NCAAF BCS Busters
By Bruce Marshall
Thanks a lot, Virginia Tech!
We’re sure that we’re echoing the sentiments of Boise State backers who cannot be too pleased that the Hokies followed up their thrilling loss to the Broncos with a loss to Colonial Athletic Association, FCS James Madison. But maybe we shouldn’t be terribly surprised. The Dukes are no pushover, and approached last week’s game at Blacksburg as their Super Bowl. Meanwhile, VPI had a very short week of practice after the Monday night game in Landover. Still, the Hokies were not caught completely flat-footed, jumping to a 10-0 lead and seemingly in control with a 16-7 edge in the third period. But JMU QB Drew Dudzik, who had earlier tossed a 77-yard TD pass to Jamal Sullivan, ran for a pair of scores just before and after the end of the 3rd quarter on drives that were aided by Hokie personal foul penalties. Then, Dudzik helped the Dukes run out the last 5:23 on the clock, and a 33 ½ -point underdog from Harrisonburg, up I-81, had its major upset.
Indirectly, Boise could certainly be hurt by the defeat, although it’s hard to gauge how much. The human polls still have a lot of impact on final BCS standings, and voters could use the VPI loss to JMU to correspondingly downgrade the Broncos, who are still ranked third but lost a little ground after the Hokie defeat. Certainly, if VPI continues to slide, what should have been Boise’s biggest win of the season might not prove to be worth as much, but the Hokies could also still rally in the ACC and get back to the BCS themselves. It’s still only mid-September, you know.
It’s worth mentioning, however, that the computer and strength of schedule components of the BCS have been minimized in their influence, and those factors could surely punish Boise for Virginia Tech’s transgressions. But it’s how much the human polls want to downgrade Boise for events out of its control that will have more impact in the final BCS pecking order.
A CHALLENGE FOR BOISE IN THE WAC?
Well, we’ve been through this drill before with Nevada, where the Wolf Pack bludgeons outmanned opposition, but gets its comeuppance when stepping up to face the big boys. And in the recent past, it’s been that classic bully syndrome that has applied to Nevada since HC Chris Ault (who had been in the AD chair) returned to the sidelines for a third tour of duty in 2004. Still, the Pack had never dismembered a Mountain West foe as comprehensively as it did to Colorado State last weekend, bombing the Rams 51-6 in Reno. It was almost a 2009 redux for most of the night, with Nevada moving at will behind QB Colin Kaepernick and finishing with over 600 yards.
WAC scouts are keeping a closer eye on the Wolf Pack than usual, suspecting that Ault’s much-maligned "D" could make strides under new d.c. Andy Buh, over from Stanford. And some believe this could be the best Nevada team of Ault’s third regime, which includes bowl teams the past five seasons. It is not lost on those observers how the Pack has been trading punches with Boise the past three seasons after a succession of blowout losses vs. the Broncos. And Nevada gets Boise in Reno during Thanksgiving week. We’ll get a lot better idea about the Wolf Pack after Friday night’s test vs. Pac-10 Cal.
WHERE ARE THE NAVY TORPEDOS?
It has not been a terribly impressive start for Navy, a chic pick by some to maybe run the table and have a chance to crash the BCS. But the Mids barely avoided an 0-2 start when surviving a dour 13-7 win over FCS Georgia Southern last week. Keep in mind, however, than Navy was facing a team molded in its image, with the Eagles still influenced scheme-wise by their former HC Paul Johnson, who left Georgia Southern for Navy back in 2002. The two squads engaged in a virtual stalemate Saturday afternoon in Annapolis, gaining fewer than 200 yards each.
And we have to wonder when Navy HC Ken Niumatalolo might have a word with QB Ricky "Kobe" Dobbs, who likes to call his number a lot (an awful lot). Opponents are getting wise to the fact that Dobbs (who has 54 carries in two games, more than twice as many as any other Navy back, despite gaining a paltry 2 ypc) likes to keep the ball himself, especially around the goal line. The other Navy backs are all producing much better yards per carry than Dobbs; FB Vince Murray, inhaling ground a 7 yards per pop, has only 23 carries, less than half as many as Dobbs, while slotbacks Gee Gee Greene and Andre Byrd are going at 7.5 ypc and 6.0 ypc, respectively. Maybe Dobbs needs a call from President Barack Obama to remind him that sharing the load might be a good idea; remember, Dobbs has already announced he intends to some day run for Obama’s job.
BCS BUSTER TOP TEN
Following are our latest "BCS Buster" rankings, with straight-up and pointspread records listed, as well as the next opponent.
1-BOISE STATE (1-0, 1-0)...The Broncos had the week off but were nonetheless dealt a kick to the gut by Virginia Tech. Style points are going to be very important for the Broncos to maintain their top spot in the BCS Buster queue; Wyoming, you’ve been forewarned. At Wyoming this Saturday.
2-TCU (2-0, 1-1)... We don’t know if the Frogs were cheering at Virginia Tech’s loss, but we wouldn’t blame them if they did. Even if TCU runs the table again, it will probably need some help to leapfrog Boise (if the Broncos stay unbeaten, that is) in the BCS Buster queue. Next year, however, Broncos-Horned Frogs becomes an annual regular-season feature as a conference game in the Mountain West. Hosts Baylor this Saturday.
3-UTAH (2-0, 1-1)... The Utes were getting tested for a while by UNLV before breaking the game open just before and after halftime. Utah can function just fine with backup QB Terrance Cain, now 8-1 in his career as a starter after filling in for the injured Jordan Wynn (thumb injury) in that 38-10 romp past the Rebels. The play of the day belonged to WR/PR Shaky Smithson, who recalled Oklahoma’s Joe Washington’s epic "slide step" punt return TD vs. Oklahoma State in 1974 with his own 77-yard gem that came not long after he caught a 55-yard TD pass from Cain. At New Mexico this Saturday.
4-HOUSTON (2-0, 1-1)... While all the talk about Houston still centers upon QB Case Keenum, this week it includes conjecture about his status for the upcoming game on Saturday at UCLA after getting his bell rung against UTEP. But shrewd C-USA observers are keeping a close eye on an improved Cougar defense, now being coordinated by Brian Stewart, a former Dallas Cowboys d.c. who has installed a new 3-4 look with the Cougs. We know Houston’s offense is good, but some improvement from the defense makes the Cougs even more intriguing as a potential BCS buster. At UCLA this Saturday.
5-AIR FORCE (2-0, 1-1)... If that was a parting gift for Air Force to BYU last Saturday, it was a doozy, as the Falcs unleashed six years worth of frustration on the Cougs in a 35-14 romp before the Provo bunch goes independent next season. Most impressive was the defense, now under the tutelage of d.c. Matt Wallerstedt, the former LB coach who was promoted when Tim DeRuyter, the pride of St. John Bosco HS in Bellflower, CA, went to Texas A&M in the offseason. Wallerstedt’s veteran defense looked just as good as DeRuyter’s opportunistic platoon of a year ago when putting the clamps on the Cougs, while the Falcon option seems to be humming nicely with QB Tim Jefferson at the controls. At Oklahoma this Saturday.
6-NEVADA (2-0, 1-1)... Let’s see if Nevada is ready to finally clear the BCS-conference hurdle when it hosts Cal on Friday night, one of the biggest non-conference games in memory at Reno. The Pack hasn’t beaten a team from a BCS conference since winning at Washington, 28-17, in 2003. Hosts Cal on Friday.
7-EAST CAROLINA (2-0, 2-0)... One of the real pleasant surprises of the early season, the graduation-depleted Pirates have thus far cast a real blow to the "returning starters" argument by busting out of the gate 2-0, scoring 50 ppg in the process. Boston College transfer Dominique Davis is having no trouble adapting to the control panel of the Pirate spread, and new HC Ruffin McNeill is gaining more fans every week. At Virginia Tech this Saturday
8-NAVY (1-1, 0-2)... We suspect the Mids will get on track soon, having been their own worst enemy vs. Maryland and not knowing how to react when seeing a clone of themselves against Georgia Southern. This week, Sonny Dykes’ still-evolving spread at La Tech should provide ample opportunity for the "old Mids" to resurface. At La Tech this Saturday.
9-BYU (1-1, 1-1)... Maybe the Cougs are going to miss QB Max Hall more than we thought. The 35-14 embarrassment at Air Force is mostly down to new QB Riley Nelson being rendered helpless once the Falcs figured out he wasn’t going to do much damage if he could be contained in the pocket. Even Air Force defenders realized that Nelson wasn’t checking out of faulty play calls as would have Hall. Time for Bronco Mendenhall to get true frosh Jake Heaps some more work? At Florida State this Saturday
10-FRESNO STATE (1-0, 1-0)... Fresno fans don’t even dream about the BCS anymore with Boise dominating the WAC, so Bulldog fans are only guardedly optimistic after the opening win over Cincy. We’ll see how far Pat Hill’s defense has progressed when it gets a tough test vs. Utah State’s dynamic QB Diondre Borel on Saturday night at Logan. At Utah State this Saturday.
Knocking on the door: SMU, Temple, Utah State, Troy.