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NCAAF Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Saturday 10/14/23

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(@shazman)
Posts: 58606
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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites.

 
Posted : October 14, 2023 10:10 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 58606
Member Moderator
Topic starter
 

Iowa State @ Cincinnati
Iowa State (3-3)
— LY’s starting QB Dekkers withdrew from school (gambling charges)
— freshman QB is 108-180/1,223 passing (10 TD’s/5 INTs).
— Cyclones are 0-2 on road: 10-7 at Ohio U, 50-20 at Oklahoma
— Iowa State scored 24-27 points in I-A wins, 13-7-20 in losses.
— Cyclones are 3-3, but have a +5 turnover ratio.
— 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line
— under Campbell, ISU is 11-8-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— last 2+ years, Iowa State is 9-12 ATS in conference games.
— Cyclones lost three of last four bowls SU (3-2 ATS in last five).
— ISU is 3-10 ATS in last 13 games coming off a loss.

Cincinnati (2-3)
— Cincinnati’s only I-A win: 27-21 (+6.5) at Pittsburgh.
— Bearcats lost last three games, 31-24/20-6/35-27.
— Cincy outgained BYU 498-295 LW, still lost 35-27.
— 3 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 20 starts back on offensive line; not much experience.
— senior QB Jones started 7 games at Arizona State LY.
— since 2018, Cincinnati is 11-17 ATS as a home favorite.
— New coach Satterfield is 24-28-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— over is 3-1 in their I-A games this year.
— Cincinnati lost its last three bowls SU; favorites covered 4 of last 5 bowls.

— These teams haven’t met recently.
— Big X home favorites are 7-3 ATS.

Oregon @ Washington
Oregon (5-0)
— Oregon is 4-0 vs I-A teams, scoring 44.3 ppg.
— Ducks are 2-0 on road: 38-30 @ Texas Tech, 42-6 @ Stanford. 
— Last three games, Oregon ran ball for 219.3 yards/game.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 96 starts back on offensive line.
— Senior QB Nix QB has 47 career starts, 34 of them at Auburn.
— Last 5+ years, Ducks are 50-16 SU.
— since 2019, Ducks are 3-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— under Lanning, Oregon is 8-3 ATS in Pac-12 games.
— Under is 4-0 in Oregon’s four games vs I-A teams.
— Ducks are 3-2 in last five bowl games; all three wins were by one point.

Washington (5-0)
— Washington scored 46 ppg in its first five games.
— Huskies are 3-0 at home, winning by 37-23-27 points.
— In first five games, Washington threw ball for 446.4 yards/game.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 36 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 30 starts; 17 here, 13 at Indiana.
— under DeBoer, Huskies are 7-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— Washington is 15-28 ATS in last 43 Pac-12 tilts.
— In his career, DeBoer is 11-7 ATS as a home favorite.
— under is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Last year was Washington’s first bowl since 2019.

— Teams split last six games, after a 12-0 Oregon run.
— Ducks covered seven of last eight visits to Seattle.
— Under is 4-1 in last five series games.
— Pac-12 home teams are 12-4 ATS, 6-2 if favored.

Texas A&M @ Tennessee
Texas A&M (4-2)
— Aggies scored 33+ points in its four wins. 
— Aggies are 4-0 giving up 22 or less points (gave up 48-26 in losses).
— A&M lost 48-33 only true road game at Miami, giving up 374 PY
— A&M allowed total of 45 points in its wins.
— 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 91 starts back on offensive line.
— soph backup QB Johnson has 5 career starts- his dad won a Super Bowl.
— under Fisher, Aggies are 5-5 ATS as a road underdog.
— in his career, Fisher is 13-14 ATS as an underdog.
— under Fisher, A&M is 22-21-1 ATS in SEC games.
— over is 4-2 in their games this season.
— A&M won its last three bowls, scoring 52-24-41 points.

Tennessee (4-1)
— Tennessee scored 30+ points in wins, lost 29-16 at Florida.
— Vols’ I-A wins are by 36-31-21 points.
— Gators held Tennessee to 100 RY; Vols ran for 228+ yards in wins.
— Vols are 15-3 SU in last 18 games (27-33 from 2017-21)
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 93 starts back on offensive line.
— Senior QB has nine starts.
— Under Heupel, Tennessee is 10-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Heupel, Tennessee is 9-9 ATS in SEC games.
— Vols are 4-1 SU/ATS in their last five bowls.

— These teams haven’t met since 2020.
— Texas A&M won two of last three meetings.
— SEC home favorites are 7-3 ATS

Kansas @ Oklahoma State
Kansas (5-1)
— Kansas scored 31+ points in its wins, lost 40-14 at Texas.
— Kansas gave up 336-202 YR to Texas/UCF last two weeks.
— Jayhawks ran ball for 221+ yards in four of five wins.
— 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 133 starts back on offensive line; four starters are back
— junior QB has started 13 games.
— since, Kansas is 0-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— in his career, Leipold is 7-8 as a road favorite.
— under Leipold, Kansas is 9-11-1 ATS in Big X games.
— under Leipold, Kansas is 7-4-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Kansas was 6-7 LY, going to their first bowl since 2008.

Oklahoma State (3-2)
— OSU gave up 33-34 points in losses, 13-15-21 in wins. 
— Last three weeks, Okla State gave up 179 rushing yards/game.
— Cowboys were minus-2 in turnovers in both losses.
— Cowboys were 7-6 LY, their worst season since 2018.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 129 starts back on offensive line; improvement is expected.
— senior QB Bowman has 5,329 passing yards and 34 passing TD’s in his career.
— He comes to OSU after playing at Texas Tech/Michigan.
— Under Gundy, Cowboys are 11-11-2 ATS as a home underdog.
— OSU is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 Big X games.
— Under is 3-1 in their four I-A games.
— Cowboys are 3-2 in last five bowls, winning by 5-3-2 points.

— K-State beat OSU 37-16 LY, its first series win since 2007.
— Wildcats are 1-7-1 ATS in last nine visits to Stillwater.
— Over is 5-2-1 in last eight meetings.

Florida @ South Carolina
Florida (4-2)
— Gators lost 24-11 at Utah, 33-14 at Kentucky in its two road games.
— Florida gave up 16 or less points in its four wins.
— Gators are minus-4 in turnovers this season.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 74 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB started 32 games at Wisconsin
— since 2018, Florida is 4-3 ATS as road underdogs.
— in his career, Napier is 16-5-1 ATS as an underdog.
— Gators are 5-16-1 ATS in last 22 games coming off a win.
— All of Florida’s games were decided by 13+ points.

South Carolina (2-3)
— South Carolina is 1-3 vs I-A teams, losing 31-17/24-14/41-20.
— Gamecocks beat Miss State 37-30 for its one I-A win.
— Carolina allowed 472.8 yards/game in its four I-A games.
— 6 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line; they added two I-AA transfers, too.
— Junior QB has 30 starts, 13 of them at Oklahoma.
— Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 9-10 ATS in the SEC.
— Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 6-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— SC’s new offensive coordinator has been an OC in the NFL.
— Carolina is 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS in last five bowls.

— Florida won six of last eight series games.
— Gators are 4-6 ATS in last ten visits to Columbia.
— Over is 5-1 in last six meetings.

BYU @ TCU
Brigham Young (4-1)
— BYU is 1-1 in Big X: L27-38 at Kansas, W35-27 over Cincinnati.
— BYU is 33-10 SU last 3+ years.
— Last four games, Cougars ran ball 104 times for 202 yards.
— Last two games, opponents ran ball for 221-242 yards.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line— added transfers on OL
— senior QB Slovis threw 1,268 passes, 68 TD’s at USC/Pitt.
— BYU is 15-6 ATS in last 21 games as a road underdog.
— BYU’s last three games went over the total.
— BYU is 3-2 SU/ATS in its last five bowls.

TCU (3-3)
— TCU lost last two games, scoring 21-14 points.
— Frogs are 0-2 when they score less than 34 points.
— Frogs are 0-3 in games decided by fewer than 17 points.
— TCU has gained 396+ TY in all of its games this year.
— TCU’s last four games stayed under the total.
— 3 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 73 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has started three games.
— in his career, coach Dykes is 26-20 ATS as a home favorite.
— since 2016, Horned Frogs are 11-23-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— TCU went 13-2 LY, but lost national title game 65-7 to Georgia.
— TCU qualified for a bowl in four of last six seasons.

— These teams haven’t met since 2011.
— Big X home favorites are 7-3 ATS.

Arizona @ Washington State
Arizona (3-3)
— Last 2 weeks, Arizona lost 31-24 to Washington, 43-41 OT at USC
— Arizona outgained the Trojans 506-365 in last week’s loss.
— Wildcats allowed 31-31-43 points in losses, 10-20 in I-A wins.
— last three years, Arizona was 6-23 SU (minus-32 in turnovers)
— 8 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB DeLaura has 27 starts, 15 of them at Washington State.
— Arizona is 5-2 ATS in last seven games as a road underdog.
— under is 4-1 in last five Arizona games.
— Arizona hasn’t played in a bowl game since 2017.

Washington State (4-1)
— Wazzu is 3-1 in first four I-A games, losing 25-17 at UCLA LW.
— Last two games, Coogs allowed 440-470 total yards.
— Coogs scored 50-31-38 points in its I-A wins.
— since 2015, Wazzu is 20-14-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started 13 games LY; he’s thrown 14 TD’s, 2 INTs TY.
— Wazzu is 14-5-1 ATS in last 20 conference games.
— Last three games, Coogs are minus-4 in turnovers.
— Wazzu went bowling five of last six years (1-4 SU/0-5 ATS)

— Wazzu won five of last six series games.
— Arizona is 1-5 ATS in last six visits to Pullman.
— Over is 6-1 in last seven meetings.

Auburn @ LSU
Auburn (3-2)
— Auburn lost 27-10/27-20 last two weeks, after a 3-0 start.
— In those two losses, Auburn was 20-43/143 passing, combined.
— Tigers beat UMass 59-14/Cal Bears 14-10 for their I-A wins.
— Last 3+ years, Auburn is 20-21 SU.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 92 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB started 25 games at Michigan State.
— In his career, Freeze is 26-11 ATS as an underdog.
— Auburn is 8-14-1 ATS in last 23 games as a road underdog.
— In his career, Freeze is 16-7 ATS as a road dog.
— Auburn is 1-4 SU in last five bowls (favored in 4 of 5)
— Freeze is Auburn’s third coach in 4 years.

LSU (4-2)
— LSU gave up 55-39 points in its last two games.
— Tigers scored 41-34-49-49 points in last four games.
— Last three weeks, Tigers gave up 553 total yards/game. 
— LSU has given up 31+ points in four of five I-A games.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 102 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 43 starts, 29 of them at Arizona State.
— under Kelly, LSU is 4-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— In his career, Kelly is 46-43-3 ATS as a home favorite. 
— since 2017, LSU is 34-21-1 ATS in SEC games.
— LSU is 21-14 ATS in last 35 games coming off a win.
— LSU is 4-1 SU/ATS in bowls the last five years.

— LSU won four of last six series games.
— Auburn is 1-8 SU/5-4 ATS in last nine visits to Baton Rouge.
— Last five meetings stayed under the total.

USC @ Notre Dame
USC (6-0)
— USC won its first six games, scoring 51.8 ppg (2-4 ATS).
— USC was favored by 20+ points in all six of those games.
— Trojans are 2-0 on road: 42-28 at ASU, 48-41 at Colorado.
— USC has 22 sacks in its six wins.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 95 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB has started 21 games, is favored to win Heisman Trophy.
— In his career, Riley is 4-0 ATS as a road underdog, 1-0 at USC.
— Trojans are 6-3 ATS in last nine non-conference games.
— USC is 1-4 SU in last five bowls (favored in 3 of 5 games)
— Pac-12 teams are 16-7 ATS in non-conference games.

Notre Dame (5-2)
— Notre Dame lost two of last three games, after a 4-0 start.
— Irish scored 14-20 points in losses, 41+ in four of five wins.
— under Freeman, Notre Dame is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 69 starts back on offensive line- new OL coach was at Wisconsin for 7 years. 
— Senior QB Hartman started 45 games at Wake Forest.
— Irish are 11-8 ATS last 19 games coming off a loss. 
— Last three Notre Dame games stayed under the total.
— Irish lost three of last four bowls SU (3-2 ATS in last five).

— Notre Dame is 8-4 in last dozen series games.
— USC is 2-5 ATS in last seven visits to South Bend.
— Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.

Miami @ North Carolina
Miami FL (4-1)
— Miami lost 23-20 at Ga Tech LW, on late-game coaching blunder.
— ‘canes won only road game, 41-7 (-23) at Temple.
— Last 2+ years, Miami is 16-13 SU, 11-17 ATS.
— Miami has gained 451+ TY in all five games this year.
— 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 120 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 18 career starts.
— Miami is 7-3 ATS in last 10 games as a road underdog.
— In his career, Cristobal is 18-21 ATS as a road underdog.
— under Cristobal, Hurricanes are 1-8 ATS in ACC games.
— Miami hasn’t been to a bowl since 2020; last bowl win? 2016.

North Carolina (5-0)
— Carolina won its first four games, scoring 36.6 ppg.
— Tar Heels covered four of five games TY.
— UNC is averaging 500 yards/game this season.
— in 4+ years under Brown, UNC is 35-22 SU/28-28-1 ATS.
— 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 137 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has 14 starts; he threw 38 TD’s last year.
— Tar Heels are 13-9 ATS last 22 games as a home favorite.
— last 2+ years, UNC is 9-10 ATS in the ACC.
— Carolina went bowling last four years, lost last three.

— North Carolina won last four meetings, three of them by exactly 3 points.
— Miami is 1-4 ATS in last five visits to Chapel Hill.
— Over is 4-1 in last five series games.

Missouri @ Kentucky
Missouri (5-1)
— Mizzou is 4-1 vs I-A teams, despite giving up 28.6 ppg.
— Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 5-6 ATS as a road underdog. 
— Last four weeks, Tigers gained 430-542-532-527 TY.
— Last four weeks, Tigers threw ball for 371.8 yards/game.
— LSU ran for 274 against Mizzou in LW’s 49-39 win.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 136 starts back on offensive line; very experienced
— junior QB has started 14 games.
— In his career, Drinkwitz is 14-9 ATS as an underdog.
— Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 6-3 ATS as an underdog.
— Last four Mizzou games went over the total.
— Mizzou lost its last four bowls; their last bowl win— 2015.

Kentucky (5-1)
— Kentucky was outgained 608-183 in LW’s 51-13 loss at Georgia.
— Wildcats scored 39.3 ppg in beating four I-A stiffs.
— All five of their I-A games were decided by 17+ points. 
— Last two games, Kentucky completed only 19-46 passes.
— 10 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 125 starts back on offensive line (four starters back)
— senior QB started 26 games at NC State.
— Wildcats are 13-9 ATS last 22 games as a home favorite.
— Under Stoops, Kentucky is 22-13 ATS as a home favorite.
— Kentucky is 12-7 ATS in last 19 SEC games.
— Wildcats won four of their last five bowls (lost 21-0 LY).

— Kentucky is 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS in last eight series games.
— Mizzou is 1-3 ATS in last four visits to Lexington.
— Under is 7-2 in last nine meetings.

UCLA @ Oregon State
UCLA (3-1)
— UCLA is 3-1 vs I-A teams, giving up 13-10-14-17 points.
— Bruins’ only loss was 14-7 (+3.5) @ Utah
— All four of their I-A games stayed under the total.
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 126 starts back on offensive line; high expectations.
— frosh QB Moore is 69-130/1,139 passing, with 9 TD’s, 4 INT’s.
— Under Kelly, Bruins are 10-8 ATS as road underdogs.
— Since 2019, UCLA is 21-15 ATS in Pac-12 games.
— UCLA is 15-12 ATS in last 27 games coming off a win.
— UCLA lost its last three bowls, giving up 37-35-37 points.
— Bruins’ last bowl win was 40-35 over K-State in 2014 Alamo Bowl.

Oregon State (5-1)
— OSU is 2-0 at home vs I-A teams; 26-9 over San Diego St, 21-7 over Utah.
— Beavers’ only loss was 38-35 at Washington State.
— Beavers gave up 241 YR in LW’s 52-40 win at Cal. 
— Utah is only team that held OSU under 440 TY.
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 109 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB started 28 games at Clemson.
— Under Smith, OSU is 11-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Beavers are 17-5 ATS in last 22 games coming off a win.
— Beavers are 2-3 SU in last five bowls (were favored in all five).

— Teams split last eight series games.
— UCLA is 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS in last five visits to Corvallis.
— Under is 6-2 in last eight meetings.

NC State @ Duke
NC State (4-2)
— NC State has road wins at UConn (24-14), Virginia (24-21)
— Wolfpack beat Marshall 48-41 LW, using soph backup QB.
— NC State was held to 24-10 points in its two losses. 
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB Morris has started three games.
— Previous starter Armstrong started 30 games at Virginia.
— under Doeren, State is 9-17-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last five years, Wolfpack is 18-25-1 ATS in ACC games.

Duke (4-1)
— Duke lost last game 21-14 to Notre Dame, after 4-0 start.
— Duke was 9-4 LY, after going 10-24 from 2019-21.
— Blue Devils covered their last seven tries as a home favorite.
— 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 122 starts back on offensive line, with 4 starters back
— junior QB has started 14 games.
— Blue Devils has given up only 12.3 ppg in its four I-A games. 
— under Elko, Duke is 7-2 ATS in ACC games. 
— Duke scored 28+ points in all four of its wins.
— Duke won/covered its last four bowls; last bowl loss was in 2014.

— NC State won nine of last 11 series games.
— Wolfpack is 4-2 ATS in last six visits to Durham.
— Over is 2-2 in last four meetings.

 
Posted : October 14, 2023 10:12 am
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