Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites.
NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Bowl Season
December 26
Quick Lane Bowl (@ Detroit)
Bowling Green vs Minnesota (-3.5)
Bowling Green (7-5)
— Bowling Green won five of its last six games.
— Last eight games, Bowling Green has a +13 turnover ratio.
— Falcons have played only two games decided by less than 10 points.
— Falcons won four of their last five games away from home.
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 75 starts back on offensive line, are expected to improve.
— junior QB Bazelak started 29 games at Missouri/Indiana.
— Falcons are 16-10-1 ATS in last 27 games as an underdog.
— BG is 3-3 ATS this year in games with a single digit spread.
— over is 4-1 in their last five games.
— Bowling Green lost four of its last five bowl games (1-4 ATS)
— This is Falcons’ first winning season since 2015.
— Last year, Bowling Green (-6.5) lost this bowl 30-27 to Pitt.
— MAC non-conference underdogs are 16-14 ATS.
Minnesota (5-7)
— Gophers are somehow in a bowl, despite their 5-7 record.
— Minnesota lost its last four games, giving up 35.3 ppg.
— Gophers are 2-5 ATS as a favorite this year.
— In his career, Fleck is 5-2 SU in bowls.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 49 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB started five games last year.
— This year, Minnesota is 3-5 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— under Fleck, Minnesota is 22-20-1 ATS as a favorite.
— under is 4-2 in their last six games.
— Gophers won their last six bowls, were underdog in three of them.
— Minnesota won this bowl in 2015/2018.
— Big 14 non-conference favorites are 11-14 ATS this year.
— Two years ago, Bowling Green (+31) upset Minnesota, 14-10.
— Underdogs are 6-3 ATS in last nine Quick Lane Bowls.
— since 2013, MAC teams are 2-4 ATS in this bowl.
— Last two years, MAC teams are 8-7 ATS vs Big 14 opponents.
First Responder Bowl (@ Dallas)
Texas State (-4) vs Rice
Texas State (7-5)
— This is Texas State’s first-ever bowl; they’ll be excited.
— Texas State lost three of last five games, after a 5-2 start.
— Bobcats are 6-0 when they score 35+ points, 1-5 when they don’t.
— Bobcats (+27) stunned Baylor 42-31 in September.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 94 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB started 3 games at Auburn, also played at LSU
— Bobcats are 2-3 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— Texas State is 2-4 ATS as a favorite this year.
— Texas State is 3-4 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games.
— TSU’s coach was 12-2 LY at I-AA Incarnate Word.
— Sun Belt non-conference favorites are 9-6 ATS this year.
Rice (6-6)
— Rice won its two games, to become bowl eligible
— Owls are 5-0 when they allow 21 or less points.
— Rice gave up 30+ points in all its losses this season.
— under Bloomgren, Rice is 28-19 ATS as an underdog (5-1 TY).
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 94 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has completed 63.6% of his passes, thrown 15 TD’s, 5 INT’s.
— This year, Rice is 4-2 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Rice is minus-5 in turnovers this year (minus-13 last year)
— Last three Rice games stayed under the total.
— Rice got to a bowl LY, its first bowl since 2014.
— Owls are 3-2 SU in their last five bowls.
— AAC underdogs are 10-18 ATS in non-league games.
— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— since 2013, favorites are 5-3-1 ATS in this bowl.
— since 2020, Sun Belt teams are 14-6 ATS vs AAC opponents (6-3 TY)
Guaranteed Rate Bowl (@ Phoenix)
Kansas vs UNLV
Kansas (8-4)
— Jayhawks split their last eight games, after a 4-0 start.
— Five of their last six games were decided by 7 or less points.
— Kansas gave up 31+ points in three of four losses.
— Jayhawks are 7-1 when they give up 30 or less points.
— Last three games, Jayhawks ran ball for 251 yards/game.
— 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 133 starts back on offensive line; four starters are back
— junior QB has started 13 games.
— under Leipold, Kansas is 6-4 ATS as a favorite.
— In his career, Leipold is 2-2 ATS in bowl games.
— Kansas is 5-1 ATS in last six non-league games.
— three of last four Kansas games stayed under the total.
— Kansas was 6-7 LY, going to their first bowl since 2008.
— Jayhawks won three of their last four bowl games.
— Big X non-conference favorites are 10-13 ATS.
UNLV (9-4)
— Rebels are in their first bowl game since 2013.
— UNLV’s last bowl win was in 2000.
— UNLV lost its last two games, giving up 37-44 points.
— Rebels gave up 35-31-37-44 points in their four losses.
— Last three games, UNLV gave up 292.7 rushing yards/game.
— Rebels are 3-2 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line.
— frosh QB has completed 63% of passes (14 TD’s, 8 INT)
— UNLV is 5-1 ATS as an underdog this year.
— Over is 8-3 in their last eleven games.
— Mountain West non-conference underdogs are 16-9 ATS.
— Coach Odom is 0-2 as a head coach in bowls.
— These teams haven’t met since 2003.
— Average total in this bowl the last four times, 33.5.
— Favorites covered four of last five Guaranteed Rate Bowls.
December 27
Military Bowl (@ Annapolis, MD)
Virginia Tech (-8.5) vs Tulane
Virginia Tech (6-6)
— Tech won four of last six games, after a 2-4 start.
— Hokies scored 30+ points in wins, 17 or less in 5 of 6 losses.
— Tech is 5-1 ATS this season as a favorite.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 53 starters back on offensive line.
— soph QB Drones completed 58.3% of passes (15 TDs, 3 INT’s)
— TY, Hokies are 5-5 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— Under Fry, Tech is 2-6 ATS in non-ACC games.
— Over is 6-2 in Hokies’ last six games.
— Hokies lost their last four bowls, giving up 39 ppg.
— Tech’s last bowl win was in 2016.
— ACC non-conference favorites are 13-10 ATS.
Tulane (11-2)
— Tulane’s coach bolted for the $$$ to Houston.
— Tulane is 10-1 in its last ten games since 37-20 loss to Ole Miss.
— Tulane was held to 20-14 points in its two losses.
— This is only 2nd time this year Green Wave is an underdog.
— Green Wave is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog.
— Tulane has four wins by 7 or fewer points.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 130 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 33 starts
— Under is 11-1 in Tulane’s last 12 games.
— Tulane is 3-1 SU/ATS in its last four bowls.
— Green Wave (+2) beat USC 46-45 in Cotton Bowl LY.
— AAC non-conference underdogs are 10-18 ATS.
— Favorites covered three of last four Military Bowls.
— since 2014, ACC teams are 4-2 SU in this bowl.
— Last three years, ACC teams are 11-1 SU/ATS vs AAC opponents.
Duke’s Mayo Bowl (@ Charlotte, NC)
West Virginia (-6.5) vs North Carolina
West Virginia (8-4)
— WVU won four of its last five games.
— WVU ran ball for 226+ yards in five of last six games.
— In their losses, Mountaineers allowed 38-41-48-59 points.
— WVU is 8-0 when it allows less than 38 points.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 133 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB started two games last year.
— WVU is 4-2 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— WVU is 11-9 ATS last 20 games as a favorite (3-3 TY).
— over is 6-1 in WVU’s last seven games.
— since 2016, West Virginia is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in bowl games
— Big X non-conference favorites are 10-13 ATS.
North Carolina (8-4)
— Tar Heels’ QB quit the team, to prepare for NFL Draft.
— Backup QB threw six passes this year, not ideal.
— UNC lost four of last six games, after a 6-0 start.
— UNC gave up 436+ TY in five of last six I-A games.
— Carolina gave up 31+ points in its last six I-A games.
— Tar Heels were underdog in only one game TY (L 31-20 at Clemson)
— Last five years, UNC is 7-6 ATS as an underdog.
— Last nine games, UNC is +8 in turnovers.
— 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 137 starts back on offensive line.
— over is 4-2-1 in their last seven games
— Carolina went bowling last four years, lost last three.
— Mack Brown is 15-11 SU in bowls, 5-5 at Carolina.
— ACC non-conference underdogs are 7-11 ATS.
— These teams haven’t met since 2008.
— Underdogs won/covered 4 of last 5 Mayo Bowls.
— ACC teams lost the last four Mayo Bowls.
— since 2019, AAC teams are 12-7 ATS vs Big X opponents.
Holiday Bowl (@ San Diego)
Louisville (-7.5) vs USC
Louisville (10-3)
— Louisville lost its last two games, after a 10-1 start.
— Cardinals gave up 38 points in both losses (Pitt/Kentucky)
— Louisville has five wins by 7 or fewer points.
— Louisville scored 31+ points in four of last five games.
— Cardinals are 3-6 ATS as a favorite TY.
— Cardinals are 4-5 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 150 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 12 games at Cal last year.
— In his career, Brohm is 32-36 ATS as a favorite.
— three of last four Louisville games went over the total.
— Coach Brohm is 4-1 SU in bowl games.
— ACC favorites are 13-10 ATS out of conference.
— Cardinals went bowling five of last seven years (2-3 SU).
— Louisville was in ACC title game for first time this year.
— Louisville QB Plummer threw for 406 yards LY in 41-35 loss at USC, while he was playing for the Cal Bears.
USC (7-5)
— USC’s top two QB’s quit team; they’ve got only one scholarship QB.
— USC lost five of last six games, giving up 42.4 ppg in last eight games.
— Soph backup QB Miller is 23-32/309 passing this season.
— USC is 0-5 ATS TY in games with spread of 10 or less points.
— In his career, Riley is 5-2 ATS as an underdog (1-2 TY)
— They’ve already fired the defensive coordinator
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 95 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB has started 21 games, was favored to win Heisman Trophy.
— USC is 1-8 against spread in its last nine games.
— over is 7-2 in their last eight games; that was with Williams at QB.
— USC is 1-4 SU in last five bowls (favored in 3 of 5 games)
— Pac-12 underdogs are 3-3 ATS out of conference.
— These teams haven’t met in this century.
— Did mention above that Plummer played against USC last year.
— Underdogs covered six of last eight Holiday Bowls.
— Pac-12 teams are 2-6 SU/0-8 ATS in last eight Holiday Bowls.
— since 2014, ACC teams are 11-4-1 ATS vs Pac-12 opponents.
Texas Bowl (@ Houston)
Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M (-2.5)
Oklahoma State (9-4)
— Okla State won 7 of last 9 games, after a 2-2 start.
— OSU allowed 33-34-45-49 points in its four losses.
— Okla State was 7-3 in Big X games (average total, 60.3).
— Cowboys are 5-0 scoring 30+ points, 4-4 scoring less than 30.
— Cowboys are minus-6 in turnovers in losses, +10 in wins.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 129 starts back on offensive line; improvement is expected.
— senior QB Bowman has 5,329 passing yards and 34 passing TD’s in his career.
— He came to OSU after playing at Texas Tech/Michigan.
— Cowboys are 4-2 ATS as an underdog this year
— OSU is 6-3 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— In his career, Gundy is 35-30-2 ATS as an underdog.
— Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.
— Cowboys are 3-2 in last five bowls, winning by 5-3-2 points.
— Big X underdogs are 4-3 ATS out of conference.
Texas A&M (7-5)
— A&M is 3-4 in last seven games, after a 4-1 start.
— A&M fired its coach in November.
— A&M is 0-3 TY in games decided by 11 or less points.
— Aggies are 7-3 when scoring 27+ points (0-2 score less than 27).
— Aggies are 7-1 giving up 22 or less points (0-4 giving up 26+).
— 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 91 starts back on offensive line.
— 3rd-string soph QB is 27-42/410 passing (4 TD’s, no INTs)
— A&M is 2-3-1 ATS in games with single digit spread.
— A&M is 5-2 ATS as a favorite this year.
— over is 3-1 in their last four games.
— A&M won its last three bowls, scoring 52-24-41 points.
— Before 2012, these teams were rivals in the Big X.
— Oklahoma State won four of last five series games (last meeting, 2019)
— Aggies (-4.5) beat OSU 24-21 in 2019 Texas Bowl.
— Underdogs covered four of last five Texas Bowls.
NCAAF
Bowl Season
Trend Report
December 26
Bowling Green @ Minnesota
Bowling Green
Bowling Green is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Bowling Green is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Texas State @ Rice
Texas State
Texas State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Rice
Rice is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Rice's last 6 games
Kansas @ Nevada-Las Vegas
Kansas
Kansas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
Nevada-Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nevada-Las Vegas's last 5 games
Nevada-Las Vegas is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games
December 27
Virginia Tech @ Tulane
Virginia Tech
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Virginia Tech's last 5 games
Virginia Tech is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Tulane
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tulane's last 5 games
Tulane is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
North Carolina @ West Virginia
North Carolina
North Carolina is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
North Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
West Virginia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of West Virginia's last 7 games
West Virginia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Louisville @ Southern California
Louisville
Louisville is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
Southern California
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Southern California's last 20 games
Southern California is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
Texas A&M @ Oklahoma State
Texas A&M
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Texas A&M's last 9 games when playing Oklahoma State
Texas A&M is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Texas A&M
Oklahoma State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas A&M