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Tech Trends - Week 15
Bruce Marshall
Week 15 of the College Football season kicks off on Thursday Dec. 10 and concludes on Saturday, Dec. 12.
We've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS matchups.
We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.
Thursday, Dec. 10
FLORIDA ATLANTIC at SOUTHERN MISS (CBSSN, 6:30 p.m.)
Even after Ga Southern loss, FAU 2-1 vs. line away TY for Taggart, now 7-2 vs. spread away from Boca Raton since LY.
USM has covered last two in 2020 but still 3-9 vs. line since late 2019.
Owls 6-1 “under” this season, USM “under” 5-1 last 6.
Tech Edge: FAU and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
PITT at GEORGIA TECH (FSN, 7:00 p.m.)
Pitt on 8-2 “over” run TY.
Panthers have won and covered last two in series, Tech on 12-5 over” run since early 2019.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Pitt, based on “totals” and team trends.
Friday, Dec. 11
UTEP at NORTH TEXAS (ESPN3, 6:00 p.m.)
After loss to La Tech, UNT now on 6-20 spread skid since mid 2018.
Home team has covered last four in series.
Tech Edge: Slight to UTEP, based on team trends.
CHARLOTTE at MARSHALL (CBSSN, 5:30 p.m.)
49ers no covers last four (0-3-1) after WKU loss on Sunday.
Herd 7-1 SU, 5-3 vs. line TY (3-3 at home vs. line).
Tech Edge: Slight to Marshall, based on team trends.
ARIZONA STATE at ARIZONA (ESPN, 7:00 p.m.)
Territorial Cup.
Sumlin on 4-12 spread skid since LY, though dog team has covered last four in series.
Tech Edge: Slight to ASU, based on team trends.
UTAH at COLORADO (FS1, 8:30 p.m.)
Karl Dorrell 4-0 SU and vs. line TY, while Whittingham 1-2 vs. line.
Utes have won and covered last four in series after CU covered first five after these schools joined the Pac in 2011.
Utes 7-2 vs. line last 9 as Pac-12 visitor.
Tech Edge: Slight to CU, based on current trends.
NEVADA vs. SAN JOSE STATE (CBSSN, 9:00 p.m.)
Pack 10-1 SU last 11 in series.
But Spartans on 14-4-1 spread run since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Slight to SJSU, based in recent trends.
Saturday, Dec. 12
WISCONSIN at IOWA (FS1, 3:30 p.m.)
Wiscy has won last four outright in series.
If Badgers a dog note 9-5 mark in role since 2015 for Chryst; if Iowa a dog 5-5-1 in role since 2017.
Tech Edge: Slight to Wiscy, based on series trends.
PURDUE at INDIANA (BTN, 3:30 p.m.)
Old Oaken Bucket!
Purdue no covers last 5 TY after 8-1 mark previous 9 vs. line.
IU 7-0 vs. line TY, and 14-3 last 16 vs. number since early 2019.
Boilermakers however have covered last 4 and 7 of last 9 Buckets.
Tech Edge: IU, based on recent trends.
MICHIGAN STATE at PENN STATE (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)
MSU 7-16 vs. line last 23 on board since late 2018, 2-4 vs. points this year for Tucker.
James Franklin 2-5 vs. line TY and has dropped last 8 vs. spread at Beaver Stadium, though Nittany Lions now on 2-game win and cover streak.
Tech Edge: Slight to Penn State, based on team trends.
RUTGERS at MARYLAND (BTN, 12:00 p.m.)
Schiano 4-3 vs. line TY, though Terps have won and covered 4 of last 5 in series (all pre-Schiano).
Tech Edge: Slight to Rutgers, based on recent trends.
APP STATE at GEORGIA SOUTHERN (ESPN3, 6:00 p.m.)
App State 2-9 vs. line TY, 2-10 last 12 on board.
Also no covers last five on road for App State.
GSU has won last two meetings as dog in each.
Tech Edge: Georgia Southern, based on team and recent series trends.
WESTERN MICHIGAN at BALL STATE (ESPN+, 12:00 p.m.)
WMU 4-1 SU, 3-2 vs. line TY.
Last four “over” in series.
Ball 4-6 vs. line last nine since late 2019, and 1-4 vs. line last five in Muncie, though Cards have won their last four outright in 2020.
Ball has covered last two meetings after Broncos covered all four from 2014-17.
Tech Edge: Slight to Ball State and “over,” based on recent and “totals” trends.
MIAMI-OHIO at BOWLING GREEN (ESPN3, 12:00 p.m.)
BGSU 4-12 vs. line since LY for Loeffler, Falcs also 1-3 SU and vs. line last four in series.
RedHawks 8-3 vs. spread last 11 since mid 2019.
Tech Edge: Miami-O, based on BGSU negatives.
AKRON at BUFFALO (CBSSN, 2:30 p.m.)
Akron 1-16 SU, 3-14 vs. line for Arth since LY but on one-game win streak!
Bulls 3-0-1 vs. line last four in series.
UB has covered last seven as host.
Tech Edge: Buffalo, based on team trends.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS at EASTERN MICHIGAN (ESPN3, 12:00 p.m.)
NIU 5-12 SU for Hammock since LY but better 9-8 vs. line.
Road team has covered last four meetings.
As good as Eagles have performed vs. spread on road, EMU only 2-8 vs. number last 10 at Ypsilanti.
Tech Edge: Slight to NIU, based on team and series trends.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN at TOLEDO (ESPN3, 3:00 p.m.)
McElwain 13-6 vs. spread since arriving at CMU in 2019, and has covered 6 of last 7 as visitor.
Chips’ pre-McElwain numbers not as relevant.
Rockets 3-2 SU and vs. line TY but on 3-8-1 spread skid since mid 2019.
Tech Edge: CMU, based on recent trends.
LSU at FLORIDA (ESPN, 7:00 p.m.)
Florida 9-1-1 vs. line last 11 at Swamp for Mullen since late 2018.
Orgeron 9-3 as dog since 2017 (1-2 TY).
Tech Edge: Florida, based on team trends.
NORTH CAROLINA at MIAMI-FLA (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)
Home team has covered last 3 in series, and UNC 4-1 SU and vs. line last five meetings.
Tech Edge: UNC, based on team and series trends.
VIRGINIA at VIRGINIA TECH (ACCN, 8:00 p.m.)
Last year, UVa won this game for the first time since 2003.
Bronco Mendenhall has won last 4 SU and covered last 5 in 2020, Cavs also on 13-2 “over” run.
VPI on 3-9 spread skid since late LY, also 8-4 “over” last 12 since late 2019.
Tech Edge: Virginia and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.
MINNESOTA at NEBRASKA (FS1, 12:00 p.m.)
Huskers just 5-12 vs. spread since 2019, 3-6 last nine at Lincoln.
Though home team has won and covered last four meetings.
Gophers 12-6 “over” since last season.
Tech Edge: Slight to Nebraska and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.
ILLINOIS at NORTHWESTERN (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m.)
Illini only 1-4 SU and vs. line last 5 in series.
Cats 6-1-2 vs. spread last nine since late 2019, also on 18-8 “under” run since mid 2018.
Tech Edge: NU and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
FRESNO STATE at NEW MEXICO (at Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas) (FS2, 10:30 p.m.)
Lobos finally got first SU win of 2020 last week but still just 7-16 vs. spread since late 2018.
Bulldogs have won and covered last five meetings.
Tech Edge: Fresno State, based on recent trends.
SAN DIEGO STATE at BYU (ESPN2, 10:00 p.m.)
This was once a very heated series in the old WAC days.
Aztecs did win 13-3 LY when Cougs were on 5-game spread skid to end season.
But Cougs 9-1 SU, 7-2-1 vs. line TY.
Aztecs also on 24-9 “under” run since early 2018.
Tech Edge: BYU and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
NAVY at ARMY (CBS, 3:00 p.m.)
No neutral site this year!
Army had won three in a row before Mids got West Point 31-7 LY.
“Under” series deluxe...14 straight!
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.
USC at UCLA (ABC, 7:30 p.m.)
Bruins have covered 4 in a row in 2020, and are 5-3 vs. line last 8 against Trojans.
UCLA 2-0 SU and vs. line at home in 2020.
Clay Helton 6-11 vs. spread last 17 away from Coliseum.
Tech Edge: UCLA, based on recent trends.
WASHINGTON at OREGON (FOX, 4:00 p.m.)
Not long ago, Huskies were on a 12-game series losing streak before winning in 2016-17, but Ducks have bounced back with exciting wins past two years.
Huskies just 4-7 vs. line last 11 as Pac-12 visitor.
Ducks on 9-3-1 “over” run since mid 2019.
Tech Edge: Slight to Oregon and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.
CAL at WASHINGTON STATE (FS1, 10:30 p.m.)
Cal has covered last 3 meetings, though Bears are just SU 1-3 in 2020.
Into SC last Sunday night, WSU only 5-12 last 17 on board (1-1 for Rolovich).
Tech Edge: Slight to Cal, based on series trends.
UAB at RICE (ESPN3, 1:00 p.m.)
No sight of UAB lately, Blazers just 2-5 vs. line TY for Clark, who had been a spread overachiever prior.
Though UAB has won and covered handily last three years vs. Owls.
Tech Edge: Slight to UAB, based on series trends.
WAKE FOREST at LOUISVILLE (ACCN, 12:00 p.m.)
Clawson has covered last 5 and 6 of 7 this season.
If getting points, note Deacs 6-2 last 8 as dog.
Last four meetings way “over” in series, and ‘Ville 11-4 “over” run.
Tech Edge: Wake Forest especially if go, and “over” based on team and “totals” trends.
DUKE at FLORIDA STATE (ACCN, 4:00 p.m.)
FSU 2-6 vs. line TY, 5-11 last 16 as chalk.
Noles 15-29-2 overall vs. line since 2017.
Cutcliffe on 16-8 “over” run since late 2018.
Cutcliffe just 2-4 as dog TY and 4-8-1 in role since LY, but was 25-12-1 from 2013-18 as dog.
Tech Edge: Slight to Duke and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.
OKLAHOMA at WEST VIRGINIA (ABC, 12:00 p.m.)
Sooners hot with 6-0 SU and 5-1 spread mark last six TY.
WVU, however, is 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 vs. line at home in 2020.
Sooners 6-0 SU, 5-0-1 vs. line last six in series, now 8-0 SU vs. Mounties since WVU entered Big 12.
Tech Edge: Slight to OU, based on team trends.
COASTAL CAROLINA at TROY (ESPN+, 3:00 p.m.)
Troy 8-14 vs. line since LY for Chip Lindsey, also 8-3-1 “under” since late 2019.
Chants 10-0 SU, 8-1-1 vs. line TY, 4-0 vs. line away.
Tech Edge: Coastal Carolina, based on recent trends.
STANFORD at OREGON STATE (ESPNU, 10:30 p.m.)
Stanford 1-3 vs. line TY, 4-12 since last season.
Meanwhile, OSU on 13-3 spread uptick its last 16 games.
Tech Edge: OSU, based on recent trends.
TEXAS at KANSAS (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m.)
Tom Herman just 2-5-1 last eight on board this season, but KU 1-7-1 vs. line in 2020.
Tech Edge: Slight to Texas, based on team trends.
HOUSTON at MEMPHIS (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)
Tigers 1-8 vs. line TY, now on 1-11 spread skid since late 2019.
Though five straight series covers for Memphis.
Holgorsen 0-3 as dog in 2020.
Tech Edge: Slight to Houston, based on recent trends.
BOISE STATE at WYOMING (CBSSN, 6:00 p.m.)
Bohl has covered 4 of last 5 in series, and Wyo 9-4 last 13 as Laramie dog.
Broncos just 3-5 vs. spread last 8 away.
Tech Edge: Wyo, based on team and series trends.
OKLAHOMA STATE at BAYLOR (ESPNU, 7:00 p.m.)
No covers last 5 TY for OSU after Gundy was on 13-4 spread run prior.
Bears, however, 2-4-1 last six vs. line TY, though 7-2-1 as dog since LY (2-1-1 TY for Aranda).
Baylor has won and covered 4 of last 5 meetings.
OSU 10-3 “under” run.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Baylor, based on “totals” and series trends.
LOUISIANA TECH at TCU (FS1, 7:00 p.m.)
After UNT win, Skip Holtz 3-2 as dog TY, 22-10-1 in role since arriving at Ruston in 2014.
TCU 6-16-1 as home chalk since 2016.
Tech Edge: La Tech, based on team trends.
UTAH STATE at COLORADO STATE (CBSSN, 9:30 p.m.)
After Air Force loss, Utags now 1-5 SU and vs. spread TY, and 5-11 last 16 on board since early 2019.
CSU has covered last 4 in series.
Tech Edge: CSU, based on team and series trends.
UNLV at HAWAII (11:00 p.m.)
Rebs 0-5 SU and vs. line in 2019 (counts SJSU as loss), now 1-5 vs. spread last six on MW road.
UH has covered 2 of 4 at home this season as the poor Honolulu marks dating to the Norm Chow years minimized.
Tech Edge: Hawaii, based on recent trends.
AUBURN at MISSISSIPPI STATE (SECN, 7:30 p.m.)
Leach has now covered 2 in a row after dropping five straight vs. line, and 5-16 spread mark in previous 21 dating back to 2018 at WSU.
Malzahn, however, has won and covered 3 of last 4 vs. MSU.
Tigers just 1-4 vs. line last 5 away from Jordan-Hare.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.
College Football Odds Week 15: Opening Lines and Sharp Money
Patrick Everson
Miami QB D'Eriq King leads 8-1 Miami into an ACC showdown with No. 17 UNC this weekend. Despite being the No. 10-ranked team in the country, North Carolina is taking 58 percent of early bets and 74 percent of early cash.
College football odds for Week 15 are up and drawing dollars, as this COVID-wracked regular season draws closer to the finish line. Among the noteworthy games, unbeaten Cincinnati faces a key clash against Tulsa, while Michigan-Ohio State has been canceled due to COVID.
(1) Alabama at Arkansas Odds
Opening line
Arkansas +31.5, Over/Under 68.5
Why the line moved
Another game, another massive point spread in favor of the Crimson Tide. Alabama opened -31.5 at FanDuel on Monday afternoon, and the number is still there Monday night on what is surely light action, with 94 percent of tickets and 98 percent of money on the Crimson Tide. The total is stable at 68.5, with ticket count split 50/50 and 95 percent of early cash on the Under.
(11) Oklahoma at West Virginia Odds
Opening line
West Virginia +10.5, Over/Under 58.5
Why the line moved
The Sooners are already up to -13.5 Monday night at FanDuel, with 90 percent of early tickets and practically every early dollar on the spread going to Oklahoma. The total is down a point to 57.5, with 62 percent of bets on the Over, but 67 percent of money on the Under.
(7) Cincinnati at (24) Tulsa Odds
Opening line
Tulsa +12.5, Over/Under 44.5
Why the line moved
Cincinnati (8-0 SU) aims to maintain its perfect record against a 6-1 Tulsa outfit. This line initially moved down to Bearcats -10.5 at FanDuel, popped back to -12.5 and is at -11.5 Monday night, with 72 percent of tickets and 64 percent of money on Cincy. The total quickly jumped three points to 47.5 and is now 46.5, but the betting splits are quite disparate, with 89 percent of tickets on the Over, but 75 percent of money on the Under.
(16) Wisconsin at (19) Iowa Odds
Opening line
Iowa -2.5, Over/Under 44.5
Why the line moved
FanDuel made the Hawkeyes short home favorites, and those 2.5 points evaporated quickly, as this game is down to pick 'em Monday night. And that's despite 72 percent of tickets and 65 percent of money going to Iowa. The total is down to 43.5, with 88 percent of bets and almost every dollar so far on the Under.
Michigan at (4) Ohio State Odds
Opening line
Ohio State -29.5, Over/Under 66.5
Why the line moved
UPDATE 11:30 P.M. ET TUESDAY: As announced earlier today, Michigan-Ohio State was canceled due to continuing COVID issues within the Wolverines' program. That puts a dent in the Buckeyes' College Football Playoff hopes. Ohio State has played only five games and has no more on the schedule for the moment, leaving the Buckeyes a game short of the six-game minimum set by the Big Ten to to be eligible for the league title game.
Michigan lost its last eight meetings against archrival Ohio State, and the past two years, the Wolverines have been the proverbial one-legged man in a butt-kicking contest, losing 62-39 in 2018 and 56-27 in 2019. This year's Michigan squad is apparently far worse, as the point spread indicates.
The initial move at FanDuel was up a point to Buckeyes -30.5, but the line is -28.5 Monday night, with tickets and money in the 3/1 range on Ohio State. The total moved from 66.5 to 67.5, with 55 percent of tickets and 83 percent of money on the Over.
LSU at (6) Florida Odds
Opening line
Florida -22.5, Over/Under 67.5
Why the line moved
Louisiana State is having a train wreck of a season as the defending national champion, and it looks as if more derailment is likely Saturday in Gainesville. Florida is already up two points to -24.5 at FanDuel on Monday night, although the betting splits are kind of interesting: the Tigers are drawing 55 percent of tickets, while the Gators are attracting 64 percent of the money.
The total is up a point to 68.5 at FanDuel, with ticket count 2/1 and money approaching 9/1 on the Over.
(17) North Carolina at (10) Miami Odds
Opening line
Miami -4.5, Over/Under 64.5
Why the line moved
This line has bounced around through Monday night, dipping to Miami -2.5, then rebounding to -3.5 at FanDuel, where North Carolina is taking 58 percent of early bets and 74 percent of early cash. The total is up to 66.5 from 64.5, with 94 percent of bets and 67 percent of dollars on the Over.
Navy at Army Odds
Opening line
Army -5.5, Over/Under 41.5
Why the line moved
The Black Knights are up to -6.5 Monday night at FanDuel, where Army is collecting 81 percent of tickets and 96 percent of money on the spread. The total opened at just 41.5, yet is already down three points to 38.5, with 93 percent of bets/96 percent of cash on the Under.
(20) USC at UCLA Odds
Opening line
UCLA +3.5, Over/Under 62.5
Why the line moved
Southern Cal opened -3.5 at FanDuel and is down a point to -2.5 Monday night for this crosstown rivalry clash, although tickets and money are both about 2/1 on the Trojans. The total also dipped a point to 61.5 on interesting splits: ticket count is 2/1 on the Over, but money is about 3/1 on the Under.
(22) Washington at (23) Oregon Odds
Opening line
Oregon -5.5, Over/Under 54.5
Why the line moved
This line has been on the move early at FanDuel, as well, with the Ducks initially dipping to -3.5, then moving up to -4.5. Tickets are running 2/1 and money 3/1 on Oregon through Monday night. The total inched up to 55.5, but betting splits aren't yet available.