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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 14
Saturday’s games
South Carolina @ Clemson (-3)
South Carolina (8-3)
Gamecocks won their last five games, scoring 39.4 ppg.
Carolina is +6 in turnovers in its wins, minus-4 in losses.
Carolina has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Gamecocks have 118 returning starts on the offensive line.
Freshman QB Sellers threw four passes in three games LY.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 7-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 14-12 ATS coming off a win.
Gamecocks are 8-2 ATS in last ten games overall.
South Carolina is 1-3 when it allows more than 20 points.
Over is 6-2 in their last eight I-A games.
Clemson (9-2)
Clemson allowed 34-33 points in its two losses.
Clemson is 15-20 ATS in last 35 games coming off a win.
Tigers have 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Tigers have 106 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Klubnik has 14 career starts.
Clemson is 6-4 ATS last 10 games as a home favorite.
In his career, Swinney is 55-45-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Tigers are 14-11 ATS in their last 25 ACC games.
Clemson is +13 in turnovers in wins, minus-1 in losses.
Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Clemson games.
Clemson is 8-1 SU/6-3 ATS in last nine meetings.
Gamecocks are 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS in last four visits to Clemson.
Under is 4-2 in last six series games.
Kansas (-1.5) @ Baylor
Kansas (5-6, 4-4)
Kansas won four of last five games, after a 1-5 start.
Jayhawks need a win to become bowl eligible.
Jayhawks have five losses by 6 or fewer points.
Jayhawks have 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Kansas has 130 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Daniels has 20 career starts.
In his career, Leipold is 8-10 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Leipold, Kansas is 1-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Kansas is 1-4 SU/2-3 ATS in its five road games.
Under Leipold, Kansas is 12-7-1 ATS coming off a win.
Three of last four Kansas games stayed under the total.
Baylor (7-4, 5-4)
Baylor won its last five games, scoring 40.6 ppg
Last eight games, Bears gave up 33.4 ppg.
Baylor has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Bears have 97 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Robertson started four games last year.
Baylor allowed 433+ yards in five of last six games.
Under Aranda, Baylor is 11-7 ATS as home favorites.
Under Aranda, Bears are 17-11 ATS coming off a win.
Under Aranda, Baylor is 24-22 ATS in conference games.
Baylor is +5 in turnovers their last five games.
Over is 7-1 in Baylor’s last eight games.
Baylor won last 13 series games (11-0 ATS in last 11)
Jayhawks are 0-7 SU/ATS in last seven visits to Waco.
Big X home underdogs are 7-9 ATS
West Virginia @ Texas Tech (-3.5)
West Virginia (6-5, 5-3)
WVU won three of last four games, after a 2-3 start.
West Virginia is 0-3 when it scores less than 31 points.
Mountaineers have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Mountaineers have 113 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Greene has 14 career starts.
Under Brown, WVU is 13-11 ATS as a road underdog (3-0 TY).
In his career, Brown is 22-13 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Brown, WVU is 25-27 ATS in Big X games.
Under Brown, Mountaineers are 13-19 ATS in games coming off a win.
Over is 7-3 in their last ten games.
Texas Tech (7-4, 5-3)
Texas Tech is 2-3 in last five games, after a 5-1 start
Tech gave up 37-59-35-41 points in their four losses.
Red Raiders have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Red Raiders have 125 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Morton started 12 games LY (25 TDs/7 INTs this year)
Texas Tech is 7-5-1 ATS last 13 games as a home favorite.
Under McGuire, Red Raiders are 14-11-1 ATS in Big X games.
Texas Tech is 5-3 in Big X games (average total, 70.8)
Tech is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games.
Tech gave up 432+ yards in five of last seven games.
Over is 4-1 in Tech’s last five games.
Tech won/covered four of last five meetings.
WVU is 3-3 SU/2-4 ATS in last six visits to Lubbock.
Under is 7-3 in last ten series games.
Big X home favorites are 20-19 ATS.
Pittsburgh @ Boston College (-4.5)
Pittsburgh (7-4, 3-4)
Pitt lost its last four games, after a 7-0 start.
Panthers scored 28+ points in six of their seven wins.
Panthers have 9 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Panthers have 58 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Holstein has 2,228 passing yards, with 17 TD’s, 7 INTs, but he’s been banned up recently.
Pitt is 1-8 ATS last nine games as a road underdog.
Panthers were held under 300 TY in four of last six games.
Under Narduzzi, Pitt is 28-25 ATS as an underdog
Panthers are 4-7 ATS in last 11 games coming off a loss
Under is 6-1 in their last seven games.
Boston College (6-5, 3-4)
BC won last week; they’re bowl eligible now.
Eagles are 1-5 when they allow more than 21 points.
Eagles have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Eagles have 115 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB James has 648 PY in his three starts.
Boston College is 1-8 ATS in last nine games as a home favorite.
In his college career, O’Brien is 9-6 ATS as a home favorite.
Eagles are 15-16 ATS in last 31 ACC games (4-0 last four).
BC gave up 431+ total yards in four of last five games.
Over is 5-0 in their last five games.
Pitt won five of last seven series games.
Panthers are 2-4 SU/3-3 ATS in last six visits to Boston.
Under is 3-2 in last five series games.
ACC home favorites are 20-20 ATS
Notre Dame (-7.5) @ USC
Notre Dame (10-1)
Notre Dame won its last nine games, covered last seven.
Notre Dame’s only loss was 16-14 at home to Northern Illinois.
Irish have 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Notre Dame has 34 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Leonard started 21 games at Duke.
Notre Dame held 10 of 11 opponents to 16 or fewer points.
Since 2017, Notre Dame is 18-7-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Freeman, Notre Dame is 6-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Freeman, Notre Dame is 9-3 ATS in all road games.
Under Freeman, Notre Dame is 17-8-1 ATS coming off a win
Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
USC (6-5)
Trojans won three of their last four games.
USC is 2-5 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
USC has 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Trojans have 72 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Maiava started 11 games at UNLV; this is hist 3rd USC start.
USC is 0-5 when it gives up more than 21 points.
Under Riley, USC is 4-2 ATS as an underdog.
In his career, Riley is 7-2 ATS as an underdog.
Under Riley, USC is 11-12 ATS in games coming off a win.
Under is 3-0 in their last four games.
Big 18 non-conference underdogs are 4-3 ATS.
Notre Dame is 5-1 SU/3-3 ATS in last six meetings.
Notre Dame is 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS in last four games in the Coliseum.
Auburn @ Alabama (-11.5)
Auburn (5-6, 2-5)
Auburn won 3 of last 4 games, needs this win to go bowling.
Auburn is 0-6 when it scores less than 24 points.
Tigers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Tigers have 87 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Thorpe has 37 career starts.
Last 3+ years, Auburn is 7-6-1 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Freeze is 19-9 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Freeze, Auburn is 8-7 ATS in SEC games.
Under Freeze, Auburn is 3-7 ATS coming off a win
Auburn is minus-1q in turnovers this season.
Under is 4-2 in their last six games.
Alabama (8-3, 4-3)
Alabama is 6-0 if it allows less than 24 points, 2-3 if they allow 24+.
Crimson Tide was held under 100 yards rushing in all three losses.
Alabama has 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Crimson Tide has 60 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Milroe has started 14 games.
Alabama is 20-9-1 ATS last 30 games as a home favorite.
In his career, DeBoer is 14-12-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Alabama is 12-10-1 ATS in its last 23 SEC games.
Under is 4-0 in their last three I-A games.
Alabama is 6-3 ATS in last nine games coming off a loss.
Alabama is 4-0 SU/1-2-1 ATS in last four series games.
Auburn is 0-6 SU/0-5-1 in last six visits to Tuscaloosa.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Oklahoma @ LSU (-6)
Oklahoma (6-5, 2-5)
Oklahoma lost 4 of last 5 SEC games, but upset Alabama LW.
Sooners are 0-5 when they allow more than 21 points.
Oklahoma has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Sooners have 114 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Arnold has thrown for 1,311 yards (12 TDs, 3 INTs)
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 2-0 ATS as a road underdog.
Sooners are 3-3 ATS as an underdog this season.
Under Venables, Sooners are 10-14-1 ATS in conference games.
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 8-12-1 ATS in games coming off a win.
Last five I-A games, Oklahoma is minus-7 in turnovers.
Sooners held 3 of last 4 I-A opponents under 300 TY.
LSU (7-4, 4-3)
LSU lost 3 of last 4 games, after a 6-1 start.
LSU scored 24+ points in wins, 20-23-13-16 in losses.
Tigers have 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Tigers have 111 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Nussmeier is completing 63.2% of passes (23 TD’s, 11 INTs)
Under Kelly, Tigers are 10-4-1 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Kelly is 52-45-3 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Kelly, LSU is 10-11-1 ATS in SEC games.
Since 2017, LSU is 38-27-2 ATS in SEC games.
Seven of LSU’s last eight games stayed under the total.
LSU is 3-7 ATS in its I-A games this season.
These teams haven’t met since a bowl game five years ago.
SEC home favorites are 6-22 ATS
Texas (-5.5) @ Texas A&M
Texas (10-1, 6-1)
Nine of ten Texas wins are by 10+ points.
Texas held 10 of 11 opponents under 300 TY.
Longhorns have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Longhorns have 123 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Ewers has completed 68% of passes (23 TD’s, 6 INTs)
Under Sarkisian, Texas is 6-7 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Sarkisian, Texas is 16-19 ATS in conference games.
Texas is 12-9 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.
Longhorns’ only loss was 30-15 at home to Georgia.
Under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.
Texas A&M (8-3, 5-2)
A&M lost its last two SEC games, 44-20/43-41.
Aggies scored 34+ points in five of its last six games.
Aggies have 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
A&M has 112 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Weigman has 8 career starts.
A&M allowed 439+ total yards in three of last four games.
Aggies are 2ann underdog for first time this season.
A&M is 8-12-3 ATS in its last 22 SEC games.
In his career, new HC Elko is 7-4 ATS as an underdog.
Aggies are 4-9 ATS in last 13 games coming off a loss.
Five of A&M’s last six games went over the total.
These teams used to be bitter rivals; they haven’t met since 2011.
SEC home underdogs are 17-9 ATS.
Kansas State @ Iowa State (-2.5)
Kansas State (8-3, 6-3)
K-State lost two of last three games, after a 7-1 start.
K-State scored 29+ points in its wins, 9-19-14 in losses.
Wildcats are +7 in turnovers in wins, minus-6 in losses.
Wildcats have 4 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Wildcats have 73 returning starts on OL, only 36 at I-A level.
Frosh QB Johnson has thrown for 2,297 yards (19 TDs, 79INTs)
Under Klieman, K-State is 16-9 ATS as an underdog.
Under Klieman, Wildcats are 10-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Klieman, K-State is 34-21 ATS in Big X games.
Wildcats are 24-20 ATS last 44 games coming off a win.
Under is 3-1 in K-State’s last four games.
Iowa State (9-2, 6-2)
Iowa State scored 36-34-31 points in its last three games.
Cyclones’ losses: 23-22 Tex Tech/45-36 at Kansas
Cyclones have 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Cyclones have 90 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Becht started 13 games last season.
Iowa State’s last five games had average total of 57.8.
Under Campbell, ISU is 19-20 ATS as a home favorite.
Cyclones are 10-7 ATS in last 17 conference games.
Cyclones are +7 in turnovers this season.
Over is 6-4 in Iowa State’s I-A games.
Iowa State won four of last six series games.
K-State is 4-2 SU/1-4-1 ATS in last six visits to Ames
Big X home favorites are 20-19 ATS.
Virginia @ Virginia Tech (-7)
Virginia (5-6, 3-4)
Virginia lost 5 of last 6 games, after a 4-1 start.
Cavaliers allowed 33+ points in their last four losses.
Cavaliers have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Cavaliers have 81 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB started six games last year.
Under Elliott, Virginia is 14-7 ATS as an underdog.
Under Elliott, Virginia is 8-4 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Elliott, Cavaliers are 14-7 ATS in ACC games.
Virginia is 10-8 ATS in last 18 games coming off a loss.
Under is 6-1 in their last seven games.
Virginia Tech (5-6, 3-4)
Tech lost last three games, giving up 31 ppg.
Hokies are 5-0 when they allow less than 21 points.
Tech gave up 34-26-38-38-24-31 points in losses.
Hokies have 11 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
Cavaliers have 122 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Drones started 11 games last year.
Under Pry, Hokies are 6-6 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Pry, Hokies are 13-9 ATS in ACC games.
Under Pry, Hokies are 10-11 ATS coming off a loss.
Tech is 0-5 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Over is 6-3 in last nine Tech games.
Tech won three in row, 18 of last 19 games vs Virginia.
Cavaliers are 0-11 SU/2-9 ATS in last 11 visits to Blacksburg.