Mountain West Preview
By Marc Lawrence
Just in case you missed it last year… a geography refresher: ranging in altitudes from 7 feet to 7,220 feet, the MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE looks to be growing to new heights.
Utah is perched atop and of last year’s perfect season is ready to reclaim its position in the Conference pecking order. Meanwhile BYU and TCU just might have something to say about who sits where in the MWC this year. The bottom line is this mini-Conference is scaling to new levels…
Returning starters are listed alongside each team’s name (returning QB’s designated with an *)
AIR FORCE - *6/7
Team Theme – TWO THUMBS UP
With 17 wins in two seasons, Troy Calhoun marks his spot in service academy annals with the 2nd winningest record of head coaches in their first two years at a military helm. Ironically all three military teams managed to win a game last year without completing a pass. That’s what can happen when you manufacture the majority of your yardage on the ground. Because of its preference for ground warfare, the Force has finished in the Top 10 in rushing offense 21 years in a row. Playing 12 consecutive Saturdays in 2009 shouldn’t bother the disciplined Falcons. After all, they are 9-3 SU and ATS in their final six games of the season under Calhoun. The Falcons might not make many highlight reels but, like Siskel and Ebert, we like Calhoun.
PLAY ON: vs. Utah (10/24)
BYU – *4/8
Team Theme – THE PERFECT STORM
The Cougars fell short of their goal of playing in a BCS bowl game last season. A season ending loss at Utah sealed their fate. Still, a third straight 10-win effort puts them in elite company as only Boise State, Florida, Ohio State and Oklahoma own more victories over the same span. Three key players from the offense are back, including QB Max Hall, RB Harvey Unga and WR Dennis Pitta. Hall was the nation’s 6th ranked passer in 2008 (330 of 477 for 3957 yards and 35 TD’s) while Unga has rushed for 2380 yards and 24 TD’s the last two seasons. Pitta, who had 83 receptions for 1083 yards last year, softens the loss of star WR Austin Collie. Perfect at home the last three years for the first time in school history, the Mormons should be stormin’ once again in ’09.
PLAY ON: vs. Utah (11/28)
COLORADO STATE – 7/5
Team Theme – WHY NOT?
When most teams lose their starting quarterback and a pair of 1,000 yard rushers, it’s generally a time to panic. Such is not the case in Ft. Collins. 2nd year head coach Steve Fairchild committed his team to a strong off-season conditioning program and is actually excited about his chances this year. “What we needed to define us last year was establishing a toughness, a work ethic, an accountability… now I’d like to start aiming at something. And if we don’t get there this year, so be it. But at least we aimed high,” said Fairchild. Ever the optimist, Coach Fair backed his words up with results in his first season with the Rams last year, winning a bowl game after inheriting a 3-win squad. Yes, the foundation is in place. As the team media guide says, ‘Why not Colorado State?”
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Nevada
NEW MEXICO – *6/3
Team Theme – ROCKY ROAD
The new slogan in Albuquerque says it all, “New Era, New Energy, New Mexico.” Out, after 11 years as head coach, is Rocky Long (65-69). In is new blood Mike Locksley, the offensive coordinator at Illinois the last four years. Locksley brings 17 years of coaching experience and he’ll need to rely on all of it. That’s because he takes over a team that was just saddled with a 3-year NCAA probation, resulting in 5 lost scholarships each year. Amazingly, the Lobos have been the only team in the country with a 1000-yard rusher every year since 2002. The bad news is that none of last year’s starting running backs return. QB Donovan Porterie is back but, he started only 4 games before being sidelined with injuries last year. With just about everything new this year, the Lobos are, indeed, starting over.
PASS
SAN DIEGO ST – *8/7
Team Theme – BRADY’S LEAP
After spending cold winter months in Muncie, Indiana the past six years, Brady Hoke decided it was time for a change of scenery. Like Jed Clampett, he packed up the family and headed to the hills, of scenic San Diego. He has relieved Chuck Long of his coaching duties with the Aztecs, where a failed three-year experiment resulted in a 9-27 effort. The truth be known, Hoke’s flight to sunny San Diego was mostly due to the departure of QB Nate Davis, who improved on the Cardinals’ record in each of his 4 years as the signal caller at Ball State. Hoke will turn to SO QB Ryan Lindley who started 11 games and finished No. 24 in the country in passing average last year. Remember, it took Hoke four years to turn the Cardinals into a winning team. He should have a nice tan when it finally happens here.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. UCLA (9/5)
TCU – *6 / 4
Team Theme – TWO LEGS UP
When you are able to hold 10 opponents to season-low yardage marks, don’t be surprised if you lead the nation in total team defense. That’s the reason why 10 of 11 TCU starters landed a spot on the All-MWC team in 2008. It didn’t stop there, either. Last year’s offense established a school record for points scored and TD’s. It’s been quite a run for the Frogs under head coach Gary Patterson. TCU has enjoyed five 10-win seasons in the last seven years. In fact, the Horned Frogs’ 26-13 record on the road over the last six years is better than Florida and Oklahoma. It’s where TCU handed the Sooners their only home loss since 2002. In closing, keep this thought in mind: The Frogs are 30-2 in games when they hold foes to less than 333 yards. Both of the losses were versus Utah.
PLAY ON: vs. Utah (11/14)
UNLV – *6 / 8
Team Theme – REBELS WITH A CAUSE
Here’s head coach Mike Sanford’s take on last season… “The victories at Arizona State and against Iowa State were tremendous. Then we had a very disappointing and frustrating loss at the end of the season (San Diego State). We had an opportunity to do a lot more in 2008, but fell short. It serves as a motivating factor. Now we have to get it done.” While the Rebels just missed bowl-eligibility with a sobering loss to the Aztecs, they did snap a three-year run of 2-victory seasons in 2008. When he was hired at UNLV, Sanford’s “To Do” list included: a winning record, a bowl game and a league title. Behind an offense that tied Ohio State as tops in the land in red-zone scoring efficiency last year and with seven home games on the slate, we believe his wish list will be shortened this season.
PLAY ON: vs. San Diego State (11/28)
UTAH – 4 / 7
Team Theme – RINSE CYCLE
Some said the Utes were out of their element - their league! Because there is no playoff system, all they ended up being out of was a No. 1 ranking. Despite its brilliant 13-0 season, Utah was hung out and left to dry. It’s time for the NCAA to wake up and smell the coffee! This year the Utes’ offense faces the daunting task of replacing the MWC Player of the Year at QB, three wide receivers, the starting RB, two starting OL, the OC and the OL coach. Then again, the WR position is loaded with talent and game experience, the 2nd-string RB led the team in rushing last year and three of the best O-linemen in the conference return. QB Corbin Louks played in 19 games the past two seasons and appears ready to take the reins. Choose your spin.
PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. UNLV (10/17)
WYOMING – 7 / 8
Team Theme – GO WITH THE FLOW
In the end, it all came down to Joe Glenn’s inability to win conference games. After a decent start with the Cowboys, Glenn bottomed out like Liquid Drano, going 9-27 in his last four and a half years, including a clog-busting 1-18-1 ATS the final twenty games. Enter Dave Christensen, the offensive coordinator at Missouri the last eight years. “He’s going to take that program to levels it’s never seen,” said Chase Daniel, former Tiger QB. “What he’s going to bring is an offense that’s just insane.” To which Christensen said, “I can’t tell you how excited I am to be given the opportunity to lead the Wyoming football program. The opportunity to be a head coach is something I’ve been preparing for my entire life. I know we will win here.” We don’t doubt for a minute that Dave will have the victories flowing in short order.
PASS
Mountain West belongs with the big boys in college football
By Ben Burns.
The last time we heard from the Mountain West, Utah was dismantling Alabama as 14-point underdogs in the Sugar Bowl.
The upset capped the Utes’ second undefeated season in the last five years and gave the MWC ammunition to make its case to be included in the BCS.
The BCS pushed aside the Mountain West like it was the WAC.
Don’t make that same mistake by underestimating teams from by far the most underrated conference in college football.
The MWC was an impressive 28-13 in non-conference games last season, including 6-1 against the Pac-10.
Why will this year be any different?
TCU, BYU and Utah remain at the top of the pack, with Air Force and UNLV a notch below. San Diego State, with new coach Brady Hoke, could be the league’s most improved squad. Colorado State lost a lot and should struggle to build off last year’s success. Wyoming and New Mexico are bringing up the rear. They both could stink.
BYU was a trendy BCS pick last year, but it was Utah, which blossomed into the No. 2 team in the country.
That’s probably not going to happen again this year, but, if it does, it could be just the kind of event to finally force the BCS into some change.
Projected Finish (against the spread - ATS - records are from last three seasons)
TCU Horned Frogs
ATS: 22-13-1 (Home: 13-3. Away: 7-9-2)
Thing to remember: The Horned Frogs own the best ATS record in conference play, going 21-9-2 against the number the last four years.
BYU Cougars
ATS: 19-17-1 (Home: 10-6. Away: 8-9-1)
Thing to remember: The Cougars boast the league’s top quarterback in senior Max Hall. But there are question marks about an offensive line with only one returning starter.
Utah Utes
ATS: 22-14-1 (Home: 10-5-1. Away: 10-8)
Thing to remember: The Utes head into August with three quarterbacks vying to be the starter. Junior Corbin Louks seems to be the favorite, but it will be hard to keep Terrance Cain, the National JUCO Player of the Year, off the field.
Since Kyle Whittingham has been at Utah, including the two seasons he was Urban Meyer’s top assistant, the Utes are an astounding 50-26 against the spread.
UNLV Rebels
ATS: 16-18-1 (Home: 10-8. Away: 6-11-1)
Thing to remember: UNLV has a favorable schedule with seven home games. The Rebels are 11-5 ATS as home dogs during coach Mike Sanford’s tenure.
Air Force Falcons
ATS: 20-16 (Home: 9-7. Away: 10-7)
Thing to remember: Coach Troy Calhoun is attempting to jumpstart his offense by moving sophomore Asher Clark to quarterback. Clark played quarterback in high school and was the Falcons’ second leading rusher as a freshman last year.
San Diego State Aztecs
ATS: 17-18 (Home: 9-6. Away: 6-12)
Thing to remember: It took a while for Brady Hoke to turn things around at Ball State. In fact, he suffered losing seasons in his first two years.
But he arrives at San Diego State at a good time. He inherits a team returning 15 starters, including talented quarterback Ryan Lindley.
The Aztecs took their licks last year, including an embarrassing 70-7 loss to New Mexico. So they quickly hired the Lobos’ coach to be their defensive coordinator. New Mexico is at San Diego State on Halloween night. Keep an eye on that game as a possible big blowout.
Colorado State Rams
ATS: 16-18 (Home: 8-6. Away: 6-10)
Thing to remember: The Rams are a much different squad then the one that looked very good in beating Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl. Quarterback Billy Farris and running back Gartrell Johnson are both gone. And second-year coach Steve Fairchild has only five returning starters on defense.
Wyoming Cowboys
ATS: 10-24-1 (Home: 6-11-1. Away: 4-13)
Thing to remember: New head coach Dave Christensen is installing an uptempo, no-huddle spread offense. Perfect for the wintery conditions up in Laramie.
This has disaster written all over it. But can it get any worse for the Cowboys, who are 4-18-1 ATS the past two seasons? They’ve covered in just one of their last 15 conference games.
New Mexico Lobos
ATS: 18-7-1 (Home: 11-7-1. Away: 6-10)
Thing to remember: Longtime coach Rocky Long wouldn’t bolt to become a defensive coordinator at San Diego State if the Lobos had anything coming back.
A conference low nine starters return on a team that could be this year’s whipping boy in the MWC.
Mountain West Preview
By Matt Fargo
It is tough for a non-BCS conference to compete with the big boys but don’t tell that to the Mountain West Conference. It can in fact compete but it just does not get the respect it deserves. Utah was the only undefeated team in the nation last season following a shellacking of Alabama in the Sugar Bowl but Florida was given the National Championship. In my opinion, the Utes were the true champs and this conference has nowhere to go but up. It will be another great season for the MWC and don’t be surprised so see another Cinderella this season.
TCU Horned Frogs 11-2 SU, 8-4 ATS, 5-7 O/U
Summary: TCU could be wearing that Cinderella slipper come January. The Horned Frogs are loaded once again and they have the inside track to the MWC Championship because they have Utah at home this season. The defense was ranked the best in the country last season and it will be right near the top again despite needing to replace six starters. The offense is usually pushed to the side because of that defense but a strong offensive line along with a duel-threat at quarterback is going to make this unit very tough.
Schedule: As mentioned, getting Utah at home is a huge bonus. Last season, the Horned Frogs had to play at Oklahoma but this season it will have two tough road tests at Clemson and at Virginia. Playing at Air Force and at BYU during conference action will be tough challenges but ones they will have to take care of.
Bottom Line: It is not impossible for TCU to go undefeated this season but it is probably a stretch to predict that. Those four road games are all extremely tough and if they can somehow wins all of those, the Horned Frogs will deserve a shot at the top. However that is a long way off but we will say they are going to be the team to beat in the MWC.
Betting Forecast: TCU is 21-9-2 ATS in the MWC over the last four years and 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as a double-digit chalk so it is not scared of big numbers.
Utah Utes 13-0 SU, 8-3-1 ATS, 10-2 O/U
Summary: Utah completed its second undefeated season in the last five years while also taking its second BCS bowl game over that span as it ripped Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. A repeat of last season is unlikely but the Utes are not going down without a fight. The big questions this season revolve around the offense as a replacement needs to be found for MWC Offensive Player of the Year Brian Johnson. Also, the top three receivers are gone as is two-fifths of the offensive line. Defensively, the Utes finished 11th in total defense and the unit will be strong once again led by defensive end Koa Misi.
Schedule: Utah benefited from a relatively easy schedule last season and the non-conference portion this year is manageable. The two tough games are at Oregon and at home against Louisville in back-to-back weeks. The MWC slate will be more difficult as Utah has to travel to both TCU and BYU in two of the last three weeks of the year.
Bottom Line: The Utes will be in the hunt for another MWC Championship but they will need to take care of business on the road. A seventh straight bowl game is in the cards and it will come down to the play of the rebuilt offense that will determine what sort of bowl game they will be taking part in. Utah finished 10th in turnover margin last year and it will need a similar outcome.
Betting Forecast: 10 of the 12 lined games last season went ‘Over’ last year but a reversal of that should happen so look for some goods value plays on the ‘Under’.
BYU Cougars 10-3 SU, 3-8 ATS, 6-5 O/U
Summary: Once again, BYU is on the outside looking in but there is a very good possibility that the Cougars could win the MWC. Last year, they lost twice during the regular season and both of those losses were on the road at TCU and Utah. BYU will be looking to avenge both of those setbacks and it will need to do so by stiffening up its defense which finished 59th in the country last season. All of the playmakers are back on offense including the best quarterback in the conference in Max Hall. The problem is that only one starter from the offensive line returns and that is a problem with the early schedule.
Schedule: The year starts out with a neutral site game against Oklahoma and following a game at Tulane, the Cougars host Florida St. BYU hits a stretch in October and November where it plays four of five games on the road but none of those contests are difficult. After traveling to TCU and Utah last year, BYU gets both at home this season.
Bottom Line: BYU has never won 10 games in a season for four straight years but that is the goal this season. The Cougars have the talent and the schedule setup to make a run at the MWC title but it cannot get down if it loses to both Oklahoma and Florida St. Another goal is to play a bowl game outside of Sin City as it has played in the Las Vegas Bowl the last four postseasons.
Betting Forecast: The Cougars are only 2-6 ATS in non-conference games the last two seasons so tread lightly in those games against the Sooners and Seminoles.
Air Force Falcons 8-5 SU, 7-5 ATS, 7-5 O/U
Summary: After back-to-back rough seasons in 2005 and 2006, the Falcons have put up a 17-9 combined record the last two years. That is the best two-year record since 1998-99 when the combined for 18 victories. Air Force will look to keep the winning going behind the running game as it does every season. The Falcons finished sixth in the nation in rushing 2008 and they get back six of their top seven rushers. The offensive line will feature five senior starters. The defense allowed 38.7 ppg in the final three games last year after allowing just 17.3 ppg through the first 10 games. There is enough back to match that early season performance from last year.
Schedule: The schedule is far from challenging with a road game at Minnesota being the biggest non-conference test. Games against Army and Navy as well as Nichols St. round out the out of conference slate. It will be tough to make a run at the MWC title with two of the three games against the ‘Big Three’ taking place on the road.
Bottom Line: The schedule is easy enough for Air Force to continue its turnaround but the program is still some time away from competing for the conference championship. The secondary will determine how far the Falcons go as it has been a weakness for years and competing in the MWC, it is even more of a priority to perform. A third straight bowl game is the goal.
Betting Forecast: The Falcons are 12-4 ATS in the conference the last two season as they snuck up on teams. That won’t be the case again in 2009.
UNLV Runnin’ Rebels 5-7 SU, 6-5-1 ATS, 8-4 O/U
Summary: UNLV has not had a winning season since 2000 but the streak could come to an end this season. The Rebels were one win away from being bowl eligible last season and there is enough talent coming back to finally turn the corner. This is head coach Mike Sanford’s fifth season so if it does not happen this season, he won’t be back to give it another go in 2010. Omar Clayton emerged as a dependable quarterback as he tossed 18 touchdowns along with only four interceptions before his season was cut short because of a knee injury. The running game should improve but it is up to the defense to see how far this team can go.
Schedule: The Rebels have seven home games again this year and they will have to take advantage. UNLV has gone 3-26 outside of Sam Boyd Stadium the last five years and with games at Nevada, TCU and Air Force, it will be another challenge. The Rebels do get BYU and Utah at home and in non-conference action, they host Oregon St. and Hawaii.
Bottom Line: The defense finished 103rd overall so there is a lot of work to do. The offense will have the potency to outscore some opponents but it cannot count on that every game. Stopping the run will be priority one and running the ball on offense is not far behind as the Rebels finished 91st last season in rushing offense. The Rebels have never lost a bowl game but have only played in three in school history.
Betting Forecast: The Rebels are 11-5 ATS as home underdogs under Sanford and they will see more opportunities this season and that success should continue.
Colorado St. Rams 7-6 SU, 7-5 ATS, 7-5 O/U
Summary: Hard times had fallen on the Colorado St. program but head coach Steve Fairchild did a wonderful job in his first year as he led the Rams to a winning season including a bowl victory over Fresno St. They will likely take a step back this season however as the offense needs to replace the two top running backs as well as the quarterback and the defensive front seven has only two returnees on a unit that finished 96th in total defense. They also recorded a national low nine quarterback sacks. For a team that fell so far so quickly after years of success, it takes time to come back and while the pieces are there for the future, the future isn’t quite here yet.
Schedule: The non-conference schedule includes a home game against Weber St. but it starts out with its rivalry game against Colorado and also includes a game against Nevada. As for the MWC portion, the first three conference games are against BYU, Utah and TCU with only the game against the Utes being at home so the Rams could be looking at a 0-3 start right from the gate.
Bottom Line: I was a doubter last season when Fairchild came in but he proved me and plenty others wrong as Colorado St. exceeded expectations. Now the goal is to continue to keep building the program back up but that will be tough this year as inexperience in key areas will be exploited by other teams. The team is positive and it can feed off last year’s success but it will likely be a slight dropoff in 2009.
Betting Forecast: The Rams went 4-0 ATS as a home underdog last season and we could see two opportunities in that role this year (Nevada and Utah).
San Diego St. Aztecs 2-10 SU, 5-6 ATS, 6-5 O/U
Summary: The Aztecs could be the most improved team in the MWC but that does not mean it will be competing for a conference championship anytime soon. Chuck Long was supposed to turn this team around but he actually drove it into the ground and now it will be up to former Ball St. head coach Brady Hoke to pick up the pieces. The offense returns nine starters and it will need to find a way to run the ball better. As for the defense, it will need to be able to stop the run and the addition of former New Mexico head coach Rocky Long as defensive coordinator should help matters right away. It will be up to Hoke to instill a winning attitude that has not been here since 1998, its last season with a winning record.
Schedule: The Aztecs start the season with a game at UCLA but the remainder of the non-conference slate gets easier with games against Southern Utah, Idaho and New Mexico St. San Diego St. has a stretch where in plays five of six games at home including contests against BYU and TCU. A winning season could be decided in the final game of the year at UNLV, a team they have defeated each of the last three years.
Bottom Line: San Diego St. has never been short on talent but Long, and Tom Craft before him, simply have not got the job done. Hoke is regarded as one of the best young coaches in the country and he should be able to move the Aztecs the right way. Whether it happens this season or not is debatable but San Diego St. has no where to go but up and a winning season is far from impossible
Betting Forecast: San Diego St. went 1-5 ATS under Long when coming off a win. Under Hoke, Ball St. went 18-9 ATS his last four years. You do the math.
Wyoming Cowboys 4-8 SU, 2-9 ATS, 4-7 O/U
Summary: Wyoming has had only one winning season since 1994 and it will be up to Dave Christensen to turn the Cowboys into a winner. Christensen was the offensive coordinator under Gary Pinkel at Toledo and Missouri and he has had enormous success in that role. It will take some time to get Wyoming going in the new spread offense as the talent simply is not there yet. The Cowboys were the lowest scoring team in the nation last year, averaging just 12.7 ppg and they were held to a touchdown or fewer five times. An improvement in that average is likely but we will wait and see how much improvement there actually is. The defense was solid at times last year and will be the strength again.
Schedule: The schedule is far from easy but it isn’t overly difficult from top to bottom. Non-conference games against Texas and Colorado will be losses but Christensen did come from the Big XII so he has some knowledge in that regard. Four of the final six games are on the road and the two home games over that span are against BYU and TCU so a 0-6 finish is quite possible.
Bottom Line: It is going to take a while for the spread offense to take shape in Laramie but a new start and a new system is exactly what this program needed. Matching the four wins from last season probably is not going to happen but that does not mean the Cowboys have taken a step back. It simply means a change for the good is taking place now to provide dividends in the future.
Betting Forecast: Wyoming went just 2-9 ATS last season but it could turn that around because of the new system as teams will have a hard time preparing.
New Mexico Lobos 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS, 5-7 O/U
Summary: It is officially rebuilding time in New Mexico. After years of success under head coach Rocky Long, the Lobos fell to 4-8 last season and with Long stepping down and only nine total starters coming back, it could be a very long season in Albuquerque. The new head coach is Mike Locksley who like Christensen at Wyoming, is bringing in a brand new system. Locksley was the offensive coordinator under Ron Zook the last six seasons and he is implementing a no huddle, spread offense but like any drastic change like this, it will take time to get established. The defense took a small step backwards last year and this year, only three starters return so it could go down even more before coming back up.
Schedule: The schedule doesn’t do the Lobos any favors. They play at Texas A&M and at Texas Tech while hosting Tulsa during the non-conference segment. The MWC piece is better but it is bottom heavy as three of the final four games are against Utah, BYU and TCU with the game against the Cougars being the lone home game.
Bottom Line: Change can be good and changes are being made on both sides of the ball. Besides the offense going up tempo, the defense is moving to a 4-3 scheme from the previous 3-3-5 under Long. These alterations will take a while to find their niche but at the same time, teams will have a tough time in preparing for the new look Lobos. That does not translate into wins however but it does provide hope going forward.
Betting Forecast: It will be hard to predict how the Lobos will perform at the betting window with so much change taking place. Watch and wait.