Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites.
NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 4
Thursday’s game
South Alabama @ Appalachian State (-7.5)
South Alabama (1-2)
USA lost its first two I-A games, 52-38/27-20.
Jaguars allowed 550/404 TY in the two losses.
Jaguars pounded on a I-AA team LW, 87-10.
USA has 4 starters back on offense, 3 on defense.
Jaguars have 21 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Lopez has thrown for 689 yards (7 TD’s, no INT’s).
Last three years, USA is 3-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Last four years, South Alabama is 14-18 ATS in Sun Belt games.
New coach Applewhite was 15-11 in two years at Houston (’17-’18)
South Alabama is 8-13 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.
Appalachian State (2-1)
App State threw for 424 yards in LW’s 21-19 win at East Carolina.
App State lost its other I-A game 66-20 at Clemson.
App State has 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
App State has 15 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Aguilar started 13 games last year.
Under Clark, App State is 9-15 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Clark, App State is 12-26-1 ATS as a favorite.
Under Clark, App State is 13-20-1 ATS in Sun Belt games.
Under Clark, App State is 13-17-2 ATS coming off a win.
Teams haven’t met since 2021.
App State won last four series games (2-2 ATS)
App State won last three meetings, 113-17.
Over is 3-2 in last five series games.
Friday’s games
Stanford @ Syracuse (-9)
Stanford (1-1)
Last three years, Stanford was 3-9/3-9/3-9 SU, 9-26 ATS
Cardinal has 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Stanford has 88 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Daniels started 10 games last year.
Last three years, Stanford is 4-9 ATS as a road underdog.
Last three years, Stanford is 8-20 ATS as an underdog.
Last three years, Stanford is 7-20 ATS in conference games.
Cardinal lost only I-AA game TY 34-27 at home to TCU.
Horned Frogs threw for 353 yards in that game.
Syracuse (2-0)
Syracuse won its first two games, 38-22/31-28.
Syracuse has 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Orangemen have 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB McCord started 12 games at Ohio State last year.
Last 3+ years, Syracuse is 8-4-1 ATS as a home favorite.
First two games, Syracuse threw ball for 354/381 yards.
Last 2+ years, Syracuse is 6-11 ATS in ACC games.
Ohio U ran ball for 255 yards in Orange’s 38-22 home win.
Why are these teams in the same league? (2,827 miles apart)
These teams haven’t met in this century.
Illinois @ Nebraska (-8)
Illinois (3-0)
Illinois won first two I-A games, 23-17/30-9.
Illinois has 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Illini has 77 returning starts on OL.
Junior QB Altmyer has 10 career starts.
Under Bielema, Illinois is 9-3 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Bielema is 24-16-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Bielema, Illinois is 15-12 ATS in conference games.
Both of Illinois I-A games stayed under the total.
Illinois is +8 in turnovers, +4 in I-A games.
Nebraska (3-0)
Nebraska hasn’t had a winning season since 2016.
Nebraska won its first two I-A games, 40-7/28-10.
Cornhuskers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Nebraska has 152 returning starts on OL, mostly from transfers.
Freshman QB Raiola threw fo4 469 yards in his two I-A games.
Under Rhule, Nebraska is 4-3 ATS as a home favorite (2-0 TY).
As college coach, Rhule is 15-16 ATS as a home favorite.
Last 5+ years, Cornhuskers are 6-12-1 ATS coming off a win.
In its two I-A games, Nebraska outrushed opponents, 372-72
Illinois won three of last four meetings.
Illini is 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS in last four visits to Lincoln.
Under is 8-3 in last eleven series games.
San Jose State @ Washington State (-12)
San Jose State (3-0)
Spartans are 26-19 last 4 years; coach bolted to Arizona
New coach Niumatalolo was 109-83 in 15 years at Navy.
San Jose has 3 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Spartans have only 20 starts returning on offensive line.
San Jose won its first road game 17-7 at Air Force.
San Jose held its two I-A opponents to 197/192 TY.
San Jose is 7-5/7-6/3-0 last 2+ years, thanks to +11/+11/+3 turnover ratios.
Since 2021, Spartans are 6-8 ATS in non-conference games.
Spartans lost last three bowls; their last bowl win was in 2015.
New coach Niumatalolo is 32-19 ATS as a road underdog.
Washington State (3-0)
Wazzu had emotional 24-19 win over rival Washington last week.
Trap game; Coogs visit Boise State next week.
Coogs have 6 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Wazzu has 63 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Mateer is 37-70/712 passing in two games.
Under Dickert, Wazzu is 9-5 ATS as a favorite.
Under Dickert, Wazzu is 5-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Coogs are 13-6-1 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
Coogs are 2-0 vs I-A opponents, despite giving up 491-452 TY.
These teams haven’t met since 2018.
Mountain West non-conference underdogs are 9-9 ATS.
NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 4
Saturday’s best 13 games
Florida (-6) @ Mississippi State
Florida (1-2, 0-1)
Florida lost its two I-A games, 41-17/33-20.
Last three years, Gators were 6-7/6-7/5-7.
Florida has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Gators have 80 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Mertz/frosh QB Lagway are splitting time.
Last four years, Florida is 1-9 ATS as a road favorite.
Last 3+ years, Florida is 14-25-1 ATS overall.
In his career, Napier is 19-24-1 ATS as favorite, 7-7 on road.
Under Napier, Florida is 8-9 ATS in SEC games.
In its two I-A games, Gators gave up 529/488 total yards.
Mississippi State (1-2)
Miss State lost first two I-A games, 30-23/41-17.
Miss State was outrushed 515-90 in those two games.
Bulldogs have 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Bulldogs have 67 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Shapen started 23 games at Baylor.
Since 2019, MSU is 1-10-1 ATS as a home underdog.
MSU is 4-11-1 ATS in its last sixteen SEC games.
Bulldogs are 2-8-1 ATS in last 11 games coming off a loss.
Jeff Lebby is Miss State’s 5th head coach the last eight seasons.
Lebby was offensive coordinator at Oklahoma the last 2 years.
Teams haven’t met since 2018.
Florida won three of last four series games.
Underdogs covered last five meetings.
Last three series games stayed under the total.
Houston @ Cincinnati (-3.5)
Houston (1-2)
Houston was held to 7-12 points in losses to UNLV/Oklahoma.
Cougars whacked crosstown rival Rice 33-7 last week.
Houston has 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Cougars have 118 returning starts on OL, only 30 of them at Houston.
Senior QB Smith has 20 career starts.
Houston is 10-6-1 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.
Houston is 6-10-1 ATS in its last 17 conference games.
In his career, Fritz is 23-20-1 ATS as an underdog
Cougars are 9-15 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win.
Cincinnati (2-1)
Cincinnati lost 28-27 at home to Pitt, won 27-16 at Miami OH
Bearcats were 3-9 LY, their first losing season since 2017.
Bearcats have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Bearcats have 91 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Sorsby started 7 games at Indiana last year.
Last 2+ years, Cincinnati is 5-11 ATS as a favorite.
Last 2+ years, Cincinnati is 3-7 ATS as a home favorite.
Last two years, Cincinnati was 3-13-1 ATS in conference games.
In his career, Satterfield is 24-25-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Last two weeks, Bearcats gave up 302/356 passing yards.
Cincinnati won/covered last four meetings.
Cougars are 1-5-1 ATS in last seven visits to Cincinnati
Under is 4-2 in last six series games.
Kansas @ West Virginia (-2.5)
Kansas (1-2)
Kansas lost its two I-A games, 23-17 at Illinois, 23-20 to UNLV.
Kansas outgained those opponents by 56-85 yards, were minus-3 in TO’s.
Jayhawks have 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Kansas has 130 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Daniels has 20 career starts.
In his career, Leipold is 11-19-1 ATS as road underdog.
Under Leipold, Kansas is 5-9 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Leipold, Kansas is 13-13-1 ATS in Big X games.
Under Leipold, Kansas is 9-11 ATS coming off a loss.
West Virginia (1-2)
WVU lost its two I-A games, 34-12 to Penn State, 38-34 at Pitt.
Two weeks ago, WVU gave up 306 PY to a I-AA team.
Mountaineers have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Mountaineers have 113 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Greene has 14 career starts.
Since 2020, WVU is 11-4 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Brown is 20-16-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Brown, WVU is 20-24 ATS in Big X games.
Under Brown, Mountaineers are 17-11 ATS in games coming off a loss.
West Virginia is minus-5 turnovers in its first three games.
West Virginia won eight of last nine series games.
Kansas covered its last five visits to Morgantown.
Over is 6-1 in last seven meetings.
USC (-5.5) @ Michigan
USC (2-0)
In first two games, Trojans beat LSU 27-20, Utah State 48-0.
USC gained 447/544 yards in those games.
USC has 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Trojans have 72 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Moss won his only start 42-28 LY (bowl game).
In his career, Riley is 8-17-1 as a road favorite, 2-6 at USC.
Trojans are 9-19 ATS in last 28 conference games.
In his career, Riley is 31-35-1 ATS in conference games.
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USC outgained LSU 447-421 in their 27-20 win in Las Vegas.
This is USC’s first Big 18 conference game.
Michigan (2-1)
Michigan is switching QB’s this week; junior QB Orji gets the nod
Wolverines were minus-5 in turnovers the last two weeks.
Wolverines have 2 starters back on offense, 5 on defense, a new head coach.
New defensive coordinator Martindale has a significant NFL resume.
Michigan has 53 returning starts on offensive line (none at Michigan).
Last 3+ years, Michigan is 3-1 ATS as an underdog.
Wolverines were held to 269-284 yards by Fresno/Texas.
Michigan ran for 301 yards LW but only beat Arkansas State 28-18.
Michigan is 19-8-3 ATS in its last 30 conference games.
Last 3+ years, Michigan is 21-14-3 ATS coming off a win.
These teams haven’t met since a bowl game 18 years ago.
Arkansas @ Auburn (-3)
Arkansas (2-1)
Arkansas lost 39-31 at Oklahoma State, beat UAB 37-27 LW.
Razorbacks ran ball for 232/266 yards in those two games.
Razorbacks have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Razorbacks have 67 returning starts on the offensive line;
Junior QB Green started 22 games at Boise State.
Under Pittman, Arkansas is 17-7 ATS as an underdog.
Arkansas is 10-3 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
Under Pittman, Arkansas is 19-13-2 ATS in SEC games.
Last 2+ years, Razorbacks are 3-7-1 ATS coming off a win.
Auburn (2-1)
Auburn lost 21-14 to Cal, beat New Mexico 45-19 in its I-A games.
Auburn has had three straight losing years (6-7/5-7/5-7).
Tigers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Tigers have 87 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Brown was 17-25/235 passing in his first start LW.
Since 2019, Auburn is 13-9 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Freeze is 33-24-1 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Freeze is 44-29-1 ATS in home games.
Auburn is 23-18-1 ATS in its last 42 SEC games.
Auburn won seven of last eight meetings.
Razorbacks are 5-4 ATS in last nine visits to Auburn.
Over is 9-1 in last ten series games.
Arizona State @ Texas Tech (-3)
Arizona State (3-0)
Sun Devils scored 48-30-31 points in its 3-0 SU/ATS start/
Sun Devils are +6 in turnovers, have run ball for 229.3 yards/game.
ASU has 6 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Sun Devils have 57 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Leavitt is 43-72/573 passing this year, and has also run for 155 yards.
Since 2017, ASU is 15-6-1 ATS as a road underdog.
ASU outgained first three opponents by 150 yards/game.
This is Sun Devils’ first-ever Big X game.
Arizona State is 18-13 ATS in last 31 conference games.
Texas Tech (2-1)
Texas Tech lost 37-16 at Wazzu, beat North Texas 66-21.
Last three years, Tech was 7-6/8-5/7-6.
Red Raiders have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Red Raiders have 125 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Morton started 12 games LY (10 TDs/2 INTs this year)
Under McGuire, Texas Tech is 9-5 ATS in home games.
Under McGuire, Red Raiders are 6-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Tech is throwing ball for 358.3 yards/game.
Tech is 29-34 ATS in its last 63 Big X games.
Texas Tech gave up 506 PY to a I-AA team in its opener.
These teams haven’t met since 2017.
Utah (-1) @ Oklahoma State
Utah (3-0, 1-0)
Utah beat Baylor 23-12, Utah State 38-21 in its I-A games.
Utes have 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Utah has 60 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Rising (knee) DNP LY; he’s got 23 career starts.
Under Whittingham, Utah is 80-72-3 ATS as favorite.
Under Whittingham, Utah is 28-31-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Utes are 6-11 ATS in its last 17 road games.
Since 2016, Utes are 45-26 ATS in conference games.
Oklahoma State (3-0)
OSU scored 39-45 points in its two I-A wins.
Cowboys passed for 326/431 yards in those games.
Cowboys have 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Cowboys have 214 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Bowman is in his 7th college season (13 starts LY)
Under Gundy, OSU is 66-47-5 ATS at home.
Since 2016, Cowboys are 8-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Since 2021, Cowboys are 19-10 ATS coming off a win
Oklahoma State is 18-10 ATS in its last 28 Big X games.
These teams haven’t met in this century.
TCU (-3) @ SMU
TCU (2-1)
TCU blew a 28-7 lead LW, in a 35-34 home loss to Central Florida.
UCF ran ball for 289 yards, outgained TCU 519-460.
TCU has 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Horned Frogs have 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Hoover started six games last year.
TCU won its only road game, 34-27 (-7.5) at Stanford.
Under Dykes, TCU is 11-8-1 ATS as a favorite.
In his career, Dykes is 13-18-1 ATS as road favorite.
Horned Frogs are 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite.
In its two I-A games, TCU threw ball for 353/402 yards.
SMU (2-1)
SMU won 29-24 at Nevada, lost 18-15 to BYU in its I-A games.
This is a non-league game but a local rivalry.
Mustangs have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Mustangs have 120 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Jennings started twice LY.
Under Lashlee, SMU is 2-6 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2017, Mustangs are 5-3 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Lashlee, SMU is 2-5 ATS coming off a loss.
Mustangs kicked five FG”s, didn’t score TD in LW’s loss.
TCU won nine of last eleven series games.
Horned Frogs won/covered their last four visits to SMU.
Over is 11-4 in last fifteen meetings.
Tennessee (-7) @ Oklahoma
Tennessee (3-0)
Tennessee won 51-10/71-0 in its first two I-A games.
Last 2+ years, Vols are 23-6 SU/19-9 ATS
Tennessee has 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Vols have 112 returning starts on the offensive line;
Frosh QB Iamaleava had one start, was MVP of Citrus Bowl.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 18-8 ATS as a favorite.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 15-12 ATS in games coming off a win.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 11-13 ATS in SEC games.
Vols outgained their first two I-A foes, 1,200-255.
Heupel played QB at Oklahoma, was later their OC.
Oklahoma (3-0)
Oklahoma won first three games, 51-3/16-12/34-19.
Since 2015, Sooners are 97-24 SU (19-10 under Venables)
Oklahoma has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Sooners have 114 returning starts on the offensive line.
QB Gabriel bolted to Oregon; soph QB is 54-86/484 passing.
This is Oklahoma’s first-ever SEC game.
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 1-1 ATS as an underdog.
Under Venables, Sooners are 8-4 ATS at home.
Oklahoma is already +8 in turnovers this year.
Under Venables, Sooners are 7-10-1 ATS in conference games.
These teams haven’t met since 2015.
Iowa (-2.5) @ Minnesota
Iowa (2-1)
Iowa lost 20-19 to Iowa State, beat Troy 38-21 in its I-A games.
Iowa blew 13-0 halftime lead in the loss to the Cyclones.
Hawkeyes have 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Hawkeyes have 154 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB McNamara has 21 career starts.
Since 2020, Hawkeyes are 6-2 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Ferentz is 31-22-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Since 2015, Iowa is 44-31-2 ATS coming off a win.
Hawkeyes are 20-16-1 ATS in their last 37 conference games.
Minnesota (2-1)
Minnesota lost 19-17 to North Carolina, blanked Nevada 27-0.
Gophers were 6-7 last year, their worst season since 2017.
Gophers have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Minnesota has 70 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Brosmer started 36 games at I-AA New Hampshire.
Under Fleck, Minnesota is 7-7-2 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Fleck is 9-12-2 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Fleck, Minnesota is 29-30-2 ATS in conference games.
Minnesota allowed only 252-172 TY in its I-A games.
Iowa is 8-1 SU/6-2-1 ATS in last nine meetings.
Hawkeyes covered their last four visits to the Twin Cities.
Under is 6-2 in last eight series games.
Baylor @ Colorado (-1.5)
Baylor (2-1)
Baylor lost 23-12 at Utah, beat Air Force 31-3 in its I-A games.
Bears held those teams to 292-218 TY
Baylor has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Bears have 97 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Finn started 32 games at Toledo.
Under Aranda, Baylor is 9-6 ATS as road underdogs.
Under Aranda, Bears are 13-10 ATS coming off a win.
Under Aranda, Baylor is 18-20 ATS in conference games.
Last 2+ years, Baylor is +1 in turnovers (+31 from 2019-21)
Colorado (2-1)
Colorado lost 28-10 at Nebraska, won 28-9 at Colorado State.
Sanders is 2-3 ATS as a favorite with Colorado.
Tigers have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Tigers have 100 returning starts on offensive line, and a new OL coach.
QB Sanders started 11 games LY, after playing multiple years at I-AA Jackson State.
Since 2017, Colorado is 6-11 ATS as a home favorite.
Last two years, Buffs were 7-11 ATS in conference games.
Colorado is 1-5 ATS in last six games coming off a win.
In three games, Buffs ran ball 109 times for only 185 yards.
These teams haven’t met since 2010.
Kansas State (-6.5) @ BYU
Kansas State (3-0)
K-State beat Tulane 34-27, Arizona 31-7 in first two I-A games.
Wildcats ran ball for 215-235 yards in those games.
Wildcats have 4 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Wildcats have 73 returning starts on OL, only 36 at I-A level.
Frosh QB Johnson threw for 490 yards, ran for 187 more in three games.
Last 2+ years, K-State is 1-5 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Klieman, Wildcats are 21-12 ATS as a favorite.
Under Klieman, K-State is 31-16 ATS in Big X games.
Wildcats are 23-16 ATS in last 39 games coming off a win.
BYU (3-0)
BYU won 18-15 at SMU, 34-14 at Wyoming in its I-A games.
BYU was 5-7 LY, after five straight winning seasons.
Cougars have 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Broncos have 88 starts returning on the offensive line.
Senior QB Bohanon started 19 games at Baylor/South Florida
This is BYU’s first Big X game.
Under Sitake, BYU is 7-6-1 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, coach Sitake is 21-14-1 ATS as an underdog.
Last 2+ years, BYU is 6-8 ATS coming off a win.
These teams haven’t met in this century.
Purdue @ Oregon State (-4.5)
Purdue (1-0)
Purdue lost its only I-A game 66-7 to Notre Dame last week.
Purdue was outgained 578-162; Notre Dame ran for 362 yards.
Boilermakers have 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Purdue has 165 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Card has 16 career starts.
Last 10+ years, Purdue is 25-10 ATS as a road underdog.
Last 2+ years, Boilers are 2-6 ATS in non-conference games.
Purdue was 4-8 last year, its 4th losing season in six years.
Purdue is 8-11 ATS in last 19 games coming off a loss.
Oregon State (2-1)
Last week, OSU got whacked 49-14 by rival Oregon.
Last two years, Beavers were 18-8 SU, but they’ve been gutted.
Oregon State has 4 starters back on offense, 1 on defense.
Beavers have 93 returning starts on OL, from various places.
Junior QB McCoy started 23 games at I-AA Idaho.
Last three years, Oregon State is 13-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Beavers are 14-7 ATS in last 21 non-league games.
Beavers are 2-5 ATS in last seven games coming off a loss.
Oregon State won 21-0 at San Diego State, in its other I-A game
Three years ago, Oregon State (+7) lost 30-21 at Purdue.