iowa +12.5
30/27
notre dame -3
40/34
17-11 and +$150 ytd. balance = $650.00
ucla still playing, and it is not looking good for me. i will update accordingly after that game.
i like oakland -3 tomm night.
raiders -3
30/27
I'm starting to really enjoy your posts. I like your approach and your record keeping. Good luck today
I'm starting to really enjoy your posts. I like your approach and your record keeping. Good luck today
thank you. hope i can kick it up a bit and start making some money.
17-13 and +$90 ytd. balance = $590.00
nfl is killing me. i will just lay off mnf and start working on ncaa this week. i like the over 47 tonight, but no bet. the way i have been sucking it up at nfl so far, a play on the under might be wise. 😆
I am confused on how you folks make your picks. I mean you do not seem too concerned with line and isnt line the only way to make anything? I mean all the "better D" and "good against the run" stuff is already built into the line. My only goal is to beat the line is that wrong ????
the line is made to get an equal amount of money on both sides, with the man taking his 10% of all bets. people bet on a certain team for many reasons, with the stat comparisons you mentioned being among the least. if notre dame is playing northern illinois, many will bet notre dame just because it is notre dame, without even looking at the matchups. many will bet notre dame because it is their favorite team, and they have a huge fanbase compared to niu. some may bet notre dame just because they beat down a passing team last week on national tv, without even looking at the power running team they are playing this week against their weak run d. just using nd as an example. not saying they have a weak run d. point is, people bet for many reasons. the line is set to get even $ on both sides. a good book rarely gambles, but is content with 10% of everything.
the line is made to get an equal amount of money on both sides, with the man taking his 10% of all bets. people bet on a certain team for many reasons, with the stat comparisons you mentioned being among the least. if notre dame is playing northern illinois, many will bet notre dame just because it is notre dame, without even looking at the matchups. many will bet notre dame because it is their favorite team, and they have a huge fanbase compared to niu. some may bet notre dame just because they beat down a passing team last week on national tv, without even looking at the power running team they are playing this week against their weak run d. just using nd as an example. not saying they have a weak run d. point is, people bet for many reasons. the line is set to get even $ on both sides. a good book rarely gambles, but is content with 10% of everything.
so yes, we try to beat the line. i do it by looking at matchups and such and trying to determine what will happen in a game. i actually use a system to cap a game and make my own line using the factors i feel are most important. then i compare it to the books line.
Hey Dan Shan Stats r great but bullshit, you read them till your blue in the face, and they can make u change ur mind a thousand times on 1 game, you need to watch % of bets, opening line,. and line movement, in the wrong direction, also the services r not your friend, these guys do not have your interest at heart, and when a group of them r all on the same game, for the most part it will be a loser
the line is made to get an equal amount of money on both sides, with the man taking his 10% of all bets. people bet on a certain team for many reasons, with the stat comparisons you mentioned being among the least. if notre dame is playing northern illinois, many will bet notre dame just because it is notre dame, without even looking at the matchups. many will bet notre dame because it is their favorite team, and they have a huge fanbase compared to niu. some may bet notre dame just because they beat down a passing team last week on national tv, without even looking at the power running team they are playing this week against their weak run d. just using nd as an example. not saying they have a weak run d. point is, people bet for many reasons. the line is set to get even $ on both sides. a good book rarely gambles, but is content with 10% of everything.
so yes, we try to beat the line. i do it by looking at matchups and such and trying to determine what will happen in a game. i actually use a system to cap a game and make my own line using the factors i feel are most important. then i compare it to the books line.
now this makes sense , make your own line and beat the closer and you win, handicapping is already done on 90% of games, but the line you create is not based on hype its based on facts that can be proven with stats that make sense. If you beat the closing line you win period. houses dont sell half points for nothing, those free half or 1 or 2 or 3 points have true value
here is my first two weeks so far. I know this could be BS but my play is to beat the lines and I base my win% on the vig free line with my roi determined by win % against amount won
and here is next weeks already done and bet
Date, League, Team, My Line, bet at
9/28 NFL Packers -8.5 -7.5
10/1 NFL Jets +3 +3.5
10/1 NFL Ravens +2.5 +3
10/1 NFL Bills +7 +8
10/1 NFL Bucs -4.5 -3
10/1 NFL Eagles -1 1
10/1 NFL Indy +14.5 +13
9/28 NCAAF Utah State -1.5 3.5
9/30 NCAAF Pittsburgh -24 -20
9/30 NCAAF East Carolina 18.5 24
9/30 NCAAF Kentucky -15.5 -14
9/30 NCAAF Bowling Green -3 3
9/30 NCAAF Wisconsin -16.5 -14.5
9/30 NCAAF LSU -24 -19.5
9/30 NCAAF Miss State 5.5 9.5
9/30 NCAAF VA Tech 6 7.5
and here is next weeks already done and bet
Date, League, Team, My Line, bet at
9/28 NFL Packers -8.5 -7.5
10/1 NFL Jets +3 +3.5
10/1 NFL Ravens +2.5 +3
10/1 NFL Bills +7 +8
10/1 NFL Bucs -4.5 -3
10/1 NFL Eagles -1 1
10/1 NFL Indy +14.5 +139/28 NCAAF Utah State -1.5 3.5
9/30 NCAAF Pittsburgh -24 -20
9/30 NCAAF East Carolina 18.5 24
9/30 NCAAF Kentucky -15.5 -14
9/30 NCAAF Bowling Green -3 3
9/30 NCAAF Wisconsin -16.5 -14.5
9/30 NCAAF LSU -24 -19.5
9/30 NCAAF Miss State 5.5 9.5
9/30 NCAAF VA Tech 6 7.5
good luck. i have noticed a lot of people on utah state. gonna have to look at that one close.
if you check the pinny lines you will see the lines already moving my way, hope its a good week!
17-13 and +$90 ytd. balance = $590.00
nfl is killing me. i will just lay off mnf and start working on ncaa this week. i like the over 47 tonight, but no bet. the way i have been sucking it up at nfl so far, a play on the under might be wise. 😆
man i was liking iowa state. it is all the way down to 4 now, and i think i have to go the other way. seems like the value is with the horns.
texas -4
30/27