NCAA Foots Week 3

BSKI !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

3*: 3-0, +9.00
2*: 2-2, -0.40
1*: 4-7, -3.00
Year: 9-9, +5.60

September 13, 2007
West Virginia at Maryland
Selection: Maryland +17.5

I think I’ll go ahead and play the points here in this weekday matchup, although the moneyline when it will be released will be intriguing as well. If you haven’t noticed, I like to focus on certain angles, this one being revenge. West Virginia took out Maryland last year early in the year by a score of 45-28. West Virginia, also a –17 point favorite in that game, scored 4 touchdowns in the first quarter, something that didn’t happen to Maryland too often, with the way they run their offense/tempo. WVU was also able to recover a fumble in the endzone, taking a touchdown away from Maryland, and were also able to have a pretty long kickoff return for a touchdown. Take away one of those elements, and Maryland gets a cover last year, and then this line is probably in the 14-15 range this year. Take Maryland RB, Keon Lattimore, for instance: “They beat us so bad, they were talking trash.”

Obviously, both teams are working on a short week. However, I’d have to believe that West Virginia’s short week is a little more gruesome. Having to muster up the energy to come back from a close game at halftime to eventually runaway from Marshall in the hot and humid weather should take it’s toll on the short week. Maryland, however, has looked lackadaisical in it’s first two games against lesser competition. The fact is, this is Steffy’s first real test at the collegiate level, and he will be tested well. Backing a quarterback on national tv, during the week, coming off a short week, is a tough spot to play, but as long as it comes with 17+ points, I’m happy.

When analyzing this game from a team vs. team standpoint, I would think it would be in the best interest of Maryland football to pound both of their 223 running backs against a team playing on a short week, and against a team that is more than likely fatigued. You saw what Slaton did last year, keep him off the field this year. Maryland did have one of the best offensive lines in the ACC, and it can be done. And the lead blocking FB, is a transfer from WVU, he knows what’s at stake in this rivalry game. And you do that by playing conservatively, and smart – the same way Maryland has been in their first two games this year against worse competition. Just do the little things, and keep it close, and that’s what I expect here.

Honestly, I thought the game would open/close around 13.5 to 14. Maybe I looked into the revenge angle a wee little bit here, but in a rivalry contest, a game that’s been sold out for a year, and a game where both teams have quite a bit at stake, I like the position with the points, I like the revenge angle w/ a DD dog at home, and I like the fact that Maryland has shown very little to it’s opponents this year that it’ll be able to surprise WVU on a few instances in this game. Yes, it’s Maryland’s first test, but if you look at Maryland’s schedule, this is probably their best chance to pull the upset this year. I think I’ll take the points…

2* Maryland +17.5

September 19, 2007
Southern Miss at East Carolina
Selection: Southern Miss –1

I’ve had this game penciled in since Week 1 when East Carolina gave Virginia Tech a pretty decent ballgame. I knew, for that sole fact, this line right here this week would have some value. It all starts w/ my pre-season rankings, I have Southern Miss at #1 in the conference, East Carolina at #4 in the conference. Add in the fact of revenge from last year’s East Carolina victory at Southern Miss, and you have another decent angle here. Also a lookahead angle for East Carolina, w/ WVU on tap for next week. East Carolina hasn’t beaten Southern Miss since 1994 at home, and is currently on a 2-14 mark at home against Southern Miss.

I’d really like to break it down a bit more, but with my pre-season rankings, the revenge angle, the look ahead angle, and Southern Miss’ great track record on the road at East Carolina, that’s pretty much all I need to make it probably my play of the week.

3* Southern Miss –1

September 15, 2007
Virginia at North Carolina
Selection: Virginia +3

Simply put, Butch Davis has come out and said that they key to winning/losing is keeping the opposing quarterback contained over the course of the game. They were unable to contain Sewell (VA QB) last year (9 rush, 40 yards, TD), so I don’t think they’ll be able to this year either. I had this game at a PK, with Virginia finishing #4 in the conference, with North Carolina at #5. I’ll take the points all year long w/ those pre-season rankings. Virginia returns a 3-4 defense w/ many of its starters (all 4 linebackers, all-american end, all conference end, and two cornerbacks) and goes up against a young and in-experienced offense. Virginia comes in on a 7-1-1 ats as road pups, 8-3 ats as road pups in conference, while Carolina is 2-9 ats its last 11 as home favorites. Gonna take my chance w/ the mobile QB in this one…

1* Virginia +3

September 15, 2007
Wyoming at Boise State
Selection: Wyoming +12.5

Well, I was hoping to get more here, but anything above a +10 I’m happy with. I thought it was crazy that Boise was even favored last year, and again, I think the line is yet inflated due to their success on blue carpet in the last few years. I did not agree w/ Boise being ranked early in the season, and while I may eat my words toward the end of the year, I just don’t think they are that good of a football team. While I think that Boise is on the down slope, their opponent this week is on the upswing in my opinion.

Take a look at Wyoming’s schedule. Home games against both BYU and TCU. It’s very possible this team can win the MWC. In fact, they won’t be dogged this much the rest of the year either, which is why I’m going to give them a shot here. Boise State looked sluggish against the Pac-10 foe Washington last week, and much of that defense what they saw is similar to Wyoming. Wyoming has only allowed an average of 69 yards on the ground this year in two games against Utah State and Virginia. Nothing to be proud of, but this team is built around it’s defense and they’ve only allowed 3 third-down conversions this season, which ranks 2nd in the nation.

If you take a look at last year’s game, Wyoming played well. The main difference in the ballgame was a interception return for a touchdown that gave Boise the lead and eventual win. They held Boise to 246 total yards (116 Zabransky, 119 Johnson), and even outgained them on the offensive side of the ball too.

This is a team that has showed a lot of improvement on both sides of the ball and I got the better defense out for revenge getting double digits. I’ll bite…

1* Wyoming +12.5

Miami OH +
This is Miami OH’s superbowl, and they have done well in it over the last few years. Cincy coach Brian Kelly came out in public and said some stuff about how Cincy shouldn’t be playing “lowly” MAC teams. I got a ton of respect for Kelly, but you can’t give the opponent added motivation. That, and for some odd friggin reason, I put this Miami OH team at #1 in the MAC in the pre-season and they’re living up to it so far.

Iowa State +
I don’t care how bad Iowa State sucks; I will gladly take the plus side on this game. Iowa has Wisky on deck and the place will be full. Hopefully that crowd gives the home squad a little added motivation.

Western Michigan +
The way I look at it, Missouri’s gonna have to put up at least 52, because WMU should at least score 25-30 on this putrid Mizzou defense. WMU’s been tested already this year by WVU, rushing offense, and Indiana, a bit of both type of offense, and now they can show their true colors against a pass defense.

Washington +
Having the toughest schedule in division 1 this year hasn’t taken its toll yet, therefore I’ll side w/ the home pup. Worked last week, and I’ll try again, but I’m gonna tease this one.

Ball State +
Seems as if this offense got of its heels last week and picked it up like it was supposed to the first game of the year. I’ll back a nice QB who can throw anywhere on the road…

Kentucky +
Hunch – that’s all it is. And another home pup…But, I’ll tease it w/ another game…

Final Card Looks Like this

3* Southern Miss -1
2* Maryland +7.5
2* Ball State +7.5
1* Virginia +3
1* Wyoming +12.5
1* Miami OH +10
1* Iowa State +17.5
1* Western Michigan +21.5
1* Ball State ML +260
1* Teaser (Washington +10, Kentucky +13)

Gl…