NCAA Football News and Notes Friday 12/4

OHIO U (9 - 3) vs. C MICHIGAN (10 - 2)

Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
C MICHIGAN is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
C MICHIGAN is 1-0 against the spread versus OHIO U over the last 3 seasons
C MICHIGAN is 1-0 straight up against OHIO U over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

OHIO vs. CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Ohio is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Ohio is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Central Michigan is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Central Michigan is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games

MAC Championship Game - Ford Field - Detroit, MI

OHIO U vs. C MICHIGAN
OHIO U: 1-10 ATS Away off BB conference wins
C MICHIGAN: 8-2 ATS this season

MAC Title Game has Big Favorite
By Doug Upstone

All season long, Central Michigan (10-2, 9-2 ATS) has gone about their business in a diligent manner. Picked to win the Mid-American Conference for the third time in four years, often other teams would have fallen under the weight of expectations, not this bunch. The Chippewas were 8-0 and 6-2 ATS in conference action and upset Michigan State and gave Arizona a competitive game, covering the spread at Tucson in the season opener. All along this journey, Dan LeFevour has proven to a special college quarterback and is now MACs all-time leader in passing yards, breaking quarterback Byron Leftwichs record and is now third all-time on the NCAA yardage list. Central Michigans return to prominence after 8-5 season coincided with defense coming together. The Chippewas are 18-10-1 against the spread as conference favorites the last five seasons.

Ohio U. tumbled Temple from the ranks of the unbeaten in the MAC and captured the East Division title 35-17, ending the Owls nine-game winning streak. Quarterback Theo Scott threw three touchdowns and ran for two more, setting up 2006 rematch for conference championship. The Bobcats (9-3, 7-4 ATS) offense has clicked the last few weeks, averaging 33.3 points per game, after scoring 19.5 PPG against lesser MAC competition in four prior games. Ohio U. arrives in Detroit with four-game winning streak and is 18-8 ATS off one or more wins the last five years.

Central Michigan finished first in the conference in points allowed at 17.8 and second in total defense at 331 yards per game surrendered. Defensive end Frank Zombo said It hurt last year to be ranked near the bottom in team defense, - he added, Thats why we missed the championship game, and we had to watch it on TV. Thats what motivated us in the offseason. We didnt want to be on our couches watching the game again.

The Chippewas may have a decided edge over Ohio U. if they get into the red zone. Central Michigan held opponents to a 73 percent scoring rate inside the 20-yard line, while the Bobcats ranks 106th in red zone scoring, and beggarly 114th in red zone touchdown percentage.

Sportsbet.com has Ohio U. as a 13-point underdog at Ford Field, with total of 53. The Bobcats realize the hill they have to climb, but have a much improved secondary since the last time these teams met and have forced FBS-best 35 turnovers this season.

You want to be the best, then you have to beat the best, senior WR Taylor Price said. We get that chance.

Creating turnovers will be huge for the Ohio since they are 8-1 ATS if they have the opponent commit at least two miscues. Oddmakers are setting a scoring pace CMU signal caller Dan LeFevour is very comfortable at, with 9-2 ATS record when the total is between 49.5 and 56.

Central Michigan has defeated Ohio three consecutive times (2-0-1 ATS), including 31-28 at Athens, OH last year and in MAC Championship 31-10 three years ago.

MAC Championship Preview
By Brian Edwards

After a one-year absence from the MAC Championship Game, Central Michigan (10-2 straight up, 9-2 against the spread) will return to Detroit to play for the conference crown Friday. Just like the Chippewas did in 2006, the MAC West champs will take on Ohio from the East division.

Dan LeFevour will be making his sixth career appearance at Ford Field. As a freshman, LeFevour torched the Bobcats for 314 yards and three touchdown passes to lead CMU to a 31-10 win and the 2006 MAC title. A few weeks later, LeFevour led the Chippewas to a 31-14 win over Middle Tennessee as eight-point favorites in the Motor City Bowl.

In 2007, CMU captured a 35-10 win over Miami (OH.) as a three-point ‘chalk’ in the MAC title game. In Butch Jones first campaign as the head coach, CMU didn’t win the Motor City Bowl against Purdue, but it still covered the number in a 51-48 loss as a 7 ½-point underdog.

Lefevour and Co. did fall in last year’s Motor City Bowl to Florida Atlantic, but CMU has compiled a 4-1 spread record in five trips to Ford Field with the best QB in school history taking the snaps.

For this mathcup in Motown, Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened CMU as a 13 ½-point favorite with a total of 53. As of late Thursday afternoon, most sports books had the Chippewas at 13 with a 53-point tally. The Bobcats are plus-400 on the money line (risk $100 to win $400).

Ohio (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) is riding a four-game winning streak, including last Friday’s 35-17 win over Temple as a two-point home underdog. Senior quarterback Theo Scott turned in a sensational performance, completing 17-of-21 passes for 324 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Also, Scott ran six times for 69 yards and a pair of rushing TDs.

Scott sustained an ankle injury against the Owls and was limited at practice earlier in the week. However, he was upgraded to “probable” Thursday and will get the starting nod.

Scott could be missing one of his favorite targets, though. That would be junior WR LaVon Brazill, who has 49 receptions for 670 yards and six touchdowns in 2009. Brazill is “questionable” with a knee injury that’s kept him off the practice field all week. Senior WR Taylor Price has a team-high 51 catches for 733 yards and five TDs.

When Frank Solich’s team turns to the ground attack, senior RB Chris Garrett is usually the one who gets called upon. Garrett (ankle) is a little banged-up but will play. He has 549 rushing yards, averaging 4.3 yards per carry.

LeFevour has shredded the MAC record books and was already CMU’s all-time leading passer coming into this senior season. This year he has connecting on 71.2 percent of his throws for 2,787 passing yards with a 25/5 touchdown-interception ratio. LeFevour has also run for a team-high 650 rushing yards for another 14 TDs.

Junior WR Antonio Brown is one of the most underrated in the country. Brown had 93 receptions in ’08 and has followed that year up with 89 receptions for 954 yards and nine TDs so far this season.

CMU has thrived in double-digit ‘chalk’ spots, cashing tickets at a 5-0 ATS clip. Meanwhile, Ohio owns a 4-1 spread record as an underdog in 2009. The Bobcats have won outright in three straight games as underdogs. They took the cash in their lone double-digit ‘dog spot, a 34-23 loss at Tennessee when catching 23 1/2 points.

For those bettors that don’t give many MAC games a look, let’s get you more familiar with these schools by telling you about who they played out of conference. We mentioned Ohio’s loss at UT. The Bobcats also faced UConn in the season opener, losing 23-16 as 3 ½-point home underdogs.

CMU started the year at Arizona by dropping a 19-6 decision, but it covered the number as a 15-point road underdog. The following week, the Chippewas went into East Lansing and rallied for a thrilling 29-27 victory over Michigan St. as 14 ½-point road underdogs. They didn’t fare as well at Boston College, losing 31-10 as 5 ½-point road ‘dogs.

CMU is perfect both SU and ATS in its last three head-to-head meetings against the Bobcats, who haven’t beaten the Chippewas since 2001 when Solich was still at Nebraska. When these schools met last season, LeFevour threw for 361 yards to lead CMU to a 31-28 win as a 2 ½-point road favorite.

ESPN2 will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Ohio leads the country in forced turnovers this year with 35, but CMU has committed just 13.

--CMU’s defense is led by junior LB Nick Bellore, who has 112 tackles and 10 ½ for losses in ’09.

--Ohio’s starting OG A.J. Strum is “questionable.”

--The Bobcats are gunning for their first MAC title since 1968 and just the second 10-win season (if they also win a bowl game) in the history of the program.

--California RB Jahvid Best is “out” Saturday at Washington.

Game Of The Day: Ohio vs. Central Michigan
By Lee Kostroski

Line movements

The line opened with the Chippewas as 10.5-point favorites in this year’s MAC Title Game. That line has been rising steadily throughout the week and is now standing with the Chippewas -13.

The total opened at 53 and that is where the total currently stands.

The skinny

Central Michigan (10-3, 8-0) got here unscathed in MAC play with its only two losses coming on the road to BCS-conference schools: Arizona (7-4) and Boston College (8-4). It had a very good ATS record this season, going 9-2 and covering all but one game when it was favored.

This will be the third MAC Championship game for the Chippewas in four years. They won it in back-to-back years in 2006 and 2007, defeating Ohio and Miami (Ohio) by the combined score of 66-20 (both ATS victories).

Ohio defeated Temple last week to win the MAC East outright. It was its fourth win in a row and seventh in the Bobcats’ last eight games after starting the season 2-2. The Bobcats finished 9-3 on the season and finished MAC play with a 7-1 record. Their losses were to UConn (6-5), Tennessee (7-5) and an upset to Kent State (5-7). The Bobcats rewarded their backers with an 8-4 ATS record on the season.

Ohio will be playing in just its second MAC Championship game after losing its first opportunity to the Chippewas in 2006. The Bobcats were out-gained by 233 yards and lost by 21 points in that contest. The game, however, was a lot closer than the score and stats indicate. Central Michigan scored on 71 and 96-yard plays and was only ahead by seven points heading into the fourth quarter.

Fever for LeFevour

Chippewas QB Dan LeFevour got CMU to a MAC Championship when he was a freshmen in 2006. He threw for 314 yards and three touchdowns and led CMU to an easy victory over Ohio. That was just the start of an illustrious career for LeFevour.

He became the MAC’s all-time leading passer this season and is still adding to his career numbers of 12,254 passing yards, 99 touchdowns and 2,887 rushing yards with 46 touchdowns. He looks to add to his college resume by winning his 3rd career MAC Championship.

For the 2009 season alone, he has passed for 2,788 yards with 25 touchdowns. He is also their leading rusher with 652 yards rushing (238 yards more than their leading running back) and 14 touchdowns.

Bobcats injury situation

Ohio quarterback Theo Scott injured his ankle in the Bobcats’ last game against Temple and was spotted on the sideline using crutches. He is questionable for the MAC Title Game and if he can’t go, it will be a huge blow for the Bobcats.

Scott has had breakout performances in the last two weeks, completing 67 percent of his passes for 462 yards and totaling eight touchdowns. His backup, freshmen Tyler Tettleton, has no touchdowns and two interceptions in just 20 pass attempts this season.

Along with Scott, starters WR Lavonn Brazill and S Patrick Tufua are questionable for the game Friday. They join four other starters – from the beginning of the season – that aren’t available for the MAC title game.

Trends

Ohio is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as an underdog and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 MAC games. The Bobcats are also 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU win. Central Michigan is 25-7-2 ATS in its last 34 conference games, 25-8-2 ATS in its last 35 games as a favorite, and 39-15-3 ATS in its last 57 games overall.

The Bobcats have finished over the total in their last four games as an underdog. The Chippewas are 5-1 over/under in their last six Friday games.

Head to head: The favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. CMU is 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings, winning by an average margin of 17 points.

Ohio (9-3, 7-4 ATS) vs. Central Michigan (10-2, 9-2 ATS)
(at Detroit)

Central Michigan is gunning for its third Mid-American Conference title in the last four years when it takes on Ohio at Ford Field in Detroit.

The Chippewas closed the regular season on a 3-0 SU and ATS run – all as a double-digit favorite – including Saturday’s 45-31 rout of Northern Illinois, barely cashing as a 13-point chalk. Central Michigan, winners of the MAC West Division, posted the first-ever undefeated and untied conference record in school history, and its only losses this season were at Boston College and at Arizona, both schools from BCS conferences.

Ohio claimed the East Division crown last weekend with a 35-17 win over Temple, cashing as a two-point home ‘dog. The Bobcats, who piled up 494 yards against the Owls, rattled off four straight wins (3-1 ATS) down the stretch to secure the division title, with the offense averaging 30 ppg.

This is a rematch of the 2006 MAC title game, with the Chippewas routing Ohio 31-10 as 3½-point favorites, as QB Dan LeFevour – then a freshman – threw for 314 yards and three touchdowns. Last year, Central Michigan went to Athens, Ohio, to face the Bobcats and took a 31-28 victory as 2½-point road chalk with LeFevour again lighting them up for 361 passing yards and 45 rushing yards and a score. LeFevour will be playing in his third MAC title game tonight.

The Chips have won and covered three straight meetings in this rivalry, and the favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five. Also, the SU winner has cashed in each of the last five meetings and seven of the last eight.

Central Michigan’s offense puts up 34.2 points and 419.9 total yards per game, with LeFevour leading the attack. This season, the fourth-year senior has completed 71.2 percent of his passes for 2,787 yards with 25 TDs and just five INTs. LeFevour, who is currently tied for the most career touchdown passes in Division I-A history at 146, also has rushed for a team-high 652 yards and 14 additional scores this season.

Defensively, the Chippewas allow just 17.8 points per game and 331 yards per contest. No opponent has scored more than 31 points against Central Michigan, which held eight of 12 foes to 23 points or less.

The Bobcats’ offense put up 73 points the last two weeks against Temple and Northern Illinois, with QB Theo Scott tossing five TD passes and no INTs. Scott had 324 yards passing and three TDs last week against Temple and rushed for another 69 yards and two scores. Scott tweaked an ankle against the Owls but is expected to play today. On defense, the Bobcats allow just 21.4 points and 352 total yards per game, but 153 rushing yards per contest.

Ohio is on ATS runs of 7-2 overall, 8-2 in MAC games, 6-0 on Fridays, 4-0 as an underdog and 7-2 against teams with a winning record. Central Michigan is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last four Friday games, but otherwise it is on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 39-15-3 overall, 25-7-2 in MAC contests, 25-8-2 as a favorite (6-2 when laying points this year), 23-9-2 after a spread-cover and 11-5 against teams with winning records.

The Bobcats are on “over” streaks of 4-0 as an underdog and 4-0 against teams with winning records, while the Chippewas are on “over” runs of 8-2-1 against winning teams and 5-1 in Friday contests. However, Central Michigan has stayed below the posted number in six of seven after a spread-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CENTRAL MICHIGAN

MAC Championship

Central Michigan is 8-0 in MAC this season (7-1 vs spread); they won last three games, by 28-32-14 points, scoring 45.3 ppg. Chippewas are 7-1 vs spread as a favorite this season. Ohio U won six of its last seven games, scoring five special teams TDs. Five of last seven Bobcat games stayed under total. Central (-3.5) won 31-28 at Ohio in last meeting LY, even though Bobcats outgained them by 74 yards. Lefevour was 28-42/ 361 passing in that game. Chippewas are looking for third MAC title in last four seasons behind their senior QB.

Tips and Trends

Ohio at Central Michigan

Ohio: The dream season continues for Ohio, as they can win their first MAC Championship in 41 years tonight. Ohio is 9-3 SU on the season, including 7-4 ATS. The Bobcats were 4-2 ATS away from home this season. Ohio was a double digit underdog once this season, and that was an easy cover at Tennessee. Ohio has really played well on offense over the past two weeks, against the best defenses in the MAC. Ohio has scored 73 points over the past two weeks, partly due to QB Theo Scott. Scott has 5 TD passes without an interception over the past 2 games. Ohio has a very opportunistic defense, as they lead the nation in turnovers forced with 35. This secondary will be tested tonight, but they lead the MAC in pass efficiency defense. Head Coach Frank Solich is 0-3 against Central Michigan as the coach of the Bobcats.

Ohio is 8-2 ATS last 10 conference games.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - WR LaVon Brazill (leg) is questionable.
CB Julian Posey (foot) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (Side of the Day)

Central Michigan (-13.5, O/U 53): Central Michigan has had a wonderful year going 10-2 SU and 9-2 ATS. More importantly, Central Michigan has gone a perfect 8-0 through league play, inluding 7-1 ATS. The Chippewas are led by Senior QB Dan LeFevour, the MAC MVP. This is the 3rd MAC Championship game for LeFevour. The senior QB directs an offense that averages 34 PPG points and 420 YPG this season. This Chippewas defense is another reason why they went undefeated in league play for the first time in school history. Central Michigan allowed under 18 PPG for the entire season, with only 330 YPG. This defense is especially stout in the red zone, where they've only allowed scores on 73% of red zone chances. The Chippewas have also forced 10 turnovers over their last 3 games combined.

Central Michigan is 5-0 ATS last 5 games as a favorite more than 10 points.
Over is 8-1 last 9 games as a favorite of more than 10 points.

Key Injuries - DE Sam Williams (back) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28