to break in at the guard and tackle spots. But three other starters, including honors candidate LG Nico Siragusa, return along a forward wall which paved the way for a school-record 3266 YR last fall. The Aztecs also have a return threat of note in Rashaad Penny, who gained a whopping 33.5 yards on his KRs and took 3 of those back for TDs.
SDSU can probably deal with a few bumps on the offensive side because the “D” looks once again to be head-and-shoulders above all others in the MW. Good news came last January when CB Damontae Kazee, the MW Defensive MVP, like Pumphrey also decided to wait on the NFL Draft so he could return for his senior season, where he will again will lock down the opponents’ best receiver and be the leader of one of the region’s top secondaries that also featured big-play jr. FS Malik Smith, who recorded 77 tackles and 5 picks of his own last season. Fellow DB Na’im McGee, playing the same “Aztec” role in the Rocky Long defense as did Brian Urlacher once upon a time for Long at New Mexico (when the position was appropriately called “Lobo”), was the team’s second leading tackler with 81 a year ago.
There are a few holes to fill up front defensively, but returnee DEs Kyle Kelley and Alex Barrett combined for 13 sacks last season, and LB Calvin Munson was a playmaker, recording a team-best 98 tackles that included 15 stops for loss and 9.5 sacks. No MW team scored more than 17 points vs. this platoon until Air Force tallied 24 in the MW title game.
The non-league schedule appears less treacherous than a year ago, especially since the highest-profile foe, Cal, visits Qualcomm Stadium in rebuild mode after QB Jared Goff was the first pick by the Rams in the NFL Draft. Challenges in the Mountain West do not include Boise State or Air Force, both off of the schedule until perhaps the conference title game. Which is where the Aztecs likely wind up again in December, where, if all goes well, SDSU could enter as a ranked team. Which would make another season of Ted Leitner at the microphone at least tolerable for Aztec backers.
Spread-wise, we’re not sure SDSU gets many chances in an underdog role that has proved profitable for Long’s Aztec teams (now 8-3-1 last 12 getting points). But SDSU has certainly been a go-with vs. MW foes, undefeated vs. the line in the last 11 regular-season league games. Consistent with the defensive theme, Rocky’s guys are also 20-7 “under” the past two seasons.
The “Pistol” formation has been about as familiar in Washoe County as the annual Reno air races in August or the legendary BBQ cook-off each September at John Ascuaga’s Nugget in Sparks. Since introduced by HOF HC Chris Ault in 2005, the Pistol has been the primary offensive formation for the Nevada Wolf Pack (2015 SU 7-6; ATS 8-4-1) and helped QB Colin Kaepernick make a name for himself in college before moving to the NFL 49ers.
The Pistol has remained in place at Mackay Stadium since Ault retired following the 2012 season, as successor Brian Polian was not about to change a good thing. But with o.c. Nick Rolovich, a holdover from the Ault years, having moved in the offseason to alma mater Hawaii to become its head coach, Polian is making some significant adjustments to the Nevada “O” for the first time since early in George W. Bush’s second term in the White House. Though the Pistol will not go away completely, Polian did not hire new o.c. Tim Cramsey from Montana State to abandon the high-power spread that Cramsey’s Bobcat offenses employed recently in Bozeman.
Cramsey, a Chip Kelly disciple, has been enlisted by Polian to add more pop to a passing game that regressed to a sickly 113th national ranking a season ago. The Pistol principles that produced a pair of 1000-yard rushers last season will not be abandoned, but Cramsey’s task is rather straight-forward, as instructed by HC Polian...put some dynamism back into the passing game.
To that end, Cramsey and Polian opened up QB competition in the spring despite the presence of returning starter Tyler Stewart, who led the Pack to a win in the All-MW Arizona Bowl vs. Colorado State last December. Juco transfer Ty Gangi and last year’s backup, soph Hunter Fralick, were given looks, though by the end of spring it was Stewart still in the pilot seat after looking increasingly comfortable in Cramsey’s offense as spring progressed.
Nine starters are back on offense, and that doesn’t even include jr. RB James Butler, who gained 1345 YR a year ago in a relief role (only one start). Penn State grad transfer Akeel Lynch should give Polian & Cramsey another potent 1-2 RB punch. All five starters return on an all-upperclass OL that had some problems in protecting Stewart a year ago but in spring was getting the hang of Cramsey's offense and the upgraded pass-blocking techniques.
For the "O" to hum, however, it will be up to sr. QB Stewart to take another step forward after producing only serviceable stats (2139 YP & 15 TDs) a year ago. A good athlete, Stewart also affords Cramsey some added options in the spread and Pistol. Plaxico Burress-sized Hassan Henderson and electron Jerrico Richardson combined for 120 catches and 9 TDs. They’re two of seven projected seniors to start on offense. Another sr. is PK Brent Zuzo, a nice safety blanket should drives bog down after hitting all 17 of his FG tries inside of 50 yards a year ago.
We usually spend more time talking about Nevada’s offense because, well, there’s more to talk about. But the Pack probably wouldn’t have qualified for a bowl last season if not for stop unit upgrades that continued under d.c. Scott Boone, who arrived from William & Mary in 2014 and has authored improvements each of the last two seasons after the “D” leaked badly (34.4 ppg) in Polian’s first season of 2013.
Boone, though, has a chore this fall with an almost completely-rebuilt front seven that must replace, among others, all-MW DEs Ian Seau and Lenny Jones. Several recent backups who were part of well-regarded recruiting hauls will be expected to contribute right away alongside the only returning starter up front, sr. NT Salesa Faraimo, while RS frosh DT Huasia Sekona was one of the headliners in spring. The LB corps is completely rebuilt, where returnees have combined for all of three starts and RS frosh Gabe Sewell is expected to handle MLB duties.
Fortunately for Boone, the secondary returns all four starters, with soph safeties Asauni Rufus and Dameon Baber already regarded as two of the best in the MW, and sr. Elijah Mitchell rated as one of the top shutdown corners in the league.
The schedule intrigues, as the Pack gets a do-over for one of the great missed opportunities in school history when Ault’s 2009 team, with Kaepernick, was blanked at Notre Dame in the opener. This year, Nevada gets Cal Poly to hopefully work out some of the kinks in the new Cramsey offense before a return to South Bend, though a more realistic chance for a marquee non-league win might come two weeks later at Purdue. The Pack gets a break in the MW as it misses Boise State, Air Force, and Colorado State from the Mountain half, while getting West favorite San Diego State, plus Utah State, in Reno. Nevada, which since Ault installed the Pistol in 2005 has missed a bowl only in Polian’s debut campaign of 2013, should get back to one of those MW postseason dates in Albuquerque, Boise, or Tucson again this season.
Spread-wise, note that Polian’s Nevada has become ornery on the road, standing 9-2-1 vs. the line as a visitor the past two seasons. The Pack also enters this fall “under” 11-5 in its last 16 games on the board.
If you’re looking for an example of bowl bloat, meet San Jose State (2015 SU 6-7; ATS 8-5), which made it to the postseason with a 5-7 record last fall only because there were not enough 6-6 teams to fill all of the available slots, and the Spartans had a good enough team APR score to qualify. But the Orlando Cure Bowl was glad to have San Jose face 6-6 Georgia State in a game that only hard-core gridiron junkies found interesting. The Spartans didn’t make any money from the trip, but they did win 27-16. Never mind that for the first time in college football history, bowl opponents would each finish with losing records, or that only a handful of people watched in the Citrus Bowl. San Jose, like Alabama and Stanford, was a bowl winner!
In the real universe upon returning from Disney World, however, personable San Jose HC Ron Caragher realizes that he is on something of a hot seat as his Spartans, while admittedly 1-0 in their bowl appearances, have yet to crack the .500 mark in his three years on the job. Which represents quite a slide in the wrong direction for a program that seemed on the ascent a few years ago for predecessor Mike MacIntyre when going 11-2 and beating Bowling Green in the 2012 Military Bowl. Since MacIntyre is now on the hot seat at Colorado after winning only ten games in the three years since with the Buffs, and the Spartans have not climbed during that time period, either, perhaps MacIntyre could have saved everyone a lot of trouble by just staying in San Jose, but we digress.
In what might be a must-win season for Caragher, at least his Spartans figure to have a fighting chance. There are 15 listed starters back in the fold from 2015, though one of those is not RB Tyler Ervin, who led the nation’s rushers for a time last fall and ended with 1601 YR plus another 45 pass receptions before being drafted by the NFL’s Houston Texans. Although former juco QB Kenny Potter does return after an impressive debut when completing 67% of his passes and tossing 15 TDs after taking the job from holdover Joe Gray. Potter’s feet are also not in concrete, reflected in his 415 YR and five scrambles good for 30 yards or more.
Potter’s ability to both pass and run is a good indicator for an attack that if nothing else was well-balanced a year ago, ranking a respectable 60th in total offense. Achieving that sort of balance might be harder chore this fall minus Ervin, though compact 202-lb. sr. Thomas Tucker has run with some flair when not injured in recent years, even if most of those highlights came back in 2013. More than likely, o.c. Al Borges will employ a RB-by-committee approach in the fall.
The versatile Potter, however, at least figures to give SJSU a puncher’s chance, especially with three of his top four targets back in the fold, including All-MW sr. TE Billy Freeman (48 catches last year). Four starters are back along an OL that successfully implemented some position switches in spring, with jr. Nate Velichko moving from LT to RT. Velichko, along with LG Jeremiah Kolone, are rated as honors candidates along the forward wall.
The “D” has a different look after vet d.c. Greg Robinson retired. New coordinator Ron English, once a HC at Eastern Michigan who has lived to tell about it after earlier in his career considered an up-and-comer in the coaching ranks when Lloyd Carr’s d.c. at Michigan, has a new staff with him that will be tasked first and foremost to improve a sieve-like rush “D” that has ranked 119th and 102nd, respectively, vs. the run the past two seasons.
English does have some experience at his disposal with seven returning starters on the platoon, including sr. DEs Nick Oreglia and Isaiah Irving. During spring, English and staff decided to move jr. Andre Chachere to a CB spot after he started 10 games as a hybrid LB/safety a year ago in Robinson’s alignments. Playmakers of note at the LB spots include Christian Tago, an All-MW pick last fall, and soph Frank Ginda, who flashed real upside as a frosh. Though foes spent most of their time running at the soft San Jose rush defense a year ago, the Spartans still ranked second nationally in pass yards allowed and a very respectable 34th in total defense, spectacular numbers for San Jose and a credit to the schemes of the crafty Robinson. Not the easiest shoes for English to fill.
Caragher, who was likely to get another season even before the bowl invitation after San Jose improved from three wins in 2014, is nonetheless on a semi-hot seat and cannot afford the program to regress if he wants to last into 2017. A tricky non-league slate that includes games at Tulsa and Iowa State and home vs. Utah might make a fast start difficult, and San Jose has road league dates at division favorites Boise State and San Diego State. To paraphrase the great actor John Houseman from the long-ago Smith Barney TV commercials, if Caragher is to last into next season, he will have done it the old-fashioned way, by earning it.
Spread-wise, Caragher’s San Jose’s has developed a few noteworthy trends, including 9-2 as chalk the past two seasons, but just 2-12 as an underdog over the same span. The Spartans have also covered their last four openers dating to the end of the MacIntrye regime, something perhaps to keep in mind for the September 3 kickoff at Tulsa.
For 30 years, UNLV (2015 SU 3-9; ATS 5-7) tried almost everything to find the proper head coach since Harvey Hyde was fired after the 1985 season, the last time a Rebel mentor had a winning career record at the school. Promoting from within, tapping up-and-coming assistants and decorated coordinators, luring former legendary coaches, and hiring successful coaches at lower levels all didn’t work. But before UNLV would be reduced to hiring Wayne Newton as its next coach, it would test the one hiring route it had not traveled before...straight from the high school ranks.
Never mind recent history, and other sorts elsewhere such as Gerry Faust and Todd Dodge that had failed to make the similar jump. After the Bobby Hauck regime finally ran aground after another 2-win season in 2014, UNLV gambled and plucked local prep legend coach Tony Sanchez from in-town national power Bishop Gorman. After all, what could the risk be if all other avenues had failed?
Well, as expected, the jury remains out on the Sanchez hire. Optimistic sorts in Clark County point to a slight improvement (two wins to three) from the last season of the Hauck era. Some longtime regional observers also detected a bit more spark last year from the Rebs, who might have made a run at a minor bowl had injuries not decimated the team in the second half of the season.
Ahh, the injury excuse. Always a convenient scapegoat. In the case of UNLV 2015, however, it certainly applied in the late collapse. That’s also a byproduct of shallow depth, and when there is little or no cover at the all-important QB spot.
Indeed, we never really got to see what the Rebels could do a year ago with a healthy QB Blake Decker, who was in and out of the lineup almost the entire season with a collection of nagging injuries that forced limited backup Kurt Palandech, who wouldn’t even complete 50% of his 152 pass attempts, into action in all but one game. With Palandech forced either to start or relieve hurting Decker from early October, the Rebs would lose (and fail to cover) 6 of their last 7 games after briefly teasing the locals following a rousing win at Reno vs. Fremont Cannon rival Nevada.
Decker has moved on and the QB position remains a question as UNLV proceeds into year two of the Sanchez experiment. Palandech remains, but most MW observers believe that juco A-A Johnny Stanton, who began his career at Nebraska where he played for current Reb o.c. Barney Cotton, is likely to win the job this fall after exiting spring slightly ahead of Palandech. The wild card in the mix is true frosh Armani Rogers, an L.A. area product most likely to be redshirted unless Stanton or Palandech can’t deliver.
Cotton’s Nebraska-styled offense moved the ball effectively on the ground a year ago, gaining almost 200 ypg rushing, and top RBs Keith Whitely (team-best 711 YR) and Lexington Thomas (506 YR) are back in the fold. The forward wall was one area that was injury-wracked in 2015 and ended the season with a severely undersized quintet, but a year of beefing up at the training table could pay dividends. There are established receiving targets in jrs. Devonte Boyd (54 catches LY) and Kendal Keys (another 43 receptions), who combined for 13 TDs in 2015, plus RS frosh Darren Woods, Jr., who put on a show in spring. But unless Cotton finds consistency at the QB spot, these other potential positives might not resonate.
What Mountain West observers mostly applauded about Sanchez in his debut year was hiring veteran coordinators like Cotton and Kent Baer (formerly at Colorado, Washington, and Notre Dame, where he was also interim HC for the Fighting Irish in the 2004 Insight Bowl after Ty Willingham’s dismissal), who oversaw the defense. Much like the offense, however, Baer’s platoon would tail off late in the season after injuries brutally exposed a lack of depth. UNLV allowed 42 ppg in its last five games after not embarrassing itself early in the season vs. the likes of UCLA and Michigan.
Areas of needed upgrade are obvious, especially vs. the run where the Rebs were more than a bit ginger last fall when ranking a sorry 111th nationally and routinely overpowered at the line of scrimmage. Opposing runners would gain an astonishing 800 yards after first contact as well as a hefty 5.7 ypc. Baer was supposedly satisfied with the progress he saw in spring, and another year in the weight room should help the Reb physicality. UNLV also finished last nationally with a puny nine sacks, an especially unsatisfactory stat in this day and age.
There is some experience in the front seven, with DE Mark Finau and DT Mike Hughes as returning starters up front, and all three LBs return, now augmented by Illinois sr. transfer LaKeith Walls and decorated juco Brian Keyes. The secondary returns both starting corners, Terry McTyer and Tim Hough, and figures to be the strength of the platoon, whatever that means for a stop unit that ranked 110th nationally.
The schedule is a bit more favorable than a year ago, though there is a first-ever trip to the Rose Bowl in week two for the return match vs. UCLA. Still, the Rebs figure to be heavily favored at home vs. Jackson State and Idaho before Mountain West play commences. Trips to San Diego State and Boise State might be beyond UNLV’s reach, but if the Rebs can stay healthier than last year and avoid their depth being exposed, plus get some satisfactory work at QB, they ought to have a look at the other games, and the locals might prefer watching UNLV on Saturdays instead of taking in Donny & Marie at the Flamingo. But those are some big ifs.
The Sanchez spread marks in 2015 were distorted by the QB issues and the spate of injuries; the Rebs were covering numbers early in the season and not doing so down the stretch. What was worth noting, however, was an 0-4 home dog mark at wind-swept Sam Boyd Stadium, a role in which UNLV had fared quite well in the preceding Hauck and Mike Sanford regimes. The Rebs also enter 2016 “over” in 13 of their last 16 games dating back to late 2014.
The fall from grace for Fresno State Bulldogs (2015 SU 3-9; ATS 4-8.) HC Tim DeRuyter has not been quite as dramatic as for British Prime Minister David Cameron after the recent Brexit vote. After all, DeRuyter will still have his job this fall, and Cameron won’t. But come December or January, DeRuyter might be looking for his next job, too, if his Fresno program can’t pull out of its recent lurch and get back to a bowl for the first time since 2013.
And it’s not just that the Bulldogs are losing. They’ve taken more beatings than former heavyweight contender George Chuvalo the past few years, underlining how far they have fallen since DeRuyter was considered a coach du jour not long ago.
The Red Wave support base is certainly getting nervous about the direction of a program that has been all downhill since DeRuyter’s early days that were aided by holdovers from the preceding Pat Hill regime. Including QB Derek Carr, now the starter for the Oakland Raiders and who posted record-breaking stats for DeRuyter’s 2012 & ’13 teams. Numerous heavy defeats have followed, several of those a year ago, including a 73-point bomb dropped by Ole Miss and a 56-14 home loss to Utah State. Utah also rolled at Fresno, when the Utes rubbed it in with a last second pass for a score. There were suspicions in the region that Utah HC Kyle Whittingham wanted to send a message to DeRuyter for needlessly running up the scores on some other members of the coaching fraternity, or which Whittingham is a card-carrying member, earlier in his Fresno career.
So, the one-time golden boy coach from Air Force is now at a crossroads, and prospects are not encouraging for a program that is slipping fast, not the direction to be headed in your fifth year on the job.
The most glaring need is for some stability at the QB position, which has cycled six different starters post-Carr. There is hope that RS frosh Chason Virgil, who showed promise early last term before getting KO’d with broken collarbone in his first start during that ill-fated 45-24 loss to Utah, can provide some relief, but garbage-time TDs at Ole Miss make for a risky endorsement. Former West Virginia transfer Ford Childress, also hurt last season, and soph Kilton Anderson, who started much of the second half of the campaign but completed fewer than 50% of his passes while tossing just 2 TDs in 157 attempts, are also in the mix. Some MW observers believe DeRuyter might even roll the dice with true frosh Quentin Davis if the season starts to go pear-shaped into October.
In a true sign of hot-seat status, DeRuyter made several staff changes in the offseason (six in all), cleaning out almost the entire cast of offensive assistants, including coordinator Dave Schramm, after the “O” slumped to triple figures nationally in all key stat categories, including a ghastly 122nd in total offense. New o.c. Eric Kiesau arrived from Alabama and began to simplify the offense in spring, junking the uptempo spread looks and instead installing multi-set pro looks designed at establishing the run, as they do in Tuscaloosa. Unfortunately, there is no Derrick Henry on the Bulldog roster, with QB Anderson the leading returning rusher after gaining 211 yards while often running for his life a year ago. Workhorse Marteze Waller, who gained 2288 YR the past two seasons, has departed, and Kiesau likely employs an RB-by-committee approach, though 217-lb. juco transfer Dontel James got most of the first-team reps in spring.
But after years of running uptempo, the switch to a ball-control offense seems curious, especially without any experienced RBs to rely upon. This move could backfire on DeRuyter.
If there is a strength on offense it would appear to be the receiving corps, as the top three pass catchers from 2015 (wideouts Jamire Jordan, KeeSean Johnson, and Da’Mari Scott) all return, but three new starters are being plugged in along the OL. There appears nowhere to go but up for the offense...but wouldn’t it be hard to be more inept than the Bulldogs were a year ago?
DeRuyter also made switches on his defensive staff, demoting Nick Toth to a LB coach in favor of SEC veteran Lorenzo Ward, most recently on South Carolina’s staff and now in charge of DeRuyter’s beloved 3-4 that was a sack and turnover machine upon his arrival. Not lately, however, deteriorating much like the offense, all of the way down to a 118th ranking in scoring (38.1 ppg) a year ago, leaving plenty of gaps for Ward to fill.
Only four starters return on defense, which might not be a bad thing, though the CB position should be capable with returning starters Tyquwan Glass and Jamal Ellis still in the fold. Upgrades are really needed up front where the Bulldogs were routinely blown off of the line of scrimmage last season en route to ranking a sickly 117th vs. the run (235 ypg). To that end, a couple of 310-lb. juco NTs, Malik Forrester and Patrick Belony, were signed in a hurry in the offseason, and their presence at least allows Nate Madsen to slide back outside to his natural DE position. A possible playmaker to watch is hybrid LB/safety James Bailey, one of the few Bulldog defenders to flash real upside a year ago.
Schedule-wise, Fresno is expected to be overmatched in the opener at Nebraska, and we’ll get a better feel if DeRuyter has the program back on the upswing if results are better vs. Toledo and Tulsa later in September. The Mountain West is not a treacherous league, but Fresno won only two games in the loop a year ago. Unless DeRuyter can improve significantly on that number, it will be confirmation that the program has gone in the wrong direction on his watch, and his future job prospects at Fresno become cloudy. We’ll see what happens.
Another reason DeRuyter has quickly fallen out of favor with the Red Wave is an unmistakable pointspread downturn that actually began during Derek Carr’s last season in 2013. The Bulldogs are a subpar 15-23-1 vs. the line the past three seasons, since 2013, and just 5-11 against the number their last 16 away from home. Fresno is also just 3-10 vs. the line its last 13 vs. non-MW foes, with two of those Ws against lower-level Southern Utah and Abilene Christian opposition, something to keep in mind prior to the Nebraska, Toledo, and Tulsa games.
It was US philosopher and poet George Santayana who once said, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” Well, we can be reasonably sure that the schedule-makers for football at Hawaii (2015 SU 3-10; ATS 3-10) paid no attention to Mr. Santayana, as the Rainbow Warriors do not seem to have learned much from their suicidal scheduling resolve from a year ago.
To wit: Last year, Hawaii took a pair of long trips to Big Ten powers Ohio State and Wisconsin within a two-week span in September. In the process, the Rainbows were ground into hula dust, blanked in both of those games with confidence shaken and bodies badly bruised. And when the team returned to Honolulu from Madison and flew back to Boise a few days later, instead of staying on the mainland as many past Hawaii editions had done, the exhausted Warriors were blasted by the Broncos, 55-0. Three shutouts on the road within three calendar weeks, traveling more miles than Secretary of State John Kerry in the process. Hawaii’s season was effectively finished at that point, as was the disappointing tenure of HC Norm Chow, who would be dismissed a month later after a 58-7 Halloween night massacre at Aloha Stadium administered by Air Force. And the game wasn’t that close.
So what does Hawaii have scheduled for this season? How about an early opening the other way across the Pacific, all of the way down to Sydney, Australia to face Cal! But rather than take a week off afterward (as Cal is doing), or playing a game at home, it’s on to Ann Arbor to face Jim Harbaugh’s highly-ranked Michigan. So, a 10,000-mile round trip to Sydney will be followed by a 9000-mile round trip to Detroit Metro. Two weeks later, it’s back to the mainland again to face Pac-12 Arizona in Tucson. Thus, in the first month of the season alone, the Warriors will be logging well over 25,000 air miles, and will have traveled approximately 46,594 air miles by the time the 2016 term is complete, two-to-three times more than most NFL teams travel in a season.
So, welcome home, Nick Rolovich!
We’re sure Hawaii’s new HC, hired off of Brian Polian’s Nevada staff but very familiar on the islands after his playing days as QB during the June Jones Red Gun era and on staffs of Jones and successor Greg McMackin at Aloha Stadium, would not have endorsed such sadistic non-conference scheduling. But it is what it is at Hawaii, which runs a significant budget deficit with its football program and needs a couple of big mainland (or Aussie) paydays to stay afloat.
Rolovich, who became well-versed in the Chris Ault Pistol at Nevada after being exposed to the Red Gun earlier in his career, is going to try to combine both in a hybrid system that blends the run-and-shoot and read-option concepts. During spring, Rolovich was able to test drive not only the new offense, but also the unique play-calling arrangement to be shared with former Rainbow Warrior teammates Brian Smith (run game) and Craig Stutzmann (pass game). Still to be figured out is who will be taking snaps after nothing was resolved in spring. Holdover Ikaika Woolsey is the only QB on the roster who has thrown a D-I pass, but RS frosh Aaron Zwahlen and soph Beau Reilly, back from his LDS mission, remain in the mix heading into fall camp.
Nothing ever worked for the preceding Chow offense, which ditched the Red Gun principles first implemented by Jones, and the Rolovich attack has nowhere to go but up after Hawaii ranked 120th in total offense and 118th in scoring a year ago. There are eight starters back in the “O” mix, including slashing RB Paul Harris, one of the few bright spots of last season when running for 1132 yards. Nine of the top ten receivers, including Marcus Kemp, who caught a team-best 36 passes a year ago, also return. The change theme continued in spring when Rolovich and his co-coordinators juggled positions with the four returning starters up front. Hawaii also saves a scholarship or two by having on the roster sr. Rigoberto Sanchez, who handles FGs, PATs, punts, kickoffs, and peanut sales at Aloha Stadium when time permits.
The back-to-the-future element continues on defense, where Rolovich has brought back another link to the June Jones era, d.c. Kevin Lempa, who last worked in Honolulu 13 years ago and was most recently DB coach at Boston College. Lempa will resurrect the 4-3 defense from the Jones years with hopes of coaxing more big plays after the 2015 platoon generated a puny 11 TOs, contributing to a nation’s worst -23 TO margin (ouch!).
Unfortunately, the top returning defender, All-MW DT Kennedy Tulimasealii, is in eligibility limbo after a pair of spring arrests earned him a suspension from the team. Even with Tuilmasealii, Hawaii ranked 120th nationally vs. the run, and his availability, plus fellow DTs, former Colorado transfer Kory Rasmussen, and Samiuela Akoteu, recovering from offseason knee and foot injuries, respectively, will be key to any upgrades.
In spring, Lempa moved DE Jahlani Tavai from DE to MLB with positive results, and weakside LB Jerrol-Garcia Williams is considered the best pro prospect on the platoon. More position switches figure to continue when the Warriors report to fall camp. A key in the secondary will be the return of SS Trayvon Henderson, a two-year starter who sat out 2015 with injury.
In conclusion, we wonder if Rolovich is going to regret this move back to Hawaii, and the likely bitter homecoming this fall. Hawaii has quickly become a thankless job, more treacherous because of the Honolulu fishbowl and exorbitant local pressure. True, the link to the Jones era has some local diehards, including former play-by-play man Jim Leahey, excited, and the ghost of Don Ho also likely approves, but it looks like a long, long slog for Rolovich to get the Rainbow Warriors, with five straight losing seasons, back on track.
Spread-wise, Aloha Stadium relinquished its reputation as a fortress during the Chow years, and Hawaii enters 2016 having dropped 10 of its last 11 vs. the line at home. The Warriors also dropped 10 of their last 11 vs. the spread at all sites a year ago.