Boise State at Hawaii
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
There are eight college football games on Friday’s card, highlighted by a WAC showdown between Hawaii and Boise State with a likely BCS berth at stake. Kick-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern with ESPN2 providing television coverage.
Most sports books are listing the Warriors as 3 ½-point favorites, while our friends at Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the total at 71. Gamblers can back the Broncos to win outright for a plus 145 return (risk $100 to win $145).
Hawaii (10-0 straight up, 3-5 against the spread) has won 20 of its last 21 games since dropping a 41-34 decision at Boise State last season. The Warriors remained undefeated last week by collecting a thrilling 28-26 win at Nevada, but they failed to hook up their backers as 5 ½-point favorites.
Dan Kelly drilled a 45-yard field goal with 11.7 seconds left to lift June Jones’ team into the win column. With Colt Brennan (concussion) sitting out all but two plays, Tyler Graunke filled in admirably, throwing for 358 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Wolf Pack.
Hawaii WR Davone Bess hauled in 12 receptions for 137 yards, while Ryan Grice-Mullen finished with 10 catches for 79 yards, including a 22-yards TD grab from Graunke.
Boise State (10-1 SU, 6-4 ATS) has won 23 of 24 games under second-year head coach Chris Petersen. The only loss came back in Week 2 when the Broncos dropped a 24-10 decision at Washington as three-point favorites.
Since then, Boise has won nine in a row, compiling a 6-3 spread record in the process. The Broncos have taken the cash in four consecutive games, winning by 13 points or more in the quartet of WAC games.
Petersen’s team is off a 58-14 win over Idaho as a 34-point ‘chalk.’ Taylor Tharp connected on 22-of-31 passes for 282 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions. Ian Johnson added 108 yards rushing and a pair of TD scampers.
Tharp has been outstanding in his lone season as the starting QB as a senior. He has completed 69.1 percent of his throws for 2,839 yards, with a 27/8 touchdown-interception ratio. Jeremy Childs is Tharp’s favorite target, hauling in 74 receptions for 943 yards and nine TDs.
Johnson hasn’t duplicated the numbers he produced as an All-American last season, partly due to a bruised kidney that forced him to miss a couple of games. Nevertheless, Johnson has still managed 944 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. He’s averaging 5.2 yards per carry.
Jeremy Avery has also produced as the back-up RB, running for 563 yards and eight TDs. Avery averages 6.6 YPC. However, he is “questionable” this week with an ankle sprain.
Like Johnson, Brennan hasn’t been able to accomplish the same things – at least not from a stats perspective – he did during his record-setting junior campaign. An ankle sprain back in September and the concussion suffered two weeks ago in a 37-30 home win over Fresno St. have caused Brennan to miss playing time.
He has still thrown for 3,237 yards with a 69.1 completion percentage. Brennan has a 28/12 TD-INT ratio compared to 58/12 in 2006.
Grice-Mullen, a junior who was fourth on the team in receptions and receiving yards in ’06, has a team-high 85 catches for 1,159 yards and 10 TDs. Bess has 81 receptions for 983 yards and 10 TDs.
Hawaii RB RB Kealoha Pilares will return to the lineup after missing back-to-back games with a sprained knee. Pilares has a team-high 50 carries for 294 yards and three touchdowns. He averages 5.9 YPC.
Boise St. is 2-0 both SU and ATS as an underdog under Petersen, beating Utah and Oklahoma outright in ‘dog spots. Dating back to 2002, Boise is 4-4-1 ATS in nine games as an underdog.
When these teams met last year on the blue carpet, Johnson torched the Warriors for 179 yards rushing and two TDs. Brennan threw five TD passes, but it wasn’t enough in the aforementioned 41-34 loss as 14-point road underdogs.
Boise won 44-41 in its last trip to Hawaii, rallying from a 20-7 deficit at intermission to pick up the ‘non-covering’ triumph as an 11-point ‘chalk.’
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Boise St. owns an 8-1 spread record in its last nine games played on Friday.
--Boise has won six in a row over Hawaii, posting a 4-2 ATS record during that stretch. However, the Warriors have covered the number in the last two encounters.
--Since 2004, Hawaii has cashed tickets at a 12-7 clip as a home favorite.
--The ‘over’ is 23-8-1 in Hawaii’s last 32 WAC games.
--The ‘over’ is 4-1 in the last five Boise-Hawaii games.
--If Hawaii can beat Boise St. and Washington (next week's foe), look for the Warriors to face Georgia in the Sugar Bowl unless a slew of upsets allow the Dawgs to sneak into the BCS Championship Game.
--You know how Alabama head coach Nick Saban often makes reference to “the process” of building a championship team. Well, after listening to his rant Monday that was seemingly directed at his players and the media, I’d like for him to process my middle finger. No wonder they call this clown Nick Satan in South Florida.
Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Akron Zips
- The Central Michigan Chippewas and the Akron Zips will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at Rubber Bowl.
Oddsmakers currently have the Chippewas listed as 3-point favorites versus the Zips, while the game's total is sitting at 63.
Central Michigan gave up 20 fourth-quarter points in Week 12's 48-45 loss to Eastern Michigan, falling as 14.5-point home favorites. The 93 points scored were OVER the posted total of 66.5.
Dan LeFevour went 26-for-37 for 246 yards and one touchdown, and he also ran for 88 yards and three touchdowns. Justin Gardner had seven receptions for 65 yards for the Chippewas.
John Mackey had two interceptions for Akron as they fell 7-0 to Miami-Ohio last time out.
Miami-Ohio couldn't cover as 7.5-point favorites as the game played well under the 52-point total set by oddsmakers.
Team records:
Central Michigan: 6-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS
Akron: 4-7 SU, 6-5 ATS
Central Michigan most recently:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing within the conference are 8-2
Akron most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on turf are 4-6
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Central Michigan's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Central Michigan's last 7 games on the road
Central Michigan is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Akron
Central Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Akron
Akron is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Akron's last 13 games at home
Akron is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Akron is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Central Michigan
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Colorado Buffaloes
- The Nebraska Cornhuskers and the Colorado Buffaloes will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at Folsom Field.
Oddsmakers currently have the Buffaloes listed as 3½-point favorites versus the Cornhuskers, while the game's total is sitting at 60.
Joe Ganz threw for over 500 yards with seven touchdowns in Week 11, as the Cornhuskers defeated the Kansas State Wildcats 73-31. The Cornhuskers won the game as a 7.5-point underdog at home, and the combined score sailed OVER the posted total of 62.
Ganz completed 30-of-41 passes for 509 yards, and Frantz Hardy racked up 83 yards receiving with three touchdowns.
The Buffaloes were edged 31-28 by the Iowa State Cyclones in Week 11, as 4-point favorites. The combined score sailed OVER the posted total of 48.
Cody Hawkins threw for 275 yards with two touchdowns, while rushing for another in a losing effort.
Current streak:
Colorado has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Nebraska: 5-6 SU, 3-8 ATS
Colorado: 5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS
Nebraska most recently:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on grass are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing within the conference are 4-6
Colorado most recently:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the conference are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Nebraska's last 6 games on the road
Nebraska is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Colorado
Nebraska is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Nebraska's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games at home
Colorado is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Nebraska
Colorado is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Nebraska
Mississippi Rebels vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
- The fans at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field will be treated to a game between the Mississippi Rebels and the Mississippi State Bulldogs when they take their seats on Friday.
Oddsmakers currently have the Bulldogs listed as 7-point favorites versus the Rebels, while the game's total is sitting at 48.
Mississippi had four turnovers in Week 12's 41-24 loss to LSU, falling as 20.5-point home underdogs. The 65 points scored were OVER the posted total of 53.5.
Brent Schaeffer was 14-for-29 for 223 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, while rushing for 93 yards and a score for the Rebels.
Mississippi State had five turnovers in Week 12's 45-32 loss at Arkansas, falling as 13.5-point road underdogs. The 76 points scored were OVER the posted total of 52.
Wesley Carroll went 29-for-52 for 421 yards, four touchdowns and four interceptions, while Jamayel Smith had 209 receiving yards and two scores for the Bulldogs.
Team records:
Mississippi: 3-8 SU, 5-5 ATS
Mississippi State: 6-5 SU, 5-5 ATS
Mississippi most recently:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on grass are 0-10
After outgaining opponent are 3-7
When playing within the conference are 1-9
Mississippi State most recently:
When playing in November are 3-7
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 3-7
When playing within the conference are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Mississippi's last 5 games when playing Mississippi State
Mississippi is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Mississippi State
Mississippi is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Mississippi State
Mississippi is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Mississippi State's last 5 games when playing Mississippi
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Mississippi State's last 6 games
Mississippi State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Mississippi
Mississippi State is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games at home
Wyoming Cowboys vs. Colorado State Rams
- The fans at Hughes Stadium will be treated to a game between the Wyoming Cowboys and the Colorado State Rams when they take their seats on Friday.
Oddsmakers currently have the Rams listed as 3½-point favorites versus the Cowboys, while the game's total is sitting at 48.
Wyoming gave up 497 yards in Week 12's 35-10 loss to BYU, falling as 10.5-point home underdogs. The 45 points scored were UNDER the posted total of 46.
Karsten Sween went 17-for-29 for 217 yards and a pick, while Michael Ford caught seven passes for 71 yards for the Cowboys.
The Rams put up 28 points in the first half on Saturday and cruised from there to a 42-34 win over the Georgia Southern Eagles. The oddsmakers stayed away from that contest altogether - no line or total was posted for the matchup.
Current streak:
Wyoming has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Wyoming: 5-6 SU, 2-8-1 ATS
Colorado State: 2-9 SU, 4-6 ATS
Wyoming most recently:
When playing in November are 2-8
When playing on turf are 5-5
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing within the conference are 4-6
Colorado State most recently:
When playing in November are 2-8
When playing on turf are 2-8
After being outgained are 1-9
When playing within the conference are 1-9
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Wyoming's last 7 games on the road
Wyoming is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Colorado State
Wyoming is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Wyoming is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Colorado State
Colorado State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Wyoming
Colorado State is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Wyoming
Colorado State is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home
Colorado State is 2-16 SU in its last 18 games
Toledo Rockets vs. Bowling Green Falcons
- The Toledo Rockets and the Bowling Green Falcons will both be gunning for a victory on Friday when they meet at Doyt Perry Stadium.
Oddsmakers currently have the Falcons listed as 7-point favorites versus the Rockets, while the game's total is sitting at 73.
The Rockets were pounded 41-20 by the Ball State Cardinals last time out, as 7-point underdogs. The 61 points were UNDER the night's posted total of 69.
The Rockets managed to outrush the Cardinals 214 yards to 181 yards, but could not hang on in the second half.
Bowling Green scored 17 second-quarter points in Week 12's 31-17 win at Buffalo, coming in as 1.5-point road underdogs. The 48 points scored were UNDER the posted total of 61.5.
Tyler Sheehan was 20-for-29 for 248 yards and two touchdowns, while Freddie Barnes caught ten passes for 113 yards and a score for the Falcons.
Current streak:
Bowling Green has won 3 straight games.
Team records:
Toledo: 5-6 SU, 4-6 ATS
Bowling Green: 7-4 SU, 6-4 ATS
Toledo most recently:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on grass are 3-7
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing within the conference are 5-5
Bowling Green most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on grass are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the conference are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toledo's last 6 games when playing Bowling Green
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toledo's last 5 games
Toledo is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Bowling Green
Toledo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Bowling Green
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Bowling Green's last 6 games when playing Toledo
Bowling Green is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Bowling Green is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Bowling Green's last 7 games
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. LSU Tigers
- The Arkansas Razorbacks and the LSU Tigers will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at Tiger Stadium.
Oddsmakers currently have the Tigers listed as 13½-point favorites versus the Razorbacks, while the game's total is sitting at 59.
Arkansas forced five Mississippi State turnovers in Week 12's 45-31 win, covering the the 13.5-point home spread. The 76 points scored were OVER the posted total of 52.
Casey Dick was 14-for-17 for 199 yards and four touchdowns, and Darren McFadden ran 28 times for 88 yards for the Razorbacks.
LSU forced four Mississippi turnovers in Week 12's 41-24 win over Mississippi, failing to cover cover the 20.5-point road spread. The 65 points scored were OVER the posted total of 53.5.
Matt Flynn went 17-for-25 for 167 yards, and Charles Scott ran for 66 yards and a major for the Tigers.
Current streak:
LSU has won 4 straight games.
Team records:
Arkansas: 7-4 SU, 6-4 ATS
LSU: 10-1 SU, 4-6-1 ATS
Arkansas most recently:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing within the conference are 4-6
LSU most recently:
When playing in November are 10-0
When playing on grass are 9-1
After being outgained are 9-1
When playing within the conference are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
Arkansas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Arkansas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arkansas's last 9 games on the road
Arkansas is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
LSU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LSU's last 5 games
LSU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arkansas
LSU is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games
Texas Longhorns vs. Texas A&M Aggies
- The Texas Longhorns and the Texas A&M Aggies will both be trying to pick up a win on Friday when they battle at Kyle Field.
Oddsmakers currently have the Longhorns listed as 7-point favorites versus the Aggies, while the game's total is sitting at 60.
Colt McCoy threw four touchdowns and ran for a pair in Week 11, as the Longhorns defeated the Texas Tech Red Raiders 59-43. The Longhorns covered the 6.5-point spread at home, while the final score sailed OVER the posted total of 65.
McCoy completed 21-of-30 passes for 270 yards, and finished with 52 yards rushing off 11 carries in the win.
The Aggies were defeated 40-26 by the Missouri Tigers in Week 11, as 18-point underdogs. The combined 66 points made it OVER the posted total of 61.
Stephen McGee threw two touchdown passes, and finished 18-of-28 passes for 251 yards in the loss.
Current streak:
Texas has won 5 straight games.
Texas A&M has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Texas: 9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS
Texas A&M: 6-5 SU, 4-6 ATS
Texas most recently:
When playing in November are 8-2
When playing on grass are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing within the conference are 6-4
Texas A&M most recently:
When playing in November are 2-8
When playing on grass are 6-4
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Texas is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Texas's last 14 games on the road
Texas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Texas A&M
Texas A&M is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas A&M's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas A&M's last 6 games when playing Texas
Texas A&M is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Boise State Broncos vs. Hawaii Warriors
- The fans at Aloha Stadium will be treated to a game between the Boise State Broncos and the Hawaii Warriors when they take their seats on Friday.
Oddsmakers currently have the Warriors listed as 3-point favorites versus the Broncos, while the game's total is sitting at 75.
Boise State outscored Idaho 34-0 in the second half of Week 12's 58-14 win, covering the 34.5-point home spread. The 72 points scored were OVER the posted total of 63.5.
Taylor Tharp was 22-for-31 for 282 yards and four touchdowns, and Ian Johnson ran 21 times for 108 yards and two majors for the Broncos.
Tyler Graunke tossed two touchdown passes last time out to lead the Warriors to a 28-26 road win over the Nevada Wolf Pack.
The Warriors failed to cover the 5-point spread in that contest, while the combined score fell well UNDER the night's posted total (75).
Current streak:
Boise State has won 9 straight games.
Hawaii has won 10 straight games.
Team records:
Boise State: 10-1 SU, 6-4 ATS
Hawaii: 10-0 SU, 3-5 ATS
Boise State most recently:
When playing in November are 9-1
When playing on turf are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing within the conference are 10-0
Hawaii most recently:
When playing in November are 8-2
When playing on turf are 10-0
After outgaining opponent are 10-0
When playing within the conference are 10-0
A few trends to consider:
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Hawaii
Boise State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Boise State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Hawaii is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Hawaii is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hawaii's last 5 games when playing Boise State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hawaii's last 6 games
Next up:
Hawaii home to Washington, Saturday, December 1