NCAA 2010 Over/Under plays

Last week 4-1
13-6 overall, 6-4 on Over, 7-2 Under.

I dug up previous year's #'s on this (Under) system, all were shared on the 'net, dated and time stamped:
16-5 in the 2nd half of '07 (I didn't discover this system until midway point of the season)
38-16 in '08 (2 year record 54-21, 72%)
21-20 last season (Four losses were 'capped correctly as the game was Under at end of regulation, but went over in OT)
Overall 75-41, 65%

As noted above, this is a system I have for NCAA Unders. I track and post Overs also, but don't always buy them. Last week Unders swept here at 3-0, Overs split 1-1.

Today's spots:
BYU/Fl St Un 60
Troy/Al Birm Un 58'

Other spots:
N Ill/ Ill Ov 45'
Iowa St/K St 51
Ball St/Purdue Ov 47'
Iowa/Az Ov 45'

Today, I'll buy the two Unders only. The value is gone in some of the Overs due to line moves, and Overs as I said are not as strong %-wise, so I post them for info/tracking purposes only, in case anyone is looking at those games.

Record, my plays at The Spread, 4-1.

Good luck with your play today . . .

Sonny

First time in four years of working this set of parameters that not one game fits.
A full college card and not a single play - sh*t/f*ck, this sux!
Split last week with the 2 Unders I bought (Overs split also)
Record at the Spread now 5-2.

Good luck with your play this week . . .

SP

Got three Under system spots this week, and one on the Over.

Fla Int/Pit Ov 49'
E Car/NC Un 58
Wyoming/Tol Un 49'
Stan/Ore Un 65'

Records for this year and last three years on these plays are posted above, as well as my record picking and choosing which spots to buy this year at TS.

This week, I'll buy the three Unders only, the Over is listed for tracking purposes and FYI in case anyone is looking for an op on that game.

Don't like the Stan/Ore play much, they almost reached 100 last year, and every OU game has gone Over this season - they avg. almost this games total all by themselves!
Still, experience tells me that sometimes, the ones that look the worst . . .

I have not bought any of these yet as I expect lines will move in my favor. Will monitor action and post an update with final numbers after I buy, posted now for info only.

Good luck with your play tomorrow . . .

Good stuff, thanks for posting, please keep it up. When we all contribute we all win.

Betting Oregon under is a scary proposition, watching them and having the under is not something I would want to be sweating.

Blade, re: "not want to be sweating" - here's one of the keys I found, for successful betting AND healthy living in general - DON'T watch college sports bets!
Especially basketball.
Having an Under in a game where A) a team is down by 25 points B) there are five seconds left C) the game is 4 points under your number & D) you lose because the team that is down by 25 hits a three pointer, then their coach calls a timeout after which he has them immediately intentionally foul the other team with two seconds left (they hit both FT's of course) as if he has a play in his playbook that is good for 25+ points. After the game, when asked why he would do such a moronic thing in an absolutely impossible situation, he lamely states "I want to teach my boys to never give up, never surrender!" Yeah, right. Way to motivate, General Patton.

My friends say I will be found dead of a heart attack in front of my TV some day, and that the investigating officer will backtrack the estimated time of death, match it to the exact time my neighbors say they heard me yelling curses; and a check of the channel that my TV was on when they found me will reveal I was watching college hoops.
But . . . that's the fun of sports betting. I think.

Anyway . . .

We (not the royal 'we', but me and anyone following along) made the right call on waiting to buy last night - the line on all three games has gone up a point to a point and a half.
I'll wait a little longer, especially on that Oregon game, as said above I don't like it either.

As I die hard Duck fan I can't wait to see today's Gameday show from Eugene, they will be going crazy.

I hope to watch that one, too, not sure of TV coverage here though, visiting family in NJ for the weekend.

I just grabbed the 66' as I see the screen is split 3 ways between that, 66 and 65' now on Cardinal/Ducks. Anyone who likes the Un should buy now.

I see 58' on Carolina battle and 50 on Wyo/Tol, will continue to monitor, wait a little longer.

May not be able to get back in with final #'s on buys, if not, I'll say it now - good luck on your plays today.

UPDATE: 61 readily available for Carolina battle, bought in at that #, also grabbed the 50 on the final game.

Three of four listed plays win last week, and I hit two of the three I played.

The one I didn't buy, Fla.Int/Pit Over was an easy W.
Of the three I bought and recommended Wyoming/Tol was a comfortable W, EC/NC was a close W and Stan/Oregon was trouble as expected and an L. The W in the Carolina battle was due to smart buying - I don't win every play, but I usually make smart buying decisions. Opener was 58' and I posted a "wait to buy" notice; the game landed on 59, a 1/2 point loss for early buyers, a 3 point win for those who waited and got Un 61. NC scored with about 30-something seconds left at the end of a drive in which they were trying to run out the clock - using every second of the play clock and running up the middle every play; EC knew it was coming but were so battered and bruised and tired they couldn't hold on the TD run; if they had I'm pretty sure NC would have taken the knee on the final play. No matter, we banked it.

As for Oregon, someone asked, "If you didn't like it why buy it?"
Answer: If I said at the start of the season "I have a play that has hit 67%" would you play it? Some would. And they key is to play them all; picking and choosing your spots leaves you open to increase the W %, but also decrease it. In the past, I have stayed off of plays I didn't like and gotten burned; have won some, too, but like I said, if the overall % is high enough, just play them. Like I posted above, sometimes, the ones that look the worst, come home as winners. The Ducks game never had a chance after two Q1 turnovers led to quick TD's, and set the pace for a fast game.

Anyhoot, I've hit seven of the ten plays I bought, so no problemo here.

Breakdown: 19-10 Ov 9-6, Un 10-4, me @ TS 7-3.

This week we have three, all Unders, I'll buy them, all but not yet. On the road the next 6-7 days, will post when/if I can:

Mizzo/Wisky Un 58
Mich St/Mich Un 64'
Ore// Wash St Un 70

Can't say I like any of them, but will stick with the %'s.

Good luck with your play this week . . .

4frogster - sorry I forgot to post this earlier: You're welcome, and thanks for posting the reply.

Correction on game above, should read Minn not Mizz (couldn't read my own handwriting in my play log).

No buys yet, but will buy all three games. Michigan battle is at 65 all over the board now, a few 65' too, should go a little higher.
Back on the road in about an hour so unable to post final numbers, monitor throughout the day and get the best you can.
Good luck with your play today . . .

OK, 2 of 3 plays listed here won last week, so we're chugging along at a nice pace.
Mich/Mich St was easy, slipped by with a 4 pt W in the Ducks game, missed with Minn/Wis (had a great pace at the half, at the end of 3 Q's we still had a 21 point cushion, but the rat bastards put up a 27 pt Q4.)

Overall record for this play is now 21-11, Overs 9-6, Unders 12-5.
My record at 'Da Spread 9-4.

Again, as noted in the first post in this thread, this is a system I have for playing Unders; I track and post Overs too, and occasionally buy them also, but Unders have the strongest history. This week, five plays fit the parameters I use:

Pit/Syr Ov 44
Idaho/LA Tech Un 56
Miss St/Fla Un 47
Tulane/Tulsa Ov 55'
Nev/Hou Un 74

I will buy all three Unders, but probably not the Overs. If I do buy an Over for my standard unit amount (as opposed to 'TV-rooting interest amount) I will update here with a 'buy notice." A look at my chart shows Pit was already in play as an Over once this season, and won, so it's on my radar. Fla, and Syr, were in play as Overs, and lost. Miss St was in an Under and won.
No buys yet, will wait and post #'s that I buy.

Good luck with your play this week . . .
Sonny

(Not a big 'movie guy' but saw "Adam Resurrected" last night; weird, but I'd recommend it. Goldblum and Dafoe were first rate.)

UPDATE: Idaho game climbed to 57 today, I hesitated hoping for a little more - mistake, now it's dropping like Moon's name for Page's new band. Grab the 56 if you can, a couple left; if you can't get it, it might be wise to wait and see if there is a buy back between now and kickoff.

UPDATE/Idaho-LA Tech: 56 is gone, # all the way down to 54; I got a better #, but as 54 is the common # I will use that for charting purposes. I bought Miss St/FLA Un 47' also, still waiting on Nevada/Hawaii as it continues to climb, already a point and a half over the opening number we waited on; right move there, wrong move waiting on Idaho.

UPDATE: Idaho game climbed to 57 today, I hesitated hoping for a little more - mistake, now it's dropping like Moon's name for Page's new band. Grab the 56 if you can, a couple left; if you can't get it, it might be wise to wait and see if there is a buy back between now and kickoff.

Blade or MC - I tried to post this as an update in the above post, wasn't seeking to bump via a reply and take up space on a day where we have other games; is there a time limit on edits?

OK, now the update shows up in the above post; mods, please delete this duplicate; thanks.

OK, four of the five plays listed here last week hit, and I hit two of the three plays bought, so we continue to chug along. Both Overs hit, easily. Under in Idaho game had no chance (missed by 30 pts), but we came back and hit the next two easily, with Fla and Nevada/Ha games (both staying Under by about 30.)

Overall record for this play is now 25-12, Overs 11-6, Unders 14-6.
My record at 'Da Spread now 11-5.

This week we have:
Fla.Atl/Ark St Ov 53
Wy/BYU Ov 44
U Conn/Louisville Un 56'
Okl/Mizzoo Ov 52'
AF/TCU Ov 48'

Can't say I like any of them. Wyoming avg'ing just 11 PPG thus far in 20101, and H2H doesn't look much better - they have been shutout in both of their last two meetings with BYU; four game H2H PPG avg. barely 4 points. Fla Atl not much better at scoring. As always, I will buy the Under (but not yet, I think we can get better than 56'). If I buy any of the Overs I will post it here.

Good luck with your play this week . . .
Sonny

Update: All the 56 are now gone from U Conn, I bought 56.

OK, another good week as we continue to chug along. Last week record was 3-1-1, 3-2, or 4-1 depending what # you got on Fla/Ark St (anyone buy it?)

Wy/BYU, Ok/Mizzoo came home as W's, A Force/TCU lost by a few points due to AF inability to score > 7 and not being able to get a gimme/late TD against soft D s they ended up on TCU 25 when time expired. Fla/Atl will be marked as a push here. I update on the games I buy/recommend, but not on all games listed. Fla Atl/Ark St was posted as 43 so that's the # used here. On Thur it dropped to 62/62' before going up to 63/64. By game time the number was 62 all across the board, so any late buyers got a W. I ended up watching it on JTV, so I had small $ on it at 62', so in my log book it goes in as a half point W. Only buy I made was the sole Under of the week, U Conn/Louis, and we got what I think was our third straight Under that stayed low by 30 or more.

Overall record of plays now 28-13, Overs 13-7, Unders 15-6.
My play at 'Da Spread now 12-5.

Was hoping to only have 1-2 plays this week, but we got five again, with four Unders this time:

Al Birm/S Miss Un 53'
Tulsa/N Dame Ov 62
Mich St/Iowa Un 50'
Cal/Ore St Un 53
Fla/Geo Un 47'

Can't say I like any of them, # looks low in Cal and Mich St games. Will buy all four Unders, not interested in the N Dame game.

Good luck with your play this week . . .
Sonny

Update - 2nd posting, having update problems, post them but they don't take? Anyway . . . my 'feel' for when to buy has been a little off lately, a few games have been hit by big $ and had a few line moves I didn't anticipate, not waiting any longer on this week's card, got UAB/S Miss at 54', Mich St/Iowa at 50', Cal/Or St at 53 & Fla/Geo at 48. Still think the Cal and Mich St games look low, but can't monitor screens for the next 20 hours or so, so I am buying this morning. Good luck with your play this weekend.