Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Friday 10/11/19
Friday’s games
Underdogs are 4-2-1 ATS in last seven Virginia-Miami games; Cavaliers lost their last three trips to South Beach, by 16-6-19 points. Virginia is 3-1 vs I-A teams but ran ball for total of only 73 yards in last two games- the team that led at halftime lost all four games. Cavaliers lost last game 35-20 at Notre Dame; under Mendenhall, they’re 10-9 ATS on the road. Miami is 1-3 vs I-A clubs, with all four games decided by 7 or fewer points. ‘canes lost 42-35 to Va Tech LW after they trailed 28-0 just before halftime; their only I-A win was 17-12 over Central Michigan.
Colorado State won its last nine games with New Mexico (7-2 ATS); Rams won their last four trips to Albuquerque, by 3-7-24-4 points, but State is 0-5 vs I-A teams this year, allowing an average of 41.2 ppg; Rams are 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games as road favorites. State was held to 296/235 TY in their last two games. Lobos lost three of four I-A games; they’ve given up 464+ TY in every game this year, even the 39-31 win over a I-AA team. New Mexico is 6-4 ATS in its last ten games as a home underdog.
Colorado lost six of last seven games with Oregon; teams haven’t met since ’16. Favorites are 5-1 ATS in last six series games, but Buffs (+10.5) won their last visit to Eugene, 41-38. Colorado is 3-2 despite allowing 30+ points in all five games; they allowed 444+ TY in all five games. Buffs are 11-7-1 ATS in their last 19 games as road underdogs. Oregon won its last four games after a 27-21 loss to Auburn, allowing 7 or fewer points in all four games; Ducks are 10-14 ATS in their last 24 games as a home favorite. Pac-12 home favorites are 3-7 ATS so far this season.
VIRGINIA at MIAMI-FLA...Cavs have now dropped 4 straight vs. line. Mendenhall has covered last two vs. Canes and Hoos 5-2 vs. spread last 7 away from Charlottesville. Miami 2-7 vs points last 9 ACC games, and 1-7 vs. spread last eight as host vs. FBS-level foes.
Virginia, based on team trends.
COLORADO STATE at NEW MEXICO...Bob Davie is 0-7 SU (1-6 vs. line) with Lobos against CSU since he arrived in 2012. Lobos 1-9 vs. spread last ten at Albuquerque.
Colorado State, based on series and team trends.
COLORADO at OREGON...Mel Tucker now 2-0 as dog with Buffs, who were just 3-9-1 getting points the past two seasons. Cristobal just 7-12 vs. spread with Ducks (counts LV Bowl 2017) since taking over (6-7 as chalk). Webfoots only 4-6 vs. spread at Eugene for Cristobal.
Colorado, based on team trends.
Virginia at Miami, Fl.
Matt Blunt
No. 20 Virginia at Miami, Fl.
Venue/Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, Fl.
Time/TV: Friday, Oct. 11 (ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Line: Miami -2, Total 44
Recent Meetings:
2018: Virginia (+7) vs. Miami, Fl. 13, Under 46.5
2017: Miami, Fl. (-19.5) 44 vs. Virginia 28, Over 49
2016: Miami, Fl. (-9.5) 34 at Virginia, Under 54.5
Two ranked teams are in action on Friday night, but it's the one that's out on the road that I'm looking at today.
Virginia – fresh off their first loss of the year two weeks ago to Notre Dame – head down to Miami to take on a Hurricanes team that's seemingly already underperformed relative the lofty goals the Hurricanes and their fanbase put on the team every year. At 2-3 SU, Miami fans probably figured their team's record would look much better at this point of the year, but that's clearly not the case. Sometimes a football team just isn't as good as many expected them to be, for a myriad of reasons, and that's the question many handicappers are asking themselves about the Miami Hurricanes this week.
Miami did open as a small favorite for this game and saw some early support to bump the spread up a touch. But after narrowly escaping with a win against Central Michigan as 30-point favorites two games ago, Miami lost again – after having two weeks to prepare – as big favorites, this time laying 14 points to Virginia Tech.
So, is Miami being the favorite and getting some early support warranted? Or will this Hurricanes team that's already 0-3 ATS as favorites against FBS competition be a money burner again?
CFB Odds: Virginia vs Miami (-2.5); Total set at 44
Now that conference play is in full swing across the country, I know there will be talk of games like this each week where we've got an unranked squad like Miami laying points to a ranked team. Generally speaking, there is a theory that laying the points in those situations turns out better then not, but that's the problem with talking in generalities when dealing with specifics.
The specifics for this game is that Miami is a struggling team with much less rest, and probably getting considered more for the program's historical reputation then what they've shown on the football field thus far. The Hurricanes hung tough with Florida on opening day back in late-August, but since then it's really been nothing but downhill for this team against the number. Having played last Saturday and now turning around to play on a Friday – against a team that had last week off – isn't a brutal scheduling spot, but it's not great either.
The time off for Virginia likely negates any sort of hangover effect the Cavaliers may have after suffering their first loss of the year, and it probably humbled them to a degree. Working that much harder during two weeks of practice is probably not a bad thing for a Virginia team that's still ranked in the polls and looking to remain there. And given what film study has shown them the past two weeks, chances are they'll have an edge mentally as well for this game.
Taking the line and the total together as one suggests that points will be at a premium in this game, and that we probably won't get anyone coming back from anything like an early two-TD deficit. Given that Virginia's defense holds edges in nearly every category other then rush yards allowed per attempt and per game, and Miami has allowed at least 24 points to all three Power 5 programs they've faced this season, I believe you've got to favor Virginia's prospects offensively in this game as well.
Rest-wise things line up on Virginia's side, record-wise things line up Virginia's way, and the Cavaliers hold the edge in the majority of statistical categories on both sides of the ball as well. Add it all up and then throw in Miami's underperforming nature this year, and you get a game where it may not be one of those “wrong team is favored” contests per se, but the favorite sure has a lot working against them to get a W.
With the underdog 13-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings between these two games – including 8-1 ATS the last nine – and a perfect 4-0 ATS when the line has been single digits in that span, give me the Cavaliers in this game on Friday night.
NCAAF
Long Sheet
Friday, October 11
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VIRGINIA (4 - 1) at MIAMI (2 - 3) - 10/11/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-1 straight up against VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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COLORADO ST (1 - 5) at NEW MEXICO (2 - 3) - 10/11/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW MEXICO is 1-1 against the spread versus COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO ST is 2-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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COLORADO (3 - 2) at OREGON (4 - 1) - 10/11/2019, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 39-71 ATS (-39.1 Units) in October games since 1992.
COLORADO is 45-77 ATS (-39.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
NCAAF
Trend Report
Friday, October 11
VIRGINIA @ MIAMI-FL
VIRGINIA
Virginia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Miami-FL
Virginia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
MIAMI-FL
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami-FL's last 6 games when playing at home against Virginia
Miami-FL is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games at home
COLORADO STATE @ NEW MEXICO
COLORADO STATE
Colorado State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Mexico
Colorado State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Mexico
NEW MEXICO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Mexico's last 7 games when playing at home against Colorado State
New Mexico is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games at home
COLORADO @ OREGON
COLORADO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado's last 6 games
Colorado is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
OREGON
Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Oregon is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
NCAAF
Dunkel
Friday, October 11
Virginia @ Miami-FL
Game 109-110
October 11, 2019 @ 8:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Virginia
91.342
Miami-FL
84.634
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Virginia
by 6 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami-FL
by 2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Virginia
(+2); Under
Colorado State @ New Mexico
Game 111-112
October 11, 2019 @ 8:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Colorado State
69.322
New Mexico
68.504
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Colorado State
by 1
70
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado State
by 4
66 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Mexico
(+4); Over
Colorado @ Oregon
Game 113-114
October 11, 2019 @ 10:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Colorado
86.115
Oregon
103.633
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oregon
by 17 1/2
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oregon
by 20 1/2
57 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Colorado
(+20 1/2); Over