TCU set for revenge
By AllStar.com
Even though it’s mid-November, many college football experts have etched the BCS National Championship game in stone. Most feel the winner of the SEC Championship game, between No. 2 Alabama and No. 1 Florida will face #3 Texas.
While most agree with possible BCS match up, there’s another Texas team with their eye on the big game. . No. 4 TCU has a perfect season and feels they’re deserving of playing for the National Championship.
The Horned Frogs have been great but they’ll lose their argument to play for the prize if they fall to No. 16 ranked Utah this weekend.
Utah would love to prevent its Mountain West rival from equaling its own feat, and the 16th-ranked Utes could also gain the inside track for a second straight conference title if they win Saturday’s showdown in Fort Worth.
After finishing the 2008 regular season unbeaten, Utah blewout Alabama in the Sugar Bowl to finish as college football’s only undefeated team at 13-0.
The Utes had their eye on repeating last year’s undefeated season but an early loss to Oregon ended Utah’s winning streak, and TCU (9-0, 5-0) has emerged as the league’s threat for a spot in the BCS.
The Horned Frogs have looked impressive in climbing the BCS standings to No. 4—highest ever for a team from a non-BCS conference. They’ve won seven games by at least 16 points, including the last four by an average of 38.3.
If TCU gets by Utah, it has an easy path to an unbeaten finish, with games remaining against struggling Wyoming and winless New Mexico.
“Our ultimate goal is to end the season undefeated,” quarterback Andy Dalton said. “We have a lot of potential but we have to keep going out and playing like this.”
Last week TCU blew out San Diego State on the road 52-12. Dalton was solid once again, completing 14 of 20 for 239 yards and two touchdowns, and running for two more scores.
TCU gained 312 yards on the ground after totaling 390 in the previous week’s drubbing of UNLV.
“Right now, we are a confident team,” said Joseph Turner, who ran for his team-high ninth touchdown last Saturday. “We feel that no matter what play the coaches call, we are going to be successful.”
While so much attention has been given to the Horned Frogs offense, its defense that deserves much more attention. TCU’s defense has a total of 25 points in the last four games, they rank third nationally, allowing 240.6 yards per game, while the offense ranks eighth (458.6 ypg).
“If you look at the stats, they are at or are near the top in all three phases of the game,” Utah coach Kyle Whittingham said. “Coach Patterson has done a great job assembling talent and I think they do a great job coaching them. There is no question that this is the best football team we have faced from them to this point.”
TCU success didn’t just appear out of nowhere. Last season they went 11-2 and nearly knocked-off Utah on Nov. 6, holding a four-point lead before the Utes scored a touchdown with 48 seconds left to win 13-10.
Utah (8-1, 5-0) is playing very well at this stage of the season, having won six straight games, while holding each opponent under 20 points since the 31-24 defeat at Oregon on Sept. 19.
Utah crushed New Mexico 45-14 last Saturday, totaling a season-high 557 yards as true freshman Jordan Wynn threw for 297 and two touchdowns in his first start.
Wynn stepped in for struggling starter Terrance Cain to finish a 22-10 victory over Wyoming the previous week.
“He knows the offense well. He knows defenses pretty well, too, and knows when to check in and out of things,” wide receiver Jereme Brooks said of Wynn. “Him back there being so smart just makes us a better offense as a whole. He can put any pass where he wants to put it.”
Wynn, a standout High School player from San Diego, knows this weekend’s test against TCU will be a much tougher test than the one he received from New Mexico. For Wynn to have continued success, he’ll have to do it with support from his running game. Both Eddie Wide and Sausan Shakerin had 100-yard games against the Lobos, with Wide reaching that mark for a school-record sixth consecutive game.
BETTING TRENDS:
Utes are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Utes are 25-7-1 ATS in their last 33 games as a road underdog.
Under is 5-1 in Utes last six games overall.
Horned Frogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a favorite.
Horned Frogs are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 6-1-2 in Horned Frogs last nine games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
NCAAF Saturday
Top games
Iowa QB Stanzi is out (ankle), freshman Vandenberg ain't ready to face Buckeyes in Horseshoe; Ohio State won last three games since losing at Purdue by combined margin of 107-14- they're 8-1 vs spread in last nine games, 4-0 as home favorite. Hawkeyes held three of last four opponents to 17 or less points- they won both times they've been an underdog this season. Three of last four Iowa games stayed under the total.
Underdog is 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine Michigan State-Purdue games; State's 48-31 win here in '07 was its first in five visits to W. Lafayette. Boilers won three of last four games, rallying from down 24-10 at half to win at Michigan last week (first win in Ann Arbor since '66). Spartans have three '09 losses where they scored 30+ points. Six of last eight Purdue games stayed under total. Big 11 home dogs are 5-6 vs spread.
Clemson won last three games, scoring 38-40-40 points, but they're just 1-2 on road, with all three games decided by FG. Tigers are 3-2 as a fave this year, 0-1 on road. NC State lost four of last five games; they gave up an average of 39.7 ppg in last six games. ACC home dogs are 7-2 against spread. Clemson won last five series games by average of 14 points; they won last last two visits to Raleigh by 42-20/31-10 scores.
Georgia Tech is 13-1 in last 14 games vs Duke, winning last five by an average of 35-12, winning last two here 35-10/41-24; Jackets are 4-2 as a favorite this year, 3-0 on road, winning away games by 11-5-25-25 pts. Tech covered six of last seven games, scoring 40 ppg in last three, but in last three games, they have no INTs. Duke gained total of just 125 yards in 19-6 loss last week; they're 3-2 as a dog. Last three Duke tilts stayed under the total.
Tennessee won last dozen games vs Ole Miss, winning last three played here, but teams haven't met since '05. Vols won three of last four games (4-0 vs spread); they're 0-2 on the road, losing 23-13 at Florida, 12-10 at Alabama, two tough places to win. Rebels' star DE Hardy is out; Three of last four Tennessee games went over total. Rebels SEC home favorites are 7-15 vs spread. Ole Miss is 0-2 when it allows more than 17 points.
Average total in last three Nebraska-Kansas games is ridiculous 88.7, as home team won last five series games. Nebraska lost last two visits to Lawrence, 76-39/40-15, but Husker defense allowed total of 22 points in last three games, upsetting Oklahoma 10-3 last week. Kansas lost its last four games, still needs win to be bowl eligible. Eight of nine Nebraska games stayed under the total. Big 12 home underdogs are 7-7 vs spread.
Pitt won last five games (4-1 vs spread), winning last two by 27 points each; Panthers are 6-2 vs spread as favorite this year. Notre Dame lost to Navy last week for second time in three years; this is their first game in hostile stadium since Sept 26. Underdog covered last eight Irish games. Four of last five Pitt games, last three ND Games stayed under total. Big East favorites are 8-7 vs spread out of conference, 4-4 at home.
USC lost to Oregon, Oregon lost to Stanford, so Cardinal is an 11-point dog to USC; go figure. Trojans are 1-7 vs spread in last eight games, with last three wins by 7-6-5 points. Stanford scored 38-33-51 points in last three games, running ball for 249-254 yards in last two. Can freshman QB Luck engineer the road upset? Over is 3-1 in last four games for both USC, Stanford. Cardinal covered five of last six series games. Pac-10 home favorites are 8-9 against the spread.
Underdog covered 71% of Cal-Arizona games over last 21 meetings, with home side covering last four; Arizona lost last three visits here by 14-28-28 points, but this is best Wildcat team in years, going 4-1 with Foles as starting QB, scoring 37.6 ppg. Cal RB Best is out (concussion); they are 1-5 vs spread in last six games, 0-1 as home dog this year (30-3 vs USC). Cal was held to 14 or less points in all three of its losses. Pac-10 home underdogs are 8-5 vs spread.
Oregon State won last five games vs Washington by 27-15 average score; Beavers won four of last five games, with underdog 5-1 vs spread in last six contests. OSU gained 436+ yards in each of last four games. Huskies are 5-3 vs spread as underdog; they've lost five of six games since upset of USC, losing by point at UCLA last week, despite five takeaways by U-Dub (+4). The visiting team covered 11 of last 15 series games.
Home side won eight of last nine Miami-North Carolina games, with the Hurricanes losing last two visits here, 31-28/33-27. Since blowing 24-6 lead in loss to Florida State, Tar Heels allowed total of 23 points in wins over Va Tech/Duke. Miami scored 39 ppg in last three games; they're 3-1 on road (dog 3-1 vs spread). Last three Carolina games went over total; four of last five Miami games stayed under. ACC home dogs are 7-2.
Average total in last three Texas Tech-Oklahoma State games is 74.7, as . home side won last seven series games. Tech lost last three visits to this site by 4-7-2 points. Red Raiders are 6-0 if they score 31+ points, 0-3 if they don't. State held three of last four to 17 or less points- they won six of last seven games, Tech won four of last five. Three of last four OSU games stayed under total. Big 12 home favorites are 7-8 vs the spread.
Last big hurdle for TCU possibly playing for unlikely national title are Utah Utes, who beat Horned Frogs four of last five years (dogs 3-1 SU in last four), winning 27-20/32-18 here. Utes' only '09 loss is 31-24 (+4) at pretty good Oregon team- they held all six opponents since to 17 or less points. TCU covered last four games, winning by average score of 44-6, but three of those teams are awful. MWC home faves are 5-6. Five of last six Utah games stayed under total.
Auburn, Georgia both beat up on I-AA teams last week to end 1-3 skids; underdog covered three of their last four series games. Dawgs are 1-3 vs spread as favorite this year, giving up 37+ points in four of its six (3-3) SEC games- they have amazingly poor -16 turnover ratio in '09. Auburn is 2-1 as an underdog this year. This is bigger game for 5-5 Georgia, as Dawgs aren't bowl eligible yet, while 7-3 Auburn is. Favorites are 13-10 against the spread in SEC play this season.
Rest of the card
Boston College failed to cover its last five games as an ACC road fave; they're 0-3 on road this season, scoring 12.3 ppg. Virginia lost three in a row, by 25-11-35 points; they're 2-3 as an underdog.
Northwestern covered its last three road games. Illinois won last two games, scoring 38-35 points, after losing previous five games (11.8 ppg); four of last five Illini games stayed under.
Syracuse lost four of its last five games; their last five losses are all by 14+ points; Orange are 1-1 as road dogs (7-28/10-37). Louisville lost six of its last eight games; they're 1-0 as a favorite this year.
Michigan lost last five games vs I-A opponents, allowing 33 ppg; the Wolverines are 0-3 on road, losing by 6-2-25 points. Wisconsin scored 37-31 points in winning last two games; they're 2-4 as a favorite.
Indiana lost last three games by 1-18-3 points; they covered three of last four games. Penn State covered four of last five games as a favorite. Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Indiana games.
Florida State QB Ponder (shoulder) is out; Seminoles lost three games in row to Wake Forest. FSU lost four of last six games. Wake lost its last four games, the last three all by three or less points.
Underdog is 7-3 vs spread in Kentucky-Vanderbilt games; Wildcats are 2-1 away from home, 2-2 as favorite. Vandy lost its last six games, with four of the six by 16+ points.
Baylor freshman QB Florence was 32-43/427 in upset win at Mizzou last week; Bears 1-3 at home vs I-A foes this season, losing by 8-27-10 points. Texas covered three of its last four games.
Maryland lost its last four games but covered four of last five; they're 1-3 at home vs I-A teams, losing by 1-21-11 points. Virginia Tech is 1-2 in last three games, scoring an average of 18.7 ppg.
Western Michigan lost three of last four games, with only win by FG in OT vs Buffalo; they're 1-5 on road, 1-1 as favorite. Eastern Michigan is 0-9, 3-6 vs spread, giving up 63-50 points in last two games.
New Mexico is 0-9, 2-7 vs spread, 0-3 as home dog; three of their four home games stayed under total. BYU won five of last six games; they're 4-3 as favorite, 3-1 on road (road wins by 1-51-38-10-52 points).
UAB won last two games, scoring 38-56 points. Memphis fired its coach this week; they lost last three games, giving up 36-38-56 points. Three of last four UAB games went over the total.
Colorado lost four of last six games, giving up 30+ points both wins; Buffs are 0-5 on road, losing by 6-16-11-24-14 points. Iowa St. scored total of 27 points in last three games; they're 3-1 as a favorite.
Washington State is awful, losing last six games, but they're 3-1 vs the spread in last four games, 2-2 as home dog. UCLA snapped 5-game skid with 24-23 win vs Washington, when they were minus-4 in turnovers.
Idaho is 7-3 but lost to Fresno last week when QB Enderle (shoulder) sat game out; Vandals are 6-2 as an underdog this year. Boise State is 6-2 as favorite this year, 3-0 at home. Over is 5-2 in last seven Idaho tilts.
Erratic UTEP lost three of last four games, giving up 35 ppg in losses; they're 2-2 as dog this year. SMU is 0-2 as favorite; they're bowl eligible if they win here. Five of last seven UTEP games went over total.
Oregon is 5-0 at home, 3-1 as home favorite, winning by 2-7-39-46-27 points; four of their last five games went over total. Arizona State lost last three games, by 19-2-5 points; they're 3-1 as an underdog.
Kansas State is atop Big 12 North, winning three of last four games; they're 5-1 vs spread in last six, 1-1 as favorite. Missouri lost four of its last five games, giving up 38 ppg in its last three losses.
Texas A&M scored 40.3 ppg in last three games, but they've given up 30+ in five of last six; Aggies are 2-0 as underdog. Oklahoma is 5-4 after 10-3 loss at Nebraska where they missed three FGs (2-4-1 as favorite).
San Jose State is 0-7 vs I-A opponents, giving up 49.3 ppg last three games, losing last two 45-7/62-7. Four of their last five games went over total. Utah State is 1-7 vs I-A opponents, 1-2 as a favorite.
Nevada won last six games (4-2 vs spread), running ball for average of 418.8 ypg in those games; they're 3-1 as home favorite. Fresno won last five games; they're 2-1 as underdog. Last three Fresno tilts went under.
Rice is 0-9, Tulane 3-6 after they upset UTEP in OT last week; Owls are 1-5 vs spread in last five games, with last four going over total. Wave is 2-6 as an underdog, but an 0-9 team as a favorite?
Air Force is 3-1-1 as favorite, but they're off 35-7 rivalry win against Army last week and they have BYU up next, so letdown possible here against UNLV squad that is 2-4 against spread as an underdog.
South Carolina is fading late in year again, losing three of its last four games, with all three losses by 14+ points; Gamecocks are 4-2 as a dog this year, are only team that didn't vote Tebow all-SEC last summer.
Mississippi State covered four of last five games as underdog; three of their last four games stayed under total. Alabama is off emotional LSU win; they're 2-0 as road favorite, winning by 18-19 points.
Marshall is 2-0 as favorite this year, winning by 20-21 points; they're 6-1 vs spread in last seven games, with last seven games staying under total. Southern Miss is 0-4 on road, losing by 7-13-2-7 points.
Houston allowed 88 points in last two games, won both anyway; they won last five games, scoring 41.8 ppg, are 3-2 as favorite, 1-2 on road. UCF covered three of four games as an underdog this season.
Louisiana Tech is just 6-27 vs spread in last 33 games as a road dog. LSU is in Alabama/Ole Miss sandwich; Tigers covered three of last four as a favorite. Tech scored 69 points in last two games, still lost both.
Wyoming scored total of 10 points in losing last three games; Pokes were outscored 50-0 in second half of those games. Wyoming is 4-2-1 as an underdog this year. San Diego State is 1-2 as favorite in '09.
New Mexico State lost last three games, outscored 124-10; they're 2-5 vs spread as an underdog. Hawai'i snapped six-game skid last week, but they've still given up average of 39.4 ppg in last five games.
Arkansas State is 1-6 vs I-A opponents, 1-2 as favorite, but they're a road favorite at Florida Atlantic team with horrible special teams that is 2-6, giving up average of 36.4 ppg in their last five games.
Western Kentucky fired its coach this week; they're 0-9, covering one of last five games, with all four road games going over total. UL-Monroe is 3-0 as a favorite this year, winning those games by 13-6-27 points.
Troy won last seven games since 31-14/56-6 losses to open season-- Trojans are 1-1 as a dog- they scored 40+ points in last four games, but step way up in class here. All five Arkansas wins are by 17+ points.
North Texas lost seven of last eight games; they lost last three on road, allowing 47 ppg. FIU is 2-7 this year, 1-1 when favored- they turned the ball over eight times in their last two games (-4).
UL-Lafayette is 3-2 as underdog in '09; three of their last five games were decided by four or less points. Middle Tennessee scored 62-27-48 points in winning last three games; they're 4-0 vs spread when favored.
Tips and Trends
Florida at South Carolina
Florida (-17.5, O/U 42.5): This is the final road game of the regular season for Florida. This Gators defense has been terrific. In their last 3 road conference games, they've combined to give up 29 PTS. All 3 road conference games went UNDER the posted total. The Gators have played to the UNDER in 6 of their last 7 games. This Gator offense is struggling a bit, as they score 28 PPG. That is 17 PPG less than last year. Gators are only scoring a TD in the red zone 30% of the time this year. Q Tim Tebow is a touchdown machine, and will need to be efficient today when it counts most.
Florida is 10-1 ATS last 11 games as a road favorite.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games as a road favorite.
Key Injuries - LB Brandon Hicks (hamstring) is questionable.
OL Shawn Schmieder (flu) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 28 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
South Carolina: South Carolina is undefeated at home, winning all 4 games. Coach Spurrier will be facing his old team, and will need his offense to step up in order to be competitive today. South Carolina hasn't score 20 points or more since Oct. 10th. QB Stephen Garcia leads a passing game that's throw for more than 300 YDS in 3 consecutive games. This rushing attack is the worst in the SEC. South Carolina is playing for the 10th consecutive week.
South Carolina is 5-1 ATS last 6 games as an underdog more than 10.5.
Under is 5-0 last 5 games as a home underdog.
Key Injuries - DE Devin Taylor (sternum) is questionable.
S Chris Culliver (shoulder) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 10
Iowa at Ohio State
Iowa: The bad news for Iowa fans is the loss of QB Ricky Stanzi. He was the leader of this team, and played the biggest role in his teams success this season. The good news is the success the Hawkeyes have had on the road. Iowa has won all 4 road games this year, going 4-0 ATS. In those 4 games, they gave up a total of 36 points. Redshirt freshman QB James Vandenberg has big shoes to fill. He will lean on a running game that needs to play better. Iowa's rush offense has been held under 100 YDS rushing in 3 of its last 5 games.
Iowa is 10-1 ATS last 11 road games.
Under is 22-5-1 last 28 road games.
Key Injuries - QB Ricky Stanzi (leg) is out.
DB Brett Greenwood (shoulder) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 7
Ohio State (-16.5, O/U 37.5): Ohio St. has covered 8 of their last 9 games ATS. They've been great at home this year, and are playing their best football of the season. The winner of todays game is in the Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes defense leads this team, as they've only allowed 2 opponents to score 20 points or more all season. This defense also has 3 shutouts to their credit. Ohio St. has only allowed 8 TDs in the past 35 quarters. QB Terrelle Pryor leads an offense that has averaged 270 rushing YDS per game over it's past 3 games.
Ohio State is 7-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Favorite is 8-0 ATS last 8 meetings in this series.
Key Injuries - OL Mike Adams (knee) is questionable.
LB Andrew Sweat (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 31 (Side of the Day)