Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Saturday 12/1/18
Saturday’s games
Louisville is 4-2 vs schedule #88; their last two games both went to OT. Cardinals are experience team #107 that lost both games on neutral floor in Brooklyn, then upset Michigan State at home on Tuesday. Cardinals have been best team in country at getting to foul line. Seton Hall is 4-2 vs schedule #67, after winning Wooden Legacy tourney in California LW. Pirates are experience team #232 that has made only 30.3% of its 3’s so far- they’re forcing turnovers 21.6% of time. Last four years, Big East teams are 22-14 vs spread when playing a Big East opponent.
Home side won five of six Penn State-Maryland Big 14 games; Nittany Lions lost their last three visits to College Park, all by six points. Penn State is 4-2 vs schedule #101; they’re experience team #318 that is forcing turnovers 21.4% of time- three of their last four games were decided by 3 or fewer points. PSU got big man Watkins back in last game; he played 21:00. Maryland is 6-1 (vs schedule #305) after a 76-71 home loss to Virginia Wednesday; Terps are experience team #350 that is #4 in country on offensive boards- their best win is over #98 Marshall.
Gonzaga beat Creighton 91-74 at home LY, after trailing by 7 at half; Bluejays made 12-25 on arc that night. Zags are 7-0 this season with four top 100 wins, beating Illinois/Arizona/Duke in Maui Classic. Gonzaga has injury issues (Tillie/Crandall are out); this is their first true road game this season. Creighton is 6-1 vs schedule #76; Bluejays are experience team #299 that won tourney on Cayman islands- their only loss was 69-60 at home to Ohio State. Bluejays have hit 46.7% of their 3’s so far this season, best %age in country.
Providence won seven of last eight games with Rhode Island, losing 75-68 to URI LY, when the Friars turned ball over 21 times (-10) and made just 10-21 on foul line. Providence is 5-2 vs schedule #187; they’re experience team #283 that starts three freshmen, two juniors. URI is 3-2 vs schedule #282; they’re experience team #294 that has made only 22.3% of its 3’s so far, the 2nd-worst %age in country. Rams are forcing turnovers 23.4% of time; their opponents are shooting 21.3% on arc. So far this year, A-14 teams are 6-1 vs spread when playing Big East foes.
Purdue/Michigan split their last eight meetings; Boilermakers lost four of their last five visits to Ann Arbor. Underdogs covered last four series games. Purdue is 5-2 vs schedule #102; they’re 0-2 vs top 50 teams, losing by 6 to Virginia Tech on a neutral floor, by point at Florida State on Wednesday. Boilers are starting two sophs, two seniors. Michigan is 7-0 vs schedule #157, with three top 100 wins- they beat North Carolina by 17 in last game Wednesday. Wolverines are experience team #250 whose defensive eFG% is #2 in country, at 38.2%.
Nevada is 7-0 vs schedule #194, with road win at Loyola Chi Tuesday and neutral floor wins vs Tulsa/UMass; all seven of their wins are by 10+ points. Wolf Pack is #2 experience team in country- they start five seniors. Nevada has made 38.4% of its 3’s this season; this might be their toughest game between now and March Madness. USC is 5-2 vs schedule #298; Trojans are #160 experience team that is 0-2 vs top 200 teams, losing by 4 at home to Vanderbilt, by 15 to Texas Tech on a neutral floor. USC is making 41.8% of its 3’s this season (#18).
San Diego State is 4-2 vs schedule #184, losing two of three games at Maui Classic; Aztecs are 3-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100- their best win is over #55 Xavier. San Diego State is #224 experience team (#71 in MC) that has made 39.1% of its 3’s- this is their first true road game. Illinois State 5-2 vs schedule #181; Redbirds are #22 experience team that beat BYU 92-89 at home in OT, in last game Wednesday. ISU starts three seniors, two juniors. This season, MVC teams are 6-3 vs spread when playing Mountain West teams.
Indiana won four of its last five games with Northwestern; Wildcats lost their last three visits here, by 32-1-20 points. Northwestern is 6-1 vs schedule #272; Wildcats split two top 100 tilts, losing by 19 to Fresno State, beating Georgia Tech by 6 at home. Wildcats are forcing turnovers 23.6% of time; they’re #70 experience team. Indiana got pummeled 90-69 at Duke Tuesday; Hoosiers are 5-2 vs schedule #236. Hoosiers are experience team #306- they’re 1-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 1 at Arkansas, beating Marquette by 25 at home.
Temple beat St Joe’s last two years by 3-6 points; last four series games were all decided by 6 or fewer points. Owls are 6-1 in Dunphy’s last year as HC; they’re experience team #110 that forces turnovers 24.5% of time. Temple won its first true road game 79-77 at Missouri Tuesday; teams are shooting 40.1% on arc against them this season. St Joe’s lost three of last four games after a 3-0 start; Hawks are 0-2 vs top 100 teams, giving up 87 ppg. St Joe’s is experience team #302 that starts a freshman and three sophomores.
Cincinnati won its last six games since losing opener at home to Ohio State, but their only good win of the six was 71-57 over Ole Miss on neutral floor. Bearcats are experience team #133 who sub a lot and force turnovers 24.9% of time- they play one of 10 slowest tempos in country. UNLV is 4-2 vs schedule #338, all home games; they turned ball over 24-25 times in the two losses, to LMU/Valpo. Rebels are shooting just 27.4% on arc this season. Last four years, Mountain West teams are 6-4 vs spread when playing AAC teams.
Houston is 5-0 vs 2nd-worst schedule in country to this point; their only win over team in the top 280 was by 14 at BYU LW. Cougars are experience team #129 that is playing 3rd-slowest tempo in country; they’ve made 40.3% of their 3’s, are starting three seniors, one junior and not subbing much (sub minutes #279). Oregon is 4-2 (vs schedule #235) after being upset by Texas Southern in last game; Ducks are experience team #266 whose defensive eFG% is #8 in country. Last four years, AAC teams are 13-7 vs spread when playing Pac-12 teams.
Buffalo is 6-0 with an OT win at West Virginia; Bulls are experience team #55 that pounded Milwaukee 96-77 yesterday, making 14-33 on arc— they played eight guys double digit minutes. Bulls are forcing turnovers 21.7% of time, while playing tempo #32. San Francisco is 7-0 vs schedule #333; Dons’ only top 170 was over over 382 Harvard by 4 at home. USF pulled away from SF Austin Friday in 76-58 win- they start two juniors, two seniors. USF’s defensive eFG% is #5 in country. This game is in Belfast, Northern Ireland.
East Tennessee State is 3-2 in its last five games with Wofford; they lost three of last four visits here, winning 75-62 (-3) in last trip here LY. ETSU is 5-2 but lost both its top 100 games, by 6 at Georgia State, by 6 at Creighton. Buccaneers have road wins at Winthrop/Ga Southern; they’re #204 experience team (#344 in MC) that starts three juniors, two seniors. Wofford is 3-2 after winning last game by 20 at South Carolina (vs schedule #27); Terriers don’t get to foul line a lot, but they’ve made 39.2% of their 3’s. These are probably two best teams in Southern Conference.