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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 1
Thursday’s game
North Carolina (-2) @ Minnesota
North Carolina was 9-5/8-5 SU the last two years.
Tar Heels have 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Tar Heels have 59 returning starts on OL, 49 from one guy.
Junior QB Johnson started 22 games, at LSU/Texas A&M.
Last four years, UNC is 2-9-1 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Mack Brown is 43-49-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Since 2019, Tar Heels are 11-10-1 ATS in non-league games.
Last five years, Carolina is 9-15-1 ATS in road games.
Gophers were 6-7 last year, their worst season since 2017.
Gophers have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Minnesota has 70 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Brosmer started 36 games at I-AA New Hampshire.
Under Fleck, Minnesota is 7-7-1 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Fleck is 9-12-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Fleck, Minnesota is 20-16-1 ATS in non-league games.
Last three years, Minnesota is 24-15 SU, 3-0 in bowl games.
North Carolina (-7) beat Minnesota at home 31-13 last year.
UNC outgained Gophers 519-303, throwing for 414 yards.
Last four years, Big 18 teams are 14-8 ATS vs ACC opponents.
Friday’s games
Temple @ Oklahoma (-42)
Last four years, Temple is 10-33 SU, 15-28 ATS
Owls have 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Owls have 46returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Simon started 2 games at Rutgers in 2022.
Last three years, Temple is 3-12 ATS as road underdogs.
Under Drayton, Owls are 8-12 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2017, Temple is 12-15 ATS in non-conference games.
Last two years, Temple was minus-31 in turnovers, in 24 games.
Since 2015, Sooners are 94-24 SU (16-10 under Venables)
Oklahoma has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Sooners have 114 returning starts on the offensive line.
QB Gabriel bolted to Oregon; Oklahoma is very inexperienced under center.
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 8-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2015, Sooners are 34-21 ATS as a home favorite.
They’ve been favored in 126 of their last 131 games.
Sooners are 10-4 ATS in last 14 non-conference games.
These teams haven’t met since 1942.
Florida Atlantic @ Michigan State (-14)
Last three years, FAU was 5-7/5-7/4-8 SU (15-20-1 ATS)
FAU has 4 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Owls have only 22 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Fancher started 17 games at Marshall.
Last two years, FAU is 4-1 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Herman is 12-6 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2018, Owls are 9-14-1 ATS in non-conference games.
In his career, Herman is 19-8 ATS in non-conference games.
Last two years, Spartans went 5-7/4-8, then fired the coach.
New coach Smith comes from Oregon State, his alma mater.
MSU has 5 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
Spartans have 31 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Chiles was a sub at Oregon State LY, playing every third series.
Last three years, MSU is 7-3 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Smith is 15-3 ATS as a home favorite.
Last three years, Spartans are 8-2 ATS in non-league games.
Michigan State has its Big 18 opener next week, at Maryland.
These teams haven’t met since 2011.
Since 2016, AAC teams are 18-12 ATS vs Big 18 teams.
Western Michigan @ Wisconsin (-24)
WMU was 5-7/4-8 last two years, after a successful run before that.
Broncos have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Broncos have 92 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Wolff has 27 career starts, 22 of them at Old Dominion.
Last four years, WMU is 6-5 ATS as road underdogs.
Since 2014, Broncos are 24-18 ATS as a road underdog.
Last five years, WMU 10-8 ATS in non-conference games.
Last five years, Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their first lined game.
Last two years, Wisconsin was 7-6/7-6, their worst years since 2008.
Badgers have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Badgers have 102 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Van Dyke started 25 games at Miami.
Since 2018, Badgers are 15-22 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Fickell is 32-36-1 ATS as a favorite.
Since 2014, Badgers are 24-15 ATS in non-conference games.
Last five years, Wisconsin is 3-2 ATS in their first lined game.
These teams haven’t met since the 2016 Cotton Bowl.
Western Michigan playing in the Cotton Bowl was unusual.
Since 2019, Big 18 teams are 24-12 ATS vs MAC opponents.
TCU (-9.5) @ Stanford
TCU was 5-7 last year, their fourth losing season in five years.
The one winning year was 2022; they lost national title game 65-7 to Georgia.
TCU has 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Horned Frogs have 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Hoover started six games last year.
Under Dykes, TCU is 11-6-1 ATS as a favorite.
In his career, Dykes is 13-17-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Horned Frogs are 7-2-1 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite.
Since 2018, TCU 11-7-1 ATS in non-league games.
Last three years, Stanford was 3-9/3-9/3-9 SU, 9-26 ATS
Cardinal has 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Stanford has 88 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Daniels started 10 games last year.
Last three years, Stanford is 8-20 ATS as an underdog.
Last three years, Stanford is 3-11 ATS as a home underdog.
Stanford is 4-11 ATS in its last fifteen home games.
Cardinal is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 non-league games.
These teams haven’t met since 2017.