NCAAF Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Saturday 1/4/20

Armed Forces Bowl Preview
Joe Williams

Armed Forces Bowl (ESPN, 11:30 a.m. ET)

Southern Miss vs. Tulane

-- The Southern Miss Golden Eagles (7-5 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) from Conference USA will battle the Tulane Green Wave (6-6 straight up, 8-4 against the spread) from the American Athletic Conference in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Tex.

-- The Golden Eagles had five losses this season, but two of them came against SEC teams back in September, including a 49-7 shredding by Alabama on Sept. 21. They managed to post wins in five of their first six conference games before suffering losses to C-USA bowl teams Western Kentucky and Florida Atlantic in the final two games, both by 17 or more points.

-- Tulane had a tale of two seasons. They opened the season 5-1 SU/ATS, with only a loss to Auburn by a 24-6 margin, to show for their first six games. However, things went off the rails Oct. 19 in Memphis, losing 47-17, and that touched off a 1-5 SU/3-3 ATS run to finish off the regular season. However, three of those losses were one-possession games, including a pair of three-point losses to Navy and UCF, two bowl teams.

-- Southern Miss has been to 26 total bowls, and the history has been mixed lately. They were crushed 42-13 by Florida State at the Independence Bowl on Dec. 27, 2017 in their most recent showing. These teams are relative neighbors, but they have never been together in a bowl game before. It is the first appearance in the Armed Forces Bowl for the Golden Eagles, although they've played four previous bowl games in the state of Texas. Those didn't go well, as they were 0-4 SU in those games.

-- Tulane has appeared in 13 previous bowl games, and they were 2-7 SU in the first nine. However, they're 3-1 SU in their past four. They have appeared in a bowl game just once, falling in the Bluebonnet Bowl Dec. 29, 1973 by a 47-7 score against Houston in the Astrodome.

-- The Green Wave offense ranked 24th in the nation with 456.8 total yards per game, and they were 11th in rushing with 251.4 yards per contest. They also scored 33.3 PPG to check in 35th in the country. Defensively they were so-so, allowing 378.9 total yards per game (55th), 214.0 passing yards per game (50th) and 164.9 rushing yards per game (75th). They also allowed 27.4 PPG to rank 65th.

-- The Golden Eagles were 59th in total yards (411.3), while ranking 23rd in passing offense with 288.6 yards. They weren't very good on the ground, posting 122.8 rushing yards per game to rank 118th, and posting just 27.8 PPG to rank 74th. Defensively, they allowed 350.3 total yards per game to rank 36th, and they were 18th against the run (111.8). They yielded just 25.9 PPG to rank 54th in the nation, too.

-- Southern Miss QB Jack Abraham passed for 3,329 yards, while WR Quez Watkins posted 1,024 yards. That's the combination.

-- Tulane RB Corey Dauphine (wrist) is listed as questionable, as is RB Darius Bradwell (foot). Leading rusher Justin McMillan (704 rushing yards, 12 total touchdowns) is good to go, however.

-- Southern Miss is 1-4-1 ATS in their past six bowl games.

-- Tulane is 7-1 ATS in the past eight games as a favorite, while going 8-3 ATS in the past 11 against Conference USA. They're 4-1 ATS in the past five against non-conference teams, and 7-3 ATS in the past 10 overall.

-- USM hit the under in each of their past five overall, while going 9-4-1 in the past 14 non-conference tilts. The over is 5-2 in their past seven bowl games, however.

-- For Tulane, the under is 5-0-1 in their past six against Conference USA foes.

-- In this series, the favorite has cashed in four of the past five meetings, and USM is 4-1 ATS in the previous five clashes. The under is also 6-1 in the past seven in this series.

NCAAF
Trend Report
Saturday, January 4

Southern Miss @ Tulane
Southern Miss
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Southern Miss's last 5 games
Southern Miss is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tulane
Tulane
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tulane's last 7 games when playing Southern Miss
Tulane is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games

Jan 4- Armed Forces Bowl, Fort Worth
First time in five years there isn’t an academy team in this game; these teams haven’t met since 2010. Southern Miss was held to 10-17 points in losing last two games, after a 7-3 start. Eagles are 9-4 ATS in last 13 games as an underdog, 2-2 TY. Their last five games stayed under. USM is 2-3 in last five bowls (favorites 4-1 ATS). Tulane lost five of last six games after a 5-1 start; Green Wave covered six of seven games as a favorite TY- their last three games went under. Tulane won three of its last four bowls, beating ULL 41-24 LY in their first bowl in five years. Average total in this bowl last five years: 84.8.

NCAAF
Dunkel
Saturday, January 4

Southern Miss @ Tulane

Game 277-278
January 4, 2020 @ 11:30 am

Dunkel Rating:
Southern Miss
77.860
Tulane
81.636
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tulane
by 4
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tulane
by 7 1/2
56 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Southern Miss
(+7 1/2); Under