Tuesday 11/17/20 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL & NCAAF games
College Football Odds Week 12: Opening lines and sharp money
Patrick Everson
Wideout Whop Philyor and No. 10 Indiana hope their surprising season continues Saturday at No. 3 Ohio State. But oddsmakers aren't seeing it, as the Buckeyes are 20.5-point favorites in the Big Ten clash.
College football odds for Week 12 are on the betting board and getting action, with a few games of note. At the top of the list, perhaps surprisingly, is upstart and undefeated Indiana traveling to the Horseshoe to face fellow unbeaten Ohio State.
FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on college football Week 12 opening lines, early line movement, sharp money and public betting for this week's matchups.
These are the current College football Week 12 odds for the premier games on the schedule.
UCLA at (13) Oregon odds
Opening line
Oregon -14.5, Over/Under 64.5
Why the line moved
The Ducks opened -14.5 at FanDuel and haven't budged through Monday night, meaning early action is probably light, considering that 71 percent of bets and 83 percent of money are on Oregon. The total is already up to 66.5, with 90 percent of bets and practically every dollar on the total running to the Over.
(7) Cincinnati at Central Florida odds
Opening line
Cincinnati -4.5, Over/Under 61.5
Why the line moved
This line is pinned at Cincinnati -4.5 Monday night, with no movement so far, although point-spread ticket count and money are both running well beyond 9/1 on the Bearcats. The total is seeing similar betting splits on the Over, but the number hasn't yet moved off 61.5.
(4) Clemson at Florida State Odds
Opening line
Clemson -31.5, Over/Under 67.5
Why the line moved
Trevor Lawrence returns from a bout with COVID-19, and that's led to three more points being added to this spread, with Clemson already up to -34.5. Seventy percent of early tickets and 88 percent of early dollars are on the Tigers. The total is down a point to 66.5, with 67 percent of bets on the Over, but 70 percent of money on the Under.
(10) Indiana at (3) Ohio State odds
Opening line
Ohio State -19.5, Over/Under 64.5
Why the line moved
It might be the Game of the Week in college football, and yet it's a hefty double-digit spread. The Buckeyes moved to -20.5 Sunday evening, and that's where the number is Monday night, with ticket count more than 6/1 and money beyond 3/1 on Ohio State. The total is stuck at 64.5, but early tickets and early money are running more than 9/1 on the Over.
(19) USC at Utah Odds
Opening line
Southern California -3.5, Over/Under 56.5
Why the line moved
The Trojans dropped a point to -2.5 Monday afternoon at FanDuel and are still there Monday night, despite 2/1 tickets and practically every early dollar on USC. The total is up a point to 57.5, with tickets 3/1 and, much like the spread, almost all the money on the Over.
(12) Wisconsin at (20) Northwestern odds
Opening line
Wisconsin -6.5, Over/Under 45.5
Why the line moved
Wisconsin is a mere 2-0, but the second of those games was last weekend's 49-11 boatracing of Michigan at the Big House. So it's no surprise to see the Badgers up to -8.5 Monday night at FanDuel, with tickets and money 9/1 on Wisconsin. The total went two points the other way, to 43.5, though tickets are 6/1 and money 3/1 on the Over.
Kentucky at (1) Alabama odds
Opening line
Alabama -29.5, Over/Under 57.5
Why the line moved
Alabama got an unplanned bye last week due to LSU dealing with COVID-19 issues. The initial move on this line was toward the big 'dog Kentucky, as 'Bama dipped to -28.5. On Monday night, the line is at Alabama -30.5 on two-way action, with the Crimson Tide taking 53 percent of bets and 54 percent of money. The total is up to 58.5, with ticket count nearly 4/1 and almost every dollar so far on the Over.
(5) Florida at Vanderbilt odds
Opening line
Florida -30.5, Over/Under 68.5
Why the line moved
The Gators are up a point to -31.5 at FanDuel on Monday night, with 71 percent of tickets and 80 percent of money on Florida. The total bounced around a bit early, from 68.5 to 66.5 and back to 68.5, with 72 percent of bets and 91 percent of money on the Over.
(14) Oklahoma State at (17) Oklahoma odds
Opening line
Oklahoma -9.5, Over/Under 58.5
Why the line moved
The Bedlam line is on the move early at FanDuel, down to Sooners -5.5 Monday night, though 56 percent of bets and 77 percent of dollars are landing on Oklahoma. The total moved from 58.5 to 60.5, then to 59.5, with ticket count and money both more than 9/1 on the Over.
Kansas State at (16) Iowa State odds
Opening line
Iowa State -7.5, Over/Under 49.5
Why the line moved
It's another Big 12 line making a big early move, though in this case, the number is stretching out, with Iowa State up to -11.5 at FanDuel. Through Monday night, tickets and money are both in the 3/1 range on the Cyclones. The total opened at 49.5 and hit 50.5 a couple of times, then headed the other way, and it's at 46.5 Monday night. Ticket count is 3/1 on the Under, and practically all the early money is on the Under, as well.
Tulane (5-4) @ Tulsa (4-1)
— Tulane won its last three games, scoring 38-38-38 points.
— Green Wave covered its last five games overall.
— Green Wave has 7 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Tulane has 92 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Green Wave’s senior QB has started 18 games.
— Tulane is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games as a road underdog, 1-1 TY.
— Tulsa won its last four games, with last two wins by 4-4 points.
— Golden Hurricane scored 34.5 ppg in its four wins, 7 in its loss.
— Golden Hurricane has 9 starters back on offense, 4 starters back on defense.
— Tulsa has 65 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Tulsa’s senior QB has 27 career starts.
— Since 2016, Tulsa is 8-6 ATS as a home favorite.
— Tulane won last three series games, by 34-7-12 points, scoring 41.3 ppg.
— Green Wave ran ball for 361.5 jyg in last four series games.
— Favorites covered 12 of last 13 series games.
323UTAH ST -324 WYOMING
UTAH ST is 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) in road games after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992.
325SYRACUSE -326 LOUISVILLE
LOUISVILLE is 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) in home games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game since 1992.
327PURDUE -328 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 39-23 ATS (13.7 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better since 1992.
329NEW MEXICO -330 AIR FORCE
AIR FORCE is 19-44 ATS (-29.4 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att. since 1992.
Tech Trends - Week 12
Bruce Marshall
TULANE at TULSA (ESPN, 7:30 p.m.)
Tulane has covered last five TY, now on 16-7 spread uptick since late 2018
Green Wave has won and covered last three in series
Road team 4-1 vs. line in Tulsa games TY (Tulsa 1-1 home)
Golden Hurricane 3-5 last seven vs. points as host.
Tech Edge: Tulane, based on team trends.
Friday, Nov. 20
SYRACUSE at LOUISVILLE (ESPN, 7:00 p.m.)
Cards coach Scott Satterfield 6-4 vs. line at home since last year
Home team has won and covered big last three in series
Cards have also won and covered in 5 of last 6 meetings
Tech Edge: Louisville, based on series trends.
PURDUE at MINNESOTA (Big Ten, 7:30 p.m.)
Purdue 8-3 spread uptick since late last year
Boilermakers have covered eight straight as a 'dog prior to NU last Saturday.
Gophers have won and covered 4 of last 5 meetings.
However. Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck 1-5-1 vs. spread last seven in regular season.
Tech Edge: Purdue, based on recent trends.
NEW MEXICO at AIR FORCE (FS1, 9:30 p.m.)
Lobos cocach Bob Davie had great spread success vs. Force the past 8 years, covering all but one of the games
Lone non-cover came in 2018
Winning three of five outright 2013-17.
Rocky Long (now Lobos DC) won all seven outright vs. Falcons while at SDSU.
UNM only 6-16 last 22 on board but has covered two in a row.
Tech Edge: New Mexico, based on extended trends.
Tulane vs. Tulsa Week 12 Odds
Jonathan Willis
The Golden Hurricane are flying high after last Saturday’s win over SMU.
Tulsa is undefeated (4-0) in the American, and this is likely the only team that has a chance to prevent Cincinnati from winning the AAC.
The last three games of the season won’t be easy though, starting this week when the Tulane Green Wave come to town.
Tulane has looked sharp the last few weeks, thanks to a much-improved defense.
Week 12 Matchup: American
Venue: Chapman Stadium
Location: Tulsa, Oklahoma
Date: Thursday, November 19, 2020
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Tulsa has been a solid investment for bettors this season, going 4-1 both straight up and against the spread. (AP)
Line Movements
Spread: Tulsa -5.5
Money-Line: Tulsa -240 Tulane +200
Total: 54.5
How to Handicap Tulane-Tulsa
Cancellations and postponements have led to Tulsa playing just five games this season. The Golden Hurricane were heavy underdogs in their first two games after going 4-8 in 2019, but they easily covered the spread against both Oklahoma State and UCF.
Tulsa’s defense held Chuba Hubbard under 100 rushing yards, and the Cowboys failed to pick up more than 300 total yards after Spencer Sanders was injured early.
Tulsa announced it was for real with a 34-26 upset of UCF in early October as a 20.5-point underdog. The Golden Hurricane held the Knights without a point in the final 25 minutes of the game, allowing the offense to overcome an 11-point halftime deficit.
They followed that up with wins over USF and East Carolina before last week’s big 28-24 win over SMU. Tulsa trailed 21-0 early in the second quarter, but Houston scored just three points after its start.
The Green Wave are one of the few teams to not have their schedule seriously impacted by COVID. Tulane has played nine games this season, and Willie Fritz hasn’t had to deal with any long layoffs.
This offense has been solid throughout the 2020 season. Tulane has scored at least 24 points in every game, and the Green Wave have put up at least 31 points in their last seven games since Michael Pratt took over for Keon Howard.
The defense has come alive over the last three weeks too, as Tulane has allowed just 12 PPG in easy wins and covers against Temple, East Carolina, and Army the last three weeks.
Betting Analysis – Green Wave
Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)
2020: 5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS, 6-2-1 O/U
Tulane has a gem in Pratt. The true freshman seized the reins from Howard, and this offense has looked much better from that point forward.
Pratt had accuracy issues in his first few games, failing to complete more than 50 percent of his passes in his first three appearances, but he has settled into the role. He has completed at least 57 percent of his passes in four straight games, and he is a dynamic runner in this offense.
Fritz loves to run the ball. The Green Wave are currently averaging 5.3 YPC and 224.8 YPG on the ground. The five leading rushers on this team are all averaging more than 5.5 YPC with Stephon Huderson and Cameron Carroll leading the way. Huderson is the big-play RB (6.6 YPC), while Carroll shines in short yardage (10 TDs).
Duece Watts has established himself as the go-to receiver for Pratt. He leads the team in every receiving category with 26 receptions for 448 yards (17.2 YPR) and five touchdowns. His twin brother Phat Watts is one of the other top options along with Jha’Quan Jackson.
The Green Wave were shredded by some good offenses in the middle of the season. They couldn’t stop Houston, SMU, or UCF, but they have looked much better in recent weeks. Tulane does a good job of stopping the run (3.3 YPC), but the pass defense has been abysmal (8.8 YPA).
Edge rusher Patrick Johnson has been a playmaker with 10 sacks and two forced fumbles on the year.
Betting Analysis - Golden Hurricane
2020: 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, 2-3 O/U
QB Zach Smith isn’t a world-beater, but he has been consistent over his four years with Tulsa. He is having the best season of his career as a senior, completing 61.5 percent of his passes for 8.0 YPA with 10 touchdowns and six interceptions. Smith isn’t much of a runner, so that puts a bit of a cap on the offense, but he doesn’t make a lot of poor throws either.
The loss of starting running back Shamari Brooks prior to the start of the season was a big blow for the Golden Hurricane. Sophomores Deneric Prince and T.K. Wilkerson has stepped up to fill the void though, teaming up to average 4.7 YPC.
Keylon Stokes and Josh Johnson are Smith’s two favorite options in the passing game. The Golden Hurricane don’t throw much though as Tulsa is averaging just 31.4 passes per game this season.
Tulsa’s defense has been very good. The Golden Hurricane are ranked 31st in defensive SP+, and that is the primary catalyst for their turnaround in 2020. Linebacker Zaven Collins is a potential AAC Defensive Player of the Year choice with four sacks, three interceptions, and two forced fumbles in five games.
Historically Speaking
Head-to-Head
Tulsa won 11 of its first 13 games against Tulane, but the Green Wave are on a three-game winning streak. They hammered the Golden Hurricane 62-28 for their biggest win in this series three years ago, and it’s been all Tulane since that point.
Last Meeting
Tulane gashed Tulsa on the ground when these teams met last season. The Green Wave ran the ball 46 times for 293 yards and three touchdowns in a 38-26 win over the Golden Hurricane.
Justin McMillan threw two interceptions, but Tulsa was only able to kick field goals despite the good field position those turnovers provided.
Notable Betting Trends
-- Tulane has covered five straight games
-- The favorite is 13-3 ATS in this series
-- The over is 5-1 in the last six games between these teams
Syracuse (1-7) @ Louisville (2-6)
— Syracuse lost its last five games, giving up 35.4 ppg. .
— Orangemen lost their three road games, by average of 33-12.
— Syracuse has 7 starters back on offense, 4 starters back on defense.
— Syracuse has 74 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Syracuse’s junior QB has started 19 games.
— Under Babers, Orangemen are 12-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Louisville lost six of its last seven games, giving up 42-31 points in last two games.
— Cardinals split four home games, beating WKU, Florida State.
— Louisville has 8 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Cardinals have 99 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Louisville has a junior QB with 27 starts.
— Cardinals are 20-29 ATS in last 49 games as a home dog, 2-0 TY.
— Louisville won eight of last ten series games.; they beat Syracuse 56-34 LY
— Syracuse lost their last five visits here, giving up 56-56 points in last two.
— Favorites covered last six series games.
Purdue (2-1) @ Minnesota (1-3)
— Purdue is off to a 2-1 start, winning only road game 31-24 at Illinois.
— Boilers lost 27-20 at home to Northwestern LW, running ball for only 2 yards.
— Purdue has 7 starters back on offense, 4 starters back on defense.
— Boilers have 74 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Purdue’s junior QB has started 19 games.
— Boilers are 12-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Minnesota lost three of their first four games.
— Gophers allowed 1,045 YR (261.3 ypg) in their first four games.
— Minnesota scored 85 points in its last two games.
— Minnesota has 9 starters back on offense, 4 starters back on defense.
— Gophers have 127 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Gophers have a junior QB with 23 starts.
— Since 2013, Minnesota is 10-6 ATS as a home underdog.
— Minnesota won six of last seven series games.
— Underdogs covered last four series games played here.
UMass (0-2) @ Florida Atlantic (4-1)
— UMass lost its first two games by a combined 92-10.
— Minutemen were outgained 929-381 in those games.
— UMass has 7 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Minutemen have 59 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UMass has been using multiple QB’s, with little success.
— Minutemen are 2-10-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
— FAU won four of its first five games, losing only road game 20-9 at Marshall.
— Owls allowed total of 28 points in their last three games.
— FAU has 6 starters back on offense, 3 starters back on defense.
— Owls have 54 returning starts on the offensive line.
— FAU has a junior QB with 30 career starts.
— Owls are 12-8-2 ATS in last 22 games as a home favorite.
— These teams haven’t met in the last five years.
New Mexico (0-3) @ Air Force (1-2)
— New Mexico lost its first three games, by 17-6-7 points.
— Lobos allowed 491.3 ypg in their first three games, 410.2 thru air.
— New Mexico has 8 starters back on offense, 4 starters back on defense.
— Lobos have 60 returning starts on the offensive line.
— New Mexico has a junior QB with 15 career starts.
— Lobos are 7-10 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.
— Air Force lost two of first three games; they haven’t played in three weeks.
— Falcons have run ball for 330 ypg in their three games.
— Air Force has 4 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Falcons have 48 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Air Force has a new QB who completed 13-26 passes in three games.
— Falcons are 6-4 ATS in last 10 games as a home favorite.
— Underdogs covered five of last six series games.
— Lobos covered three of last four visits to Air Force.