NBA vs. Super Bowl Props
By Kevin Rogers
Super Bowl XLIV is slowly approaching as the betting windows will be busy over the next few days. Of course there's plenty more to bet on past the side and total between the Saints and Colts. There's even more when you sort through individual player props and how many field goals will be kicked in the game. The cross-sport props make things extra fun for gamblers, as two events are tied into the bet, but studying hard can make you some side cash this weekend. Let's take a look at a handful of cross-sport props involving the NBA, courtesy of our friends at Sportsbook.com.
Colts' points (-3 ½) vs. Kobe Bryant points vs. Blazers on 2/6
Saints' points (+1 ½) vs. Kobe Bryant points vs. Blazers on 2/6
We'll knock two birds out with one stone here. Bryant is beat-up right now, with several broken fingers on his shooting hand and a sprained ankle. The Lakers travel to Portland on Saturday night, as Bryant is coming off a five-point performance against the Bobcats on Wednesday. In Kobe's last 14 games, the Lakers' all-time leading scorer has tallied 30 points or less on 11 occasions.
The Colts and Saints rank near the top of the NFL in points scored, and neither defense is particularly strong. Indianapolis put up at least 27 points in 11 games, while New Orleans scored over 27 points in 13 contests.
There's never any doubt that Bryant will give all his effort, but his body is not close to 100%. With the grind of the NBA season and the Lakers pretty much in control of the West, Bryant may not be playing as many minutes, thus his scoring numbers may decrease. Also, the Lakers will be playing the second end of a back-to-back following Friday's game against Denver.
I'll 'fade' Bryant in this spot and take each of the Super Bowl teams to outscore the Lakers' star.
Saints/Colts combined points (+1 ½) vs. LeBron James/Kobe Bryant points on 2/6
Pretty much the same rationale applies for this prop, as we add the league's reigning MVP. James and the Cavs host the Knicks on Saturday night, as the King is averaging 27.5 points/game his last eight at home. LeBron usually saves his best games for the Knicks, but that's when they play at Madison Square Garden, and this contest is in Cleveland.
The Saints have played in eight games with a combined total of 59 points or more, and even though the Colts haven't been involved in as many high-scoring contests as New Orleans, that goes to Indianapolis' competition.
The Cavs will likely be favored by double-digits, as Cleveland is expected to roll New York. That may mean a cutback of minutes for James down the stretch. We're assuming if James and Bryant each equal their scoring average, it would be a combined 60 points. If the two stars finish with 50 or even 55 points, it's not asking much for New Orleans and Indianapolis to put together more points than James and Bryant.
Peyton Manning's longest completion (-8 ½) vs. Kevin Durant points vs. GS on 2/6
The beauty of this prop is you have the entire game to cash if you lay the number with Manning. From the opening kickoff until the final whistle, Manning can connect on a pass of any yardage. On the flip side with Durant, the Thunder star won't likely score 50 or 60 points, even if Oklahoma City went overtime with Golden State.
To be safe, let's assume Durant puts up 40 points (he has done so four times this season). Manning would need at least a 49-yard completion in this scenario to cash this prop. The Saints have allowed seven passing plays of at least 49 yards this season, including four that went over 60 yards.
Manning connected with his receivers on twelve plays of at least 35 yards this season, and six plays of at least 48 yards. In Indianapolis' Super Bowl XLII victory over Chicago, Manning and Reggie Wayne hooked up for a 53-yard touchdown strike.
Durant lit up the Warriors last Sunday night for a season-high 45 points, but is averaging 28 ppg in four career games at Oracle Arena in Oakland. The 40-point threshold is almost worst-case scenario, as Durant is likely going to finish in the low-30 range against Golden State.
Facing a defense that has allowed plenty of big plays with the game's best quarterback at the helm makes the play on Manning very enticing.
Kings/Raptors first quarter points (+3 ½) vs. Pierre Garcon receiving yards
Sacramento and Toronto play one of the two Sunday games in the NBA prior to the Super Bowl, as the Raptors and Kings tip off at 12:30 PM EST. This will be the first of three road games for Sacramento, so the early tip may be a factor for a sluggish start.
Both these teams have averaged at least 50 points in the first quarter in their respective home/away roles. Toronto has averaged 51.4 ppg in the first quarter of the last 13 home games, while Sacramento is averaging 50 ppg in the opening quarter of the previous eight road contests.
In Toronto's four early tip-offs at home this season, the average points tallied in the first quarter is 48.7 ppg. Both these defenses aren't exactly stellar, allowing 105 ppg. While the entire game is irrelevant to this bet, it still shows how up-and-down these teams can go in the first quarter.
Garcon is coming off a record-breaking 11 catches in the AFC Championship victory over the Jets, while racking up 151 yards. However, Garcon has only nine games over 50 yards this season. That's important since it's likely the Kings and Raptors will combine for between 50 and 55 points in the first quarter on Sunday. Garcon has the ability to make big plays, but he is also one of four major threats (Wayne, Dallas Clark, and Austin Collie) that Manning has at his disposal.
I'll take the Kings and Raptors to tally the points in the first quarter, while outdoing Garcon's receiving yardage.
Chris Bosh free throws made (- ½) vs. total touchdowns between Colts and Saints
The Raptors' star ranks sixth in the league in free throws made per game with 6.9. Bosh has been a bit inconsistent with his trips to the line recently, making seven or more free throws only three times the last 11 games. The good thing is if Bosh gets to the line, he'll likely sink the foul shots, converting nearly 79% of the time.
In the 18 games Indianapolis has played, there has been an average of 5.05 touchdowns/game combined. Only three times have the Colts and their opponent totaled eight or more touchdowns.
The Saints started the season on fire with plenty of touchdowns - offensive, defensive, and special teams. New Orleans and its opponents combined to score an average of 7.7 touchdowns the first seven games of the season. However, the last 11 games have seen a significant drop in that department, sinking to 5.8 touchdowns a contest.
Bosh's best free throw numbers come in Sunday's situation against Sacramento. The Kings are struggling mightily as they sit well below .500. When Bosh and the Raptors face a team that is under .500, the All-Star forward averages 7.5 makes from the foul line. In eight day games, Bosh is averaging eight made free throws a game.
I'll side with Bosh on this prop to drill more free throws than combined touchdowns between Indianapolis and New Orleans.
For more cross-sport props, including college basketball, NHL, golf, and soccer, check out Sportsbook.com.
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