Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Friday 9/27/19
Friday’s games
Underdogs covered eight of last 11 Duke-Virginia Tech games; Blue Devils won two of last three visits to Blacksburg, with the two wins by total of five points, but those are Duke’s only wins in last 15 series games. Blue Devils covered five of their last six games as a road underdog; they split pair of I-A games, losing 41-3 to Alabama, winning 41-18 at MTSU. Virginia Tech lost its opener 35-28 at BC, then beat a couple of stiffs, sneaking past a I-AA team 24-17; under Fuente, Hokies are 9-6 ATS when laying points at home.
First road game for Penn State squad that hung on to beat Pitt 17-10 LW, giving up 372 passing yards- they allowed total of 23 points in pair of I-A wins. Last three years, Nittany Lions are 7-4 ATS as a road favorite- they’re 8-2-1 ATS in last 11 games as a Big 14 single digit fave. Maryland crushed Syracuse, but then got upset at Temple; Terrapins are 5-8 ATS in last 13 games as a home underdog- they allowed 607 PY in their two I-A games this year. Since 2011, Maryland is 7-12 ATS as a conference home dog.
San Jose State (+20.5) stunned Arkansas 31-24 LW, throwing for 402 yards; Spartans lost 34-16 at home to Tulsa the week before- they allowed total of 1,026 yards in two I-A games. San Jose is 6-2 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog. Air Force lost 30-19 at Boise LW, after upsetting Colorado the week before; Falcons are 6-8 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite, 2-6 ATS in last eight Mountain West games. Air Force ran ball for 531 yards in their two I-A games, but they also threw double digit passes in both games.
Under Herm Edwards, Arizona State covered six of eight games as an underdog; ASU split its last two games, both decided by a FG- they’ve run ball for average of only 92.7 yards/game, and they play a true freshman QB. Sun Devils lost five of last seven games with California, losing six of last seven visits to Berkeley (2-5 ATS). 4-0 Golden Bears are Pac-12’s only unbeaten team, with wins at Washington, Ole Miss; all three of their I-A games were decided by 8 or fewer points- under Wilcox, Cal is 1-5-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Friday's Tip Sheet
Matt Blunt
No. 12 Penn State at Maryland
Venue/Location: Maryland Stadium, College Park, MD
Time/TV: Friday, Sept. 27 (FS1, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Line: Penn State -6 ½ , Total 61 ½
Recent Meetings:
2018: Penn State (-12) 38 vs. Maryland 3, Under 51 ½
2017: Penn State (-23.5) 66 at Maryland 3, Over 57
2016: Penn State (+1) 38 at Maryland 14, Under 55 ½
2015: Penn State (-5.5) 31 at Maryland 30, Over 46 ½
2014: Maryland (+3) 20 at Penn State 19, Under 44
It was nice to connect with the USC Trojans last Friday, as even having another QB go down wasn't enough for a Trojans team that's quit a few times in recent years to do so again. The Pac-12 continues to be the conference where parity within the conference continues to occur, and sadly it's because of that that generally takes any one of their programs out of the national conversation.
This Friday we get another showcase of Pac-12 foes with Arizona State and a ranked California team doing battle, but that's not the only high profile Power 5 conference in action. Duke and Virginia Tech put the ACC up first for the evening, but it's the other contest featuring a ranked squad – Penn State – that I want to start with.
The Big 10 gets a piece of the Friday night stage this week, and after Penn State and Maryland both had last week off to prepare for this tilt, we should expect both sides to be rather sharp. For Penn State, it's all about getting back to their efficient ways on offense as tough weather and a tougher Pittsburgh defense had them grinding out a 17-10 home victory the last time they were on the football field. That's a rivalry game for the Nittany Lions that does tend to be much tougher then the point spread usually suggests, and Penn State never sniffed an ATS cover that day.
At the same time, Maryland's offense is looking to rebound after a tough outing against a tough defense themselves, as a 20-17 loss @ Temple was the last time they stepped on a football field. That defeat really let a lot of the air out of a very impressive start for the Terrapins – they had put up 142 points in their first two games – and then just couldn't sustain drives against the Owls. The 24% conversion rate on 3rd down (5-for-21) was the biggest issue for Maryland that day, and even their 1-for-6 number on 4th down just showed how desperate things got for that offense.
So this game sets up with two teams off a week of rest, off games where they both scored just 17 points, after they both averaged at least 62 points scored per game in their previous two games this year. Obviously, both found a big step up in competition level to be a challenge offensively, but at the same time, it's easy to figure that won't last, especially after a week off.
Understandably, the 'over' has seen plenty of support in the betting market, out of the gate and continually, as many believe those 17-point efforts by both sides were just a blip on the radar. Maryland's on a 4-1 O/U run at home dating back to last year, and are 6-0 O/U after scoring fewer than 20 points. At the same time, Penn State is on a 7-1 O/U run away from home, 12-4 O/U off a SU win, and 8-3 O/U themselves after scoring fewer than 20 points. Without question the 'over' appears to be the look for this game, but after opening sub-60 at some places, going 'over' 61.5 now with it being the “public” look can be tough to swallow.
Arizona State at No. 15 California
Venue/Location: Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA
Time/TV: Friday, Sept. 27 (ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Line: Cal -5 ½, Total 40
Recent Meetings:
2016 Arizona State (-3.5) 51 vs. California 41, Over 85
2015 California (-4) 48 at Arizona State 46, Over 67
It's always interesting how quickly a 'culture change' can happen at the collegiate level, as both of these schools have changed quite a bit since they last met in September of 2016. You don't need to look any further for proof of that point then the totals posted between then and now, as that meeting in 2016 had the total close at 85 points! It's more than half of that just a few years later.
Cal coach Justin Wilcox has built a ferocious defense fitting of the “Bear” name, while Herm Edwards has implemented his pro experience at this level to help the Sun Devils be much better on that side of the ball too. A flat '40' is an extremely low total for college football, and just like the Big 10 game on Friday night, a strong majority of the action has come on the high side of things. Just keep in mind, even with that support, the number really hasn't budged since opening and that's the difference.
But it's the side that's more appealing to me, as this Cal team definitely looks to be for real with that defense they've got. There was still some skepticism after they upset the Washington Huskies up in Washington as two-TD underdogs in that that game could have been a lightning in a bottle-type effort, but going on the road to Ole Miss for a 9 am body clock start time and winning there was what convinced me that California is for real this year. It's because of that defense – who allowed 20 points for the first time in that 28-20 Ole Miss win – as to why the Golden Bears appear to be legit, and I'm still not sure the market has completely caught up with them.
Herm Edwards brought his own skeptics with him in regards to him succeeding at this level, and even with a 34-31 home loss to Colorado last week, he's 2-0 SU vs Michigan State the last two years, and has brought a level of accountability – especially on defense – to this ASU program that they were lacking for years. That being said, there are still too many mistakes that this team makes during a 60-minute football game, and against a defense as good as the one Cal's got, that just can't happen for an underdog.
With current betting percentages showing there is plenty of support for ASU outright in this game, I believe that on this national stage late Friday night, Justin Wilcox and his Cal Golden Bears announce themselves on more of a national level.
Without question there is still plenty of room for growth offensively for Cal going forward, and if even half of that potential growth is realized, together with their defense, this team could be really scary. They aren't a team that's going to win too many 44-41 type games you can get in the Pac-12 yet, but unless they suffer numerous injuries on the defensive side of things, that's not a realistic potential outcome as it is. The total being set as low as it is suggests that this will be a 21-14 type game, and it's hard not to back this California team that's on a 6-1 ATS run in conference play if that's the case.
Best Bet: California -4 ½
Friday Best Bet YTD Record: 2-2 ATS
DUKE at VIRGINIA TECH...Hokies have covered last 2 and won last 3 SU in series. Though Fuente 0-3 vs. line TY and 7-14 last 21 on board. If Cutcliffe a dog note 24-12-1 mark in role since 2013.
Duke, based on team trends.
PENN STATE at MARYLAND...Locksley 2-0 vs. line at home this season, now 7-2 vs. spread last nine as host. But James Franklin has been merciless with three big wins and covers in a row vs. Terps, the last two by combined 104-6 scoreline! Franklin 7-4 as visiting chalk since 2016.
Penn State, based on series trends.
SAN JOSE STATE at AIR FORCE...Spartans are 6-2 last eight as a road dog and 9-3 last 11 as DD dog. Calhoun 4-2 last six as DD chalk though only 6-7 vs. line as host since 2016.
Slight to San Jose State, based on team trends.
ARIZONA STATE at CAL...If Herm a dog note his 6-3 mark in role since joining ASU last year. Cal 1-7-1 last 9 as chalk (0-2 TY), and these teams “under” a combined 6-2 this season.
Arizona State and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
NCAAF
Dunkel
Friday, September 27
Duke @ Virginia Tech
Game 105-106
September 27, 2019 @ 7:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Duke
84.438
Virginia Tech
89.561
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Virginia Tech
by 5
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Virginia Tech
by 2 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
Virginia Tech
(-2 1/2); Under
Penn State @ Maryland
Game 107-108
September 27, 2019 @ 8:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Penn State
103.410
Maryland
99.763
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Penn State
by 3 1/2
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Penn State
by 7
60
Dunkel Pick:
Maryland
(+7); Over
San Jose St @ Air Force
Game 109-110
September 27, 2019 @ 8:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
San Jose St
72.915
Air Force
86.033
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Air Force
by 13
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Air Force
by 19
56
Dunkel Pick:
San Jose St
(+19); Under
Arizona State @ California
Game 111-112
September 27, 2019 @ 10:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Arizona State
88.196
California
89.723
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
California
by 1 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
California
by 5
39 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona State
(+5); Over
NCAAF
Trend Report
Friday, September 27
Duke @ Virginia Tech
Duke
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Duke's last 6 games when playing Virginia Tech
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Duke's last 5 games
Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing Duke
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Virginia Tech's last 6 games when playing Duke
Penn State @ Maryland
Penn State
Penn State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Penn State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Maryland
Maryland is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Maryland's last 5 games at home
San Jose State @ Air Force
San Jose State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose State's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Jose State's last 8 games on the road
Air Force
Air Force is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Air Force is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Arizona State @ California
Arizona State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona State's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona State's last 5 games when playing California
California
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of California's last 7 games at home
California is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona State
NCAAF
Long Sheet
Friday, September 27
DUKE (2 - 1) at VIRGINIA TECH (2 - 1) - 9/27/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA TECH is 2-0 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
VIRGINIA TECH is 2-0 straight up against DUKE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PENN ST (3 - 0) at MARYLAND (2 - 1) - 9/27/2019, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
PENN ST is 2-0 against the spread versus MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
PENN ST is 2-0 straight up against MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SAN JOSE ST (2 - 1) at AIR FORCE (2 - 1) - 9/27/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 32-60 ATS (-34.0 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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ARIZONA ST (3 - 1) at CALIFORNIA (4 - 0) - 9/27/2019, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALIFORNIA is 62-88 ATS (-34.8 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.