NCAAF BCS Busters
By Bruce Marshall
What next? Dick Button and Peggy Fleming joining the Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, and Lee Corso on ESPN College Game Day?
Forgive us that bit of speculation, but based upon some of the new terminology in college football, we’re not sure it isn’t appropriate. That’s because the new buzz words in college football are "style points," something usually more associated with figure skating, or perhaps synchronized swimming. But nowadays, "style points" have become part of gridiron lexicon.
The reason? Absent of a true playoff system, teams contending for a spot in the BCS and national title game are compelled to impress the pollsters however possible. Mere wins are not going to be enough for some of the squads, especially those in the "BCS Buster" category. They’re going to have to score wins impressively whenever possible. And if that means running up the scores, so be it.
And therein lies another of the complaints about the current, wholly unsatisfactory BCS system, where teams can be compelled to humiliate opposition as they seek to sway the opinions of the pollsters. Not that this is a recent phenomenon in college football; many noteworthy teams from the past, long before the current BCS system, were also inclined to run up scores in order to curry favor with the voters. After all, it was the pollsters who would almost always decide the champions in those days. And even today, it’s the polls that mostly decide which two teams end up in the BCS title game.
But nowadays, "style points" seem to be more important than ever. Especially with those aforementioned "BCS Busters" who must first get to the top of that queue to have a shot at even entering the big, bad BCS. Getting from there to the national championship game will likely require an even greater reliance upon those style points.
A quick glimpse at last week’s college results confirms how style points are distorting the scorelines. Last Saturday, the three top BCS Busters made sure that they took care of business, convincingly. Boise State jumped on Wyoming from the get-go at Laramie, bolting to a 34-0 lead by halftime en route to a 51-6 romp over a Cowboy team that won a bowl game last December. The Broncos didn’t seem to ease up in the second half, either, en route to outgaining Wyo by a whopping 648-135 while recording 32 first downs to Wyo’s 7. Meanwhile, TCU jumped all over Baylor at Fort Worth, scoring TDs on its first five possessions and rolling to a 45-10 rout over what appeared to be a representative Bears outfit. TCU QB Andy Dalton was still in the game in the 4th Q, throwing a 9-yard TD pass to star WR Jeremy Kerley for the Frogs’ final points. Meanwhile, at Albuquerque, Utah rolled up the score on hapless New Mexico, 56-14, although in the Utes’ case they seemed to be scoring TDs inadvertently in the second half, so bad were the Lobos. Utah scored 3 TDs in a 2:40 span early in the 3rd quarter, with a 35-yard interception return by Matt Martinez and a 73-yard punt return by Shaky "Mr. Excitement" Smithson included in the eruption.
What does this all mean, in a practical sense, for handicappers? Simply, don’t be afraid to lay a lot of lumber if you have to with some of these potential BCS busters, many of whom have recorded stellar big chalk marks in recent years. Boise is now 12-4-1 its last 17 when laying 20 points or more. TCU is 20-5 laying double digits since 2006. Utah is 13-6 as double-digit chalk since 2007. BCS Buster wannabe (and maybe this is the year) Nevada is 15-5 as double-digit chalk since 2004.
Laying big points with a serious BCS Buster? No different than expecting a perfect triple lutz from a Gold Medal winner, as Dick Button or Scott Hamilton might say.
HOUSTON...YOU’VE GOT A PROBLEM
For all of the fun the likes of Boise, TCU, and Utah seemed to have last weekend, it was just the opposite for the Houston Cougars, who rolled into Pasadena for an intersectional battle vs. a reeling UCLA squad, confident that their undefeated start to the season would reach three games. Instead, Houston was dealt a triple dose of bad at the Rose Bowl by the aroused Bruins, who physically took apart the Cougs, 31-13, and maimed Houston’s QBs in the process.
The decorated sr. signal-caller Case Keenum, a peripheral Heisman threat and on course to challenge the NCAA career passing yardage record currently held by Hawaii’s Timmy Chang, is instead lost for the season after tearing his ACL while trying to make a tackle following an interception in the second quarter. If that wasn’t bad enough, backup Cotton Turner was also KO’d later in the game with a broken collarbone. Both are done for the season. True freshman Terrance Broadway, a highly-touted Baton Rouge product (and the 5th rated dual-purpose threat recruit in the nation last year), will get the starting call for Saturday’s game against Tulane. Word around C-USA is that Broadway, who led UH to ten points late in the second half at the Rose Bowl, could be a future star for the Cougs, although it will not be realistic to expect him to produce Keenum-like numbers off the bat. Another true frosh, David Piland, from Metroplex football factory Southlake Carroll, could also compete for snaps, although Broadway is getting the initial nod from HC Kevin Sumlin.
BCS BUSTER TOP TEN
Following are our latest "BCS Buster" rankings, with straight-up and pointspread records listed, as well as the next opponent.
1-BOISE STATE (2-0, 2-0)...The "beat" (literally) goes on for the Broncos, who realize that putting a hurting on visiting Oregon State on Saturday night will be an important "style points" test that could come in handy when the BCS tallies up all of its votes in early December. The Beavers are the last "Big Six" conference foe to face the Broncos, at least until a bowl game. And note that OSU has been creamed, 53-34 (2004) and 42-14 (2006), in its last two games on the blue carpet. Mike Riley, you’ve been forewarned. Hosts Oregon State this Saturday
2-TCU (3-0, 2-1)... It’s ironic that Oregon State could have a lot to do with the BCS Buster equation, because if Boise has more trouble vs. the Beavers than TCU experienced vs. OSU back on opening day (a 30-21 Frogs win at Jerry World), that might be what voters need to justify leaping the Frogs past the Broncos in the BCS queue. If TCU is still behind Boise in the polls after this week, however, the Frogs are probably going to need someone from the WAC (which top to bottom looks a bit stronger than the Mountain West this season) to put a real scare into Boise to climb over the Broncos in the polls. Assuming both remain unbeaten, that is. At SMU this Friday
3-UTAH (3-0, 2-1)... Lurking just off the pace remain the Utes, who get what looks to be another breather this week (San Jose State) after having UNLV and New Mexico served to them on a platter the past two Saturdays. HC Kyle Whittingham has seen no reason to rush QB Jordan Wynn, recuperating from a right thumb injury, back into the lineup with the capable Terrance Cain (now 9-1 as a starter) filling in admirably. Meanwhile, the colorful Shaky Smithson is emerging as one of the nation’s best homerun threats, with another punt return TD and long TD reception last week vs. the Lobos. Looking ahead, the Utes’ season likely gets defined by a three-game stretch beginning October 30 (at Air Force, TCU, at Notre Dame). Run that gauntlet, and the Utes are very much in the BCS picture. Hosts San Jose State this Saturday
4-NEVADA (3-0, 2-1)... That was a big "hump" win for the Wolf Pack over Cal last Friday, especially with Nevada having lost eight in a row vs. BCS-conference opposition since a win over Northwestern at Reno back in 2006. But it was the manner of victory that really opened some eyes, with Colin Kaepernick and Chris Ault’s Pistol complemented by a big-play defense that recorded the play of the night when DB Marlon Johnson took back a Kevin Riley pass 65 yards for a score that put the Pack ahead 31-21 and restored momentum that seemed to have swing to Cal. The 52-31 final means the Pack maintains scoring a robust 51 ppg, and sets up a collision course with Boise on Thanksgiving weekend should Nevada knock off BYU this week. At BYU this Saturday
5-AIR FORCE (2-1, 2-1)... The Falcs did nothing to hurt their reputation by pushing Oklahoma to the limit last Saturday at Norman. The Sooners were forced to hold on for dear life in the final minutes of a 27-24 win that saw the Force outgain OU 458-367 and gain a healthy 5.6 ypc while recording 351 rushing yards, the most ever yielded by a Bob Stoops-coached Sooner team. Although the Sooners seemed happy to escape with their lives, Falcon HC Troy Calhoun was not into moral victories. "Our guys," said, the coach, "are not interested in close." At Wyoming this Saturday
6-FRESNO STATE (2-0, 2-0)... The Bulldogs appear back to their ornery selves, following up their opening win over Cincinnati with last week’s 41-24 win at Utah State, a chic upset pick by many heading into that game at Logan. Which, to be fair, was a bit closer than the final score, which was recorded after Fresno outscored the Utags 17-0 in the 4th Q. Still, HC Pat Hill has to be pleased with a "D" that kept livewire USU QB Diondre Borel in check, as well as soph RB A.J. Ellis, who cruised for 165 YR and 3 TDs in the win. At Ole Miss this Saturday
7-NAVY (2-1, 1-2)... Did QB Ricky Dobbs get a call from President Obama, advising him to hand off the ball a bit more, and maybe try a pass now and then? Or maybe it was HC Ken Niumatalolo who got through to Dobbs, who despite still leading Navy in carries (19) at La Tech, finally made better use of the other elements in the Mid option. Such as FB Vince Murray, who carried 14 times and softened up the Bulldog middle for Dobbs and the slippery Geee Greene (87 YR on just 6 carries) to burn La Tech on the flanks, while setting up the play-action element of the Mids’ underused aerial game. Dobbs also passed for a career-best 219 yards in the Mids’ 37-23 win at Ruston, although it was the ground element of the option that wore down the Bulldogs in the second half. At Air Force October 2
8-SMU (2-1, 2-1)... Now that Houston is down to a freshman QB, the door could be opening for the Mustangs in C-USA. And this Friday provides a chance for HC June Jones to get the signature win that could put the Mustangs back on the map when hosting Metroplex rival TCU at Ford Stadium. It’s a tall task, but QB Kyle Padron could make things exciting. Hosts TCU this Friday
9-SOUTHERN MISS (2-1, 1-2)... Another C-USA rep that could also benefit from Houston’s misfortune is Southern Miss, which seems to have rebounded quite smartly from its opening loss at South Carolina with a pair of wins, including an impressive 31-16 whipping of Big XII Kansas at Hattiesburg last Friday night. HC Larry Fedora has to be pleased with the progress of QB Austin Davis, almost flawless (19 of 24 passing, plus 61 YR) vs. the Jayahwks, as well as his special teams that recorded a TD on a blocked punt. At La Tech this Saturday
10-TEMPLE (3-0, 2-1)... Is that Rod Blagojevich coaching the Owls? No, but the resemblance to HC Al "Touch of" Golden is a bit uncanny. And there is nothing fraudulent about the Owls coach, who continues to steward one of the more unlikely renaissance stories in the country with the formerly downtrodden Owls, now 3-0 after a landmark win over UConn last week at the Linc. Remember, the Huskies are considered a legit Big East contender and had dominated Temple in recent years. But the Owl defense made the play of the day when stripping UConn RB Jordan Todman, with DE Adrian Robinson scooping up the fumble and rumbling 25 yards to the go-ahead TD with 9 minutes left. At Penn State this Saturday
Knocking on the door: Houston, UCF, Idaho