Washington (4-8) at (11) Hawaii (11-0)
GAME NOTES: The last of the college unbeatens will try to run the regular- season table this weekend as the 11th-ranked Hawaii Warriors defend their unblemished record versus Washington in a non-conference battle at Aloha Stadium. In 2006 it was the Western Athletic Conference's Boise State that threw a wrench into the ill-conceived BCS model by going undefeated and this year it's Hawaii's turn. Sure, the team has played some weak competition (see Northern Colorado and Charleston Southern) but that's partly because other power conference programs were wary about making the trip to the South Pacific and facing June Jones and his bunch. Last week the Warriors put an end to Boise State's dominance in the WAC by capturing the league title outright with a 39-27 victory at home. The win was the team's 12th straight (a school record) and the 15th in a row in WAC competition, consequently moving the Warriors to 12th in the BCS standings which is exactly where the squad needs to be in order to be picked to go to one of the BCS bowl games. As for the Huskies, they've gone from winning back-to-back games to start 2007 to a mere two wins in the last 10 outings. Last weekend the squad lost out on the prestigious Apple Cup with a 42-35 setback versus Washington State in Seattle. With a record of 4-8 and just 2-7 in Pac-10 Conference play, this is the Huskies' swan song to the campaign. The teams have played twice before, with each squad claiming one victory. Washington captured the 1938 Pineapple Bowl over the Warriors and Hawaii returned the favor with an early-season victory over the Huskies during the 1973 campaign.
With an 89-yard kickoff return for a touchdown to open the meeting with Washington State, the Huskies probably thought they were in a good position to pick up the win on Saturday, but it just wasn't meant to be. Jake Locker tried everything to get Washington over the hump, hitting 12-of-35 for 224 yards and a score, but he was also sacked once and picked off two times. The signal- caller also rallied for 103 yards and a pair of TDs on the ground on 14 carries, still not enough to stem the tide. Locker was supposed to be the savior for the Huskies this season, but somewhere along the way he hit the wall and is now completing just 46.9 percent of his attempts for 174.5 ypg. He has 14 touchdowns through the air, but has also forced the ball far too many times, resulting in just as many picks. As a team the Huskies have a pass efficiency rating of 107.98, which heading into this week has the squad ranked seventh in the conference and 107th in the nation. On the ground he's second behind Louis Rankin (1,149 yards, six TDs) in terms of yardage with 910, but he has often called his own number to get the squad into the end zone, a total of 12 times on the ground.
The pass defense for the Huskies did little to help out Locker and the offense last weekend, permitting Washington State to generate 399 yards and five touchdowns through the air in the close call. While the Huskies were coming up with just 464 yards on 87 offensive plays, WSU was posting 509 yards on 21 fewer snaps, mainly because the secondary was surrendering close to 15 yards per completion. E.J. Savannah led the attack with his 11 tackles, two of which were behind the line of scrimmage, while Daniel Te'o-Nesheim tacked on nine tackles, of which four were for loss and two came against the quarterback. Te'o-Nesheim is one of the conference leaders in terms of sacks and tackles for loss with 7.5 and 14.0, respectively, while Greyson Gunheim supplies plenty of support with his 6.5 sacks and 11.0 TFLs. Savannah checks in with a team-best 103 tackles and another 12.0 TFLs, and yet the team as a whole is still just sixth in the league and 30th in the nation with 6.9 TFLs per contest. As a result, the Huskies have a scoring defense that is second-to- last in the league and 94th nationally with a hefty 31.3 ppg allowed.
He may not have been saying it to everyone on the outside, but you could tell that Hawaii quarterback Colt Brennan was excited about registering a few NCAA records last week versus Boise State. Sure, the eight-point win in front of a sell-out crowd was great because it kept the Warriors in the hunt for a BCS berth but for Brennan, who finished with 495 yards passing and five touchdowns through the air (another on the ground), surpassing former Heisman winner Ty Detmer for the major college record for most career touchdowns, most TDs responsible for and most points responsible for, he also converted some non- believers. Hitting on almost 70 percent of his pass attempts, Brennan is averaging 373.2 ypg through the air and has 33 touchdowns, even though he's missed the better part of two games. The receiving corps for the Warriors never ceases to amaze as Davone Bess comes in four catches shy of 100 for the season and already has 12 TDs, followed by Ryan Grice-Mullen (90 rec, 1,214 yards, 11 TDs) and Jason Rivers (68 rec, 902 yards, nine TDs), the former combining with Brennan to tie the record for the most passing scores between two players with 39.
Getting into the win column was one thing for the Warriors, but doing so by limiting Boise State to just a single offensive touchdown in the final 38 minutes was quite an impressive feat. The Broncos tested Hawaii several times, specifically when they bucked the trends and went on fourth down four times, converting three opportunities, and still the home team did not back down. Solomon Elimimian led all tacklers with 14 stops, while Blaze Soares scorched the visitors for three stops behind the line of scrimmage and a sack. Jacob Patek logged two of his four tackles behind the line, had a sack and an interception for the Warriors. Maybe the Warriors didn't completely shut down Boise State, but compared to how poorly the defense has performed for the team in past seasons it is still a huge step in the right direction. The squad is first in the WAC in both sacks and tackles for loss per game with 3.45 and 8.64, respectively. The pressure up front has helped the secondary as well, resulting in the team posting a pass efficiency defense rating of 111.63, which happens to be best in the WAC and 19th in the country heading into action this weekend.
Facing off against Boise State last week was more pressure than the Warriors had ever imagined, yet their still fought through it and came out on top. A healthy Brennan still has an outside chance at being invited to New York for the Heisman Trophy presentation, but he'll need to be at the top of his game this weekend to earn the trip to the mainland.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Hawaii 49, Washington 27
What bettors need to know: Army-Navy
Covers.com
Army and Navy have never been mentioned in BCS discussions. Additionally, more bets are likely to arrive on Saturday’s various conference championship games.
However, when the Army Black Knights suit up Saturday in Baltimore against the Navy Midshipmen, most football fans will tune in to the CBS broadcast.
The uniforms in the stands underline why the Army-Navy rivalry means more than any other. The SEC championship game in Atlanta will feature loads of players who will someday reach the NFL. Army-Navy features players who will go on to less lucrative, but far more important callings.
And that’s why I want to give the game the Covers.com spotlight for a couple of days, even though it won’t attract as much betting action as the conference championships.
The setting and the possible line
As usual, Army-Navy is taking place at a neutral site. However, this year’s game at M&T Stadium marks just the fourth time the teams have met in Baltimore.
Navy is favored to win for the sixth straight season. The Middies are 7-4 and bowl-bound again, having already accepted an invitation to the Poinsetta Bowl. The Black Knights are 3-8, doomed for yet another losing season.
The Midshipmen sit as a 14-point favorite. The total sits at 65½ points.
Since both service academies are coming off a bye week, they will each have ample time to prepare for the season finale.
The recent history
The series all-time record was knotted at 49-49-7 after 2005, with Navy taking a one-game lead after last year’s 26-14 win in Philadelphia. The historically close record doesn’t reflect the lopsided nature of this series in recent years.
Navy has won five straight games by a combined score of 202-68. The Midshipmen covered the spread as a favorite in four of those five meetings, only failing to do so as a 19-point favorite last year.
Mother of all mismatches
Navy boasts the nation’s top ground attack, while Army ranks 118th out of 119 schools in defending the run. The turf between the tackles will be chewed up after 60 minutes.
The Middies’ ground attack will be boosted even more by the return of quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, who missed Navy’s last outing. Though he’s listed as day-to-day, Annapolis newspapers suggest he’ll line up under center.
Kaheaku-Enhada is an experienced hand at running Navy’s triple-option attack and has almost as many rushing yards (755) this season as he has passing yards (823).
The Black Knights have been particularly horrid against the run during their current five-game losing streak, allowing an average of 301 yards and 3.6 touchdowns. That includes back-to-back games against Air Force and Rutgers where Army conceded more than 400 rushing yards.
They can defend freedom, but not the pass
Though Navy will participate in a bowl game for the fifth straight season, it hasn’t played in the postseason with such a porous defense as its current version.
The Middies are allowing 39.5 points per game and have coughed up some unbelievable totals to non-powerhouse schools. Football Championship Subdivision’s Delaware, for example, racked up 581 yards and 59 points against Navy not long ago. More recently, North Texas (1-9) gained 635 total yards of offense and scored 62 against the Middies.
That’s encouraging for an Army team that just posted a season-high 39 points against Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane’s fast-paced attack let the Black Knights run 81 offensive plays, easily their highest total of the year. Army should be able to run as many plays on Saturday, as Navy’s defense has been on the field for at least 72 plays in each of the last seven games.
The key player
Army quarterback Carson Williams had a career game against Tulsa, connecting for 328 yards and three touchdowns through the air one week after being benched twice against Rutgers.
"He made some clutch plays when he needed to," Army head coach Stan Brock told reporters after the Tulsa game. "He was probably seeing the field better and he was making some good plays. He had some really super throws and not much pressure on him. He made smart decisions today. He's getting better."
Army may not have much of a chance to defeat Navy. However, if Williams sees the field Saturday as well as he did against Tulsa, the Black Knights definitely have an opportunity to cover the spread.
Big XII Championship Preview
VegasInsider.com
Congratulations, Missouri (11-1 straight up, 8-2-1 against the spread)…you’re the next No. 1 destined to fall during the college football season.
No offense to Gary Pinkel, Chase Daniel and Martin Rucker, but your Tigers are about to find themselves as just another team with unfulfilled dreams in a season full of them. This will be extra painful because winning the Big XII title game would clinch their spot in New Orleans for the BCS national championship game.
Oddly enough though, you won’t hear the people in Columbus, Ohio feeling bad for Mizzou when they lose.
I understand that you need proof before buying what I’m selling…so here we go.
We’ll start with Oklahoma’s (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) 41-31 win over the Tigers as a 12½-point home favorite.
Sam Bradford was effective in reading Mizzou’s defense, completing 70 percent (24 of 34) of his passes for 266 yards and a pair of scores. The Sooners’ offensive line was strong, allowing just one sack and giving the running backs ample time to rack up 118 yards.
In fact, Bradford has had only one really bad outing in his freshman campaign under center. And that was in Week 5 at Colorado, where he tossed a pair of interceptions that lead to 14 points in the Buffs’ 27-24 upset of OU.
I don’t count his three pass attempt showing against Texas Tech because he got his clock cleaned in the first quarter, sitting out the remainder of the game with a concussion. If anything, it showed how important he was to the Sooners’ offensive gameplan.
The oddsmakers are siding with Oklahoma, installing them as a three-point favorite with a total of 67. Both numbers have remained sessile since being made on Nov. 25. What makes it surprising to me is that Mizzou is the top ranked team in the land, but posted as a ‘dog.
How rare is it for a top team not to be favored? In the BCS era, there are only two times that a No. 1 squad was listed as a dog. The top ranked Seminoles fell to No. 3 Florida as three-point pups, 52-20, in the 1997 Sugar Bowl. The Buckeyes were in a similar situation last year at No. 2 Texas, but won as three-point road 'dogs, 24-7.
Ken White, chief operating officer of Las Vegas Sports Consultants, figures home field helped out when making the line for the first game. “At the time the first game was played, we felt Oklahoma was 3½-points better than Missouri and the market felt they were 7½-points better.” White adds, “I have a plus-six for their (the Sooners’) home field.”
It turns out that the spread could have been a bit bigger if one player was going to be on the field for the Crimson and Cream, DeMarco Murray. “Murray by himself,” White concludes “is worth one point to the line.”
Murray, a true freshman from Las Vegas, went down with a dislocated kneecap in the loss to Texas Tech. And while the Sooners will miss his speed, they didn’t need him the last time against Mizzou. Instead, Oklahoma installed a platoon of Chris Brown (13 carries, 67 yards, three touchdowns) and Allen Patrick (11 rushes, 44 yards).
Recent history is also on Oklahoma’s side for this tilt, going 9-1 SU and 5-4-1 ATS in its last 10 meetings with the Tigers.
Another thing the Sooners have on Missouri in this matchup is familiarity with the stage at which they’re playing. OU will be playing in its sixth Big XII title game, the Tigers are making their first appearance. Oklahoma’s record so far in the conference final is a stellar 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS.
If you need another trend, think about rematches that have occurred in the Big XII championship game. Teams that lost the first game posted a 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in the four instances that it has happened. And Oklahoma was involved in two of those meetings. Texas was the only team to fall after beating their title game foe during the regular season, losing 22-6 to Nebraska back in 1999.
Kick-off is set for 8:00 pm EDT with ABC broadcasting the contest nationally.
College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet
Covers.com
Virginia Tech vs. Boston College (+4½)
Why Hokies cover: Virginia Tech has won and covered in four straight games and six of its last seven. The Hokies allow the second-fewest points per game in the nation (15.4) and the fourth-fewest yards (285.3).
Why Eagles cover: Boston College is averaging over 100 yards more per game than the Hokies. Earlier this season, the Eagles recorded a 14-10 come-from-behind win at Virginia Tech. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight against the Hokies.
Total (46½): The over is 4-1 in the Hokies’ last five games as a favorite.
Tennessee vs. Louisiana State (-7½)
Why Volunteers cover: Tennessee has covered in four of its last five games. Quarterback Erik Ainge threw for a career-high 397 yards and a school-record seven TDs in last week’s 52-50 win over Kentucky.
Why Tigers cover: LSU covered in two of its last three meetings with Tennessee. The Tigers rank third in the nation in total defense (280.1 yards per game), while their offense is scoring 40.2 points per contest behind QB Matt Flynn.
Total (60½): The over is 7-0 in the Tigers’ last seven games overall.
Oregon State at Oregon (N/A)
Why Beavers cover: Oregon will be without star quarterback Dennis Dixon, who suffered a season-ending injury in the loss to Arizona. Backup Brady Leaf is injured too and the Ducks will likely have to go with a fourth or fifth-string quarterback. The Beavers have covered in five of their last six games.
Why Ducks cover: Oregon is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games overall. Has covered the spread in three of its last four against Oregon State. The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these teams.
Total (N/A): The over is 5-0 in the last five games between Oregon and Oregon State.
UCLA at Southern California (-20½)
Why Bruins cover: UCLA has covered the spread in two of its last three games against USC and in two straight games overall. Quarterback Ben Olsen, who has 1,040 yards and seven TDs this season, returned from injury in last week’s win over Oregon.
Why Trojans cover: USC is sixth in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 16.7 points per game. The Bruins, meanwhile, are second-last in the Pac-10 in scoring (24.4) and scored just one touchdown last week.
Total (46½): The under is 8-1 in the Trojans’ last nine games overall.
Brigham Young at San Diego State (+15)
Why Cougars cover: Brigham Young has won 16 straight conference games, including five of its last six against San Diego State. It also covered the spread in five of those six games.
Why Aztecs cover: San Diego State has covered in four of its last five. The last time the Cougars traveled to San Diego (2005), the Aztecs recorded an impressive 31-10 home win to cover a 3-point spread.
Total (55½): The over is 4-0 in the Aztecs last five conference games and last five overall.
Pittsburgh at West Virginia (-28)
Why Panthers cover: Freshman running back LeSean McCoy ran for three TDs last week and is one short of the single-season record for a freshman. The Panthers have covered the spread in their last two road games.
Why Mountaineers cover: Quarterback Pat White had one of the best games of his career against the Panthers last season, running for 220 yards and two touchdowns and passing for 204 yards and another two scores. The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five against Pittsburgh.
Total (58½): The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams in Virginia.
Oklahoma vs. Missouri (+3)
Why Sooners cover: Oklahoma recorded a 41-31 win over Missouri on Oct. 13, the Tigers’ only loss of the season. Sooners quarterback Sam Bradford has thrown for an NCAA freshman-record 32 touchdowns this season.
Why Tigers cover: Missouri quarterback Chase Daniel, a serious contender for the Heisman Trophy, has thrown for a career-best 3,951 yards and 33 touchdowns. The Tigers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Total (67): The under is 13-3-1 in Oklahoma’s last 17 conference games.
Arizona at Arizona State (-7)
Why Wildcats cover: Arizona has won three in a row and covered the spread each time. QB Willie Tuitama threw for 1,117 yards and 10 TDs during this streak.
Why Sun Devils cover: Arizona State is second in the conference with 33.3 points per game. QB Rudy Carpenter is third in the Pac-10 in yards (2,768) and touchdowns (21). The Sun Devils are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a losing record.
Total (57½): The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams.
Washington at Hawaii (-14)
Why Huskies cover: Starting quarterback Jake Locker returned from injury to throw 224 yards and a touchdown last week. Locker has thrown for 1,920 yards and 14 touchdowns this season.
Why Warriors cover: Hawaii is the only unbeaten team left in the Football Bowl Subdivision. The Warriors rank third in the nation in total offense (528.5 yards per game) and are outscoring opponents by an average of 23.4 points.
Total (74): The under is 5-1 in Hawaii’s last six home games.
Tennessee-LSU Preview
ESPN.com
LSU will have to try and put its triple-OT loss to Arkansas in the past as the Tigers face Tennessee for the SEC title. The Vols, winners of five straight games, fared better last week, beating Kentucky in 4 OTs. The winner likely plays in the Sugar
A spot in the BCS, a trip to the Superdome in New Orleans and a potential national championship were all right there for LSU. After losing its regular-season finale, two of those three are still there for the taking, but the big prize may be unreachable.
The fifth-ranked Tigers will try to rebound from a devastating loss when they meet No. 14 Tennessee on Saturday in the SEC championship game in Atlanta.
Ranked No. 1 again after having given up that spot following a triple-overtime defeat at Kentucky on Oct. 13, LSU had only Arkansas standing in its way before the SEC title game and then, assuming all went well, a trip to the BCS championship game on Jan. 7.
But something about triple overtime and the Tigers (10-2, 6-2) just hasn't meshed this season.
Darren McFadden had 206 yards rushing and Arkansas ran right through LSU's SEC-best rush defense, totaling 385 yards on the ground on its way to a 50-48 victory in three overtimes last Friday.
"Right now, there's a goal of our football team taken off the board and it's sad," LSU coach Les Miles said. "(After this), we'll be sick."
As the Tigers look ahead to Tennessee (9-3, 6-2), a victory over the Volunteers would clinch the SEC's automatic BCS bid and likely place LSU in New Orleans -- but it would be playing in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1 rather than for the national championship six days later.
Should current BCS Nos. 1 and 2 Missouri and West Virginia both lose this weekend, the possibility exists that the Tigers, currently seventh in the BCS, could move up. They might be able to jump ahead of idle Georgia, which didn't win its division in the SEC, idle Kansas, which didn't win its division in the Big 12, and a Virginia Tech team they beat by 41 in September. Ohio State would figure to have a spot sewn up should that scenario unfold, leaving No. 2 up for grabs.
But Miles insists he isn't thinking ahead -- particularly coming off a loss.
"Beyond this weekend's games, the opportunity for the champion should be a tremendous opportunity," Miles said. "If you win the conference, that conference championship should carry a lot of weight with a lot of people."
Miles spent a good portion of the week leading up to the Arkansas game trying to silence rumors that he would leave LSU for Michigan, his alma mater. With the firing of Bill Callahan at Nebraska last Saturday, talks of Tigers defensive coordinator Bo Pelini returning to Lincoln -- where he once held the same position -- have heated up.
"Bo Pelini has not traveled to any place," Miles said. "He is focused on the task at hand and I don't think he would have it any other way."
Buried somewhat because of the poor defensive play against Arkansas was the running of LSU's Jacob Hester. The senior fullback, who leads the team with 897 yards, had his best game of the season, carrying 28 times for 126 yards and two scores.
Matt Flynn has had an up-and-down season, throwing 10 interceptions, and particularly struggled in the Kentucky loss. Though he wasn't accurate against Arkansas, completing just 22 of 47 passes, he threw three touchdowns and ran for another -- without turning the ball over.
Tennessee is coming off a wild overtime finish as well. The Volunteers blew a 31-14 third-quarter lead, but outlasted Kentucky 52-50 in four overtimes on the road to clinch a spot in Atlanta.
"To win that game under such circumstances, we were very fortunate," said Tennessee's Erik Ainge, who threw for a career-high 397 yards and a school-record seven touchdowns. "We somehow got it done. It wasn't perfect on either side but we find a way to get it done."
The Volunteers began the season ranked No. 15, but were out of the polls completely following two blowout losses in their first three games. They won their next three to climb back to No. 20, but a 24-point loss at Alabama dropped them out again.
Fans were calling for coach Phillip Fulmer's job after the loss to the Crimson Tide. His players responded by winning their next five games.
"We were 1-2 and everyone had given us up for dead," Fulmer said. "We had one of those Sunday night player meetings, where you pound on the podium and tell them what they need to do to be a better football team, and to their credit, they have listened."
Ainge has been the catalyst, completing 64.2 percent of his passes for 2,908 yards with 27 touchdowns and eight interceptions. With decent numbers against LSU and in the Volunteers' bowl game, the senior will be second on the school's all-time yardage list for a season, behind only Peyton Manning.
He's been helped by having Arian Foster in the backfield. The junior tailback's 1,107 yards rushing are tied for the 11th-most in school history for a single season. He had 118 against Kentucky along with 98 receiving yards.
"No one has really given us a shot all season," Foster said. "We play with heart, and we take our wins however we can get them."
These teams met in the 2001 SEC championship game. Tennessee was ranked No. 2 and was set to play for the BCS title with a win, but No. 21 LSU upset the Volunteers 31-20.
Tennessee leads the all-time series 20-6-3. The teams split their meetings in 2005 and 2006, with each winning on the road.
Cowan to start at quarterback
He hasn't played since suffering a collapsed lung at Arizona on Nov. 3, but he led Bruins to a victory over their rival last season. Olson also might play.
UCLA will go with the quarterback who has beaten USC, though whether he is the one who finishes the game against the Trojans is to be seen.
Patrick Cowan, who ran the offense last season in a 13-9 victory over the Trojans, will start Saturday, Coach Karl Dorrell said Thursday. But Dorrell did not rule out using Ben Olson in a game the Bruins probably have to win to save Dorrell's job.
"Ben I think is going to be up and ready to play," Dorrell said. "He's not 100%, but he is much further along than last week. We'll see how the game unfolds."
Olson, who had sat out four games because of a knee injury, played the second half against Oregon last Saturday. Olson said after the Oregon game that he expected to start against USC, but that "the decision is not mine to make."
Cowan, who hasn't played since suffering a collapsed lung against Arizona on Nov. 3, helped give the offense a jolt, allowing the Bruins to score enough points to upset the second-ranked Trojans last season.
He threw for only 114 yards in the game but had 55 yards on four scrambles during the Bruins' 91-yard drive for their only touchdown. Cowan scored on a one-yard run.
"His mobility was the determining factor," Dorrell said.
Dorrell said that Osaar Rasshan would be another option. The Bruins need to beat USC and have Arizona State lose to Arizona to reach the Rose Bowl.
A Rose Bowl berth is believed to be the only way Dorrell can ensure his return next season.
This is the second consecutive year Olson has entered the season as the No. 1 quarterback and his season has been interrupted by injuries.
He played in only five games in 2006 before sustaining a torn medial collateral ligament in his left knee.
"Life is interesting, definitely," Olson said about being injured two consecutive seasons. "You just have to make the most of the situation. I have learned through experience that it doesn't do any good to worry about things you have no control over.
"It has been tough in a lot of ways. We haven't had the type of season that we would have wanted as far as a team. For me, personally, it hasn't gone the way I envisioned it would go. You have to dust yourself off and keep going."
Olson, a former Brigham Young player considered the top recruit in the nation when he came out of Thousand Oaks High in 2002, has one season of eligibility remaining.
Tailback Craig Sheppard's availability will be a game-time decision. He has not practiced this week while recovering from a groin injury.
Sheppard, a walk-on who was the Bruins' No. 2 tailback against Oregon, has the last two touchdowns scored by the Bruins' offense, a two-yard run against Arizona State and a 20-yard run against Oregon.
"He felt better today and did some drill work on the side," Dorrell said. "The trainers wanted him to get another day of rest."
If Sheppard can't play, Chane Moline and Christian Ramirez will backup starter Chris Markey.
Junior tailback Kahlil Bell, who sustained a torn anterior cruciate in his right knee against Washington State on Oct. 27, will have surgery Tuesday. Bell, who remains the Bruins' leading rusher with 795 yards, probably will not be ready for spring practice.
latimes.com
All you need to know about this weekend's CFB action
Welcome to the final Weekend Primer of the regular season. All these upsets have been fun and entertaining and everything, but look at the havoc they've wrought: at this point we're virtually assured of the least marquee title game since Robbie Bosco and BYU claimed their national championship ... after winning the Holiday Bowl. And to those who believe that the current system is fine and that the regular season is a playoff, since everyone else has lost during said playoff, does that mean you've got Hawaii ranked No. 1?
Game of the Week
Oklahoma vs. Missouri in the Big 12 title game. If you're looking for one single fact that sums up this bizarro season, here it is: The so-called number one team in the nation is an underdog in this game. Which means they'll probably dominate.
The pick: Sooners by 3
Game of the Weak
Cal vs. Stanford. After coming within seconds of the No. 1 ranking, the Golden Bears have disappeared faster than the speed of DeSean Jackson's mouth. Stanford, meanwhile, has been the ultimate enigma under first year head coach Jim Harbaugh: an inconsistent, Trojan-killing, choking-against-Notre Dame, loudmouthed enigma. Still, the best part of this Bay Area rivalry is that we're treated to endless reruns of the greatest play in sports history.
The pick: Cal by 13
Les Miles Juggernaut Schedule Award
As the SEC continues to back up Les Miles' claim that USC has an easier road than if it played in Dixie, LSU backs into an SEC title showdown with spectacularly average Tennessee. In a fitting showcase of the best defensive conference in the country, this game features teams that have given up 34, 41, 43, 45, 50 (twice) and 59 points this season. What is widely considered to be top-to-bottom toughness in the SEC would pass for mediocrity everywhere else.
The pick: LSU by 7
GE/NBC Investment Tracker
Tracking the fortunes of college football's greatest corporation, Notre Dame, we find the stock to be ... holding steady. Our long national nightmare is over: the Irish have no more games to play. Yes, they did end the season on a two-game winning streak, but now is not the time to start lighting couches on fire in South Bend (after all, it's not like Stanford has beaten anybody this year). Charlie Weis supporters say he's stockpiling a horde of blue chip recruits; he must be hiding them in that oversized hoodie. So we can look forward to an Irish team that will be twice as good next year ... which means they'll go from three wins to six, and will become the first 6-5 team to receive an at-large BCS bid.
The pick: ND begins next season in the Top 20.
Jim Harbaugh Prediction Watch
USC's quest to fulfill Jim Harbaugh's Nostradamus-like prophecy as the greatest team ever (to not bother showing up for 80% of the season), continues in Los Angeles, where the Trojans take on crosstown rival UCLA. Yes, Los Angelenos are known for showing up fashionably late, but seriously, Pete Carroll, your team finally gracing us with its presence eleven games into the season is a little too fashionable.
The pick: USC by 17
Cops: Collegetown
This week's law enforcement roundup takes us to Iowa City, where former Iowa football player Lee Gray was arrested last week for allegedly selling cocaine to an undercover police officer. In a related story, Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz has been selling an underachieving program to Hawkeyes fans for several years now.
Stiff-Armed
In a muddled, chaotic season, we will have a fitting Heisman winner: the best player from either the fifth-best team in the SEC (Florida's Tim Tebow) or the sixth-best team in the SEC (Arkansas' Darren McFadden). In a related note, it looks like that 'Glenn Dorsey for Heisman' campaign probably ran out of gas somewhere around the sixth Razorback touchdown. Oh, and sorry, Chase Daniel, your team's record is too good for you to have any real chance at the trophy.
1. Tim Tebow
2. Darren McFadden
3. Chase Daniel
4. Dennis Dixon
5. Not Brady Leaf
Rivalry Month
Back in the sport's old days (you know, the era when the Chick-fil-A Bowl was known as the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl), all the best rivalry games were played on the same day: The Game. The Big Game. The Civil War. Bedlam. The Iron Bowl. The Backyard Brawl. The Apple Cup. But television and wacky scheduling have stretched these classic matchups out over three weeks. Picking through the ruins of yet another great tradition, here's a quick rundown of the best remaining rivalry games:
Oregon State vs. Oregon: Come on, Dennis Dixon on crutches has to be better than the other stiffs the Ducks trotted out last week
Pick: UO by 3
Pitt vs. West Virginia: The Mountaineers' title hopes would be on shakier ground if they weren't matching up against Dave Wann-stache
Pick: WVU by 28
Arizona vs. Arizona State: The winner can change its reputation from sun-tanned party school to sun-tanned party school with the better football team; this one's for bragging rights all over Lake Havasu.
Pick: ASU by 7
Army vs. Navy: See above (just kidding).
Pick: Navy by 14
And the Granddaddy of Them All...
North Texas vs. Florida International: Sure, they're a combined 2-20, but in a showdown like this, you can throw the records out the window. In fact, you really should.
Pick: UNT by 3
Weekend Primer Classifieds
Seeking experienced coach to resurrect moribund once-dominant program. Experience with spread offense and familiarity with blue chip high school recruits preferred. Heavy travel (once a week, not including recruiting visits). Long-term contract negotiable but not likely to be honored. Positions open in Ann Arbor, Lincoln, Fayetteville, Atlanta, and possibly Los Angeles and Baton Rouge.
Odds and Ends
One of the enduring quirks of this season is that the SEC and Pac-10 have completely switched personalities: the SEC is home to 50-point thrillers and shootouts, while the Pac-10 boasts low-scoring, defensive slugfests ... Seriously, I was just kidding about the Army-Navy game ... Nothing says college football tradition like crowning your champion January 8th on Fox ... Auburn cornerback Jerraud Powers was bitten by a police canine during Saturday's Iron Bowl, marking the third time a Dog has bitten the Tigers this season ... Speaking of the Iron Bowl, the season of college coaches switching jobs just doesn't feel right without Nick Saban's name attached to every single opening, does it?
And finally, in honor of the coaching carousel cranking up to full speed, Weekend Primer will leave you with...
"After you retire, there's only one big event left ... and I ain't ready for that."
-- Bobby Bowden, Florida State coach
sportsillustrated.cnn.com
LSU vs. Tennessee
VegasInsider.com
The SEC Championship Game will not have an impact on who plays for the national title this year, so it isn’t necessarily a stretch to imply that this game has lost some of its luster. Nevertheless, every SEC football program covets a conference title and one will be at stake Saturday at the Georgia Dome.
Most sports books are listing LSU (10-2 straight up, 4-7-1 against the spread) as a 7½-point favorite with the total in the 60-61 range. Bettors can back Tennessee to win outright for a plus 240 return (risk $100 to win $240).
LSU clinched the SEC West by virtue of Georgia’s win over Auburn way back on Nov. 10. However, the Tigers were eliminated from national-title contention when they lost a 50-48 decision to Arkansas in triple overtime last Friday.
Les Miles’ team lost outright to the Razorbacks as a 13-point ‘chalk.’ For the second time this year, top-ranked LSU lost in three OT’s as a double-digit favorite. The Tigers lost 43-37 at Kentucky as 10-point favorites back on Oct. 13.
Tennessee (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) didn’t punch its ticket to Atlanta until last week when the Volunteers edged Kentucky 52-50 in four overtimes. They took the cash as 2 ½-point underdogs.
Senior quarterback Erik Ainge threw for 397 yards and seven touchdowns to lead UT to its 23rd straight win over UK. Arian Foster ran for 118 yards and also had nine receptions for 98 yards.
When Antonio Reynolds stuffed Andre Woodson on a two-point conversion attempt, UT completed its run from a left-for-dead 1-2 squad to SEC East champion. The Vols finished 6-2 in SEC play, winning the tiebreaker over Georgia thanks to a 35-14 home win over the Dawgs.
Gamblers have to consider a number of factors before placing a wager on this contest. For starters, where is LSU’s psyche after being dismissed from the national-title picture? Furthermore, how much is the Miles-to-Michigan distraction impacting this team? Are the players tuning out their head coach at this point?
Not only are there rampant rumors about the pending departure of Miles, but defensive coordinator Bo Pelini is also being considered for job openings at Nebraska and Georgia Tech. Plus, offensive coordinator Gary Crowton has been mentioned as a possible candidate at G-Tech and So. Miss.
As if those aren’t enough factors to possibly distract LSU, there’s also an injury to starting QB Matt Flynn’s throwing shoulder that has kept him out of practice most of the week. As of early Friday, Flynn’s status was a question mark.
According to yours truly, there’s not much of a fall-off (if any) from Flynn to back-up Ryan Perrilloux. Certainly, they are different players with Flynn more of a pocket passer (think former LSU QBs Tommy Hodson and Jeff Wickersham), while Perrilloux is more of the scrambling type like Herb Tyler.
The third-year sophomore, who has had some off-field problems while waiting for his turn behind JaMarcus Russell and now Flynn, has been used like Tim Tebow was behind Chris Leak last year. Perrilloux provides a dynamic running dimension, often replacing Flynn in short-yardage situations.
Perrilloux has completed 68.9 percent of his passes (31-for-45) for 451 yards, with a 7/1 touchdown-interception ratio. He averages 4.5 yards per carry and has run for a pair of touchdowns. Flynn has completed 55.1 percent of his throws for 2,233 yards, with a 17/10 TD-INT ratio.
Although I feel like LSU can function -- and possibly thrive -- if Flynn can’t go, my opinion might be in the minority.
“I think Flynn makes a big difference and I prefer the experience factor you get with him over Perilloux, especially in a big game like this,” VI handicapper Christian Alexander said. “Some athletes just get good vibes at certain venues and remember, Flynn had his coming-out party at the Georgia Dome.”
Alexander is making reference to the Peach Bowl two years ago when Flynn made his first career start, sparking LSU to a 40-3 blowout win over Miami as a seven-point underdog.
Regardless of who is under center, the Tigers can run the football effectively. Jacob Hester carries the bulk of the rushing load, scoring 11 TDs and averaging 5.0 YPC. Keiland Williams (6.7 YPC), Charles Scott (7.4 YPC) and Trindon Holliday (6.7 YPC) are also more than capable on the ground, combining for 13 rushing TDs.
Tennessee doesn’t have any issues at the QB position. Ainge has connected on 64.2 percent of his passes for 2,908 yards, with a 27/8 TD-INT ratio.
With LaMarcus Coker getting kicked off the team midway through the season, Foster has become the featured back. He has responded with 1,107 rushing yards and 12 TDs, averaging 5.3 YPC.
This is a rematch of the 2001 SEC Championship Game when LSU denied UT a trip to the Rose Bowl to face Miami in the BCS title game. That’s because Matt Mauk replaced an injured Rohan Davey and led the Tigers to a 31-20 win as 6½-point underdogs.
The Vols have a 3-2 spread record as underdogs this year, but they have won outright in three consecutive ‘dog spots.
The ‘over’ has hit in seven consecutive LSU games and is 8-1 overall. Meanwhile, the Vols have seen the ‘over’ go 6-4.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Tennessee has been to four SEC Championship Games under Phillip Fulmer. The Vols beat Auburn and Mississippi State in 1997 and ’98, respectively, but they failed to cover the number both times. They are 1-3 ATS in SEC title games with the lone cover coming in a 2004 loss to Auburn (38-28 as 14½-point ‘dogs).
--LSU won a pair of SEC’s under Nick Saban in ’01 and ’03. The Tigers made it to the Ga. Dome under Miles in ’05, but they dropped a 34-14 decision to Georgia as 1½-point favorites.
--LSU went 1-6-1 ATS in eight SEC games this year.
--LSU has only been a single-digit ‘chalk’ twice this season, posting an 0-1-1 ATS mark. The Bayou Bengals rallied to beat Florida 28-24 as 7½-point favorites, and they knocked off Alabama 41-34 as seven-point road ‘chalk.’
Old school versus new school' matchup for the BCS title, with Missouri, West Virginia and Ohio State as the favorite teams
Favored by at least 28 points Saturday against Pittsburgh, second-ranked West Virginia has the easiest path to a berth in the Bowl Championship Series title game Jan. 7 in New Orleans.
If the Mountaineers get by Pitt - you'd have to risk nearly $60 to win $1 that West Virginia will win outright, if you can find a money line on the game - they would most likely meet Missouri or Ohio State for the BCS title, the closest thing we have to a college football national championship.
Missouri is No. 1 in the BCS standings but enters Saturday's game against Oklahoma as a 3-point underdog. Ohio State, No. ¯3 in the BCS standings, has the week off and would probably move up if either West Virginia or Missouri lost.
A title game between Ohio State and West Virginia would be the most competitive from a betting angle, with a projected point spread of "pick 'em," according to Las Vegas sports betting analyst R.J. Bell.
If Missouri advanced to the title game, the Tigers would be a 3-point underdog to either Ohio State or West Virginia, Bell said.
"If Missouri was playing the game today, I think it would be 3 1/2," Bell said. "But the assumption is that if they make it to the title game, they will have beaten Oklahoma, which would be enough to knock it down to 3."
The Buckeyes against Missouri or West Virginia, neither a traditional college football name brand, would be an intriguing "old school versus new school" matchup, said Bell, an Ohio State graduate.
"I think the story is the use of the spread offense and how it evens out the recruiting advantages that traditional programs like Ohio State have," Bell (online at pregame.com) said.
A good example of the power of the spread offense against an old-style game plan came in September when Oregon beat Michigan 39-7 as an 8-point underdog, Bell said. Another came in last year's BCS title game, when Florida beat Ohio State 41-14 as a 7-point underdog.
"That certainly encourages the thought process that teams like Michigan or Ohio State can have a lot of trouble with faster, more spread-out offenses," Bell said.
Missouri was the biggest long shot of the three remaining leading contenders for the BCS title, having opened at odds of 100-1 to win the championship at most Las Vegas sports books, including Planet Hollywood and the Stratosphere.
West Virginia was the second choice on the board behind preseason favorite USC at many sports books at odds of 7-1 to win the title. Ohio State opened at 30-1.
Oddly enough, if LSU sneaks into the BCS title game - an outside possibility if West Virginia and Missouri lose Saturday - it would be favored against any other team, thanks largely to a home-field advantage at the Superdome, according to Bell's analysis.
lasvegassun.com
Betting the ACC and Big 12 title game rematches
Covers.com
College football programs number in the hundreds while the regular season schedule generally allows a team only 12 games.
So there’s no reason for a college program to tangle with another more than once a season. No reason, that is, except to decide a winner in football’s divided conferences.
Three of Saturday’s East-West title games are rematches from earlier this year. I’ll look at the ACC and Big 12 title games, the pair being played at neutral-site stadiums.
Bettors likely saw the earlier games between the teams involved. They noted which strengths trumped which weaknesses and which matchups were dead-heats. Unfortunately, so did oddsmakers.
“To me it still comes back to value,” Covers Expert Scott Rickenbach says of playing the conference title rematches.
He suggests examining the line to see if too much weight has been given to the earlier meeting or the teams’ last handful of clashes. Sometimes, Rickenbach notes, bettors can lose sight of a team’s current level of play if they attach too much credit to the earlier game.
Strengths and weaknesses can change as a season progresses. If you use the teams’ earlier game as a guide, make sure to account for personnel and schematic changes that have taken place in recent weeks.
Also make sure to factor in the non-partisan setting.
(A neutral-site venue) could be an advantage if a coach has performed better in such instances or if a team has upperclassmen who have performed well in big games at neutral sites,” says Rickenbach.
In the ACC, both the Hokies and Eagles are laden with seniors at key positions on both sides of the ball. BC has won seven straight bowl games, however, the longest streak in the country.
The neutral-site venue might be a wash in the Big 12 game. The Tigers beat Illinois and Kansas in neutral stadiums to bookend its season so far, while Oklahoma racked up big neutral-site wins over Texas this season and in the conference title game a year ago.
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Boston College Eagles
1 p.m. ET at Jacksonville, Fla.
Earlier result: Matt Ryan threw a pair of late touchdowns for a 14-10 Eagles win on Oct. 25. Boston College covered the spread as 3-point underdogs at Lane Stadium.
Heavy rain in the first half and an aggressive Hokies defense kept BC off the scoreboard for the first 57:49. Ryan’s completion percentage – under 50 percent for the game – was notably higher in the dry fourth quarter.
What’s happened since: Virginia Tech has been the better team, plain and simple.
The Hokies’ dual-quarterback experiment is working wonders for the offense. VT is 4-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) since the home loss to the Eagles. It helps that freshman QB Tyrod Taylor and LB Vince Hall have returned to health.
Boston College has since gone 1-3 ATS, losing two games SU as a favorite. The Eagles, however, won their sole game in the underdog role since the upset at Blacksburg.
What to expect on Saturday: Better weather than the teams experienced in Blacksburg. Saturday’s forecast in Jacksonville calls for 72 degrees, with neither wind nor rain. That’s good news for the passing game. Note that lately the Hokies have put up numbers through the air to rival those of the Eagles.
BC head coach Jeff Jagodzinski admits that the Sean Glennon / Taylor rotation at quarterback could keep the Eagles on their toes. Defending the pass becomes an even bigger issue due to the potential absence of DeJuan Tribble. The shutdown cornerback wants to play but BC’s medical staff isn’t sure it will happen.
The Hokies don’t have a reputation as a passing team, but they’ve managed 244.5 passing yards per game with only two interceptions in their last four games, all against strong defenses.
Virginia Tech won’t alter its defensive game plan much from last time it met the Eagles. The Hokies shut down BC’s running game and consistently pressured Ryan in the pocket. They left it up to the Heisman Trophy candidate to beat them and he did just that.
The Hokies will attack with the same vigor on Saturday and hope for better execution in the fourth quarter.
What to read into Saturday’s line: BC won the earlier meeting at Lane Stadium but is an underdog at a neutral site. Are oddsmakers counting on the revenge factor that much?
“I believe this line is being impacted mostly by how these teams have changed as the season has gone on,” Rickenbach suggests. “BC was hot early while V-Tech lost the respect of a lot of bettors when they got rolled by LSU.
“I feel V-Tech's offense has improved a lot since early this season. I’m not saying (the Hokies are) the play here but their improved play plus revenge at least makes them a little more palatable as a fave.”
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Missouri Tigers
8 p.m. ET at San Antonio, Tex.
Earlier result: Oklahoma won 41-31 at home, but Chase Daniel’s touchdown toss to Martin Rucker with 12 seconds left gave Tigers backers a backdoor cover as 13½-point road underdogs.
Missouri took the lead late in the third quarter, but the Sooners started moving the ball on the ground and returned a botched Mizzou snap for a touchdown in an anticlimactic fourth quarter in Norman.
What’s happened since: The Sooners went 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS, with their loss at Texas Tech removing them from the national title game equation. Quarterback Sam Bradford sat out the bulk of the loss with a concussion, but proved last week against Oklahoma State that he’s just fine.
Missouri has gone 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS. The Tigers beat five lesser Big 12 opponents by double-digit margins, favored in each game, before handling Kansas in last week’s Border War as a slight underdog.
What to expect on Saturday: Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops suggested this week that both the Sooners and Tigers would tinker with their respective game plans from Oct. 13.
Oklahoma’s running game didn’t do much in the earlier meeting until the game’s late stretches. The Sooners will be without DeMarco Ryan on Saturday, but Allen Patrick and Chris Brown excelled at running the ball against the Cowboys last weekend.
Stoops’ ideal game would feature the Sooners’ O-line carrying its weight in the trenches early, leaving Malcolm Kelly, Juaquin Iglesias and Jermaine Gresham in man-on-man situations later in the game.
Missouri head coach Gary Pinkel also wants to assert more of a ground presence than in October. Tailback Tony Temple will suit up on Saturday after missing the earlier contest in Norman.
The run wasn’t a big part of the plan, however, when Texas Tech upset Oklahoma a few weeks ago. The Sooners miss defensive end Auston English and their pass rush has diminished in recent weeks. Missouri quarterback Chase Daniel has as many targets as Red Raiders Graham Harrell does. Daniel has the accuracy to lead an upset like Harrell did as well.
What to read into Saturday’s line: Missouri is No. 1 or 2 in every national poll, yet the Tigers are neutral-site underdogs. The line screams out that Oklahoma is a public favorite, doesn’t it?
“I think Oklahoma has raised some eyebrows with some powerful late-season performances and I feel that has had the biggest impact on the line,” Rickenback notes.
“While public money will be significant in this game, it's the wise guys that the oddsmakers are most concerned with when setting these numbers. They aren't too worried about the polls.”
College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet
Covers.com
Virginia Tech vs. Boston College
Why Hokies cover: Virginia Tech has won and covered in four straight games and six of its last seven. The Hokies allow the second-fewest points per game in the nation (15.4) and the fourth-fewest yards (285.3).
Why Eagles cover: Boston College is averaging over 100 yards more per game than the Hokies. Earlier this season, the Eagles recorded a 14-10 come-from-behind win at Virginia Tech. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight against the Hokies.
Total (46½): The over is 4-1 in the Hokies’ last five games as a favorite.
Tennessee vs. Louisiana State
Why Volunteers cover: Tennessee has covered in four of its last five games. Quarterback Erik Ainge threw for a career-high 397 yards and a school-record seven TDs in last week’s 52-50 win over Kentucky.
Why Tigers cover: LSU covered in two of its last three meetings with Tennessee. The Tigers rank third in the nation in total defense (280.1 yards per game), while their offense is scoring 40.2 points per contest behind QB Matt Flynn.
Total (60½): The over is 7-0 in the Tigers’ last seven games overall.
Oregon State at Oregon
Why Beavers cover: Oregon will be without star quarterback Dennis Dixon, who suffered a season-ending injury in the loss to Arizona. Backup Brady Leaf is injured too and the Ducks will likely have to go with a fourth or fifth-string quarterback. The Beavers have covered in five of their last six games.
Why Ducks cover: Oregon is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games overall. Has covered the spread in three of its last four against Oregon State. The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these teams.
Total (44): The over is 5-0 in the last five games between Oregon and Oregon State.
UCLA at Southern California
Why Bruins cover: UCLA has covered the spread in two of its last three games against USC and in two straight games overall. Quarterback Ben Olsen, who has 1,040 yards and seven TDs this season, returned from injury in last week’s win over Oregon.
Why Trojans cover: USC is sixth in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 16.7 points per game. The Bruins, meanwhile, are second-last in the Pac-10 in scoring (24.4) and scored just one touchdown last week.
Total (46½): The under is 8-1 in the Trojans’ last nine games overall.
Brigham Young at San Diego State
Why Cougars cover: Brigham Young has won 16 straight conference games, including five of its last six against San Diego State. It also covered the spread in five of those six games.
Why Aztecs cover: San Diego State has covered in four of its last five. The last time the Cougars traveled to San Diego (2005), the Aztecs recorded an impressive 31-10 home win to cover a 3-point spread.
Total (55½): The over is 4-0 in the Aztecs last five conference games and last five overall.
Pittsburgh at West Virginia
Why Panthers cover: Freshman running back LeSean McCoy ran for three TDs last week and is one short of the single-season record for a freshman. The Panthers have covered the spread in their last two road games.
Why Mountaineers cover: Quarterback Pat White had one of the best games of his career against the Panthers last season, running for 220 yards and two touchdowns and passing for 204 yards and another two scores. The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five against Pittsburgh.
Total (58½): The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams in Virginia.
Oklahoma vs. Missouri
Why Sooners cover: Oklahoma recorded a 41-31 win over Missouri on Oct. 13, the Tigers’ only loss of the season. Sooners quarterback Sam Bradford has thrown for an NCAA freshman-record 32 touchdowns this season.
Why Tigers cover: Missouri quarterback Chase Daniel, a serious contender for the Heisman Trophy, has thrown for a career-best 3,951 yards and 33 touchdowns. The Tigers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Total (67): The under is 13-3-1 in Oklahoma’s last 17 conference games.
Arizona at Arizona State
Why Wildcats cover: Arizona has won three in a row and covered the spread each time. QB Willie Tuitama threw for 1,117 yards and 10 TDs during this streak.
Why Sun Devils cover: Arizona State is second in the conference with 33.3 points per game. QB Rudy Carpenter is third in the Pac-10 in yards (2,768) and touchdowns (21). The Sun Devils are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a losing record.
Total (57½): The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams.
Washington at Hawaii
Why Huskies cover: Starting quarterback Jake Locker returned from injury to throw 224 yards and a touchdown last week. Locker has thrown for 1,920 yards and 14 touchdowns this season.
Why Warriors cover: Hawaii is the only unbeaten team left in the Football Bowl Subdivision. The Warriors rank third in the nation in total offense (528.5 yards per game) and are outscoring opponents by an average of 23.4 points.
Total (74): The under is 5-1 in Hawaii’s last six home games.
MAC Championship Preview
VegasInsider.com
Do you like to bet on offense or defense?
Points or Punts?
Can a good defense slow down a great offense?
Does a horrendous defense make an inconsistent attack look good?
Gamblers will need to ask themselves those questions come Saturday morning when Central Michigan (7-5 SU, 6-4 ATS) meets Miami, Oh (6-6 SU, 6-5 ATS) in the Mid-American Conference Championship from Ford Field in Detroit, MI.
On paper, this game is a classic battle of a high-octane offense versus a stout defense. The Chippewas closed the MAC regular season with a 6-1 ledger, averaging a conference-best 43 points per game amongst the 13 schools. Meanwhile, the RedHawks have surrendered a league-low 24.8 PPG.
This championship marks the second trip in a row to Ford Field for Central Michigan after watching the school blast Ohio 31-10 last year as a three-point favorite.
Oddsmakers are leaning towards a repeat for CMU, listing the team as a 3 ½-point favorite in the title game. The total stands at 63 ½, which makes you believe that points will be scored on the indoor track.
VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Alf Musketa believes that CMU is the class of the MAC and they haven’t even played a complete game yet.
Musketa said, “One of these days Central Michigan is going to outscore its opponent by 30 points if the defense shows up. Everybody thinks Miami’s defense is great but they tend to fade late as we all saw again last week in a 38-29 loss to Ohio.”
CMU does own four of its seven wins by double-digits but none have ever been close to the 30-point plateau that Alf mentioned. Actually, the Chips last three games have all been decided by exactly three points. Last week, CMU rallied past Akron 35-32 as a 2 ½-point road favorite which clinched the West Division and an automatic postseason bowl for the school as well.
Most of the credit for last week’s win and perhaps the other six goes to quarterback Dan LeFevour. Only a sophomore, LeFevour led the team in passing (3,175 yards, 22 TDs) and rushing (838 yards, 15 TDs) en route to the MAC Offensive Player of the Year.
LeFevour has been helped on the outside with a pair of dangerous receivers in Bryan Anderson (969 yards, 78 catches) and Antonio Brown (92 receptions, 5 TDs).
The MAC’s best defense will counter with linebacker Clayton Mullins and a sound defensive unit. CMU is known to use the pass to set up the run with LeFevour out of the spread-attack offense, but don’t be surprised to see a large dose of runs first. Especially since the RedHawks have given up 160 YPG on the ground, which is definitely their weak point on this side of the ball.
While the Chips have averaged 30-plus points this year, the RedHawks have only eclipsed that barrier just three times while averaging a mediocre 20 PPG on the season. All that could very well change on Saturday against a CMU defense that hasn’t been able to stop anybody, giving up 38 PPG and 462 YPG.
CMU has only held one opponent under 20 points this year and after giving up 48 to Eastern Michigan and 32 to Akron, you can definitely see why Miami’s confidence could be brewing. The RedHawks counter with a sophomore quarterback as well, but Daniel Raudabaugh (2,177 yards, 11 TDs, 10 Ints) shouldn’t be mentioned in the same sentence with LeFevour.
To Raudabaugh’s defense, he’s been dealt with a ground game that has been decimated with injuries all year. The rushing attack is averaging 3.9 yards per carry and is playing with its third-string back.
Musketa added, “Miami needs the game to have a shot at bowling this year. That pressure plus the MAC Title at stake, plus playing in front of a Michigan crowd that favors their opponent, equals a good spot for Central Michigan.”
Neither team has been a serious cash machine for gamblers outside of its confines, but CMU (4-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) has performed better on the road than Miami (2-5 SU, 4-3 ATS). In their last meeting, Central Michigan shocked Miami 38-37 as a 23 ½-point road underdog in 2005.
A couple weeks back, I wrote a column featuring the large dose of ‘over’ winners in the MAC this year. The piece focused largely on how bad defenses make average offenses look good. Only three of the 13 schools watched the ‘under’ prevail more than the ‘over’, with Miami being one of them. The ‘under’ went 7-5 for the RedHawks, while the ‘over’ prevailed to a 9-2 record.
Last year, the MAC Championship registered 41 points on the scoreboard which was a far drop off from recent history. The five previous MAC title games saw combined scores of 77, 94, 76, 62 and 61 points lit up.
The RedHawks are 1-1 both SU and ATS in MAC title games, but were favored in both those contests. That could be a good thing, considering underdogs have notched a 6-4 (60%) ledger against the spread in the MAC Championship History.
Army (3-8, 4-5-1 ATS) vs. Navy (7-4, 3-7 ATS)
at Baltimore
Navy tries for its sixth consecutive victory over Army as the latest chapter in this storied patriotic rivalry is written at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore.
Navy has recorded five-straight double-digit victories over the Cadets, with last year’s meeting being the most competitive during this stretch, as the Midshipmen prevailed 26-14. However, Army covered as a 19-point underdog, snapping an 0-4 ATS drought in this rivalry. Still, the favorite has cashed in seven of the last 10 clashes.
The Midshipmen come into this contest having won three in a row (1-2 ATS), most recently topping Northern Illinois 35-24 on Nov. 17, but failing to cover as a 16½-point home favorite. Paul Johnson’s team is 1-5 ATS as a favorite this year, including 0-4 ATS as a double-digit chalk.
The Black Knights have hardly been competitive in dropping five straight games, with the losses coming by margins of 21, 24, 20, 35 and 10 points. The latter was a 49-39 home setback to Tulsa on Nov. 17, but Army did cash as a 15½-point home underdog, halting an 0-4-1 ATS slide.
Navy has a sizeable edge on offense, producing 40 points and 440 total yards per game, including an NCAA-best 339 rushing yards per game. Army nets just 18.2 points and 281 total yards, including 86.3 rushing ypg.
Neither team plays much defense. Navy gives up 39.5 points and 458.3 yards per game (179.3 rushing ypg), while the Black Knights surrender 29.6 points and 435.3 yards per contest (228.6 rushing ypg).
The over is 4-1 in Navy’s last five lined games. The Middies and their opponents have combined for at least 51 points in 10 straight games, with four of the last six featuring at least 90 combined points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NAVY and OVER
UCLA (6-5, 7-4 ATS) at (8) USC (9-2, 6-5 ATS)
The annual battle for Southern California bragging rights is set for the L.A. Coliseum, where USC is looking to wrap up the Pac-10 title and avenge last year’s devastating and stunning loss to hated UCLA.
The Trojans played one of their best games of the season on Thanksgiving Night in the desert, crushing then-No. 7 Arizona State 44-24 as a three-point road favorite. USC finished with a 508-259 edge in total offense, with the defense recording six sacks and holding the Sun Devils to 16 net rushing yards.
UCLA last week snapped a three-game SU losing skid and dealt ninth-ranked Oregon its first shutout loss since 1985, prevailing 16-0 as a two-point home underdog. The Bruins prodcued just 216 total yards of offense, including 64 passing yards, but the defense shined, limiting the Ducks to 146 total yards, including 41 on the ground.
Needing a win to secure a berth in the BCS title game, USC last year went to Pasadena and lost 13-9 to the Bruins as a 10½-point road favorite. With the upset, UCLA snapped a seven-game losing streak (1-6 ATS) to the Trojans.
USC will win the Pac-10 and a berth in the Rose Bowl with a victory today, while UCLA can still claim the conference crown if it upsets the Trojans and Arizona State loses to Arizona today.
The Trojans have won 37 of their last 38 home games, with the only blemish being this year’s historic 24-23 loss to Stanford as a 41-point favorite. Against the number, USC is on a 26-11 run at the Coliseum.
UCLA is 1-3 SU and ATS on the road this year, with the winner covering the spread in all four contests. On the flip side, the Bruins are on positive ATS runs of 11-5 overall, 21-7 against winning teams, and 10-2 in conference.
USC had an eight-game “under” streak halted when last week’s game at Arizona State easily hurdled the total. Still, the under is 19-7 in the Trojans’ last 26 Pac-10 games and 14-3 in their last 17 on grass. Also, the under is 5-1 in UCLA’s last six.
ATS ADVANTAGE: USC and UNDER
Oregon State (7-4, 6-4 ATS) at (18) Oregon (8-3 SU and ATS)
Two archrivals headed in opposite directions clash in Eugene, Ore., where the slumping and ailing Ducks host surging Oregon State in the 111th edition of the Civil War.
Oregon was on the precipice of the national championship game two weeks ago, but then went on the road and suffered a 34-24 setback at Arizona as an 11-point road favorite, losing star quarterback Dennis Dixon to a season-ending knee injury in the process. The Ducks followed that defeat in Arizona with last week’s 16-0 loss to UCLA, the program’s first shutout loss in 22 years.
The Beavers improved to 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games with a 52-17 rout of Washington State as a three-point road underdog back on Nov. 17. During this six-game stretch, Oregon State has averaged 33.2 points per game in its five wins.
The home team has won the Civil War each of the last 10 years, going 8-2 ATS. Last year, Oregon State got a field goal with just over a minute to play, then blocked Oregon’s game-winning attempt to secure a 30-28 win, though the Ducks covered as a 3½-point road underdog.
Prior to last week’s shutout loss at UCLA, Oregon had scored at least 24 points in every game, including topping 50 points four times.
The over is 5-0 in the last five meetings. However, Oregon has stayed under the total in six of its last seven games, including the past four in a row. The under is also 8-3 in the Beavers’ last 11 road games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Pitt at (2) West Virginia
There’s a lot on the line in the 100th edition of the Backyard Brawl, as West Virginia can clinch a spot in the BCS Championship Game if it can knock off Pitt for the fifth time in the last six seasons.
The Mountaineers are back in the national title hunt thanks to a six-game winning streak and a slew of upset losses suffered by other top-tier teams. Last week, West Virginia rolled up 624 yards of total offense and the defense forced three turnovers in a 66-21 rout of then-No. 21 UConn, wrapping up the Big East championship. Rich Rodriguez’s team easily covered as a 20½-point home favorite, snapping a 2-4 ATS slump (0-2 ATS slump at home).
Pitt comes into this showdown having dropped seven of its last nine games, including last Saturday’s 48-37 setback to South Florida as a nine-point home underdog. Prior to the 11-point loss to the Bulls, the Panthers had played five straight games decided by seven points or less.
West Virginia has scored 45 points against Pitt the last two years, winning 45-27 as a 10-point road chalk last year and 45-13 as a 15-point favorite in Morgantown back in 2005. The Mountaineers are on a 4-1 SU and ATS run in the Backyard Brawl, and the straight-up winner has covered the spread in each of the past 10 meetings.
The Mountaineers are 5-0 at home (3-2 ATS), winning by an average of 31 points per game (50-19). They’ve scored at least 38 points in all five contests.
Pitt is 0-4 on the road, but 3-1 ATS. Three of the four losses were by four points or fewer. Dave Wannstedt’s squad is 4-2 ATS as an underdog this year, including 3-0 ATS as a double-digit pup.
The Panthers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Big East games.
West Virginia, which has outgained every opponent this year, is 5-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite in 2007.
The under is 6-3 in West Virginia’s last nine games and 4-1 in Pitt’s last five. However, the last two Backyard Brawls have eclipsed the posted total, and the over is 19-7 in West Virginia’s last 26 home games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WEST VIRGINIA
Arizona (5-6, 5-5 ATS) at (13) Arizona State (9-2, 6-5 ATS)
Arizona State needs a victory to keep its faint Pac-10 title hopes alive when it battles archrival Arizona in the 108th meeting for the Territorial Cup.
The Sun Devils got demolished on Thanksgiving Night at home, falling 44-24 to USC as a three-point home underdog. Since starting the season 7-0, Dennis Erickson’s team has lost two of its last three (0-3 ATS), with the only win being a 24-20 victory at UCLA as a seven-point chalk. Still, ASU can steal the Pac-10 title with a win today and a USC loss to UCLA.
Arizona has been idle since its stunning 34-24 victory over Oregon as an 11-point underdog back on Nov. 15. The Wildcats, who beat the Ducks despite getting outgained 463-322, have won three in a row, going 3-0 ATS.
Arizona State has taken four of the last five meetings in this rivalry (3-2 ATS). Last year, the Sun Devils scored 21 first-quarter points en route to a 28-14 win over the Wildcats, cashing as a three-point road underdog. ASU finished with 429 total yards (215 rushing), while allowing just 168 (33 on the ground).
The underdog is on an 8-2 ATS run in this series and the visitor is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 clashes (9-6 SU).
The Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning record, but the Sun Devils are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 versus losing teams.
Despite last week’s ugly effort against USC, Arizona State is still 5-2 ATS at home in 2007.
The under is 5-1 in the last six series meetings that featured a posted total. The under is also 4-2 in Arizona’s last six games (2-1 “under” on the road) and 11-3 in Arizona State’s last 14 contests (8-3 “under” this year).
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and UNDER
Washington (4-8, 5-7 ATS) at (11) Hawaii (11-0, 4-5 ATS)
Hawaii looks to cap a perfect season and secure a BCS Bowl berth when it hosts slumping Washington at Aloha Stadium.
Facing its toughest opponent of the season, the Warriors passed with flying colors on Friday, dominating Boise State 39-27 as a three-point home favorite, clinching the Western Athletic Conference championship. QB Colt Brennan went 40-for-53 for 495 yards with five TDs and two INTs, and Hawaii finished with 574 total yards and limited Boise to a season-low 332 in improving to 20-1 SU in its last 21 games.
While Hawaii is rolling, the Huskies are floundering, as they’ve followed up a 2-0 start to the season by dropping eight of their last 10. On Saturday, Washington lost a back-and-forth 42-35 decision to archrival Washington State in the battle for the Apple Cup.
Hawaii is 15-1 in its last 16 at Aloha Stadium (8-5 ATS in lined games). However, the one loss came in last year’s regular-season finale against a Pac-10 opponent, a 35-32 setback to Oregon State as an 8½-point chalk. Starting with that contest, Hawaii has alternated ATS wins and losses in its last six lined home games.
Since crushing Syracuse in the season opener, the Huskies have gone 1-3 SU and ATS on the road. The winner has cashed in all five of Washington’s road contests.
The Warriors are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight against Pac-10 foes, but they’re 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 against losing teams and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 non-conference contests.
The over is 9-3 in Washington’s 12 games this year, with the last three in a row soaring over the total. However, Hawaii has stayed under the posted price in four straight games, three of which were at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HAWAII
Central Michigan (7-5, 5-4-2 ATS) vs. Miami, Ohio (6-6 SU and ATS),
at Detroit
Central Michigan shoots for its second consecutive Mid-American Conference championship when it battles Miami (Ohio) at Ford Field in Detroit.
The Chippewas closed the regular season on a 6-2 run (4-2-2 ATS), including a 35-32 victory over Akron as a three-point road favorite back on Nov. 23. Central Michigan won the MAC’s West Division with a 6-1 league record, going 4-1-2 ATS.
Last December at Ford Field, Central Michigan topped Ohio 31-10 as a 3½-point favorite to win the MAC title.
Miami dropped three of its last five games, including last week’s 38-29 lost at Ohio as a one-point road favorite, but still won the MAC East with a 5-2 record. The Redhawks covered the spread in their first three conference games, but are 0-4 ATS in the last four.
These teams last met in 2005, with Central Michigan pulling off a huge 38-37 upset win as a 23½-point road underdog. The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings going back to the early 1990s.
The Chippewas are 17-4-3 ATS in their last 24 conference games and 22-7-3 ATS in their last 32 overall. Also, they’ve won nine straight against teams from the MAC East (8-1 ATS), while the Redhawks are just 2-5 in their last seven against the MAC West (3-4 ATS).
The over is on runs of 7-0 for Central Michigan overall and 10-1-1 for Central Michigan away from home. However, the under is 6-3 in Miami’s last nine.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CENTRAL MICHIGAN and OVER
Tulsa (9-3, 4-8 ATS) at Central Florida (9-3, 7-5 ATS)
The third-ever Conference USA Championship game pits two teams riding lengthy winning streaks, as Tulsa battles the Golden Knights at Bright House Networks Stadium, which is Central Florida’s home field.
Central Florida captured the Conference USA East division with a 7-1 league record (5-3 ATS), including six straight wins (4-2 ATS) to close the regular season. On Saturday, the Golden Knights upended UTEP 36-20, but failed to cover as a 21-point home favorite.
The Golden Hurricane held off Rice 48-43 as a 13½-point road favorite on Saturday to claim the West division title with a 6-2 mark, beating Houston in a tiebreaker. Tulsa has won five in a row, but is 2-8 ATS in its last 10, including 2-6 ATS in conference games.
Central Florida’s six-game winning streak began with a 44-23 rout of Tulsa back on Oct. 20, which was also the Golden Hurricane’s last loss. The Knights, who forced seven Tulsa turnovers and finished with a 453-379 edge in total offense, easily covered as a 2½-point home favorite.
These teams met in the inaugural Conference USA title game in 2005, and Tulsa prevailed 44-27 as a three-point road favorite in a game that was also played on UCF’s home field.
The Golden Hurricane have scored 48 points or more in four straight games and they’re averaging 40.7 ppg overall. Meanwhile, UCF is averaging 42.5 ppg during its winning streak, tallying 34 or more in all six games.
The Knights have outgained eight of their last nine opponents, while Tulsa has finished with the yardage advantage in seven of its last nine, the only exceptions being last week against Rice and in the game against UCF.
The over is 3-1 in Tulsa’s last four. However, the under is 11-5 in the Golden Hurricane’s last 16 conference games and 5-1 in UCF’s last six overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CENTRAL FLORIDA
(6) Virginia Tech (10-2, 6-5 ATS) vs. (12) Boston College (10-2, 6-5 ATS),
at Jacksonville, Fla.
A month after pulling out a miraculous victory at Virginia Tech that at the time saved Boston College’s unbeaten season, the Eagles take on the Hokies once again, this time for the ACC Championship at Municipal Stadium in Jacksonville.
Virginia Tech had Boston College on the ropes back on Oct. 25 in Blacksburg, Va., but the Eagles rose from the mat as QB Matt Ryan tossed two touchdown passes in the final 2:11 to turn a 10-0 deficit into a 14-10 victory. Boston College covered as a three-point road underdog, improving to 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with Va-Tech (all as an underdog) and 3-1 SU in the last four.
Since losing to Boston College, Virginia Tech has ripped of four straight double-digit wins, easily going 4-0 ATS while winning by an average of 21 points per game (36-15). Last week, the Hokies topped rival Virginia 33-21 as a 3½-point road chalk to claim the ACC Coastal Division title.
Boston College captured the Atlantic Division crown with a 20-17 upset win over Clemson as a nine-point road underdog on Nov. 17, then followed that with last Saturday’s 28-14 victory over Miami (Fla.), coming up just short as a 14½-piont home chalk.
While Virginia Tech is on a 5-1 ATS run, B.C. is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight, including 1-3 ATS since beating the Hokies.
Virginia Tech has topped the total in five of its last seven, including the last three in a row. However, the under is 4-2 in Boston College’s last six overall and 3-0 in the last three head-to-head meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(14) Tennessee (9-3, 8-4 ATS) vs. (5) LSU (10-2, 5-7), at Atlanta
Two teams coming off multiple-overtime games with different results clash for the SEC title in the Georgia Dome, as LSU takes on Tennessee.
Just days after reclaiming the No. 1 ranking in the national polls, LSU saw its national title hopes go up in flames in a thrilling 50-48 triple-overtime loss to Arkansas as a 13½-point home chalk. The Tigers scored with 57 seconds left in regulation to tie the score at 28, but lost when they failed to convert a two-point conversion in the third overtime.
Tennessee needed to defeat Kentucky last week to win the SEC East and earn a spot in this game, and the Vols got the job done 52-50 in four overtimes, covering as a 2½-point road underdog after blowing a 31-14 second-half lead. Including the overtime sessions, QB Erik Ainge threw seven TD passes, helping the Vols to their fifth straight win (4-1 ATS).
These rivals have alternated wins and losses in their last six meetings, with LSU scoring a 28-24 victory as a 3½-point home favorite in the most recent matchup in 2006. The Tigers are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six clashes, including a 31-20 victory as a seven-point favorite in the 2001 SEC Championship game.
Tennessee is 8-1 SU in its last nine games, scoring 33 points or more in six of the eight wins.
The Tigers are averaging 47 points in their last four games, topping the 40-point mark in all four. However, the once-stout defense has surrendered 24 points or more six times in the last seven weeks.
LSU is on a 2-7 ATS slide, including 1-3 ATS away from home and 1-6 ATS against SEC foes. Conversely, the Vols are 7-2 ATS in their last nine, including 3-0 ATS as an underdog and 2-1 ATS away from Knoxville.
LSU has topped the total in seven straight games, but the under is 4-1 in Tennessee’s last five. The over is 3-1-1 in the last four series meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
(9) Oklahoma (10-2, 6-6 ATS) vs. (1) Missouri (11-1, 9-2 ATS)
at San Antonio, Texas
A spot in the BCS Championship game awaits surprising Missouri, but first the Tigers must avenge their only loss of the season when they battle Oklahoma for the Big 12 championship at the Alamodome.
Missouri clinched the Big 12 North title and ended Kansas’ undefeated season and national championship chances with last week’s 36-28 victory in Kansas City as a 1½-point underdog. The Tigers, who outgained the Jayhawks 514-388, have won six in a row (4-2 ATS) since a 41-31 loss at Oklahoma back on Oct. 13, averaging nearly 44 points per game during the streak.
The Sooners bounced back from a devastating 34-27 loss at Texas Tech and thumped instate rival Oklahoma State 49-17 as a 13½-point home chalk to clinch the Big 12 South and a spot in the conference title game for the fifth time in the last seven years. QB Sam Bradford, who was knocked out of the Texas Tech loss with a concussion on the second play of the game, returned and went 11-for-15 for 150 yards and four TDs.
The Tigers outgained the Sooners 418-384 in the 10-point loss in Norman, Okla., back in October, but still dropped to 1-17 SU in the last 18 meetings, including 0-5 in the last five. Missouri did score late to cover as a 12-point underdog, improving to 3-1 ATS in the last four clashes. Including this year’s result, the underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight in this rivalry.
While this is Missouri’s first appearance in the Big 12 title game, Oklahoma is 4-1 in this contest (3-1-1 ATS, all as a favorite), including last year’s 21-7 victory over Nebraska as a 3½-point favorite.
Missouri has scored at least 31 points in every game this season – the only Division I-A team to do so – with the low mark coming in the loss to Oklahoma. Meanwhile, the Sooners have scored at least 42 points in eight of 11 games. Overall, the Tigers average 43.8 points and 458.4 yards per game (194.8 rushing ypg), while Mizzou puts up 42 points and 507 yards per outing (170 rushing ypg).
Both offenses are piloted by outstanding quarterbacks. Bradford has completed 70.2 percent of his passes for 2,670 yards with 32 TDs and seven INTs, while Heisman Trophy candidate Chase Daniel is connecting on 70.5 percent of his throws for Missouri, accumulating 3,951 yards and 33 TDs against just nine INTs. In the first meeting this season, Bradford went 24-for-34 for 266 yards, two TDs and no INTs, while Daniel was 37 of 47 for 361 yards, one TD and two INTs.
Defensively, Oklahoma yields 18.2 points and 324.6 yards per contest (91.4 rushing ypg), while Missouri surrenders 23.4 points and 380.5 yards (114.7 rushing ypg).
Despite last week’s easy spread-cover against Oklahoma State, the Sooners are still just 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests, all against Big 12 foes, including 0-4 ATS in road/neutral-site games.
Missouri is on ATS runs of 11-2 overall, 8-1 against winning teams, 7-2 in Big 12 contests and 5-0 in neutral-site affairs.
The over is 8-4 for Missouri this year, but the under is 5-2-1 in Oklahoma’s last eight. The under is also 13-3-1 in the Sooners’ last 17 conference contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI
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2007 NCAAF Conference Championship Rematch Analysis
When it comes to the NCAAF Conference Championship game, a lot has been written over the years concerning teams playing each other their second and even third time in a single season.
Some even go so far as saying that rematches always side with the team who lost previously, especially if it's game three after losing the first two. Certainly there is historical information that will either confirm or deny that issue but the more important concern is whether or not it will have any bearing in this week's Championship games. So, as not to ignore history, going back into the archives there have been a total of 28 college football same-season rematches where one team beat the other in the first meeting. In 23 of the 28 rematches, the team who lost the first game either won the rematch outright or played the game a lot closer then the first one! There are three such contests where teams met earlier in the year and it is those games where I focused my analysis.
2007 C-USA Championship -- Central Florida vs Tulsa
Central Florida has had good success at home this season going 4-1 SU & ATS while scoring 32 or more points in every game. But, take note that UCF coach O'Leary is just 7-14-1 ATS when favored when playing an opponent whom they beat SU and an even worse 2-9-1 if line is less than 7 points. It that isn't enough underdogs in conference championship games that allowed more than 30 points in their last game are 8-1 ATS. Might be worth a look at Tulsa in this one.
2007 Big-12 Championship -- Oklahoma vs Missouri
Another rematch where history says it will be close if not an outright Missouri win but before you jump on the Tigers consider that Oklahoma is 11-3 ATS as a favorite of less than 8 points against revenging conference a opponent and 5-0 ATS as a dog or favorite of less than 13 points. On Missouri's side, coach Pinkel is 13-4 ATS versus .800 or greater opposition if his team has won .750 or better. but Oklahoma has won 17 of the last 18 meetings SU in this series.
2007 ACC Championship -- Virginia Tech vs Boston College
History again sides with the first game loser (Virginia Tech) but Boston College is 4-0 SUATS in 2007 against .750 or greater opponents including 3-0 SU ATS as an underdog. Plus BC holds a 6-1 ATS series edge. Is it time to buck history?
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