NCAAF Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Saturday 8/31/19

Saturday's Essentials
Tony Mejia

Here’s a look at what must be considered before wagering on Saturday's slate in all FBS vs. FBS matchups:

Early Starts

Florida Atlantic at Ohio State (-27.5/63.5), 12 p.m. ET, FOX: Lane Kiffin’s Owls have been outscored 105-34 in his first two season-openers at the school. Since Deondre Francois wound up at Hampton, QB Chris Robison is expected to see the majority of the snaps despite a student-newspaper story dropping this week alleging that a complaint against him for sexual assault wasn’t properly investigated. The Oklahoma transfer likely won’t be the only FAU player to line up under the center but is expected to do the bulk of the work. How quickly will the Buckeyes overcome any jitters as Georgia transfer Justin Fields takes his first snaps at quarterback as head coach Ryan Day settling in full-time? With Cincinnati in town next week, Ohio State wouldn’t want to see RB JK Dobbins overloaded with work behind an offensive line that must be patched together since multiple starters went off to the NFL.

South Alabama at Nebraska (-36/66), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN: The Huskers still haven’t divulged if top RB Maurice Washington will play after pleading not guilty to a revenge porn charge in California back in April, so former Georgia Tech standout Dedrick Mills might be worth the fantasy nod. After an 0-6 start to ‘18, Scott Frost won’t have his team looking ahead to next weekend’s visit to Colorado but probably will withhold any real wrinkles unless it’s necessary. South Alabama’s chances hinge on QB Cephus Johnson being more accurate since he completed just 36.8 of his passes last season.

East Carolina vs. NC State (-17.5/52), 12 p.m. ET, ACCN: Ryan Finley lit it up for the NFL’s Bengals all preseason and the Wolfpack’s two 1,000-yard receivers are also gone, so it will be interesting to see what this offense looks like with co-coordinators replacing Eli Drinkwitz, who took over as Appalachian State’s head coach. Sophomore Matt McKay beat out ex-FSU commit Bailey Hockman for first crack at replacing Finley. ECU’s Holton Ahlers impressed before being hurt last season and will open under center as a sophomore after leading the team rushing yards, rushing scores and TD passes despite making only five starts. Mike Houston, who had a great run at FCS-member James Madison, lost to N.C. State 24-13 in last season’s opener when he was with the Dukes, so the entire coaching staff will be familiar with the Pack. ECU won 33-30 in 2016 at home but fell in Raleigh 58-3 to close out last year’s disastrous season.

Akron at Illinois (-18/61), 12 p.m ET, BTN: Lovie Smith is 3-0 in lid-lifters since taking over the Illini but hasn’t covered the past two against MAC foes. With Michigan transfer Brandon Peters in to run the show, Smith has the most talented quarterback he’s had at the position since he returned to the college game. The schedule lays out for Illinois to open 3-0 for the first time since 2011 if they take care of business as a favorite. Akron moved on from Terry Bowden, so we’ll see what things look like under Tom Arth, a former QB tasked with upgrading an offense that was held to single-digits in three of last season’s final four game. Defensively, Illinois will likely stay away from dangerous DB Alvin Davis, the unquestioned leader of a revamped secondary.

Ball State vs. Indiana (-18/60.5), 12 p.m. ET, CBSSN: This game is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium. For Ball State, it’s an opportunity to knock off the first power-five of the Mike Neu era, which is entering an important fourth year. The Cardinals have covered at Indiana, Illinois and Notre Dame during his tenure but fell 38-10 at the Hoosiers last season. Junior QB Drew Plitt threw more picks than TD passes last season but has a lot of receiving weapons. Indiana will start redshirt freshman QB Michael Penix, who tore his ACL last season but showed real promise in limited action and has a number of wideouts back. RB Stevie Scott accounted for over 1,200 yards and 11 scores as a freshman.

Toledo at Kentucky (-11.5/61.5), 12 p.m. ET, SEC: After a dream season that delivered 10 wins for the first time in 41 years and a bowl upset over Penn State, the Wildcats will adjust to life without top rusher Bennie Snell and sack master Josh Allen, justifiably the faces of the program. There’s definitely plenty back, starting with electric QB Terry Wilson, who would make life much easier if he can eliminate mistakes. Mitchell Guadagni won back the QB gig at Toledo and had moments of brilliance as a junior, but this is by far the toughest task Jason Candle has had to open a season since taking over as head coach. The Rockets suffered a major blow when center Bryce Harris (knee) was lost for the season. His presence stabilizing the offensive line will be missed in Lexington. Toledo comes off its first losing season on the road since 2009.

Mississippi State (-19.5/60) vs. Louisiana, 12 p.m. ET, ESPNU: This game is being played at the Superdome in New Orleans and will see Penn State grad transfer Tommy Stevens debut in a system he knows well, giving Joe Moorhead a downfield passing attack that wasn’t feasible under the Tim Tebow-like Nick Fitzgerald, who set an SEC record for all-time rushing yards from a QB. Three NFL first-round picks are gone from last season’s swarming defense, so we’ll see what veteran coordinator Bob Shoop comes up with out of the gate as he looks to keep talented Ragin’ Cajuns RB Trey Ragas from finding a rhythm behind an offensive line dealing with significant attrition since center Cole Prudhomme is out and guard Kevin Dotson is questionable. QB Levi Lewis is the unquestioned starter and has legitimate threats in WRs Ja’Marcus Bradley and “Bam” Jackson, but Louisiana lost last season’s game in Starkville 56-10.

Ole Miss at Memphis (-4.5/64.5), 12 p.m. ET, ABC: The Rebels and Tigers are getting together for the first time since 2016 and the fact Memphis last upset an SEC foe when Ole Miss came through the Liberty Bowl in ’15 makes this all the more interesting. Head coach Mike Norvell nearly beat UCF twice last season and defeated UCLA at home two years ago, but he’s got to replace RB Darrell Henderson, who accounted for over 2,300 yards and 25 touchdowns and made life much easier for QB Brady White. The Rebs have their own offensive concerns considering their top receivers are all gone, which means redshirt freshman QB Matt Corral could have his work cut out for him. He got in four games last season and impressed with his ability to mix it up. Getting senior RB Scottie Phillips off to take some pressure off Corral is head coach Matt Luke’s chief objective.

Boise State at Florida State (-6.5/54.5), 12 p.m. ET, ESPNN: This game was supposed to be played in Jacksonville but was moved to Tallahassee due to the impending threat of Hurricane Dorian, which makes this a true home game for the ‘Noles. Books voided action and have put a new number on this one as a write-in game. For the Broncos, the task gets more difficult since FSU will come out of its home locker room and enjoy more of an edge, but their ability to pull an upset was always going to hinge on how their experienced offensive line holds up against a defense looking to turn the page after an awful 2018. Willie Taggart is already on the hot seat and hired Kendal Briles to help coordinate an offense that was also a disaster in Year 1 but gets QB James Blackman back in addition to elite playmakers in RB Cam Akers and WR Tamorrion Terry.

Afternoon Delights

Georgia State at Tennessee (-26.5/57.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU: Jeremy Pruitt is under pressure to keep the Vols from a third straight losing season that would be their seventh in a 10-year span, so winning this one easily would be reassuring. His run started horribly in a 40-14 loss to West Virginia a year ago and his defense faded in surrendering 88 points in season-ending losses to Mizzou and Vandy. QB Jarrett Guarantano is now a junior and should be among the SEC’s top quarterbacks given that the entire offense is back, while the league’s returning sack leader, Darrell Taylor, should team with a talented secondary to get things turned around. It all sounds great, but Tennessee needs to prove it on the field. Georgia State won just twice last season after reaching a bowl in HC Shawn Elliott’s first season. This will be their lone game against a power-five, so they’ll be hyped out of the gate. Senior QB Dan Ellington led the team in passing and rushing, so if you’re on the Panthers to cover, he’ll have to do his part.

Eastern Michigan (-6/53) at Coastal Carolina, 3:30 p.m ET: With two bowl trips rewarding a pair of winning seasons over the last three years, it’s fair to say Chris Creighton has turned around EMU, but building a consistent winner in a program that has notoriously produced little takes even more work. Last season’s upset at Purdue was monumental and sets up a pair of big games for the program at Kentucky and Illinois in the next week. How much momentum they take into that hinges on how well QB Mike Glass picks up where he left off in the Camellia Bowl. The Eagles are 16-3 ATS over their last 19 road games, so keep that in mind before blindly backing the host Chanticleers. Coastal does return a defense featuring many familiar faces. Head coach Jamey Chadwell picked Fred Payton, Jr. to start ahead of Bryce Carpenter in the spread option. Both appeared as true freshmen and put up similar numbers, so look for each to appear against the visiting Eagles.

South Carolina (-11.5/63.5) vs. North Carolina, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN: Charlotte’s Bank of America Stadium will host Mack Brown’s return to coaching, so we’ll see what he’s come up with in the lab as he tries to help the Tar Heels bounce back from consecutive nine-loss seasons. Improvement may be gradual, but it should come over time with true freshman QB Sam Howell at the helm. The highly-rated recruit won the job and will have RB Javonte Williams in addition to WRs Dazz Newsome and Dyami Brown to help stretch the field. UNC wants to push tempo, but it remains to be seen how effective it will be with an SEC defense on tap this week and Miami’s solid group coming through Chapel Hill next week. Will Muschamp’s Gamecocks were blanked by Virginia in the Belk Bowl and are looking for senior QB Jake Bentley to produce his best season yet without the services of Deebo Samuel, who should have a big role with the 49ers as a rookie. RB Rico Dowdle and a number of capable wideouts will look to fill the void.

Duke vs. Alabama (-33.5/57), 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC: You know David Cutcliffe would love to have Daniel Jones back for at least one more game, but he does have a senior in Quentin Harris, who has started a few games in place of the latest N.Y. Giants’ first-round pick over the years. The Blue Devils have posted winning seasons in five of the past six years, so Nick Saban should have no problem putting a scare into his Crimson Tide that they better not collectively overlook the smart kids. It will be a ‘Bama “home” game at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium, which they’ve played in three times already. Tua Tagovailoa will lead an explosive offense featuring the nation’s highest-regarded WR in Jerry Jeudy and a host of other toys. The Tide may need to put their foot on the gas since a defense that comes off getting sliced up by Oklahoma and Clemson in last season’s playoffs lost multiple key figures. Top tackler Dylan Moses was supposed to lead the way from his linebacker position but injured his knee in practice on Tuesday and is now out for the season.

Northwestern at Stanford (-6/47), 4 p.m. ET, FOX: There certainly isn’t as much buzz surrounding the Cardinal as there has been in recent years, so maybe flying under the radar some will do this group so good. QB KJ Costello, tight end Colby Parkinson and safety Paulson Adebo could be among the best in the country at their positions, but RB Bryce Love, star WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and a number of key offensive linemen are gone. The Wildcats therefore look like a live ‘dog since they bring a streak of wins in eight consecutive true road games into this one and notched an upset of Pac-12 favorite Utah in the Holiday Bowl in their most recent outing. If a talented defense can keep Costello from finding a rhythm, they’ll limit the burden facing Clemson transfer Hunter Johnson, who will likely start ahead of senior TJ Green as Northwestern attempts to replace four-year starter Clayton Thorson, who owns most school passing records.

Virginia Tech at Boston College (-4.5/58.5), 4 p.m. ET, ACCN: The ACC is putting a few of its teams up against each other this opening weekend and has a beauty of a matchup here. Legendary Hokies defensive coordinator Bud Foster is beginning his final season before retiring and has to worry about how he’s going to contain RB A.J. Dillon, considered one of the league’s top backs alongside Clemson’s Travis Etienne. After a horrible season stopping the run, this will be a great opportunity to see whether a group that returns most guys up front can improve and key a resurgence after a rare losing season in Blacksburg. VA Tech QB Ryan Willis threw 24 TD passes last season after transferring in from Kansas and will take aim at a BC secondary that lost a ton of talent. With Dillon likely to be the focal point of the Hokies’ defensive attention, Eagles QB Anthony Brown will play x-factor given the opportunities that should become available. He’s 1-1 against Virginia Tech, beating them in Blacksburg last season.

Syracuse (-18.5/68) at Liberty, 6 p.m. ET: The Flames moved up to the FBS level last season and blew out Old Dominion 52-10 in finishing 5-1 at home, so this isn’t exactly a gimme for the Orange. With Turner Gill retiring, former Ole Miss head coach Hugh Freeze was hired to help capitalize on the presence of Buckshot Calvert, who threw for over 3,000 yards last season. The Flames saw Auburn transfer Malik Willis get denied immediate eligibility by the NCAA, removing a major wrinkle from Freeze’s toolbox and lightening the load for Syracuse defensive coordinator Brian Ward. Offensively, the Orange will unleash Tommy DeVito as a full-time starting QB after he gained experience behind gutsy dual-threat Eric Dungey, Dino Babers’ first conductor to the high-octane circus that is the SU attack, which helped average 40.2 points last season.

Saturday Night's Essentials
Tony Mejia

Here’s a look at what must be considered before wagering on Saturday's slate in all FBS vs. FBS matchups:

Primetime Matchups

SMU at Arkansas State (-2.5/56.5), 7 p.m. ET: Mustangs head coach Sonny Dykes didn’t reach a bowl with the school’s all-time leading passer, Ben Hicks, who transferred to Arkansas after learning his job wouldn’t be guaranteed and should start there. Former Longhorns starter Shane Buechele will start and has an impressive receiving corps that should put up numbers and will look to match the production the RedWolves should come up with through impressive WRs Kirk Merritt and Dahu Green. An inexperienced line needs to buy time for QB Logan Bonner, who takes over for reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year Justice Hansen. Veteran head coach Blake Anderson has taken a leave of absence due to the unfortunate death of his wife less than two weeks ago. New defensive coordinator David Duggan will fill in as the interim.

Middle Tennessee State at Michigan (-34.5/54.5), 7:30 p.m. ET, BTN: Jim Harbaugh has won 10 games in three of the last four seasons but has nonetheless not lived up to expectations. He’s kept exceptional defensive coordinator Don Brown but has rehauled the offense, bringing in Alabama co-coordinator Josh Gattis to install a no-huddle spread that will hopefully get the most out of Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson, who came up short in the Wolverines’ biggest games. Although RB Karan Higdon is now with the Texans, there is still plenty of offensive talent that includes a loaded line expected to win most battles up front. The Blue Raiders arrive with a new quarterback since head coach Rick Stockstill’s son Brent, who threw for over 10,000 yards, graduated. He won’t tip his hand as to who will start, but sophomores Asher O’Hara and Chase Cunningham have experience in the system and will likely both see time.

Miami (OH) at Iowa (-22/47), 7:30 p.m. ET, FS1: The Hawkeyes have won 16 of 18 home openers but did lose to a MAC school the last time they were upset, falling to Northern Illinois in ’13. With Nate Stanley back at QB, hopes are high that this group can compete for another Big Ten title if it can rebuild its defensive line with around standout pass-rusher AJ Epenesa. Tight ends TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant, both Top-20 NFL Draft picks, must also be replaced. The Redhawks are replacing long-time QB Gus Ragland and will be on the road against a disciplined team, so Chuck Martin will have his work cut out for him after not finishing with a losing record for the first time in his five-year tenure last season.

Georgia Southern at LSU (-27.5/52.5), 7:30 p.m. ET, SEC: The Eagles won 10 games last season after losing 10 and should be able to compete for a Sun Belt title given the offensive line they’ve got returning and the fact QB Shai Werts to run the show. A triple-option attack doesn’t figure to do well against LSU’s monstrous defensive front, especially when you consider they’ve had weeks to prepare, but the Tigers could get caught looking ahead to next week’s visit to Austin to battle Texas in the game all eyes will be on. QB Joe Burrow will have a new offense to run with a host of receivers expected to get touches and freshman RB John Emery is likely to be the future and the truth, but it remains to be see how much Ed Oregeron is willing to put on film with next week’s road trip being what it is.

Georgia (-22.5/57.5) at Vanderbilt, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN: Vandy is still seeking its first winning season under Derek Mason but has beaten Tennessee three straight years and reached a bowl in two of those seasons. RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, WR Kalija Lipscomb and TE Jared Pinkney are among the nation’s best at their positions, but being able to seriously threaten the visiting ‘Dawgs hinges on QB play. Ball State grad transfer Riley Neal and dual-threat Deuce Wallace will look to move it against a fearsome defense. The Commodores have been pretty solid defensively over the past few years but have a lot of talent to replace, which gives UGA QB Jake Fromm and RB D’Andre Swift a great chance to put up gaudy numbers. Left tackle Andrew Thomas may be the first non-QB drafted next April. Head coach Kirby Smart lost to the ‘Dores 17-16 in his first season but has beat them twice since by a combined margin of 86-27.

Virginia (-2.5/46.5) at Pittsburgh, 7:30 p.m. ET, ACC: This would be a pick’em if not for the fact UVa closed last season so strong. Apparently oddsmakers forgot the Panthers won last season’s meeting 23-13 and haven’t lost to the Cavaliers since 2014. Bronco Mendenhall will want to get even, but he’s lost multiple key defensive players that helped shut out South Carolina in the Belk Bowl and also saw top receiver Olamide Zaccheaus and 1,000-yard rusher Jordan Ellis graduate. QB Bryce Perkins is back for his senior year. Virginia has dropped its last three road openers but is hoping to take advantage of the fact Pitt lost two 1,000-yard rushers and its best big-play receiver. Junior QB Kenny Pickett is prone to inconsistency but has a QB whisperer in place with veteran coach Mark Whipple on staff. This one could come down to field position and special teams, which favor Pitt given the presence of stud returner Maurice Ffrench and kicker Alex Kessman.

Missouri (-16.5/54) at Wyoming, 7:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN: QB Kelly Bryant didn’t get his championship ring despite starting four games at Clemson last season, but he’s looking to resurface and pick up some hardware and increase his draft profile in the SEC by filling standout Drew Lock’s shoes. There are certainly a ton of weapons and after back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since reaching consecutive league title games in ’13 and ’14, but this first month looks tricky. This appears to be a trap game given the altitude in Laramie and a well-disciplined Cowboys team waiting to pull a major home upset after falling to Oregon and Washington State when they came through town. Wyoming lost to Mizzou 40-13 in Columbia last season but feel good about the development of redshirt freshman Sean Chambers, who has a little Josh Allen.

Oregon at Auburn (-3.5/55), 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC: This is the game set to captivate the nation’s attention unless there’s a high-profile upset. The Ducks welcome back QB Justin Herbert, who would’ve been a first-round pick but opted to return to try and become more polished. He won’t have top target Dillon Mitchell back and will be looking for targets to step up and help move the ball against an experienced Auburn secondary. The Tigers may have the nation’s defensive line and Oregon is loaded up front, so the battle up front should be tremendous. Finally, there’s true freshman QB Bo Nix making his debut as he attempts to ensure Gus Malzahn sees an eighth year on the Plains. The son of former Auburn standout Patrick Nix is considered the real deal. We’ll find out whether that’s true immediately.

Louisiana Tech at Texas (-20/55), 8 p.m. ET, LHN: Pulling a Sugar Bowl upset of Georgia in January’s Sugar Bowl to pull off the school’s first 10-game win season since ’09 means Texas is back right? The Longhorns won’t be able to answer that question until next week’s home date with LSU, which means we probably won’t see much out of their bag of tricks as they try to get past the visiting Bulldogs and get to next week. Keontay Ingram will play coming off a bone bruise but freshmen Jordan Whittington and true freshman Roschon Johnson, a highly-rated QB, will get carries. Sam Ehlinger, a Heisman frontrunner if he indeed can bring Texas back, has a lot of receiving options. La Tech HC Skip Holtz called him Tebow-like in his impact and is 1-12 against power-fives, but he’s 7-4 ATS over the past five years, beating Illinois outright in a bowl game. QB J’Mar Smith is a veteran who threw for 330 on LSU last season and has an excellent primary target to work with in junior Adrian Hardy. If Texas is too vanilla, veteran defensive coordinator Bob Diaco may find a way to keep this closer than expected.

Late-night Snacks

New Mexico State at Washington State (-31.5/64.5), 10 p.m. ET, Pac-12: Replacing Gardner Minshew has been the big story in Pullman since top candidates Anthony Gordon and Gage Gubrud staged one great battle to fill Mike Leach’s vacancy. Gordon won but Guburd, a grad transfer from FCS power Eastern Washington, will also get time. That should be the case here so long as the Cougs handle their business on defense and are able to work on their precision passing game with little game pressure. The visiting Aggies are in their second season back in the Indy ranks and get Alabama next week, so it’s unlikely head coach Doug Martin will be playing his regulars trying to earn a backdoor cover late if this is a blowout. If it’s not, it means sophomore Josh Adkins has found a way to generate points against a legitimate defense, something the Aggies struggled with last season. Baylor grad transfer WR Tony Nicholson will be a top target.

Fresno State at USC (-13.5/52/5), 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN: Jeff Tedford’s Bulldogs crushed UCLA last season and handled Arizona State in the Las Vegas Bowl the last time they took the field, so the Trojans can’t possibly come into this overconfident. Of course, most of the guys responsible for the success Tedford has enjoyed in his return to coaching (22-6 SU) are gone, so we’ll see whether he’s had enough to coach up a new group in order to improve to 3-1 against the Pac-12 with Fresno. Jorge Reyna takes over for Marcus McMaryion and is familiar with the system but won’t have a target like KeeSean Johnson to deal with since he’ll have a huge role alongside Kyler Murray in Arizona. USC has a lot of young talent that is projected to reach the next level and will be looking to try and wipe the stench of last season’s 5-7 disaster off them. Sophomore QB J.T. Daniels has Clay Helton’s employment in his hands and has reportedly looked more decisive in camp.

Week 1 Upset Alerts
By Matt Blunt

After these pieces became highly popular last year, we had to bring them back for the 2019 college football season, one that is about 48 hours from really getting going. Not only were these underdog pieces popular, they also ended up turning a profit in the end, going 22-18 ATS, although the bulk of that damage was done thanks to the highly successful run backing 20+ underdogs.

Hopefully we can find a bit more balance in terms of projecting ATS winners in the smaller underdog ranges, as chances are a 11-2 ATS run with the 20+ underdogs won't happen again. The goal is to always improve and keep producing winners, and hopefully that continues as these pieces pop up every week as the college football season goes on.

The first full opening week always brings a plethora of 20+ underdogs as late August-early September is still great for the cupcake business in college football for those teams that prefer to indulge in that practice still. The really good teams are realizing that they need quality non-conference wins on their resume as well, so there is some abandonment of loading up a team's early schedule with FCS and much weaker FBS teams, but non-conference time in college football brings plenty of significant chalk, and bettors better be able to back a few of these hefty underdogs because they do cover spreads.

So let's get right to this year's opening underdogs, as we may be a month or two away from “MACtion” but it is the MAC Conference that gets the bulk of the spotlight out of the gate this year.
Upset Alert #1: Underdogs in the +1 to +9 range
YTD: 0-0 SU; 0-0 ATS

Ole Miss (+5.5) vs Memphis
The Memphis Tigers should be a player again in the AAC when all is said and done, but even against an Ole Miss team that's in a bit of a transitional year with their highly talented WR core moving on and a freshman QB, this is still a step up in class in competition level for Memphis.

That's not to say the Tigers aren't ready for it, but this is a team that couldn't take advantage of beating UCF last year without their starting QB, and defensively there is still a lot to be desired with the Tigers. Mississippi is still an SEC team with eight returning on defense. SEC defenses are known to be stout in non-conference play no matter who the SEC team actually is, and it's that physicality that I'm not sure Memphis will be ready for out of the gates.

The market has already pushed this line down to +5,5 after opening at +6 and currently showing a healthy majority backing the Memphis Tigers as well. That's the first sign that this number might be too high and/or bettors are discrediting a rebuilding Mississippi team too much. As a program, Memphis is on a 1-9-1 ATS run against SEC foes which also suggests that facing any SEC opponent is a step up in class Memphis has struggled with for years now.

If I took away the team names and just told you that the SEC team was catching 5+ points on the road against an AAC team, chances are many would be looking to take the points with the SEC. Obviously it's not as simple as that as the individual teams do matter, but Ole Miss deserves more respect coming out of the gate, and hopefully the end result is as simple as backing the team from the much better conference.
Upset Alert #2: Underdogs in the +10 to +19 range
YTD: 0-0 SU; 0-0 ATS

Toledo +12 vs Kentucky
I touched on a possible reason for fading Kentucky this week given the struggles the school has had in season openers the past few years earlier in the week here, and that's always a nice piece to add to the puzzle of this play as well.

But similar to people potentially sleeping on Ole Miss and how good (or more specifically, won't be as bad) they are, Toledo is a team that should make plenty of noise in the MAC, and Kentucky's got their own transitional period to deal with on the team this year.

Kentucky QB Terry Wilson will be called upon to be a much better passer from the outset this season, as there will be no more heavy reliance on Benny Snell out of the backfield. The Wildcats defense will still be the strength of this team, but that could easily take a step back too, as it's still just Week 1 remember and it's going to take some time for this Kentucky team to develop and reach it's full potential.

Toledo is a team that's loaded with veteran, returning experience basically across the board on offense, as there are 7 returning starters on offense for them – including their QB Mitchell Guadagni returning from injury – and all of them are seniors. That type of experience will serve Toledo well in going into Kentucky on Saturday, and with the market move already on Toledo in a similar fashion to what we've seen on Ole Miss – majority backing Kentucky, spread moved Toledo's way from +13.5 to +12 – this is another underdog move worth following.
Upset Alert #3: Underdogs in the +20 and above range
YTD: 0-0 ATS

Miami (Ohio) +21.5 vs Iowa
The theme basically remains the same here, as I'm not ready to believe in an Iowa team to win by more than 3 TD's out of the gate, as this is a program that doesn't seemingly blowout anyone.

Iowa enters the year ranked in the Top 25, and as part of the highly intriguing Big 10 conference, it will be interesting to see where Iowa's season ultimately shakes out. But I'd venture a guess that they won't end up ranked when all is said and done, even if they do avoid some potential powerhouses in Michigan State and Ohio State on the season.

But this game against Miami (Ohio) is one right before Big 10 play essentially begins for the Hawkeyes with Rutgers coming to town next week. There really is no looking past Miami Ohio in terms of looking ahead to Rutgers, but every conference game is going to be critical in the Big 10 for programs that believe they've got a shot at winning the conference, so there is always the notion that Iowa could build a big lead early here and then put things on cruise control to stay healthy going into next week. Covering through that backdoor is a big part of these 20+ underdogs hitting, and I expect that door to be open through the entirety of this one.