NCAA News and Notes Saturday 11/14

College Football Cheat Sheet
By Marc Lawrence

And then there were six. Undefeated college football teams that is, all of who are in action this week. And as you might expect, all heavily favored to remain unbeaten.

Here are the teams currently ranked in the Top 25 of the current USA Today/Coaches Poll. Listed below as stats, fact and trends surrounding this weeks football card. Home team in CAPS. All results are ATS - Against The Spread - unless noted otherwise

Thursday, November 12th

(24) South Florida at RUTGERS

Bulls: 5-1 off SU dog win 5-2 w/ rest 0-4 Thursdays 1-6 Game Nine 1-4 A w/ conf rev 49-16 home loss last year to Knights was worst of season for USF and worst ever in Big East competition

Knights: 7-1 H w/ rest 4-1 vs conf rev 0-7 pick/favs 4 < pts 4-9 H off SU dog win 2-5 favs off road dog win

Friday, November 13th

West Virginia at (5) CINCINNATI

Mountaineers: SERIES: Visitor 5-0-2 6-0 as conf dogs 6 > pts 0-4 w/ conf rev 1-6 weekdays 1-3-1 Game Nine 1-3 after Louisville

Bearcats: 6-0 weekdays 4-0-1 Game Ten 5-2 in 2nd of 3+ HG 10-4 conf favs 14 < pts undefeated favorites of more than 8 points, off four SU and ATS wins in last four games, are 16-29 ATS

Saturday, November 14th

(1) Florida at SO CAROLINA

Gators: 7-2 DD favs vs conf rev 1-4 Game Ten away 1-4 vs conf before non-conf HG 3-7 conf RFs 14 > pts

Gamecocks: SERIES: Host 5-2 4-1 as DD HDs 2-5 H off BB RG 3-7 w/ conf rev Spurrier: 27-20 SU vs undefeated opp / 9-3 as dog 13 or more points

(2) Texas at BAYLOR

Longhorns: SERIES: 4-1 L5 A *14-3 vs conf of non-conf SU win 14 > pts 4-1 bef Kansas 7-2-1 Game Ten 1-4 conf RFs 20 > pts have held five of last six, including each of last three, opponents to season low yards

Bears: 5-1 bef Texas A&M 4-1 dogs > 17 pts w/ conf rev 5-2 HDs 21 > pts 1-12 Game Ten need wins in two of last three to become bowl eligible

(3) Alabama at MISSISSIPPI STATE

Crimson Tide: SERIES: Visitor 6-2 6-1 RFs vs conf rev 10-2 A off 3+ HG 1-3-1 Game Ten 4-10 aft LSU lined teams after facing LSU are 25-26 SU and 20-30-1 ATS in their next game (4-4 SU and 2-6 ATS this season). When facing a rested opponent in these games they are 2-7 SU and ATS.

Bulldogs: 5-1 H w/ rest 4-1 as DD HDs 8-3 off conf dog win Mullen: 3-0 vs opp off back-to-back wins

(14)Utah at (4) TCU

Utes: SERIES: 5-1 SU forever (loss by three pts) / 3-0 L3 5-0 conf dogs vs rev 10-1 dogs 7 > pts (16-3 dogs if .750 or greater vs .600 or greater) 9-1 after New Mexico

Horned Frogs: 4-0 before Wyoming 4-1 w/ conf rev 2-6 off SU road win 21 > pts undefeated favorites off a SU and ATS win are 3-15 ATS versus a winning team off a win that was undefeated during the regular season last year

Idaho at (6) BOISE STATE

Vandals: 4-1 dogs 28 > pts 0-7 A off BB HG 0-5 LRG 0-5 before Utah St 0-3 after Fresno St after 7-0 ATS start Spuds are 0-3 ATS last three games

Broncos: SERIES: 3-0 L3 H 4-0 off Friday gm 6-1-1 conf favs 28 > pts 5-2 before Utah St

(7) Georgia Tech at DUKE

Yellow Jackets: SERIES: 4-0 L4 5-1 RFs 6 > pts 4-1 LRG 2-6 Game Eleven favs 2-6 favs 13 < pts vs conf rev win here clinches berth in ACC title game

Blue Devils: 4-1-1 dogs of BB RG 1-4 before Mia-Fla 1-3 Game Ten 5-15-1 L21 HDs, including 2-10 off SU and ATS loss

(13) Iowa at (8) OHIO STATE

Hawkeyes: 6-1 LRG 5-2 after Northwestern 0-3 Game Eleven have held five foes to season low yards, including last three in a row

Buckeyes: SERIES: 7-1 L8 / 5-0 H 11-0 after Penn St 3-7 before Michigan held last two foes to season low yards

Notre Dame at (9) PITTSBURGH

Fighting Irish: SERIES: 4-1 L5 A / dog 4-0 SU and ATS L4 11-1 RDs 8 < pts 5-2 vs Big East 0-5 after Navy 5-1 ITS last six games

Panthers: 5-1 after Syracuse 5-1 in 3rd straight HG 0-3 before WVA 2-6 HFs < 8 pts Wannstedt: 1-6 HF vs .666 or greater opp

Stanford at (10) USC

Cardinal: ERIES: 4-1 L5 / 4-1 L5 A *4-1 conf dogs 14 > pts 7-2 w/ conf rev 1-7 A in between HG 2-10 away off SU dog win

Trojans: 10-1 HFs 15 < pts 7-1 before UCLA 4-1 in 1st of 3+ HG 1-3 off BB RG Trojans have been favored more than 20 points in this series last six meetings

Louisiana Tech at (11) LSU

Bulldogs: 0-3-1 in 1st of BB RG 1-10 non-conf RDs 21 > pts 1-4 off weekday gm 1-4 before Fresno St

Tigers: SERIES: 2-0 L2 11-3 non-conf HFs 20 > pts 1-8 Game Ten home 2-6 after Alabama

(12) Houston at CENTRAL FLORIDA

Cougars: allowed season high - or 2nd high - yards in five of last six games

Knights: SERIES: host 2-0 SU and ATS own 114 yards the better defense

(15) Miami Fla at NORTH CAROLINA

Hurricanes: 1-7 as conf RFs 7 < Pts 2-6 A off DD conf home win 2-5 Game Ten revenge from 4-pt home loss last year

Tar Heels: 10-1 as conf HDs 1-5-1 vs conf rev 4-10 in 2nd BB HG No. 5 overall defense in land allows 250 YPG loss of star RB Shaun Draughn for season to shoulder injury

Arizona State at (16) OREGON

Sun Devils: 7-2 in 1st of BB RG 1-4 after USC 2-5 as DD conf RDs 2-5 before UCLA

Ducks: SERIES: 4-0 L4 7-1 conf HFs 15 > pts 4-1 after Stanford 9-3 H vs conf rev 4-10 fav off SU fav loss 0-4 Game Ten

Indiana at (17) PENN STATE

Hoosiers: 4-0 aft Wisconsin 1-11 LRG 1-6 Game Eleven 2-9 A w/ conf rev 3-7 conf dogs 20 > pts Hoosiers needs wins in each of final two games to go bowling (home vs Purdue next week surrendered season high - or 2nd high - yardage in five of last six games

Nittany Lions: SERIES: 5-2 L7 7-1 before Mich St 6-1 Game Eleven 18-2 SU and 15-5 ATS LHG vs con opp LHG 2-5 after Ohio St

Texas Tech at (18) OKLAHOMA STATE

Red Raiders: SERIES: 7-0-1 when OSU off win / 6-2-1 L9 5-2 after Kansas 5-2 Game Ten 0-5 SU and ATS LRG 1-4 A w/ rest 1-4 conf RDs 8 < pts

Cowboys: SERIES: 2-0 L2 H 6-0 Game Ten favs 4-1 H vs rested opp 1-4 before Colorado 6-2 SU and ATS home off previous home loss

(19) Arizona at CALIFORNIA

Wildcats: revenge game with Oregon on deck own better offense and better defense

Golden Bears: SERIES: 3-0 L3 H revenge from SU RF loss last season

(21) Virginia Tech at MARYLAND

Hokies: SERIES: 4-0 SU and ATS L4 6-1 as DD RFs 6-1 off weekday gm 4-1 after E Carolina 3-1 in 2nd of BB RG 2-7 vs conf rev Hokies 0-3-1 away from Blacksburg this season

Terrapins: 15-3-1 off back-to-back losses, including 6-0 ATS at home 4-1 off BB RG 4-1 before Fla St 6-2 H w/ conf rev 2-6 as DD conf HDs

(22) BYU at NEW MEXICO

Cougars: SERIES: 3-0 A / 13-3 SU S/1993 with no wins by more than 25 points 1-8 RFs before Falcons

Lobos: 11-1 dog w/revenge vs opp off back-to-back wins 0-4 SU and ATS H this season

(25) Auburn at GEORGIA

Tigers: double-deuce offense (230 yards rushing and 220 yards passing)

Bulldogs:1-9 L10 as reg season favs

Public Enemies - Week 11
By Kevin Rogers

Only three weeks remain in the college football regular season and there are teams that are turning into public darlings over the last few weeks. This week, we'll take a look at four games, including a battle of suddenly hot Big 10 teams.

Northwestern at Illinois (-4½, 48) - 12:00 PM EST

The Wildcats knocked off the last unbeaten inside the Big 10 by shocking Iowa this past Saturday, 17-10, as two-touchdown underdogs. Northwestern has won four of its last six, but the 'Cats have scored 17 points or less in four of the last five. The Illini, meanwhile, have caught fire, as Ron Zook's club is coming off consecutive wins over Michigan and Minnesota.

Illinois is 3-0 ATS the last three games, but the Illini was listed as underdogs in each contest. As a favorite, Illinois is 2-8 ATS the last two seasons, including an 0-3 ATS mark as 'chalk' in 2009.

Northwestern blew out Illinois to wrap up last season, 27-10, as three-point home underdogs, as the Wildcats are 8-3 ATS since 2008 when receiving points.

VI capper Joe Nelson says the Wildcats are worth a look, but it may be too late to back them. "Northwestern remains a viable underdog, but coming off a big win there is little value on the Wildcats and the letdown potential is serious. Northwestern has six wins and another victory would certainly help the bowl cause, so this is a team that will still be playing hard, but Illinois should have the superior squad and now with a little late season momentum the Illini are out to prove something in their final Big Ten contest," Nelson explains.

Missouri at Kansas State (PK, 51) - 12:30 PM EST

The Wildcats weren't expected to do much when Bill Snyder was brought back to Manhattan. Following a slow start, K-State is now in the running to play for the Big 12 championship. The Wildcats have taken four of their last six, while going 6-1 ATS the last seven games.

Mizzou started fast out of the gate, going 4-0. However, Gary Pinkel's club has dropped four of five, with the lone victory coming at Colorado on Halloween. Three of those losses came by fifteen points or more, with the worst defeat coming by the smallest margin - an eight-point home setback to Baylor last week.

Nelson says the running game will be key for K-State, "The Wildcats are rushing for 190 yards per game this season, but the real strength of the team has been on the other side as few teams have run with success against K-State. Missouri does not run the ball well and should have a major deficit on the ground which will make it tough to win on the road."

Stanford at USC (-10½, 56½) - 3:30 PM EST

The Cardinal pulled off one of the great upsets ever back in 2007, winning outright as 39-point road underdogs at USC, 24-23. Stanford returns to the Coliseum on Saturday, but this Cardinal squad is much improved from that team two years ago. USC, meanwhile, still has an outside shot of winning the Pac-10, but the Trojans need to win out plus receive some major help.

USC has covered only two of nine games this season, while getting outgained in each of the last three contests. Stanford has covered four of the last five meetings with USC, including last season's 45-23 home loss as 24-point underdogs.

Nelson feels that USC's efforts this season may be overrated at best, "The Trojans have looked average in recent weeks and the best wins on the year against Ohio State and Cal, are not as impressive as they once were."

However, Jim Harbaugh's team has struggled away from Palo Alto and Nelson says that this one is still tough to call, "Stanford has been very tough at home but the Cardinal is 1-3 S/U and ATS in road games. USC's uninspired recent efforts have been partially due to brutal scheduling as four of the last five games came on the road. Catching Stanford off a big win and with a window of opportunity still there in the conference, USC should finish strong with the final three at home and a still dominant defense."

Miami (FL) (-3, 43) at North Carolina - 3:30 PM EST

Butch Davis rebuilt the Miami program in the late 90's and turned the Canes into a powerhouse in the early part of this decade. UM has taken a couple steps back since the departure of Davis, but the Canes are back into national relevance this season thanks to a 7-2 record. However, the Canes are 0-2 against Davis since he arrived in Chapel Hill.

UNC is coming off solid consecutive wins over Virginia Tech and Duke to slowly salvage its season. In actuality, the Tar Heels should have won three straight, if UNC didn't give away a 24-6 lead against Florida State. The Heels do own one of the better defenses in college football, allowing 250 yards a game and just 15 ppg.

Miami's offense has been consistent all season long, as the 'over' has hit in each of the last three games, while UNC has drilled the 'under' in four of five conference games.

Nelson says that the Heels' defense is finally a good test for this Hurricanes' offense, "Coach Randy Shannon has never defeated UNC as the Heels won close games the past two years and the Hurricane offense has been much less impressive on the road. North Carolina has caught some breaks the last two weeks, but Miami has not proven to be balanced enough on offense to beat an exceptional defense."

Big Dogs Offer Value
By The Prez

This week's big underdogs (at least double digits) we think will cover.

South Carolina (+16) vs. Florida

You think I was kidding about the Gators? Steve Spurrier would love nothing more to salvage this season than to ruin his former school’s national title hopes. Frankly, Spurrier needs a good effort as he has been under fire a bit, and he has said he will take a bigger role in play-calling. The Gamecocks collapsed down the stretch last season and look like they are doing it again, having been pounded by Tennessee and Arkansas the past two games. This game really reminds me of the 2006 season, when South Carolina and Florida played on Nov. 11 of that year and the Gators needed a blocked field goal as time expired to avoid an upset and keep their national title hopes alive. And that one was in Gainesville, while this one is in Columbia, where South Carolina is 5-0 this season (2-3 ATS). I would also remind you that Florida hasn’t gone unbeaten in the SEC’s regular season since 1996 – but a win here would accomplish that rarity for any school.

Idaho (+31) at Boise State

I am flabbergasted at this line in all honesty. I realize that BSU has won 10 in a row over their intrastate rivals (all by at least 14 points) and has averaged 64.3 points in the past three meetings. And I also know that Idaho starting quarterback Nate Enderle will be a game-time decision after sitting out last week’s loss to Fresno State with a rotator cuff injury. Sophomore Brian Reader started against Fresno and nearly led the Vandals to a come-from-behind victory, throwing for 240 yards and two touchdowns in the game. But BSU will get everything Idaho has to give, as this is the chance for a program-defining victory for a team that has made some good strides this year. Idaho can score – it has reached 30 points in six of the past eight games. So assuming the Vandals even get 24, I don’t see BSU putting up 55. I think this stays under three touchdowns, actually, because Boise State might be looking ahead to a red-hot Nevada squad next week.

Louisiana Tech (+24) at LSU

The Tigers’ loss to Alabama last week ended their hopes in the SEC, so you have to expect a bit of a letdown in what looks like a yawner non-conference game. While Louisiana Tech has lost three games in a row, by a total of 13 points, it hung with Boise State last time out and has totaled 69 points in the past two games. LSU will be without leading rusher Charles Scott, who broke his collarbone last week. And QB Jordan Jefferson is iffy after leaving last week’s game as well. LSU, which has won 20 straight nonconference games, has won 17 of 18 all-time meetings in this series. It will be 18 of 19, but by less than 24.

Top 25 Cheat Sheet: Week 11
By MATT SEVERANCE

No. 1 Florida at South Carolina (+16, 42.5)

A Gator win would give the program its first unbeaten season in the SEC since 1996. UF has only covered once in its past four games overall but has crushed USC the past two seasons.

South Carolina might get starting defensive end Cliff Matthews back -- he missed last week’s loss to Arkansas. Coach Steve Spurrier says he will do more playcalling for the offense.

No. 2 Texas at Baylor (+23.5, 51)

The Longhorns have an average margin of victory of 37.3 points in the past 11 meetings. Cody Johnson has been anointed the new starting RB after two TDs last week against UCF. He replaces Fozzie Whittaker, who lost a fumble last week.

The Bears have been very improved the past few weeks. They outscored Nebraska 10-0 in the second half of a 20-10 loss two weeks ago and then won at Missouri last week for their first Big 12 road win in three years.

No. 3 Alabama at Mississippi State (+12.5, 43.5)

Alabama’s rush defense is No. 2 in the nation and Mississippi State is fairly one-dimensional. Coach Nick Saban has warned his players about a letdown all week in the wake of the LSU win and reminded them that Mississippi State has won two of three in this series.

The Bulldogs have the second-best back in the SEC in Anthony Dixon, who is averaging more yards per carry than the Tide’s Mark Ingram. Mississippi State, which has covered three games in a row, averages 219.2 yards per game on the ground.

No. 14 Utah at No. 4 TCU (-19.5, 45)

The Utes are an astonishing 7-0 all-time in games in which they and the opponent are both ranked in the AP poll. The Utah offensive line is strong, leading the way for RB Eddie Wise to rush for 100 yards-plus in a school-record six consecutive games.

TCU has dropped five of six all-time to Utah, including 13-10 last year, but the Frogs haven’t lost since. They have won 12 games in a row at home. TCU has outscored its opponents 178-25 in its last four games overall.

No. 23 West Virginia at No. 5 Cincinnati (-9, 53.5; Friday)

Cincy will stay with freshman QB Zack Collaros as the starter, as he gives the Bearcats a more mobile threat than Tony Pike, who will play some. UC has yet to lose a fumble this year and has thrown just four interceptions.

WVU’s unique 3-3-5 defense has held Cincinnati’s high-powered offense to five total TDs in the past two meetings. On offense, RB Noel Devine (who will play despite ankle injury) could have a big day against a UC defense that allowed 201 yards and four TDs to UConn on the ground last week.

Idaho at No. 6 Boise State (-31, 64)

The Vandals might be without starting QB Nathan Enderle after he sat out last week vs. Fresno State. Whether Enderle or backup Brian Reader starts will be a game-time call. The Idaho defense hasn’t forced a turnover in three games – that needs to change.

BSU has dominated its in-state foe, winning 10 in a row (all by at least 14) and scoring an average of 64.3 points in the past three. QB Kellen Moore should have a field day against an Idaho defense that allows more than 254 yards per game through the air and 20 TDs.

No. 7 Georgia Tech at Duke (+12, 60.5)

The ACC Coastal is Georgia Tech’s with a win. The Yellow Jackets have won the last five games in the series and 13 of the last 14. Red-hot QB Josh Nesbitt needs 183 rushing yards to become the first Jacket to ever pass for 1,000 yards and run for 1,000 yards in a season.

Blue Devils QB Thaddeus Lewis did struggle last week against North Carolina but has put up some big numbers this year. Georgia Tech’s defensive weakness is against the pass (10th in ACC).

No. 13 Iowa at No. 8 Ohio State (-17, 36.5)

With Ricky Stanzi done for the regular season, redshirt freshman QB James Vandenberg makes his first start against one of the nation’s best defenses. Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz is 0-3 in Columbus, with his teams having been outscored 91-27.

The Buckeyes lead the Big Ten in total defense, rushing defense and turnover margin, while the offense leads the conference in scoring. OSU has won 10 of 11 in the series, but the teams haven’t played since 2006.

Notre Dame at No. 9 Pittsburgh (-7, 58.5)

The Irish lost tight end Kyle Rudolph to a regular season-ending injury vs. Navy. He has 33 catches, second-most on the team, for 364 yards and three touchdowns. The Irish have lost their last seven to Top 10 foes, matching the longest streak in school history.

Pitt has won two of three against Notre Dame but hasn’t beaten the Irish in Pittsburgh since 1999. Panthers freshman Dion Lewis gets the publicity, but QB Bill Stull is on pace to have a better senior season than Dan Marino did at Pitt.

Stanford at No. 10 USC (-10.5, 54.5)

The only team to beat USC in the Trojans’ past 48 home games? Stanford in 2007. This year’s Cardinal defense isn’t very good, but USC’s offense has produced one touchdown in the past six quarters. The past two games, Southern Cal is 6-of-27 in third-down conversions.

The Trojans have never lost in November under Pete Carroll, but they likely won’t have top WR/PR Damian Williams because of an ankle sprain. Williams has caught 45 passes for 688 yards and five touchdowns. He also has returned two punts for touchdowns.

Louisiana Tech at No. 11 LSU (-25, 46.5)

The Bulldogs played Boise State very tough last time out, but they have three starters for sure out and nine more questionable for this one. One of those for sure out is the team’s best defensive player, safety Antonio Baker.

LSU has the nation’s longest non-conference winning streak at 22, hasn’t lost at home during homecoming since 2000 and has won 24 in a row against in-state foes. But the Tigers did lose starting RB Charles Scott for the season to injury last week. QB Jordan Jefferson says he thinks he will play despite also getting hurt against Alabama.

No. 12 Houston at Central Florida (+4.5, 62.5)

Is Houston lucky or good in the wake of that miracle against Tulsa last week? QB Case Keenum could have huge numbers against a UCF secondary which was torched for 470 by Colt McCoy last week.

The Knights, who are 6-2 ATS this season (just like Houston), are expecting starting QB Brett Hodges and RB Brynn Harvey to play Saturday after both sat out injured against Texas last week.

No. 15 Miami at North Carolina (+3.5, 42)

The Hurricanes have never won in Chapel Hill and will know by kickoff whether they are still in the running for the ACC title (depends on Georgia Tech result). UM will again be without top linebacker Sean Spence.

Since blowing the FSU game, North Carolina has won two in a row with impressive defense. And the Heels are averaging nearly 194 yards rushing per game in the past three but lost starting RB Shaun Draughn on his first carry vs. Duke. Ryan Houston picked up the load, rushing for 164 yards and will start.

Arizona State at No. 16 Oregon (-17.5, 48)

ASU, which has lost three in a row (2-1 ATS) turns to true freshman Brock Osweiler as the starting QB. It’s his first start, but he has seen action in many games and played the second half against USC last week.

LeGarrette Blount is back for the Ducks, but he isn’t expected to get many carries with LaMichael James’ emergence. ASU has the No. 6 run defense in the country, but the Sun Devils have lost the past four meetings in this series.

Indiana at No. 17 Penn State (-25, 51.5)

Despite being 0-3 on the road in the Big Ten, the Hoosiers were in position to win all three (Michigan, Northwestern, Iowa). However, top cornerback and kickoff returner Ray Fisher is out again this week.

The Nittany Lions have never lost to Indiana and won by 27 last year. Of PSU’s six home wins in the series, only one has been decided by fewer than 14 points. The Lions also have won nine home finales in a row.

Texas Tech at No. 18 Oklahoma State (-4, 60)

Taylor Potts is expected to start for the Red Raiders at quarterback, with former starter Steven Sheffield not quite 100 percent back from injury. TTU’s defense has 30 sacks, fourth in the county. The Red Raiders are 2-3 after a bye week under coach Mike Leach.

Oklahoma State’s offensive line is tied for the national lead with only four sacks allowed this season, and the Cowboys lead the Big 12 in rushing. The home team has won the past seven in the series.

No. 19 Arizona at California (-2, 55.5)

Arizona is tied with Oklahoma State for fewest sacks allowed with four and Cal has struggled to pressure the opposing QB this season. Star Wildcats RB Nic Grigsby is questionable after not playing last week.

Cal as a favorite is a bit of a surprise considering star RB Jahvid Best is sidelined. Backup Shane Vereen has been pretty good when starting. He’s posted 104 total yards per game in his four career starts.

Michigan at No. 20 Wisconsin (-8.5, 55)

The Wolverines have lost three in a row (0-3 ATS) and don’t have a road win yet this year. QB Tate Forcier only has two total TDs in the current losing streak and has been sacked 12 times. UM is 21-5-1 in Madison all-time.

The Badgers are 5-0 this season in games decided by eight points or less. Wisconsin star RB John Clay expects to play after leaving last week’s game against Indiana. The Badgers lead the conference with 208.8 rushing yards per game.

No. 21 Virginia Tech at Maryland (+17.5, 48)

The Hokies have won four in a row in this series, including 23-13 last year. Might Tech overlook the Terps? Maryland is the first team with a losing record that the Hokies have faced this year.

The Terps are sliding and may have to trot out sophomore quarterback Jamarr Robinson for his first career start with senior Chris Turner questionable with a knee injury. Coach Ralph Friedgen said Robinson would see time regardless.

No. 22 BYU at New Mexico (+26.5, 56.5)

The Cougars are 4-0 in this series under coach Bronco Mendenhall and haven’t lost in Albuquerque since 1980. BYU leads the nation in third-down conversions (59.5 percent).

UNM hasn’t beaten a ranked team at home since 1994 but did stay within 18 against BYU last year and the past four in Albuquerque have been decided by just 17 points. The Lobos, who have lost 13 games in a row, also were only down 10 at the half against Utah last week.

No. 25 Auburn at Georgia (-4, 57.5)

Auburn should be able to protect the ball, as Georgia has only six takeaways this season, worst in the nation. The Tigers can score as fast as anyone as Auburn has 21 TD drives of two minutes or less this season, second nationally to Houston's 22.

The Dawgs have won three in a row in the series but haven’t won four straight since 1948. Georgia often shoots itself in the foot, as it is tied with Texas Tech as the most penalized team in the nation.

Games to Watch - Week 11
By Chris David

Saturday - Georgia Tech at Duke

Georgia Tech (9-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) is one victory away from earning a trip to the ACC Championship but it will have to beat Duke (5-4 SU, 4-2 ATS) on Saturday. Kevin Rogers, handicapper on VegasInsider.com and ACC enthusiast weighs in on the surprising Blue Devils and their matchup this week. "Despite the fact Duke is out of contention to win the ACC Coastal, the Blue Devils have made significant strides in Ted Roof's second year. Duke's offense has made headlines this season behind QB Thaddeus Lewis, but the defense has allowed 19 points or less in each of the last three contests. Total players taking notes are well aware that Duke was an 'over' machine to begin the season, but have now finished 'under' the total in each of the last three games. Georgia Tech has won seven straight (6-1 ATS) since getting blown out at Miami in mid-September. The Jackets' rushing attack was limited against the Canes, but has blown up over the last seven weeks, outgaining opponents by at least 180 yards on the ground five times," explained Rogers. Duke is 2-2 SU at home and 1-0-1 ATS, with the losses coming against Richmond (16-24) and Virginia Tech (26-34). The Blue Devils are catching double digits against G-Tech at home on Saturday but don't be scared to take the Yellow Jackets. Paul Johnson's squad has won and covered five in a row in this series, and all five have come by double digits.

Florida at South Carolina

Will this be the week that top-ranked Florida (9-0 SU, 3-4 ATS) goes down? The Gators have never completed a perfect season in the SEC and a victory against South Carolina (6-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) would accomplish that feat. While SEC guru and VI handicapper Brian Edwards believes his Gators will win, he isn't too fancy about backing Florida as a double-digit road favorite. He explained, "South Carolina owns a 6-2 spread record in eight games as a double-digit underdog since Steve Spurrier took over in 2005. This is a huge revenge spot for the Gamecocks, who got spanked 56-6 at The Swamp last season. They are healthier this week as OT Jarriel King (concussion) and safety/kick returner Chris Culliver (shoulder) will be back in the lineup after missing last week's loss at Arkansas. Also, South Carolina still holds out hope that DE Cliff Matthews (shoulder) might play. But the 'Cocks appear to be in the midst of a third consecutive late-season swoon. They have lost by 18 and 17 points at Tennessee and at Arkansas, respectively, in back-to-back games. The Gators are 2-4-1 ATS in seven SEC games as double-digit favorites this year. I think gamblers should look at the double-digit 'dog or pass on the side." The SEC has seen its fair share of 'under' tickets this year but four of the last five in this series have gone 'over' the total.

Iowa at Ohio State

The Big 10 was shaken up last weekend as Iowa (9-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) lost its first game of the season to Northwestern and Ohio State (8-2 SU, 8-2 ATS) kept its conference hopes alive by beating Penn State 24-17 in Happy Valley. If the Buckeyes beat the Hawkeyes on Saturday, another Big 10 crown will be in the near future. Unfortunately for Iowa, it will have to do it without its starting quarterback Ricky Stanzi and the oddsmakers don't think the Hawks have a shot, listing them as 17-point road underdogs. Do they have any shot? VI handicapper Judd Hall doesn't believe so, especially the way OSU's defense has been playing. "Iowa has to go into a hostile environment with a redshirt freshman under center in James Vandenberg. He completed just nine of his 27 passes last week against the Wildcats after replacing Stanzi. Ohio State has a defense that is been terribly stingy against the pass all season long. And the Bucks have picked off 16 passes already this year. That's putting a lot of pressure on Brandon Wegher, who is Iowa's third starting tailback this season. Given how we've seen the Buckeyes' defense cover the spread this year against New Mexico State and Wisconsin, there is no reason to believe they won't stifle Iowa on Saturday," said Hall. The Buckeyes have walloped the Hawkeyes the past two seasons, posting 38-17 and 31-6 victories, the latter coming in Columbus.

Stanford at USC

Jim Harbaugh continues to build the Stanford (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS) program and last week's 51-42 victory over Oregon made the school bowl eligible for the first time since 2001. That year, the Cardinal posted a 9-4 mark under head coach Tyrone Willingham. The chances of matching Willingham are going to be tough, especially with a battle against USC (7-2 SU, 2-7 ATS) this Saturday. The Trojans haven't looked good at all in their last four games albeit three were on the road. The defense is the main issue for USC this year and it's been evident in the last three games, with the Trojans allowing an average of 480.7 YPG and now they face a Stanford team that is averaging 520.7 YPG in its last three. USC and Stanford both feature freshman quarterbacks and Matt Barkley might get all the attention in California, but most can argue that the Cardinal gunslinger Andrew Luck (2,076 yards, 11 TDs) is the better of the two. Plus, Luck has the better ground game with running back Toby Gerhart (1,217 yards, 16 TDs) moving the chains. USC has won six of the last seven meetings but the last battle played at the Coliseum watched Stanford pull off one of the biggest upsets in college football history when it beat USC 24-23. The Cardinal are catching 11 points this weekend and a pass could be in play. Stanford is 1-3 both SU and ATS on the road, while USC is 3-0 SU but 1-2 ATS in Los Angeles.

Utah at TCU

Are the Horned Frogs 20 points better than the Utes? That question will be answered Saturday when TCU (9-0 SU, 6-2 ATS) and Utah (8-1 SU, 3-6 ATS) battle from Fort Worth. Head coach Gary Patterson and the Frogs have dominated teams with a defense (11.2 PPG) and the unit has is getting better as the year moves along. In the last four games, TCU has only surrendered 25 total points. The Frogs are known for their D but quarterback Andy Dalton (63.8 %, 1,881 yards, 16 TDs) is one of the most efficient QBs in the nation and he's one of four players on TCU to have over 300-plus rushing yards this season. Even though Utah might be outmatched in the talent department for this battle, Kyle Wittingham's team won't be intimidated. The Utes are 5-1 all-time against TCU, including last year's 13-10 victory over the Horned Frogs behind QB Brian Johnson, who is no longer behind center for Utah. Looking at the box score closer, the Frogs outgained (416-275) the Utes but they cost themselves with two interceptions and two missed field goals. Utah has gone 3-1 SU on the road this year, but only 1-3 ATS. The lone loss came on Sept. 19 to Oregon (31-24), who has a great shot to win the Pac 10 despite last week's loss to Stanford. The total on this game is hovering between 46 and 47 points and it should be noted the 'under' has cashed in the last four.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma State

The Big 12 hasn't had its fair share of shootouts this season but Saturday's battle in Stillwater between Texas Tech (6-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) and Oklahoma State (7-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) has been known to light up the scoreboard. The Red Raiders enter this game with two weeks to prepare and that might not be good news for the Cowboys. Last season, Texas Tech stroked Oklahoma State 56-20 in Lubbock and the combined 76 points jumped 'over' the closing the number of 72. In the 2008 season, the Cowboys scored a 49-45 win over the Red Raiders, which cashed the 'over' again. Texas Tech's attack doesn't have the same kind of ammo and the quarterback situation is up in the air for Saturday. Despite shuffling gunslingers, Mike Leach's team is still averaging 40.2 PPG and 474 YPG. Oklahoma State doesn't have any issues under center, with QB Zac Robinson (65.4%, 1,832 yards, 14 TDs) leading a balanced attack (34.1 PPG). The Cowboys have gone 4-2 SU and 2-3 ATS at home this year, with the two losses coming against quality teams in Houston (35-45) and Texas (14-41). Texas Tech is 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS on the road but they fared much better in losses to the aforementioned Cougars (28-29) and Longhorns (24-34), plus they were outside of Lubbock. The total is sitting at 58 points and an 'under' play might be a look here. All three of the Red Raiders' road games have gone 'under' the number, plus the Cowboys have watched the 'under' go 4-1 at home this season.

Top Saturday Games
By Brobury Sports

College football action is so good this Saturday that we’ve expanded our previews to five games. Here they are.

Florida (-16) at South Carolina

Top-ranked Florida (9-0 SU, 4-4 ATS) faces their old coach in Steve Spurrier. Florida is 2-0 ATS the last two meetings between the teams. The Gators are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games, but they did fail to cover at Mississippi State a few weeks ago.

South Carolina (6-4, 5-5 ATS) is winless in the SEC at 0-4. It’s been a different story at home at 3-0 SU and 1-2 ATS. Of course, none of those opponents were Florida and the Gamecocks must play their best game of the season to stay within 16 points.

Iowa (+17) at Ohio State

Iowa (9-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) has fallen to No. 10 in the polls after a stunning home loss to Northwestern. Quarterback Ricky Stanzi got injured in that game with a leg injury and he is doubtful this week. Iowa is 4-0 SU and ATS on the road, but this will be tough.

No. 11 Ohio State (8-2 SU, 8-2 ATS) has outscored opponents 107-14 the last three weeks. That’s why the spread is so high in addition to the Stanzi injury. OSU is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games and 7-1 ATS against Iowa in the last eight games.

Alabama (-12.5) at Mississippi St

No 2. Alabama (9-0 SU, 6-3 ATS) is already in the SEC title game, but they need to keep winning for its national title hopes. The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games, but the last one was over a month ago.

Mississippi State (4-5 SU, 5-3 ATS) is a tough home team that has already covered against Florida and LSU this year. Miss St. also beat Alabama at home two years ago, 17-12 as four-point dogs.

Utah (+19.5) at TCU

No. 14 Utah (8-1 SU, 3-6 ATS) is not getting a lot of respect in this game as an almost three-touchdown underdog. That is especially true considering they won and covered the last three meetings between the teams.

TCU (9-0 SU, 6-3 ATS) has been an absolute juggernaut this season out of the Mountain West Conference. They are ranked fourth in the BCS, ahead of big conference schools like Cincinnati. TCU is 4-0 ATS the last four games, outscoring their opponents 178-25.

Notre Dame (+6.5) at Pittsburgh

Notre Dame (6-3 SU, 2-7 ATS) coach Charlie Weis has a big problem on his hands. He could get fired at the end of the season even if he wins this game. The Irish are playing their first true road game since September. That’s incredible!

No. 12 Pittsburgh is very quietly sitting at 8-1 SU (6-2 ATS). They are tied with Cincinnati for first place in the Big East and could be ahead if the Bearcats lose to West Virginia. Pittsburgh is 0-2 SU and ATS in the last two home meetings versus the Irish.

College Football Saturday Wagering
By Doug Upstone

Its been jam-packed season of crazy occurrences in college football and were getting down to the nitty-gritty. With what the schedule looks like, this is the last chance for TCU to be knocked off facing quality Utah club. The Big Ten title is on the line in Columbus, but sports bettors believe it will be one-sided. Florida and Alabama look to keep matching towards what appears to be BCS semi-final tilt. Oregons slip last week left them no room for error if they expect to be Pac-10 champions. What about ABC promoting potential Notre Dame train-wreck, instead of just how good this Pittsburgh team is and that they will have real chance to knock off unbeaten Cincinnati in the coming weeks. Jimmy Football is even more fired up than usual about Saturdays action. Odds courtesy of Sportbet.com.

Iowa (+16.5, 37.5) at Ohio State

Ohio State (8-2 SU&ATS) understands their Big Ten fate after winning impressively at Penn State 24-7. The Buckeyes offense has never found a comfort zone and in recent weeks and has dipped into coach Jim Tressels bag of tricks to score or setup better field position to score points. Though quarterback Terrelle Pryor has made improvements this season, hes not taken the big stride forward. Part is dissonant offensive line, barely average running backs and receivers lacking experience. The defense has been at usual Buckeye standards, holding eight opponents to 18 or fewer points, including three shutouts. Ohio State is 11-0 ATS the week after battle with Nittany Lions.

While Iowa (9-1, 6-3 ATS) had drawn comparisons to 2002 Ohio State national championship team by winning a large number of close games, they are not in the same class, which home loss to Northwestern proved. If anything, that Buckeyes team underachieved, winning half their games by seven or fewer points and having 19 players drafted over a two-year period. The Hawkeyes talent level is not anywhere close to that benchmark and has achieved success by playing hard and never giving up.

Iowa has trailed on the scoreboard in eight of nine wins this season and that was with Ricky Stanzi at quarterback. Now QB James Vandenberg gets his chance. Last week he had a lot of pressure on his, especially after the Hawkeyes fell behind. This week, nobody is giving the Hawkeyes a chance, as bettors have pounded Ohio State. Mental resolve goes a long way as Iowa has outscored the opposition 148-57 in the second half, including 107-44 in the final 15 minutes. Iowa will be a conference road underdog for the fourth time this season and they are 3-0 SU and ATS and 9-1 ATS on the road the last two seasons. Since 2000 the Hawkeyes are 17-10-1 ATS in this exact role.

Ohio State is 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS since 1989 against Iowa including five straight SU and ATS beat-downs with average margin 20 points per game. If Iowa doesnt turn the ball over, theyll have a great chance to cover, if they do, the Buckeyes build on aforementioned numbers over the Hawkeyes.

Florida (-17.5, 42) at South Carolina

This is Floridas last SEC game already, having peculiar schedule that ends with two non-conference tilts. Scheduling Florida International next is a wise move before annual confrontation with Florida State. The Gators (9-0, 4-4 ATS) havent always looked like the best team in the country, but has shown signs of putting everything together with last two wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt. The red zone issues are being answered and Tim Tebow has been more in sync with his receivers, like Riley Cooper. The defense is as good as there is ranked second in the country (232.4 YPG), led by team leader and linebacker Brandon Spikes. Wide receiver Brandon James and TE Aaron Hernandez have dropped more passes than necessary this season and a game might be coming in which that could haunt Florida. The Gators are 8-1 ATS as SEC road chalk.

This is also South Carolinas last conference clash and has just in-state rival Clemson left. Since scoring 28 points against Kentucky, the offense has not been able to turn digits on the scoreboard, averaging 12.2 points per game. Facing a hungry Gators defense is not the easiest way to find a way to manufacture points. Quarterback Stephen Garcia has to keep wits about him in the passing game with the pressure he will face and be on target when the Gamecocks (6-4, 5-5 ATS) are in position to put up points. This will be a touchdown game, not field goal fest. Senior linebacker Eric Norwood and defensive mates have to throw off the timing of Florida offense and force turnovers that can lead to points. They havent lately and are 3-12 ATS in home games after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers.

South Carolina is 4-7-1 ATS as home underdogs under coach Steve Spurrier. The former Gators head man is 1-3 and 2-2 ATS vs. his alma mater.

Alabama (-12.5, 43.5) at Mississippi State

Alabama (9-0, 6-3 ATS) has won six of last eight against Mississippi State; however that doesnt tell the whole story. From 1996 to 2000, the Crimson Tide lost four of five to the Bulldogs, with a matching spread record. In the last two decades, Mississippi State has covered the spread 14 of 20 times and been a real nuisance to Bama. Other than Ole Miss, Alabama is the next biggest rival on the Bulldogs menu and for the most part arent even given consideration by Alabama, which irks the folks from Starksville to no end.

Part of the Crimson Tides lack of focus comes from having LSU just after or before the Bulldogs, just like this season. No team can be emotionally ready week after week and this is a plausible explanation for Alabamas problems with Mississippi State. Alabama has had to make adjustments offensively. In the first part of the 2009 campaign, opponents made a concerted effort to take away WR Julio Jones. This took a player out of the box and running back Mark Ingram has had big year. More recently, Ingram has been the focus of attention and QB Greg McElroys inability to complete passes has prevented the Tide from taking advantage until last week. Bama is 13-7-1 ATS since 1999 as SEC road faves and is perfect 6-0 ATS as visiting team the last two seasons.

The Bulldogs (4-5, 5-3 ATS) have played every ranked team they have faced tough, losing by 10 or less points. New coach Dan Mullen is seeking a first year signature win to help attract better recruits and an upset of Alabama has them on the front page or home page of every sports news outlet. Mississippi State has one of the premier running games in the country (12th) at 219.2 yards per game, with Anthony Dixon toting the pigskin. The Bulldogs are 6-6 ATS as home dogs vs Top 10 teams in last dozen tries. Seven of last 11 conflicts have been UNDER the total.

Notre Dame (+6.5, 58.5) at Pittsburgh

Notre Dame saw their BCS bowl aspirations drown in upset loss to Navy 23-21. What looked like a 10-2 season, could easily turn into 7-5, starting with Pittsburgh next. The not always Fighting Irish (6-3, 2-7 ATS) welcomed back receiver Michael Floyd last week, giving quarterback Jimmy Clausen his full complement of weapons, like he had in the first 2 games of the season. With Golden Tate having All-American season, the offense will be as dangerous as it has been all season. The offensive line will be tested against top quality Pittsburgh defensive front that is among the top 10 in the country. Notre Dames defense is always a concern and they will have to play above proven ability to stop one of the balanced attacks in the country. The Irish are 2-11 ATS in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in previous game.

Once beaten Pittsburgh (8-1, 6-2 ATS) scheduled wisely for this brawl. The Panthers have yet to lose in the Big East and have closing games with West Virginia and Cincinnati to determine who wins the conference and the BCS berth. However, they can give Notre Dame their full attention with a bye next week. Arguably the most improved quarterback in the country is Bill Stull, whos blossomed under new offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr. A more harmonious offense line has kept Stulls jersey clean and freshman RB Dion Lewis has made a big splash, as the nations first 1,000 yard rusher. Pitt stopped Syracuse 37-10 last week and is 16-5 ATS in home games off a win against Big East rival.

The Panthers are just 3-9 ATS versus Notre Dame including 1-4 ATS at home. The visitor has won and covered four in a row.

Utah (+20, 47) at TCU

This is potentially the last big game in the Mountain West Conference if Utah cant pull the upset of highly-ranked TCU. The Utes (8-1, 3-6 ATS) have just one blemish in the loss column, which occurred at Oregon, a 31-24 loss as four-point road dogs. Utahs defense allowed the Ducks just 312 yards on that mid-September afternoon and has only allowed 14.3 points per game since. The Utes have reputation for being effective when it counts most and they have won eight of their last nine games decided by a touchdown or less. Coach Kyle Whittingham made the tough choice, going with talented true freshman QB Jordan Wynn, whos provided a lift, particularly in the red zone. Utah is celebrated 41-20 ATS as an underdog, including 12-1 ATS as a Mountain West road dog of three or more.

Since the decade began, TCU (6-3 ATS) has won 92 games and been a continual contender in the Mountain West, now in its fifth season. The Horned Frogs have higher expectations this year sporting 9-0 record. With a victory over Utah, only at Wyoming and New Mexico stand in the way of perfect season and possible BCS berth. Just how good has TCU been, take away the snow and wind contest at Air Force (20-17 win), they have conquered all other teams by average score of 39-10. The Horned Frogs have domineering defensive front and quickness throughout the defensive two-deep. After years of being an efficient game manager and good runner, QB Andy Dalton has become more accurate thrower, making TCU much more alarming on offense. The Frogs are 11-3 ATS as a home favorite over the last three seasons, winning by 26.3 points per game.

Utah is 5-1 and 4-2 ATS and has won three in a row in this confrontation. TCU is 17-1 and 15-3 ATS in November battles in Fort Worth.

Arizona State (+18.5, 50.5) at Oregon

The Oregon Ducks (7-2, 6-3 ATS) look to continue their march towards a Pac-10 title and have home game against the Sun Devils. Oregons seven game winning streak ended at Stanford with foul defensive performance. The offense is hardly a duck out of water, averaging over 40 points a game in conference action, including the 24 against UCLA when quarterback Jeremiah Masoli was out with knee injury. Opposing teams have much to fear, as one Pac-10 coach said about Ducks offense after watching USC massacre. The execution was at the highest level Ive ever seen someone run the spread option attack,

Another aspect is the athleticism of the Oregon defense, which is evident watching them play (when motivated) and fly around to the ball. Its no wonder they are 28-11 ATS when they allow 15 to 21 points.

Folks in Tempe are showing signs of restlessness after three straight Pac-10 losses and 2-5 record since starting 2-0. Injuries have been a big factor for a squad lacking any real depth. Rumors are circulating that Dennis Erickson has a coaching staff littered with too many cronies and not enough younger energetic types that can recruit and keep the players fired up. Erickson is also calling the offense and questionable clock management has surfaced in different games, with many believing the head coachs plate is too full. The defense is well above average (15th in total defense); however they will have to be uncommonly extraordinary to slow Oregon. The Sun Devils are a pale 8-18-2 ATS as a conference club catching points.
Oregon has oppressed Arizona State (4-3 ATS) in last four meetings, winning and covering each time, with average differential 24 points a contest. These two schools have averaged 64 points per game the last three years.

Game Of The Day: Florida at South Carolina
By MATT SOUTHARD

Line movement

The game opened up at -15 in favor of the Gators, dropped to 14.5 early at a lot of books and has since cruised upwards to 17.5, where the line currently stands. The total has held steady in the 43 to 42.5 points range.

Weather

The conditions will be ideal with temperatures in the mid-70s.

Injuries

Florida starting linebacker Brandon Hicks is questionable with a hamstring injury. South Carolina’s defense is suffering with safety Chris Culliver (shoulder) and defensive linemen Cliff Matthews (shoulder) and Devin Taylor (sternum) all questionable.

Gators trying not to look ahead

Despite the flurry of bad press surrounding the wishy-washy suspension of linebacker Brandon Spikes last week, the constant wear and tear of the SEC and the impending conference title game rematch with Alabama, Florida head coach Urban Meyer insists his team is still focused on the regular season.

“It’s been the year of stuff,” Meyer said. “What does stuff do to bad families? It rips them apart. Bad teams? It rips them apart. What’s it do to solid teams and solid families? It gets them a little closer. I’m proud to say this is a very solid family, a very solid team.”

That solidarity was not overly apparent last week against SEC bottom-feeder Vanderbilt. Although they won 27-3, the Gators (9-0 SU, 4-4 ATS) sputtered on offense.

Florida racked up 375 yards, but converted just 4-of-13 (31 percent) third-down attempts in the victory over the Commodores. Compare that to 7-of-13 against a more competitive Georgia football team on Oct. 31 in which the Gators scored 41 points on just 374 yards of total offense.

"You'd like to put the ball in the end zone more and not kick field goals," said Tim Tebow after the Vanderbilt game.

The under is 6-2 this season for Florida.

Spurrier spurned by his offense

Over the last two seasons, South Carolina head coach Steve Spurrier has handed over much of the play-calling duties on offense to his son, Steve Spurrier, Jr. But with the Gamecocks (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) looking down the barrel of another frustrating finish, the Ole Ball Coach is looking to reassume control.

Citing last week’s 33-16 lackluster loss to Arkansas, Spurrier feels the team is too conservative on offense and thinks his influence may help avoid a late slide like past seasons, in which South Carolina lost three straight and five straight in 2007.

“I call most of the plays and I may be the principle playcaller now with suggestions from the other coaches,” Spurrier said. “That’s about how we’ve been doing it.”

The Gamecocks have lost two straight, rushing for a total of just 118 yards combined in the two losses. They are also 1-5 ATS in their last six games (3-3 SU).

Swampy series

Steve Spurrier has not fared well in recent years against his former Gators squad since joining South Carolina in 2005. Florida has hung 50-plus points on the Gamecocks the last two seasons, easily winning both contests.

In 2006, Florida survived a 17-16 scare and South Carolina won 30-23 in Spurrier’s first year in Columbia.

Overall, since Spurrier’s arrival, South Carolina is 1-3 SU against Florida and has gone 2-2 ATS. In Columbia, the Gamecocks are 1-1 both SU and ATS versus the Gators since 2005.

Trends

Gators are 11-1 ATS in their last twelve road games.

Gamecocks are 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games.

The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams.

Game Of The Night: Utah at TCU
By NICK PARSONS

Party crashers

Any aspirations of becoming the first mid-major team to play in the national title game will have to be put on hold this weekend for the undefeated TCU Horned Frogs. Sitting fourth in the BCS rankings, the home squad will face their toughest opponent of the year in Utah.

The Utes come in as heavy underdogs, but have history on their side with a 5-1 edge over TCU in this short series. Their lone defeat this year was only by a touchdown to Oregon.

In early October, TCU squeaked by Air Force 20-17. But since then they have made an impression to poll voters by steamrolling through their next four opponents by an average of 38.25 points. One of those games included a 38-7 blowout over BYU, who only had one loss at the time.

Balanced attack

Leading the No. 9 ranked TCU offense is junior quarterback Andy Dalton, who has been nearly mistake free with a 16-3 TD-to-INT ratio. He hasn't put up impressive stats, but in head coach Gary Patterson's system he doesn't need to. The offense spreads the ball out, literally. No one on the team has over 30 receptions, but six players have 12 receptions or more.

Joseph Turner is listed as the starting running back, but in reality he splits the carries with two others. This means that Utah will have to deal with fresh players on every down. Dalton posses a threat on the ground as well, having rushed 335 yards and two TDs.

Utah's defense has been impressive holding opposing offenses to 16.9 points per game, but they'll have to contend with an offense that is averaging nearly 500 yards per game and an offensive line that has only given up eight sacks this season.

Last year however, they did find success against the Horned Frogs. In the first 10 minutes, Utah gave up 10 points, but then shutout TCU from that point on, which was good enough for the 13-10 win.

Freshman Wynn

Head coach Kyle Whittingham is already comparing QB Jordan Wynn to alum Alex Smith, but this may be a bit of stretch considering that the freshman has only played in two games.

Wynn performed decent last week going 18 for 28 and 297 yards for two TDs, but that was against winless New Mexico. The TCU 4-2-5 defense, which ranks third in the nation, is an entirely different entity having only given up 11.2 points per game.

Whittingham's offense is a bit of a carry over from the Urban Meyer days, but the 4-2-5 was designed with keeping such spread schemes in check. The defense only has two linebackers but incorporates three safeties each serving as defensive quarterbacks making reads before the snap.

Early evidence of the success of this defense was seen in 2006, where they held the high powered Texas Tech air attack to only three points. Pure talent seems to be the only solution, as last year Oklahoma was the only team that managed more than two touchdowns against TCU.

The line

The line opened up at -17 in favor of TCU and has since been moved to -20 at most sportsbooks. Utah has only been an underdog one other time this season and it was in its loss to Oregon. At 20 points, this is the largest margin the Utes have been dogged in this decade.

TCU has done an excellent job of covering this season going 6-3 ATS. The Horned Frogs have covered the spread in their last four games and in three of those games they had to deal with a line that was more than three touchdowns.

Last year's line was sharp with TCU as a 2-point favorite. For ATS bettors, the game was decided on Utah's final drive which resulted in the game-winning touchdown.

The Horned Frogs’ only win in this series came in 2005. The game went into overtime and TCU won 23-20. Utah was a 3-point favorite in that game.

Those believing in a huge Utah upset will find great value with the moneyline which is listed at +850. TCU moneyline is at -1300.

The total for the game sits at 47. Both teams have high powered offenses but the last four meeting have gone under the total. Utah and TCU are a cominbed 5-10-3 on the over/under this season.

Weather

A low of 61 is expected in Forth Worth at night with a 20 percent chance of precipatation. South winds (diagonal across the field) of 13 mph are expected.

(16) Utah (8-1, 3-6 ATS) at (4) TCU (9-0, 6-2 ATS)
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TCU continues its quest for a coveted BCS Bowl berth, and likely the last hurdle to earning that prize are the Utes, who bring a six-game winning streak into Amon G. Carter Stadium in Forth Worth, Texas, for this Mountain West Conference showdown.

Utah clobbered New Mexico 45-14 last Saturday, outgaining the Lobos 557-334 and barely covering as a 27½-point home favorite. During their six-game winning streak, the Utes have scored at least 22 points in every game (29.8 ppg average) while yielding 17 points or fewer in all six (14.8 ppg average). In fact, going back to last season – when it went 13-0 and finished ranked No. 2 in the national polls – Utah has surrendered 17 points or less in 14 of its last 16 games, allowing an average of just 15.4 ppg. Meanwhile, the offense has tallied at least 22 points in 20 of 22 games since the beginning of 2008, scoring 30 or more 14 times.

Since suffering a last-minute 13-10 loss at Utah a year ago, TCU has reeled off 11 consecutive wins, and the Horned Frogs are 23-2 SU in their last 25 games (16-7 ATS in lined action). Last week, TCU followed up a 41-0 home rout of UNLV as a 35-point chalk with a 55-12 beat-down of San Diego State as a 24½-point road favorite, putting up 500-plus yards in both wins. Since a 20-17 victory and non-cover at Air Force, the Horned Frogs have won their last four games – against Mountain West foes Colorado State, BYU, UNLV and San Diego State – by a combined 175-25, easily covering the spread in all four and helping the team jump up to No. 4 in the national rankings.

TCU has surrendered 17 points or less in 16 consecutive Division I-A games and 19 of 20 against I-A foes since the start of the 2008 season. Take away a 35-10 loss at Oklahoma last year, and the Frogs have given up just 25 touchdowns since the beginning of 2008. Moreover, TCU has yielded 10 points or less 12 times in 22 games going back to the beginning of last year. The Horned Frogs rank in the Top 10 nationally in scoring defense (11.2 ppg, fifth), total defense (240.6 ypg, third), passing defense (150.9 ypg, fourth), rushing defense (89.7 ypg, seventh), rushing TDs (3, tied for third), scoring offense (37.4 ppg, seventh), total offense (458.6 ypg, eighth) and rushing offense (242.1 ypg), sixth).
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Last year in Salt Lake City, TCU jumped out to a 10-0 first-quarter lead and led 10-6 late in the fourth quarter. But the Frogs missed two field goals on their final two offensive possessions, and Utah followed up the second miss by driving down the field and scoring the game-winning touchdown with 48 seconds left to prevail 13-10 as a two-point home underdog. TCU lost despite a 444-275 edge in total offense, including 193-45 in rushing.

The Utes are now on a 3-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, and they’ve won five of six meetings since 1996 (4-2 ATS). In the last clash in Fort Worth in 2007, Utah earned a 27-20 upset win as a four-point underdog.

Utah, whose only loss this year was a 31-24 road setback to then-unranked Oregon, has yet to face a ranked team this season, but it is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 against Top 25 foes. The Horned Frogs crushed their only ranked opponent this year, hammering BYU 38-7 as a 2½-point road favorite three weeks ago.

The Utes are 1-3 ATS in their four road games this year, but they’re 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 as an underdog, 25-7-1 ATS in their last 33 as a road underdog (14-10-1 last 25), 5-0 ATS in their last five as a double-digit pup and 4-0 ATS in their last four in November.

TCU has cashed in 19 of its last 24 at home since 2005 and is 43-18 ATS in its last 61 at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Furthermore, the Frogs are on pointspread rolls of 37-18-1 overall, 19-7-1 against Mountain West rivals, 7-2 when laying more than 10 points, 12-3 as a home favorite of more than 10 points and 9-2 in November
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All four Utah-TCU clashes this decade have stayed under the number, with an averaged combined point total of 35. The under is also 3-0 in all three lifetime battles in Fort Worth. As a team, Utah is on “under” streaks of 5-1 overall and 4-1 in conference, while the under is 4-1-2 in TCU’s last seven overall and 6-1-2 in its last nine as a double-digit chalk.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TCU and UNDER

(15) Iowa (9-1, 6-3 ATS) at (10) Ohio State (8-2 SU and ATS)
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The Hawkeyes attempt to rally back from their first loss of the season, but will have to do so without starting quarterback Ricky Stanzi as they head to Columbus for a Big Ten clash with Ohio State.

After a slew of narrow and/or come-from-behind victories, Iowa’s magic finally ran out last week in a 17-10 loss to Northwestern as a 15-point home favorite, with four second-quarter turnovers proving costly. The Hawkeyes not only saw their 13-game winning streak halted, but they lost Stanzi for at least the rest of the regular season when he broke his ankle in the first half. Stanzi’s replacement, freshman James Vanderburg, struggled against Northwestern, going 9-for-27 for 82 yards with no TDs and one INT. It was just his second game appearance and first since Week 2 at Iowa State.

Ohio State went to Happy Valley last Saturday and dominated Penn State 24-7 as a five-point road underdog. The Buckeyes owned a 353-201 edge in total offense, including 228-76 in rushing, as it marked the first time this year they won a game without scoring at least 30 points. Ohio State has won three in a row by the combined score of 107-14 (3-0 ATS), and it has given up 14 points or less in all eight wins. In its two losses, coach Jim Tressel’s team scored season-lows of 15 and 18 points while allowing season-highs of 18 and 26 points.

With two games to play, both teams – which are tied atop the Big Ten standings at 5-1 SU and ATS – control their own destiny for the conference crown.
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Ohio State went to Iowa City in 2006 – the most recent meeting – and rolled 38-17 as a seven-point road favorite and is now 10-1 SU in the last 11 meetings since 1992 and 7-1 ATS in the last eight. The Hawkeyes are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five trips to the Horseshoe, losing by point margins of 25, 9, 30, 16 and 21. The SU winner has covered in each of the last eight head-to-head clashes, and the favorite got the money in all eight of those contests.

Iowa has won and covered in all four of its road games this year, going 3-0 SU and ATS as a road underdog, and is 6-0 SU and ATS in its last six on the highway, giving up a total of 46 points. Additionally, the Hawkeyes carry positive ATS trends of 8-3 overall, 10-1 on the highway, 6-1 as an underdog (all on the road), 9-2 against teams with a winning record, 25-10 after a SU loss, 35-17 as an underdog and 5-2 in Big Ten action.

Ohio State also sports a bevy of positive pointspread streaks, including 35-17 overall, 5-0 at home, 35-17 in conference, 38-17 as a favorite, 6-1 when laying more than 10 points, 5-0 in November and 7-0 against opponents with a winning record.
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The Hawkeyes are on “under” runs of 22-10-2 overall, 22-5-1 on the road, 15-5-1 as an underdog and 20-7-1 as a road pup. Likewise, Ohio State is riding low-scoring streaks of 7-1-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-1-1 as a favorite, 4-1-1 in Big Ten play and 7-0-1 after both a SU and ATS win. Finally, the last two series meetings between these schools at Ohio Stadium stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and UNDER

(25) Stanford (6-3 SU and ATS) at (11) USC (7-2, 2-7 ATS)
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A week after crushing seventh-ranked Oregon at home, Stanford heads south to Los Angeles for a Pac-10 battle with the 11th-ranked Trojans, with both teams still in the hunt for the league title.

Oregon had won seven in a row overall and seven in a row over the Cardinal when they went to Stanford Stadium last Saturday, but Stanford jumped on top early and led wire-to-wire in 51-42 victory as a seven-point home underdog. QB Andrew Luck passed for 251 yards and two TDs, while RB Toby Gerhart gashed the Ducks for a school-record 223 rushing yards and three TDs on 38 carries, and the Cardinal prevailed despite getting outgained 570-505. Stanford has scored at least 24 points in seven straight games, eclipsing 30 points in five of those contests (including the last three in a row).

USC struggled all night at Arizona State a week ago, but found a way to gut out a 14-9 road win despite getting out-yarded for the third consecutive week, this time finishing on the wrong end of a 347-258 discrepancy. True freshman QB Matt Barkley (7-for-22, 112 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was a non-factor, and the Trojans fell well short of covering as a 10½-point road favorite, their fourth straight non-cover and their seventh ATS setback in the last eight games.

In conference action, the Cardinal are 5-2 SU and ATS and USC is 4-2 SU and 1-5 ATS, and both trail Oregon (5-1).

Last year at Stanford, these teams were tied at 17 late in the third quarter before USC’s offense caught fire, scoring four TDs in the next 16 minutes to take a 45-17 lead. However, the Cardinal got an 18-yard TD pass on the final play of the game to trim the loss to 45-23 and get the cover as a 24-point home underdog. Stanford has now cashed in four of the last five and seven of the last 10 meetings with USC (all as an underdog), going 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to USC. That includes a 24-23 victory as a 41-point underdog in its last visit to the L.A. Coliseum – the biggest upset in college football history and one that ended USC’s 35-game home winning streak.
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Going back to the middle of the 2007 season, Stanford has lost 11 of its last 13 road games, going 3-10 ATS (including 1-3 SU and ATS this year). During this stretch, the Cardinal are 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS when visiting Pac-10 foes and 2-8 ATS as a road underdog. On the bright side, Stanford carries ATS streaks of 5-2 overall, 8-3 overall in conference, 4-1 in November and 7-3 against winning teams.

USC is now 3-10 ATS in its last 13 regular-season games, and the Trojans are in additional ATS funks of 1-8 in Pac-10 play, 1-4 against winning teams, 1-5 both after a SU win and an ATS setback and 0-4 when laying more than 10 points. However, they have covered in 33 of 49 home games, and they’re now 28-0 in November under coach Pete Carroll (21-6 ATS in lined games).
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The under is 43-21-1 in Stanford’s last 65 Pac-10 games, but otherwise it is on “over” runs of 8-3-1 on the road, 10-2 as an underdog, 7-1-1 as a road pup and 5-0 in November. USC snapped a four-game “over” streak last week at Arizona State and is now on “under” stretches of 22-10-1 overall, 12-4-1 at home, 26-12-1 as a favorite, 17-5-1 as a home chalk and 34-16-2 in league games. Finally, 10 of the last 13 meetings in this rivalry have gone over the posted price.

ATS ADVANTAGE: STANFORD

Tennessee (5-4, 6-3 ATS) at Ole Miss (6-3, 4-3 ATS)
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The Volunteers are seeking their 13th straight win over SEC rival Ole Miss when the two clash inside Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Miss.

Tennessee is coming off two straight wins, including Saturday’s 56-28 drubbing of Memphis in Knoxville, cashing as a 25½-point chalk. QB Jonathan Crompton leads the SEC in touchdown passes with 21, including five last week against Memphis. In his last five games, Crompton has completed 60 percent of his throws for 1,297 yards, 14 TDs and just two INTs. The Vols have won three of four and four of six, and they enter this game on a 4-0 ATS run.

Ole Miss scored a 38-14 win over Northern Arizona in a non-lined game a week ago in Oxford. The Rebels are 3-1 SU and ATS at home this season, but just 3-3 SU and ATS in SEC play. The winner has covered the spread in 13 straight lined games for Ole Miss. Rebels’ QB Jevan Snead has had an up-and-down season, completing 52 percent of his throws for 1,850 yards with 17 TDs and 13 INTs.

Tennessee has rattled off 12 straight wins (6-6 ATS) over the Rebels in this series but it’s Mississippi that has the 6-1 ATS edge dating back to 1989, including cashing in each of the last three as a double-digit underdog. Last time these two met was in 2005 when the Vols scored a 27-10 victory in Oxford but failed to cash as a 21-point favorite.
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In addition to cashing in four straight overall, Tennessee is on ATS runs of 5-1 on the road, 6-1 in SEC action, 6-1-1 as a road ‘dog and 18-7-2 on the road against teams with winning home records. Ole Miss also is on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 9-3 overall, 5-1 at home, 7-2 as a favorite, 5-0 as a home chalk, 7-0-1 in November and 8-1 following a non-cover.
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It’s been nothing but “unders” lately for the Vols, including 20-7-1 overall, 18-7-1 in SEC games, 12-3-1 against teams with winning records, 9-1 as an underdog, 6-0 on the road, 7-0 as a road ‘dog and 9-2-1 in November. The “under” has also been the play lately for the Rebels, including 4-2 overall in lined action, 3-1 at home and 38-18 in SEC games. Finally, the under easily cashed in the previous two head-to-head meetings this decade.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Nebraska (6-3 SU and ATS) at Kansas (5-4, 2-6 ATS)
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The Cornhuskers will try to make it three straight wins when they travel to Memorial Stadium in Lawrence, Kan., to take on the struggling Jayhawks in a Big 12 matchup.

Nebraska shut down Oklahoma’s vaunted offense a week ago, allowing just three points in a 10-3 victory, cashing as a 4½-point home underdog. Prior to that, the Huskers went to Baylor and got a 20-10 road win, but came up short as 13½-point favorites. Nebraska ranks second in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 10.3 points a game, and 11th in total defense, yielding just 274 yards per contest.

Offensively, neither junior Zac Lee nor freshman Cody Green has established himself as the clear-cut starter at quarterback. As a result, Nebraska is averaging just 12.3 points and 271.7 total yards per game in its last three contests.
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Kansas has lost four straight games, all in conference, while going 0-6 ATS since late September. Last Saturday, the Jayhawks went to rival Kansas State and fell 17-10 as a 1½-point favorite, getting outrushed 266-60. QB Todd Reesing is having a solid year, completing 64.3 percent of his throws for 2,625 yards, 17 TDs and eight INTs, but in his last three games, he’s averaged just 215.3 passing ypg with two TDs and four INTs. In those three games, the Jayhawks produced just 44 points total after scoring 30 or more in their previous seven games going back to the end of last season.

Despite holding K-State to 17 points last week, Kansas’ defense also has been an issue, yielding an average of 32 ppg during the team’s 0-6 ATS slide.

The home team has won five straight in this series (3-2 ATS) but Kansas has gotten the cash in four of the last five. Nebraska scored a 45-35 home win last season and cashed as a 1½-point favorite.
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The ‘Huskers are on ATS runs of 7-3 overall, 5-2 on the road, 3-1 after a spread-cover and 6-2 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, Kansas is on ATS slides of 0-6 overall, 0-5 in Big 12 games, 1-5 as an underdog and 7-19 as a home pup.
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Nebraska has topped the total in 23 of 31 November games, but otherwise it is on “under” streaks of 10-4 on the road, 5-0 in conference matchups, 4-0 as a favorite and 6-0 following a straight-up win. Kansas is on “over” runs of 11-4 in November games, 4-1 at home and 4-1 at home against teams with winning road records. Finally, the over has been the play in each of the last four meetings in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEBRASKA and OVER

Notre Dame (6-3, 2-7 ATS) at (8) Pittsburgh (8-1, 6-2 ATS)
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Pitt looks for its sixth straight victory as it takes a break from Big East Conference play and entertains the Fighting Irish at Heinz Field.

Notre Dame comes limping into this showdown after losing at home to Navy 23-21 last Saturday, falling as a 12-point home chalk. The Irish wrapped up a five-game homestand at 3-2 SU (1-4 ATS) with the loss to the Middies. Offense hasn’t been a problem for the Irish as QB Jimmy Clausen (career-high 452 yards last week) is the third-rated passer in the nation with WRs Michael Floyd (124.8 yards per game) and Golden Tate (117.7 ypg) third and fourth in the nation, respectively, in receiving yards. Although the defense has been better lately, giving up 17.7 points and 319.7 total yards per game the last three weeks, the Irish have struggled to get stops on the road, where they surrender per-game averages of 29.5 points and 396.5 total yards.

Pitt’s defense ranks tops in the nation with 39 sacks, and the Panthers have won their last five games – all against Big East opponents – by an average of 17.8 points. In last week’s 37-10 rout of Syracuse as a 21-point home favorite, Pitt racked up 481 yards of offense. The Panthers have scored at least 24 points in every game this season, averaging 34.6 points and 187 rushing yards per contest. Additionally, QB Bill Stull is fifth nationally in pass efficiency (161.6) as he’s thrown for 1,879 yards and 17 TDs against just four INTs.
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These teams have alternated wins and losses in each of the last four meetings dating to 2003, with the road team coming out on top each time (4-0 ATS). Pitt went to South Bend and scored a 36-33 overtime win last season as a four-point road ‘dog.

Notre Dame is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 clashes with Pitt, but overall it is on ATS slides of 1-7 overall, 1-6 against Big East teams, 1-5 in November games and 1-5 after a non-cover. Conversely, the Panthers carry nothing but positive ATS streaks, including 4-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 10-2 on grass, 9-4 against winning teams and 4-1 as a home chalk.
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For the Irish, the “under” is on streaks of 12-5 as an underdog, 23-8-1 as a road ‘dog, 4-0 in November, 12-3 on the road and 5-2 after a straight-up loss. Pitt has stayed “under” the posted number in four of five overall, eight of 10 as a home chalk, five of six at home and five of seven after a spread-cover.

Finally, the last three clashes between these two have soared over the posted price, with combined totals of 79, 63 and 69.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH

(18) Arizona (6-2, 4-3 ATS) at California (6-3, 3-5 ATS)
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Arizona, which controls its own destiny for its first-ever Pac-10 title, makes the trek north to Memorial Stadium in Berkeley for meeting with the Golden Bears.

The Wildcats ran their SU and ATS winning streak to three in a row (all at home) with last Saturday’s 48-7 rout of Washington State, scoring on their first seven possessions and easily covering as a 32-point favorite. Arizona has outgained its last two opponents (UCLA and Washington State) by respective margins of 245 and 283 yards, and the Wildcat offense has generated 188 points in the last five games (37.6 ppg) – all in Pac-10 play – going 4-1 SU and ATS. They trail first-place Oregon by one-half game in the league standings.

Arizona hits the road for the first time since Oct. 10, when it dominated Washington (481-256 yardage advantage) but suffered a bizarre 36-33 loss as a four-point road favorite when the Huskies scored the game-winning points on a fluke interception return. Mike Stoops team has played just three road games, going 1-2 SU and ATS while giving up an average of 31.7 ppg.
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Cal is coming off last Saturday’s 31-14 loss to Oregon State as a seven-point home favorite, ending a three-game SU winning streak and extending a 1-5 ATS slump (all in Pac-10 action). The Bears suffered a huge scare when star RB Jahvid Best flipped into the end zone on a second-quarter touchdown run and landed awkwardly. He was carried off on a stretcher and diagnosed with a concussion, and he will not play today. The Bears never recovered from Best’s departure and got outgained 436-239 while holding the ball for less than 24 minutes. Cal has scored 20 points total in its three losses while averaging 43.8 ppg in its six wins.

These teams have alternated SU and ATS wins and losses the last four years, with the home team going 4-0 SU and ATS. Last year in the desert, the Wildcats erased a 10-point halftime deficit, scoring four third-quarter touchdowns en route to a 42-27 victory as a 2½-point home underdog. However, Cal has dominated Arizona in the last three meetings in Berkeley, winning 42-14, 28-0 and 45-27, easily covering as a double-digit favorite in all three. The SU winner has cashed eight straight in this rivalry, and the Bears have been favored in each of the last six clashes. Finally, the ‘dog has gotten the money in 15 of the last 21 series meetings.
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Going back to last year, the Wildcats are on ATS runs of 5-1 in conference, 7-2 as an underdog, 11-4 as a ‘dog of three points or less and 8-3 against winning teams, but they’re 1-5 ATS in their last six on the road and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after a win of more than 20 points. In addition to failing to cover in five of six overall (all against Pac-10 opponents), Cal is in pointspread ruts of 1-4 as a favorite, 3-13 as a favorite of three points or less and 3-8 in November, but the Bears are still on positive ATS upticks of 9-4 at home, 9-3 as a home favorite and 4-0-1 when coming off a double-digit home loss.

The over is on stretches of 5-0 for Arizona on the road, 4-1 for Arizona as an underdog (all on the road), 5-0 for Arizona on artificial turf and 4-2 for Cal as a home favorite. On the flip side, the under is 10-2 in Arizona’s last 12 as an underdog of three points or less, 11-4 in the Bears’ last 15 in November and 4-1 in the Bears’ last five against winning teams. As for this rivalry, the last two meetings went way over the total with scores of 45-27 and 42-27.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER

(1) Florida (9-0, 4-4 ATS) at South Carolina (6-4, 5-4 ATS)
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The annual Steve Spurrier vs. Florida showdown takes place at Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, S.C., as South Carolina looks to snap its two-game slide and the Gators’ NCAA-best 19-game winning streak in an SEC East battle.

Florida prepped for this contest with a 27-3 rout of Vanderbilt last week, which followed a 41-17 destruction of Georgia two weeks ago, a pair of victories that gave Urban Meyer’s squad another SEC East championship. However, the Gators never threatened to cover as a 35-point home favorite against the Commodores, falling to 1-3 ATS in the last four games. Florida, which outgained Vanderbilt 375-199 last week, has had the yardage edge in each of its last 15 games, including outgaining 12 opponents by more than 100 yards.

Florida is still 13-4 ATS in lined action during its 19-game winning streak, with 17 of those wins being double-digit blowouts. Also, the Gators’ defense has held all 19 opponents to 21 points or less, and this year, they’re surrendering just 9.7 ppg and 192.7 total ypg on the road.
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South Carolina is coming off consecutive ugly SEC road losses to Tennessee (31-13 as a six-point underdog) and Arkansas (33-16 as a 7½-point pup). The Gamecocks, who started the season 5-1, have lost three of their last four, and they’re 1-4 ATS in their last five lined outings. Spurrier’s troops are 5-0 at home (2-2 ATS), averaging 26.8 points and 394 total yards per game while yielding 15.2 points and 302.8 ypg.

Since South Carolina joined the SEC in 1996, Florida has won 12 of 13 meetings (7-6 ATS). The Gators survived a scare in 2006 at home, getting a blocked field goal as time expired to preserve a 17-16 win as a 13-point favorite. However, the Florida has humiliated the Gamecocks the last two years, winning 51-31 as a seven-point road chalk in 2007 and 56-6 as a 21-point home favorite in 2008, the worst loss suffered by a Spurrier-coached team.

In last year’s rout of South Carolina, the Gators racked up 519 total yards (346 rushing) and allowed 173 total yards (53 rushing), while QB Tim Tebow went 13-for-20 for 173 yards with two TDs through the air and added 39 yards and one score on the ground. Tebow has accounted for 10 touchdowns (six rushing, four passing) and 636 yards (477 passing, 159 rushing) in the last two meetings.
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Despite failing to get the money in three of the last four weeks, the Gators still sport incredible ATS runs of 13-4 overall (all as a favorite), 11-1 on the road, 10-1 as a road chalk, 13-5 in SEC play, 19-7 against teams with a winning record, 6-1 after a non-cover, 8-1 in November, and 12-0 when playing on the road against an opponent that has a winning home record. Meanwhile, South Carolina has covered in five of its last six as an underdog of more than 10 points, but is just 1-4 ATS in its last five SEC games and 4-7-1 ATS as a home pup under Spurrier.

Florida’s stout defense has led to a series of “under” streaks that include 6-1 overall (as a favorite), 4-0 on the highway (all as a favorite), 7-1 in conference and 5-1 against winning teams. The under is also 9-3 in the Gamecocks’ last 12 lined home games, 5-2 in their last seven as an underdog and 5-0 in their last five as a home pup. However, four of the last five in this rivalry have gone over the total, and the over is 4-1 in the Gators’ last five in November 7-3 in South Carolina’s last 10 in this month.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA

(3) Alabama (9-0, 6-3 ATS) at Mississippi State (4-5, 5-3 ATS)
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Having already punched its ticket to next month’s SEC Championship Game and rematch with top-ranked Florida, Alabama now will try to avoid a letdown when it travels to Starkville, Miss., for a divisional matchup against the Bulldogs.

Alabama rallied from deficits of 7-0 and 15-10 last week against LSU, scoring the final 14 points to not only pull out a 24-15 victory but also cover as a 7½-point home favorite, ending a two-game ATS slide. The Crimson Tide dominated the ninth-ranked Tigers in the boxscore with a 452-253 total yardage advantage, and after three straight sub-par games, QB Greg McElroy came up big, going 19-for-34 for 276 yards with two TDs and one INT.

The Crimson Tide have now won 21 consecutive regular-season games, with seven of the nine this season being double-digit routs. Nick Saban’s defense, ranked among the best in the nation, has held its last eight opponents to 20 points or less, with five of the last seven scoring 10 or less.
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Mississippi State went to Kentucky as a 3½-point underdog on Oct. 31 and beat the Wildcats 31-24, rolling up 493 total yards and yielding just 308. The Bulldogs are just 2-4 SU in their last six games (1-2 in SEC play), but they’ve now covered three straight overall and four straight SEC contests (all as an underdog).

Both teams have strong rushing attacks, with Mississippi State averaging 219.2 ypg on the ground (4.9 per carry) and Alabama netting 213 rushing ypg (5.2 per carry). The difference is on defense, where the Bulldogs give up 147.4 rushing ypg (3.8 per carry), while the Crimson Tide hold opponents to 68.2 rushing ypg and 2.3 ypc, both figures ranking second in the nation behind Texas.

Alabama ended a two-game SU and ATS losing streak to Mississippi State last year, pounding out a 32-7 home win as a 21-point chalk. The Tide are 6-2 SU in the last eight meetings, but the Bulldogs have covered in seven of the last nine and 10 of the last 14. Also, the home team is on a 7-3 SU roll in this rivalry, covering the last two to end a 6-0 ATS run by the visitor.
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The Crimson Tide are riding positive pointspread trends of 5-2 overall, 7-1 on the road, 11-4 as a favorite, 5-0 as a road chalk, 8-3 in SEC play and 5-0 in November. Mississippi State has failed to cash in five of its last six in November, but is otherwise on ATS hot streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-0 in SEC play, 7-1 as an underdog and 4-1 as a home pup.

Alabama’s “under” runs include 7-2 in SEC action, 20-7 against losing teams and 32-11-1 as a favorite of more than 10 points, while the under is 4-1 in the Bulldogs’ last five in November and 4-0 in their last four after a bye. Finally, eight of the last 10 head-to-head meetings have stayed low, including the last four in Starkville.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSISSIPPI STATE and UNDER

(12) Miami (Fla.) (7-2, 5-3 ATS) at North Carolina (6-3, 3-4 ATS)

The Hurricanes shoot for their third straight win as they try to keep pace with Georgia Tech in the ACC Coastal Division when they head to Tobacco Road for a divisional clash with North Carolina.
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Miami destroyed Virginia 52-17 as a 14-point home favorite last week, finishing with 515 total yards (268 rushing) while allowing just 149 total yards (74 rushing). The Hurricanes, who had a season high for points, outscored the Cavaliers 28-0 in the second half after scoring the final 14 points the previous week in a come-from-behind 28-27 win at Wake Forest. The offense is rolling, putting up 33 points or more in five of nine games and averaging 38.4 ppg in the last five.

The Tar Heels followed up a difficult 30-27 home loss to Florida State with consecutive ACC wins over Virginia Tech (20-17 as a 14½-point road underdog) and Duke (19-6 as a 10-point home favorite. Take away losses to Florida State and Georgia Tech (24-7), and the Tar Heels have limited their other seven opponents to 17 points or less, giving up an average of 12 ppg.

The SU winner has cashed in each of North Carolina’s last six lined games and seven of Miami’s last eight lined outings.
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Miami is 4-2 (3-3 ATS) in the ACC, good for second place in the Coastal Division, 1½ games behind Georgia Tech, while the Tar Heels are tied for last at 2-3 SU and ATS in conference play.

North Carolina is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with the ‘Canes, including scoring outright upsets the past two seasons (33-27 as a seven-point home underdog in 2007; 28-24 as a 7½-point road pup in 2008). In last year’s contest in South Beach, the Tar Heels rallied from a 14-point deficit, getting a game-winning TD pass with 46 seconds left. UNC has been the underdog in all five meetings since Miami joined the ACC in 2004.

The ‘Canes are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five against teams with a winning record, but otherwise they’re in pointspread slumps of 9-22-1 as a favorite, 4-10 as a road favorite, 10-25 after a spread-cover and 1-8 after a SU victory of more than 20 points. UNC carries positive ATS trends of 8-3 as an underdog (5-1 last six), 6-0 as a home underdog, 10-3 as a pup of three points or less and 7-0 at home against opponents with a winning road record.
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The over is 4-1 in the five meetings this decade between these schools. Additionally, the over is on stretches of 3-0 for Miami overall, 6-2 for Miami in ACC action, 5-2 for Miami as a road favorite, 8-3 for Carolina at home and 5-2 for Carolina as an underdog.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and OVER

Texas Tech (6-3, 5-3 ATS) at (17) Oklahoma State (7-2, 4-3-1 ATS)
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Oklahoma State looks to keep its slim Big 12 South title hopes alive when it welcomes the Red Raiders to Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater.

Texas Tech bounced back from a stunning 22-point home loss to Texas A&M as a 22-point home favorite with last week’s 42-21 rout of Kansas as a 6½-point home chalk. The Red Raiders have won four of their last five games, going 3-1 ATS in the last four. Mike Leach’s squad lost its first two road games (34-24 at Texas; 28-28 at Houston) before knocking off Nebraska 31-10 as a 10½-point underdog in its most recent roadie on Oct. 17. Going back to last year, this marks Texas Tech’s sixth straight road game against a ranked opponent, and it is 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS in the last five.

Oklahoma State took a week off after a humiliating 41-14 loss to Texas on Halloween, then came back last week and drubbed Iowa State 34-8 as a 7½-point road chalk. RB Keith Toston piled up 206 rushing yards and three TDs for the Cowboys, who ended with a 473-242 total-offense advantage, and the defense picked off three passes. Oklahoma sits firmly in second place in the Big 12 South standings, but a game behind Texas.
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The home team has won seven straight meetings in this rivalry (5-2 ATS) and nine of the last 10 (7-3 ATS). Last year, the Red Raiders pounded Oklahoma State 56-20 as a 3½-point home chalk, gaining 629 yards, including 516 through the air. The previous three meetings were decided by 7, 6 and 4 points. Texas Tech has covered in 11 of the last 15 against the Cowboys, and the underdog is 4-2 ATS in the last six battles.

Texas Tech is on ATS runs of 4-1 as an underdog, 4-1 in Big 12 action, 4-1 against winning teams and 4-1 after a SU win, but it has failed to cover in seven straight games as a road underdog of 3½ to 10 points. The Cowboys are 4-7-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall and they’ve failed to cover in five of their last seven at home and seven of 10 in November, but otherwise OSU is on ATS tears of 36-16-2 as a favorite, 11-4 as a home chalk and 12-4-2 in November home games.

The over/under is split in Texas Tech’s eight lined games this year, alternating in the last four contests, but the Red Raiders have stayed low in all three road games. Meanwhile, the over is 36-17 in Oklahoma State’s last 53 games overall and 19-9 in its last 28 in November, and the last three in this series have gone over the posted price following a three-year “under” run.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

Leap-Ahead
By SportsPic

Horned Frogs aim to take over sole possession of the Mountain West Conference as they entertain Utah Utes at Carter Stadium. Frogs with one of the nation's longest win streaks at eleven games (8-3 ATS) have won 16-of-17 (12-5 ATS) with the only blemish coming at the hands of Utes last year. Meanwhile, Utah the only team to go undefeated in all of 2008 have won six straight (3-3 ATS) since it's lone setback at Oregon in week-three. Racking up 29.8 points while allowing just 14.3 points/game over the streak Utes present a real hurdle for Frogs who are 1-5 (2-3 ATS) all-time vs Utah. Still, Frogs with it's own brand of solid defense permitting a mere 11.2 PPG on the season, an offense spearheaded by QB Andy Dalton (1881PY 16TD, 335RY 2TD) that records 37.4 PPG should not be denied on home turf where they've won twelve straight cashing nine of the ten lined games. But can they cover the huge number (-20.0) ?? Not promising, recent games have been nail biters as three of the last four meetings have been decided by seven points or less. Keep in mind, Utah has been a personal ATM Machine as underdogs of eight or more points going a perfect 12-0 against-the-number. Utes were also the last team to defeat Frogs in Fort Worth, a 27-20 victory back in 2007.

Meyer vs. Spurrier
By AllStar.com

With Alabama knocking off LSU last Saturday, the stage is set for a re-match of the SEC Championship game. No. 1 Florida will again face No. 2 Alabama, with the winner more than likely facing Texas in the BCS Championship.

The Gators look to repeat as National Champions but still have a schedule to finish, starting with unranked South Carolina this Saturday in Columbia.

With comparisons made to which Gators’ team is better, one thing for sure is that Florida’s offense has lacked the fire-power, many fans were used to a year ago.

Despite the struggles at times, Florida is still ranked #1 in the polls and the BCS.

The Gators have turned it on the last couple of Saturday’s, beating Vanderbilt 27-3 last week and the Georgia Bulldogs on October 31st, 41-17. With the wins the Gators improved to (9-0, 7-0).

The Gators have been criticized this season for failing to blow out their opponents. In the last month Florida knocked off Arkansas by three points and beat Mississippi State by just 10.

“You’d like to put the ball in the end zone more and not kick field goals,” said Tim Tebow, who passed for 208 yards and a touchdown and ran for a score. “But we’re going to be happy being 9-0. Not too many teams in the country are 9-0.”

When you’re great it’s hard to satisfy the critics. While the Gators haven’t looked overly impressive at times, they’ve won 19 games. “Have you ever gone 19-0?” Meyer said. “It’s not ho-hum, I can assure you that. If it’s ho-hum for someone, you’ve got to really reflect to say, ‘Where am I headed in this life right now?’ If 19-0 in the Southeastern Conference at the University of Florida is ho-hum, then you’ve got one exciting life, man, you’ve got a lot of good stuff going for you.

“I don’t ever want to take anything away from what those cats have done. Two out of three times we’re going to go play in Atlanta for the SEC championship in the best conference in college football. There’s absolutely nothing ho-hum about what this team is doing.”

On paper South Carolina looks like a cake walk for the Gators, but remember, South Carolina’s head coach Steve Spurrier, hates his former employer and would like nothing more than to spoil Florida’s perfect season.

The last time the Gators finished SEC play undefeated was back in 1996, when Spurrier was Florida’s head coach, and they won the National Championship.

The Gators have won 17 of 18 against the Gamecocks with the loss coming in a 30-22 defeat at South Carolina on Nov. 12, 2005, Spurrier’s first game against the program he coached from 1990-2001.

Florida has won three straight over South Carolina since then, combining to score 107 points in the last two.

In last season’s 56-6 home rout, Tebow completed 13 of 20 passes for 173 yards with two touchdowns and ran for another. The Gators’ vaunted defense limited South Carolina to just 173 yards while forcing four turnovers.

South Carolina (6-4, 3-4) is trying to avoid another difficult finish after starting 5-1. The Gamecocks were 7-3 last season before losing their final three games, and dropped their final five games of 2007 to finish 6-6.

“It’s kind of become a seasonal thing around here,” defensive tackle Nathan Pepper said.

The Gamecocks are coming off last Saturday’s 33-16 loss to Arkansas, their second straight defeat and third in four games.

Quarterback Stephen Garcia passed for 327 yards with a touchdown and an interception for South Carolina, which is averaging 12.3 points in its last four games—down from 27.3 in its first six.

Steve Spurrier plans to shake up the offense against Florida, saying earlier in the week he’ll call the majority of the plays.

“We are just not real good right now. I don’t know how else to say it,” Spurrier said. “Maybe all of the good fortune we had earlier is catching up with us a bit.”

After the Gamecocks, the Gators will face Florida International and Florida State, both at home. These two schools have a combined 6-12 record in 2009. The SEC Championship game against Alabama at the Georgia Dome is set for Dec. 5.

While Florida’s offense has struggled at times, their defense has been great, scoring 10.1 points per game. The Gators held the Commodores to 199 yards, hardly missing linebacker Brandon Spikes, who served a one-game suspension for an eye-gouging incident against the Bulldogs.

BETTING TRENDS:

Gators are 12-0 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Gators are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.

Gators are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite.

Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.

Gamecocks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Gamecocks are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home underdog.

HEAD TO HEAD:

Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Pac-10 Clash
By AllStar.com

The Stanford Cardinal (6-3), ranked 25th in this week’s Associated Press poll, will travel to Los Angeles this Saturday for a showdown with 11th-ranked USC (7-2). Kickoff is set for 12:30 p.m. at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Stanford is coming off a 51-42 win over previously seventh-ranked Oregon on Saturday while the Trojans posted a 14-9 victory at Arizona State. Stanford has won two straight and are bowl eligible for the first time since the 2001 season.

Saturday’s Pac 10 matchup features two of the best young quarterbacks in the country in redshirt freshman Andrew Luck and true freshman Matt Barkley. Luck and Barkley, both five-star recruits coming out of high school, arrived on campus with high expectations, and while they have taken different paths, the two young guns have been instrumental in their team’s success this season. While Barkley has received more attention, Luck currently sits atop the Pac-10 in passing efficiency (153.1), is second in total offense (255.9) and ranks third in the conference in passing yards per game at 230.7

USC's offense has looked sluggish the past two weeks, combining to score 34 points after averaging 33.3 points in winning its previous four games. Matt Barkley is in the middle of these offensive struggles. In his least productive game, Barkley completed 7 of 22 passes for 112 yards with one touchdown and one interception against the Sun Devils. Barkley has 10 touchdowns to seven interceptions on the season and the Trojans' passing offense ranks eighth in the Pac-10 with 221.6 yards per game. The offense gained a season-low 258 yards against ASU. Dating to the second half of the loss at Oregon, USC's offense has scored just 10 points in the past six quarters. Barkley is 12 for 38 for 161 yards, with a touchdown and two interceptions, during that span. USC has had a problem with third-down efficiency. The Trojans converted only 6 of 27 third-down opportunities against Oregon and ASU. WR Damien Williams is OUT this week due to a high ankle sprain and Anthony Mc Coy is back at TE for the Trojans.

Stanford, with the dynamic combo of Andrew Luck and tailback Toby Gerhart leading the way, the Cardinal is bowl eligible for the first time since 2001 and enters Saturday’s showdown in Los Angeles ranked in the Top 25 for the first time since the end of the 2001 season.

Stanford’s offense is truly one of the best units in the country averaging 34 points per contest and continues to show improvement each week. They have racked up 1,562 yards of total offense the last three games and are coming off a 51-point performance against the Oregon Ducks, who entered the game as one of the nation’s hottest teams.

Luck completed 12 of 20 passes for 251 yards and two touchdowns against the Ducks, and has thrown for 2,076 yards with 11 TDs to just three interceptions on the season. Luck, who is ninth nationally in passing efficiency, gets great protection from a line that has allowed just 6 sacks in 2009. He throws to a pair of dangerous pass catchers in WRs Ryan Whalen and Chris Owusu (he is the nation's top kickoff return men and tied the Pac-10 season mark with 3 scoring runbacks).

Running back Toby Gerhart leads the Pac-10 in both rushing yards (1,217) and rushing touchdowns (16). Gerhart accounted for a school-record 223 yards and three scores against Oregon. The senior has seven 100-yard games on the season, and finished with 101 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries against USC last season.

USC bounced back last Saturday with a tough 14-9 win over Arizona State. Despite the victory, the Trojans struggled to put away a mediocre Sun Devils team. The defense came up with some key stops, it had trouble slowing down Arizona State, yielding 347 yards. The Trojans are allowing an average of 480.7 yards in their last three games and will need to shore up some defensive miscues against a Stanford team averaging 520.7 yards of offense in its last three. The USC defense, which gave up 613 yards to Oregon, has been mediocre to bad since the fourth quarter of the win at Notre Dame on Oct. 17. The USC defense created a season-high four turnovers, including Will Harris' 55-yard interception return for a touchdown last week at ASU.

The Cardinal defense gave up six scores to Oregon and was lucky a few dropped passes saved them from two others. Stanford is 82nd nationally in total defense, allowing 388.89 yards per game. The Cardinal doesn't have as much defensive speed as many teams in the Pac-10, which could lead to a big game for USC's playmakers. The secondary has had its problems, and the Cardinal has tried a number of cornerbacks with limited success. Stanford's pass rush has been decent and it needs to be strong to prevent Barkley from having time to find receivers. Since USC's offensive line is its strength that will be a chore.

Injuries:

Stanford…Out...Allen Smith T Knee, Clinton Snyder LB, Brian Buckle DT wrist, Matt Kopa T Foot…All Out

USC….Out RB Marc Tyler Toe, Hebron Fangupo Back, Marshall Jones CB Neck, Shareece Wright CB Academic, Stafon Johnson RB Throat, Armond Armstead DT Foot,

Damien Williams WR Ankle…All Out

Questionable….Everson Griffen DE Toe, Jarvis Jones LB Neck, Anthony Mc Coy TE Knee, Malcolm Smith LB Shoulder

Stanford-USC Series

In a series that dates back to 1905, Stanford trails the all-time series with USC, 25-59-3. The Trojans have won six out of the last seven games in the series after the Cardinal posted three straight wins from 1999-2001. Dating back to 1980, Stanford is just 7-22 against USC, including a string of 11-straight losses from 1980-90. In 2007, Stanford snapped USC's five-game winning streak in the series, as the Cardinal stunned the second-ranked Trojans, 24-23 at the Coliseum. USC won last year's game at Stanford Stadium, 45-23, scoring 35 unanswered points after falling behind 17-10 in the second quarter.

Dating back to the 2002 season, Stanford has posted a 7-22 (.214) record in games during the months of November and December and has gone 1-3 each of the last four years in games played during these two months.

USC has won 12 straight home games, longest current such streak among Pac-10 teams.

Pete Carroll, college football's winningest active coach (84.8%), has won 81.4% of his games against AP Top 25 teams. Trojans have never lost a game in November under Coach Pete Carroll (28-0).

The Southern California Trojans are ranked 40 on offense, averaging 407.7 yards per game. The Trojans are averaging 186.1 yards rushing and 221.6 yards passing so far this season.

The Stanford Cardinal are ranked 15 on offense, averaging 443.0 yards per game. The Cardinal are averaging 211.0 yards rushing and 232.0 yards passing so far this season.

At home the Trojans are averaging 41.7 scoring, and holding teams to 15.0 points scored on defense. On the road, Stanford is averaging 30.5 scoring, and holding teams to 29.5 points scored on defense. The Stanford Cardinal are 1-3 on the road this season, 5-2 against conference opponents and 1-1 against non-conference opponents.

Betting Trends:

Stanford is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games

Stanford is 1-4 ATS in their last five road games

Stanford is 4-1 ATS in their last five games against USC

USC is 0-4 ATS in their last four games

USC is 1-8 ATS in their last nine Pac 10 games

The OVER is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings between the two teams