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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 5
Thursday’s game
Army (-13.5) @ Temple
Army (3-0)
Army won its first two I-A games, 24-7 at FIU, 37-14 over Rice
Army has 8 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
Black Knights have 85 starts back on offensive line.
Senior QB Daily started 10 games last year.
Last four years, Army was 2-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Last three years, Army is 7-10 ATS as a favorite overall.
Army is 8-1-1 ATS in last ten games coming off a win.
In his career, Monken is 5-8 ATS as a road favorite.
Temple (1-3)
Temple is 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS so far this year (2-0 ATS at home)
Owls have 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Owls have 46 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Simon started 2 games at Rutgers in 2022.
Under Drayton, Temple is 7-5 ATS as home underdogs.
Under Drayton, Owls are 10-14 ATS as an underdog overall.
Under Drayton, Temple is 7-10 ATS in non-conference games.
Last five years, Temple is 9-9 ATS coming off a win.
These teams haven’t met since 2017
Army won last two meetings, 31-28/28-13
Army covered three of last four visits to Temple.
Over is 7-2 in last nine series games.
Friday’s games
Virginia Tech @ Miami (-19)
Virginia Tech (2-2)
Tech scored 31-37 points in its wins, 27-23 in losses.
Hokies’ losses: 34-27 at Vandy, 26-23 at home to Rutgers.
Hokies have 11 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
Cavaliers have 122 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Drones started 11 games last year.
Under Pry, Tech is 3-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Since 2016, Tech is 7-14 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Pry, Hokies are 9-6 ATS in ACC games.
Under Pry, Hokies are 8-7 ATS coming off a loss.
Over is 3-1 in Tech games this season.
Miami FL (4-0)
Miami won its I-AA games this year, by 24-62-35 points.
Hurricanes scored 51 ppg in those games.
Miami has 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Hurricanes have 121 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Ward has 25 career starts; he bolted from Washington State.
Under Cristobal, Hurricanes are 3-7 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Cristobal is 16-29-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Cristobal, Miami is 4-12 ATS in ACC games.
Under Cristobal, Miami is 4-10 ATS coming off a win.
Over is 2-0-1 in Miami games this season.
Miami won seven of last nine series games.
Hokies are 2-4 ATS in last six visits to Miami.
Under is 6-3 in last nine series games.
Washington @ Rutgers (-2.5)
Washington (3-1, 1-0)
Washington is 3-1; only loss 24-19 vs Wazzu on Seahawks’ field.
New coach Fisch was at Arizona; new DC is Steve Belichick.
Huskies have 2 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Huskies have 36 returning starts on offensive line, none of them here.
Senior QB Rogers started 40 games at Mississippi State.
Since 2018, Washington is 4-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Since 2018, Huskies are 19-33 ATS in conference games.
In his career, Fisch is 8-5 ATS as a road underdog.
Last 2+ years, Washington is 13-12-1 ATS coming off a win.
Under is 3-0 in their games this season.
Rutgers (3-0)
Rutgers won its two I-A games, 49-17 vs Akron, 26-23 at Va Tech.
In those games, Scarlet Knights gained 515/422 total yards.
Scarlet Knights have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
Rutgers has 123 starts back on offensive line.
soph QB started 12 games at Minnesota.
Since 2021, Scarlet Knights are 9-1 ATS as home favorites.
In his college career, Schiano is 24-21 ATS as home favorite.
Last three years, Rutgers was 10-15-2 ATS in conference games.
Rutgers is 6-0-2 ATS in last eight games coming off a win.
Rutgers is 1-10 SU/4-7 ATS in last 11 conference openers.
These schools are in same league, despite being 2,854 miles apart.
These teams haven’t met since 2017.
NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 5
Saturday’s best 13 games
Kentucky @ Ole Miss (-17)
Kentucky (2-2, 0-2)
Kentucky lost first two SEC games, 31-6/13-12 to South Carolina/Georgia
Kentucky won its other two I-A games, 31-0/41-6.
Wildcats have 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
Wildcats have 156 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Vandagriff was a backup at Georgia.
Last three years, Kentucky was 5-3 ATS as road underdogs.
Under Stoops, Kentucky is 20-19-1 ATS as road underdogs.
Kentucky is 14-12 ATS in last 26 SEC games.
Last 3+ years, Wildcats are 14-10 ATS coming off a win.
In its two losses, Kentucky was only 20-45/158 passing.
Ole Miss (4-0)
Ole Miss has three I-A wins: 52-3/40-6/52-13.
In their last 17 games, Rebels are +15 in turnovers.
Rebels have 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
Rebels have 222 returning starts on offensive line (VERY experienced).
Junior QB Dart has started 25 games.
Under Kiffin, Ole Miss is 11-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Kiffin is 35-29-3 ATS as a home favorite.
Last 3+ years, Rebels are 19-11-2 ATS coming off a win.
Under Kiffin, Ole Miss is 14-17-2 ATS in SEC games.
Under is 3-0 in Ole Miss games this season.
Ole Miss won three in row, seven of last nine series games.
Wildcats are 0-4 SU/2-2 ATS in last six visits to Oxford.
Over is 3-2 in last five meetings.
Oklahoma State @ Kansas State (-4.5)
Oklahoma State (3-1, 0-1)
OSU scored 39-45 points in its two I-A wins.
Cowboys gave up 232+ rushing yards in 2 of 3 I-A games.
Cowboys have 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Cowboys have 214 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Bowman is in his 7th college season (13 starts LY)
Under Gundy, OSU is 23-20 ATS as a road underdog.
OSU is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games as an underdog.
Cowboys are 17-9-1 ATS in last 27 games coming off a loss.
Oklahoma State is 18-11 ATS in its last 29 Big X games.
Cowboys scored 39-45 points in their two I-A wins.
Kansas State (3-1, 1-1)
K-State outgained BYU 367-241 LW, but lost 38-9 in Provo.
Wildcats ran ball for 215-235-228 yards in their I-A games.
Wildcats have 4 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Wildcats have 73 returning starts on OL, only 36 at I-A level.
Frosh QB Johnson threw for 620 yards, ran for 261 more in four games.
Last 2+ years, K-State is 12-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Klieman, Wildcats are 21-13 ATS as a favorite.
Under Klieman, K-State is 31-17 ATS in Big X games.
Wildcats are 13-4 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.
Oklahoma State won four of last five meetings.
OSU is 2-4 SU/1-5 ATS in last six visits to Manhattan.
Under is 5-1 in last six meetings.
Navy (-3.5) @ UAB
Navy (3-0, 2-0)
Navy won its first two I-A games, 38-11/56-44.
Middies ran ball for 297/361 yards in those games.
Navy has 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Middies have 51 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Horvath has run ball for 386 yards, thrown for 412.
Since 2019, Navy is 5-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Last 2+ years, Navy is 3-6 ATS overall as a favorite.
Middies are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games.
Navy is 10-3 ATS in last 13 games coming off a win.
LW, Navy gave up 659 yards to Memphis: 274 rushing, 385 passing
Alabama-Birmingham (1-2)
UAB lost its first two I-A games, 32-6/37-27.
Blazers gave up 209-266 rushing yards in those games.
UAB has 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Blazers have 50 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Zeno has started 11 games LY.
Since 2019, UAB is 1-3 ATS as a home underdog.
Last two years, UAB is 3-7 ATS as an underdog overall.
Last two years, Blazers were 6-10 ATS in conference games.
UAB is 12-6 ATS in last 18 games coming off a loss.
UAB coach Dilfer is 3-5 ATS as an underdog.
Navy (+2.5) beat the Blazers 31-6 at home last year.
Middies ran for 269 yards, outgained UAB 363-321.
South Florida @ Tulane (-6.5)
South Florida (2-2)
USF lost 42-16 at Alabama, 50-15 at home to Miami.
Bulls ran for 369 yards in a 49-24 win at Southern Miss.
Bulls have 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
USF has 58 returning starts on offensive line.
Redshirt frosh QB Brown has started 15 games.
USF is 7-3 ATS last 10 games as a road underdog.
Last three years, Bulls are 13-11 ATS in conference games.
Under Golesh, USF is 4-3 ATS coming off a loss.
Last two games, Bulls gave up 397/404 passing yards.
USF is +6 in turnovers this season.
Tulane (2-2)
Green Wave gave up 34-34-33 points vs I-A opponents.
Tulane’s two losses were to K-State/Oklahoma, Big X teams.
Green Wave has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Green Wave has 143 returning starts on offensive line.
Redshirt frosh QB Mensah has thrown for 796 yards, 6 TD’s.
Last five years, Tulane is 18-9 ATS as a home favorite.
Tulane is 26-14 ATS in last 40 games as a favorite.
Green Wave is 25-16-1 ATS in last 42 conference games.
New coach Sumrall is 6-7 ATS as a home favorite.
Tulane is 14-11 ATS in last 25 games coming off a win.
Tulane won/covered last three series games.
Teams split their last two meetings in New Orleans.
Arkansas vs Texas A&M (-4) (@ Arlington, TX)
Arkansas (3-1)
Arkansas is 2-1 vs I-A teams, scoring 31-37-24 points.
Razorbacks ran ball for 227 yards/game in those games.
Razorbacks have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Razorbacks have 67 returning starts on the offensive line;
Junior QB Green started 22 games at Boise State.
Under Pittman, Arkansas is 19-7 ATS as an underdog.
Arkansas is 12-3 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog.
Under Pittman, Arkansas is 20-13-2 ATS in SEC games.
Last 2+ years, Razorbacks are 5-7-1 ATS coming off a win.
Since 2018, Arkansas is 4-2-1 ATS on neutral fields.
Texas A&M (3-1)
A&M won last two I-A games, running for 310-235 yards.
Aggies have won three in row since a 23-13 loss to Notre Dame.
Aggies have 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
A&M has 112 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Weigman has 8 career starts.
A&M is 24-23-3 ATS in its last 50 SEC games.
In his career, new HC Elko is 9-7 ATS as a favorite.
Aggies are 4-6-3 ATS in last 13 games going off a win.
Last two games, A&M ran ball for 310-235 yards.
Texas A&M won 11 of last 12 series games.
Razorbacks are 4-1-1 ATS in last six meetings.
Under is 4-2 in last six series games.
TCU @ Kansas (-2)
TCU (2-2)
TCU lost its last two games, 35-34/66-42.
TCU gave up 289-238 rushing yards in those games.
TCU has 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Horned Frogs have 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Hoover started six games last year.
TCU won its only true road game, 34-27 (-7.5) at Stanford.
TCU is 3-11 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog.
In his career, Dykes is 21-22 ATS as road underdog.
Horned Frogs gained 457-460-480 TY in their I-A games.
Over is 3-0 in their I-A games this season.
Kansas (1-3)
Kansas lost its three I-A games, by 6-3-4 points.
Kansas ran for 247 yards in LW’s 32-28 loss at West Virginia.
Jayhawks have 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Kansas has 130 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Daniels has 20 career starts.
In his career, Leipold is 19-9-1 ATS as home favorite.
Under Leipold, Kansas is 6-3 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Leipold, Kansas is 13-14-1 ATS in Big X games.
Under Leipold, Kansas is 9-12 ATS coming off a loss.
TCU won four in row, 10 of last 11 series games.
Horned Frogs are 5-1 SU/1-4-1 ATS in last six visits to Lawrence.
Over is 3-1-1 in last five meetings.
Colorado @ Central Florida (-14.5)
Colorado (3-1, 1-0)
Colorado won its last two games. 28-9/38-31 (OT)
Colorado was held to 260 TY in only loss, 28-10 at Nebraska.
Tigers have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Tigers have 100 returning starts on offensive line, and a new OL coach.
QB Sanders started 11 games LY, after playing multiple years at I-AA Jackson State.
Sanders is 6-3 ATS as an underdog with Colorado, 3-3 on road.
Since 2019, Colorado is 7-16 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Sanders, Buffs are 6-4 ATS in conference games.
Colorado is 2-5 ATS in last seven games coming off a win.
Colorado is 3-0 when it throws for 300+ yards.
Central Florida (3-0)
UCF won last game 35-34 at TCU; they trailed 28-7 in third quarter.
Knights scored 45-35 points in their two I-A wins.
Knights have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
UCF has 58 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Jefferson started 38 games at Arkansas.
UCF is 7-5-1 ATS last 13 games as a home favorite.
In his career, Malzahn is 31-35-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Malzahn, Knights are 11-15-1 ATS in conference games.
UCF is 14-17 ATS in last 31 games coming off a win.
UCF allowed 407 passing yards in the win at TCU.
These teams haven’t met in this century.
Oklahoma (-2.5) @ Auburn
Oklahoma (3-1, 0-1)
Oklahoma was held to 222 yards in 25-15 loss to Tennessee LW.
Since 2015, Sooners are 97-25 SU (19-11 under Venables)
Oklahoma has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Sooners have 114 returning starts on the offensive line.
They’re switching to freshman QB Hawkins (14-23/152 passing LW)
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 3-6-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Since 2017, Oklahoma is 9-17-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Venables, Sooners are 7-11-1 ATS in conference games.
Oklahoma is already +7 in turnovers this year.
Since 2018, Oklahoma is 8-6 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Auburn (2-2, 0-1)
Auburn was held to 14 points in both losses (21-14 Cal/24-14 Arkansas)
Auburn has had three straight losing years (6-7/5-7/5-7).
Tigers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Tigers have 87 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Brown is 27-43/403 passing in his first two starts.
Since 2016, Auburn is 10-6 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Freeze is 11-5 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Freeze, Auburn is 5-4 ATS in SEC games.
Last three years, Tigers are 8-10 ATS coming off a loss.
In its two losses, Auburn was minus-5/minus-3 in turnovers.
Teams haven’t met since a bowl game eight years ago.
Georgia (-2) @ Alabama
Georgia (3-0, 1-0)
Georgia beat Clemson 34-3, Kentucky 13-12 in its I-A wins.
Dawgs allowed 188-284 total yards in those games.
Dawgs have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Georgia has 87 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Beck started 14 games LY.
Georgia is 3-6 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite.
Georgia is 4-6 ATS in its last ten SEC games.
Last 2+ years, Dawgs are 9-13-2 ATS as a favorite.
Georgia is 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 games coming off a win.
Georgia was held to 262 TY in the 13-12 win at Kentucky.
Alabama (3-0)
Alabama won its first three games, by 63-26-32 points
Crimson Tide is averaging 55.7 ppg.
Alabama has 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Crimson Tide has 60 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Milroe has started 14 games.
Alabama is home underdog for first time since 2007.
In his career, DeBoer is 4-1 ATS as an underdog.
Alabama is 9-6-1 ATS in its last 16 SEC games.
Alabama gave up 206 RY vs USF, was minus-3 in turnovers, still won 42-16.
Alabama is 11-4 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.
Alabama won eight of last nine series games.
This is only Dawgs’ second visit to Alabama since 2007.
Over is 6-4 in last ten meetings.
Florida State @ SMU (-6.5)
Florida State (1-3, 1-2)
Florida State got their first win LW, 14-9 at home over Cal.
Last three games, FSU was held to 13-12-14 points.
FSU has 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Seminoles have 190 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Uiagalelei has 41 career starts, 28 of them at Clemson.
Seminoles was outgained 410-284 by Cal; Cal threw for 303 yards.
Florida State was held under 300 TY in all four games.
Under Norvell, FSU is 4-5-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Under is 4-0 in Seminole games this season.
Under Norvell, Seminoles are 17-11-1 ATS coming off a win.
SMU (3-1)
SMU beat TCU 66-42 LW, after losing 18-15 to BYU.
This is SMU’s first game in the ACC.
Mustangs have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Mustangs have 120 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Jennings started twice LY.
Under Lashlee, SMU is 6-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Mustangs are 17-9 ATS in last 26 games as a home favorite.
Under Lashlee, SMU is 10-7 ATS in conference games.
Mustangs are 22-25 ATS in last 47 games coming off a win.
Last week, SMU scored two defensive TD’s, ran punt back for a TD.
These teams haven’t met in this century.
Cincinnati @ Texas Tech (-2.5)
Cincinnati (3-1, 1-0)
Cincinnati gave up 300+ PY in two of their three I-A games.
Bearcats were 3-9 LY, their first losing season since 2017.
Bearcats have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Bearcats have 91 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Sorsby started 7 games at Indiana last year.
Since 2020, Cincinnati is 3-4 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Satterfield is 11-15-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Last 2+ years, Cincinnati is 4-13-1 ATS in conference games.
Bearcats are 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 games coming off a win.
Under is 3-0 in Cincinnati’s I-A games this year.
Texas Tech (3-1, 1-0)
Texas Tech scored 30+ points in its wins, 16 in its loss (@ Wazzu)
Last three years, Tech was 7-6/8-5/7-6.
Red Raiders have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Red Raiders have 125 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Morton started 12 games LY (12 TDs/2 INTs this year)
Under McGuire, Texas Tech is 10-5 ATS in home games.
Under McGuire, Red Raiders are 7-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Tech is throwing ball for 299.3 yards/game vs I-A foes.
Tech is 30-34 ATS in its last 64 Big X games.
Texas Tech gave up 506 PY to a I-AA team in its opener.
These teams haven’t met in this century.
Washington State @ Boise State (-7.5)
Washington State (4-0)
Wazzu pulled out wild 54-52 win over San Jose State last week.
Week before, Coogs had emotional 24-19 win over rival Washington.
Coogs have 6 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Wazzu has 63 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Mateer is 63-116/1,102 passing in four games.
Wazzu is 6-4-1 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog.
Under Dickert, Wazzu is 9-5 ATS as an underdog.
Coogs are 13-7-1 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.
Coogs gave up 449+ TY in all four games this season.
In its three I-A games, Wazzu gave up 348 passing yards/game.
Boise State (2-1)
Broncos fired their coach LY after a 5-5 start, won 4 of last 5 games.
Boise beat Ga Southern 56-45, lost 37-34 at Oregon in its I-A games.
Boise has 6 starters back on offense, all 11 on defense.
Broncos have 66 starts returning on the offensive line.
Soph QB Madsen (132 pass attempts LY) is the ‘QB.
Last two years, Boise was 8-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Broncos ran for 371-221 yards in their two I-A games.
LW, Boise crushed a I-AA team; they had a bye week before that.
Broncos are 8-13-1 ATS in last 22 non-conference games.
Boise is 12-22-1 ATS in last 35 games coming off a win.
These teams haven’t met since 2017.
Wazzu won five of last six series games.
Arizona @ Utah (-11)
Arizona (2-1, 0-1)
Arizona beat New Mexico 61-39/lost 31-7 at K-State in its I-A games.
Wildcats gave up 211-235 rushing yards in those two games.
Arizona has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
Wildcats have 86 starts back on offensive line.
Soph QB Fifita started nine games last year.
Last 2+ years, Arizona is 6-3 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Brennan is 16-13 ATS as a road underdog.
Wildcats are 16-12 ATS in last 28 conference games.
In his career, Brennan is 32-23-1 ATS in conference games.
Arizona is 8-2 ATS in last 10 games coming off a loss.
Utah (4-0, 2-0)
Utah allowed 17.3 ppg in winning its three I-A games.
Last two weeks, Utes gained 460-456 TY in pair of road wins.
Utes have 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Utah has 60 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Rising (knee) DNP LY; he’s got 23 career starts.
Utah is 25-11 ATS last 36 games as a home favorite.
Utah is 25-17 ATS in last 42 games coming off a win.
In its three I-A games, Utes gave up 297.7 yards/game
Since 2016, Utes are 45-27 ATS in conference games.
Utah won six of last seven meetings.
Arizona is 0-3 SU/ATS in its last three visits to Salt Lake City.
Under is 4-2 in last six series games.
