Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Friday 10/4/19
Friday’s games
Central Florida is 4-1 this year, scoring 45.8 ppg in four I-A games; their only loss was 35-34 at Pitt. Knights allowed 865 yards in their last two games. UCF is 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite, 1-1 this year. Freshman QB Gabriel (from Hawai’i) is completing 61.7% of his passes, with 14 TD’s, only two INT’s. UCF beat Cincinnati the last three years, by average score of 38-13; Bearcats got crushed at Ohio St, but won their other three games, running for 464 yards in last two games. Cincy is 3-6 ATS in its last nine games as a home underdog.
New Mexico split its first four games but allowed 2,124 yards, including 558 yards (443 PY) to a I-AA team; they scored 14-10 points in losing both road games, falling 17-10 (+7) at Liberty LW. Last five years, Lobos are 8-10-1 ATS as a road underdog. San Jose State won three of last four games with New Mexico; dogs covered three of those four games. San Jose won at Arkansas but lost its other I-A games by 18-17 points; Spartans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite. Nationwide, home favorites are 31-17 ATS in conference games this year.
Tech Trends - Week 6
Bruce Marshall
Friday, Oct. 4
UCF at CINCINNATI...UCF 8-2 as visiting chalk since 2016. Fickell 2-3 as dog since LY. UCF has won and covered last three (well, counting the 2017 game, when UCF was blowing out Bearcats but game ended prematurely because of weather).
UCF, based on team and series trends.
NEW MEXICO at SAN JOSE STATE... SJS on 10-6 spread uptick. Spartans 13-5-1 as chalk since 2014. Lobos no covers last seven since late 2018, 8-20-1 last 29 on board.
San Jose State, based on team trends.
UCF at Cincinnati
Matt Blunt
No. 18 Central Florida at Cincinnati
Venue/Location: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Time/TV: Friday, Oct. 4 (ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Line: UCF -4 ½, Total 60
Recent Meetings:
2018: Central Florida (-6.5) 38 vs. Cincinnati 13, Under 60 ½
2017: Central Florida (-15) 51 at Cincinnati 23, Over 52 ½
2016: Central Florida (-10.5) 24 vs. Cincinnati 3, Under 51 ½
2015: Cincinnati 52 (-26) 52 vs. Central Florida 7, Under 61
The Conference of Champions is taking this Friday night off, as it's the AAC's turn to shine under the bright Friday night lights. The conference is hoping to showcase it's “best” team as the 18th ranked UCF Knights travel north to Cincinnati to try and knock off a 3-1 Bearcats program.
Outside of getting waxed by Ohio State, the Bearcats have looked good, winning by double-digits in all three of their wins, and really who has gone up against the Buckeyes so far in 2019 and not gotten waxed. There is a view that a loss to Pitt, as essentially double-digit road chalk, looks much worse on UCF's resume, but with how the Knights bounced back with a no-nonsense win over Connecticut last weekend, UCF knows they can't afford any more slip-ups.
Can the Bearcats play well enough to help one of those slip-ups happen, or will UCF just be on their way to potentially another long winning streak?
UCF cruised to the 56-21 win over Connecticut last weekend, as a 56-0 lead was established before the Knights called it a day and did so early enough to let Connecticut through the back door for an ATS win. But really -42 was a lofty number to cover after the program's first loss in 27 regular season games, and had UCF decided to play the full 60 minutes, the easy ATS win was there.
A thought like that has to be concerning to the rest of the AAC as league play really begins in earnest, because this UCF team just keeps pushing forward, even after dealing with their first setback in years. What that tells me is that it's going to be tough to ever catch UCF in a flat spot, or a look-ahead spot, at least pregame, the rest of the way. They can flush good and bad efforts just as quickly as one another, and while they probably got caught looking ahead to this primetime showcase in the 4th quarter last week as they watched Connecticut stroll through the back door, that happens here and it won't matter given the spread they've got to cover this week.
Hard to take anything away from Cincinnati's effort this year, although I guess you would have preferred to see a bit more fight and potential production against Ohio State. And while they are currently the only Ohio State opponent that didn't score against the Buckeyes this season, their 42-point deficit in the loss isn't the worst margin of defeat for an Ohio State opponent. Even further had they mustered a safety or FG in that game, they'd have the 2nd smallest margin of defeat by an Ohio State foe at just 39 points. That's how impressive Ohio State has been.
Not as much shame in that loss as it may appear for Cincinnati, and UCF, while good, is still not Ohio State. But the Bearcats defense got absolutely gashed on the ground that day (270 yards, 5.9 average), and UCF's attack is on the ground first. The Knights may not be Ohio State, but they recruit a similar caliber of athlete, and that does not bode well for Cincy's defense either. Sure, holding down Marshall, Miami (Ohio) and UCLA – although UCLA's offense deserves more credit after that Washington State game – to 14 or fewer points is one thing, doing that to the Knights is going to be near impossible. As a program, UCF hasn't scored fewer than 30 points in a single game since their 2016 Bowl loss to Arkansas State (31-13). That's 31 straight games of putting up 30 or more for UCF. Does this Bearcats offense have enough pop to keep up?
I'm not sure that they do, as even Pittsburgh needed a punt return TD, to win the ball control battle by 11+ minutes, and the turnover battle (2-1) to squeak out a 1-point win in the final minute. That's a lot of things going right for one team at home, and with how UCF came out of the gates last week, you know they've learned their lesson about playing sloppy ball. The focus shifted to this game for UCF in the 4th quarter of last week's win, and I don't believe they fall for the second time in three games.
A clean performance from UCF from start to finish has them winning by 10+, leaving plenty of room for error should the game not turn out so spotless for the Knights under the lights. Cincinnati's interior got whitewashed in that Ohio State game, and UCF should be capable of doing something similar. Really thought this line would be closer to a TD, but I guess that recent loss from UCF has popped their invincibility shield.
The Knights haven't lost three in a row against the number since late in the 2017 season - the one where they won the “National Championship”. Two of those three games saw them laying 39 points or more and that's what got them ATS-wise, and that's nothing we have to worry about here. Sorry Cincinnati, it will be the second primetime football loss this week for football teams in your city.
Best Bet: UCF -4 ½
Central Florida @ Cincinnati
Game 307-308
October 4, 2019 @ 8:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Central Florida
98.264
Cincinnati
97.068
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Central Florida
by 2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Central Florida
by 4
60
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+4); Under
New Mexico @ San Jose St
Game 309-310
October 4, 2019 @ 10:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
New Mexico
67.151
San Jose St
70.268
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Jose St
by 3
68
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Jose St
by 7
64
Dunkel Pick:
New Mexico
(+7); Over
Trend Report
Friday, October 4
Central Florida @ Cincinnati
Central Florida
Central Florida is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games
Central Florida is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
New Mexico @ San Jose State
New Mexico
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Mexico's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Mexico's last 9 games
San Jose State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose State's last 6 games
San Jose State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Long Sheet
Friday, October 4
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UCF (4 - 1) at CINCINNATI (3 - 1) - 10/4/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCF is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
UCF is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
UCF is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
UCF is 2-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
UCF is 2-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEW MEXICO (2 - 2) at SAN JOSE ST (2 - 2) - 10/4/2019, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE ST is 27-10 ATS (+16.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
NEW MEXICO is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.