Public Enemies - Week 13
By Kevin Rogers
A handful of rivalry games took place last week as Ohio State beat Michigan, while Cal upended Stanford. The action escalates this week, with the Iron Bowl, Apple Cup, Egg Bowl, and Bedlam all taking center-stage. As far as public darlings go, we'll take a look at four games this Saturday that you want to take a second glance at before pulling the trigger.
Clemson (-3) at South Carolina
The battle of the Palmetto State always has bragging rights on the line, but Clemson is actually looking forward to its first ACC Championship game next week against Georgia Tech. The Gamecocks, meanwhile, have dropped three straight, including a 24-14 loss to top-ranked Florida two weeks ago.
The Tigers are riding a six-game winning streak, while scoring at least 34 points in each contest. Clemson has owned this series, capturing six of the last seven meetings, including the last three in Columbia. South Carolina's offense has slipped up considerably since mid-October, not posting more than 16 points in any of its last five games.
VI capper Joe Nelson says the Gamecocks have a great shot to pull the upset, "Statistically these teams are remarkably even in terms of yardage, but the scoring numbers have not added up for the Gamecocks through a much tougher schedule. South Carolina is bowl eligible, but this will be a key game coming off narrow losses in this series the past two years. The Gamecocks have not had an off week all season long so this should be a rejuvenated squad that had been worn down by the physical SEC schedule. The motivation has to come into question for Clemson as a lot more will be on the line next week with the ACC championship. South Carolina will prove how tough an SEC defense can be."
Syracuse at Connecticut (-13½)
The Huskies pulled a moderate upset last week in South Bend, knocking off Notre Dame in two overtimes, 33-30. UConn has been an excellent team to back this season, covering nine of ten games. The victory over the Fighting Irish was the first for the Huskies since the death of CB Jasper Howard following the Louisville game on October 17.
The Orange is coming off a solid home victory over Rutgers, blowing out the Scarlet Knights, 31-13, as ten-point 'dogs. UConn has drilled Syracuse the last two seasons by a combined score of 69-23, covering each time as a double-digit favorite. The Huskies have lost five games this season by four points or less, as UConn is several plays away from being a solid player in the Big East.
Nelson feels despite both teams coming off emotional victories last week, the better spot may be to back the underdog, "The Huskies need one more win to reach a bowl game, but last week's win felt like a bowl game for Connecticut and a letdown is likely coming off a highly anticipated game with an emotional result. Connecticut also has two games to get to six victories while this is the finale for Syracuse."
Syracuse's defense has been a strength, and according to Nelson, the Huskies may struggle on the ground, "The Connecticut offense has been less efficient with QB Zach Frazer back at QB and Syracuse has proven to be very solid against the run this season. Look for the Orange to deliver another solid effort while catching Connecticut in a difficult spot. The Huskies have been an incredible ATS team this season, but that run could end as the Huskies will be overvalued this week. No matter whom the opponent is the Huskies seem to play a close game."
Tennessee (-3) at Kentucky
The Wildcats turned in an impressive effort last week at Georgia, rallying past the Bulldogs, 34-27, while cashing as ten-point underdogs. Kentucky improved to 7-4 SU and 6-5 ATS with the win, but this week presents a much larger challenge for the 'Cats, hosting Tennessee. The Vols have beaten UK 24 straight times, dating back to 1985, while this is the first time ever Tennessee will play a night contest in Lexington.
Lane Kiffin's club is coming off a 31-16 home victory over Vanderbilt, but the Vols are winless on the road, going 0-3, while averaging 13 ppg away from Knoxville. Tennessee has been a solid road favorite, covering six of the last eight when laying points away from Neyland Stadium.
Nelson says that Kiffin has helped keep Tennessee competitive despite dropping some close contests, "The Wildcats have the better record, but the Volunteers have played the tougher schedule and appear to be the superior team statistically on both sides of the ball. While Kentucky enters this game off an upset win over Georgia, Tennessee did what it needed to do last week to beat Vanderbilt in a somewhat uninspired performance. Kentucky has won five of the last six games, but there have only been two quality victories on the season. Tennessee's losses have been more impressive than their wins as they played Florida and Alabama tougher than just about anyone."
However, Nelson points out that the motivation may not lie with the Vols, "This line is not where it should be as these teams rate nearly identically and Tennessee has zero SU road wins this season. Kentucky is proving to be a tough match-up and even though Tennessee has had success in this series, this is a different coaching staff and the Vols enter this game off a rivalry win that clinched a bowl spot last week. Tennessee gets a bit more respect in the media but Kentucky continues to impress with a 5-1 spread record the last six lined games."
Notre Dame at Stanford (-10)
The luster has dimmed a bit on the Cardinal, after Stanford was upset by Cal in the "Big Game" last week in Palo Alto. Jim Harbaugh's team is still in the midst of an excellent season at 7-4, but is looking to snap a seven-game skid against the Irish. Notre Dame may be nearing the end of the Charlie Weis era, after the Irish slipped up against UConn, falling to 6-5 SU and a horrible 3-8 ATS.
The Cardinal, despite losing to Cal, is still 5-2 ATS as a favorite, including a 3-0 ATS mark when laying at least 9 ½ points. The 'over' has hit in five of the last six for Stanford, with the lone 'under' falling three points short in a win over Arizona State.
Nelson feels that the Irish holds some value in this 'dog spot, "There is some talk of what a mismatch this game is, but statistically Notre Dame is slightly better on both sides of the ball in terms of yardage. Stanford has the edge on the ground rushing for nearly 220 yards per game, but last week the Cardinal got caught and could not keep the momentum going. Notre Dame has won seven straight games in this series and even though the Irish are reeling right now they will still carry the prestige of an elite program and the Cardinal may feel like an underdog even if Vegas certainly speaks to the contrary."
The quarterback battle certainly favors the Irish, as Jimmy Clausen has a great shot to put up big numbers, according to Nelson, "Stanford freshman QB Andrew Luck made some mistakes last week and overall is completing just 55 percent of his passes, greatly overshadowed by the numbers that Clausen has posted. Stanford is 11-1 ATS in the last twelve home games, but that one loss came last week and the string of big games has caught up to the Cardinals. Stanford's pass defense has been picked apart in several games, notably against Oregon State and Arizona so this may be a more problematic match-up than it appears."
vegasinsider.com
College Football Top 25 Cheat Sheet: Week 13
Illinois (3-7) at No. 5 Cincinnati (10-0): -20.5, 57
Why Illinois will cover:
The Fighting Illini are 3-1 ATS in their last four games and they haven't been 20-point underdogs since 2006. They were 20-point dogs four times that year and they covered each time. Also Juice Williams is expected to start after sitting out the last two games. The talented senior has had a disappointing season and will look to close out his career strong
Why Cincinnati will cover will cover
The Bearcats are the least talked about undefeated team (TCU and Boise State get more press) and they play in a BCS conference. With Pittsburgh on the schedule next week, Cincinnati, which is averaging 38.4 points a game and ranks third in total offense at 478 ppg, will look to make a statement to poll voters.
The teams are combined 6-13-1 over/under. Five of the last six Illinois games have gone under the total. Cincinnati games are averaging 58.1 points when its is favored by more than 10 points
No. 3 Alabama (11-0) at Auburn (7-4): +10, 46
Why Alabama will cover
Bama is the best cover team in the SEC at 7-4 ATS and it is beating teams this season by an average of 23.2 points. Last year's Iron Bowl was in Tuscaloosa and the Tide won 36-0. Their ground attack is averaging 225.6 yards per game and will be going up against a defense that 88th against the rush
Why Auburn will cover
Line opened at 12, but since then it has seen downward movement as low as 9.5 despite the fact that popular opinion is on Alabama to cover. Auburn has covered the last two games at home in this series. In the last seven games, the 2008 Iron Bowl was the only one where the point differential was greater than 10 points.
Iron Bowl games have gone under the total eight times in the last 10 and Alabama has the top-ranked defense in the country giving up only 225.2 yards per game. Auburn does however run an up-tempo offense and its games have gone 7-3-1 over/under this season
No. 23 Nebraska (8-3) at Colorado (3-8): +10.5, 40
Why Nebraska will cover
Nebrasaka is 7-4 ATS this season. The last three times that the Huskers have been favorites in this series, they have covered and by an average of 8.8 points. Colorado who ranks 108th in total offense this year could possibly have a tough time scoring points against a Nebraska team that is only giving up 10.3 points per game.
Why Colorado will cover
The Cornhuskers have been double-digit favorites four times this season in Big 12 play and they have failed to cover in each game. Colorado has been a double-digit underdog in three games this season and it has covered each time. The most reason being a close 31-28 loss to Oklahoma State where it was a 17-point dog. It’s been a short week for Nebraska and the Buffs will be more rested coming into this contest on eight-days rest.
This is an incredibly low number for this series as 71 points was scored in last year's game and 116 in 2007. However, Nebraska's tough D has made it one of the best under bets of the year as it is 2-9 over/under.
No. 9 Pittsburgh (9-1) at West Virginia (7-3): -1, 49
Why Pittsburgh will cover
The Panthers have been in fine form since their loss to North Carolina State in September, going 6-0 straight up and 4-2 ATS. Pitt has covered in the last two games in this series which included a 13-9 victory in 2007 where it was a 28.5 point underdog. That game also spoiled West Virginia's national title hopes.
Why West Virginia will cover
Game is basically a pick ‘em and the Mountaineers have home field advantage. That will come into play in the second half where Pitt has collapsed against tough teams. In their loss to NC State, the Panthers blew a 31-17 lead and in their last game against Notre Dame, the Irish scored 19 points in the fourth and came within five points of an upset.
The total was off in the last two games in this series, with last year's number going under by 14 points and the 2007 game going under by 37. Pitt is 3-6 over/under this season but every WVU game that has been set under 50, has gone over.
Nevada (8-3) at No. 6 Boise State (11-0): -14, 70
Why Nevada will cover
After an 0-3 start to the season, the Wolf Pack and their pistol attack have won eight in a row and covered the spread six time during that streak. This will be the most complex offense that Boise State will face as Nevada leads the nation in rushing with 373.8 yards per game. Three players already have 1,000 yards rushing, including QB Colin Kaepernick who has 1,129 yards and 16 TDs on the ground.
Why Boise State will cover
A lot is a stake for the Broncos with a BCS bowl spot and the WAC title on the line in this battle of conference unbeatens. Boise State’s offense leads the NCAA in points scored at 44.4 per game and is a bit more balanced than Nevada, which should keep them honest. That could come into play large with a Wolf Pack secondary that ranks 119th giving up 286.3 yards per game in the air. Boise State is 8-3 ATS this season.
Nevada and Boise State are both averaging over 40 points a game but 70 is the highest number that they have had to deal with this year. The two games in which the Wolf Pack were dogs have gone under, but BSU’s last three games have gone over the total
No. 24 North Carolina (8-3) at North Carolina State (4-7): +5.5, 50.5
Why North Carolina will cover
The Tar Heels have covered the spread in their last four games and head coach Butch Davis has his best team in three years with UNC at 8-3. Their defense has been outstanding, forcing 28 turnovers. The offense doesn't have impressive stats but it has put up 30 plus point in their last two games.
Why will NC State cover
Butch Davis has had two shots at NC State and his Tar Heels lost in both games. Last year being a 41-10 blowout in Chapel Hill. At times, Russell Wilson shows flashes of brilliance. He has thrown for 2,768 yards and 27 TDs this season. There is added motivation for an upset with the tragic news of OC Dana Bible being diagnosed with leukemia
NC State's has been one of the best bets with the over this season at 9-2 over/under. However, that offense will be facing a UNC defense that ranks fifth in the NCAA giving up just 261.6 yards per game. UNC is 1-4 on totals when they are favorites.
No. 16 Clemson (8-3) at South Carolina (6-5): +3, 44
Why Clemson will cover
Clemson goes into this game with a six-game winning streak, while South Carolina is on a four-game losing streak. C.J. Spiller will look to have a big game against his in-state rivals and with an offense that is averaging 33 points a game - the second highest in the conference. The Tigers have also made their backers happy this season going 8-3 ATS.
Why South Carolina will cover
Honestly its tough to find a reason why the Gamecocks will cover but homefield advantage in a rivalry game is a plus. Future NFLer Eric Norton will be playing in his last game and he has the backing of secondary that ranks seventh in passing defense, which could be a key factor in keeping this game close.
South Carolina is 1-4 over/under in its last five while the last three Clemson games have gone over. Both teams rank within the Top 20 in defense.
No. 25 Ole Miss (8-2) at Mississippi State (4-7): +7.5, 49
Why Ole Miss will cover
A two-possession victory is a strong possibility as Ole Miss is simply the better team in every category and is coming off a three-game winning streak and the high of a victory over LSU. Last year, the Rebels dominated the Egg Bowl destroying the Bulldogs 45-0. Quarterback Jevan Snead had an outstanding game last year throwing four TDs.
Why Mississippi State will cover
The Rebels defense will have its focus on Bulldogs running back Anthony Dixon, who has 1,258 rushing yards and 11 TDs this year. The senior rushed for 176 yards and two TDs versus Arkansas last week and will look to close out his career strong. The home team has also won the game straight up in the last five meetings.
Ole Miss’ SEC games have gone under nine times in the last 12, but its last three conference games have gone over. Six of the last seven Egg Bowl games have gone under the total.
No. 12 Oklahoma State (9-2) at Oklahoma (6-5): -8, 49
Why Oklahoma State will cover
The Cowboys have not won a game in this series since 2002, but at 9-2 this is one their best team in years. The line could be a bit inflated with the 6-5 Sooners having one of its worst seasons in recent memory. Oklahoma State’s rush defense has been solid this year, giving up only 82.6 yards a game.
Why Oklahoma will cover
Oklahoma State has been an underdog only once this season and it loss 41-14 to Texas as a 9-point pup. The Sooners have the talent to blowout this game and they have yet to lose in Norman this season, where they have beat teams by an average of 40.4 points per game
The Sooners are 2-9 over/under this season despite the fact that they are scoring 31.5 points per game. The total in this rivalry has gone over five times in the last seven games.
New Mexico (1-10) at No. 4 TCU (11-0): -45, 55.5
Why New Mexico will cover
With the spread at 45, this is the highest number that both teams will be dealing with this season and there is too many variables to consider if TCU is to cover. One has to figure out at what point coach Gary Patterson will pull his starters. Combine that with the fact that New Mexico is coming off an upset win over Colorado State
Why TCU will cover
TCU has covered the spread in six straight games and only one of those games (vs BYU) was the spread below 20 points. Also, New Mexico is simply one of the worst teams, ranking 111th in points scored and 108th in points allowed. That’s tough going up against a program that is in the Top 5 in offense and defense and is looking to make a statement to poll voters
The last three TCU games have gone over the total, but even if the Horned Frogs score 50, one has to factor whether or not the Lobos can get into the endzone against a team that is only giving up 12.6 points per game
No. 14 Virginia Tech (8-3) at Virginia (3-8): +16, 41.5
Why Virginia Tech will cover
The Hokies have covered the spread in their last three games, where they were double-digits favorites in all of those games. Virginia is one of the worst teams against the run which could lead to a big day from Virgnia Tech's freshman running back Ryan Williams. Last week against North Carolina State, Williams had four TDs on 120 yards. He has 1,355 yards and 14 TDs on the ground for the season.
Why Virginia will cover
Last year's contest was tight with Tech only winning by three points. The Cavaliers are at the bottom of the Coastal division but they kept their two most recent games against Clemson and Boston College close, the Atlantic Division's top two teams.
The last five Virginia Tech games have gone under the total, but their offense has been putting up points in their last two with 36 against Maryland and 38 versus NC State.
Florida State (6-5) at No. 1 Florida (11-0): -24, 56
Why Florida State will cover
The Gators are only 2-4 ATS in their last six games and with the SEC title game and back-to-back national titles on the horizon, Urban Meyer will look to protect the health of his starters. So even if an early blowout occurs, the Seminoles will have ample opportunity for a backdoor cover.
Why Florida will cover
The Florida offense has produced 45 points in both the 2007 and 2008 editions of this series, winning both those games by an average of 31.5 points. FSU will also have a tough time putting up points on the boards as the Gators have given up just 9.8 points per game this year.
The Gators have been a good under team this year going 3-7 over/under. Florida State is in the opposite direction hitting the over eight times this year.
NCAA Football News and Notes
Best Games
Clemson won last six games (4-1 vs spread); they're playing in ACC title game next week for first time. Tigers are 2-2 on road this year, with three of the four games decided by exactly three points. South Carolina lost its last three games by 18-17-10 points, as they struggle in November once again. SEC dogs are 2-2, ACC road favorites are 5-1 vs the spread out of conference. Four of Gamecocks' last five games stayed under the total.
Underdog is 9-2 vs spread in last 11 North Carolina-NC State games; in eight of the 11 games, the dog won SU. Tar Heels won, covered last four games, allowing 15 ppg; they're 2-3 as favorite, 0-1 on road. Wolfpack is 1-6 in last seven games, allowing 38.5 ppg in last four home games. Look at turnover ratios: UNC has +11 ratio in last six games. State is -14 in its last six. Seven of State's last eight games went over the total.
Average total in last three Missouri-Kansas games is 66.7; Jayhawks are 3-2 in last five series, but lost last six games overall after 5-0 start, amid rumors of player unrest with the coach. Kansas allowed 31+ points in five of the losses. Mizzou won three of last four games, is 3-3 as a fave this season; they outscored last two foes 45-13 in secnd half. Six of last nine Kansas games, three of last four Mizzou games went over total.
Oklahoma State needs QB Robinson to play (19-45/258 passing in last two games, without him); Cowboys won last three games- they're 3-0 on road, scoring 34.7 ppg in wins by 5-27-26 points. Oklahoma is 6-5 and lost two of last three games- they scored 13 or less points in four of the five losses, threw eight INTs in last three games. State held last six foes under 100 rushing yards. Three of Sooners' last four games went over.
Georgia Tech has ACC title game next week; they won last eight games (7-1 vs spread) scoring 42.3 ppg in last four. Jackets are 5-2 vs spread as a favorite. Georgia is 2-4 in last six games vs I-A teams, losing at home to Kentucky last week for first time in 32 years. Dawgs are 1-3 as dog this year, giving up 33 ppg in last three games vs I-A foes. SEC road dogs are 2-1 out of conference. ACC home favorites are 7-6 out of conference.
Underdog is 12-4 vs spread in last 16 BYU-Utah games, a bitter rivalry; BYU won last three games, scoring 38 ppg; they're 5-4 as favorite, 2-2 at home. Utah is 9-2, losing 31-24 at Oregon, 55-28 at TCU, so they're 0-2 vs spread as dog this year. MWC home favorites are 10-7 against spread. Seven of last ten BYU games went over the total; six of last eight Utah games stayed under. Utah allowed 17 or less points in all its wins.
Arizona State lost last five games, losing last two at home by combined total of seven points; Sun Devils are 3-3 as dog, 2-0 at home, but they turned ball over 14 times in last four games. Arizona lost last two games, giving up 351 rushing yards- its Rose Bowl hopes died in OT last week, how will they react here? Under is 7-1-1 in last nine ASU games, 3-1 in last four Arizona tilts. Pac-10 home underdogs are 9-7 vs spread.
Arkansas won last four games, scoring 48.5 ppg; they're 2-2 as dog this year, their last five games with LSU were all decided by five points or less, with Hogs winning last two years, 50-48/31-30. LSU lost to Ole Miss last week when they screwed up clock management at end of game, so they were answering questions on that all week. LSU ran ball for an average of only 92 yards/game in last three games, so O-Line struggling.
Notre Dame plays out string under apparent lame duck Weis; Irish lost last three games by total of 10 points, giving up average of 257.3 rushing yards, so Gerhart's eyes could be big for this one. ND is 2-0 as underdog this season. Stanford lost rivalry game to Cal last week, as freshman QB Luck threw goal line INT in last minute. Cardinal scored average of 41 ppg in last five games. Pac-10 home favorites are 6-4 out of conference.
USC won nine of last 10 games vs UCLA, winning last five here by an average of 25 points, but this year's USC ain't that USC. Trojans are 1-2 in last three games, and won by just 14-9 at Arizona State- they gave up an average of 265.7 rushing yards over last three games. Pac-10 home favorites are 12-11 vs spread. UCLA won last three games, scoring 33.3 ppg; they're 2-4 vs spread as dog. Over is 4-1 in last five USC games.
Rest of card
-- Virginia lost its last five games (1-3-1 vs spread); they're 0-2-1 as dog at this year. ACC home dogs are 8-5 vs spread. Virginia Tech won its last three games, allowing 22 points. Last five Tech games went under.
-- Favorite covered last five UConn-Syracuse games. Huskies won last week at Notre Dame; their last four games were decided by total of 14 points. Big East home favorites are 6-8 against the spread.
-- Wake Forest lost last five games (three by three or less pts); they are 2-4 as favorite this year. Duke lost last three games, getting outscored in second half of those games 58-3. ACC home underdogs are 8-5.
-- Kentucky won five of last six games, covered last three games as dog; they won at Georgia last week for first time since '77. Tennessee is 3-1 in last four games; all their wins are by 11+. SEC home dogs are 6-8.
-- Ole Miss won five of last six games, is 5-3 as favorite; they're 2-2 on road; they ran ball for 552 yards in last two games. Rebels have -10 ratio on turnovers last six games. Miss State allowed 73 points last 2 games.
-- TCU is trying to run up scores to impress BCS, so oddsmakers have made Frogs 44-point favorites against New Mexico team that got first win last week. Lobos covered three of their last four games.
-- East Carolina, Southern Miss both won four of last five games; ECU scored 37+ points in wins- they're 4-2 as favorite. USM scored average of 38.6 ppg in last five games. C-USA home favorites are 13-12 in '09.
-- Central Florida won four of last five games, UAB three of last four-- Knights scored 86 points in last two games. UCF is 4-1 as favorite this year. C-USA home underdogs are 9-10 against the spread.
-- Marshall became bowl eligible by beating SMU last week; Herd is 4-3 as underdog. UTEP lost last four games by total of 17 points, allowing 37 ppg; they have only five takeaways in last six games.
-- Tulane lost six of last seven games, falling 49-0 at UCF last week; they are 2-8 vs spread this year. SMU won three of last four games; they are 0-3 as an underdog this year. Mustangs' last three games went over.
-- Texas Tech is 5-2 in last seven games after crushing Oklahoma 41-13 last week; Red Raiders are 3-3 as favorite. Baylor lost six of last seven games, giving up 39 ppg in last three. Big 12 favorites are 22-20 in '09/
-- Florida has SEC title game next week; they're 2-4 vs spread in last six games, but have 11 INTs in last five. Florida State won four of last five games, scoring 33.8 ppg, but they're using backup QB. ACC underdogs are 6-5 vs spread out of conference.
-- Rice won its last two games after 0-9 start; they scored 28.7 ppg in last three games, so they're improving, but Houston scored 45.8 ppg in its last four games. Cougars are 4-3 as a favorite this season.
-- Idaho gets QB Enderle back for last home game; Vandals lost three of last four games after 6-1 start. Utah State lost three of last four games, is 5-1 vs spread as dog this year. WAC hom favorites are 11-7 vs spread.
-- Washington State lost last nine games, last three by combined score of 133-24; they're 3-2 as road dog. Washington lost this rivalry game LY- they've also lost last four games overall, allowing an average of 34.8 ppg.
-- Boston College is 1-3 on road, scoring 12.8 ppg, with only win 14-10 at struggling Virginia; they're 3-1-1 as favorite this year. Maryland lost in last minute at Florida State last week; they covered five of last seven.
-- Miami is 3-2 on road this season; 'canes won three of last four, are 1-4 vs spread in last five games as favorite. South Florida is 2-3 in last five games, with all three losses by 17+. Big East non-conf. dogs are 9-2.
-- San Jose State is favored despite being 0-9 vs I-A teams; they're 1-7 vs spread as underdog, thats how bad they've been. New Mexico State lost last five games (1-4 vs spread); they're 2-3 vs spread as road underdog.
-- UNLV already fired its coach; they split last four games, are 1-2 as a favorite. Rebels lost last three games to San Diego State by 14-8-21 pts. Aztecs lost last three games; they're 4-2 as an underdog this season,.
-- Hawai'i won last three games; they'll be bowl eligible if they can upset Navy team that'll be looking ahead to Army game next week. Navy won seven of last eight games; they're 2-3-1 vs spread as a favorite.
-- Florida Atlantic lost three of last four games; they're 0-3 vs spread as a favorite. Western Kentucky is 0-10, but did cover their last two, but the Hilltoppers allowed 47.8 ppg in last four. Sun Belt home faves are 13-11
-- Middle Tennessee won, covered its last five games; they're 3-2 on the road, 1-0 as road favorite. Blue Raiders have +8 turnover ratio in last five games. UL-Monroe is 2-3 as a dog. Sun Belt home underdogs are 4-4.
-- North Texas lost nine of last ten games; they're 2-3 as road dog, 2-7 vs spread in last nine games overall. Arkansas State lost four in row, eight of last nine games- they're 1-3 against the spread when favored in '09.
-- Troy State is 7-0 in Sun Belt, 5-2 vs spread, winning conference tilts on road by 3-9-20 points; five of their last six games went over the total. UL-Lafayette covered three of last four games; their last four games all went under the total.
College Football Cheat Sheet
By Marc Lawrence
Saturday, November 28th
Florida State at (1) FLORIDA
Seminoles: 5-1 vs undefeated opp (Gm 8 out) 0-3 LRG 1-6 aft Maryland 1-5 as DD non-conf dogs
Gators: SERIES: 4-1 L5 / 3-1 H beat Seminoles L6 games row 10-1 in 2nd of BB HG 9-1 as non-conf favs 21 > pts 4-1 last lined HG 4-1 off non-conf SU win 35 > pts
New Mexico at (4) TCU
Lobos: 7-1 after Colo St 7-1 conf dogs 24 > pts 6-2 LRG
Horned Frogs: SERIES: 3-1 L4 / 4-1 H 5-0 conf favs 24 > pts 4-0 LHG 1-4 after Wyoming teams off nine wins-exact in Last Game of Season are 1-6 ATS if not off an ATS loss playing their 12th straight game without the benefit of rest this season
Georgia at (7) GEORGIA TECH
Bulldogs: SERIES: 3-1 L4 5-0 L5 A 5-0 as dogs > 7 pts... 4-0 off 3+ HG 4-1 w/ non-conf rev Richt: 32-6 SU away, including 6-1 SU and ATS at non con sites
Yellow Jackets: 4-0 vs non-conf rev 0-4 after Duke 0-3 off SU win 35 > pts 2-7 w/ rest
(12) Oklahoma State at OKLAHOMA
Cowboys: 3-0-1 away off BB HG 0-4 after Colorado 2-6 A w/ conf rev 2-5 as conf dogs 8 > pts 2-13-1 dog vs opp off double-digit loss
Sooners: SERIES: 4-0 L4 5-0 after Texas Tech 4-0 LHG - ave score 47-19 6-2 as HFs 13 < pts five losses for the first time since 1999 - Bob Stoops first season with OU
(14) Virginia Tech at VIRGINIA
Hokies: SERIES: 3-1 L4 5-0 LRG 6-1 as DD RF� 4-1 after NC State 2-6 favs vs conf rev Hokies have rushed for 200 or more yards in last three games (all wins)
Cavaliers: 3-0 conf HDs 8 > pts 6-1 after Clemson 12-3 H w/ conf rev 1-4 LHG 0-16 SU and 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games when allowing 200 or more rush yards Groh: 24-7-1 with revenge, including 17-4 at home
(19)Utah at (15) BYU
Utes: SERIES: 4-1 L5 6-1 as conf dogs 6 > pts 5-1 dogs vs conf rev 0-5 off SU home win 14 > pts
Cougars: 6-1 as conf favs < 10 pts 5-1 after Air Force 7-3 favs w/ conf rev 1-4 in 2nd of BB HG
(16) Clemson at SOUTH CAROLINA
Tigers: SERIES: 6-2 L8 / 3-1 A 7-1 vs non-conf rev 4-1 after Virginia 1-4 as non-conf favs 7 < pts
Gamecocks: 4-1 off SU loss but ATS win 3-1 w/ rest 1-4 w/ non-conf rev 2-6 as HDs 7 < pts Spurrier: 9-2 dog off back-to-back losses / 8-2 SU and 6-3-1 ATS home w/rest regular season
Arkansas at (17) LSU
Razorbacks: SERIES: 3-1 L4 / 3-1 A... 6-1 dogs vs conf rev 0-4 A off BB HG 2-5 LRG
Tigers: 0-5 LHG 1-12 conf HFs 21 <pts 2-6 w /conf rev (lost at Arkansas LGS, 31-30, last year) 5-12-1 home off loss with conference revenge 1-4 vs conf opp off BB SU wins Miles: 2-13-1 con HF w/Tigers
Rice at (20) HOUSTON
Owls: SERIES: 4-0-1 L5 5-0-1 LRG 8-1 vs conf rev *7-3 as conf dogs 15 > pts 3-7 A off BB HG
Cougars: 3-0 aft Memphis 7-1-1 w/ conf rev (lost 56-42 as 3-point RF to Rice in season ender last season) 4-1 as conf favs > 14 pts 1-3 last lined HG
(21) Miami Fla at SOUTH FLORIDA
Hurricanes: 5-2-1 LRG 3-15 as RFs pts
Ucla at (22) USC
Bruins: SERIES: 3-0 L3 5-1 as DD conf dogs 4-1 after Ariz St 1-5 A w/ conf rev Bruins were 33-point HDs in this matchup last year
Trojans: SERIES: 5-1 L6 H 4-0 in 2nd of 3+ HG *6-2 conf HFs 15 < pts 3-8 before Arizona
(24) North Carolina at NC STATE
Tar Heels: 0-3-1 Last Game Season Heels riding 4-0 SU and ATS streak... teams in Last Game of Season off four wins exact and four ATS covers are 8-16-1 ATS
Wolfpack: SERIES: dog 9-2 Wolfpack 5-0 H off previous home loss w/OBrien
(25) Ole Miss at MISSISSIPPI STATE
Rebels: 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS RFs off win this decade
Bulldogs: SERIES: 1-5-1 lost 45-0 to Rebels last season, a game in which they were outstatted, 461-37
Note: (8) Ohio State, (10) Oregon, (11) Penn State, (13) Iowa and (18) Oregon State are off this week.
Saturday's Tip Sheet
By Chris David
The holidays are a time for giving and that's what we're going to try to give you today. With the help of the expert handicappers on VegasInsider.com, we're going to offer up some fearless predictions on 10 key rivalry games slated on the college football gridiron for Saturday. As always, press, pass or fade. Good Luck!
Clemson (8-3 SU, 7-3 ATS) at South Carolina (6-5 SU, 6-4 ATS)
Skinny: The Tigers have won five in a row, while the Gamecocks have dropped three straight. Clemson has won six of the last seven meetings, including three consecutive on the road. The 'over' has gone 4-3 during this stretch.
Handicapper Analysis: – Andy Iskoe: Clemson has an even bigger game on deck – next week’s ACC Championship game vs Georgia Tech in which the winner goes to a BCS Bowl. That’s not to say they will overlook the Gamecocks but certainly thoughts of next week have to be in their minds.
The Bet: Clemson's offense has been on a roll this year and it has the ability to score on special teams. We expect South Carolina to be happy to be playing outside the SEC and it should able to score some points against the Tigers. Play OVER 44.
North Carolina (8-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) at N.C. State (4-7 SU, 3-6 ATS)
Skinny: The Tar Heels have won and covered four in a row heading into this battle. N.C. State has just one victory in its last seven and that came against Marshall. The Wolfpack defense (31.5 PPG) has been horrible all year. UNC is hoping to snap a two-game losing skid to N.C. State on Saturday. Four of the last five in this series has gone 'over' the number.
Handicapper Analysis: – Jason Johnson: North Carolina is looking for payback against their cross state rivals after last seasons embarrassing 31 point loss in Chapel Hill. You know Butch Davis didn't forget about that blowout.
The Bet: UNC's defense (15.9 PPG) doesn't get a lot of respect but is one of the better units in the ACC. With that being said, we're not afraid to lay a short number on the road in this intrastate rivalry. Play North Carolina -6.
Oklahoma State (9-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) at Oklahoma (6-5 SU, 3-6 ATS)
Skinny: Oklahoma's season ended in Week 1 when it lost to BYU and Oklahoma State's year has been better but setbacks to Houston and Texas hurt the school in the big picture. The Sooners have owned the Cowboys recently, going 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in the last six encounters. Five have come by double digits too.
Handicapper Analysis: – Bullseye Sports: We understand Oklahoma State is 0-4 under head coach Mike Gundy against the Sooners, but this team is vastly improved and it is undefeated on the road this year.
The Bet: Prior to last week's loss to Texas Tech (13-41), the Sooners other four losses were by a combined 12 points. In Norman this year, they've won by 64, 45, 26, 12 and 55. We don't expect margins like that against OSU, but a big effort from the defense is expected. Play UNDER 49.
Virginia Tech (8-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) at Virginia (3-8 SU, 5-4 ATS)
Skinny: Is the end of the road for head coach Al Groh at Virginia? The Hokies haven't had a great season as far as their standards go but the team has won three in a row behind a defense that has given up 22 points during this streak. UVA enters this game with a five-game losing streak. V-Tech has won five in a row (4-1 ATS) but last year's battle in Blacksburg was just a 17-14 victory.
Handicapper Analysis: – Kevin Rogers: It's hard to justify laying heavy points with VT considering its 1-3-1 ATS this season on the road. However, this UVA team is 1-4 SU and 1-3 ATS at home this year.
The Bet: This is Virginia's bowl game and while we might be kicking ourselves after the first 15 minutes, we expect the Cavaliers to keep it close. Play Virginia +15.5.
Florida State (6-5 SU, 2-7 ATS) at Florida (11-0 SU, 4-5 ATS)
Skinny: Bobby Bowden's status as head coach for Florida State is still up in the air but the team has rallied for two straight wins. The Semionles' defense (30.2 PPG) has been torched up and down the field this year but the Gators' offense (36.5) is one-dimensional. Florida has won five straight (4-1 ATS) in this series and the 'under' has gone 4-1 during this span.
Handicapper Analysis: – Gary Olshan: Florida has a huge QB edge with Tim Tebow over Florida State freshman E.J. Manuel, who threw three interceptions last week against Maryland. Now he faces a tough Florida secondary that is known for ball-hawking.
The Bet: The Seminoles know they can't win a shootout so expect them to try to slow down the game with their young quarterback and load up the line scrimmage against Tebow. Florida will run the clock and try to stay healthy with the SEC Championship on deck. Play UNDER 56.
Arizona (6-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) at Arizona State (4-7 SU, 5-5 ATS)
Skinny: The Wildcats could have a hangover in this spot after losing to Oregon (41-44) in overtime last week. The Sun Devils won't be bowling this year and do own a 3-3 SU and 4-1 ATS mark at home. Arizona blasted Arizona State 31-10 last year, which snapped a three-game losing skid to the Devils. The 'under' has hit in four straight and six of the previous seven meetings.
Handicapper Analysis: – Phil Steele: The road team is 13-4 ATS (9-8 SU) in the last 17 meetings but ASU is 5-2 SU (3-5 ATS) in this instate rivalry and the HT is 5-1 SU. The last 2 games (‘05 and ‘07) in Tempe have both been decided by only a FG.
The Bet: The ASU defense has been stout at home this year, giving up 16.5 PPG. Arizona has the ability to put up points but we're expecting a letdown in Tempe. Look for a tight battle with the final score decided by a field goal either way. Play UNDER 44.
Utah (9-2 SU, 4-7 ATS) at BYU (9-2 SU, 5-5 ATS)
Skinny: The Holy War is a tough one to handicap since both teams are very comparable. Plus, Utah is 1-4 ATS on the road and BYU is 1-3 ATS at home. The Cougars are 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in the last seven meetings against the Utes. The 'under' has gone 4-3 during this BYU run.
Handicapper Analysis: – The Gold Sheet: Revenge (especially for QB Max Hall, who tossed 5 picks in BYU’s 48-24 loss at Salt Lake City a year ago) ought to at least ensure a focused effort from Cougars, something Bronco Mendenhall hasn’t been able to coax consistently from his troops the past five weeks.
The Bet: The Utes (29 PPG) and Cougars (35.5 PPG) have both shown that they can put points up on the board this year and neither team has a super defense. The winner should get to 30-plus in this spot. Play the OVER 53.
Arkansas (7-4 SU, 6-3 ATS) at LSU (8-3 SU, 5-4 ATS)
Skinny: Arkansas has quietly ripped off four straight wins and covers behind an explosive offense. LSU has three losses this year, but they came against Florida, Alabama and Ole Miss. This has been a great series, with the last four decided by five points or less. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four.
Handicapper Analysis: – Phil Steele: LSU has won 35 of 36 games on Saturday Night at home, with the lone loss coming earlier this year against top-ranked Florida. This one will probably come down to the wire.
The Bet: The Razorbacks are on a roll and a lot of folks are questioning head coach Les Miles and LSU these days but we believe they'll step up in their home finale. Play LSU -3.5.
Georgia (6-5 SU, 3-7 ATS) at Georgia Tech (10-1 SU, 7-3 ATS)
Skinny: The Yellow Jackets have already locked up a spot in the ACC Championship next week against Clemson, which could make you believe they're looking ahead. Georgia is in a down year but it still has talent to compete. Georgia has owned this series lately, going 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight games. The 'under' has gone 5-3 over this stretch.
Handicapper Analysis: – Brian Edwards: UGA is coming off a home loss to Kentucky that just about sums up the school's woes in 2009. Georgia. Tech is rolling toward the ACC title game with eight straight wins and a 7-1 ATS mark in that stretch.
The Bet: Georgia Tech caught Georgia 45-42 last year under first-year head coach Paul Johnson but we don't expect that to happen again. The Yellow Jackets' offense is great but the defense is suspect and four of the last five have been decided by a touchdown or less. Play Georgia +7.5.
UCLA (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS) at Southern California (7-3 SU, 2-8 ATS)
Skinny: Mighty Troy has definitely taken a step backwards this season and if there was ever a time for UCLA to earn bragging rights, it could be this year. The Bruins have won and covered three straight while USC is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in its last three, both losses by a combined 61 points. The 'under' has cashed in the last three head-to-head battles. USC is 9-1 SU in the last 10 versus UCLA. Perhaps a teaser play, right?
Handicapper Analysis: – Andy Iskoe: UCLA’s defense should do enough to stay close against what’s been a very ordinary USC offense that ranks just # 49 nationally in yards gained and # 58 in points scored.
The Bet: The Bruins have covered three in a row in this series and the point-spread makes you believe that they could have a shot again on Saturday. USC has nothing to play for while UCLA is looking for respect in Los Angeles. Play the Bruins +13.
vegasinsider.com
What Bettors Need To Know: Primetime NCAAF Games
By Nick Parsons
Saturday night's primetime games between Georgia and No. 7 Georgia Tech and Stanford and Notre Dame provide little for the regular college football fan to be excited about.
Thankfully there is this thing called sports gambling, which pretty much makes every game the Super Bowl as long as you have money on it.
Here are quick looks at both of these games for the bettor:
Georgia (6-5, 3-8 ATS) at Georgia Tech (10-1, 7-3 ATS)
The spread
The spread for the game sits between -7.5 to -8 in favor of Georgia Tech. There was odd movement in the middle of the week at the Las Vegas Hilton with the line jumping as high as -9.5. But since then it has settled back down to -8.
Why Georgia will cover
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have already clinched a spot in the ACC title game and the result of this game has little impact on whether or not they play in a BCS bowl game.
At 6-5 the Bulldogs have had a disappointing season but are treating this rivalry as a game that could turn their year into a positive.
Historically the Bulldogs have dominated this series, winning seven of the last eight meetings. That one loss came last year in a 45-42 heartbreaker in Athens, with both teams coming into the game ranked.
Also in Tech's four wins against teams with winning records, they have only won by more than a touchdown once (against North Carolina).
Why Georgia Tech will cover
The Yellow Jackets have an excellent record against the spread (ATS) at 7-3. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.
Junior running back Jonathan Dwyer leads a rushing attack that is averaging 314.1 yards per game. That is an area that the Bulldogs had trouble with last year against the Yellow Jackets. Tech only completed one pass for 19 yards, but they rushed for 409 yards and 5 TDs.
The Bulldogs have had a tough time scoring points in the fourth quarter. In their last three defeats against Tennessee, Florida, and Kentucky, the Bulldogs could not put up a point in the final quarter. To make matters worse on offense, top target A.J. Green was listed as doubtful as of Friday morning and even if he plays, he won't be 100 percent with a shoulder injury.
The total
The total for the game opened at 60 and has since moved down to 58 at most sports books. Both teams are a combined 9-10-1 on the over under this season.
Why the game will go over
Last year's game saw 87 points scored and the total was listed at 49.5. Georgia Tech is averaging 36 points per game while Georgia is averaging 27.5.
Why the game will go under
Georgia has had the total set at 55 or more three times this year. Two of those games went over and the other was a push. The under is 1-3-1 on Tech totals over the past five games.
Notre Dame (6-5, 3-8 ATS) at Stanford (7-4, 7-4 ATS)
The spread
The line opened at -8 in favor of Stanford and has since seen a 2-point movement all the way up to -10. Last year's line was -5.5 in favor of Notre Dame and the Irish covered with a 28-21 victory.
Why Notre Dame will cover
Jimmy Clausen was punched by a fan late Saturday night following Notre Dame’s loss to Connecticut. Charlie Weis could be playing in his final regular season game. Frustrations could be taken out on the Cardinal and the Fighting Irish have the speed and talent to either pull off an upset or keep this game close.
Clausen has announced he’ll be declaring for the 2010 NFL draft and we could see him put in one last good performance for scouts. Statistically Clausen has had an outstanding year throwing for 3,382 yards, 23 TDs and only 4 INTs. Stanford has been vulnerable to the pass giving up 244 yards per game, which ranks 98th in the country.
Notre Dame has also been an underdog only twice this year (against USC and Pitt). They lost both games but covered the spread. None of Notre Dame’s five straight up losses were by more than a touchdown. Also it’s scientifically proven that Leprechauns would beat a tree in a fight on most days of the week
Why Stanford will cover
With three close losses and all the off-field distractions, the Irish may not have any more left in them to take on a surprising Stanford team.
QB Andrew Luck has put in an outstanding freshman year leading the team to wins over Oregon and USC. The 55-21 victory on the road versus USC was his most impressive.
Notre Dame ranks 78th in rush defense giving up 160.3 yards per game and the game could get out of reach if Stanford running back Toby Gerhart has a good start. The senior has rushed for 1,517 yards and 23 TDs this season. Ten of those TDs have come in the last three games against Cal, USC and Oregon.
The total
The over/under for the game sits between 62.5 and 63.5 at most sports books.
Why the game will go over
All signs point to offense in this game, with Notre Dame's defense ranked 80th in yards given up and Stanford ranked 81st. Stanford hit the over five times in its last six games.
Why the game will go under
Four of the last five Notre Dame games have gone under the total, with last week's game against UConn going over only because of a 23-point double overtime.
Last stand for Weis at ND?
By AllStar.com
Another disappointing season comes to a close for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who will take on a tough Stanford team in non-conference action Saturday on ABC. Notre Dame has completely fallen apart, as a promising 4-1 start has turned into a 6-5 record. The last three outings have resulted in losses of five points or less, including last weekend's 33-30 overtime setback to UConn. Head coach Charlie Weis has been the topic of conversation among fans, analysts, and alumni. The consensus is Weis will be coaching his last regular season game for the Irish this weekend.
As for Stanford, its Rose Bowl dreams were crushed last weekend with a 34-28 loss to rival Cal in the "Big Game". The loss halted a three-game win streak for the Cardinal, which is now 7-4 overall and 6-3 in Pac-10 play. All four losses this season have come by 10 points or less for Jim Harbaugh's team. The Cardinal has victories this month over top ten teams Oregon and USC. Third-year coach Jim Harbaugh has remade Stanford into a blue-collar team, as he likes to put it, one that is extremely physical, especially at the line of scrimmage on offense. And with powerful running back Toby Gerhart, who is third in the nation in rushing at 139.2 yards per game and 23 touchdowns.
"I could talk about their offensive line, I could talk about their tight ends and I could talk about their scheme and their mentality, but that No. 7, the guy with the ball in his hands, he's special," Weis said of Gerhart. "He's a hard north-south runner. Not that he can't bounce it outside, but you have to gang-tackle him, and we've had a few problems with tackling." In a week of lasts for Charlie Weis, that promises to be the last quote from Coach Weis this season from ALLSTAR.COM.
Stanford Offense: The Stanford Cardinal is ranked 19 on offense, averaging 436.5 yards per game. The Cardinal is averaging 219.3 yards rushing and 217.2 yards passing so far this season. RB Toby Gerhart rushed for 136 yards and four TDs in Big Game vs. Cal. He leads the Pac-10 in scoring and has 23 rushing TDs, just one shy of the Pac-10 season record for rushing touchdowns (24, LenDale White, Corey Dillon,). Stanford leads the Pac-10 in fewest QB sacks allowing only six in 11 games. Plus the 0-line gets a lot of the credit for Cardinal ranking second in the league in rushing at 219.3 yards per game, joining Oregon as the only Pac-10 teams averaging more than 200 yards per game on the ground. QB Andrew Luck has rushed for 319 yards this season, just 43 shy of the Stanford season record for rushing yards by a quarterback.
Notre Dame Defense: The Irish better be ready for the most physical game they will play all season. Stanford can line up in a tight power formation and run Toby Gerhart through the line. He's hard to tackle and the Cardinal does such a good job of preventing penetration that Gerhart is almost always hitting the hole with a full head of steam. Ouch., Notre Dame, which is 80th nationally in total defense at 388.82 yards allowed per game, gets no break when redshirt freshman QB Andrew Luck drops back to pass. Luck has a big arm, and his athleticism makes him a threat to make plays with his legs when protection breaks down. Stanford will use play-action to its benefit.
Notre Dame Offense: The Fighting Irish are ranked 11 on offense, averaging 452.2 yards per game. The Irish are averaging 130.2 yards rushing and 322.0 yards passing so far this season. This could be the last regular-season game for junior QB Jimmy Clausen and junior WR Golden Tate, who could be headed to the NFL Draft after this season. QB Clausen who was cold cocked by an irate Irish football fan after last Saturday’s loss to UConn has had a superb season he has completed 266 passes for 395 yards for 3,382 yards, with 23 touchdowns and only four interceptions. WR Golden Tate has at least 113 receiving yards in eight of 11 games this season and his speed could lead to another big day against Stanford. The Irish are likely to be without leading rusher Armando Allen (697 yards, 3 TDs) after the 5-foot-10, 200-pound junior underwent surgery to repair a fracture in his right hand following the UConn game.
Stanford Defense: The Cardinal defense had a rough game against Cal last week forcing QB Luck in to the passing situations which may have cost Stanford a possible trip to the Rose Bowl. Stanford's defense allows 244.0 passing yards per game, and the secondary is the team's primary weakness. SS Delano Howell posted a career-high 15 tackles, 10 solo against Cal. The Irish and Jimmy Clausen are going to throw the ball early and often in an attempt to turn this game in to a shoot out which may be the best chance the Irish have to steal this game. The Irish do have the explosiveness to score quickly against a Stanford defense that lacks quickness. The Irish have scored more than 22 points in regulation, just once in their past five games.
Jim Harbaugh is the latest Stanford head coach to have success and immediately face the rumors of his exit from Stanford had this to say this week. "I deeply believe in the Stanford model. The idea that you can have it all," Harbaugh said "That you can achieve in the classroom and you can achieve on the athletic fields. These youngsters can have it all. They can eat the whole pie, not just a slice, not just half of it, but the entire thing."
Interesting take….Sounds like something that would have once come out of the mouth of the head coach at Notre Dame. Today, the Irish have to settle for talk of which program they will raid for their next head coach. Our guess is Brian Kelly from the Cincinnati Bearcats who features a pro style spread offense that would help bring in the speed recruits that Notre Dame so desperately needs to compete with the big boys from the SEC and the Pac Ten.
Everything is almost an afterthought, as it all takes a backseat to the nearly foregone conclusion that Coach Charlie Weis, at 35-26 in five seasons, has reached the end of his tenure at Notre Dame. Notre Dame has been getting punched in the mouth all season with a schedule that most D-I programs would beg for, but they do cover in big games and 10 points is a big number in what will surely be Charlie Weis’ swan song. Can Stanford which will be playing for the Holiday Bowl in San Diego bounce back from a tough defeat to Cal? Do the once dominant Fighting Irish have enough heart to win one for Weiss? How do they want to send Weis out? Our Guess is the Irish will get run over by a powerful Stanford team that has no let up. Take Stanford and lay the points they have just way too much for the Fighting Irish this week.
Trends:
Under is 13-3 in ND last 16 road games.
ND is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Under is 13-6 in ND last 19 vs. Pac-10.
STAN is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games.
STAN is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. INDEP.
STAN is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
ND is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Home and Away:
The Stanford Cardinal is 5-1 at home this season, 6-3 against conference opponents and 1-1 against non-conference opponents.
At home the Cardinal is averaging 35.3 scoring, and holding teams to 22.8 points scored on defense.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish is 1-2 while on the road this season, 0-1 against conference opponents and 6-4 against non-conference opponents.
On the road, the Fighting Irish are averaging 26.7 scoring, and holding teams to 28.7 points scored on defense.
The Irish have won 10 consecutive games against non-USC opponents from the Pac-10. Notre Dame has victories this season over Washington and Washington State, two lower-division teams in the Pac-10.
Stanford has lost seven straight games to Notre Dame, putting a little extra significance on this week's game.
KEYS TO THE GAME: Get tough. If the Irish aren't physically tough enough to stand up to Stanford's offense, there's not much they can do about that now. But they have to at least give themselves a fighting chance by being mentally tough enough to prepare for the pounding and to drown out all the other distractions. Stanford, in its victory at USC, appeared to take away the Trojans' will in the fourth quarter. ND can't let that happen; its offense is capable of a comeback if the team falls behind. But their defense can’t stay on the field all day long against the bruising Stanford offense.
Tips and Trends
Florida State at Florida
Florida State: Florida St. is bowl eligible for the 28th consecutive season. They will look to end their season with a shocking victory over the Gators today. QB E.J. Manuel is filling in for starter QB Christian Ponder. Manuel has 2 TDs to 4 INTs on the season. Despite the QB change, Florida St. has the 2nd best offense in the ACC with nearly 435 YPG. Florida St. is 3-2 SU and ATS this season on the road. All 3 SU wins on the road were as underdogs. Those 3 ATS wins also signify the only Florida St. ATS all season long.
Florida State is 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 10-1 last 11 games as a road underdog.
Key Injuries - DT Demonte McAllister (knee) is questionable.
WR Richard Goodman (groin) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 20
Florida (-24.5, O/U 56): Senior Night for the Gators against their rival Florida St. Florida has won 21 consecutive games, the longest streak in the nation. QB Tim Tebow and LB Brandon Spikes will be playing their final home games today. Tebow leads an offense that runs for 230 YPG and passes for over 210 YPG. Tebow has 25 TDs this year alone. Spikes leads a defense that is giving up less than 10 PPG. Only 1 opponent has scored 20 PTS or more against Florida this year.
Florida is 20-8 ATS last 28 games as a favorite.
Under is 6-0 last 6 games following a ATS win.
Key Injuries - OL Carl Johnson (ankle) is questionable.
RB Emmanuel Moody (ankle) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 41(OVER - Total of the Day)
UCLA at USC
UCLA: UCLA is 3-2 ATS on the road this season. UCLA has won 3 consecutive games SU, and 3 of their last 4 games ATS. QB Kevin Prince is healthy and playing his best football of the season. Over his last 4 games, Prince has over 1,000 YDS passing with 4 TDs and only 1 INT. The Bruins have only allowed only 1 team to score more than 27 PTS against them this year. DT Brian Pierce has 20 tackles for a loss and 7 sacks in his All American season. Pierce and his teammates will guarantee themselves a bowl berth with a victory over the Trojans tonight.
UCLA is 7-1 ATS last 8 games as an underdog of 10.5 or more.
Under is 7-1 last 8 games following a bye week.
Key Injuries - C Ryan Taylor (foot) is questionable.
OL Nik Abele (concussion) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 21 (Side of the Day)
USC (-13, O/U 47.5): USC is reeling, having lost 2 of their past 3 games SU. USC is only 1-3 ATS at home this season. Overall, USC is 2-8 ATS this year, with them being the betting favorite each game. USC is struggling this year for 2 reasons. Their passing game behind QB Matt Barkley has been average at best, and their defense has been terrible of late. Over the past 5 games, the Trojans have given up an AVG of 35 PPG. Coach Carroll no doubt will look to fix this defense coming off their bye week. USC is 11-4 ATS off a bye week.
USC is 0-5 ATS last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or more.
Over is 10-1 last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Key Injuries - WR Damian Williams (ankle) is questionable.
TE Anthony McCoy (ankle) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 27