Conference Title Notebook
By The Gold Sheet
It's a big week in the relatively short existence of conference title games. Which, historically speaking, are a rather new addition to the college football calendar. Indeed, prior to 1992, they didn't exist at all. And this Saturday's Florida-Alabama SEC title contest is definitely the most significant collision in conference title game annals; it's the first time two unbeatens have run into one another in one of these special league championship games.
It was the SEC that got the conference championship ball rolling in the first place, breaking rank with the rest of the college football world (which often moves with glacial-like speed in regard to change) and introducing what was a revolutionary concept 17 years ago, taking advantage of a loophole in NCAA bylaws that permitted conferences with 12 teams or more (of which the SEC was the first) to conduct league championship games. The rest of the college football world watched the 1992 SEC "experiment" closely, and its subsequent success served as the impetus for many of the changes we've seen in the college landscape since. It's a fact that the commercial success of the SEC title game was the main trigger in the creation of expanded "mega-conferences" (such as the Big XII and ACC) and certainly blazed a trail for other leagues to conduct their own championship extravaganzas. Now, for the fifth straight year, five conference title games will be contested.
And, despite some empty seats at recent ACC title games (the Florida locale hasn't helped lure extra fans from far-flung BC and Virginia Tech the past two years; Tampa organizers are much more exited about the prospects of closer-by Clemson and its numerous supporters making the shorter drive for the 2009 renewal on Saturday), for the most part conference title games have been business successes, especially in the SEC and Big XII. With the absence of a true national playoff, they have become important sources of revenues for the leagues. And more might be on the way. Although it has yet to join the party, the Big Ten is said to be kicking around expansion to twelve teams and the conference title game idea more than usual. None other than ol' "Shades" himself, Penn State coach Joe Paterno, believes the top Big Ten teams are at a competitive disadvantage at bowl time because the lack of a conference title game means its best teams will often finish their regular seasons as much as two weeks earlier than leagues that conduct title games. Joe, we don't think that was the reason Ohio State was blasted in BCS title games after '06 and '07, but your point is well taken. And Paterno has hopped aboard the bandwagon for Big Ten expansion, going as far to suggest that Rutgers (and its close proximity to the New York media market) would be the perfect twelfth member of the league and thus make a conference title game a reality. Sources also say the Big East would seriously consider adding a separate championship game if the league could somehow increase its football membership without adding to its bloated, 16-team basketball conference (let's not give Villanova any ideas about giving top division football another try).
Of course, the major domino that always could fall remains Notre Dame, and there is said to be a growing element within its Board of Trustees that is tinkering with the idea of joining a conference, more serious than a few years ago when it was rumored that the Irish were thinking about a hookup with the Big Ten. Some South Bend sources suggest that as more old-line Domers begin to lose influence, the "newer blood" on the Board might look more favorably upon a change, with the Big Ten remaining the "future book" favorite to land the Irish. And if and when Notre Dame ever joins a conference, rest assured a conference title game would be one of the byproducts. By us, we wish the Big East, in which Notre Dame participates in all sports save football, would tell the Irish to fish or cut bait, and join up for all sports or leave altogether. Although that's about as likely as Sean Hannity becoming best pals with Keith Olbermann.
Handicapping-wise, we're now at the point where we've had enough of a sampling of league championship games to identify some trends. Much like bowl games, double-digit conference title game underdogs have offered decent value, covering in 12 of 19 chances. In recent years, however, these league championship games have tilted to the chalk, with favorites 11-4 vs. the line since 2006, and 14-6 since '05.
Mostly, however, there have been some interesting conference-specific pointspread and "totals"-related trends that merit some extra attention. The most noteworthy of those are highlighted in the following league-by-league title game histories. Included are results since 2003.
SEC...Seventeen games since 1992, with favorites 14-3 straight up, but only 8-9 vs. the pointspread. The first two (1992 & '93) were held at Birmingham's Legion Field; since '94, all have been played at Atlanta's Georgia Dome. If Florida and Alabama seem like they've done this before, well, it's because they have. Indeed, this will be the seventh SEC title game (and second in a row) featuring the Gators and Crimson Tide, with Florida winning and covering 4 of the previous 6. Four of the first five SEC championship games also featured the Gators and Bama between 1992-95. The last straight-up underdog winner was Georgia in 2005, when beating LSU 34-14 as a 11/2-point dog. 2008-Florida (-10) 31 - Alabama 20 ("under" 521/2); 2007-LSU (-71/2) 21 - Tennessee 14 ("under" 60); 2006-Florida (-21/2) 38 - Arkansas 28 ("over" 441/2); 2005-Georgia (+ 11/2) 34 - LSU 14 ("over" 401/2); 2004-Auburn (-141/2) 38 - Tennessee 28 ("over" 471/2); 2003-LSU (-3) 34 - Georgia 13 ("over" 42).
BIG XII...Thirteen games since 1996, with favorites winning and covering nine of those. First game held at St. Louis' Edward Jones Dome (1996), then next four at San Antonio's Alamodome (1997-2000), which also hosted the 2007 game. The 2001 renewal was at Texas Stadium, Irving; 2002 & 2005 at Houston's Reliant Stadium; 2003, '04, '06, and '08 at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City. This year at Jerry Jones' new Cowboys Stadium in Arlington. In its early years, the Big XII title game was renowned for its upsets; both Nebraska (vs. Texas in the first title game back in 1996) and Kansas State (vs. Texas A&M in 1998) blew chances at Bowl Alliance/BCS title games when shocked as double-digit favorites, respectively, in the conference championship game. Kansas State returned the upset favor in '03 when it blasted 14-point favorite Oklahoma, although the Sooners still qualified for that year's BCS title game. But recent years have been noted for their blowouts, with six of the last seven (including that K-State romp on '03) decided by 21 or more, and the other (Oklahoma over Nebraska in 2006) decided by 14. Favorites have now won and covered five straight since that Kansas State upset over the Sooners in '03. 2008-Oklahoma (-161/2) 62 - Missouri 21 ("over" 79); 2007-Oklahoma (-3) 38 - Missouri 17 ("under" 65); 2006-Oklahoma (-31/2) 21 - Nebraska 7 ("under" 451/2); 2005-Texas (-261/2) 70 - Colorado 3 ("over" 601/2); 2004-Oklahoma (-22) 42 - Colorado 3 ("under" 541/2); 2003-Kansas State (+14) 35 - Oklahoma 7 ("under" 54).
MAC...Twelve games since 1997, with favorites 7-5 straight up and 6-6 vs. the pointspread. Prior to 2004 (when the game was moved indoors to Detroit's Ford Field), MAC championships had been contested at campus sites. Marshall participated in the first five MAC championship battles (Randy Moss played in the first one!), winning four of them. 2008-Buffalo (+151/2) 42 - Ball State 24 ("over" 63); 2007-Central Michigan (-3) 35 - Miami Ohio 10 ("under" 631/2); 2006-Central Michigan (-31/2) 31 - Ohio 10 ("under' 451/2); 2005-Akron (+13) 31 - Northern Illinois 30 ("over" 52); 2004-Toledo (+11/2) 35 - Miami-Ohio 27 ("under" 64); 2003 - Miami-Ohio (-7) 49 - Bowling Green 27 ("over" 581/2).
ACC... Four games since 2005, with favorites 2-2 straight up and vs. the pointspread. First three games held at Jacksonville's Municipal Stadium; 2008 and this season at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa. 2008-Virginia Tech(+11/2) 30 - Boston College 12 ("over" 43); 2007-Virginia Tech (-41/2) 30 - Boston College 16 ("under" 47); 2006-Wake Forest (-2) 9 - Georgia Tech 6 ("under" 40); 2005-Florida State (+14) 27 - Virginia Tech 22 ("over" 441/2).
CONFERENCE USA...Like the ACC, began in 2005, with four games since; favorites 3-1 straight up and vs. the pointspread. C-USA title games have been held at campus sites, with the home team noted by an *. 2008-East Carolina (+121/2) 27 - Tulsa* 24 ("under" 651/2); 2007-UCF* (-71/2) 44 - Tulsa 27 ("under" 74); 2006-Houston* (-5) 34 - Southern Miss 20("over" 531/2); 2005-Tulsa (-2) 44 - UCF* 27 ("over" 561/2).
WAC...Three title games at Las Vegas' Sam Boyd Stadium between 1996-98, with favorites winning all three, and covering two.
Conference Championship Games Betting History
By Doug Upstone
The Southeastern Conference was the innovator of the Conference Championship game back in 1992 and when you think about, this has helped propel them to being arguably the best conference in college football year in, year out. The leaders of the SEC knew their customer was a football starved fan and would relish the opportunity for one more game to decide the leagues title. Most years this has provided additional excitement by splitting the conference into two divisions, giving more schools an opportunity to compete in this confrontation.
Alabama and Florida met in the first three games between these schools in this instant classic. In the first game, unbeaten Alabama came in ranked number two in the country and was a solid 10-point favorite over a Florida team that had lost three times, coached by Steve Spurrier, who had just started things rolling at his alma mater. With this being such a new venture, the SEC settled on Legion Field in Birmingham, the Crimson Tides home away from home. This guaranteed a sellout and the game was played there the first two years.
Alabama had allowed only eight points a game with its stifling defense, but a cocksure Spurrier had his team well prepared and with nothing to lose, took the opening kickoff for a touchdown. The Tides defense had trouble all game long with the Gators, allowing 347 yards, after surrendering only a 183 yards per game all year. Alabama hung on to win 28-21 over Florida. This year will be the sixth matchup between these teams in this contest, with Florida 3-2 SU and ATS. The Gators are 3-1 ATS when favored.
This will be the fifth appearance for each Nebraska and Texas in the Big 12 championship with the Cornhuskers 3-1 ATS and the Longhorns just the opposite at 1-3 ATS. This will be their third get-together in this battle.
Do you think Marshall ever wonders about leaving the MAC? They played in the first six championship games (won five) and havent been heard from since, moving on to Conference USA. Central Michigan looks to move into second place for MAC titles (seeking third) behind the Thundering Herd with a win this season, since this contest began in 1997.
Bettors receive five additional possibilities to consider that have often had their share of surprises. Heres a look at the history of each of the conference championships.
SEC
The SEC will be playing it 18th championship game and has a rematch from last season, with Alabama facing the top-ranked team in the country in Florida. In the previous seventeen years, four teams, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee or LSU have been one of the participants in this contest. The favorite has won 14 of the 17 games; however it has been a battle most of the time as 8-8-1 against the spread record shows. For many college football fans, especially in the South, this game would do just fine to settle the national championship in 2009. However, it is just another step closer for the winner, moving to BCS title game and this team will likely be a favorite against whomever they play. Since 1996, the total has gone on runs of two or more and the UNDER has been the play the last two seasons.
Past SEC Championship Game Results
Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/6/08 -FLORIDA (-10, 54) 31, ALABAMA 20 -FAV/FAV/UNDER
12/1/07 - LSU (-7, 58) 21, TENNESSEE 14 - FAV / Push / UNDER
12/2/06 - FLORIDA (-3, 44.5) 38, ARKANSAS 28 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/3/05 - GEORGIA 34, LSU (-2, 42) 14 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/4/04 - AUBURN (-14.5, 47.5) 38, TENNESSEE 28 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/6/03 - LSU (-3, 42) 34, GEORGIA 13 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/7/02 - GEORGIA (-9, 47) 30, ARKANSAS 3 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/8/01 - LSU 31, TENNESSEE (-7, 54) 20 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/2/00 - FLORIDA (-10, 51.5) 28, AUBURN 6 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/4/99 - ALABAMA 34, FLORIDA (-7, 51) 7 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/5/98 - TENNESSEE (-15, 48) 24, MISSISSIPPI ST 14 - FAV / DOG / UNDER
12/6/97 - TENNESSEE (-7.5, 58.5) 30, AUBURN 29 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/7/96 - FLORIDA (-14, 48.5) 45, ALABAMA 30 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/2/95 - FLORIDA (-24, 56) 34, ARKANSAS 3 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/3/94 - FLORIDA (-7, 46.5) 24, ALABAMA 23 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/4/93 - FLORIDA (-4.5, 43.5) 28, ALABAMA 13 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/5/92 - ALABAMA (-10, 37) 28, FLORIDA 21 - FAV / DOG / OVER
Big 12
The Big 12 joined the festivities in 1996 and exploded onto the scene with a memorable contest. Nebraska had its usual powerhouse and was huge 20.5-point favorites over Texas, who had lost four regular season games. Longhorns coach John Mackovic emptied the playbook, utilizing trick plays and fourth down attempts and upset the heavily favored Cornhuskers 37-27. This gave the Big 12 affair instant credibility. Two years later, an unbeaten Kansas State squad cruised into the title game as 17.5-point favorites and was upset 36-33 by Texas A&M. Five seasons later, the Wildcats were able to pull the same trick on Oklahoma. The Sooners were unbeatable and two touchdown favorites over Bill Snyders K-State club. The Wildcats came out throwing deep and caught an overconfident Oklahoma team off-guard and buried Bob Stoops Sooners 35-7. Those represent three of the four losses by the favored team in 13 tries. The favorite is 8-4-1 ATS in the history of the game. Since 2002, this contest has been a series of blowouts, with the average winning margin being 31.7, with the closest three years ago, as Oklahoma won 21-7 over Nebraska. Eight of the 13 contests played have covered the spread by 10 or more points. The South Division has been by far the better of the two Big 12 divisions and that is shown by 5-0 SU and ATS dominance the last five years in this encounter. The UNDER has been the play five of the last seven contests.
Past Big 12 Championship Game Results
Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/6/08 - OKLAHOMA (-16.5, 78.5) 62, MISSOURI 21 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/1/07 - OKLAHOMA (-3, 64.5) 38, MISSOURI 17 - FAV /FAV / UNDER
12/2/06 - OKLAHOMA (-3.5, 44.5) 21, NEBRASKA 7 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/3/05 - TEXAS (-25, 60.5) 70, COLORADO 3 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/4/04 - OKLAHOMA (-23.5, 54.5) 42, COLORADO 3 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/6/03 - KANSAS ST 35, OKLAHOMA (-14, 53) 7 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/7/02 - OKLAHOMA (-7, 51) 29, COLORADO 7 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/1/01 - COLORADO 39, TEXAS (-7, 54.5) 37 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/2/00 - OKLAHOMA (-3, 53) 27, KANSAS ST 24 - FAV / Push / UNDER
12/4/99 - NEBRASKA (-8, 52.5) 22, TEXAS 6 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/5/98 - TEXAS A&M 36, KANSAS ST (-17.5, 46) 33 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/6/97 - NEBRASKA (-19, 53) 54, TEXAS A&M 15 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/7/96 - TEXAS 37, NEBRASKA (-20.5, 56) 27 - DOG / DOG / OVER
MAC
In 1997, the MAC joined the fun and has been the most entertaining of the conference championships. Eight of the 12 games played have been decided by eight points or less in highly competitive conflicts. This will be Central Michigans third appearance in the last four years in this game. This sets up another meeting with Ohio U., whom they whipped in 2006. Being the underdog is the better position in this contest as they are 7-4 ATS, with the favorite only 6-5 SU in lined MAC matchups for the crown. Following the same line of thinking, the team with the poorer record heading into the game is 7-2-1 ATS (Ohio U, this season). The dog has covered a double digit spread in all four instances.
Past MAC Championship Game Results
Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/5/08 - BUFFALO 42, BALL STATE (-15, 62.5) 24 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/1/07 - C MICHIGAN (-3, 64) 35, MIAMI OHIO 10 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
11/30/06 - C MICHIGAN (-3, 46.5) 31, OHIO U 10 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/1/05 - AKRON 31, N ILLINOIS (-13, 53.5) 30 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/2/04 - TOLEDO 35, MIAMI OHIO (-1.5, 64) 27 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/4/03 - MIAMI OHIO (-6.5, 57) 49, BOWLING GREEN 27 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/7/02 - MARSHALL (-2.5, 62.5) 49, TOLEDO 45 - FAV / FAV / OVER
11/30/01 - TOLEDO 41, MARSHALL (-2.5, 63.5) 36 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/2/00 - MARSHALL 18, W MICHIGAN (-6.5, 54.5) 14 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/3/99 - MARSHALL (-20, 56.5) 34, W MICHIGAN 30 - FAV / DOG / OVER
12/4/98 - MARSHALL (-12, 48) 23, TOLEDO 17 - FAV / DOG / UNDER
12/5/97 - TOLEDO 14, MARSHALL 34 - N/A / N/A / N/A
ACC
The ACC has engaged in the fray in the last four years and it does not elicit much support on a local or national level. The ACC has had severe attendance problems; not being able to bring many of the locals to the contests played in Jacksonville or Tampa and would probably be better suited in Charlotte. The ACC championship has seen the favored teams lose outright three of four times, opening up more conjecture for this season. This is the second straight year the game features a rematch, with Georgia Tech having stopped Clemson 30-27 as five-point home favorites. After several years of not living up to expectations, the Tigers have finally made it to the title tilt. This is the Yellow Jackets second appearance in ACC finale and rest assured it will be a much higher scoring affair then their last visit.
Past ACC Championship Game Results
Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/6/08 - VIRGINIA TECH 30, BOSTON COLLEGE (-1, 38) 12 - DOG / DOG / OVER
12/1/07 - VIRGINIA TECH (-4, 48) 30, BOSTON COLLEGE 16 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/2/06 - WAKE FOREST 9, GEORGIA TECH (-1, 40) 6 - DOG / DOG / UNDER
12/3/05 - FLORIDA ST 27, VIRGINIA TECH (-14.5, 45) 22 - DOG / DOG / OVER
Conference USA
Conference USA does not have the football tradition to play such a game at a neutral site and instead has one of the teams participating as the host. The home team has won and covered the first three conflicts, until East Carolina pulled the big surprise. The Pirates are back to defend their title, this time at home. Though the sampling is small, it is not a surprise this defensively-challenged conference is the only one that has not had a total under 50. This leads to negative angles for both teams in this battle. Houston is 2-9 ATS in road games when they allow 28 or more points, while East Carolina is 0-6 ATS when they concede 28 or more points.
In looking at the history of all games played on the home field of one team, the host is 7-3 SU, covering the spread on five occasions. The Over has been the play in six of the 10 affairs.
Past Conference USA Championship Game Results
Date - Favorite (Line, Total), Underdog: SU / ATS / O-U
12/6/08 - EAST CAROLINA 27, TULSA (-12, 66) 24- DOG /DOG / UNDER
12/1/07 - CENTRAL FLORIDA (-7.5, 73) 44, TULSA 25 - FAV / FAV / UNDER
12/1/06 - HOUSTON (-5.5, 53.5) 34, SOUTHERN MISS 20 - FAV / FAV / OVER
12/3/05 - TULSA (-2.5, 57) 44, C FLORIDA 27 - FAV / FAV / OVER
ACC Championship Preview
By Kevin Rogers
The fifth installment of the ACC Championship takes place this Saturday night in Tampa, as both Georgia Tech (10-2, 7-1 ACC) and Clemson (8-4, 6-2 ACC) look to claim its first conference title since the league's expansion in 2003. The ACC instituted the championship game in 2005 after Boston College joined the conference, giving the league 12 teams. Interestingly, two of three teams that left the Big East to migrate to the ACC have enjoyed the most success as far as conference title appearances go.
Virginia Tech has claimed two conference championships, while losing to Florida State in the inaugural ACC title game in 2005. Boston College has been on the short end the last two years against Virginia Tech, while Miami does not have an ACC title game appearance on its ledger.
Georgia Tech fell in the 2006 ACC title game to Wake Forest as 2 ½-point favorites in a scintillating 9-6 loss to the Demon Deacons. Clemson will be making its first appearance in the ACC championship, while the Tigers seek their first conference title since 1991, the year before FSU joined the ACC.
The Jackets and Tigers began the ACC schedule on September 10, as Tech beat Clemson, 30-27 at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta. Tech jumped out to a 24-0 lead in the second quarter thanks to a pair of touchdowns from over 80 yards out, including an 82-yard touchdown scamper from Anthony Allen. Clemson quarterback Kyle Parker rallied the Tigers back with three touchdown tosses, as a 63-yard score by the electric C.J. Spiller began the scoring barrage.
The Tigers eventually took a 27-24 advantage in the final quarter, but the Ramblin' Wreck kicked a pair of field goals to win the game. Georgia Tech ran for 301 yards, despite leading rusher Jonathan Dwyer rushing for just 66 yards in the victory. However, the Tigers cashed tickets as 5 ½-point road underdogs, while easily sailing 'over' the total of 44.
Georgia Tech followed up the Clemson win with a poor showing at Miami the next week, as the Hurricanes drilled the Jackets, 33-17. The 'Canes outgained the Jackets, 454-228, as Georgia Tech was limited to 95 yards on 39 carries. The Wreck bounced back by winning eight straight games, including all six ACC contests. Tech's hot streak was slowed up by intra-state rival Georgia last Saturday, 30-24. Paul Johnson's squad cashed plenty of tickets after the Miami defeat, going 7-2 ATS the last nine games.
Clemson began the season dropping two of its first three ACC contests, including a disappointing loss at underachieving Maryland. The Tigers rebounded by winning each of their last five conference games, scoring at least 34 points in each victory. The most glaring win out of the five was an overtime triumph at Miami, 40-37, as Spiller scored a pair of touchdowns, including a kickoff return for a score prior to the half. The Tigers ended the season with a 34-17 setback at rival South Carolina, snapping a six-game winning streak. Clemson has drilled the 'over' in five straight lined games, while going 'over' the total in two of three games listed at 55 or above.
VI handicapper Joe Nelson feels the ACC took a hit when Clemson and Georgia Tech each stubbed their toes last week, "With both teams losing last week to SEC teams, this ACC title game has lost some of its national scope in a year where the conference appeared to be making some progress in its national presence."
However, Nelson says that the Yellow Jackets' running game will make or break them on Saturday, "Georgia Tech's rushing numbers have been incredibly impressive this season, but quality defenses have been able to slow the Jackets down and having already faced the Tigers this year will be an advantage. Clemson adds the potential for scoring on special teams with the most dangerous return man in the nation with Heisman candidate C.J. Spiller."
VI senior handicapper Brian Edwards says that last Saturday's performances by each squad may hurt them this week, "I think bettors have to be concerned about how both of these teams played last week. I don't think you can blame last week's lackluster efforts on the look-ahead spot because both were playing their in-state rivals with bragging rights on the line."
Edwards is bullish on the Jackets the second time around after they got by the Tigers earlier this season, "I had Georgia Tech in the first game back in September and lost when Clemson produced the backdoor cover. Nevertheless, I think the Yellow Jackets are the side here because I give them a big advantage in coaching. Dwyer and Josh Nesbitt will make more big plays than Spiller, and Georgia Tech will win the ACC just as I predicted back in August to pay me and others a plus-750 payout."
Nelson says that the Tigers benefited from playing on the Atlantic side of the conference, "Clemson has been the vastly superior defensive team on the year, but the schedule has been less difficult and the Tigers have been a poor road team this season with much worse performances. Georgia Tech is a difficult match-up in this situation and the Jackets were more dominant in ACC play and were victorious the first time around."
The Yellow Jackets are currently listed as a one-point favorite at most outfits, with the total set at 55. The game kicks off at 8:00 PM Eastern at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa on Saturday night.
College Football Cheat Sheet
By Marc Lawrence
Posted: 2009-12-03
And then there was one. One final weekend for five of the six undefeated teams to make their final case in this years BCS bowl puzzle.
Here is a look at the teams currently ranked in the Top 25 of the current USA Today/Coaches Poll. Listed below are stats, fact and trends surrounding this weeks football card. Home team in CAPS. All results are ATS - Against The Spread - unless noted otherwise
Thursday, December 3rd
(16) Oregon State at (8) OREGON
Beavers: 7-0 after Wash St Riley: 8-2 SU and ATS w/rest vs opp off W 7-1 / rest 3-1 in 2nd of BB RG 11-4 as DD conf dogs 1-3 Thursday RG
Ducks: SERIES: 3-1 L4 9-1 off SU win but ATS loss 8-1 w/ rest 7-1 after Arizona 12-3 as DD conf favs
Saturday, December 5th
(1) Florida vs. (3) Alabama
Gators: SERIES: 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS versus Alabama in SEC title games / won 31-10, as 10-point favorites in title game last year / 10 straight time the Gators are favored over the Tide in this series defending national champions are 12-10-3 SU and 6-18-1 ATS as favorites of less than seven points versus an opponent with revenge since 1989 Gators football teams have never had an undefeated season in their 101-year school history
Crimson Tide: 2-4 SU and ATS in SEC championship games - all versus Florida last year Tide was 12-0 ranked No. 1 when lost 31-20 to Gators in this game last year Saban: 16-8-1 ATS dog w/revenge, including 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS when taking less than seven points / 9-3 SU and ATS versus undefeated team when his team is undefeated
(2) Texas vs (20) Nebraska
Longhorns: SERIES: 7-1 SU - only one win by more than 10 points McCoy: 17-1 SU and 12-4-1 ATS versus opp off spread loss, including 6-0 ATS versus .666 or greater opp
Cornhuskers: 1-15 SU and 5-10-1 ATS dogs versus undefeated opp both teams are 2-2 SU and ATS in this game (1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS versus each other) teams in Big 12 Conference championship games with a win percentage of .750 or less are 1-6 SU and ATS
(5) Cincinnati at (15) PITTSBURGH
Bearcats: 5-1 as conf favs/dogs 4 < pts 4-1 vs conf rev 1-4 off SU win but ATS loss 1-4 in LRG... 2-5 off DD non-con win vs conf opp
Panthers: SERIES: 4-1 L5 / 3-0 H 5-1 w/ conf rev 4-1 conf favs/dogs 4 conf opp winner wins the Big East and a bid into a BCS Bowl game
New Mexico State at (6) BOISE STATE
Aggies: 4-0-1 A off A 0-5 dogs 28 > pts 1-3 after San Jose St
Broncos: SERIES: 3-1 L4 / 3-0 H 4-0 Saturday off Fri gm 4-1 after Nevada 4-1 favs 35 > pts 5-2 in 2nd of BB HG 48-point or larger CFB favorites are 8-20 ATS
(12) Georgia Tech vs. Clemson
Yellow Jackets: 2nd appearance for Jackets in ACC title game - lost 9-6 to Wake Forest in 2006; 1st appearance for Tigers Johnson: 33-12 vs opp off loss - but only 13-21 SU and 17-17 ATS versus .555 or greater opp
Tigers: SERIES: 9-1 pick or dog vs Jackets lost to Yellow Jackets, 30-27, in Game Two this season
(18) Houston at EAST CAROLINA
Cougars: SERIES: visitor 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS (4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS last five) beat Pirates here last year, 41-24, as 11-point dogs gained 600 or more yard five times this season, including four of last five games
Pirates: defending champs, won 27-24 as 12.5-point dogs in title game at Tulsa last year Holtz: 21-7-1 ATS as a dog, including 17-2-1 ATS if scored more than 21 points last game game is at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Greenville, ECUs home field
Arizona at (19) USC
Wildcats: SERIES: 4-0 L4 / 4-1 A 4-1 Last Game 3-1 dogs vs opp in 3rd straight HG *5-2 as conf dogs 10 < pts 5-2 in 2nd of BB RG
Trojans: 5-0 SU and ATS H off back-to-back H 5-1 after UCLA 2-8 vs conf rev 0-5 favs less than 13 points this season havent gained more than 336 yards in any of last four games
(22) California at WASHINGTON
Golden Bears: 0-4 fav off SU dog win 0-3 vs opp w/revenge of Stanford 1-11 fav 3 or more vs opp w/revenge off double-digit win 1-4 A w/rest 6-12-1 ATS away from Game Eight out
Huskies: 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS HD versus opp off back-to-back SU and ATS wins
(23) West Virginia at RUTGERS
Mountaineers: 3-0 SU and ATS away after Panthers 11-2 A vs .750 or less con opp
Scarlet Knights: SERIES: 1-3 H / host 1-6 6-2 LHG 9-1 SU and ATS L10G season L2Y
Note: Season completed for all other ranked teams.
College Football Top 25 Cheat Sheet: Week 14
By Nick Parsons
No. 23 West Virginia (8-3) at Rutgers (8-3) -1.5, 44.5
Why West Virginia will cover:
The Mountaineers enter this contest in fine form and should be sharp, having played their toughest competition in the last two weeks. They'll be carrying momentum from their dramatic last second victory over Pitt. Prior to that, they put in a decent performance against undefeated Cincinnati, losing only by three. Quarterback Jarrett Brown hasn't put up numbers that stick out, but should keep the Rutgers defense honest, allowing for a possible big day from Noel Devine, who rushed for 134 yards and a touchdown last week.
History is also on West Virginia’s side with a 30-4-2 edge in this series with its last loss to Rutgers coming in 1994.
Why Rutgers will cover:
The line opened at 2.5 in favor of West Virginia, but early money on Rutgers has now made the home team the favorite. Rutgers has covered the spread four times in their last five games and it seems like their young stars on offense are finally coming of age. Freshman quarterback Tom Savage leads the team and another freshman, Mohamed Sanu, rushed for 148 yards and two touchdowns last week. Impressive considering he has played wide receiver for most of the season. The Scarlet Knights defense has been solid ranking No. 13 in the country in points given up at 16.8 per game.
These two teams have a combined 8-13 over/under record this year and the last two games in this series have gone under.
No. 5 Cincinnati (11-0) at No. 15 Pittsburgh (9-2) +2, 58.5
Why Cincinnati will cover:
Their offense is one of the most explosive in the nation scoring 39.4 a game and averaging 472 yards of total offense. Quarterback Tony Pike is coming off of a 399-yard, six-touchdown performance and even when he is out backup Zach Collaros has done a great job throwing for 1,434 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Cincinnati has been perfect this year and has proven that they can win close games against tough competition.
Why Pittsburgh will cover:
This Bearcats have had the luxury of playing at home for the entire month of November and now they have to close out the year on the road against a Pitt team that has a perfect record at Heinz Field (the game is sold out). Freshman running back Dion Lewis has rushed for 1,441 yards this season and produced back-to-back 150 yard games. Senior quarterback Bill Stull will look to close out his career strong after having a disappointing game last week where he threw two key interceptions.
The last three Pitt games have gone under the total, but the Mountaineers are averaging 40 points per game in their last three.
New Mexico State (3-9) at No. 6 Boise State (12-0) -47.5, 58
Why New Mexico State will cover:
There are several variables to contend with when dealing with a spread so high. One has to factor in at what point will this game be out of reach for the Aggies and also at what point will Boise State’s Chris Petersen put in his subs? In New Mexico State's blowout loss to Nevada, the Aggies managed to score 14 points in the final 10 minutes so the potential for a backdoor cover is there when opposing teams slack off. Also, poll voters really won't see a difference between a 40-point win and a 70-point win.
Why Boise State will cover:
2007: Boise State 58, New Mexico State 0
2008: Boise State 49, New Mexico State 0
Four of the last five New Mexico State games have gone under the total, however, Boise is on a four-game over streak and is averaging 53 points per game during their last three.
Arizona (7-4) at No. 19 USC (8-3) -7, 49.5
Why Arizona will cover:
Arizona has kept games close this year, even the ones they lose. Their three Pac-10 losses this season have been decided by an average margin of 4.6 points. USC has not scored more than 20 points in the last three games of this series. The Wildcats have also covered the spread in the last four meetings in this series.
Why USC will cover:
Arizona has had problems on the road this year having only covered the spread once in five tries. Injuries have also hit the Wildcats with tailback Nic Grigsby and receiver David Douglas not expected to play. Quarterback Nick Foles will start, but he will have to deal with a broken hand on his opposite throwing arm. This has been a disappointing season for powerhouse USC, but they got a bit of their swagger back with a 28-7 victory over UCLA last week.
The last three games in this series have gone under the total.
No. 22 California (8-3) at Washington (4-7) +7, 58
Why California will cover:
The Golden Bears have momentum on their side with recent wins over Arizona and Stanford. Backup running back Shane Vereen has done an outstanding job replacing injured Jahvid Best. Vereen rushed for 159 yards and a score against Arizona and had 193 yards and three touchdowns in the victory over Stanford. That bodes well for Cal who will face a rush defense that ranks No. 9 in the conference in yards surrendered at 155 per game.
Why Washington will cover:
Washington is a bit better than their 4-7 record indicates. While at certain points during the season they have had total breakdowns (mostly against teams from the state of Oregon), their season does include wins over Arizona and USC. This also isn't the same team that Cal beat 48-7 as quarterback Jake Locker was out for that game. The last time Cal visited Seattle they lost 37-23.
Eight of the last nine games in this series have gone over the total.
No. 18 Houston (10-2) vs. East Carolina (8-4) +2.5, 68
Why Houston will cover:
Houston has been on of the best bets this year with an outstanding 8-3 ATS record. They come into the Conference USA championship game with the No. 1 ranked offense in the country averaging 583.1 yards and scoring 44.9 points per game. The last meeting between these two teams was last year where Houston won 41-24. Quarterback Case Keenum threw for 401 yards and three touchdowns in that game.
Why East Carolina will cover:
East Carolina has the better conference record and will have home field advantage. That bodes well for a team whose only home loss this season was to Virginia Tech. Houston has struggled on the road this year with their only two losses away from home. They also struggled against a 5-7 Tulsa team, squeaking out a 1-point victory.
Houston has played to the over in four of its last five games. And this is a team that not only scores points but give up a lot as well ranking No. 83 in points allowed at 28 per outing. This is the highest total East Carolina will be dealing with this year as its previous high was 56.
No. 1 Florida (12-0) vs. No. 3 Alabama (12-0) +5.5, 41
Why Florida will cover:
Auburn almost pulled off the upset against Alabama by containing Mark Ingram who was held to 30 yards rushing. All they did was simply stack the middle forcing Alabama to run on the perimeter. Look for Florida to do the same, perhaps with even more success, even without suspended Carols Dunlap in the lineup for the Gators. Florida ranks No. 2 in the nation in rush defense, allowing just 77.2 yards per game. The last eleven SEC title games have been decided by 7 points or more.
Why Alabama will cover:
The problem in last year's SEC title game for Alabama was fatigue, where they saw the Gators outscore them 14-0 in the fourth quarter. With come-from-behind wins this season against LSU and Auburn, the Crimson Tide seem to be in better form towards the end of the game. Florida has also given up 28.0 sacks this season and they will be going up against much improved Alabama pass rush led by the 365-pound Terrence “Mount” Cody.
Both teams are a combined 8-14 on totals this season. Florida has actually been one of the best under bets this year with a 3-8 over/under record, but 41 is the lowest number that they have dealt with this season.
Total Talk - Title Games
By Chris David
Usually we reserve this piece just for the NFL but with the vast majority of gamblers focusing on the quartet of college football championships this Saturday we decided to put in the overtime.
Without further adieu, let’s take a closer look at the totals.
CUSA – Houston at East Carolina (68.5)
This total is the highest on the board for Saturday and its understandable considering not many teams have been able to slow down Houston and its top-ranked offense (44.9 PPG, 583 YPG) all season. Another factor with this number is that the Cougars' defense (28 PPG, 445 YPG) is ranked 110th in total yards. East Carolina doesn't have the most potent offense (26.9 PPG) but its defense (21.25 PPG) is the second best in Conference USA. Since this game is being played at ECU, it should be known that the defense (18 PPG) has been even better at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium this year.
The Pirates (29) and Cougars (28) have both been opportunistic with takeaways on defense. The two teams didn't meet during the regular season, but Houston QB Case Keenum helped his team notch a 41-24 road victory over East Carolina in 2008, which saw the 'over' cash. Five of the last six encounters between the two schools have have gone 'over' the number. Before you run to the counter and place your 'over' bets, keep in mind that East Carolina beat Tulsa 27-24 last year in the title game and that was a Golden Hurricane offense that was averaging just under 50 PPG. The game easily went 'under' the number.
SEC – Florida vs. Alabama (41.5)
A lot of defense is expected to be played at the Georgia Dome on Saturday when the Gators and Crimson Tide clash for the second straight year in the title game. Florida (9.8 PPG) and Alabama (10.8 PPG) are ranked first and second nationally in scoring defense, and both schools are allowing 233 YPG in total defense as well. Will the defensive units rise up to the occasion or should we expect some big plays? If you do witness some highlights, don't expect it to happen through the air, at least not often. UF (214 YPG) and Alabama (194 YPG) have both struggled passing the football, yet they know how to pound the rock, which helps the clock run and run quickly too.
Last year, Florida earned a 31-20 decision against Alabama in the SEC Championship, but the combined 51 points fell 'under' the closing number of 54 points. The Gators have watched the 'under' go 8-3 on the season but this is the lowest total posted in all of their lined games. Alabama has had three totals listed at 41 ½ or lower this year and the 'over' has gone 2-1 in those contests.
ACC – Georgia Tech vs. Clemson (55)
The Yellow Jackets and Tigers meet for the second time this season, with this week's battle happening from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay. Georgia Tech captured a 30-27 decision over Clemson on Sept. 29 at home, which easily went 'over' the closing number of 44. Even though both teams combined for over 800 yards, there was three touchdowns of 60 yards or more, plus two special teams scores helped as well. Fast forward ahead to the title game and the oddsmakers have adjusted the total by almost two touchdowns. Georgia Tech (35 PPG) does lead the ACC in scoring and Clemson (31.75 PPG) is right behind, but will the game slow down with a “Winner Take All” strategy?
Prior to this encounter, the previous four meetings between the Jackets and Tigers went 'under' the number. The first four ACC Championships have watched the total go 2-2 but none of the previous matchups have seen a total close to this number. G-Tech has had four totals this year listed at 55 or higher and the 'under' went 3-1 in those games. Meanwhile, Clemson has seen the 'over' go 2-0 in totals of 55-plus this season.
Big 12 – Texas vs. Nebraska (44)
Last year, the Big 12 was flooded with offensive juggernauts but it's been the exact opposite this season. Defense has ruled the conference and that will be the focus on Saturday from Dallas when Texas and Nebraska collide. The Longhorns do boast a solid offense (43 PPG) that is ranked third nationally in scoring but Nebraska (25 PPG) has been inconsistent all season long. Texas has the ability to run or pass, but the Cornhuskers have been one-dimensional with their ground-and-pound style. The Longhorns haven't seen a total this low all year but they do enter this affair with a 3-0 'over' run, which includes last week's 49-39 shootout victory against Texas A&M on Thanksgiving. Nebraska has seen the 'under' go 9-3 this season this year and the main reason is Bo Pelini's defense (11 PPG). Only Texas Tech (31 points) was able to expose the unit this year and seven of those points came on a defensive touchdown. The last three meetings between Texas and Nebraska have gone 'under' the number.
Championship Week
By SportsPic
Conference Title Games headline college football this week with the Grand Daddy of them all, the Southeastern Conference Title Game kicking off at 08:00 EST Saturday in the Georgia Dome. The SEC Title Game the oldest (18th) of the Conference Championships features #1 Florida Gators and #2 Alabama Crimson Tide in a rematch from last season a battle that Gators won 31-20 as 10 point favorites marking it's 7th Title (7-2 ATS) of this well-known Conference Championship and the 4th over Crimson Tide in six attempts (4-2 ATS). Gators looking to defend both the Conference Crown and it's Bowl Championship Series title have been pegged 5.5 point favorites. It is well to note that although SEC favorites have won 14 of the previous 17 Title matchups these contests tended to be closer than expected as witnessed by the vig-losing 8-8-1 spread record for favorites. Still, the tendency is to go with Florida Gators who as mention perform exceptionally well in the big game, have won twenty-two consecutive games (15-5 ATS) chewing up opposition by 30.5 PPG and enter the tilt a perfect 5-0 ATS as a favorite of 10.0 or less over the 22-game stretch, 17-4 ATS the past 21 vs a team with a winning record.
Betting Guide
By SportsPic
California at Washington
Winners of five of their last six including upset wins over ranked Stanford (34-28), Arizona (24-16) the Golden Bears have little trouble vs a Huskie defense abused this season allowing 398.0 total yards/game and 28.2 PPG. Crushing Washington 48-7 last year marking a sixth win in seven encounters (5-2 ATS) by an average 24.4 PPG. Lay the expected touchdown. Golden Bears are not only 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings in Washington but Huskies who pulled off a rare win last week vs in-state rival Washington State (30-0) are 1-11 ATS off home win by 28+ points, 0-4 SU & ATS it's last four final home games of the season
Wisconsin at Hawaii
Hawaii (6-6, 6-5 ATS) behind an improved defense allowing just 11.0 PPG the past three and needing a victory to play in the Hawaii Bowl the Rainbows won't be laying down when Badgers come visiting. Take the points, Rainbows are solid bets vs teams with a winning record (6-2 ATS), 4-1 ATS L5 non-conference games, 5-2 ATS L7 vs the Big Ten. On the flip side, Badgers are 4-10 ATS L14 away from home, 1-9 ATS L10 as a road favorite of 10.5 or greater.
NCAA Football News and Notes
Home team won last five South Florida-UConn games, with Bulls losing last two visits here, 15-10/22-15; USF lost last two road games 31-0 at Rutgers, 41-14 at Pitt, so have to question their will, especially on a cold December day. UConn is 9-1 vs spread this season, 3-1 when favored; they scored 45-33-56 points in their last three games. Big East home faves are 6-8 vs spread. Five of last seven USF games went over total.
West Virginia won its last 12 games vs Rutgers, winning last six here by average score of 32-14; they won rivalry game 19-16 on last play against Pitt last week. Mountaineers are 1-3 on road this year, winning 34-13 at Syracuse, losing by 11-11-3 points. Rutgers won five of last six games, is just 2-2 at home vs I-A foes this year, losing to Cincinnati/Pitt. Five of last seven West Virginia games, six of last seven Rutgers games stayed under the total.
Noon kickoff in chilly Champaign tough duty for California kids; Fresno State won six of last seven games, is 3-3 on road this year, 2-1 as a road dog- this is their third trip east of Mississippi this season. Four of last five Fresno games stayed under total. Illinois is just 3-8, 0-3 vs spread if favored- they played last week, Fresno didn't. Big 11 home favorites are 8-11 vs spread in non-conference games. WAC road underdogs are 10-8.
Louisiana Tech is huge favorite despite losing last five games, covering last four as an underdog; they're 2-0 vs spread when favored, going 2-1 at home vs I-A foes, beating Hawai'i 27-6, New Mexico State 45.7. Home favorites are 11-7 vs spread in WAC games. San Jose is 1-9 vs D-I foes after beating NM State 13-10 last week; Spartans are 0-5 as road dogs in '09, losing away games by 53-25-20-38-15 points. Three of La Tech's last four games went over the total.
Boise State allowed 35-25-21-33 points in last four games, but they are 4-1 vs spread as home favorite (Nevada scored with 1:17 left last week to cover on blue carpet); last four Bronco games went over total. New Mexico State has already lost three games by 38+ points this year; they are 3-3 as road dog. Boise is 48-point favorite; excellent game to avoid.
Arizona/USC both won rivalry games last week; Trojans won last seven games vs Arizona, winning the last three here by average score of 37-14, but Arizona covered last four meetings. Wildcats are 2-3 on road, 1-2 as road dog, losing away games by 10-3-8 points. USC is 2-8 vs spread in last ten games, 2-3 as home favorite, winning games in Coliseum by 53-21-6-21 points. Four of last five Arizona games stayed under the total. Pac-10 home favorites are 12-11 vs spread.
Cal Bears won five of last six games; they're 4-1 on road, winning away games by 14-19-2-6 points. Cal is 4-4 as favorite, 2-2 on the road. Over is 4-1-1 in last six Washington games; three of last four Cal games stayed under. Huskies snapped 4-game skid with 30-0 win in Apple Cup last week; they're 5-4 vs spread as underdog, 3-1 at home. Cal won six of last seven series games, three of last four here. Favorite is 6-3 vs spread last nine series games. Pac-10 home underdogs are 9-7 vs spread.
Favorite covered three of four Cincinnati-Pitt games; Bearcats' 28-20 win LY was their first in four meetings. Panthers lost rivalry game last week at West Virginia, snapping six-game win streak; they're 6-0 at home, and are underdog for first time this season. Bearcats are 11-0 but did give up 45-21-36 points in last three games, forcing zero turnovers. Six of last seven Pitt games stayed under total. Big East home underdogs are 2-6.
Hawai'i won last four games to get back to .500, upsetting Navy 24-17 last week; Warriors are 4-4 vs spread as underdog, covering last three as the dog. Wisconsin won three of last four games, but is just 2-2 on road, winning 31-28 at Minnesota, 31-28 at Indiana. Big 11 road favorites are 10-14 in non-league games, 2-3 on road. WAC underdogs are 13-11 vs spread, 3-3 at home. Four of last five Hawai'i games stayed under total.
FAU won four of last five games against FIU, scoring 55-57 points last two years; three of last four series games were decided by 31+ points. Owls are 2-4 on road, giving up 29+ points in all six games- they're 3-4 vs spread as underdog. Last five FAU road games went over. FIU split last four games after 1-6 start, but they are 2-0-1 vs spread as a favorite. Sun Belt home favorites are 13-10 against the spread.
Houston (+10.5) came to Greenville LY and beat East Carolina 41-24 in fairly big upset, racking up 621 yards; now Cougars are road favorite in C-USA championship game. Houston won seven of last eight games, is 5-2 vs spread in last seven games as favorite, but just 1-3 as a road fave. ECU won five of last six games; they're 5-1 at home, with only loss 16-3 at Va Tech. C-USA home underdogs are 4-7 against the spread.
Winner of Alabama-Florida game goes to national title tilt; both teams are 12-0. Crimson Tide is underdog for first time this year; they started year with 34-24 win over Va Tech in this building, still most points they gave up this year. Florida was +10 in turnovers in last six games, after a 23-20 win over Arkansas Oct 17; they're 6-5 as favorite this year, 3-4 in last seven games. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Bama games, 8-2 in last ten Florida tilts. Favorites are 18-23 vs spread in SEC games this season.
Georgia Tech (-4.5) beat Clemson 30-27 at home Sept 10, scoring TD on fake FG, outrushing Tigers 301-125; Tech led 24-7 at half, held on late. Both teams lost rivalry games last week; Clemson had a 6-game winning streak snapped at South Carolina. Spiller ran three kicks back for TDs in last eight games. Tech had 8-game win streak snapped last week; they've scored 20+ points in second half of last seven games. Under is 4-1-1 in Jackets' last six games.
Nebraska won last five games, allowing 10.6 ppg; they're 2-0 as the dog this year, losing 16-15 at Va Tech (+3.5), upsetting Oklahoma 10-3 (+6) in Norman. Cornhuskers have 11 INTs in last five games (+9 TO ratio). Texas plays for national title if it wins here; they covered five of last six games, after covering one of first five. Big 12 favorites are 22-19 against spread this year. Seven of last ten Texas games stayed under the total.
What Bettors Need To Know: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
By CHASE WALLACE
The undefeated Cincinnati Bearcats (6-5 against the spread) travel to Heinz Field to take on the Pittsburgh Panthers in a virtual Big East championship game.
The Bearcats come in with an outside shot of sliding into the National Championship Game. A stylish win over Pittsburgh could vault them over TCU and a little help from Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship later in the day would put them past Texas for an unlikely matchup with the SEC champion in Pasadena.
Pitt is looking to bounce back from last week’s 19-16 loss to West Virginia. The Panthers can still win a share of Big East title and earn their first BCS Bowl berth since 2004.
Line movement
Oddsmakers opened with the game as a Pick, although a few shops did have Pitt favored by a point. The action has gone in Cincy’s direction with the Bearcats now giving 2 points.
The total opened at 57.5 and is sitting at 58 with most books.
Rumor mill
Cincy head coach Brian Kelly is one of the many names getting tossed around as a possible replacement for Charlie Weiss at Notre Dame. Kelly is doing his best to duck and dodge questions.
“I have not had contact (with ND),” Kelly said. “Even if they were reaching out to me, I’m finishing out the season just like I have every year. We’re going to focus on Pittsburgh this week. After the Pittsburgh game, we can talk about other things.”
Healthy Pike
After missing a few games and parts of others with a left forearm injury, QB Tony Pike returned to his old form last week completing 32-46 passes for 399 yards and six TDs.
Pike, who was splitting time with Zach Collaros in the previous game, took nearly all of the snaps against the Illini and should do the same this week.
Something‘s gotta give
Pitt is allowing just 17.7 points per game and its defense hasn’t allowed more than 22 points in the last seven games. On the other hand, Cincy averages 39.4 points per game and hasn’t been held under 24 points.
Sack masters
Pittsburgh must get pressure on Pike to win Saturday’s game. The Bearcats’ pass attack is too lethal if Pike isn’t harassed. Led by defensive end Greg Romeus, Pitt’s D leads the nation with 43 sacks. An effective pass rush from the front four could make things difficult for Pike.
Control the clock
Pittsburgh will rely on a strong running game to control the tempo and keep Cincy’s offense off the field. Freshman running back Dion Lewis leads the conference with 131.5 rush yards per game. Panthers coach Dave Wannstedt hopes Lewis can get some good gains on first and second down, and lead to some 15-play scoring drives.
Trends
Pitt is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS at Heinz Field. The under is 7-1 in Pitt’s last eight conference games.
The Bearcats are 6-5 ATS this year but have failed to cover in their last three victories. Cincinnati is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
Weather
Temperatures are expected in the mid 30s throughout the game with a good chance of light snow. The forecast says the winds should be calm.
What Bettors Need To Know: Alabama vs. Florida
By PATRICK GARBIN
For the second consecutive season and seventh time since its inception, the SEC Championship Game will match Florida and Alabama.
The game counters the two top-ranked teams in the country, two of the leading contenders for the Heisman Trophy and two of the most dominant defenses in college football.
Line movement
Florida opened as 4.5-point favorites. Heavy action on the Gators moved the line to -6 and it has since dropped to -5.5. The total opened at 41 and stayed there the majority of the week until recently rising to 41.5.
The over is where the biggest percentage of wagering is being placed while Alabama and the money line (+190) is a close second.
Significant injuries/suspensions
Florida defensive end Carlos Dunlap is suspended because of a recent DUI arrest. Dunlap is tied for the team lead in sacks, is second in passes broken up and was defensive MVP of last season’s BCS title game.
“This is a rather serious [distraction], obviously,” said Florida head coach Urban Meyer.
Alabama’s Mark Ingram, the SEC’s second-leading rusher, suffered a hip pointer in the regular-season finale but says he feels great and will play Saturday.
Seeking revenge
Alabama’s Nick Saban will be seeking revenge this Saturday after last season’s tough 31-20 loss to Florida.
Since he came to the SEC in 2000, 14 different teams have beaten Saban one year and had a rematch in the following season, but only one (Florida in 2000 and 2001 when Saban was at LSU) won both games back to back.
“Losing eats at [Saban],” said former assistant Lance Thompson. “He’s not gonna rest until he finds a way to win.”
Sack attack
Alabama has eight more sacks (31 to 23) than this time a year ago. The only games this season it did not register a sack were in blowout wins over North Texas and Chattanooga – games the Crimson Tide did not necessarily need to blitz.
Florida quarterbacks have been sacked 13 more times (28 to 15) in ’09 than in the 2008 regular season. Tebow was sacked just once against Alabama last year and, because of the great protection he had in the final quarter, was able to engineer two final scoring drives, leading the Gators to victory.
Part of Tebow’s protection is Xavier Nixon at left tackle. The true freshman has seen significant action in only the last five games, starting three, and will face a fierce ‘Bama blitz.
Heisman hype
Apparently healthy, Heisman candidate Ingram will look to bounce back from his last performance of 16 carries for just 30 yards against Auburn. He will confront a Gator defense allowing just 233 yards and less than a touchdown per game.
Tebow, Florida’s leading passer and rusher, has willed his team to victory after victory. He is at his best in big games and when in the spotlight.
He’s guided the Gators to 22 consecutive wins – the fourth most in SEC history.
Key matchup
After catching just 13 passes in Alabama’s first seven games, sophomore sensation Julio Jones has averaged 5.4 receptions per the last five games.
Florida’s Janoris Jenkins and Joe Haden will matchup against Jones, depending which side of the field the receiver lines up at.
Jenkins has not been the impact player he was a year ago while Haden leads the Gators in interceptions and is a Thorpe Award finalist. Jones is five inches taller than both players.
“Julio is a big, strong guy,” Haden said. “What I'm going to try to do is get my hands on him and throw off his timing.”
Trends
Since he has been at Florida, Urban Meyer’s teams have finished strong, winning 10 of 11 and going 9-2 ATS against Florida State, in SEC title games, and bowls. Alabama is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 SEC games.
Coaching in the SEC, Meyer is 11-2 straight up and 13-0 ATS against AP top-10 opponents; Saban is 9-8 straight up and 10-7 ATS against the top 10.
The under is 8-1 in Florida’s last nine SEC games and 8-2-1 in Alabama’s last 11 SEC games.
Game Of The Night: Nebraska vs. Texas
By Nick Parsons
By the time kickoff rolls around for the feature game Saturday night, one half of the National Title Game will have already been decided. It’s up to the Texas Longhorns to decide the other half.
They'll have the opportunity to play either Alabama or Florida, but first they have to beat the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the Big 12 Championship game, which takes place at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington.
Colt's last stand
Only two games remain in Colt McCoy's college career and the question on sports bettors’ minds is whether or not he can lead the Longhorns to a victory greater than two touchdowns over Nebraska.
The stats certainly say he can accomplish this feat. McCoy has thrown for 3,328 yards and 27 TDs this season. He comes into the game in good form as well, having thrown for a combined 700 yards and eight TDs in his last two games. All of that with zero interceptions.
The offensive as whole has been impressive averaging 451.1 yards per game and outscoring opponents by an average of 27.6 points. However, in their 12 games, only one contest was against a team that ranks in the Top 30 in defense yards given up. On neutral territory, they only managed 16 points against Oklahoma.
Wrecking Suh
Nebraska’s defense ranks 11th in the country and has the personnel to do what Oklahoma did. The Longhorn offensive line will have to contend with Ndamukong Suh, who is projected as the top pick in this year's NFL draft. The 300-pound senior has recorded 70 total tackles this year with seven sacks. He was also voted Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year by the coaches.
The secondary is decent as well with Larry Asante and Prince Amukamara earning All-Big 12 honors. Amukamara will most likely be put on Jordan Shipley for the entire game. However, nickel CB Eric Hagg seems to be the weak point in the secondary. He will have to come up with a big performance as Texas is fully aware of his struggles in deep coverage this year.
They're not A&M
Its no secret that the Cornhuskers have relied on their defense to win games for them this season. Case in point: a 10-3 win over Oklahoma. And on paper, it doesn't look good when the 91st ranked offense is going up against the fifth ranked defense. So one has to wonder whether or not they can put points on the board.
Many people saw holes in the Texas defense with Texas A&M scoring 39 points against them last week.. Don't expect Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini to copy the same gameplan though. Quarterback Zac Lee is not the big playmaker that Jerrod Johnson is, but he has done an excellent job of limiting mistakes (except in the Iowa State game where he threw three interceptions). The strength of their offense is in their running game, which is led by the rushing tandem of Roy Helu Jr. and Rex Burkhead.
It’s not to say that Lee won't be counted on to make big plays, but look for Nebraska to copy Oklahoma's gameplan against Texas rather than Texas A&M’s. The Huskers want to slow down and control the time of possession. An ugly game could be the only way in which Nebraska keeps this within two touchdowns.
The line
The spread opened up at 14 and now sits between 14.5 and 15. The Longhorns began the season 1-4-1 ATS, but have since gave backers something to smile about covering four times in the last six games. In their last Big 12 title game appearance in 2005, the Longhorns easily covered the 25.5 spread with a 70-3 win over Colorado.
Nebraska is 5-7 ATS this year and is 2-0 ATS as an underdog. The Huskers’ biggest margin of defeat this season was against Texas Tech, where they loss by 21 points as 10.5-point favorites.
This is the third time these two teams meet in the conference championship game. Texas won 37-27 in 1996, the inaugural season for the Big 12, while Nebraska won 22-6 in 1999. Nebraska covered in both games.
The Cornhuskers have actually fared well versus Texas covering in the last two meeting. In 2007, Nebraska easily covered the 20.5-point spread with Texas winning by just three points and in 2006, Texas won 22-20. That was good enough for the Cornhuskers to cover +5.
The total for the game opened up at 43.5 and has had big movement all the way up to 47 at some sportsbooks. Early money was put on the over despite that fact that this contest features two of the top defenses in the country. Texas is giving up only 15.4 points per game and Nebraska 11.1. The Cornhuskers are also 3-9 over/under this season.
On the opposite side of the equation we have a Texas team who is averaging 43 points a game this season. The Horns are also on a three-game over streak with those games averaging a total score of 73 points.
Weather won't play a factor with the game being played in Cowboys stadium. This will be the third college football game played in the $1.3 billion facility. BYU upset Oklahoma 14-13 in the first game, while Texas A&M loss 47-19 to Arkansas in the other.
Can Nebraska Upset Texas?
By Judd Hall
Dreams of winning a national championship and the rebirth of a powerhouse are the possibilities for Saturday’s Big XII title game between Texas (12-0 straight up, 5-6-1 against the spread) and the Cornhuskers at Dallas Cowboys Stadium.
The Longhorns have every expectation of recreating the 70-3 romp they had for the crown over Colorado as 25 ½-point favorites in 2005. It’s Texas’s fifth trip to the conference championship round, going 2-2 in the first four attempts.
Nebraska (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) hasn’t been to this stage since dropping to the Sooners in 2006 as a 3 ½-point underdog, 21-7. The ‘Huskers haven’t won the automatic BCS berth since Frank Solich’s eight-point faves over these same ‘Horns, 22-6. They, too, have posted a 2-2 mark in the Big XII championship.
The sportsbooks don’t believe the Cornhuskers have much of a chance to pull off the upset. Texas has been installed as a 14 ½-point favorite with the total coming in at 47. Bettors still have the chance to cash in with a plus-500 return (risk $100 to win $500) on the money line if Nebraska wins outright.
So does Nebraska have a chance to make a game of it?
The ‘Huskers have finished off the regular season with five straight games, covering the number in two of them, one of which was a 10-3 home triumph over Oklahoma on Nov. 7. What’s impressive about that win streak is they aren’t doing it with an offense that is terribly powerful.
Nebraska is averaging just 25.6 points per game and was about as vanilla as could be against the Buffaloes last week. The Cornhuskers are moving the chains on third down just 39.5 percent of the time to rank 59th nationally. That might have something to do with the fact that they can’t throw the ball to save their lives, averaging only 187.3 passing yards per game this year. – That’s good enough for 93rd in the country.
The plus side for the ‘Huskers here is hope as Texas A&M put up 342 yards through the air on Texas on Thanksgiving. VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Marc Lawrence doesn’t put a lot of credit into Nebraska’s passing attack doing the same as the Aggies. “Texas has held five teams to season low yards. And there is no reason to believe that the Cornhuskers’ offense will suddenly find a passing game against this defense.”
Texas does have the No. 39 pass defense in the nation, allowing just 201.4 YPG this year. And they’ve had success against some of the more prolific passing attacks in the Big XII. They gave up 143 yards to the Cowboys, 327 empty yards to the Sooners and 256 meaningless yards to the Jayhawks. While the final are decent amount of passing yards, they never allowed those three programs to get more than 20 points. And the ‘Horns can capitalize on mistakes as they lead Big XII with 21 picks, returning four of them to the house.
With an offense that can’t pass effectively against a defense that can shut them down, you’ll have to look to the ground. Nebraska is picking up 147.4 rushing YPG this season. Roy Helu has racked up 1,111 yards on the ground with 10 scores this year to lead Nebraska.
For Helu to succeed, he’ll have to run up against the best defense against the run. No pressure at all, right? Texas has giving up just 61.8 YPG on the ground in 2009. Alabama is a distant second to them, giving up 77.1 YPG. The Longhorns have also surrendered five rushing touchdowns and only 59 first downs on the ground.
When you have a defense as imposing as Texas, you can be a little more relaxed on the attack. It doesn’t get more easy going than Colt McCoy. The Longhorns’ signal caller is the 11th most efficient passer in the country this year with a 152.93. McCoy has focused a lot on Jordan Shipley over his career, but he’s splitting it this season with him, along with Malcolm Williams and James Kirkendoll. This group has accounted for 182 receptions that translated into 2,247 yards and 19 touchdowns. And we can’t forget the fact that Tre’ Newton is coming off of a 107-yard rushing performance against the Aggies.
Nebraska has done quite well on defense for Bo Pelini in his second year. The Cornhuskers are 11th in total defense, giving up 291.4 YPG in 2009. And they have the No. 25 defense against the pass by allowing 189.5 YPG though the air.
Is this the best defense that the Longhorns will face? Marc Lawrence doesn’t believe that to be true. “This is not the best defense the Horns will have faced this season that would have been Oklahoma's. Granted, the Huskers allowed more than 20 points in only one game this season (Texas Tech), and they have held three teams to season low yardage marks in 2009.” He concludes, “In six games against conference opponents with a win percentage of .666 or greater, Pelini has allowed an average 38 PPG, surrendering more than 30 points in five of the six contests.”
The Cornhuskers are going to have to buck a trend that has come up in the title game for the South Division teams. Teams from the South have gone a healthy 9-4 SU and 9-3-1 ATS.
Now that number seems daunting, but the pups have ran wild in this head-to-head series as they’ve gone 3-5 SU, but 5-2-1 ATS since the first Big XII title game in 1996.
Texas doesn’t lose all that often when made a big favorite. They are 51-3 SU as a 10 ½-point favorite over the past five years. Bettors have been moderately successful with a 30-24 ATS in those games.
The Cornhuskers haven’t been all that successful as double-digit pups over the last five seasons. You can easily see that as they’re 1-8 SU and 4-5 ATS mark when put in that spot.
Don’t forget you can catch this game on ABC starting at 8:00 p.m. EST.
Tips and Trends
Alabama vs. Florida
Alabama: Alabama is undefeated this year, and 7-4 ATS on the season. Alabama is 4-1 ATS away from home this year, with their defense being a major reason why. The Crimson Tide statistically are the 3rd best defense in the country. They are 2nd in scoring defense, allowing only 10.8 PPG. They are also top 8 in both rushing and passing defense. Alabama has held 6 opponents to single digits in points this season. RB Mark Ingram leads an offense that is more balanced now than any other time this season. Ingram has rushed for over 1,400 YDS, along with 15 TDs. QB Greg McElroy has been very efficient, with 16 TDs to only 4 INTs while completing more than 60% of his passes. WR Julio Jones leads a receiving corps that features 4 WRs with more than 20 receptions. This is the first time this season that Alabama has been an underdog.
Alabama is 9-4 ATS last 13 conference games.
Under is 4-1 last 5 neutral site games as an underdog.
Key Injuries - RB Mark Ingram (hip) is probable.
WR Michael Bowman (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 14
Florida (-5.5, O/U 41): The stakes couldn't be any higher. The SEC Championship is on the line, as well as playing in the BCS National Championship game. This is also QB Tim Tebow's last SEC game of his storied career. While undefeated, Florida is only 6-5 ATS this year and 2-2 ATS away from home. Today's game will be the first time Florida is favored by less than a TD this season. The Gators have the best defense in the country. They are the only FBS school allowing less than 10 PPG, and also lead the country in yards allowed, with only 233 YPG. Only 1 opponent has scored 20 PTS or more against the Gators this season. Florida has rushed for nearly 2,850 YDS this season, with only 15 turnovers in 12 games. With this ball control offense and dominating defense, Florida will look to punch their ticket to the BCS National Championship game.
Florida is 4-0 ATS last 4 neutral site games as a favorite.
Under is 8-1 last 9 conference games.
Key Injuries - LB A.J. Jones (knee) is doubtful.
DE Carlos Dunlap (suspension) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 20 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
Nebraska vs. Texas
Nebraska: Nebraska enters the Big 12 Championship at 9-3 SU, including 7-5 ATS. The Cornhuskers are 3-2 ATS away from home, with only 1 opponent scoring 20 PTS or more against them. Both times Nebraska was an underdog this year, they covered the point spread. Nebraska has lost 12 consecutive games against teams ranked in the AP Top 10. Defense rules the day at Nebraska as they only allow 11 PPG, which ranks them 3rd in College Football. DT Ndamukong Suh is the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, and an upcoming top 5 pick in the NFL Draft. Nebraska has been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games. This Cornhusker offense is very one dimensional, as they depend strictly on their running game. QB Zac Lee is going to have to make plays with his arm today for Nebraska to have a chance of shocking Texas tonight.
Nebraska is 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 10-3 last 13 games overall.
Key Injuries - LB Blake Lawrence (concussion) is out.
S Rickey Thenarse (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 10
Texas (-14.5, O/U 46.5): Texas is one step away from playing in the BCS Championship game. The Longhorns are a perfect 12-0 SU this season. However, they are only 5-6-1 ATS on the year. Texas is 3-2 ATS away from home, having scored at least 40 PTS each time. Offensively, the Longhorns average 43 PPG which leads all BCS Conferences. Only Houston and Boise St. score more points than Texas. QB Colt McCoy is the catalyst for this offense (3,325 passing YDS; 365 rushing YDS; 29 TDs with 9 INTs) and is coming off a performance that saw him become the first Longhorn ever to pass for more than 300 YDS and rush for 100 YDS in the same game. Texas is only allowing 15 PPG, including last weeks 39 PTS to Texas AM. This defense is allowing less than 265 YPG. Over their last 6 games, the Longhorns have outscored their opposition by an average of 31 PTS.
Texas is 7-2-1 ATS last 10 neutral site games.
Over is 4-0 last 4 conference games.
Key Injuries - CB Deon Beasley (concussion) is probable.
DL Calvin Howell (concussion) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 31 (Side of the Day)