Listed plays went 2-3 last week, plays I bought went 2-2.
Strange week; of the 4 Unders I bought the two games that looked great at the half went Over, and the two I looked beaten on stayed Under. The game I didn't play,the Over in N Dame, looked like a winner at the end of Q3, but saw a dead Q4. Overs were at 14-7, 67% b4 that game and their 4 year history shows a lower % so I thought it was due to come down a bit.
Overall record of this play: 30-16, Overs 14-8, Unders 16-8. My record here at The Spread is now 14-7.
This week, only one okay, and it's an Over. I don't think there has ever been a season where there were two weeks that saw no games qualify for the Under, but this is our second time this year. Have LY's chart handy and just checked - had at least one play every weekend. Three games came close this week, hitting on about 98% of what it takes to qualify, but I don't "force" a play - it fits, or it doesn't, squeezing in plays that almost fit dilutes data. The one Over play is:
Louis/Syr Ov 44
I'm tempted to play this, but only because I have didn't get any of the plays I want - and that's no reason to buy it. It's all "gambling" but it "leans" toward investing if you stick with the higher percentages, so I'm off this week.
Good luck with your play this weekend . . .
Sonny
Only play listed here last week won as 21 first quarter points helped Syr/Louisville go Over; no play for me on it here.
Play record now 31-16, Over 15-8, Unders 16-8.
My record here at 'da Spread is 14-7.
This week four games fit parameters:
WF/NC St Un 57'
UTEP/Ark Un 60
Miss St/Ala Ov 47'
Utah St/SJ St Ov 52
I will play both Unders (waiting to buy; WF looks about right, but can we get a higher # on UTEP?)
Overs are fighting to stay with Unders, win %-wise, should be playing them, too, but I'll be damned if I'll trust SJ St in an Over, even against a D like Utah States.
'Bama game is tempting, will post if I add it.
Good luck with your play this weekend . . .
SP
UPDATE: By waiting I got a slight edge on both, just bought WF Un 58 and UTEP Un 60.' Sooo tempted to buy/recommend both Overs too, ('Bama at 46' now, Utah St 52') but I don't know, will probably have TV $ on them; will add via update if I change my mind and buy. Good luck with your play today . . .
My normal routine of capping and posting on Wed morn is interrupted this week as the Wed game between BG and Toledo qualifies as a play and I'm on it. So, to give an early notice and heads up to anyone following along I'm here in a day early.
Last week the listed plays got a split, as did the ones I bought:W Forest game was an easy winner, UTEP was over in the first quarter.
SJ St/Ark St was an easy Over, could have pulled off a 3-1 or at least a 2-1-1 but Bama, 2nd half, had 1st and goal from the one and settled for a FG (and Saban blamed his QB for takin a sack on 2nd and goal from the 2; I blame Saban, with his running backs and that O line why was the 2nd string QB called on to pass in the first place!) and at the end of the game Bama fumbled on the goal line (I think replay showed runner was down, they went to commercial, I was shocked to see ruling not overruled and Bama given the ball back on the one; oh well . . .)
Overall record for this play is now 33-18, Overs are 16-9, Unders are 17-9.
I only 'capped the weekday games, will do Saturday on Wed morn, as usual and update after completing.
BG/Tol Un 54
Stand alone games (not part of a big card) usually see a rise in the total as Joe P loves his Favs and Overs.
I'll have this on my odds screen all day as I do other work, will wait to buy hoping to get a better # tomorrow but jump on it if you see it dropping in the AM.
Good luck with your play . . .
UPDATE - 20 minutes after I give it out, the line is dropping; I just bought 54.
UPDATE - Here are the rest of the games that fit the criteria this week:
Col St/Wy Un 51
Marsh/SMU Ov 48'
N Mex/BYU Un 53
Hou/S Miss Un 66
Not sure which games I will play, will update as I buy, if and when I do. Already took BG Un 54 when it started to drop yesterday, as expected it went up today and the # is at 55.
In other games, Wyoming has appeared 3 times, 2 Unders/1 Over, all three spots won; interesting. Col St has not been in any of these this season.
Marsh was in an Over in week one, and won; SMU no appearances.
BYU was in 2 Un and 1 Ov, and won all three; N Mex was in an Un, and lost (forgivable though, it was to the Ducks in week one).
Houston, F'ng Houston. F'ing Sumlin. The loss I hate the most this season, week two, I got Un 75, Houston up 44-17 in the fourth quarter and fukwad Sumlin is running the no huddle/hurry-up offense; Up by 23 points, 4 minutes left, his startin QB gets hurt, what does dikhead do? Brings in 2nd string QB - and continues to run the no huddle; a receiver goes over the middle, creamed, out of game; what does a-hole do? Sticks with no huddle/passing game. Scored again at 3:57 in a game that any normal coach would have went to run game/clock management protected the lead AND HIS PLAYERS.
Will I play this one Under? Nofukinway.
Will I root against Houston so they won't get a bowl game? Ubetchyerass I will.
So far, only one play for me; will update later as I add/if I add.
Have I mentioned I don't like Houston and Sumlin?
Good luck with your play this week . . .
A good week last week, chugging right along towards the season's end . . .
Listed plays went 3-2 or 3-1-1 depending on what you bought Marsh/SMU Over at. It opened 48', closed the same, but 48 was available and I actually got a small TV rooting interest at 48 on Wed. so I'll mark it as a push. Unders went 3-1, the loser as expected/warned about was Houston (I also bought TV $ there - a-hole!)
My play was 1-0 as Toledo played as expected. It was a terrific situation: a double digit Fav, in a game you played Under, with a professional coach like Beckman, a former D coordinator who won't look to run up the score and plays the right way - with a double digit lead in Q4 he has his QB milk every second off the play clock and employs his ground game.
Unders are now 20-10, Overs 16-9; my record now 16-8.
This week, three spots:
BC/Syr Ov 37
S Fla/Mia Ov 46'
Ind/Purdue Un 53'
I like that BC spot (and Syr has been in this spot 3 times this year, 2-1) but don't like Overs. Like Unders, but not this one, don't like the #, and don't like the D on either side. Combined PF 43, PA 63, # right in the middle; and too low.
Hate to lay off because of record on Unders, unfortunately this is the only game that fit parameters this week. And here is where I jinx it: 11 weeks of play and I haven't had a week with a losing record yet. Yet. Had 2 weeks no plays fit, and a couple of splits, but to negotiate your way through an entire season without a losing week is a hell of an achievement. I don't play a lot of games, I don't gamble, I invest when I have %'s in my favor, and it's been a fun year. If I can make it through this week and next without a losing record . . .
Will buy one of the three, not sure which. Will update when I do.
Good luck with your play this week . . .
UPDATE: I bought S Fla/Mia Ov 46'
So Flo/Mia Over ??!!
Has either of these teams scored yet?
I bought Under 21 2nd half.
I bought So Flo/Mia Under 21 second half . . .
Posted 2nd half adjustment play Un 21 in S Fla/Mia - twice, ten minutes ago. Still not showing?
Let's get the ugliness out of the way so it's not in my next post with picks (bad karma.)
A couple of firsts last week: I gambled; I made a bet on emotion, revenge (cuz both offenses sucked in 1st half) rather than a percentage play based on my numbers. And lost. Rightfully so. Should not have played the 2nd half in So Flo/Mia, I had no mathematical edges. Lost the game even though it went OT! Mia hit a FG, if So Flo did we may have banked a W on the next OT possession, but they answered with a TD; they won, I lost. On the plus side, I have a 2nd half play for bowls that is 3-0, 3-0, 3-0 and 4-0 the last four years ( I need to check last season again; I think it was 4-0). I'll get that 2nd half unit back.
Another first - I didn't play an Under though I had one. Knew that Indiana game # was not high enough at 54, and they scored 65. Debated all week to go opposite the system and play that one Over, but at 3 years at 65%, plus this one at 20-10 going into last week, I didn't want to buck the 4 year average.
First losing week of the season for me at 0-2. Had a couple of pushes at 1-1 or 2-2, had 2 weeks no games fit criteria for Unders, but still, was thisclose to negotiating my way through an entire season without a losing week. Would of been a nice feather . . .
Record update: Overall this play is now 36-22, 62%. Overs are 16-11, Unders are 20-11, charted at 21-11 cuz of the game that was listed as a push here using the Wednesday number, but a W in my chart cuz it went up later in the week and I bought the higher #.
With just one week left, short card, I'm not sure if we'll get any plays. From the 2nd post in this thread: Unders are at Overall 75-41, 65%; three year record. This season is 21-11 so the 65% average held. Would love to get another W to hit 67%. As usual I will cap on Wed and post after wards. This play has a very nice W % after a losing week (as any play would at that %) so hopefully we'll get a couple of plays.
And unfortunately, the season ends. I just capped this week's card and we have no Unders. There is one Over, Utha St/Boise St Ov 61' but I won't touch it. No telling where Boise's head will be after getting beat last week: motivated, and out to kill, or down and play flat cuz of missed opportunity? It's just one extra factor to consider, and capping regular games with normal circumstances is tough enough.
Disappointing end to the season for a few reasons:
I missed my goal of 67% on all play. Was right there at 16-8 going into last week, but lost Miami. Add the stupid half time play and I end reg season at 16-10, 61%.
Also a disappointment - only had 32 plays this season for the Under. By comparison, there were 41 last year, 54 the year before, and 21 in the half season I tracked this in 3 years ago when I first started it.
Final numbers in my chart: Overall the play is 37-22, 63%, with this week's game outstanding and any bowl spots (usually only 1 or 2.) Overs 16-11, 59%; Unders 21-11, 65%.
On the positive side, my record on Unders used here was 15-7, 68%.
Back in September I posted "this is a system I have for NCAA Unders. I track and post Overs also, but don't always buy them."
I gave the three year record at 75-41, 65. The 21-11 we scored this year, barring any bowls, hit that target.
With four years of this play, it's now at 96-52, that's almost 150 plays at 65%.
Except for the off year in '09 (21-20) the profile has been rock solid; remove '09 and it's 75-32, 70% at over 100 plays.
And I used to hate college football . . .
See ya for the bowls (think I mentioned here, I have a 2nd half play that over the last four years has gone 3-0, 3-0, 3-0 and 4-0. Don't know if it will sweep this year, but with those # ya gotta expect to get a profit out of it.)
And with the final game of the regular season the Over gets over the hump (out of the 50%| range) , goes from 59% to 60% as Boise St goes over and the record ends at 17-11.
At the start of next season, when I review my charts, I'll note this; gonna have to give these a little more attention and play next season.
Bowls should be up in the next 2-3 days. I'll have plays from the season-long profile detailed in this thread, plus second half plays as mentioned in the post above this one.
Also, I have a script I put together, this play for sides, not totals. It kicks out four or five different types of plays.
I rate teams based on 6 parameters and team that beats its opponent in all six categories ='s a play.
If one specific category has a differential of 50 or > ='s a play.
I have to update last season's #, when I think it was profitable but not as high % as previous, but notes right now show the 2 year record before that was:
When a team hits on all 6 parameters: 7-0, w/to's 6-1 L3. I have no idea what "t/o's 6-1 L3" means, will have to study charts and see what the hell I was trying to make note of.
Anyone who read along this season knows I don't vary units; I am a big proponent of betting like dollar amounts on all games. But there is a bowl play that I have bet 2 units on in each of the previous three years. I'll post up all plays on the script after I do the handicapping, then add plays as I buy them, just as I have done in this thread all season long (had a good year, anyone play any of these?)
SP
Anyone buy any of these this year?
OK, just ran all the bowl games and bad news - no Unders. Expected. But, three Overs are in play.
Geo. Tech/AF Ov 56
Mizzoo/Iowa Ov 47
BC/Nev Ov 54'
I bought G Tech/AF & Mizzoo/Iowa, like 'em both and think both #'s will move against me.
Waiting on BC/Nev. If first two win I'll probably bank 'em and lay off the third.
Wanted an Under badly, as they have longest history and strongest W %, but no luck. Just as an FYI, here are the games that barely missed qualifying as Unders. If I'm looking for some TV action that night, I may play small $ on them: N Ill/Frez, Lou/S Miss, Ill/Bay, C Fla/Geo. Games that just missed qualifying as Overs: S Flo/Clem, Mid Ten/Mia Oh.
I will have all my bowl plays in a separate thread, after I run the games through my other profiles.
Good luck with your play this bowl season . . .